BITCOIN CRASHES HARD AS CRYPTO BEAR MARKET KICKS OFF!

I'm getting this out late to you. It's been a crazy day, both for the markets but also personally, like my father in law had to go to the er, get surgery and all these things. So lot's happening on the family side. But man, bitcoin was in free fall today. It's bloody out there. So let's look at the chart. So bitcoin at the time we're recording at sixty four, three hundred and sixty eight dollars. Today it wiked down

to below sixty k, so eighties. Bloody out there. But guys, you know, if we put the emotions and did the pression and the anxiety and the uncertainty to decide, and you just look at the chart, we are so over sold. I mean, it's crazy. We're at levels even worse than like COVID and FTX and so forth. And it's not like there were some major catalysts like an FTX, like a COVID. Right, those are shock factors that have big mainstream narratives and news cycles and affect people in different ways.

None of that happened. Obviously. October tenth, we had that liquidation event when Trump tweeted out about the one hundred percent terrorists on China. He obviously reverted on that, but it caused some sort of cascading effect that has been going down and down and down at bigcoin is falling so fast. I mean, I don't think I've ever seen it fall that fast outside of a black swan event, right, And look, some people are saying, maybe it's the Epstein

file release that is the catalyst the black swan. I don't know, it doesn't seem that way. Maybe that's just the cover story. But there's some manipulation here, you know that. Look the markets right now, based on the economy and so forth, retail is not really here. So let's just wrap it, right. It could be simple as that, And again the cover story could be whatever it is. But you know, this is Big one's largest one day drop in history, down nearly ten thousand dollars and still dropping

like a stone. Joe CONSORTI said here, and he said, it's starting to smell like capitulation. So guys, we are in extreme oversold territory, even on the weekly chart. So all these things are looking like a relief rally. Something, some sort of bounce is going to come. Because markets don't go in the same direction forever. Right there is a point of exhaustion for the sellers, and you have a contrary move to the herd because everybody's bearish right now, everybody.

There's not one bull left, and I think it's safe to say we are in a bear market. And all the levels we were looking at have been invalidated, a lot of the thesis and much more so. It is what it is, folks. This is the market. So let me sure some other things here. The bitcoin two week RSI is the most oversold in HISS. In addition, we are so over sold it's worse than the FTX crash, the COVID crash, the lunar crash, even the October ten crash which started all of this. So it is wild, guys.

So I'm expecting some sort of reversal. Now it's funny. I was looking at this data from Santiment over the past week, as you know, the market was starting to correct and so forth, and I saw the whales started distributing the Whale wallet data, which was in accumulation for a good amount of time. They started dumping and retail started picking up. And that is a clear sign. That is a clear sign that the whales are like, ahh,

we're out of here. So that's where this fores selling I think, is you know, the whales just saying, yeah, we're giving up on the market until this whole thing resets and there's more capitulation. Because throughout Bitcoin's history and just alone in this cycle, we've seen that when the opposite is happening, when retail's giving up and their wallets are going down, that's when the whales start buying and

then they pump the markets. Well, over the past a couple months or so, that has not been happening, and retail has been picking up. A lot of people have been you know, buying and still believing. And the whales, while they started accumulating, I think they noticed, well, the retail is not capitulating, we're going to do the opposite.

So the data shows that and it's some sentiment. You know, Me and Brian from Santiman have covered this in the most recent episodes of the dichotomy between you know, these two Wallea types and how that affects the markets. Now, you know, as mentioned, I believe some sort of relief rallies coming. How high we go? I don't know, guys, and even Capo, the master of the Bears, the guy who's often bearished a lot. He's saying, look, main support zone,

reach and confluence. In regards to the twenty twenty one highs and all that jazz. He says, lots of liquidity above and shorts are aggressive here. Sentiment can't be more negative. We're in extreme fear again, depression and much more so. Some sort of relief rallies coming here again doesn't mean that we are in a bull market. Is just a relief rally and Bitcoin could go lower. But obviously, timeline wise, the Fourier cycle played out to a tee. It just

it had different characteristics. No your foric blow off top, no all season right. You did not see the common things that we saw in the past, and that could mean that in this cycle we saw the law of diminishing returns play out here for bitcoin, So could that be reflected in the downside as well, that you had diminished returns to the upside, but also you might get less volatility to the downside, right, I think that's plausible.

And look, you're gonna see bears are going to do their victory lap and saying hah, I told you and so forth, and we're going to ten k and they're going to say all types of outlandish things. But again, if you didn't have the same type of upside we've seen in the past, I don't believe you're gonna see eighty ninety percent draw down, honestly, but I could be wrong. Look, right, I don't have a crystal ball, but if you know, the things we're seeing are very different than the previous

cycles with bloff tops, euphoria, retail all season, and much more. So. What's my strategy, guys. I'm gonna look to take a little bit of profits if we have some sort of relief rally, you know, maybe bitcoin goes back to one hundred k, so we take some profits there. But I'm not liquidating everything. I've often stated that I'm not in a position where I need the money. Some of you may be right and you may have to liquidate more. I'm just you know, sharing my opinion and what's happening

with me. But I will take a little bit off the table, and I plan to buy the all coin dips as we go lower. So buy the blood in the streets, right. Obviously, that's not financial advice. Do your own research, do what's best for you. I'm just saying what has worked for me, you know, is buying those lows. So for example, I was buying the FTX crash in

November and December. You guys may recall I posted the receipts of those purchases a Bitcoin and other all coins, So my portfolio based on those entry prices is up and I'm gonna look to take some profits, but I'm still holding the majority of my bag for the next bull market. So I've often stated we got to have a macro view, and that's the approach I'm taking. Now, you are free to do whatever you want. I'm just

sharing my opinion and playing the cycles accordingly. Obviously, this cycle did not turn out to how we expected it, even with ETFs, all coin ETFs, even with the Genius Act passing, and of course we didn't get the crypto market structure, and I've often stated that I think Trump launching the meme coins kind of hurt us, even though you know, overall I think he's been net positive, but

that that kind of stole the all season. Not to mention, it alienated a lot of people who are let's say on the Democrat side, right, who may have been interested in crypto and was like, wait a minute, I don't want to get involved with Donald Trump's involved in this. Look, that's how human behaviors and the nature of politics works, right, So I think that hurt us. I think that a

bit of the tariff stuff hurt us as well. And overall, economically, you know, people didn't have as much money to just go buy a bunch of all coins, and then you had competing markets such as AI taking away a lot of liquidity and things like that. So the cycle was different a bit rough, right, But like I said, I

got the macro view. Crypto is getting the most adoption we've ever seen in history of this acid class and industry, with huge institutions, you know, getting involved, and I do believe once they are fully positioned, once the market structure has passed, they're gonna pump the hell out of it. I think now they're just dipping their toes in the water and they need full clarities. Know this is how this cycle ends, which man just disappointing and brutal as well.

I mean, it's fores selling right. Here's what Benjamin Cohen, he has a huge following, huge YouTube channel to check him out. He said, one common pattern in midterm years for bitcoin is that we see a lot of weakness going into early February, followed by strength into March, then weakness again going into April slash May. Doesn't mean it plays out exactly like that, but I think, you know, given how oversold we are, given the sentiment, I think we're gonna see a bound, some sort of relief rally.

So I think he's right. February is maybe where we have the bottoming out. We started climbing out the hole, do a relief rally, and then like you said, here it come April May, we start dumping down to lower lows. Right, that's certainly certainly possible. Now even the ETFs are taking a big hit, so black Rock Spot Bitcoin ETF posts ten billion dollars daily volume record, as bitcoin records maj Intra dated the clock. Now, you would want this record

to be broken on the upside when we're pumping. Unfortunately it's broken on the downside with a lot of outflows. So everybody is taking a beating here. Guys. It is brutal out there, man. But you know this is where again you don't want to catch a falling knife. But when there's blood on the streets, when everybody's afraid, this is the time. It is the big contrarian move. Warren Buffett has talked about it. But the masses, you know,

they'll see this and start panic selling again. If you need the money, you need to exit the market, and yeah, you do what you got to do, But I'm talking about if you don't necessarily need the money now, like you know, there's not some emergency or whatever, and you don't have a long term view. You're just jumping in and out of pumps and dumps right then, you're just

moving by the emotions in the market. You're doing it wrong, right, So it's it's tough out there, and guys, obviously you know there's a lot of controversy around bind It's a lot of fud and in fact people have been withdrawing their funds from Binance, So I would be careful with some of the exchanges. You know, we don't know if they're going to halt withdrawals. Even Binance had to temporarily halt withdrawals. They had a temporary disruption, So just be

careful out there. There's reports coming out on different sources. And this is why I'm a big believer in self custody. I've been talking about it for years. So I custody the majority of my crypto assets on hardware wallets, and specifically I use Treasure. You know, they make great will hardware wallets to make, which makes it easy for you to custody. So I've been a user of the Treasure Save five and Save seven and Treasure. They've been around

for years. They started this, guys, they started it back in twenty thirteen. They created the hardware wallets and the seed phrase setup. Their hardware wallets are open source. That's how much they trust the code and folks. You know, they support all the major coins such as Bitcoin, Etherorem, Salona, XRP, and much more, even new tokens, and they have a big discount starting today, it's a Valentine's Day Special up to twenty percent off until February fifteen, so make sure

you check it out. You can get the devices at a discount, and it's an easy way and safe way to just custody your assets and you'll be able to sleep at night, especially if you have the long term view and you are looking at you know, storing your

assets safely. You don't have to worry about exchange problems or halting or withdraws and all these things because you never know when those things can happen, especially when you have you know, the kind of the assets dumping at this rate and people are panicking and they're trying to get their you know, stuff off the exchanges, it could cause problems. So anyway, check out Treasure again. They got the Valentine's Day special going on so you can grab

some devices. I'm a user once again and a believer in this product and it's pretty great. And they have the new version, the Treasure Saved seven, which is quantum ready and much more. So check it out. All the links will be in the description. Now I want to share what Mike Belshie had to say. He's the CEO Bitgo.

They just went public and bit goes one of the top crypto custodians in the market, and Mike is a crypto og and he was building in Web one and Web two point zero as well, So he tweeted out, this is my fifth major crypto crash. If it's your first, I know it feels devastating, but nothing about bitcoins value proposition changed in the last thirty days. The infrastructure got better, the adoption grew, real use cases have emerged from payments

with stable coins to tokenize equities. Crypto will come back stronger. So absolutely agree with this, but you know, in the moment, in the emotions and everything that's going on, it's tough, right. I'm avoiding looking at my portfolio, guys. And again I've been here since twenty sixteen, so I am certainly not immune from the emotions that come. But I tried to.

But I've learned to master that in the sense of not panicking and then looking at, okay, where where can I take entries or get entries at, you know, with some of these coins. And then final news item, get guys, Anchorage Digital, which is actually a competitor bit go. They have announced a one hundred million dollar strategic equity investment from Tether, implying a valuation of four point two billion dollars, so they may get or go try to go public

at some point. Diogo Monica, who's the co founder anchor, has said, even more exciting is the fact that these one hundred million dollars are being used for the first ever employee tender offer, providing liquidity to long tenured team members who have helped build a company over nearly a decade. So very very interesting. Let's continue to see how this market pans out in the coming days and weeks. Like I said, we are so over sold, so I believe some sort of relief is coming, but the thesis of

the bull market continuing that is done. We are in a bear market, guys. The structure has broken. So it's pretty brutal, pretty tough out there, and I would love to hear what you guys think. I know I'm gonna hear it from the bears in the comment section doing their victory laps, and by all means, go ahead, guys, But remember markets are cyclical, right Bulls won't last forever, Bears don't last forever, so the bulls will return, But

right now, it's the bear show. All right, guys, be sure to support the podcast by subscribing to my free email newsletter. Grab a copy of my book on Amazon. It's available on paperback in digital, and check out my course at mycryptocurse dot com. Folks, thank you so much for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you all later