¶ Intro
Regarding that sideways action, I wanted to point out, you know, one of the primary ingredients is is the fact that whales are doing very little.
This is just the total.
Amount of whale transactions, Tony. So we're looking at the amount of one hundred k plus transactions happening per day or one million dollar plus transactions happening per day. And this is just the past six months. And you can see, I mean, the pattern is very obvious.
They're both just declining like crazy.
Because hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward, and joining me today is Brian from Sentiment, and as you all know, we're going to do a deep dive into the metrics or Bitcoin and all coins, looking at sentiment and much more to get an understanding of where the market's at and where it may go next.
Brian, great to see you. Good to see you, Tony.
Crazy times in the markets obviously, and as we were but speaking about right before we started this call, you know, the best thing we can do is except that we are on the outside and we know very little about the macroeconomic situation going on right now.
Yeah, that's a great point.
I think you almost have to throw the charts out the window because President Trump or some news can break and it can move the markets in one direction the other and throughout your models. Right, not to say that you get rid of those things entirely, it's just there's so much uncertainty, Brian, like you kind of have to wait it out.
Yeah, i'd say, I mean, there are definitely mini swings that are still being caused by crypto sentiment, and you know, whales doing this or that. But you have to take
¶ Trump Iran impact on markets
everything that's going on on the metric side with a bit of a grain of salt. I say that as someone who still finds our own data very valuable. It's just when you've got something that's impacting the S and P five hundred, therefore crypto on a daily basis, it's just going to take precedent until we get some more
clarity on this entire situation. How much of it is fabricated or manufactured by Trump in the US, how much is legitimate and this is a obviously it's a very real war, but how much of it is a deliberate decision to make this continue to stretch out and go as long as it needs to go.
Yeah, for sure, and I'm personally not buying or doing anything right now because I'm gonna wait for the dust to settle a bit. I know there's some sort of deadline today for Iran to open up the straight and look. Trump put out a tweet today which is pretty wild, and I'm like, okay, I'm not even gonna touch the markets.
This is too crazy. Yeah.
Like I said right before the call, I've got a queued up and maybe we can just read the wording because it just was posted about four hours ago. Most of you may not have seen it yet, but here he said on truth Social that a whole civilization will die tonight and never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. Just a quick pause, just so people understand. He isn't communicating this to the American people. He is communicating this directly
to Iran. And this is no matter what side of the political spectrum Iran. When he's posting things on truth social about how you know he has to do this or it's a shame that.
Iran won't capitulate.
He isn't telling like his Republican or Democratic or anyone who's in the US followers. He's trying to communicate through his social media as a negotiation tactic for the other side to listen to and go hmm. I guess he's serious. We should listen now and cave to whatever his demands are. And the latest demands were, of course, to open the straight up moves, which they have a deadline to do today.
I don't know the exact timing, but I know it's in the next few hours from the time of this recording. We've seen it before with tariffs, where he is communicating with China or he's communicating with a European country in order to get what he wants to pass, and I think this is the same situation and it's going to be very interesting. What I think will happen most likely
is something gets pushed back. There will be some minor attacks of some type, but it won't be to the extent of which he finishes this post on which I'll read really quick. However, now that we have complete and total regime change where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen.
Who knows all CAFs. We will find out tonight.
One of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. Forty seven years of extra or corruption and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran. So you know, even that last sentence, he's trying to separate. You know, hey, I still respect the people there. It's just your leaders who don't want to listen to what I am demanding. So what's your take on all that, Tony?
Yeah, I know I agree with you, Like, obviously this is like part of his negotiation tactic and so forth. But I think the big takeaway for folks is when you do something like this publicly, it affects markets. It puts fear, uncertainty, doubt, all those things out there. And this is where we find ourselves as investors looking at the charts and so forth. That while look like, you know, he clearly surmised it well that he's not putting this out here for the American people, but it's for you know,
the folks in Iran or the government. And but this type of stuff does not help us as investors.
Yeah, uncertainty is usually the the worst ingredient or the most bearish ingredient for markets. I talk about it on our This Week in Crypto Show on our YouTube channel
with our founder Maxim. Sometimes bad news is the second worst outcome, and unknown news is the worst outcome because when it's completely unknown whether something incredibly good or incredibly bad is about to happen, you've got people just sitting on the sidelines, stagnating, doing nothing, and then volume drives up and the and markets tend to decline as a result.
If it's bad news.
You've got shorters that jump in trying to take advantage, You've got longers trying to buy the dip, and there's at.
Least utility in crypto.
As weird as that sounds, you know, you think about the tariffs. The worst moment was the beginning of April of twenty twenty five, when you had the big board of all the different countries and what percentages they're going to get their tariffs on. And once it was clarified and the tariffs actually went into effect the following week,
markets actually started getting better. The news was still bad, the tariffs existed, but markets started to climb because at least people knew what to expect and the dust had settled. Whether it was good or bad, depending on your perspective on these tariffs.
Yeah, absolutely, and my hope is that there's some sort of resolution soon, like you mentioned earlier, possibly an extension, and we get some relief. So maybe we could take a look at sentiment around bitcoin and different crypto assets
¶ Bitcoin analysis
and how people are feeling right now.
Absolutely so, sentiment is kind of just hovering in the middle. I can zoom into just the last months. We don't need to go back six months here, So it's gone back and forth as you would expect, especially around the end of March when we were threatening to go below sixty five. I think we did actually technically go to like sixty four something at some point, and sentiment has mostly just followed the trend of where prices are going.
Yes, they still.
Overreact or underreact to you know, specific breaking news or an air strike that was particularly impactful, but you can see the positive spikes here. The two most positive sentiment days of March happened right at those local tops, and that's not an accident. You want to take profit when people are getting euphoric, especially if it's just related to you know, prices going above seventy three K or even getting above seventy five K.
Here on March sixteenth.
These are the times to take profit, and these are the times where you can confidently buy because the probability is much higher that we will rebound when everyone is negative, you know, saying bitcoin is dead, crypto is going to zero, stuff like that. So you can see the last local top happened when we got just above seventy k yesterday and now it's back in the middle of the road area because we're waiting on what's going to happen with Trump, Andy Ron's deadline.
Yeah, it's the market's been really where too. It's you know, you look at bitcoins, charge just been chopping sideways, right, it's really boring. I'm surprised it, but maybe I don't know. It's priced in some of the news already. But if something more severe happens, you know, we could see a dump to further down, but who knows at this.
Yeah, and regarding that sideways action, I wanted to point out, you know, one of the primary ingredients is is the fact that whales are doing very little.
Uh.
This is just the total amount of whale transactions Tony. So we're looking at the amount of one hundred k plus transactions happen per day or one million dollar plus transactions happening per day. And this is just the past six months, and you can see, I mean, the pattern is very obvious. They're both just declining like crazy because even whales aren't quite sure what to make of everything.
You can see this sharp decline really happened right around the beginning of March when the war really became a war. And I don't see this changing until there's a clear path to what's next in terms of the war resolving or the war getting worse. But this negotiation tactic thing through through social you know, Iran is of course using
social media as well releasing videos. Same on both sides, they're both communicating to the people, but really as a negotiation tactic for the other sides, world leaders to see.
And just the.
Overall utility of crypto is drying up on both the whale side as well as just from an overall active address and network growth side. You can see these trend lines, orange being the amount of unique addresses interacting on a daily basis, Purple being the amount of new addresses being created on a daily basis. Like they've just significantly dropped seven hundred and thirty k or so active addresses per day six months ago versus six nine k today, that's
a pretty steep drop. So that's that's really one of the main explanations for the sideways movement is there really isn't going to be much volatility when there's less and less trading, less and less transferring, and less and less new wallet's being created every single day.
Yeah, that is so telling. And boy, maybe it's it's the whales are not doing anything and they're just sitting on a sideline for the most part. That's very telling that this situation maybe they and then may know something right and like this thing could escalate and get worse.
Let's hold off exactly.
And I don't think that just because someone has thousands of bitcoin or hundreds of bitcoin and it doesn't mean that they're in the inner circle and know what's next for Trump. Many of them are just like us and they're completely in the dark and reading the news on X and going, well, I don't know what's going to happen. I just have to sit on my on my coins
right now. I don't want to panic sell and I don't want to you know, buy any dips knowing that I could be dead wrong because of how unpredictable the world is right now. And you can see with the bright green line here that represents the ten to ten k BTC wallets and they're collective supply held. This is like one of the most sideways they've looked for months.
Usually there's at least a little bit of up and down movement, but you know, once we got into the third week of March, we kind of declined, and then at the end of March it's barely moved. And what's interesting is retail, on the other hand, is just defiantly buying dips. Like even now, since January twentieth, we go back almost three months, they're continuing to climb and accumulate more and more, and of course they don't own a big chunk, they only own a little over a quarter
percent of the supply. But what this redline represents is their overall call it optimism. I know we're already we looked at sentiment overall in terms of social media commentary, but in terms of what the actual data indicates with their bags, they're still confident that the sixty k's that we're in right now is low and we're eventually going to return back to one hundred k, and they're viewing all of this as buy into the fear, as a buy into the fear situation that they can take advantage of.
Man telling Brian that sideways right, that line flat is flat?
Yeah, I mean, how much can it really move when the whale transactions itself are so low. It's just it's pretty shocking that even those key stakeholders can't really find an opportunity to take advantage of where we're at right now. So on a note, what does the MBRV look like for bitcoin? Yeah, right now, it's good news. We're still in a short term a slight deficit when it's normally
a zero sum game. So wallets that have been active in the past thirty days, pardon me, are down about two percent, and the wallets that have been active in the past year are down about twenty eight percent. When both of these lines are in negative territory, it means that the probability of a rise is higher than average, meaning you buying into your position further or adding on doing so at a lower risk than the average point in bitcoin's history. So there is some upside here if
you can be patient. Doesn't mean tomorrow things are going to jump back above seventy K or seventy five K. It means that you adding on is justified based on the amount of quote unquote blood in the streets.
Yeah, I mean, certainly there could be more downside. But you know, I've been telling people outside of this Iran situation, and everything's happening. It's still all time, you know, if you're looking at it from a yearly standpoint, a great opportunity to start dollar cost averaging in. And while no one can call the exact bottom, I believe we are in a bottom zone. We've crashed down obviously big time, from one to twenty six one hundred and twenty six
thousand in October of last year. And if you have a long term enough horizon, these are very good entries. Now if you're looking I need to make you know, one hundreds of thousands of dollars by next month not a good probably not a good idea.
Yeah, exactly. And you know that that was almost exactly six months ago. Now, I guess the ultime I was like October fifth, But you can see how the MVRV, especially the long term MVRV, was still above water as prices were falling, and it didn't really get below until mid November crashed all the way down to about what the low eighty ks or so, and that's when you can see that we were in kind of a similar situation where we're at now both lines well below zero percent.
I guess right now the orange line is just a little below zero, but the blue line is worse than what it was back then. And then we got that relief rally going on, and it went all the way up until mid January before we had the really big dip in early February. You see the same situation, both lines well below zero, and then we get a minor relief rally. So I guess really what we would want to see is the orange line potentially get below ten percent.
If it does get down that far. There's no guarantee it will, but that's when you've got like a historically good opportunity zone that matches what we saw in early February and late November.
Yeah, and usually what we've seen when bigcointeers, you know, those all time lows. And I think there may be another leg down, not guaranteed, of course, let's say it gets it a fifty case. I think there's gonna be a lot of buying historic from what we've seen historically, like Wales and all these guys are going to buy up.
Well at that point, you know, the majority of folks retail are going to be scared as hell, right, and there's going to be some big narrative, maybe the war escalades or something else, and it's the same story over and over. Right, that would be the amazing time to grab it up. But as usual, there's going to be a lot of fear.
Agreed.
Yeah, people are so used to the sixty ks now it doesn't feel like a scary number anymore, as simple as that sounds. And once if we do get to the fifty ks, that's going to be a psychological change for the crowd, and they're going to start thinking then about what if it's going to forty k, thirty K And you'll one hundred percent see some fear really trickle
in at that point. And if we need to have that stage of ultimate fear in order to get the long term rally that so many people are waiting for, it's going to be once we breach you know, sixty K and start really testing a lot of holder's patients especially on the retail side. We need to see retail just start to lose their faith that crypto and bitcoin are long term investments they can believe in.
M How about we.
Look at the MVRV for Ethereum.
¶ Ethereum analysis
Sure, yeah, so Ethereum's actually slightly outpaced Bitcoin. I was looking at the screener just to check on their returns. Yeah, Ethereum's up like one percent in the past week, while Bitcoin was down. I think I saw like zero point five percent, So it's just slightly outpacing it. You can see network growth and active addresses, by the way, declining again after sort of an unusual peak at the beginning
of February. But from what I see on the mvr V end it's almost identical negative one and a half percent for thirty day and actually technically negative zero point six percent for thirty day and negative thirty one percent for three sixty five day, So actually a little more opportunity on the long term side and almost identical on the short term side. So I wouldn't really differentiate those tiny margins much. Both are telling the same story Bitcoin and Ethereum.
And then how about sentiment for etherorem m HM.
Right now, So on sentiment.
You can lock the asset to anything and that way it won't change if you're looking up like a secondary asset. But now I've unlocked them, and it looks maybe slightly more negative on ethereum for whatever reason. It had a huge negative sentiment day two days ago Sunday the fifth, and it's rebounded a little, but still it's obvious that the positive sentiment that we saw more in mid March
has dissolved and it's changed to mostly negative. So this is a little more on a bearish sentiment track compared to Bitcoin's more neutral story.
Yeah, I mean it seems like most all coins are probably going to be in the same position as eth just because it's wild. Other like, maybe we could look
¶ XRP analysis
at XRP now XRP sentiment and yeah, which has done really poorly. By the way, XRP is underperforming by a lot compared to some of the other blue chips. Yeah, I'm not surprised.
It's seeing some very negative sentiment right now, and this can be a good sign for you long term XRP holders. If you see the top left of my screen, that yellow yellow bar is showing zero point eighty six in terms of positive versus negative sentiment ratio. That means that there are more bearish comments across x, Reddit, Telegram, et cetera than there are bullish comments. Not surprised, And I'm sure it's probably gonna be the same for Solana, right
¶ Solana analysis
or some.
I would assume.
So, Yeah, Solana has also performed pretty poorly, almost as bad as XRP since that top in mid March. Surprisingly, it's seeing some pretty positive sentiment. Who knows why, I don't think it. Yeah, go ahead, all right.
They do have a summit coming up, so it may be I'm actually going to be attending that summit on Monday.
Yeah, so they.
Have some events going on, so that might be contributing to some of the sentiment.
Makes sense, And that's why sentiment isn't always a perfect science, because it can get a little oversaturated by some event news or some update that the coin had, and suddenly there's just more discussion about it, and that will trickle into our algorithm as positive sentiment because people are excited about that event or updates. So maybe that's why we're seeing the anomaly that we're seeing today.
Yeah, for sure.
¶ XRP MVRV
Can we take a look at XRP ANDBRV curiously.
Yeah, yeah, I think that's going to look really negative based on how much XRP has declined in the last couple of months. Yeah, so as expected, it's definitely lower than bitcoin and ethereum. It's about negative four point three percent on the thirty day. You can see just how low it really got here on that big crash. It got all the way down to native thirty two percent in early February, and the long term was below negative fifty percent, which is pretty historically low, but it's getting
there again. It's down at negative forty one percent for those long term traders. So if you're looking for a blood in the streets opportunity, it looks like XRP is the best candidate over bitcoin and ethereum right now.
Yeah, and great opportunities to dull cross average in But as always, folks, remember you got to have that long term view and there could still be more downside vaulty with what we exactly what we started this episode with, you know, with this Iran situation, if that escalates to see markets tumble, But again, if you have a long term view, it's a great great dollar coross average opportunity.
One hundred percent, and I also was looking at our social trends page because you can type in any sort of combination of words and see how much they're being discussed across different platforms like Telegram, Reddit, x four chan, etc. And what I did here is I just combined words like war, conflict, battle tensions with words like end, ending, finished, overdone, completed, And as you would imagine, this is basically a chart that measures the amount of optimism that the war's going
to end, and when it gets high, we typically will see the opposite outcomes happen, like the two biggest spikes. I know the colors are a little faint, but I can't change them right now.
Our team, by the way, is.
Working on a completely brand new UI that looks amazing, so I'm excited to share that once we have that release. But yeah, like social volume and dominance gets super high right here on March twenty fifth, I can't remember the exact news, but I'm sure people were excited about the potential of the war ending, and then all of a sudden, prices drop right after because the.
War did not end. Again.
Right here March thirty first, people get super optimistic, and right after we see a little bit of a nose dive back to sixty six K. So, long story short, I think that the overall trend, if I could draw a line on this page, it's definitely going slightly up, with more and more people optimistic that the war will end soon. I would use it as kind of a counter signal and just look at the really big spikes as indications that FOMO is starting to creep in a little bit.
Yeah, great insights. Obviously, we hope that this situation resolves sooner, not just because of markets, but you know, nobody wants to be in a war and people's lives and all that, but it does impact the markets, and we'll use as a secondary thing and hopefully, Brian, by the time we meet next things have not asked related, but they de escalated and we're in a better position there, fingers frost Tony. Yeah,
good stuff, Brian. So we'll meet in a couple of weeks and see how the charts and the data looks and go from there. But thank you so much, my friend.
Thank you always a pleasure