¶ Intro
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward on your weight in. Please let that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a common below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks, we've got to take a look at the price here
¶ Bitcoin analysis
because bitcoin is below one hundred and fifteen thousand dollars. Once again, we're seeing red on the charts. Everything's bleeding out right now. But this should come as no surprise because what have I been telling you guys over the past two weeks on the podcast in my newsletter that on the weekly chart the MAC these shows the bears are in control. And I didn't like what I was seeing on a chart. I said that so many times. Right, I have the receipts. So the point is that data
was showing us what's the common. Sometimes it does take some time for these things to play out, but it's all cyclical, right. I often highlight the MACD showing where bulls are in control and now bears are in control. But that's okay. This is just short term, and we've seen when bitcoin becomes over sold. You know, we look at the RSI and the daily chart, it's heading back to that over soul zone, which is about thirty or below,
and then we're going to bounce from there. So the market may need to feel a bit of fear, right, you have the sentiment reset and then the bulls takeover. It's the same cyclical pattern. But the important thing is from the macro, the bull market is still intact. Our support levels are there, our macro factors are there, our signals are there. The things that have flash at the top have not flash right. So it's just the patience part of this market. So this is where I know
it's hard. I know it's boring. I know some of you are losing confidence, but don't be emotional, be educated. This is why I'm sharing the data points with you, why I've been sharing the mac D again. It's in my newsletter as well. Right my last newsletter I put that I gave the warning saying, hey, look, bears are still in control here, so just shouldn't come as a surprise. But I know, you know, it's hard to see the market go through these turmoil and boring and volatile moments,
but this is how you make money. You got to stomach through this and you've got to be patients. So right now you got to use a lot of patients because you know, it's been pretty boring. Nothing much happening, but we're gonna get back on track, so don't get shook out. That's what the whales and market makers want you to do. If we look at global liquidity, as I've been sharing with you guys, it is hitting new
all time highs. This thing is not over. In addition, we continue to see bitcoin whales based on on chain data with wallets of ten or more bitcoin continue to accumulate. They're not dumping. So again, these are just a couple of metrics. There are more, but I just want to highlight that everything is still intact. Just the short term. We got in the micro, we got volatility we got to deal with and we've got to be patient. But
the macro everything is still on track. And you know, we've been looking at even the stock market, you know that has been hitting new highs some P five hundred and that's that and much more. And as I've been stating recently, you know, gold was leading the market, as we've seen many times throughout this bull market. Then it cools down there and there's a rotation to stocks, and then I think crypto is going to follow. So everything still on track, folks, Again based on the data, not
feelings or emotions. So this is a time to exercise a lot of patients. If the charts and your portfolio, look at your portfolio bothers you right now, don't look at it. I haven't looked at my portfolio because there's volatility right now. There's not much to pay attention to here,
So don't look at your portfolio every day. That's that's a big trick in staying patient and keeping your mental health right because looking at these things every day and oh my god, my portfolio just went down it that'll drive you nuts. Don't do that, right. So I've learned that lesson being here from multiple bull and bear market cycles.
So again, guys, expect more downside, but we're going to find that support level and then the sentiment's going to be reset and then the bulls are going to take over and we're going to have a monster rally. And look, seasonality wise, Q four, I mean has always been incredibly great especially in bullmarket years. Right, beer market year is not so much. But we're we're in the third bullmarket year and Q four is setting up to be pretty great, and it's going to be for all market stocks and
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¶ Arthur Hayes Crypto rally TGA
we're still in the bullmarket. Arthur Hayes, who I've had on the podcast, you know, he mentioned the following cryptos ready for up only mode once the US Treasury General Account hits eight hundred and fifty billion dollars target. Now we've seen this throughout this bullmarket, not just under Trump, but when Jenny Yellen was running things under Biden as well. They've done some pseudo QE with the Treasury, so I think he's right. Let me give you the details of
what he had to say. Crypto markets will enter up only once the United States Treasury hits its target goal of filling the General Account the TGA, the Treasury Department's bank account, with eight hundred and fifty billion dollars. According to Arthur Hayes, co founder of bitmexs crypto Exchange, with this liquidity drain complete up only can resume Hayes' roads on Friday, as the US TGA's opening balance cross eight
hundred and seven billion dollars. When the Treasury is filling its general account, the funds are generally sequestered and do not flow into private markets. Many crypto investors and traders anticipate rising liquidity levels in the coming months as the US Federal Reserve leans into interest rate cutting cycle, which should boost asset prices until liquidity dries up and rate tightening process begins again. So once again global liquidity on
the rise. Rates are being cut by the Fed. Obviously they just cut by twenty five basis points and there's more cuts that are scheduled. So I think the table is being set here for the bull market to continue. And once again we already see global liquidity is breaking into new highs. So I think Arthur is spawn on here. This is something he's been tracking over the past couple of years as we've been in the bull market, and
it's been on point right, So let's see. I don't know if the Fed's going to go full QWI like they have in the past, but they're doing pseudo qi working with the Treasury moving ahead, Coinbased CEO sets sites
¶ Coinbase CEO Crypto App
on replacing banks with crypto super app. So everybody is trying to set up these web three apps that offer all in one financial services and features and a lot of on chain services of course. And you know, I think it was Sandy Call of Franklin Templeton, who I've had on a podcast a few times, where she said, we're moving away from an account based setup, which would
be like your banks, to a wallet based setup. And I think we all see the direction to Puck is heading here, where your digital identity, you're banking, you're on chain. All these things will be all wallet based and maybe in one app. So we'll see who is able to build that respective app and how they're able to roll it out to the masses. So let me give it
to details. Speaking during a recent interview with Fox Business, Brian Armstrong, Coinbased CEO, confirmed the company's plans to offer a full suite of financial services with payments to credit cards and rewards, all powered by crypto rails. Here's a quote. Yes, we do want to become a super app and provide all types of financial services. Armstrong said, we want to become people's primary financial account, and I think that crypto has a right to do that. So coinbase is positioned
to be able to do this. They have the brand, they're public, they are the largest exchange in the United States, so you can imagine it's going to be easy for them to push this type of app because they have a huge customer base. Plus they have the resource to really market this app, and they already do a lot of great marketing. Many of you have seen the TV commercials and they're usually around in sports arenas, like I watch a lot of basketball games the NBA and I
see coinbas ads plastered in the arena and much more so. Clearly, right the direction things are heading in is that it's going to be wallet based on chain, so very very exciting. Now look at this Bitco files for a US IPO
¶ Bitgo IPO
with ninety billion dollars in assets under custody. This is going to be another big IPO. Another confirmation item here that we are in a bull market. No one does an IPO in a bear market, right when liquidity is dried up. So we've been seeing a flurry of crypto companies go public, which is very bullish. It reminds me of the Dot com boom in the nineties. Will everything be successful? Obviously not right. The history and the nature of markets shows us that certain companies will do well
and some will not. Write but that's the nature of markets and the economy. Now, I'm not saying that for Bitco. I actually think Bigco is going to be successful. They are custodian from many of the big institutions in the crypto industry, and this would be a really big IPO. You know, just about a week and a half ago Gemini went public and was bullish. Of course, of course Circle was a big one, so this would be really big.
So crypto custody firm Bitco has filed for a US initial public offering, also known as IPO, aiming to capitalize on the renewed institutional demand for digital asset infrastructure under the Trump administration. The firm aims to list its Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under
the ticker symbol BTGO. According to its Form S one registration with the SEC dated Friday, the Palo Alto based company reported approximately ninety point three billion dollars in assets on its platform as of June thirty, twenty twenty five. Its client based spans over forty six hundred entities and more than one point one million users across one hundred countries.
So bitco supports over one four hundred digital assets and serves a mix of crypto native firms, financial institutions, governments, and high net worth individuals. The firm also touts two hundred and fifty million dollars in insurance coverage and completion of SoC one and SOFT two audits. So I know bitgo very well. It's headed up by Mike Belshie who's the founder and CEO. And Mike Belshe is a Web
two point zero legend. The man was at Google building Google Chrome and much more so a big fan of bit go and I'm really looking forward to seeing this company go public. I'll try to get Mike back on the podcast I've had him on many years. But exciting times, folks, Really great to see these companies going public. Final news
¶ Senate Democrats Crypto legislation =================================================
item here is Senate Democrats push bipartisan authorship process for crypto market structure built. So, of course many of you know the Clarity Act. The market Structure bill is in the Senate ready to be marked up, voted on, and much more. Now it's a whole process, right. If you guys remember with the Genius Act, there were so many hurdles and votes. You know, through the process. It's kind of painstaking, but that's how it's done. That's how the
sausage is made. But this thing gets past, you know, it's going to be exciting. I actually interviewed Congressman Tom Member last week. I'll be publishing the interview in the morning where we talk about the timeline, what's the process, what does it look like, in addition to other things. So he's optimistic this can get done this fall. I don't think it's going to happen in October. Based on what he's saying, It's most likely going to be probably
late November into early December. I think that's the realistic thing because Congress government doesn't work, you know, on time. They're often slow. Plus you have government shut down things that are going to be coming up. So it's your typical stuff in DC. So, twelve Senate Democrats released a statement on Friday pressing their Republican colleagues to agree to a bipartisan authorship process for the crypto Market Structure legislation
currently making its way through Congress. The Democrats won a greater role in writing the legislation rather than providing comments on a GOP written bill Politico Report. I don't have a problem with this. I think the Democrats need to play a bigger role in I think that's important right for our democracy, that you have these people weigh in. If you recall, did twelve Democrats that are mentioned here,
they did introduce their own version of the bill. So I think it's important for them to bring their ideas to the table, even if some of it we don't like, but at least let them feel like they are participating, giving ideas and maybe bring some balance. Right. But you know, obviously if they're putting stuff that doesn't make sense for crypto, we can't have it. So you know, if Elizabeth Warren is, you know, influencing this group in any way, you know
it's not going to be good. But I'm optimistic because we saw the Democrats partner with their colleagues to get the Genius Act through. In addition, in the House they were able to get the Market Structure bill. There seventy one Democrats joined the Republicans. So I'm optimistic going to get this done. And it is much harder in the Senate. Right, not too many bills make it through the Senate, but I think we can get it done. Crypto's I think a high priority for these folks. I think many of
them would become educated, especially a lot of Democrats. And Elizabeth Warren is no longer in the same power capacity, if you want to call it that. You know, no more Gary Ginser and no more Charad Brown. So I think the Democrats who were wanting to support Crypto were holding off because of Elizabeth Warren. You know the amount of power she had on the Diviner administration. But now, of course Elizabeth Warren and Gary Ginzer are being defeated,
and we saw how the election results played out. So I don't think these Democrats want to play any games here going against Crypto. That's the wrong side of history to be on. So I'm optimistic they can get this done. But I think any hope of it getting done in October is out the window, according to what Congressman Tom Members said. But anyway, you guys can check out on an interview in the morning. But guys, I think this is going to be a huge narrative in addition to
liquidity and the Q four. You know, kind of seasonality that we see with market. So I think things are leading up here to fedes cut rates. A lot of important factors that will be good for a rally are happening here. And I think once this goes into law assigned by President Trump, it's going to be so bullish for this market, not just for the immediate or even twenty twenty six, but I'm talking the next bullmarket because
you can imagine drenking a bear market. A lot of company are going to build, they have the clarity, and they're going to set up for the next massive bull market. So, folks, exciting times. I know the price doesn't reflect that yet, but it will, right. Don't be emotional, be educated. So folks, that's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button. A great way you can support me is by subscribing
to my free email newsletter. It is one hundred percent free. I will be putting out a newsletter tomorrow. Check out my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback, in digital, and my course at Mycrypto course dot com. Expand your knowledge about this technology and asset class. Check out this course. It is packed with tons of value. Folks, thank you so much for watching and listening. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you later.
