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Yes Yesterday, Our time, about now. Actually twenty four hours ago, the Israeli Defense Force carried out multiple strikes on Iranian military targets, killing four soldiers. Israel's army has said the attacks are in retaliation to continuous attacks from Iran. The President of the United States, Joe Biden, says someone optimistically, I think that he's hopeful that this will mark the end of a month's long cycle of escalation, but many experts are concerned this is going to worsen the conflict.
And with me now is geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller Jeffrey Good.
Afternoon, Good afternoon, Tim.
Was this a valid response from Israel?
Well, Israel will see it that way. It was a carefully calibrated response. It targeted mainly military sites in Iran, around twenty different sites and three different locations, so it was significant. But what it did not do was target
oil facilities or nuclear facilities. And there's been a lot of talk and concern that Israel would seek to do that would seek to undertake a large scale a strike, just given what Israel's been doing particularly in Lebanon in the last few months, we just had every reason to think that with the large scale response from Israel, I think there was a significant response, and in the wider context,
it was a very big response by Israel yesterday. But I think Israel also to some degree stepped back from the brink here and it didn't go for that for those nuclear facilities, oil facilities because of UIs pressure behind the scenes, and I think Ben and men who decided to just step back a little bit and not go too far.
What was it specifically in retaliation too, in terms of what Iran had been doing, because that's part a bunch of missiles at Israel, aren't they.
That's right. Looks hard for everyone to keep keep up here because we've had so many exactly so many responses and counter responses and rounds of escalation this year. It's hard for anyone to keep up. But yesterday's strikes by Israel were in direct response to an attack by Iran on Israel on the first of October, in which Iran sent around one hundred and eighty ballistic missiles towards Israel
and did some significant damage on Israeli military facilities. It was more significant than actually was publicized immediately after those strikes, and so that was what Israel was responding to yesterday. And in the past month or so, the Israel Israel has been given the use of a new defense air defense system from the United States, a very advancedment called FAD. And there's some suggestion, you know, no hard evidence, but
that that might have been part of the deal. The US supplied a more high tech edense system there's only six of them in the world to Israel, and in response, Israel did not go for the jugular with yesterday with Iran and undertook a more moderate response. And one might expected.
What's the name of that their defense system again.
It's it's called farn THHAA D is an acronym. Don't don't ask me to spell out all the words. That something begins with terminal and then high altitude.
There are terminal high altitude defense.
Yeah, yeah, I think something like that.
Is that something that's like the iron dime two point zero or is it something completely different?
I think it's it's it's that on that spectrum. I so there are only half a dozen of them in the world. There was one station number of years ago in South Korea that really angered China quite significantly. So it's clearly got an awful lot of capability. It's got a lot of high tech radar capability, and you know, in some ways it's surprising that hasn't been stationed in Israel already, but it just shows that the thread is quite severe from Israel's perspective, and they've showed themselves up
with that new system. Perhaps in exchange, they didn't as if they undertake a more widespread of attack yesterday.
Because Iran has its only a defense system. How much of the of Israel's attack was actually repelled. Do we know what sort of proportion of missiles got through?
I think very little. I mean, Israel's technology is you know, it is very very it's a very high standard, and that's because it's largely developed in coordination with the United States, and they have one of the most advanced militaries, if not the most advanced military in the world. Iran simply does not. So Israel did significant damage to air defense facilities in Iran yesterday, going by the reports, and that will be significant if Israel wants to undertake future attacks.
Iran's air defense systems have been knocked out effectively, and yes they'll they'll rebuild them, no doubt, but that will take time. And that's what's what's in it for Israel.
Well, I guess there are two ways of I mean from a layman's point of view, there's two ways of life looking at it. That they've softened up the air defenses so they can have another crack at them. But one might argue they've softened up the air defense system so they can simply say no more from you, Otherwise we're going to hit your harder and you won't be able to defend yourself. What is.
I think as both of those A true term certainly, I mean that those attacks yesterday by Israel, they're destroyed missile production, missile launch facilities, air defense facilities. You know, this is significant in deterring future strikes by Iran. It's not crippling in the sense because it didn't go for you know, some of them, as I say, those other targets.
It won't lead to a full scale war. Iran has played down the attacks, saying there's only limited damage, so they're not looking to undertake another round of retaliation here against Israel. And it's to everyone's benefit. And we've seen an awful lot of escalation in the Middle East over the past year, and I think it will do everyone good to take a breath and step back for a moment.
And I think we need to go for diplomacy, dialogue de escalation here, and that's something that many countries have been working on over the past year. You know, it's all started with Gaza, it's expanded to Lebanon, to Syria, to Iran, to Iran. We all need to step back here and what's been happening. We've just seen a wave after wave of escalation and I think if anything we've learned anything over the past year is the escalation simply forgets more escalation. And sadly, I you know, we've got
to look at the wider context as well. With an US election just around the corner, and you know, if the polls are right, Donald Trump is in the box seat to win those He is very anti Iran in his views and very much against Iran's nuclear program. I just wonder whether ben Aminetno's waiting and seeing look, Trump's in the box seat to win this selection. Let's do something bigger. On the other side of November, the.
Well so Biden City t hope a little mark the end of a month's long cycle of escalation.
What's your view, Well, look, I think you're a very brave person to think this is ever the end. We've just seen just wave and wave of escalation over the past year. If you just think where this all began on October the seventh, twenty twenty three, and where we are now, you know, we've gone from being just about Gaza to being about Lebanon has Bella. Who've seen just escalation throughout the Middle East no matter where you look.
Israel says it's fighting a seventh front war because when you count up all the enemies it's facing from the Hooties in Yemen through to the West Bank, Syria, ir Araan, Lebanon, Gaza, you end up with seven fronts. And that's the situation we're in now. We're in a wider regional war. So yes, things could have been worse yesterday, But you know, I think they're bad enough as they are, and I think we need to just keep steaking out in favor of
the de escalation routes. Apparently there are more ceasefire talks underway, and Doha again with Gaza, and I think we just need to go back to the political solutions because you won't solve this conflict with the military response.
Do you think that Iran will respond.
For now? I don't think they have plans to. From the messaging that's coming out, they're saying limited damage, saying that their Israeli response was weak. They had regular programming on state TV. They're not hyping things out, sort of brushing it off. Yeah, well, I think real damage was done to the military facilities, but they're not looking to make a big thing of it, which you would expect if they were planning on undertaking yet another round of retaliation.
But remember this is the second tips attack, the escalation we've seen this year. The direct confrontation between Israel and Iran was one back in April, so it was only six months ago. So I think the way we should probably say this, you know, the current round is over, but there will be sadly, almost certainly future rounds of escalation unless we diffuse all of this through political solutions.
Well, I was going to I was gonna, well, I am going to ask you. It feels like a rhetorical question because I almost think that there's the answer is no. But anyway, would return of the hostages make any difference?
So?
Or are we well beyond that now?
I think it would make some difference. I mean a return of the hostages as part of a cease fire deal. I think a cees fire and Gaza would be fantastic. I think cees fire and Lebanon would be fantastic. Israel has met an awful lot of its objectives by now, and you go back to April, Joe Biden told Vinamayahnah to take the win after the round of escalation then with Iran, and I think perhaps those words take the wind should be the message to Israel right now, just
given what's happened. They've killed Yahya Sinhwa, the head of Hamas and Gaza. They've killed Ismail Hanair, the political leader from US. They've killed Tassanas brother, the leader of his the Llah. They've caused an awful lot of damage in Lebanon and Gaza. Forty two thousand people in Gaza have been killed, two and a half thousand and Elebanon. At some point, I think you need to quote unquote take the win and just stop and go for a political solution.
Go for cease fires, go for diplomacy. I think that should be the message for Benamantno, who right now, I'm not sure if he's willing to hear it. I think he's looking ahead and he's seeing Donald Trump is in the block seat to be in the White House, and an awful lot more could play out under a Trump presidency, that's for sure.
All right. So do you think that if Trump didn't doesn't make the White House that there is more of a prospect of success in a securing peace.
Well, yes, and Noah, because Joe Biden certainly hasn't been very successful over the past year overall, and in convincing Ben Mietno to set a step back, I don't think there's any guarantee at all that Kamala Harris would be more successful with Ben at all. So, yeah, the situation is pretty bleak. But yet I think we always have to be We have to be even as when it seems so bligue. We have to be hopeful, we have to be optimistic. We have to keep trying for peace
and keep trying that diplomatic route. And I do think New z Eden can play. It's just a small part, but a significant part in that global picture, and I think Winston Peters would do well to head to the Middle East at some point. He's only had a very brief stop in the Middle East over the past year. I think New z Eden could play a small part in those overall piece efforts by working together with friends and partners in the Middle East and outside the region, get.
Winston to go, they give him a good telling off. Just one last cynical question, letting Yahoo up. And before all this happened, was facing corruption charges? Is there? And cynically speaking, if I was just having a cup of coffee with someone, I'd say, well, he's not going to resolve it because as soon as everything's over, he's in trouble. So it's it's almost an his vested interest to continue with this stuff, isn't it.
It absolutely is. Indeed, the day the war ends, Beniminnea, who's career ends effectively and he goes back to fighting all these corruption charges, I think from anything's perspective, he's
probably that he's redeemed himself. There was that huge security failure over October the seventh that allowed that massive attack by hamas On on Israel, but since then, particularly the various assassinations of the leadership of Hamas and his Billah, the destruction of so many his BLA facilities in Lebanon and de Route and his BELA infrastructure and south southern Lebanon,
the destruction of Hamas and Gaza. You know, he probably feels he's redeemed himself, but yet he is only going to face an awful lot of trouble if he resigns or is sacked as PM. So he's got every reason to continue for as long as as humanly possible. I mean, I think he's seventy five now, so he probably feels that he's still got a lot, a lot, a lot to play for.
Taken him out in the box. Hey, Jeffrey, I really appreciate your time this afternoon. Thanks so much for your insight.
He very welcome to him.
Yeah, we got thanks that as Jeffrey mill here is a geopolitical analyst, and yeah, actually that's fascinating and fascinating insights into the whole thing.
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