The coming question is who won the election, and we're about thirty five days out. I hate making predictions, but I'm gonna make one. I think that the race is going to break in Harris's direction right in the next twenty days or so, and that on election Night we're gonna have a pretty clear picture of who's gonna win the election by midnight. I don't think it will be a be a late night. That's how it feels to me.
I could be wrong. Later in October than today. I said that Hillary Clinton looked like she was trending to four hundred electoral votes, and in that.
Moment, she was.
That being said Harris, except for one thing, and we'll talk about that. Seems to me to be on a good trajectory visioning that which seems to me much more likely than the moment that we remember from twenty sixteen, and I was on set for it. I think that
it's more likely that she wins the race. And in that instant you'll start with the conspiracy of lies, and in advance you know all of the people who will be involved in it, because there are all the people on it, all the people who have been involved in it, who are asked every week whether they'll disavow this or that that Trump did or said up to and including the overthrower of the government, and the answer never changes.
Do you get frustrated when you watch that?
When you see that, when you see the tediousness of the questioning in the corporate media about event that at this point have the rhythmic quality of the rising of the sun in the east every in the morning. I mean, how do you seem process all of that?
I do share the frustration. I just am less convinced. You know, you started by saying, of course they don't disavow it, because of course they agree with it. I actually think it's worse. I think it's of course they don't disavow it because even though they obviously personally disagree with it, in many cases, they've decided that in their public facing characters, they will not wrong or cross Donald Trump.
So I think it's worse. Like, on one hand, it's people who have been convinced by Trump and love all of it, including she's mentally disabled, so of course they don't disavow it. Concurrent with that, you have this guy's despicable and terrible. He's lost everything or forced us to underperform everywhere since twenty eighteen. But for as long as he can controls the Republican Party, even if I'm part of why he controls it, I am not going to
publicly cross him. So I actually don't believe that McCarthy and Tom Emmer you mentioned. Also, Lindsey Graham was interviewed about the same thing, and he said, well, I prefer to talk about issues, weakest response you could have. I actually think they don't agree with it, but they realize until he doesn't, he has control of the Republican Party, and if they don't want to be on the outs with Democrats and on the outs with Trump, they kind
of have to just go along with it. Now, I want to say one other thing about the election night scenario you mentioned. I do think the most likely scenario is a modest win by Kamala Harris when it comes to the electoral College, but one that will be pretty clear by midnight Eastern or at the latest by that morning. I do think that's the most likely scenario. I do think that the people immediately around Trump will do exactly what you said, which is they'll come to defend him
with their irregularities and all of the different stuff. But I do think it's becoming increasingly clear to most Republicans that if Trump doesn't win, it's over for him. I know there's debate will he run again in twenty twenty eight, will he not run again if he loses. I don't think he's running again, And I think it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy where by the early morning of November sixth,
every sane Republican defines sane however you want. But even these guys who kind of recognize the damage that Trump has done to the party, I think they'll realize that Trump has lost the power and they will start abandoning him. They won't denounce him, but I think that by the end of November sixth, if Trump loses, you are going
to have a large cadre of Republicans. They won't be praising Kamala Harris, but they're going to be ready for a completely non Trump midterm and certainly twenty twenty eight. I think it's over for Trump. If he loses, he'll say he won. Some people will try to push some kind of scheme, but I think Republicans will start dropping within twelve hours of the election.
Results.
Okay, a lot too unpacked there. I totally see how that scenario plays out, that it's like pushing a car uphill and all of a sudden, the momentum is over forward, progress is done, and it's just gonna start rolling back hill, back down the hill. Right, It's just you know, it's not it's not going to not going to go up one more inch.
But I'm gonna come back to that. So I was on I was on.
Script's Morning Rush a month month or so ago, and the subject came up about Trump in twenty twenty eight, and so I'm with you because I like to view myself as.
The sane person.
Right, So, of course, right, the idea that he would run again, there's only been one person in all of American history who's ever been a four time nominee. FDR Trump is one of three that's done it, including him, right, that's done it three times. But when I was on television and I answered the question, is everybody going to go to more Lago seeking his support?
And the answer is going to be yet.
Will he be restrained enough to say, I don't know. We'll have to wait and see, because he doesn't have to run for president.
He just has to.
Freeze the race with a weight and see. And my question about Trump twenty eight, imagining your laws and stipulating to how completely insane it sounds, is if you could get to Trump twenty twenty four, right, if by twenty twenty four, this will we're in if he didn't cross the line between twenty and twenty four of no return, meaning that if he didn't do things by the time we get to this year they did inhibit your ability to support him or more precisely, to say no to him, like.
No, you shouldn't run again.
Then what's going to happen that's different this time than what happened last time. With regard to someone like Lindsey Graham, you know who I spent a year in my life with traveling around America on a presidential you know, campaign airplane. I just I think it's the great question, right, how the fever breaks? Because and I write about this obviously, and I talk about it all the time, but you
just said it perfectly on a couple minutes ago. None of these people believe right that Kamala Harris is mentally disabled, but none of them will repudiate it because they're cynics, And so what you have with Trump in this coalition, a coalition of believers and senics, true believers, right, true MAGA fanatics, and and people that think those people are crazy. But nevertheless, you know, are all sitting around the table with each other trying to get political power in the country.
So I think it's the I think it's the great question at hand is where what happens to Trump?
Right? What? Where?
Where does he go? What does he do? You know in the aftermath of this, if you proved to be right, and I'm with you, I I think that that more likely than not that that's what's going to happen. Right, They'll there'll be an exhaustion that sets in. But then again maybe not, because his hold on them has been has been pretty pretty strong. And you know, the reality is to take an avalanche, right, It's like, if enough momentum gates downhill, right, it's people get on board with
this craziness. You know, if it stalls out at all early, right, you may have a break in the avalanche.
I don't know.
I think the question about the fever breaking is reasonable, and if you kind of step back, it's not unreasonable to say, well, hold on. He lost twenty twenty and said we're going to take it back and held the party in limbo and then said I am running. And he still had the vast majority of the support and they're not abandoning him. Why wouldn't the exact same scenario play out over the next four years that did the
last four years. But I think there are differences. One is, in twenty twenty there were more people than I expect there will be this time who went with the it was stolen and we need lass suits and we need this in that Trump will try it, but with the experience that it failed in twenty twenty, I think he's going to get less momentum with that. That'll be one difference. Number Two, there's a difference between a two time loser and a one time loser, which maybe he didn't even
really lose. It's going to start feeling different. It's going to be an accumulation. And then Trump will also, you know, he'd be eighty two at the time of the next one. And I think in the same way that some people felt many people felt that Joe Biden is too old to do four or more years. You'll have a slice that thinks the same about Trump. So I just don't believe the momentum will get going on November sixth the way it did in twenty twenty, despite anything Trump can do.
Or say, what do you think that Harris has to do to close this out and put this away?
I mean, to a degree, it's like it seems if she doesn't make mistakes, she'll have a narrow electoral victory. I don't know if I look at it quantitatively. First, it's like it's looking like Trump might be able to flip Arizona and Georgia, but also maybe not, and even if he does, he still loses. So in a sense, it's almost like if nothing changes and no major mistake takes place, she probably wins with between two seventy eight
and three oh six, which I believe. I don't remember if it's three oh three or three oh six, which is what it would be this year if she had the same states. And I know there's been a slight realignment of the electoral votes, but it seems the most likely outcome is a Harris victory with between two seventy eight and the low threes, with a couple states maybe flipping.
So that's my instinct, which is, I don't think she really needs to do anything other than keep doing rallies with the crowd sizes that she's getting, don't make any major mistakes. But I also am not so naive as to think that nothing will happen over the next thirty days that will require something of her that will be a departure from what she's been doing, and I just don't know what that is.
I think that the Haitians eating pet story is of monumental importance because if I can convince anybody that that's true, I can convince them of anything right. That's that's a lie of authority. It's also while ludicrous and I certainly laughed out loud, and if someone was recording me, I don't know what my facial reaction would have been. But you know, I Kamala Harris spoke for the world, right, for the for the country, you know when she encountered it.
That being said, it is a malicious racist lie, as absolutely vicious as anything that came out of the mouth of a striker or at Goebels.
It is the humanizing.
He would not have been talking about Scandinavians like this.
You know.
The picture is hordes of tribal blacks descending on this white town of Springfield, Ohio and snatching the golden Retrievers out of the backyard for some voodoo ceremony, eating them. And he won't stop. When he finds out the hospitals are lockdown, that the schools are locked down, he won't stop. He's doubling down. He is repeatedly talking about locking up political opponents, shutting down mediate organizations, revenge violence, prepping the country for the election.
Is going to get at stolen.
And so I've analogized many times the race to a river, and the current only takes the water in one direction, so there's never ever going back. And I started a couple of weeks ago talking about how incendiary, how crazy, how the rhetoric is going to increase, And it's increased in that direction substantially in the last two weeks. October is here. What do you see it had? I have a lot of worry about about this month. Is that is going to be a chaotic month in American life,
in American and American politics. I'm Steve Schmidt. This is the warning, and I invite you to join subscribe on our substack, on our YouTube channel, follow us, Welcome to the community,