A lot can change in two weeks in politics. The rules of the Conservative leadership race are now set and the contours of the contest are starting to come into focus as a number of candidates throw their hats into the ring. There will be no coronation for Pierre Poilievre, as Leslyn Lewis and Jean Charest (along with Roman Baber) declare their candidacies and Patrick Brown might not be far behind. While some other names could be included in the mix, Poilievre, Lewis, Charest and Brown could be yo...
Mar 11, 2022•41 min
With just 90 days to go before election day in Ontario, the parties at Queen’s Park are already in campaign mode. But, the legislature is still sitting — and will keep sitting for another two months or so. The Ontario Progressive Conservatives seem to be planning to use every day to their advantage, running advertisements and pushing the budget date to the end of April, just before the writs will be dropped for the election campaign. To break down all the latest developments in and around Queen’...
Mar 04, 2022•25 min
We’re still waiting to find out when the next leader of the Conservative Party will be chosen and what requirements will need to be met by prospective contestants. But we do know that Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre says he is running and that a number of other candidates — including former Progressive Conservative leader and Quebec premier Jean Charest — are mulling a bid. This will be the third Conservative leadership race in five years. Throughout the long contest back in 2017, I was joined b...
Feb 25, 2022•40 min
The protesters who have blockaded borders and occupied Ottawa over the last few weeks have had real impacts on the lives of those who depend on cross-border trade and those who live in the nation’s capital. They have also had an impact on politics in this country, changing Canadians’ views of both the prime minister over his handling of the crisis and the Conservative Party over the positions they have taken on pandemic restrictions and the protests themselves. Even if the protests die down or a...
Feb 18, 2022•31 min
On Tuesday, voters in the northern Saskatchewan riding of Athabasca will be heading to the polls in a provincial byelection. This came about after NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigned the seat to run for the federal Liberals in the last election. That run wasn’t successful, and now the New Democrats are hoping to hold a seat they have only lost once since 1975. This vote comes just days after Premier Scott Moe announces a lifting of proof-of-vaccination requirements in the province. To discuss the ...
Feb 11, 2022•33 min
Things escalated quickly this week, with Erin O’Toole losing a caucus vote on Wednesday that cost him his leadership of the Conservative Party. O’Toole is out, Candice Bergen is in as interim leader and a new leadership contest — the third since 2017 — is about to get under way. There’s a lot to discuss here. What led to Erin O’Toole’s swift and sudden downfall? What does this mean for the Conservative Party going forward? And what kind of candidate has the best shot at being O’Toole’s successor...
Feb 04, 2022•38 min
In the last federal election, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole made a play to woo working class voters to his party — a party that has not always been a friend to organized labour. Then, last fall Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a minimum wage hike with labour leaders in attendance. So, what’s going on with the labour vote? To help explain the role of organized labour in past and future elections, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Larry Savage, a professor in the department o...
Jan 28, 2022•32 min
In a little over three months, the 2022 Ontario election campaign will get started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives will be seeking re-election for the first time after their 2018 victory. The polls suggest it could be a hotly-contested race, with not only the PCs in contention but also Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and the Liberals under Steven Del Duca. To help break down how the parties are preparing for the June election, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer ...
Jan 21, 2022•34 min
Since the Liberals came to power in 2015, Dan Arnold has been the man keeping tabs on public opinion in the Prime Minister’s Office. He’s also acted as the Liberal Party’s pollster in three election campaigns, watching the numbers as Justin Trudeau led the Liberals to three consecutive victories. After six years, Arnold is making the leap back to the private sector, returning to his old home at Pollara as Chief Strategy Officer . But first, he’s here to talk to me about his experiences tracking ...
Jan 14, 2022•57 min
In this final episode of The Writ Podcast for 2021, I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to put our powers of prediction to the test! The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number. For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June provincial election: 35.4%. Will the party get more or less than Tim Hudak’s score from 2011? Will the...
Dec 17, 2021•1 hr 1 min
This week on 2021’s last regular edition of The Writ podcast: Polls of the week * Polling from Léger gives us an update on what Canadians think of the pandemic, as well as how their governments are doing handling it. * As the Liberals announce a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics, new data from the Angus Reid Institute suggests Canadians’ views on the issue are complicated — but that they see a rising China as a foreign policy threat, according to Abacus Data . The Writ is a reader-suppo...
Dec 10, 2021•21 min
This week on The Writ podcast: Polls of the week * An update from Abacus Data on federal politics, including what Canadians thought of the throne speech, if they thought anything at all. * In Quebec, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec remains on track for a landslide in next year’s election, according to Léger . * In Atlantic Canada, three governments are boasting high satisfaction ratings . One of them isn’t: New Brunswick . In the news * Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back t...
Dec 03, 2021
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The House re-elects its speaker and hears a throne speech. * Former NDP MP Pierre Nantel is trying to make a comeback with his third party in as many years. * Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney hold on as party leaders. * Yukon’s minority government survives a confidence vote. * The Greens have a new interim leader: Amita Kuttner. Polls of the week * The next election on the docket is Ontario’s in June, and the Progressive Conservatives are still holding a...
Nov 26, 2021•25 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Erin O’Toole faces a leadership challenge from a senator, who he boots from the Conservative caucus. * A threshold is reached to force an earlier vote on Jason Kenney’s leadership. * The governing PCs score a big win in a P.E.I. byelection . The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Interview with Aaron Wherry * Parliament returns on Monday as Prime Minister Justi...
Nov 19, 2021•44 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Quebec holds its municipal elections, with Valérie Plante beating Denis Coderre in the race to be Montreal’s mayor by a bigger margin than expected. * The leader of the Nova Scotia NDP announces he’ll be stepping down. * Another right-wing splinter party hopes to make waves in Ontario’s provincial election in June. The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. * Princ...
Nov 12, 2021•35 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The third quarter fundraising numbers are in , and the Conservatives have raised the most money (again), but the Liberals and Bloc Québécois set new records. * Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest in Ontario political news. Check out her newsletter here . * Last weekend, the Manitoba PCs named their new leader and on Tuesday Heather Stefanson was sworn-in as premier. Curtis Brown of Probe Research joins the show to expl...
Nov 05, 2021•42 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The new federal cabinet has been sworn-in , and it includes two ministers who won their seats by tiny margins. * Nunavut holds its territorial election , with new faces in half of the assembly’s seats. * The results of Alberta’s referendum and senatorial votes are in . * The Manitoba PCs will announce their next leader , and the province’s new premier, on Saturday. * The Nova Scotia Greens have chosen a new leader . Polls of the week * Polls from Nano...
Oct 29, 2021•31 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Alberta makes history , electing a woman as mayor of Calgary and someone of South Asian origin as mayor of Edmonton for the first time. * Elections Canada announces how many seats each province will have after the next re-distribution is completed. * Alison Coffin r esigns as leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP after party delegates vote in favour of a leadership review. * A provincial byelection will be held in Prince Edward Island on Novembe...
Oct 22, 2021•21 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Annamie Paul is still leader of the Green Party, at least until some (more) legal issues are settled . * Judicial recounts confirm the election results in two federal ridings. * Nova Scotia finally sets a fixed election date — in the summer? * Dave Cournoyer of Daveberta.ca and the Daveberta Podcast joins the show to discuss the upcoming municipal, senatorial and referendum votes in Alberta. You can watch the interview on YouTube : Polls of the week *...
Oct 15, 2021•41 min
In case you missed it already this week, I’ve started my series of post-election analyses of each party’s performance. Check them out below (subscribers only): * For the Liberals, a win’s a win — but also a warning * Conservatives still losing where they need to win This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Erin O’Toole holds a meeting with his new caucus for the first time and emerges with his leadership intact , for now. * A judicial recount overturns the preliminary results in a Quebec rid...
Oct 08, 2021•24 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Annamie Paul resigns as Green Party leader. * The Liberals won the mail ballots — and it could have mattered a lot had the election been closer. Read more here. * The polls (mostly) nailed the election, again. Read more here. Polls of the week * A post-election “exit poll” from Léger shows us what motivated people to vote for each party. Questions and answers * What’s the value of reporting the national numbers in polls or election results? * What wer...
Oct 01, 2021•27 min
This week on The Writ podcast, Aaron Wherry , senior writer with the CBC and author of Promise and Peril: Justin Trudeau in Power , joins me to discuss the results of Monday’s election. In the news * Will this have been the last election for Trudeau and what will he do with this next term in office? * The Conservatives and the decisions they need to make about where to go next with the party — more to the centre or back to the right. * Whether the New Democrats should (or can be) satisfied with ...
Sep 24, 2021
This week on The Writ podcast, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada joins me to pore over the electoral map with only a few days to go before the votes are cast and the ballots are counted. We take a cross-country tour of all the country’s battlegrounds. Then, we play a game of over/under that you’ll want to listen to. Finally, on this week’s instalment of the #EveryElectionProject , I’m finishing up the series on recent elections by casting back all the way to the 2019 Canadian federal election. S...
Sep 17, 2021•1 hr 12 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * David Coletto is the CEO of Abacus Data and hosts inFocus with David Coletto . He joins me to discuss how the race has unfolded so far and how the Liberal-NDP switchers are the key electorate that could decide the outcome of the election. * Coletto also describes the PPC’s emerging voting coalition, what is contributing to their rise and whether their vote will turn out on election day. Questions and answers (with David) * How to explain the differenc...
Sep 10, 2021•47 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Corey Hogan can be heard regularly on The Strategists podcast . He’s also a former head of communications for the Alberta governments under Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney, and is now a vice-president at the University of Calgary. We discuss the dynamics of the campaign, how voters, the media and political parties digest polls and how leaders prepare for debates. Polls of the week * A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’...
Sep 03, 2021•52 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Sabrina Nanji covers Ontario’s provincial politics in her newsletter, Queen’s Park Observer . She joins me to discuss how the federal election is viewed from the provincial capital, and how Ontario’s parties are getting involved — or staying away from — the federal campaign. * As a special offer for readers and listeners of The Writ, you can subscribe to Queen’s Park Observer and get 25% off the subscription rate for the next year . Just enough to get...
Aug 26, 2021•43 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The CBC’s Aaron Wherry joins me to discuss the first week of the federal election campaign and offers some hot takes on the results in Nova Scotia. Polls of the week * A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in today’s article on The Writ. Questions and answers * What happened with the polls in Nova Scotia? * Why does the NDP struggle to secure an enduring foothold in urban centres outside of Western Canada? * Will the other party lea...
Aug 18, 2021•57 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Liberal incumbents retire and are quickly replaced by some local stars. * A jurisdictional and political floor-crossing in Saskatchewan . * Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister says adiós . Polls of the week * Abacus Data and the Angus Reid Institute release their last pre-election polls. * Research Co. gives us a deep dive in British Columbia. * Narrative Research on the state of the provincial campaign in Nova Scotia. Questions and answers * When will t...
Aug 12, 2021•39 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Speculation has reached a fever pitch that the election call is literally days away . * Whenever the election is held, we might have to wait a few days before knowing what the result actually is . * The Conservatives raised the most money in the second quarter of 2021. Polls of the week * Léger , Abacus Data and the Angus Reid Institute : Three federal polls conducted in the last week have good news for the Liberals, but not necessarily great news. * ...
Aug 05, 2021•32 min
This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Nova Scotia’s election campaign rolls on, with a more gender-balanced and diverse slate of candidates. * Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole pay a visit to Atlantic Canada (separately, of course). * Update on the Green leadership situation , and a lesson learned . Polls of the week * Léger , Ipsos , EKOS and Innovative : Four federal polls hit the wires after a dearth of data. * Mainstreet Research : The first numbers out of the Nova Scotia campaign are g...
Jul 27, 2021•29 min
