¶ Intro
In flowed into all of the ETFs. That's massive, and you can see how much correlation these inflows have with pushing up prices because they're largely being fueled by institutionals with huge capital.
Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. Joining me today is Brian from Sentiment, and as you all know, we're going to go into the metrics and the data to see what bitcoin and all coins are doing and what may come next. Brian, great to see you.
Great to be here with you, Tony. Last time we chatted it was kind of a more worrisome time, and all of a sudden, we're in celebration mode here as Bitcoin just went above one hundred k for the first time since February third. So yeah, a lot of rejoicing happening. Yeah.
In fact, Bitcoin cross one hundred and one thousand dollars as well, and then eth is back over two thousand. Seeing some momentum here, But of course we want to validate this move with the data. Yeah, let's kick it
¶ Bitcoin analysis
off with Bitcoin if you can share your screen and some of the metrics and we can start diving into it.
Yeah, we'll jump right in here. One thing I want to look at right away is seeing if there's a divergence forming between the ten to ten k BTC holders, which are essentially the key stakeholders that through our studies have the most correlation with where prices tend to go next. Not a perfect one, but a good one. So seeing how they're doing versus what prices are doing, and it
kind of looks so. So we've seen, you know, a fair bit of accumulation going back to mid March, and of course, you know the early April tariff announcement by Trump caused a little bit of a divot right here. That's for those unfamiliar with this chart. We're just looking at the total amount of BTC held by all wallets that have between ten to ten k BTC. They make up about two thirds of the supply of this group, so massive amount. So they dump a little bit, but
by the next day they're already accumulating again. A little bit of flatness during the uncertainty if that first week of tariff policy announcements and you know, reel versus fake news all that stuff, but they really began accumulating rapidly right around the bottom around April tenth, April eleventh, actually technically April ninth was the bottom, and you can see
they're already accumulating here. They get all the way up to about thirteen and a half million BTC combined before a little bit of dumping started, and they're actually down just slightly despite prices being up. So you know, if we draw just a ligne here for the amount held versus the price, you can see they're going in two different directions. So ideally we need the accumulation for the key stakeholders to keep up and start looking a little
more like that or even you know higher. You get the idea that would justify for prices to go even higher, and potentially we see that new you know, one ten k bitcoin all time high. That's somebody you're waiting for right now.
Yeah, that definitely makes sense. And as I look at this chart, I see the peaks and valleys and ebbs and flows you know on the micro overall, like it doesn't go in a straight line. So to your point, hopefully we see that uptick even though overall this is still holding well, it's not like it's in a downtrend or anything like that exactly.
Yeah, they're certainly not dumping by any means. But we do want to see the key stakeholders continuing to get richer in bitcoin over time as a justification for prices to move up, because they've got the capital to push up prices, and that gets retail to kind of help with the domino effect and add fuel to the you know, the rocket ship, if you will. So we need they they tend to take the lead, and if they're not pushing prices up or accumulating more as prices are moving up,
that can be a little worrisome. So you know, based on this chart alone, it could be a signal that we might be in a bit of a stagnant period now that we've reached you know, the summit of one hundred K plus again.
Oh for sure. And then I can only imagine that some of these wills, not all obviously, but if they bought at seventy six K or eighty k, right and it just hit ninety something or one hundred, they take some profits off the table, exactly.
Yeah, And we got to that level what here on April seventh, and during that time, you know, they're still up quite a bit. They've accumulated a total of about a little over forty five k bitcoin during that stretch, which is if I'm doing the math, but like about forty five million dollars worth of BTC, so they're moving in the right direction. Or no, it might be four
hundred and fifty million, whatever it is. It's it's a ton of money, more than any anyone of us watching or speaking, we'll ever see.
Yeah, let's talk about sentiment. How are retail feeling? You know,
¶ Market sentiment
they's starting to get a bit euphoric, are they is a tariff worry kind of dissipating.
Yeah, So I plotted the top three non stable coins here in terms of market cap, just so we can see how sentiments kind of fluctuating between all three. This red line here is bitcoin. We do see that as of today it is up. Not surprising, but it isn't extreme. So this this is essentially measuring all the positive comments versus the negative comments and dividing them by one another based on our I'll go that looks at whether a
comment is bullish or bearish. So when we get up here, you know, a high amount that tends to lead to a top. When it gets very low, I'll just hide the other two so it's easier to see when we get very low. These are the kinds of indications that
we might be in a bottom. We saw one here, and we saw prices rise shortly after, and then this was a really ideal time to buy the morning of May seventh morning for the US folks at least, and that's when prices really started to churn and we suddenly went from ninety three to one hundred in about what
thirty six hours or so. So where we're at now with bitcoin, it looks like there's a little bit of greed going on in terms of just overall sentiment, but it isn't to the level that I would be worried. You know, Fomo's about to burn this rally to the ground.
Right, and it seems like we're setting up for you know, I know seasonality is not always perfect, but in the bullmarket years, the final years, you do have that Q two run up. We saw it in twenty twenty one and where things cool down and potentially a continuation into the end of the year of Q three Q four. But you know, we don't have a crystal ball, but maybe it blows off. There's a bloff top of the end of Q two in June. I don't know.
Yeah, I mean it's impossible to predict because we can have so many macroeconomic factors, tear iff policies just throwing a huge cog into the wheel. Jerome Powell just decided to keep interest rates the same yesterday, and that was a very mild letdown. I think most people overwhelmingly expected that outcome. But yeah, in terms of timing, if we look ahead to the summer, there can be sentiment changes that can shift things. For sure.
¶ Bitcoin ETF inflows
I saw that bitcoin ETF inflows were spiking like black rocks. IBID has been given anything you can share there, So you can see very clearly there have been tons of inflow days.
A little over three billion dollars or not, I'm sorry, five billion since April sixteenth inflowed into all the ETFs. That's massive, and you can see how much correlation these inflows have with pushing up prices because they're largely being fueled by institutionals with huge capital So like you can see even right, you know, a month before Trump was elected, massive inflows. This one had one point three five billion
dollars the day after Trump was elected. Here and we've just had a collective you know, day after day, half a something like half a million, I'm sorry, half a billion dollars per day since April sixteenth, roughly if you take the averages. So that's been a huge contributor. There was a bit of a drop right before Jerome Powell made his decision in the FOMC yesterday because people were fearful. But now they're are going to do business as usual and push money back into it, and that helped push
a bitcoin up higher to where we are now. So I'm yeah, I didn't mean.
To get job. I was just looking at November and that huge spike and how that correlated with the price running up.
Yeah, I mean it was massive. These are more elongated data points, but here this is daily. But the point is you can just see how much the inflows had an effect as people got excited about, you know, the pro crypto presidential candidate being likely voted in and then officially being voted in right after. And it really didn't stop until we got a few inflows in late November here. So it's pretty impressive. How you know, if there's an inflow day, prices generally go up. If there's an outflow,
dad prices generally go down. It's kind of a good reflection of whales are doing on chain, just in a more detailed way through ETFs, because ETFs give much more transparent data and give us an idea of how these institutionals are choosing to put in money versus pull out money on any given day, so it's like there's a big spotlight on them.
Very interesting. This is why I love looking at the data, because you have these different data points and you can really use it to form a thesis and get a clear picture of what's happening in the market. Very very interesting. Let's talk all coins and maybe we can start with Etheroreum.
¶ Ethereum analysis
Etherum crack in two k today, start starting to show some life, and then you had the Petra update that took place this week as well.
M h. Yeah, the Petra update definitely was underwhelming because of course Ethereum did not magically start to outperform the markets instantly like people were hoping back in the merge and steptnumber of twenty twenty two, and people's especially retails, moods and emotions related to any upgrade in crypto largely
depends on whether there's a positive price reaction. That's just the reality because most are using these coins as investment vehicles, and they're not just tech enthusiasts that are excited about innovation. Many say they are, but it's all dependent on price for a lot of people and their sentiment. So it started a little bit down. You can see when it happened a couple days ago, actually had one of the
most negative sentiment days for Ethereum of the year. But as prices started to rise after that upgrade completed, suddenly you know, sentiment has become a little more lukewarm here. It's not euphoric at all yet, so there's plenty of
room to run from what I'm seeing. The point is, I meantherem's up something like eleven twelve percent today, effect that rally can continue until the greed starts to reach something like this or up here where there's like three to one or four to one bullish versus bearish comments. So it looks pretty nice in that respect.
Good to see some life after it's been a tough bull market for eth.
Yeah, it really has. It's interesting. I'm looking at XRP, by the way, and it's having a big U for it day, even though I don't believe it's doing quite as amazing as you know Ethereum. So I'm not quite sure what's going on there. We didn't look at prices yet, but let's see if we can quickly pull that up.
I know there was some news around Ripple. It could be around you know, some news announcement that's driving the sentiment.
Yeah, I saw something related to it. Let's see if it's showing up on our social trends. Actually, we go to trending coins. XRP isn't even in the top ten at the moment. It's all about bitcoin Ethereum. Light coin had a rally a few days back, so that's been in the news. But yeah, I'm not seeing anything too related to XRP. If I just plot that plot the asset. Yeah,
¶ XRP analysis
the social volume isn't showing anything special. So for whatever reason, there is some bullishness toward XRP do a pretty extreme degree right now. So that's a bit of a warning sign actually for XRP enthusiasts. Just a short term fomo spike, but it could be enough to kind of halt any rallies going on. Sure, another thing on ethereum. By the way, I wanted to show check this out. So this is
the mentions of lower prices. We're obviously a little above two thousand right now, but it's the mentions of lower prices between one thousand to fifteen hundred versus higher prices twenty five hundred to three, So a little bit below versus a little bit above where we're at now. When you see very low spikes like this, it tends to be a bottom signal. I'll zoom out a little bit more, and when you see really high spikes, it tends to
be a bit of a top signal. So for example, even right here this at least halted some of the bleeding. This was a great bottom signal. You see how these blue spikes here are just jolting way above red. So people are commenting on lower and then right here we're suddenly seeing a little bit of greed again and people speculating and daydreaming about just how high this ethereum rally can go.
Interesting. It's so funny that we have this data and you could narrow it down to the price calls below or above.
That's really cool. It's fun Yeah, we do it for Bitcoin a lot too, and it kind of looks pretty similar right now. It's just you know, people calling for two one hundred and fifty K. Anytime we go on like a five percent bitcoin rally, and anytime that really spikes, you tend to see a top because the fomo is just getting a little too intense.
¶ Solana analysis
What about Solana? Anything that anything interesting happening there.
In terms of Solana? If I change up the price, the social volume is pretty down. So we saw a big spike make this a little bigger. We saw a big spike here between April fifteenth and twentieth, and this was a pretty huge rally. You can see when it's going way down or way up, that's when people want to talk about it. But it's been kind of unassuming and in the middle. Even though it's rallying today. Everything is rallying today, so it's kind of under the radar still.
But social dominance is actually way down. It's being talked about at some of the lowest levels we've seen since early April, if not the entire year, So it's it's not getting as much hype as you would think. I'm seeing that on Telegram read it especially X, very little discussion. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a bit of bot activity, because X has been having a lot of trouble controlling the amount of you know bots that just spam and chill various coins. You can see the outage
here for a week on four Chan, but they've resumed. Interesting. Yeah, little minor spike on Parcaster, but yeah, it's just been pretty silent and not a lot of discussion related to Solana lately. M M. Yeah. It's funny.
And you know there's like rotational liquidity that happens in the market, right some al quinns start leading and then you have your laggards catch up and like every dog has his day, so to speak, like Eth right now, maybe stealing a show. Then all of a sudden you'll see Eth cool down. Then Solon will pop off and write, you know, so on and so forth.
They take turns. That's the name of the game if you can be ahead of the cycle and understand where the profit redistributions are going, especially between like the top caps, Bitcoin, ethereum Xrps, Solana, chain Link, a lot of these, even binance Coin, a lot of these assets. They're just taking turns,
going on little mini pumps. And you know, the higher up on these pump and dump group chains, you are the more in the know, you'll be on which one is gonna jump up next, So you know, today it's been Ethereum, tomorrow it could be Solana, and sentiment can can really help you shortcut your way to understanding. Yeah. Absolutely,
¶ Memecoin analysis
And I pulled up meme coins here too, Tony, just to see what's going on. And obviously many of these are related to Solana. They've been on a huge tair. Obviously many many, many of them are on a big run as we speak. Mod Coin, especially purple Pepe is the first I've even heard of it, but there's always different variations.
Oh my god, the stuff they come up with. Man, I was hoping these meme coins we wouldn't see except for maybe Doche, we wouldn't see much from you know, somebody Salona based mean coins. But I guess it's a sign of euphoria returning.
A bit right. Yeah, it's it's party time right now for a lot of traders, because they take their one oh one k bitcoin value and they say, wow, look at all these meme coins I can now buy that are pumping way more than bitcoin. I'm going to jump in on that. And generally if that gets too intense, we see a bit of a collapse in the markets. So, you know, even though prices are pumping right now, we don't want it to get out of hand because that's
usually the last stage of a bullish cycle. Just like we saw in mid January, right before Trump was inaugurated, we saw similar signs where meme coins were going nuts.
I hope they don't steal the liquidity there to show like we saw, you know, in the last bullish rally, and hopefully some of these you know, major l ones like eight and Salona, XRP and so forth can really be the ones that are leading the market and not so much the meme coins.
Yeah, totally agree, I'm checking. I would assume that most of the volume is going into bitcoin right now. But this is a fun way to look at the top six market caps of meme coins in pink, Top six AI and Big Data in yellow, Top six Layer ones, which obviously is led by Bitcoin in green, and top six Layer twos in purple. I'll just take layer twos off to make it simpler, and we'll just look at
layer ones versus meme coins for a minute. If we look at the last couple weeks or so, Yeah, we saw some crazy volume here for layer ones, which were likely related to bitcoin on the seventh, and that was right before we took off. Yeah right here, this was like the blast authentication. But look at me. Meme coins. Now they're at their highest point in a couple of weeks by a large margin. Their volume just blasted off
in the last day and a half. So a little bit of a worry because you talked about how it might be stealing some of the spotlight, and that's kind of exactly what's happening. At least we can say, you know, layer ones are also going up a little, just not to the extreme of mean coins.
Ah, Brian, I don't like to see this, even though I you know, I believe in the free market. I don't want I don't want to ban meme coins.
I do.
They need to be regulated a bit, right, but I hate that.
I mean, it's it's a double edged sword. These meme coins bring in more people for the fun and the gamble aspect of their existence, and they can eventually get into, you know, projects that are actually innovating and developing. True, but crypto just has so many weird entry points for people. Some come in for NFTs, for meme coins for the tech, even though I think those are the minority. But whatever the case is, you know, that's the whole point of crypto.
It's a decentralized area, it's anti establishment and lets people invest however they wish to invest. And this is just kind of a reflection of traders' emotions. Really.
Yeah, meme coins feel like last cycles NFTs, right, that was the big thing that brought in people across the board, I mean, thirteen year olds and whoever, right, and kept getting in and it it feels like meme coins are doing the same thing to cycle.
Absolutely. And we had a DeFi and staking period in the early twenty twenties, kind of when covid was hitting. Before that, I remember dose coin back in like t seventeen and eighteen really starting to make a name for itself. So we kind of are seeing history repeat itself now. Anytime we get on a bull cycle like this, it's like the jokes and the fun elements of crypto really start to break out until something stops the fun from happening.
Yeah, Brian, great stuff man. And you know we last time we said, look hopefully next time we meet. You know, big one is coming out of a hole and we're there. But maybe the next time we meet, bigcoin is approaching a new all time high. I don't know, one d your fifteen hundred and twenty k.
Yeah, it could very well happen. We just have to see, you know, let's see if there's a little bit of stagnant period. I'm actually kind of hoping that happens, because that would lead a lot of the retail traders to profit take and just be happy with one hundred k. And if they start to sell their coins to these big whales, the whales will be the ones that will pump us up to uh you know that that COVID one ten k and above.
Oh, absolutely good stuff, man, Thank you so much, Brian, Thanks Tony, Talk soon.
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