Bitcoin and Altcoins on HIGH ALERT After Fed Rate Cut & SUI Analysis

up ever since. But right now is the time where you start to see whether people mention, you know, those round numbers between seventy to seventy nine k a lot, or if people get fearful that we might we might go back down to fifty to fifty nine k. Right now, both are quite low.

for crypto. It was interesting, right when the FED cut rates around eleven is am Pacific time yesterday, there was an initial run up followed by a huge drop off, and the stock markets actually ended down after they went up significantly to start. So that's actually quite typical when the crowd is anticipating something and the price is already

a bit baked in. More so in the stock market than crypto, of course, but because it was already predicted to be like an eighty five percent likely outcome for the FED to cut rates, the prices had already been kind of creeping up. Bitcoin was already above sixty k at the time the announcement was made, the S and P was already at all time high levels, So the idea was there was a bit of a buy the rumor sell the news situation that I think was pretty

short lived. By the time we went to bed here in the US, crypto is already starting to creep up, especially ald coins, which I'll get into in a moment. But the initial reaction appears to be a lot of hype, a little bit of confusion because yesterday was a bit of a fake out day. So that distrust I think is helping to fuel crypto higher right now, because retail traders haven't quite fomoed in just yet like you would expect.

is starting to move. I don't know if this is a true breakout to a new all time high, or you know, it's making a lower high, so to speak, lower low on its way to finding the bottom.

a quick reaction to this news. I basically just talk about how, you know, there was an initial run up right when the Fed cut their rates, and then the crowd caught up to the news right there, literally right at the top for bitcoin and the S and P, and then we see a downturn and then they started to get a little bit hesitant. And obviously we've been

going back up ever since. But right now is the time where you start to see whether people mention you know, those round numbers between seventy to seventy nine K a lot, or if people get fearful that we might we might go back down to fifty to fifty nine K right now, both are quite low, and everyone's celebrating the sixty to

sixty nine K level. Of course, the mentions toward these numbers are up because we're now in them, right But when you start to see mentions of lower numbers than where we currently are, or higher numbers from where we currently are, that's where you start to see perfect tops or perfect bottoms like we see here while I highlight seventy to seventy nine Look at these past six months and how these spikes align with that faded green line

going down right after those spikes happened. Or alternatively, you see how much bottoms correlated with these fifty to fifty nine K mentioned spikes. So that's probably the most important chart I'm going to be looking at over the next few weeks to see when people start to lean one way or another or anticipate those the potential all time highs or a potential retrace.

going to buy thro forty k stuff like that. So we put all of those together and we make a ratio of all the positive comments versus all the negative comments throughout Twitter, slash x, Reddit, Telegram, four Chan, and even bitcoin talk. And this is showing there's three big spikes that we've seen in the past three months. This is a super negative one that happened on July fourth, right, I want to say before or after I think it was before the Trump assassination attempt, and then we went

on this huge surge. Then we see this huge positive spike right before about twenty four hours before the top, as people were anticipating a new all time high here, and then we go way down, and then we go super negative again back on August fourth, which was right at the bottom. So these negative spikes here the only two times where we were actually seeing a higher ratio of negative comments than positive comments. They were literally the perfect times to buy. This was literally the perfect time

to sell. It's not always going to be that clear cut, but I didn't fluff the numbers in anyway. This is just the last three months of this ratio and how it's how it's dictating where prices go next. So people who think, oh, it's only whales that are controlling the markets, No,

there's two elements. It's the whales on one side that are accumulating, accumulating or dumping at any time, versus the retail average joe traders who are constantly getting it wrong and giving you perfect counter trading signals at any given.

axis so it isn't off the screen. So this is what it I like going back a full year, They've added if we just account for any wall, if that holds ten or more btc two hundred and forty and seventy bitcoin during that time, and they're not showing signs of slowing down as we showed the zoomed in version. It's it's just continuing to go up. And unless they flatten out or go down like they did briefly here, the likeliness of another big top and a huge sell off is pretty slim.

It might take just a few seconds to load here. Why don't I come back to it just so we don't have to sit and wait? But oh, there we are. So we can see here if we just look at like the last thirty days of transactions, we can sort by the largest to smallest over that time, and we can see like the biggest Ethereum one, for example, was a centralized exchange move to another centralized exchange, and we have a lot of those that are happening all the time.

This was an actual withdrawal. This was a withdrawal as well. The deposits are the ones that we look out for, and I wish we had that for Bitcoin. I assume could. We eventually will because our developers are amazing and I want to give them a shout out for good reason. But for now, we can't really really differentiate between ETF wallets and regular unchain wallets.

run up thirty four and a half percent. So plenty of alf coins having individual runs, and that's where these you know, metrics are just so handy, because when you start to see things get bullish or even flat, there's always individual assets out there that are getting huge stories at any given time. I made this model for myself that's basically using the Santimind API to tell me which networks are getting hot or are getting super cold compared to their normal averages at any given time. And each

of them have a label. Here, it's a ton It looks like a spaceship, I understand. But the moral of the story is if you look at any of these labels, the more red they are, the hotter the network is. For example, Phantom, which is one of the best performers over the past week and even past day, it's not a coincidence that it's seeing a lot of hot network activity right now. That's why it's showing as red. Meanwhile, a meme coin like Pepe struggling at the moment and

seeing very little network activity. So the rule of thumb is it's not just an automatic bullish symbol. If you see red next to one of these labels, it means that it's more likely to shift the current direction that it's going because a sudden spike in address activity or network growth or fomo from retail traders. It means that if the coin is going up rapidly, it's more likely to turn down. So yesterday when Phantom was kind of flat, this was a perfect signal that it was about to erupt.

This is two days ago, and then this is the past twenty four hours, so this was a sign that it's time to buy. And this is a sign that there's a lot of fomo and we actually might see a local top soon. So the question is really which assets are super hot network wise without really seeing a lot of uptick in price yet. Aragon is one that's standing out. It's kind of orange red and the price it's showing it's only up two percent in the past

twenty four hours. That's actually underperforming versus the rest of the markets. So that would be one to look out for. Origin over here only up two percent in the past twenty four hours, but very hot network activity. Just trying to eyeball any others that might be shown up here that one's already seeing a lot of surging. I'd say Ergo is a good candidate as well, and This is obviously not investments advice. This is just going off of what the model is telling us in terms of which

are the biggest risers. We can also even see by category, so for example, whale transactions Origin protocol is standing out as the biggest riser in terms of whale transactions. Right now Phantom biggest riser in terms of active addresses and network growth. So I love this model. It's one of my go to is to find things to post about on a daily basis. And for those interested, I can leave a link for this model for you Tony after this call and you can share it in your video link if you'd like.

in about six months. So clearly people are trading into this trend right now, which is generally a good thing and indicates that the trend can continue assuming that Bitcoin is able to keep up its own momentum or at least stay four bitcoin falls. Alf coin metrics like this become irrelevant because they're going to be tied directly to Bitcoin's performance. So swee is in terms of volume, it's

looking fantastic right now, it's continuing to grow. And then if I go down to social volume, way down here, huge spikes in discussion rate and in terms of its dominance of discussion rate compared to the rest of the markets, so we see this as a perfect local top, and this was kind of a local top as well. Generally, you don't want to see huge spikes and discussion rate

as prices rise. I would imagine if we zoom in a little bit to the past week, make this a bit more granular, and I'm going to make this we'll call it fifteen minutes. That's too tight, We'll just do one hour, okay. So we want to see social volume going down as it actually kind of is now over the past twenty four hours. If we starts to make another run up here at a dollar thirty five to dollar forty, we don't want to see chatter start to

lift up again. It's a very good sign that it's low at the moment, meaning that if it does start to pump up again, it's going to be doing so with very little resistance from the crowd. Once the fomo picks up, that's where you might see a top once again. So in terms of Suey's performance, it's probably going to be highly dictated by how much the crowd is paying direct attention to this asset versus just the other alt coins that are having their own breakouts, which there.

to see that being the case, like clockwork. I personally think even with crypto being around a little over fifty teen years now, it's still too small of a sample size for us to look at one given month or one given season and say that's the time to buy, that's the time to sell, because it happened four other times or seven other times. Maybe after one hundred and fifty years we'll have enough data at it to say

what months or weeks are good. But I'm not a believer in timing the markets and saying, oh, you can just pour your money into something else until you know, December, and then it's a good time to scoop up bitcoin because if everyone believes that, yeah, and it's a zero sum game, how is that possible?