¶ Intro
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please let that subscribe button as well as a thumbsup button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks. I am back home from vacation. I'm back in my home studio, so the audio quality should be better. But
we got some big news to cover, guys. Big day,
¶ Bitcoin price analysis
big announcement from the Trump administration. The US government is about to reopen in much more. And we see bitcoin right now trading just below one hundred and six thousand dollars on the daily chart. We're seeing a bounce and it looks just like we've seen throughout this bull market, where bitcoin went below the two hundred day moving average that's the bullmarket line in the sand, and then starts to recover. Because we know nothing good happens below that
two hundred day moving average. If you are below that in a downtrend, you are in a bear market, right I've said that at nauseum, and on that same daily chart, the RSI is moving away from the over soul zone. So you have extreme fear, you have bitcoin over sold, and you have these huge narratives in the market. Now
we have work to do. I'm not calling home saying this is the start of the reversal pump, because on the weekly chart the bears are stelling control, but on the higher timeframe of the monthly chart, the bulls are stealing control. So we got work to do here. Bitcoin has a lot of support levels to reclaim so that we can say, hey, this is indeed the reversal and the continuation, So please understand what I'm saying. We are seeing some positive signs, but we got work to do now.
One important thing is that bitcoin has corrected just about twenty two percent, so not even as bad as we've seen throughout this bull market, where we've seen minus thirty two percent, thirty three percent and so forth. So this is nothing even though people have been so fearful. Right people been calling the top of the market, and much more so. Here analyst Michael Posinos says, this is the
same as four out of the last six corrections. But the important thing is guys, Bitcoin closed the weekly very strong, So here Benjamin Cohen says Bitcoin managed to close above the fifty week SMA, so that's a key support level. Now it has to get back above that two hundred day moving average, like I said, but we are seeing positive signs here. Analyst Kevin Spence and said Bitcoin has closed it's weekly above all key levels. The macro bowl
trend remains intact. So again, guys, this is just the data, not feelings, not emotions, not hopium, just the data showing that it did close above the key support levels. And like I said, we don't want to call home and say this is the reversal pump. Yet, we want to see the markets show us and give us confirmation. So Bitcoin needs to put the work in here. But we got the macro factors and the narratives. For example, the
¶ US Gov reopens
Senate reaches the deal to end the government shutdown, so it looks like the government's going to be fully open tomorrow. Now. I've been sharing these respective milestones and landmark events and narratives for a long time, right, I've been sharing it
in my newsletter on the podcast. So I said, some of the key factors that show this bullmark is not over include the FED ramping down QT and starting QE and continuing ray cuts, the government reopening, plus you got the Market Structure Bill still in the Senate, and you got the all quintfs to be approved by the SEC. So with the government reopening, we're going to see the latter two get done, guys. And of course we get confirmation from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, that
they're ending QT come December first. Plus the New York Fed Governor just said on Saturday or Friday that they're going to return to QE very soon. I reported on that, right, folks. So all of these things are lighting up here very beautifully.
¶ Trump Tariff dividend check
And then you throw in President Trump says Americans will get at least two thousand dollars dividend payment, excluding high income earners. He wants to use the tariff revenue to give Americans the dividend. Now, I know this is a whole can of worms. There's a whole political debate. I understand the tariff implications and how that was already like taxing people and much. I'm not here to talk about that.
I'll save that for the political podcast to handle. But the fact of the matter is, if they are going to indeed do this This is going to drive retail to come in and you know we're going to see something like what we saw in twenty twenty, where you get these stimmy checks and people are you know, investing in the markets. Now, will everybody invests in the markets.
Of course not. They're actual people who need it. They need to you know, pay their bills and much more so we want to be cognizant of that, but a good amount you know, they're going to go and put it into the market. We've seen this time and time again, and this I think could spur the retail fomo because one of the things I've been saying NonStop is when have we seen the market top without true euphoria? Agreed, we didn't see euphoria. All we saw was fear. So
I said, that is not right. History is not on the side of people calling the market top. So again, right, We've been looking at this market holistically. You got a lot of chart guys who don't understand macro and market fundamentals. I've been giving you that plus the charts. Right, you have to look at all of these things together, not
just one. You can't have tunnel vision, so be careful with some of these chart guys, who are not telling you about global liquidity, who are not telling you about what the FED is doing with quantitative easing, because you can't just look at those things, and you can't just look at the charts. You have to look at them together to get a full view of the market, right guys. So I hope you appreciate that. So you know, we'll
see Trump posted on truth Social about this now. Scott Pissent, Secretary of the Taragy he kind of backtracks some of it. But look, I think Trump sees there's a bit of a need for this politically because of what happened recently with the elections. Plus you know the Supreme Court is going to be reviewing the Terriiff city situation. So I don't know, maybe they push it back and this is the way to make up for it. I don't know, right, I'm just guessing, but I think those are plausible scenarios.
So let's see. But this would add fuel to the fire. This is the cherry on top of the Sunday as you have retail FOMO in with their tariff stimmy checks if you want to call it that. Now, I like what nature Raci had to say and I kind of alluded to it earlier. Government shut down equals SPOT crypto ETF floodgates opening, So the SEC will be able to get going on these and he says in the meantime, we could see the first thirty three Act spot XRP
ETF launched this week. So, like I said, the government opening allows the SEC to do their job and the Senate to get that crypto bill through. So these are major milestones with a crypto market. And like I said in the most recent podcast, I don't think the market makers and the whalers are dumb like that to skip these things which could drive massive retail FOMO and kick us into a massive rally to the blow off top, honestly, right,
So that's just what I'm thinking. Look, it's not guaranteed, but I think if we think logically here, realistically, we look at all the things and all the factors that are happening, I think those are plausible scenarios. Now, Arkham, which is a crypto analytics firm, they highlighted that Trump Media and Technology Group holds over one billion dollars a bitcoin. That's pretty crazy. Over one point three billion of bitcoin
as of September thirty, twenty twenty five. Incredible. So look, I know there's a whole political conversation here, but I'm just looking at it from an investment standpoint. Again, I'll save the political commentary for political podcasts, right guys. And look, you're free to share your comments in a comment section. I understand, but just note that I'm not going into these political talking points because that's not what we do here. But this right here is confirmation that I think Trump
and his family they're betting big because they know what's coming. Again, you got to read between the lines here, right, So I don't think they would be holding this asset if it's about to dump and go down to the bear market bottom that some people are saying. I think they will sell as we're nearing the top. So we're gonna watch all of these things closely, now, folks. This episode is brought to you by v Chain. V chain is one of the top Layer one enterprise blockchains in the market.
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¶ CFTC crypto spot trading
US regulator that may rule over digital assets, pushing towards cryptospot trading. So this is coming out from Commissioner Caroline fam Will. She's the acting Commissioner, so it says here Caroline fam the acting head of the CFTC, the agency likely to take over much of the US oversight of crypto trading, has been meeting personally with regulated exchanges to
get retail spot crypto products, rolling sources say. The stand in leader of the commodities regulator is also said to be seeking to establish a dedicated trial unit in its enforcement division, which has been recently depleted amid the widespread cuts in the federal government or federal employment. Another policy priority will be the allowance of stable coins as tokenized collateral earlier next year, though it's uncertain whether FAM will have moved on by then with what sources indicate is
her plan to work at Moonpay the CFTCE. You know, it's a bit thin when it comes. There's a bit of a skeleton crew running it right now. But shout out to Acting Chair Commissioner FAM because she's been doing an amazing job despite the lack of manpower the CFTC, if you want to put it that way, and we see her, you know, really spearheading a lot of crypto initiatives, and the SEC in parallel has been doing the same thing.
And I think they're all trying to get this market to a certain place where more capital can come in, and of course that's very good for us who are early adopters. Now, look at this news Ledger, the hardware
¶ Ledger IPO
company is considering a New York IPO or fundraise as demand for hardware wallet climbs. So, folks, one of the factors I've been stating, why does the bull markets got over. You have many crypto companies as well as traditional tech companies looking to do IPOs. No one does an ip in a bear market, please show me right, Only a fool would do that. So these people are anticipating that the bull market continues and they are working with the big bangs and the big Wall Street firms who are
doing lots of analysis on this. So they're not idiots. So again read between Alliance right, why would they be planning IPOs? WHI is crack in securitize in others looking to do to open AI right, looking to do an IPO. Come on, guys, right, this is where the chart. Guys, they get blinded by just charts. But you got to look at what's happening in the market. So this is another sign. And Ledger is a big hardware company and another crypto company looking to go public. Folks. Now, final
¶ Pakistan Crypto and Stablecoin =================================================
news item, Pakistan mulls rupee backed stable coin as country
sees twenty five billion dollar crypto opportunity. So we continue to get news from across the globe of countries embracing crypto, setting up the guardrails with their legislation, investing launching stable coins, trying to attract as much of the business as possible, So Pakistan is considering launching a rupee backed stable coin, as experts warned that delays in regulating digital assets could cost the country up to twenty five billion dollars in
lost economic opportunities. Folks, what have I said over the years? Any country that bans cryptos writing their economic death sentence because the markets, the economies and the governments will all be running on blockchain rails. So here you go. Now the narrative is coming out. What we need to do is we're going to lose money. Right, of course, you're gonna lose out on jobs, revenue, tax revenue and all that.
So speaking at these Sustainable Development Policy Institute conference on Friday, Pakistan Banks Association presidents Afar Masoud said the nation could unlock twenty to twenty five billion dollar in crypto related growth, according to a report by local news outlet Daily Times. Masoud pointed out that booming global stable coin market, adding that Pakistan is seriously considering a rupee backed stable coin and that a central bank digital currency CBDC could improve
financial access while reducing remittance costs. Folks, I hope you see the direction the puck is heading in here, and we want to skate to that direction, right, So you make sure you're looking at this market from a macro perspective. There's money to be made here, but you got to be patient. It's a rollercoaster ride because markets are volatile, and crypto because it's still very young, it's extremely volatile. But that's where the opportunity lies because nothing moves like this.
Nothing gives you the swing up, and look you got the swing down, which is pretty bad. But this is where we are going to follow it closely, look at the different signals and identify the top zone so we can start taking our profits. And when the bear market rolls around and it's bloody out there and people are calling crypto scam again, I'll be backing up the truck and hopefully you'll be here with me doing the same thing, and we're going to rinse and repeat for the next
bull cycle. So again, this bull market's not over. Based on the data, the facts, and all the things I've shared so far, and much more I've often covered in d Tail in my newsletter, there's much more to this, and we want to make sure we're checking our emotions at the door. We're not operating by emotions because you will get wrecked if you're approaching the market that way. You get to look at the data and you got
to exercise a lot of patients, right, folks. So again, it's not over, and I think we'd still out you know, a final fifth wave macro fifth wave if you call it that, you know from an Elliott wave standpoint, before this market tops out. And look, not just the crypto market, but the stock market as well, because all of these assets are following global liquidity. What have we seen over the past two three years. Crypto hitting new highs, stock
market hitting new highs, real estate and precious metals. Right, gold was going nuts. You guys saw the parabolic blow off top. If you look, it might be a local top, but that's sure, it looked like a parabolic blow off top. So let's see. Let's see what happens with gold. And you know, we don't have a crystal ball, but we're going to look at the data and continue to study this closely. Folks. That's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the
thumbs up button, hit the subscribe button. If you haven't subscribed as yet, and folks, a great way you can support the podcast is by subscribing to my free email newsletter. I will be putting out a write up tomorrow. Link will be in the description. Check out my book on Amazon and my course at Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need to know about crypto. So, folks, thank you so much
for tuning in. I appreciate you all and I'll talk to you all later.
