¶ Intro
Hey everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as well as a thumbs up button and leave a common blow. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star reading and review. Okay, folks,
¶ Bitcoin analysis 04:44 BlackRock Bitcoin ETF milestone
could Bitcoin this coming week break eighty thousand dollars and potentially go to eighty five thousand dollars. Well, there's certainly a probability. Obviously, it's not guaranteed. We're looking at the charts, we're looking at the data points of the metrics and so on and so forth. So right now at the time of recording, Bitcoin at seventy seven, five hundred and
eighty nine dollars on the daily chart. The mac d's losing some momentum, you know, we're starting to see a move towards a bearish cross, but it's not confirmed as yet. And Bitcoin, even though the RSI is not in the over bought zone, it is approaching it. So there could be a final push this week or within the next
two weeks before a rollover. I do believe all coins will follow bitcoins move if it does break eighty and continue to maybe eighty five, and I think we could see a nice little mini rally for alts, but again not guaranteed. We are still in uncertain times with the Iran war, and you never know what news items could hit the market and all of a sudden things start to drop. However, as we've been watching, they will weekly charted.
The higher timeframe looks really good. Guys. That is flipped bullish, so I don't anticipate that flipping back bearsh immediately. There's usually a span a time span for these things to play out. When you think about what market makers are doing in much more and the RSI is nowhere near the overbought zone, so that's a very very good sign. Not to mention, we have a CME gap around eighty
two thousand eighty four thousand. Here one analyst is highlighted that despite the twenty percent move in April, funding is still negative and spot premium is still positive. No signs of froth. So the market has gotten frothy with this move. It's been a slow grinding move up, especially with the chop we saw with the Iran war news that was affecting markets. So let's see what we can do here and how high we can get. Obviously, the higher the better. We got to keep an eye on the stock market,
which continues to make new highs. Bowlers are still in control there. But the stock market is in the overbought zone. So while it can hang out there for a while, we've seen it historically, it's usually followed by a drop, so a very strong V shaped recovery, but anticipate a drop. And the same thing with the NASDAC. It's mirroring the S and P five hundred, also in the overbod zone, but there's not a Bearers cross on the macde. Bulls
are still in control. So let's see if Bitcoin can catch up here, become overbought officially, you know, breakthrough eighty go to eighty five k, and like I said, I anticipate that we may see some al starch to rally XRP soalana E theorem and more, and that would be really nice, not a move to new all time highs in my opinion. And then there is the probability of once Bitcoin hits that you know, respective top for this rally, it rolls over and it could potentially again, potentially, I'm
not saying I want it to happen. I'm not saying
it is going to happen. It could potentially go down to as low as fifty K, so we have to be mentally prepared for that, or it could go retest the lows that it hit a few months back of around fifty a k. Now, if that was the bottom of the market and we're just retesting it, you know, maybe that's good, right, and then we can just start working our way up slowly and steadily as we had later into the year and into the midterms, which I believe Trump will not want to go into the elections
with the markets down and the dumps, So let's see what happens. His new FED chair is also going to be coming in pretty soon, and we'll see what updates they make fiscally. That could really, you know, have markets rally after they bottom out, So we shall see if the market hasn't bottom already. Again. There's a lot of scenario here, and smart educated investors have to be prepared for all these different scenarios because we don't have a crystal ball, and we have to look at the probabilities
of which scenario can play out now. One good sign is that bitcoin whales are accumulating rapidly, data from Saniment. Many of you know Santiment is a partner of the channel. I often have Brian from Santiment on biweekly to talk about these different metrics. They're highlighting that whales are accumulating and here you can see on my screen for those of you watching on YouTube and rumble that the whale accumulation is on the rise. That's a very very good sign, guys.
So again this correlates to this rally that's happening and help could these activities help push bitcoin up to that eighty five k range? And speaking of whales, black rocks. Bitcoin ETF just hit a massive milestone that proves crypto is now a mainstream bet so I bit options open interest top dera bit on Fridays, signaling rapid institutional adoption of regulated crypto derivatives in the United States. Positioning differs across markets. Ibit flows appears slightly more bullish than Derribit's
BTC options despite similar scale. Ibit and derribit cater to different investor bases, So we're starting to see activity here, guys. Wail accumulation options, and all these things looking good. So let's see what this week brings us. Another factor is that bitcoin funding rate is extremely negative, so the lungs versus shorts. So there's a lot of shorts right now, a lot of bears out there. They want it, you know, to get ready. They think it's going to go dumb
down right away. But we could see the market do a short squeeze and the bears get wrecked. Right. That's possible. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, right, so please understand me. Sometimes when I make these statements, people just only hear certain words because they have their bias. They only want to hear things that confirm their bias versus seeing the full landscape, which is what I'm trying to share with you guys. So here one analysa that big bitcoin funding
rate is extremely negative. Not sure if we have ever seen funding so negative before. If bitcoin starts to pump with all these leverage short positions, we could see a massive short squeeze to one hundred k quickly. That's a probability. Again, I don't know if it gets there. I'm more in the camp of eighty to eighty five potentially a week to ninety and then roll over. So we shall see another good sign, folks. Tether is minting billions in USDT again,
¶ Tether USDT mint and freeze
and we've seen historically a lot of the stable coin liquidity makes its way into the market. So just over the past few days, over the past week, they've minted over two billion, I think close to three billion in USDT, so we can keep watching that and see how the stable coin liquidity is looking. So one of the things we were watching recently is USDT dominance, you know, that's been breaking down, and obviously that stable coin liquidity is making its way into the market, so there's an inverse
correlation obviously. So we'll see how this plays out this week because it can help give confirmation as to what the prices may do next. So we got to be patient here. Now, speaking of Tether, they have conducted their largest asset freeze ever, freezing three hundred and forty four million USDT on tron and the reason apparently some of these funds are tied to Iran, so there's a lot of Tether fudsters out there. But Tether's been working with
the US government. They've been freezing accounts in certain amounts of stable coins that are tied to bad actors. This is what we've been talking about for a long time. Bad actors are going to use any medium they can to do bad things. But that doesn't mean we have to shut the whole blockchain down or all of crypto. We have to go after the bad actors, folks. Quick word from our sponsor. This episode is brought to you by bitco, the trusted infrastructure behind the digital asset economy.
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¶ Crypto industry Clarity Act
the Blockchain Association, the Crypto Council for Innovation, joined by a broad coalition of more than one hundred and twenty organization across the digital asset ecosystem, urge the Senate Banking Committee to move forward with a markup on market structural legislation. So they sent a full letter and write up and so forth. So that's a lot of folks participating here.
So the pressure is on here and great to see that these folks are being proactive, you know, again, putting the pressure in the Senate to hopefully get this markup done because the banks are lobbying hard and you can see, well for those of you watching, it might be a little bit hard to see, but you know, you got Tim Scott, Cynthia Lummis, common names we know pro crypto. But who's also in there? Elizabeth Warren And it says the honorable Elizabeth Warren. I don't know about the honorable part,
but I digress. But we got to get this bill done, guys, we got to get it done. Look, it's not the end of the world if it's not pass But it's going to set us back a lot, right, because the bill can still make it forward let's say next year, but it's gonna be much harder. But if you can get it, you know, before the August recess this year, that would be really really good. So fingers crossed they
can get it done. But all the major cocrypto companies participated, changing Noalysis, Coinbase, OKX, you got Ripple, all the big names, crypto dot com so far, even I mean a bank getting involved here. So this is huge and let's see what the folks in the Senate are able to come up with. Now, folks, some not so good news. This
¶ France Crypto investors info sold
is very concerning And for those of you who live in France, this is a warning to you. So a French tax official was arrested for selling crypto investors' home addresses and financial records to criminal networks. Forty one kidnappings followed, one every two point five days since January twenty twenty six. The criminals didn't need to hack anything, they bought a list from some one inside the government. France is the
most dangerous country in the world right now. If you hold crypto and someone knows that this is some Mario the fall on X. But I'm sure many of you have seen the news over the past year or more, a lot of kidnappings, a lot of people getting attacked in the street right a crypto CEOs and so forth. And you know, I was scratching my head when I when I saw those news items, like wait, why is it just happening in France, Like what's happening in France?
Something's weird there. But we didn't know, you know, that the information was being sold. So if you're in France, you know, just be careful. Look, I don't think they're attacking the common crypto investors. They're pretty much going after people who have high net worth amounts of crypto or well known you know, as far as crypto CEOs or executives.
But still, you know, if you have a sizeable amount of crypto, those of you watching and listening in France, just be careful because your information was most likely sold to these criminal networks, which is crazy. And again, forty one kidnappings, I mean, just crazy, crazy stuff. I think the high profile kidnapping, if I'm not mistaken, was one of the Ledger executives and they did some I think they tortured him or and his wife or something like that.
But don't quote me on that, but if I remember correctly that that was pretty crazy. But be careful out there, folks. Okay,
¶ 3F Morpho $3 Million Tokenized assets
moving ahead, three F, built on Morpho, raises four million dollars to offer a leverage exposure to tokenize assets. So we continue to see building investing in much more so. Three F has raised four million dollars in funding led by Maven eleven with participation from f Prime, GSR and others. Built on Morpho, three F will offer leverage exposure to tokenize rerail world assets, with launch expected in the second
quarter of the year. Now I'm not sure if how many of you were, but I had interviewed a founder of MORFO. I think it was last year. They're working with coinbase to power coinbases a crypto lending like bitcoin lending and so forth. So it's really great to see that they're getting the ability to integrate tokenized real world assets in being able to leverage dad and do different
things with it. Here's some contextead of funding. It says that total includes a seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars pre seed round and a three point three million dollars seed round. Sonya Kim, co founder of three f toll the block. The pre seed fundraising began in July twenty twenty five and closed in November twenty twenty five, while the seed round started in November twenty twenty five and
closed in March twenty twenty six. Kim said, so both rounds were structured as simple agreements for future equity or safes, safes with token warrants on a one to one equity to token conversion basis. Kim said, she declined to disclose evaluation. That's interesting. So you get tokens which are aligned to equity. Very interesting and I think, by the way, this type of setup is the future with fundraising and how companies may go public and things along those lines. Now, folks,
¶ Litecoin Privacy later Exploit
there's some crazy news around like cooin. Like coin rewrites three hours of history to undo its first major privacy layer exploit. So the like Coin Foundation said Saturday that a zero day bug enabled a denial of service attack against major mining polls. A thirteen block reorganization reversed the
invalid transactions on the canonical like coin chain. Attackers use the more than three hour fork window to attempt double spends across crosschain swap protocols, some of which have reported losses. The Foundation said the bug is now fully patched. So this is some rough news for the folks on the like coin side. And look, we're still early where a
lot of things have to be fine tuned. And I I'm not sure if this is the only exploit for like cooin, but I haven't heard of any in the past, so this may be the first with you know, things they're doing on the privacy side. So pretty rough here anyway, folks, that's the news. Thank you so much for tuning in. Guys, please be sure to hit the thumbsub button and subscribe if you having it. As yet, I will be traveling tomorrow through Wednesdays, or there's going to be limited content.
Just heads up. We'll still be having some interviews posted, but news recap episodes are going to be limited and I should be back in full force on Thursday, so it just heads up on that, and guys, be sure to support the podcast by checking out my free email news that are on substack. It's one hundred percent free. Be sure to grab a copy of my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback, in digital and check out my
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