Thirty nine days remain until the Democratic National Convention convenes in Chicago. It is July the eleventh, twenty twenty four. This is the warning. Today, Tim Alberta published a long profile of the Trump campaign chieftains Susie Wiles and Chris la Sevita. The story is yet in another epic profile by Tim Alberta, and it captures perfectly this moment. I'm going to read some parts from it. Only one thing could disrupt that plan, a change of candidates atop the
Democratic ticket. There was always a certain danger inherent to this assault on Biden's faculties. If Wiles and las Aveta were too successful, if too many Democrats decided too quickly that Biden was no longer capable of defeating Trump, much less serving another four years thereafter, than they just losing an ideal opponent against whom they're Every tactical maneuver had already been deliberated, pull tested, and prepared. Campaigns are usually
on guard against peaking too soon. In this case, the risk for Trump's team was Biden bottoming out to early. Let's flash up what the election result was in twenty twenty. These are the states that voted for Donald Trump. These are the states that voted for President Biden. And this was the final result, Joe Biden winning by forty four thousand votes across these three states. That's it a raisers edge game of very very small numbers. Now, let's look
at the race in twenty twenty four. Let's project all of the states that Donald Trump is certain to win, and let's accumulate and add up those electoral votes. Now, let's add up the states that Joe Biden is absolutely going to win. Now, let's add up the electoral votes. Now, let's take those states off of the map and let's just look at the states that are in play that decide the outcome. This is how the race looks. This is where Donald Trump stands in twenty twenty four. This
is how the map would look on election night. If the election were tonight, Trump would win, and he would win decisively. And so here we sit, thirty nine days from the Democratic Convention. The storyline and the narrative change is minute by minute. Here the President has called in to mourning Joe. He may have spoken with Mika. The President is up, Oh, he's down, It seems Senator Schumer desperate to be majority leader is ready to throw his
old colleague over the rail if necessary. We see Nancy Pelosi trying to make a vision statement of sorts, a guidance statement, giving the president room space to avoid the humiliation of history, recalling the time that Democratic leaders had to march down to the White House or be flown into Camp David to speak to the restraints necessary on an ego so vast as to be comparable to only
one person's, which is exactly what John Stewart did. There is a moral case for Biden's can to see in twenty twenty that is gone, evaporated forever, that cannot be recaptured because of what fifty one million people witnessed. And it is holding the Biden campaign's head under proverbial water, drowning it. And so now Senator Peter Welch has come out and said that Biden should retire from the field, that he should put the country first. In so moment by moment, up and down and down and up again
and again. But one thing is certain. Trump is on top, and he's pointing forward, he's advancing, he's in command, he's in control, he's winning. Only one thing, one thing interrupts that now, And it's the ability to understand that there's a red button for a reason, that lifting the glass case above it has been envisioned and banging down on it is the right thing to do in the right circumstance. Hitting that button, and only Joe Biden can hit it,
scuttles all of Trump's best laid plans. What matters here is America. People who take to the television cameras to say things like I'm with Joe no matter what, blindly like the Republicans who lined up with Trump, are no different whatsoever. There are thirty nine days, and so long as the president does not face reality, and so long as this situation hangs, American democracy simply twists in the wind.
When a presidential race comes down to moment by moment survival tests, can the as it then make it through the five o'clock NATO news conference. It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of the political crisis. Put aside who, what, why? How did this happen? Except that it has, and an accepting realize that a campaign that has held hostage to events as trivial as a NATO news conference is in big, big trouble. There are thirty nine days for Democrats to
do something. It's a lot of time and politics. The Trump convention is at hand, and soon it will consume the show and give the president a bit of breathing room, a reprieve. But then he will be called upon to answer the insanity and the madness, and there will still be a lot of time on the clock. And the simple truth is that Joe Biden, since the debate, has not moved an inch four and the campaign has not thrown a punch. And that's no way to hold the presidency,
though it's a perfect path to losing it. This is the warning. I'm Steve Schmidt. This is the warning, and I invite you to join. Subscribe on our substock, on our YouTube channel, follow us. Welcome to the community.