A detailed and at times sharply contested discussion on the strategic direction of the Iran conflict following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and what it means for markets (recorded at noon London time on 13 April). In this episode, Mark and I analyse the shift from an historically intense air campaign to a US-led maritime interdiction strategy. While we both agree that the US is attempting a novel “sovereignty-denial” strategy for regime change, we differ on how much control the US will ha...
Apr 15, 2026•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 14
This week Mark Farrington and I are joined by Zoso Davies , formerly Managing Director in European Investment Grade Credit Research at Barclays, where he spent over 15 years analysing major credit cycles including the European sovereign crisis, Brexit, and COVID. Now at a leading London based hedge fund and author of Macro Credit Thinking , Zoso brings a rare combination of top down macro perspective and deep credit market expertise. The discussion reframes how to think about credit risk as mark...
Apr 01, 2026•56 min•Season 1Ep. 13
A sharp and wide-ranging discussion on the strategic consequences of the Iran war. In this episode, Doomberg joins Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington to unpack why markets have remained surprisingly calm despite escalating violence in the Middle East, what may be coming next, and what the long-term, strategic consequences of this conflict are likely to be. The conversation digs deep into the structure of the global energy system. Key themes: * Market resilience despite conflict, supported by inven...
Mar 19, 2026•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 12
How could the Iran conflict reshape global markets, China risk premiums and emerging market capital flows? Marvin Barth and Erik @YWR discuss geopolitics, uncertainty and the investment implications of a changing global order. In this episode, they explore whether a US-aligned Middle East could reduce geopolitical risk, why emerging markets may benefit from shifting capital flows, and whether China’s equity story changes if Taiwan risk declines. The conversation also examines Europe’s strategic ...
Mar 04, 2026•57 min•Season 1Ep. 11
Forest Fire Insurance explores how risk truly builds in financial systems and why volatility is not the enemy it is often portrayed to be. Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington are joined by David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, to unpack the idea of self organised criticality in markets using the forest fire analogy. The discussion ranges from leverage, correlation and contagion to the failures of Sharpe ratio thinking and the dangers of suppressing volatility. The conversation moves through conve...
Feb 18, 2026•1 hr 14 min•Season 1Ep. 10
Unfortunately, the audio for this episode was terrible, so in addition to the time-stamped table of contents, a full, edited transcript is included below. In this episode, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington reflect on a sequence of events that together signal a decisive shift in US strategy, from Venezuela to Greenland, and from emerging markets to monetary policy. They examine how recent US actions have reasserted strategic deterrence, clarified a new Western Hemisphere doctrine, and forced allie...
Feb 04, 2026•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 9
Nigeria is the largest economy and population in Africa, is abundant in natural resources, is an emergent cultural and technology center, and increasingly a regional manufacturing hub. Senator Ede Dafinone of Delta Central State (the main oil-producing region) explains the reforms of President Tinubu, the vast potential opportunities they may release, and how this lynchpin of Africa can navigate strategic competition between the US and China. 0:33 Why Nigeria merits your attention. 2:40 Who is S...
Jan 21, 2026•36 min•Season 1Ep. 8
The Thematic Edge opens 2026 with its first guest, David Kilcullen , retired Australian Army colonel, intellectual architect of both the “Surge” in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the world’s foremost authority on counterinsurgency. Colonel Kilcullen helps us make sense of what happened in Venezuela on 5 January and what to expect going forward. The discussion is structured around three questions that matter for markets. * First, what actually happened operationally, and what it reveals about escalati...
Jan 07, 2026•1 hr 27 min•Season 1Ep. 7
After a brief hiatus, the Thematic Edge is back! In the first half of this week’s episode, Mark queries me on Fed reform, a consistent theme of senior Trump officials that hasn’t received sufficient attention given its immense implications: what do they want to do and what can they do without Congress. In the second half we switch roles as I pull from Mark the real international relations implications of the abrupt turn in the latest US National Security Strategy paper. 0:00 Intro 2:23 Who will ...
Dec 17, 2025•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 6
A very lively discussion this week that goes on a bit longer than usual as Mark & I get into a disagreement over the implications of Chinese gold-backed stablecoins. But before the fireworks, Mark & I review what President Trump achieved at ASEAN and APEC, how his earlier successes set him up for it, and what it means for Global bifurcation ; then we fire both barrels at the failure that has been central bank forward guidance and our prediction (hope?) that this travesty is about to meet...
Nov 05, 2025•1 hr 12 min•Season 1Ep. 5
This week, Mark Farrington and I discuss what I learned from the semiannual World Bank-IMF meetings last week in Washington. Where do both policymakers’ and markets’ center of gravity lie? 0:00 Introduction: Impressions of World Bank-IMF meetings 2:25 IMF’s forecasts and embedded biases 4:08 Market participants’ views 6:13 Benchmarked managers more consensus than absolute-return managers 9:14 Strongest pushback on my views? Geopolitics and the dollar 12:00 Consensus take on Chinese rare earth co...
Oct 22, 2025•1 hr 3 min
This week Mark and I discuss how “we’re all state capitalists now” but that both new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and US President Trump make an error when they try to include central banks in that effort. We discuss what markets are missing — inflation — and how that’s likely to be a key risk theme for 2026, and we touch upon whether the current equity boom is Dot.com 2.0, or something different. 0:07 The message of new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and what it means for Japan and the ye...
Oct 08, 2025•1 hr 10 min
Mark and I covered a lot in this episode. We start with a quick recap of the Bank of Japan meeting Friday and the Federal Reserve meeting two days earlier. But we spend most of our time discussing a new piece by Mark, Dollar upside gamma: Systemic pressures , that mostly aligns with my long-standing views but raises both some critical differences and questions about the future. 0:00 Intro 1:18 The Bank of Japan pauses but October is live for another rate hike. 4:53 Mark calls 25 and done for the...
Sep 24, 2025•1 hr 6 min
Mark Farrington of the Global Watchtower and I have kicked off our own podcast on the Themes driving markets. Mark was practicing thematic investing as a portfolio manager long before it became a “thing” and a thematic approach to analysis of the global political economy has been my modus operandi for a quarter century. Mark and I have been debating markets for over twenty years and thought we’d bring that debate into the public. In this, our first episode we talk about the shifting sands of geo...
Sep 10, 2025•1 hr 2 min
