Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. Folks, those of you watching on YouTube can probably tell I am not in my studio and hopefully the breeze here from the beach he is not bothering you. But I am recorded from Cancun, Mexico, on vacation with the family, and I wanted to make this quick video to talk about what I'm expecting for crypto in twenty twenty six.
Twenty twenty five has been a bit disappointing. I know a lot of you are expecting something different, essentially what we've seen in the past bullmarkets blow off tops. Now I have a thesis I've been sharing with you all that I think there's two scenarios that could play out. One we see a relief rally and bitcoint doesn't go to a new all time high. We have alts move a bit, but it's not to necessarily a new all time high, or some of them could go to new
all time highs, or the bullmarket continues. Now I'm sure many of you been seeing silver is hitting you all time highs I think across seventy one bucks this week, and then you had gold now is breaking out again. So what have we seen throw so far in this bull market that precious metals gold has been a leading indicator, and there's a correlation right when gold is moving, bitcoin is cool down. The stock market's cool down when gold
is correcting, you know, device versus happening. So there's some optimism there to say that this bull market could potentially continue. In addition, you have the FED which has started quantitative easing. We're in the easy money cycle. Rates continue to be cut. They're going to inject tons of liquidity. And not just the FED, but we saw Japan approve a one hundred and something billion dollars stimulus. I don't remember the exact number. I think one hundred and eighteen billion. So all that
liquidity will make its way into markets. And you have other central banks that are going to do the same thing. So what's happening here? This is such a weird dichotomy. You have Tradify adopting crypto rapid pace of all this liquidity that's starting to build up now, yet the price action doesn't reflect that, and a lot of people are saying, hey,
look the market is top. It's done for bitcoin, nothing else, right, But you know, looking at the market and looking at what the macro backdrop is and the fundamentals, it is so weird because the charts are showing some bear signals while the fundamentals like crypto adoption and the macro is at this epic level like we've never seen before. So I do think there is one moral leg I think a move to a blow off top is still still
in the cards for us. I could be absolutely wrong, and yes, you guys are probably coming to common section and kill me if I'm wrong, But obviously do your own research. This is not financial advice. I'm just sharing my thesis from my research. And look, I know that may seem impossible right now, but I can't ignore the macro factors. I can't ignore that markets move based on liquidity, and we are, like I said, in that easy money cycle where it's going to be cheaper to borrow capital
because rates are lower. The Fed and the other central banks are inserting liquidity. You have incredible adoption from tradifi companies, banks launching crypto trading, ETFs, tokenizing, and much more. The SEC has passed or approved tons of all coin ETFs. So it's so weird that these things are there, these on rams and these major adoption items while we're heading into a bear market. It doesn't seem right. And we know the banks and tradifi they want to make money.
So what they launch their services in a bear market? Why would they not launch it and then have a blowof top to make the money right? And you look at ETF inflows, they continue to trickle in digital acid treasury companies keep buying. Not to mention, you have crypto companies looking to do IPOs in twenty twenty six, in addition to traditional tech companies like AI companies. So why the dichotomy? This is why I'm posing this question because I want you to think about it. It's what I've
been thinking thinking about. It is what I've been noodling on, like just this is so weird. Now part of maybe the issue. You know, a lot of people get caught up in that four year cycle. I think the four year cycle was initially driven by maybe the having and the psychology of the having, but liquidity was the true driver of the markets. And this liquidity cycle has been disrupted and pushed back, like I said earlier, by the terriffs.
The terriffs change the timeline. And then plus you got Trump looking to do the stimulus checks and much more. Not to mention, the Clarity Act is up to be passed in January. You know, David Sachs came out and said, hey, look, we're going to get this done in January. Members of the Senate have also said the same thing. So it is so strange, folks. I've been here since twenty twenty six, so it is a really an interesting time to be
in the market. But look, there's a saying time in the market is better than better than trying to time the market. The only thing that's really hard is our emotions and our need to get those profits right. I know we all have life goals. I do as well. I've told you, guys what I want to do with the money right, and I'm sure many of you have, you know, started making your plans on the profits you
could potentially make. But we've seen, guys, markets are cyclical, and you know, even if let's say, for what some odd reason, I don't know what it is, this this round or this cycle, maybe it's the terriffs that killed everything. Even if we just have a relief rally and we have to wait longer, I'm personally prepared to wait. I have not taking profits, and I know some of you are saying, Tony, you're crazy, but I don't necessarily need
the money right now. Now if I was certainly in need of the money, and there's nothing wrong with taking profits, right you do what's best for you, what's best for your family and your finances. I'm okay right now, even though I have those ambitions and goals that I want to use the money and so forth. But my portfolio is up because I've been buying since, you know, December
twenty twenty two January twenty twenty three. And I'll see what this relief rally looks like, and maybe i'll take some profits on some all coins that you know, I want to kind of get rid of. I don't necessarily want to keep holding them, and I'll let you guys know when I do take profits. But it's a strange one. But again, for my research, in studying and looking at what's happening, I still think there's one more leg in this market, and then that'll lead us to a true
blow off top. So again it could be that as we enter into Q one Q two of next year, the Clarity Act gets past, liquidity starts making its way from these central banks around the globe, including the Fed. Of course, capital is cheaper because they've continued to cut rates. You've got Traad five building these huge on rams. More capital comes into this market. Trump and his administration gives the two k tariff stimulus checks if you want to call on that to people, and then you have once
again a blow off top. And you know, again some of the signals there is the stock market still looks good, gold and silver leading, so there's a lot of macro factors here that are just screaming. This thing is not over. Liquidity is not drying up. It's actually expanding now. But you know, well, we're gonna have to wait and see, folks. I wish I had a crystal ball, or like I said before, I had the time machine from Back to
the Future movie. I can go go to the future and come back and tell you guys, what's the deal. But you know, personally, I'm just going to keep holding and again, you do what's best for you. You know, people are gonna call me names and say all kinds of things. But you know, I like to take a logical, reasonable approach. I'm not telling you to follow me. If you want to take profits, you do what you got
to do. Maybe if it's on the relief rally or I gain, could be the continuation of the bull market. But we're gonna have to wait and see. I mean, you can even tell right now that there's no Santa rally, there's no Christmas rally. And look, we've still got some days left in the market till the end of the year. But clearly very different. Right even though gold, the gold and silver people are probably really happy right now. But congrats to you if you're holding gold and so I
have a little bit. I don't have much where I can, you know, celebrate, but hey, look any money and I'm making, I'm happy. But again, I'm not making life changing money on the gold ETFs that I have, but it's good that it is going up, So folks hang in there.
There's still some important landmark and milestone items ahead, like the Clarity Act, and you know these tradi fi institutions launching more on ramps, like we've heard Charles Schwab and much more are going to launch crypto trading in twenty twenty six, so I think that is some of the things I'm holding on too, in addition to cheaper capital
environment more of liquidity, so I'm leaning more towards that. Right, the bears are going to be once again, They're gonna be in a common section say I'm an idiot, a fool and whatever, but I'm just being reasonable. I'm just looking at, you know, all the things that are happening, and that that's my thesis. And you know, I'd love to hear from you guys if you think I'm wrong, and you know, leave your thoughts and comments below. And folks,
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out Treasure guys. I'm a user of the device. I personally use the Treasure save five and seven and once again they got a holiday sales, so get grab those discounts, folks. I would love to hear what you guys think. Do you agree with me that there's one more leg in this bullmarket to a blow off top? Or do you believe we're going to see a relief rally as we head into twenty twenty six and maybe this happens Q one,
Q two. You know we're gonna have to wait and see, and you know, i'd love to hear what you guys think. Be civil, be nice, please no name calling and all these things. In the comments section. Share your thoughts and I'll be sure to respond to your guys comments. All right, folks, I'm gonna get back to the beach once again, wishing you all a safe, prosperous and healthy twenty twenty six. I'll catch you in the next one.