Bitcoin, XRP, & Solana Prices Will Pump Higher!🚀

XRP.

In this case, we're using the twenty one day EMA, basically flipping that into support for the first time during this massive acceleration, particularly after several months of just sideways range bound activity.

Right this basically had almost no upside and was just a hell of a lot of chop for five months or so.

Now we get this massive extension, we're consolidating, we're using that twenty one day emas dynamic support. The thing that you should be looking for now, in my opinion, is basically a breakout above this range, basically above two sixty.

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Caleb, great to have you back on, dude. Let's get into it, man.

Every time we do these it's like a bullish signal, so hopefully we get a little bit more fireworks here in the days and weeks ahead, man, But really excited for this.

Let's do it absolutely.

You know, last time we spoke, you know, bitcoin since then went to one hundred and three thousand. The market rallied really strong. We got a bit of a pullback, but today big and creeping back over one hundred k. You know, what was your first impressions about bitcoin crack in one hundred k, I.

Mean huge accomplishment from the perspective of you know, investors who have been in this space for a long time, dreaming about the potential for us to get to one hundred thousand. But you know, it's like that classic meme of like we're all super focused, like looking at the charts, we hit one hundred k, we celebrate, and then we

Right.

We haven't seen necessarily a decisive move in either direction, but I think that's generally to be expected when we get basically a fifty percent move in a month, right or in six weeks. So I think it's beautiful that the market is digesting price action here, it's getting re equilibrated at these levels, and investors now are getting acclimated to price trading here, getting ready hopefully for that next leg higher, right because we're in an up trend, the

Absolutely, So can you show us your bitcoin charts and what you're seeing right now and when we may see the next leg up? You know, is it come January or maybe around Christmas we get that Santa rally as they call.

It, you know.

So yeah, let's pull up, let's pull up some BTC here, I'm gonna share my screen. I have an XRP chart that we're gonna get to which is going to be absolutely fireworks.

So I'm really excited to share that one.

But the big thing for me right here, right now is the fact that bitcoin is basically defending its twenty one day EMA, right. And why is the twenty one day EMA so special?

It's not.

It's just something that I've used for the past eight or nine years as a technician. A lot of people use the twenty day EMA or the SMA. I thought twenty one was a little bit cooler because it's a

Who knows.

In my opinion, really doesn't matter. The fact of the matter is we're in an uptrend. Prices are trending higher. We're using short term dynamic moving averages as support. Within this trend, the market is consolidating. I think this is really important as well. Right, what's the definition of an uptrend? A market that produces higher highs and higher lows. So, by definition, half of the time we need to produce a higher low, right, which by also by definition, means

Who knows, maybe we get.

Another decline back to ninety two, back to ninety three, maybe we get down in ninety.

At the end of the day, guys.

For me, genuinely, it really doesn't matter, because the fact of the matter is we continue to produce higher highs and higher lows, which is an up trend which only occur during bull markets. Bada bing, bada boom. We're in a bull market. I always learned that's the time where you make money as an investor, right, You have to make money as an investor by owning assets during bull markets. So this is the time to sit tight, enjoy the ride,

But this is just what comes with.

The territory, especially if you're a trader in crypto, right, I mean, you have to be prepared for these significant ebbs and flows, liquidations that basically give us.

Fuel for the next leg higher.

So as I look at things right now, man, I swear to God, sometimes I really do feel like a permeable. But you know, it's just we are in the condition that is sufficient to be bullish and is paying off to be bullish. And so until those conditions change, Tony, We've been talking about this every single time I come on the show. When the facts change, when the data moves, when market conditions change, I will also change. It just hasn't been the case that I should be changing my perspective.

So I have to respect that.

Well said, Yeah, and I know that you are data focused. A lot of people, you know you viewed them on social media. They're very sentiment focused, and that's because they don't know how to interpret the data. And I know, like I follow your newsletter, and you include a lot of things with the macro and so forth too, And folks have to really change their mindset from the mainstream financial news and look at data and see what story is being told versus narratives, for sure.

And one of the things that I say is I promise you I could come on here and sound ultra barish.

The data exists for me to come on.

Here or any podcast for that matter, and sound ultra bearish. There are a myriad of data points for the economy that don't look great, that look outright bearish. But if we want to be objective analysts, and if we want to use macro, if we want to use this data point, if we want to use that data point, we need to come to the weight of the evidence. Our conclusion needs to be based on the weight of the evidence. So again, I can focus on these things and sound

Right.

So you know, there's a lot of these people I wan't name names, not this time at least, who only focus on one side and that's on both sides of the spectrum here, right, But I promise you one thing, I will always come on here and hopefully look at the weight of the evidence and an objective conclusion based on the weight of that evidence to guide my decision making in the market. And then on top of that, you know we've also talked about this before, right, is

M Yeah, you've been spot on, man. What do you think the next major target is for bigcoin? Let's say we consolidate here right, and then we start moving up. What do you think that? And I know some people use fibonacci, some people use Elliott wave, what do you think it might be?

So, I mean, we've talked about in the past on my target for this breakout move was gonna get us to basically ninety five k let me just get this prime them ready before I share my screen and look, you know we've we've hit that level.

Now I'll share my screen. Bought a bing, bought a boom.

Okay, So you know, if we take the high to the low of that March to August consolidation in logarithmic scale, that fibonacci got us to ninety five thousand, let's just round up a little bit, so we're now holding above that level. It could even make the case that we've

Thousand, six hundred.

I don't think we're gonna have a straight shot of a forty percent gain from here to get there. It's going to be ebbs and flows en route. You know, I've been very vocal that my price target for this cycle is at least one seventy five. So that's telling you at least where I think we're going long term the cycle over the course of the next let's call it,

This one's this gets a little tricky here.

We could produce a Fibonacci from the high to the low of the price action just a few days ago, and that gets us to one twelve, And so I

And then if we want to be.

You know, what's the word that I'm looking here, If we want to be hi, I'm literally blanking on this way, my bad. If we want to be really optimistic, though, we can target that one forty two, and I think, you know, there is a statistical or technical justification for us to get there, And in my opinion, it's just a matter of when, not if.

So let's see how it plays out.

You know, we've seen some historical patterns with seasonality, right, and that come Q four, you see these strong rallies usually into January, some of it continues, but then sell it may go away summertime, but then come back September October. Do you think it might play out like that? And obviously we don't have a crystal ball, but that this thing you mentioned, you know, eight to what ten months or so, that this thing might play out till late twenty twenty five.

Yeah, I mean I think we're I think we're going to play out until late twenty twenty five. We could go longer, right, I think famous last words. But this cycle quite literally is different with the ETFs in place, and I think with Sailor executing his strategy at scale, and now a lot of these bitcoin mining companies trying to do the same and replicate that. And so I know, for example, yesterday Microsoft voted against considering bitcoin as an investable asset.

That's okay, it's just.

A matter of time in my opinion, but probably not happening this cycle. I would urge investors to be essentially to pump the brakes on that narrative. We're going to get those announcements that companies are going to be voting to consider it as an investable asset.

But I hope I'm wrong.

I hope I'm wrong here, but I don't think we're actually going to get any of those approved. And so, you know, I think that the maturity of bitcoin is continuing to improve, right in every cycle. This is true, which is that it's more mature than it was last cycle. The investor base is larger, there's been more adoption, the

Right.

So typically on average, the Bitcoin bowl market peaks eighteen months after the having and so that puts us a basically November of twenty twenty five, which means we basically have eleven months to rock and roll on average. So maybe we peak eight months from now, maybe we peak twelve months from now, who knows, We'll see. But it's an important data point to reference for sure.

Yeah, absolutely, And you know, as you always say, we can change our minds based on the data, right and if things change course, but whatever reason, macroeconomic factor is, black Swan events, whatever it may be, you know, all those things can change the timeline exactly with regards to you all, coit and can we look at ethereum because we know eth recently just broke through four thousand again, but you know, with the pullback went back below and

Sure.

Yeah, Look, I mean I think EF looks good. I've been talking about this now for a while, which is, even if Eth improves, I think Solana still has the ability to be the faster horse in this race. And so you know, we've been talking about this soule eath chart now for quite some time.

Let's talk about it. This is what I'm seeing on soul Eth.

Right, So again, we had this beautiful breakout to new all time highs which occurred in August.

On a relative basis, we cooled back down.

This is where I did my rotation out of Ethereum into Solana. That was when Solona was trading between one twenty and then we had this beautiful breakout, retest rebound set up and made new highs on several occasions. Right, and look, I love seeing Ethereum participate in is rally. It's about time, right. You know, I'm not against Ethereum. We've talked about it again in the past. I think it was on the last show. I am not bearish

But what that's allowed, what that's set.

Up for is once again another breakout, retest, rebound opportunity with a lot of clarity. This time, we really got this beautiful extension. Now we cool back down, Guys, what I'm seeing right now is thirty one point six percent implied relative upside for Solana relative to Ethereum. Right, so this is a significant amount of potential keyword, potential outperformance that can happen if this structure holds.

Right.

So, again, as I look at this market right now, let's also talk about Solana.

What are we seeing here. We're seeing so.

Aana rebound on its fifty five day EMA, rebounding on the prior year to date highs. Right, beautiful price structure here. So not only on a relative basis are we seeing this, but we're also seeing it on an absolute basis. Just looking at Solana, we have the breakout the extension. Now we're getting the rebound, and now we're getting that potential excuse me, the retest, and now we're getting that potential

Right and essentially saying there's higher upside for Solana versus ETH. But it's not saying that the etherorem is not going to move it is. It is just the returns, the gains, the percentage gains is going to be lower on eth.

Correct And by the way, if I'm wrong on that, I find out really quickly.

Let me just share my screen on it. Again.

Is because of the fact that you know, we're right on that level for soul eth. If we fall below this range and we fall down into this zone right here, that would I just got rid of it. If we fall below this you know, dotted zone that I just put on there, that would look like a failed breakout, which means that Ethereum is continuing to gain ground against Solana and that my thesis is incorrect. Right, So again

Right. So I'm totally fine with this.

And but this is where I think adding to Solana makes a lot of sense.

So Solana, I know, I think we had talked about a price prediction like nine hundred one thousand, I think around right, you're still holding that potential all time high.

Yeah, you know, I think when we had talked about that price target, I think BTC was trading somewhere around sixty thousand, right, And I was saying, look, if we get to my one hundred and seventy five thousand price target.

BTC basically has three x implied upside.

And that could maybe tell us that, you know, Solana has maybe five x relative upside, and at the time it was trading around one hundred and fifty. So you just take five times one fifty, you get to seven fifty, eight hundred. You can maybe get to nine hundred if we use a six x multiplier, So around that range to me, still makes a lot of sense.

Let's suck XRP do it. It's going bonkers. I don't think anybody saw it coming. It's back in the top three. It passed Salana on the market capitalist but we know these things fluctuate. What do you seeing on the charts? Is it looking bullish after that parabolic move or bears?

Look?

I think XRP looks fantastic. I got into it late, but I traded it on that upside move and I'm out of it right now, so I don't have a position in XRP. Congrats to everyone who has been in it. I think this is the key structure you really want to be paying attention to. First and foremost, we have a bullflag type dynamic. I often don't draw my bull flags the same way that most people do. In this case,

Right, this basically had.

Almost no upside and was just a hell of a lot of chop for five months or so. Now we get this massive extension, we're consolidating, we're using that twenty one day EMA as dynamic support. The thing that you should be looking for now, in my opinion, is basically a breakout above this range, basically above two sixty, and that would give confirmation not only in terms of making a higher high versus this price, level right here, but

Up the way I expect it to.

If we fall below that twenty one day EMA and have a daily closed below it, you might want to consider reducing some exposure. If you're more of a trader, If you're an investor and you want to sit tight, by all means.

Do whatever you want. I can't tell you what to do, but.

I think that price structure as a whole, that's bullish price structure. We get this massive move, massive multiplier. Now we consolidate, we use a short term moving average is dynamic support. We start to get lift off, and now we look for the breakout. We look for that continuation move. I think that comes probably pretty soon.

Do you have a all time high price addiction for this cycle? Anything you could share in the charge town listen higher.

I haven't done this specific number on this, so look I think the interesting thing about Ripple is, and I'm not plugged in to the fundamental dynamics here, but I see these headlines right. So not only do we have some different ETF applications coming down the pipeline, I think it was yesterday that whatever the stable coin is called for Ripple is now coming out or is getting approval or something like that. Again, don't quote me on this, Tony. You probably know a hell of a lot more than

So I think, you know, the bias has to be up to the upside.

But you know, Tony, you could ask me about any alt coin over the next six months. I think it's going a lot higher.

Yeah, well it said total all coin market. Can we look at that and to see where I think I think we rejected a bit right at the If I'm not mistaken. If I was reading the charge correctly at a near d revisiting the all time high from twenty twenty one.

Maybe we did. Let's go over this.

I have another great chart here for total three in particular, looking at total three, let's see, I want to make sure we're doing x stable coins.

This is it right here.

So first and foremost, we have this beautiful breakout. I know I can't draw the horizontal range, but that's as good as we're going to get for the sake of this conversation. So beautiful break out there, and we got that extension. This price structure, to me, looks fantastic. You might be very curious. What is this statistical indicator that I have here in the lower bound of this chart. This is the one hundred and eighty eight day Williams percent are oscillator.

One hundred and eighty eight.

Days sounds super random, like I just pulled it out of a hat. But guess what, guys, it's half of a year, right, There's three hundred and sixty five days in a year. You divide that by two, it gets you know, one hundred and eighty seven and a half.

So let's round up. Let's just call it one eighty eight.

So we're right here at one hundred and eighty eight days on that Williams percent our oscillator. The thing that's standing out to me, guys, I want to highlight here when we get this over sold flash that occurred in the middle of last September of last year. What occurred after that was this massive over sold reading. I consider these to be momentum thrusts, right, and the way I see this is excessive amount of demand coming into this market.

Right, And look, I.

Want you to hi, I want you to pay attention to this as well. Right, I've drawn this kind of blue resistance range where we got that massive extension, we cooled down for a little bit, and then we finally got that breakout move that gave us that next leg higher from basically November December of twenty twenty three into those highs in March of this year of twenty twenty four. So what are we seeing right now? We're seeing something

I don't think, you know, we'll see when we.

Get there, right, I don't know, But all I know right now is we're going through this overbought period, and there's nothing bearish about being overbought right. And so this this for me right here, is giving once again an all clear in terms.

Of all coins looking really, really strong.

So being positioned in Altsier in my opinion, continues to make a hell of a lot of sense. And by the way, I'm someone who a month a month ago was not saying this. So I've now shifted my perspective based on the data, looking at the statistical indicators, looking at bitcoin dominance rollover and saying, hey, I think we should be listening to this price is the arbiter of truth and it's telling us a very important signal. We can either ignore it or we could try our best to take advantage of it.

And manage risk.

And every single time, you guys, I'm gonna take advantage of trends and try to manage risk.

Like it's really that simple, right.

I try to find correlations, I try to find signals, I try to find opportunities, and then I just manage risk.

That's it.

From the macro standpoint. Right with FED rate cuts and we got CPI numbers, I think today, are you concerned about anything or you think it's just business as usual, and this bull market continues into you know, the blow off top, and then things start to change.

Data looks good, you know.

So I continue to see the macroeconomic environment I've been saying it now for two years, resilient and dynamic. I know that the pace of disinflation is certainly moderated, and basically the year over year inflation readings have been flat to slightly higher, but in my opinion, not to a degree that would back the FED out of the rate cut regime. So, you know, I think we're going to be getting that cut. When is the when's the next FED meeting?

Is it? Is it this week? Yeah?

It's either this week or next week.

Maybe I think I think it might be today and tomorrow and they're coming out.

I don't know. Don't quote me on this.

This is literally how little I care about the Fed, right here, right now. And this is someone who studied the FED for eleven years saying this. I think, right here, right now, we know for a fact that the FED is going to be cutting rates.

We are in this rate cut regime.

Cycle, and barring a material acceleration of inflation, the FED is going to keep cutting rates. Right, and so on a on a rate of change basis, you know, the shift from a rate hike regime to a rate cut regime is a creative to asset prices so long as the broader macroeconomic environment continues to be resilient and dynamic. The non farm payroll data came out last week looked fantastic. The ADP private payroll data came out last week looks fantastic.

Right.

We've been in a bull market, we've been in an up trend, and for me, I'd much rather trust the market than trust these specific data points, because the market and prices are the arbiter of truth.

Do you think you know? This is saying markets are forward looking in despite you know, some of the things people may highlight. The overarching theme is the easy money cycle cutting rates, and we know, the quantitative easing, whatever they do with liquidity injections from Janet yelling and so forth. The markets know they're going to keep doing these things because if they don't, we're gonna have bigger problems.

Right, Yeah, it's a possibility and like, look, I see a lot of people on X or on different podcasts talking about you know, they believe we're going to go through some massive liquidity injection, some massive liquidity boom, as if the FED is going to launch this bazooka of QE. That's not my belief, right, All I believe is that the FED is going to moderately cut interest rates back

Caleb, always great insights, my friend, appreciate your knowledge. Thank you so much for joining me.

Great to be here, man, Talk soon.