¶ Intro
Hey everyone, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as well as a thumbsup button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please be sure to follow and leave a five star rating. Folks, We've got lots of big news to talk about, major updates with the crypto market structure, bill,
Bitcoin is dumping and much more. So you don't want to miss this. Make sure you watch and listen to the end. Okay, let's start with Bitcoin currently trading below
¶ Bitcoin price analysis
eighty two thousand dollars. The exact price is eighty eight and eighty seven dollars, so this should come as no surprise, folks. Over the past three to four weeks, I've been sharing the wyke Off accumulation chart and the model that's been shared by user Marti Party on x and we've been talking about this thing could go lower. We could see a double bottom where we're retesting the lows from November,
and it looks like that's what's setting up here. And the confirmation behind that is that bitcoin is in the oversl zone. The artist sign the daily chart is at thirty. In addition, we've been looking at the bitcoin to gold ratio chart and that is bottoming out. Not to mention, the two year rolling mvrv Z score is the lowest it has ever been, lower than twenty twenty two with the FTX crash. So you're seeing some incredible bottoming signals here.
There's fear sentiment in the market, yet you have bullish catalysts out there, such as the crypto market, structure, bill and much more. So I believe a bounce is coming, you know, following that why coof accumulation model. The big question I've been sharing with you all the two scenarios is this simply a move to one hundred and four hundred and five thousand dollars then we roll over and go into a bear market low or the continuation of the bull market where we have that blow off top.
Now there are a lot of bear signals on the charts right, but there are also some bullish. The macro is definitely bullish because we're in quantitative easing, liquidity is rising. Other assets like precious metals, the stock market a much more are moving. But crypto seems stuck. So this is where I believe crypto will catch up. I believe there will be a rotation away from gold. And if you look at goals chart, this is just the data now.
It has gone parabolic. It is extremely overbought. This is per the charts now, so we could see a very strong pullback. Now. Is that simply a local top that's going to form or the boloff top for gold? We don't know. We're gonna have to wait and see, because
it has been going crazy. You got silver hitting new all time highs, even copper and palladium, all the metals are moving and I believe once they cool down, whether once again local top or boloff top, rotational liquidity to the stock market in crypto and the bull case or bitcoin is a move to one hundred and forty K and of course all coins will follow. This would be the ideal scenario. If you're simply an all coin holder, you want to see this right, But there's no guarantee
it happens. So that's why I'm giving you multiple scenarios, and we're going to have to be patient and see how this all plays out. If people are not sharing multiple scenarios with you. They're doing a disservice to you. And if they are so adamant that they know what exactly is going to happen next, please ask them for the winning lottery numbers next week so we can go play the lottery and make money that way. Right, But at this point you can't definitively say this is a
bull market or this is a bear market. It's kind of wait and see because the structure is still intact, and you know, as long as bitcoin holds these structures, then it can bounce and go to new highs. But again,
this cycle has been different. You got a lot of different catalysts and headwinds and things that really threw us a curveball, like tariffs, right, the big dump that happened in the beginning of twenty twenty five, like Bitcoin hitting a new all time high before the having like bitcoin in its year after the having ending the year red when it usually in green. These are facts. They're not disputable.
So we have to look at it with those things in mind and say, you know what, if those things are different, very different cycle, it could be that the bounce is coming to new highs or again just simply a retrace and we roll over into the lows and the other factor I shared and actually Brian from Santaman we did a video earlier this week where we talked
about this bigcoin. Whales have been slowly accumulating, so similar pattern to what we've seen throughout this bullmarket and retail they were accumulating a lot, but now they're starting to slow down, and maybe this price pullback and maybe a pull down to seventy a k or whatever to test those loads in November is what drives retail down. They get into the fear mode while whales keep accumulating, and then we know what follows that massive pumps. So this
is just the data. I'm just simply sharing the data here and I'm going to be doing a newsletter right up tomorrow, so make sure you subscribe to the newsletter where I put these charts and the data points in there so that you can review them directly. Guys. So we're gonna have to be patient and see how things play out. Here's what macro investor Ral Palell had to say regarding what's happening. He says everyone in cryptos now says we can't have nice things like NASDAC, gold, silver, copper,
and em ripping higher. He shared a chart and said, this is the divergence versus the NASDAC it barely registers. Twenty twenty had something similar. So the chart compares the Nasdaq one hundred versus Bitcoin, and they generally move in conjunction. Because the NASDAK covers tech right, Bitcoin obviously you can categorize it as a technology stock in a way. I'm not saying it is, just you can you make that correlation the closest thing in the stock market to it.
So he's essentially saying the thesis has not changed. Just you have the broken four your cycle, and this thing is following liquidity, which is now starting to catch up. He also said the gap in Bitcoin versus the GMI global total liquidity barely right registers. But we saw similar in twenty fifteen and twenty twenty. There is nothing abnormal about this current disconnect. Liquidity is rising. All you require is patients and the market should catch up in time.
So I tend to agree with this because it's backed by the data. Right. The liquidity again, I talked about doing qe M two for many of these major countries are rising Japan's doing stimulus and much more. So I do believe crypto will catch up, but I could be wrong. I have no problem in saying I'm wrong, because I'm also not saying, hey, I know definitely what's going to
happen tomorrow and next come on. Right again, If I knew that, I would have a time machine or a crystal ball, and again I would go play the lottery. I wouldn't be in the market investing. So I hope you guys understand I'm being very transparent and reasonable here, and that's what we have to be. And there are differences in this cycle. You can't just say, oh, it's just like twenty twenty two. It's just like twenty No, it's not. When did bitcoin hitting new all time high
before they're having? Never did. When did bitcoin after the year after the having end the year in the red? It never did that, So things are different this time around. Now look at this. President Trump says he'll be announcing
¶ Trump Fed Chair pick
the new Federal Reserve chair tomorrow morning. So we saw on polymarket recently, Rick Ryder cio Blackrock was leading, but all of a sudden you have Kevin worsh He is now in the lead. And he spiked up to eighty eight percent per poly market. Now he is bitcoin and crypto friendly. Obviously it's not blackrock. But at the end of the day, whoever goes in there is gonna do Trump's bidding. Trump has a crypto agenda. Obviously, he wants rates lower, he wants money printing, he wants crypto to
be in brak. So the end goal is still the same here. So let's see and let's see how the market reacts. It may not do anything tomorrow. It might dump even further because volatility comes anytime there's some sort of fed announcement and market makers left to play with people's emotions. So I would wait for the to settle to see how this pans out. And a big potential
¶ No government shutdown
rod block has been removed. The Senate reached a spending deal to avoid a US government shutdown. This was something we were all concerned about. Would it further disrupt liquidity, would it delay the crypto market structure built? Well, this has been resolved, so this is a big headwind and
roadblock out of the way. So I think this is bullish, right, folks, because we saw what happened in Q four where you had the big dump off the Trump announcement of China terrorists and all that which you rolled back, and of course the government shut down which delayed a lot of things, so this is very good. Things are looking like they're setting up nicely here with the market bottoming out soon and all that and then start moving and I believe a ton a ton of bitcoin options expire tomorrow, so
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¶ Clarity Act moves in Senate
we got a big win today for the CLARITIAC. So the Senate Agriculture Committee passed its portion of the CLARITIAC out of the committee twelve to eleven party line vote, with no Democrats voting in favor, so a couple of Definitely, we're seeing progress. Right. The sausage making process is ugly, but it is what it is. This is how it happens. The Democrats really did not vote for this because of
the Trump conflict of interest items. I don't know how that will affect future votes and other committees within the Senate. We're going to have to wait and see. But it's great that this bill is moving forward. So we are seeing progress here, which is very very good. Now a bunch of the folks in the industry weigh in on this, and I want to share what they have to say. So White House cryptos are David Sachs said, with today's vote to advance crypto market structure legislation out the Senate
Agriculture Committee. We are one step closer to establishing the necessary regulatory framework to make the United States the crypto capital of the world. Thank you to Chairman John Boozman as well as his staff for their leadership throughout this process. While the vote was partisan, a number of Democrat members stated their commitment to passing this important legislation. We will continue to work with them on a bypart and basis
to achieve that goal. So again, things are moving ahead nicely here and this is what we want to see. So Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, said, really important step forward today on market structure legislation with the Senate Agriculture Committee passing its portion of the bill. Thanks to Chairman John Boozman for his leadership or your leadership, Senator Corey Booker for ultimately helping America to get comprehensive bipartisan crypto
bill across the finish line. Now. Ripples CEO Brad garling House also waited in saying the last couple of weeks have been an absolute firestorm of action to get the Market Structure bill passed. While the US Senate Banking Committee clears its logjam. Thank you to Senator Tim Scott. Congrats are in order to Senate Agriculture GOP Chairman John Boozman for advancing the Senate Agriculture Committee's Market Structure Bill out of the committee today. He says, as I've said before,
clarity is better than chaos. The legislative process can be messy and complex, but it's one hundred percent necessary to have clarity for this and future generations of crypto entrepreneurs, builders, and users as this technology becomes increasingly ingrained into our global financial infrastructure. So guys, things are looking good. It looks like this built with no government shut down happening, could definitely get passed by the end of Q one
and the March obviously, right, So very very good. Now,
¶ SEC CFTC Crypto
there is a lot happening on the SEC and CFTC front. So today SEC Chair Paul Atkins and new CFDC chair Mike sea Leg held a joint event where they talked about working together on crypto and they have or they said they are expecting to sign an agreement on crypto oversight. So here's what Mike sea Leg tweeted out. He says, I'm pleased to announce that the CFDC is partnering with the SEC on Project Crypto, bringing coordination, coherence, and unified
approach to the federal oversight of crypto asset markets. This is bullish. You got the two agencies, which you know, in a pass I've competed against each other, are working together to get legislation, get rules of the rod out. And you know, I recently interviewed Austin Campbell and I've had him on the pot. He's very, very, very smart guy. And in the interview one of the things he mentioned was it's not so much the Clarity Act that's important. While we do need it, it's not so much that
that needs to get past. It's the SEC and CFDC need to provide rules because they're the regulatory agencies. They do the majority of the enforcing right, So even though you may have a bill, the SEC does not give you the details the fine point so to speed. Same thing with the CFTC. It's really gonna not help. So
great to see things that are moving ahead here. And in addition, they were both Mike Selak and Paul Atkins on CNBC to talk about crypto and one of the things that Paul Atkins said he says now is the right time to open up the twelve point five trillion dollars four one k retirement market to crypto. So this
could be another bullish catalyst. So he could be once the orchestructure bill passes, they right away do this because it seems like they have it ready on deck, and that brings in a ton of money into crypto, and that could be a big catalyst again that drives bitcoin and all coins to a blow off top to new highs. Again, not guaranteed. I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm sharing you with the facts that are happening here and the potential scenarios that could play out. So this could
be very, very bullish. We're gonna have to wait and see. We're gonna monitor the charts, We're gonna monitor the unchained data. We're gonna monitor the macro with legislation, liquidity and all these things, you know, opening up of major capital coming in from four to one k's and all that. So we're gonna monitor all these things guys as we continue. So make sure you are subscribed if you haven't as yet, you following on the podcast platforms, you leave a five
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And also if you want to support the podcast, you can also grab a copy of my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback and digital. And if you want to expand your knowledge around crypto and blockchain tech and much more, check out my course at Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need to know about crypto, so check it out, folks. Thank you so much for tuning in. I appreciate you all, folks, and I'll talk to you all later.
