The Value Perspective with Andrew Elliott

Juan and Roberta welcome Andrew Elliott onto the podcast. Andrew, an actuary and author, specialises in how we use numbers to create benchmarks that allow us to process and contextualise different scenarios.

We start out with a quiz to see how good the Value Team is at estimating the world around them and then we move on to discus how to create benchmarks, see how the relationship between words and numbers shapes our perceptions and how difficult it is to communicate probabilities.

Feel free to test yourself on Andrew’s website: Isthatabignumber.com

Episode Minutes:

1:05 Intro

2:20 Andrew’s background

7:19 Andrew quizzes the Value Team

13:10 The Value Team quizzes Andrew

15:37 How a base level of benchmarks can help you create accurate ranges when making estimated guesses

20:52 Building out your mental models to create more confident conclusions

22:55 The links between numbers and words  - why do words matter so much when they’re not very precise?

27:50 Where does the word benchmark come from?

28:45 Why do human beings struggle so much with big numbers and what tools can we develop to better handle them?

34:34 The use of the average: are they misleading?

39:20 How can this apply to insurmountably large problems like climate change?

43:39 How do we get people to understand the role that luck plays in everyday life?

49:14 Two notable chances

53:32 Book Recommendations and a time when a poor outcome came through poor process, not bad luck

 

Book recommendations:

Is that a big number? By Andrew Elliot

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling

The First Scientist: Anaximander and His Legacy by Carlo Rovelli

 

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