You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
So, yes, all eyes are on the United States. It feels like it isn't going to be a long time coming as we count down to the final days of the election there. And Henry Olsen is, among other things, upholster and a political analyst, and he's well known for being one of those accurate analysts who's pretty good at forecasting, having correctly predicted the last two elections. And Henry joins me, now, good afternoon.
Thank you for having me out.
Good afternoon, Yeah, good afternoon.
Is there life outside election talk in the USA right now? Or is that everything everyone's talking about?
Pretty much?
Although we do have college football today, so you're trying to get a diversion. You're talking about that.
Yeah, What is the energy going on at the moment leading up to the campaign? Is it getting more and more intense with rhetoric and final campaign meetings?
It's getting frantic more than intense. You've got the candidates making multiple appearances in multiple states each day, exhausting themselves to try and get the last mile out of the time left. Both candidates seem to be projecting confidence. Both campaigns are acting as if they think they're going to win, and could very well be that their data do tell them that, and of course one of them will be wrong.
How is the rhetoric going from each side in terms of the direction each candidate is taking.
Well, you know, they remain trying to make a contrast, which can sometimes be sharp and dark. It's not as dark as there was a few days ago with Harris talking about Trump being a fascist, but she does talk a lot about that he is somebody who's going to take office to take care of his enemies, not to fight for you. And of course Trump is always somebody who is taking the dark view of his opponent. But unfortunately in the United States, that is what we have
become used to. So compare to some of the things we've heard, it's not as not as nasty as it has been, say.
A week ago.
Have there been any particular as you've mentioned one particular comment from Harris, Have there been any particular gaffes or events in the last week or two that have actually really made a difference. Has been talked about the Puerto Rico and Trump's recent comments about Liz Chiney, which didn't sound too flash, any of those genuinely making any difference in what we're seeing.
Yeah, it's not making a difference as far as we can tell from the data. I mean, you had Joe Biden who said that Trump supporters were garbage, which led to Trump having a very interesting stunt where garbage Trump picked him up in Green Bay on the airport and he wore a sanitation uniform at his rally that day.
You know.
But the thing is, ninety something percent of the people know what they think. They either love Trump or they hate Trump, or they hate the Democrats or they love the Republicans. There's a lot of froth. There's a lot of signal or noise, but there's not a whole lot of signal.
You know.
Most people have made their minds up. And this stuff is taking the news for focusing the news in a way, but it's not moving the numbers very much.
What is the what is the lightest data?
The latest data seemed to be that it's a toss up. The real Clear Politics average has Trump up by a couple of tents of the point, the Cook Politics average has Harris up by a couple of tents. With our electoral college system, Harris really needs to have a larger lead than that to have a good shot at winning. But of course the Harris campaign thinks they've got that, And there was a poll that came out just a couple hours ago that has Harris ahead in Io, which
everyone thought Trump would win by a large margin. So there's dueling polsters and we'll see who ends up being right. But the data suggests we're coming down to a dead heat.
We have quite a lot.
I think we've got quite a large advanced voting numbers. Can you put that in give us the number on that and put us in context historically.
Yeah, So we have about seventy five million people who have already cast votes. By the time election day comes around, that'll be over eighty maybe as much as eighty five million. That is probably the highest number we've ever had. It's somewhere around I think fifty five percent of the expected turnout, but it could be an indication that turnout will be much higher than most people think. We had one hundred and fifty nine million votes cast two years ago or
four years ago. People thought it'd be a little bit less, but it might end up being more, and the advanced vote might be an indication of that.
Does the advance vote tell you anything in terms of which side that might favor, because my gut reaction in New Zealand would be advanced vote tends to go towards the more idealistic voters.
Does that tell you anything, you know?
In the United States, the advanced vote has historically, in the last couple of cycles tended to tilt to the Democratic Party and Republicans have caught up on election day. The advanced vote in a number of states is more Republican than it was in the recent elections, and that could indicate a shift to the right. But it's hard to know because of course you can't be sure whether or not that's an indication of the electorate or if
that's just a timing issue. You know, like if the Democrats who are not voting in Georgia early when they voted before, show up on election day, then it'll have been a mirage. But the base of the early voting so far has been more to the right than historic and some people think that might be good news for Trump.
In terms of the swing states, of course, are there any of those that are really coming into the sharpest focus?
Nevada is coming into sharp focus that we have probably seventy five percent of the votes that we expect to be cast are in Wow, and it is historically Republican. There's only about a day or two left where mailed ballots can arrive. If that doesn't change, if the Republicans still have a significant lead, which would be is their first lead in twenty years in a presidential year, that would be a strong sign that there won't be enough election day vote to turn it into Harris's corner.
What's the risk of civil unrest do you think on election day?
I wish I could say that that was an urban legend, but I think there's a reasonably high risk of sporadic rioting. I don't think there's going to be anything organized. Certainly neither candidate is going to do that. But when you have tensions this high and probably a lot of drinking going on during election night, you know this is a country where when teams win the Stanley Cup or football, their fans go out and riot and trash their city
when they're happy. Imagine what happens when they think their candidate has lost.
How long do you think it's going to be till we know anything?
You know I am more of an optimist. I think we'll have a very strong sense of who is likely to win by midnight Eastern Time. It would have to be incredibly close for us to not have a direction, and I think we'll have a pretty firm sense even if the networks haven't called it by six in the morning Wednesday Eastern Time.
Okay, well, let's we might as well push you for a production, but you prepared to call it for us today.
My prediction shows up in the New York Post on Monday, and I'm not going to scoop myself even though you are many thousands of miles away.
Well we are, But I guess the internet undoes us on that school, doesn't it?
Yes, it does. Wait, will you be on election Nott, Henry.
I will be at the University of Houston and I'll be doing a live stream of my analysis. I do live analysis starting from six thirty Eastern time, and I'll be doing a live stream I think, on my YouTube channel. So people who are interested, can you know me on x at Henry Olson EPPC. Get the link and as results come in, I'll say what it means and whether or not this is good or bad for either candidate and give you a little give you more detail than you want to know.
Excellent, And just like you last, where are the candidates going to be? Because there was some confusion here. I think there was one of the reasons we weren't sending one of this one of our people might not be going, So I don't know where to go to hang out with Harris.
Do we know where Harris and Trump are going to be on election not?
They haven't told us yet exactly. There's rumors that Trump is going to be in West Palm Beach at Maro Lago, but that has not been confirmed, and I do not think that Harris has said where her election night party is.
Okay, well, he look, we really appreciate your Timmy. You're insight this afternoon. And have fun on election night, Henry.
I always do, even though it's exhausting and grueling. When one hundred and sixty million votes in the world's largest west d democracy or cast, how can it be anything but fun?
Excellent.
I really appreciate your time this afternoon. I think it's your evening, isn't it. So thanks for much. It is cheers, thank you, thank care, bye bye. That is Henry Olsen. He is an analyst and polster in the States and you will have heard his Twitter details. He has called the last he called I mean, I think if you've called the first election in twenty sixteen for Trump, he called that one, and he called the results of the last one. And go and check out his Twitter feed, but interesting insight.
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