You, guys, we are less than three weeks away from election day. What will happen? Where does this race stand? You look at the real clear of politics averages. You look at a lot of these polls that come out. I mean, it looks like this race is a coin flip. It looks like all these battleground states are largely within the margin of error. Then you look at things like the betting odds and the betting ods have Donald Trump
winning by almost sixty one percent. And then you also look at some of the actions that Kamala Harris and her campaign are taking. She's had a complete shift in her media strategy. She's going to be going on Fox News with Brett bharrsch will have done that interview that will err by the time you're hearing this. She's also made a concerted effort to sit down with liberal media, which would elude and give the idea that she is
maybe worried about her base. We have seen her recently come out with this opportunity agenda for black men, basically trying to buy their votes, including legalized marijuana, which I think says a lot about how she've used black men. We've seen Barack Obama come out and try to shame black men the whole Joe Biden's strategy, Oh you ain't black if you vote for Donald Trump. That all speaks
to me of desperation. So is the polling true? Are these polls true that we're saying, and also are there any groups of voters that we should be watching for? Are there any groups of voters that will surprise us on election Day? We're going to talk to a numbers guy. He's constantly crunching the numbers. His name is Ryan Gerdusky.
He founded the seventeen seventy six Project. It is a pack dedicated to school board races, very important looking at locally from the ground up in and elections across America. He also has a newsletter called the National Populist Newsletter. It's on substack. You can follow that where he breaks down a lot of the numbers where he's looking at races both here in the United States as well as globally as well. But he really digs into the numbers.
So I think you're really going to enjoy this conversation kind of nerding out a little bit for the next hour. But before we get to Ryan, I want to tell you a little bit about IFCJ it's really important. October seventh was the one year mark of the worst massacre of the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Twelve hundred Israelis were murdered and more than two hundred and fifty taken hostage.
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at eight eight eight four eight eight IFCJ. That's eight eight eight four eight eight four three two five, or you can go online to support IFCJ dot org to give that's one word support IFCJ dot org. Ryan, it's great to have you on the show I've been watching on CNN. You've been doing a great job. It's sort of interesting to see people's heads explosed when explode when you when you face them with the facts. So you're doing a great job.
Thank you. Well.
I wanted to, you know, sort of big picture, where do you think this election stands today?
It's so razor like thin, like the margins, And I don't know whether there are parts of me that sit there and say it's razor thin because polsters are very afraid of getting burnt like they got in the last two elections, especially in twenty twenty not twenty twenty two. I'm talking about like the presidential elections. Every time Trump's on the ballot, and there are so part of me says they're all worried about being wrong, so they're playing
it safe. And then another part of me says that, you know, if you look at a lot of these polls, you're seeing these huge margins for Harris among seniors among college educated whites, and frankly, you saw those exact numbers for both Hillary and Biden and neither one ended up being true. So is it that there's an enthusiasm gap as far as who wants to talk to a polster and is throwing their weight behind it? Now, there is big excitement for Harris. It's not like it doesn't exist.
And you're seeing that in the first day voting in Virginia, the first day voting in Georgia, first day of voting appsent emails in Pennsylvania. Democrats are are showing up in really big numbers. But is it just that it's very enthused Democrats are showing up in very big numbers, or is it that the overall population is showing up? Kind of I kind of venture on the fact is people who would have been voting no matter what are just voting first day because they, you know, watch Rachel Maddowen
live to hey Donald Trump. So we'll wait, we have to wait and see. I mean, it's not there's no clear answer. What I would love if anyone listening to your podcasts or anybody else could do this, if you could, if anyone could find out like in Pennsylvania mail in ballots, that pennsylvani is one of the very very few states in the country that is a swing state that also
has party registration. That if they could find out if these Republicans who are turning in their ballots and requesting ballots are low perpensity or high propensity voters, that would really give us a much better number as to what's really going on than just looking at the estimates. So we don't know people's voting history. And are we Democrats are hoping that Republicans high early turnout is cannibalizing their election day turnout. But we don't know that to be true.
We don't know that not to be true. We really have no idea.
Well, so dig into that a little bit because I know you've been posting and following. You know, the data were available with st ballot requests as well as returns in different states. I guess you know you kind of alluded to it a little bit before. But you know, what does that data tell you? Does it tell you anything? You know, what are you trying to learn from that?
Right? There are seven big swing swing states, right, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So eight eight big swing states. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada have a party registration. The other states do not. So when you're looking at Georgia, Georgia is the only one of those states that reports racial voting by by black, white, Hispanic, YadA, YadA, YadA. Aside from that, everything is just geographical locations that were
really estimating it. Our big Trump counties coming out are big Biden counties coming out. We don't know party affiliation. But we'll go to Pennsylvania because Pennsylvania, while they do not have early in person voting, they do have a very robust absentee mail in situation. So as of right now, Republicans are just shy of a half a million ballad
requests yesterday, This is fresh off the presses yesterday on Tuesday. Sorry, this morning, on Wednesday, October sixteenth, at eight thirty, they posted the update and there were thirteen thousand, eight hundred new absentee ballot request for Republicans. There were ten thousand, eight hundred for Democrats. Republicans posted nearly three thousand more absentee ballot requests than Democrats did. That is the highest margin for Republicans over Democrats in at least ten years.
On a single day that is never that doesn't happen. Republicans are about two hundred and ten thousand more absenty ballot requests then they were in twenty twenty two, and they are about one hundred and fifty thousand more than Democrats were in twenty twenty two. That's a pretty good number. And I use twenty twenty two two because it was in COVID, you know, twenty twenty was. Republicans are going to get very very close. They only have eleven more days.
They're probably going to be if I had to take an estimated guess, they're probably going to be about one hundred and fifty to one hundred thousand votes short of their twenty twenty numbers. Democrats will be about eight hundred thousand short of their twenty twenty numbers. Now that doesn't mean Democrats are not going to go vote, they're just not voting via absentee. So what does that look like as far as as far as the election goes. Banking
your vote early is very, very very important. We just don't know if those voters for Republicans are lower propensity voters who would have voted anyway or sorry, who would have not voted, were not guaranteed to show up to vote, versus those who are always guaranteed to vote. I will say this, as far as ballots being returned, Democrats are just killing it. When it comes to returning ballots on time.
Democrats have a very, very very sizeable lead to Republicans of over a quarter of a million ballots being returned so far, that could all change. And as long as Republicans keep out pacing Democrats. If that happens with requests, then the potential for them to run very close to dead even or at least within a four hundred thousand voter difference is very important for Republicans in Pennsylvania.
And it's like, but if they're requesting ballots, you've got to chase those ballots and make sure they turn them in right now.
But you can always turn them in on election day. And I've heard that from a number of people in Pennsylvania who are like, I'm requesting my ballot early so I have it and then I'm going to hand it in on election day. That's totally legal, perfectly fine. People
do that. I always like to sit there and say, if you know yourself and you're not a if you're somebody who likes to sleep in, you've got a baby, your car is not reliable, you don't like the rain or the snow or whatever the weather situation could be, just go hand in your ballot early, like, just go vote early, get it out of the way, and bank your vote, because you would be by the amount of people who either think that they have voted and haven't or have every good intention to go vote, and then
they just forget, They just forget on Electionally. I worked because I worked in campaigns for a long time. I worked for Jdvanca Super Pac. I had a candidate one time running for Congress. This is back in twenty ten, who went through his voter history and where like, you didn't vote in like two of the last three presidential elections. And he was like, yes, I did. And I was like, I'm looking at your history. You did not vote. And there's so many people who don't vote and they think
they do. Chapel Roone, that pop star right now. She sat there and she said about voting and YadA, YadA, YadA, and someone pulled up her voting history and she had never voted, which is very normal. But like to said, there in a ten year old like a political activist and you never voted is more common than you would expect. So let's go to Georgia for a second. So Georgie is a very important state. Obviously, it's a state that Biden barely won. It's a state that Trump could easily win,
and he's been ahead in the polls. A big problem for Republicans in Georgia is that high counties with large populations of non college educated whites, a lot of counties that vote heavily Republican, have absolutely horrendous, horrendous turnout. Marjorie Taylor Green's district, which is the most Republican district in the state of Georgia, had I think it was like seventy thousand fewer votes than the city of Atlanta. Now it's not that their voters don't live there, they do.
They just don't show up and they're not mobilized in the way that Atlanta is the most. If Republican counties and Republican congression districts voted at the same level Democrats did, Trump would have won that state of Georgia by oh easily over seventy thousand votes without having a convincent anybody. So as far as the raw vote goes, obviously the most populated counties Fulton, Cobb to Cap Gwenette, these are
very blue counties with large populations. They had the most votes that came in on the first day of early voting. It was a record breaking day. But there's a very big caveat. In twenty twenty, half a million people had already voted by absentee before they've started in person voting. This time, I think like it's like twelve thousand voted absentee. Almost nobody voted absentee by mail. Everyone was waiting to vote in person. So there's a high intensity, but it's
they are switching just platforms. I mean, people are just voting from absentee to mail it.
You know, looking at North Carolina, how do you think Helene could impact the election? I know NPR found that fifty two percent of the county's FEMA designated as places residents could qualify for aid. Trump one or fifty of those counties overall, Right, so North, So how do you think their ability to get to you know to vote.
Well, it's very very difficult to sit there and say one. I genuinely don't know if we're ever going to find out how many people or if they are not ever. But we don't know as of now how many people just died and they're gone missing, or they are moved into like camp somewhere, or they're just off the grid. I mean, we just don't know. What I have looked at is if you look, there's two important parts. One
Western North Carolina is the most liberal part of Appalachia. Right, it is far more liberal than Appalachia in Virginia, West Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. It is the most liberal part in a big part because Asheville is in San Francisco on the east coast. It has I mean, the city of Asheville voted like ninety two to eight for Joe Biden, and that was completely crushed. The outsized counties in the north, like Eastern area, those are the ones that were really devastated.
They're not that populated. So while the region as a whole is very populated, the parts that were truly decimated were not that populated. And when you when you look at the counties of role that gave to gave votes to Biden versus those that gave to Trump. It's about a thirty five thousand margin in favor of Biden for the Blue counties and a thirty thousand and thirty five thousand margin for the Trump counties. It may be even maybe Asheville will recoup faster because it's a city and
they'll start going out to vote early. I don't know, is like the answer. It shouldn't be the biggest change.
I mean that everyone affected. Everyone sits there and says, when you realize the population changes in rural black North Carolina, how the population has shrunk when you look at the amount of people who have moved to the state and increased voter registration, We're not a lot of people sit there and say, oh, look at twenty twenty and those are That's true for states that are especially stagnant in
population or maybe even shrinking a little in population. It's not true for North Carolina, which is such a robust population growth, because there's about a quarter of a million new voters that weren't there four years ago. What alone people just turning eighteen, but people moving from the northeast during COVID that changed dramatically the makeup of North Carolina
in a lot of ways. So I don't know, it's not I don't think as of right now it's going to decide the election, simply because the Asheville population kind of offsets the other populations. And if Western North Carolina voted like Western Virginia, I would sit there and say, yeah, it's so those are Republican vashion it's the most republican part of the state. It's frankly not the most republican
part of the state, not even close. Further Inland and into eastern North Carolina is much more Republican than Western North Carolina. So I know there's a big fear of the voting situation going on. I think the Republicans do everything they can. I think they've changed some rules there to help it make it easier for people to vote. But we'll have to wait and see.
You know. One thing I think is interesting this election cycle is, you know, and it seems pretty consistent in various surveys where more voters are identifying as Republican than Democrat. You know, we saw that Gallup poll not too long ago, finding that by three points more voters identify as Republican than Democrats. First time Republicans had that advantage in the third quarter before a presidential election since nineteen ninety two.
It's hard to imagine that that won't translate into the Republican Party, you know, performing that way in both presidential and down ballot. But you know, how do you read that? I mean, that is different than past elections.
It's very difficult. So what like the New York Times, Nate Cohen, who's a very smart guy, what Ham, what Nate Silver. What they're all looking at is we all believe that there's some kind of a realignment. Right, minorities are especially more Republican, and the national polling is substantially better for Trump than it is for him in twenty
or twenty four. The question that's on everyone's minds, and we'll find this out after election day, is is it because blue states are significantly voting more read than previous election cycle. So I wrote this in my substack, the National Populist newsletter. What they're betting on in a lot of polls is Trump is down fourteen points in New York. That's the state he lost by twenty three points. Last time, he's down by twenty three points. In California state he
lost by twenty nine points. They're looking at these very blue states Hawaii, Rhode Island, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, California and saying, wow, he's posting five point plus ships largely on the back of Asian, Hispanic Jewish Orthodox Jewish voters who am some Black voters who are just like, we are not doing this anymore, Like we've really been screwed by democratic governance from the local government onwards. And
that could be super helpful. If you're Mike Garcia, if you're Mike Lawler, you're hoping for these huge ships right wing because it will inevitably help you win these congressionals seats. But it won't flip these states red maybe over long trend lines.
It will do by the down ballot, you know, yea, it helps you.
At the same time, if suburban America is still voting very left well, and they're increasingly moving left, white college educated voters will then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin may be too far for you to reach. And that's really where the big question is is, like, is this realignment house significance realignment.
And when it comes to polls, and I mentioned this before the break or sorry, before we started, was that if you look at poles, there's a lot of polls in sixteen and in twenty that overestimated the support among college educated whites. It's a group that both Hillary and Biden won, but they didn't win them at the margins that pollsters said they would in a lot of these poles. If you deep dive into cross tabs, which you will go insane from doing, which is why I don't suggest
because I do it all the time. You see a lot of times Harris winning seniors. And I've written significantly about this, or wrote this for the American Conservative magazine and for my sub stock. The seniors are a group that have voted Republican in every election since at least the year two thousand. There has been no break with seniors.
And actually the group underneath seniors were who would be seniors now but weren't four and eight years ago, vote more Republican than seniors now than seniors in the past. So given that there should be close to no shift, it's basically a very fixed group unless you've died or you've aged into the senior citizen category. There's not like a plethora of new immigrants who are seniors who are coming to this country and are voting. The key thing is is that they all have Harris winning this group.
And my belief is is that one polling is extremely expensive. If for a good poster, it could cost you fifty sixty thousand dollars per poll.
They used to work in polling.
Yeah, it's very expensive and it's very hard to do. So a lot of times pollsters will go to people that they know answer polls, and they have reported a huge swing in favor of Harris among seniors. I fundamentally do not believe this to be true. That is why I think the polls are underestimating Trump support, just like they did four and eight years ago. That is like the big fear that Harris people have. I know, I've spoken to a lot of reporters who are very familiar
with both parties internals. Both Trump's internals and Harris internals have both respective people winning. But it's all within the margin of error. It's all sitting there and saying it's Harris plus one Trump plus one, which really means it could be anyone's ball game. Based upon who shows up.
We've got more with Ryan, but first I want to tell you a little bit about Saber. Every twenty six seconds, violent crime takes place in the United States, and rising crime threatens families. That's why the Saber Pepper projectile launcher should be your first choice. It's the only sixty eight caliber launcher with the seven projectile capacity, offering up to forty percent more shots than other brands for super ferior home defense. For nearly fifty years, Saber has been dedicated
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radio dot Com. That's pretty remarkable given the facts, you know. The Trump campaign put out a memo recently talking about how since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent two hundred and forty one million dollars in untrackable media spend compared to about one hundred and five million from the Trump campaign, nearly two point five to one spending advantage. And yet the Real Cleared Politics national average has her,
you know, by less than two percent. And on the same day twenty twenty, Biden was up ten point three percent. So and then you look at the media coverage where you know, eighty four percent positive for eighty nine percent negative for Donald Trump.
Right, And if you look at the most important thing, and I sent this to I was talking to somebody very up in the in the Trump campaign. If you look at Pennsylvania, right, A lot of Republicans are having this nervousness about Pennsylvania, especially given that Oz and these Real Care Politics pulling average was ahead at the very end and then went on to lose by five points. What's important to remember is if you strip away the
partisan polls and you look at non partisan poles. I'm talking to Fox News, CNN, Quinnipiac, the New York Times, Marist, they all had Fetterment up by five. It was right wing polls that really threw OZ such a heavy advantage. And the way the Real Care Politics and there were great websites, so I'm not trashing them. But the way they do it is they age polls out eventually after a week or two, and they put the new poles up.
But that's not what's going on right now. In Pennsylvania, Emerson, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Susquehanna Maris, Washington Post, and Muhlberg all have Pennsylvania either Trump leading or tide. In Wisconsin, the Wall Street Journal, Emerson, and Quineypiac all have Trump winning or tiede and Michigan Emerson, Quineypiac, and MIRS polls and the new one which was Fabreezia pull A's a Republican bolster, but they all had Trump tied or winning. So there are a lot of non partisan poles sitting
there and saying, no, this could go for Trump. Really, turnout is the key motivating thing that I think it's important to kind of focus in on apparent ballot voting and showing up. Democrats are really hoping that these super blue counties and these very ambitiously aggressively anti Trump voters build a firewall for them basically so that way, no matter if a million people show up on election day,
they've already banked these votes. Republicans have caught wise to it a bit, especially after being burned in twenty twenty two. I think that's what you're seeing in Pennsylvania as far as Absentee ballad or westco. It's just a matter of do they show up beforehand and are they lower pensity voters versus hyperpency voters. And also, mind you, another important thing, and we saw this out of Virginia right now. Virginia's obviously not really a swing state. It's almost surely going
for Kamala Harris. But what we saw out of Virginia is places like rural black counties and Prince William County all until like yesterday. Princeville County posted big numbers like two days ago, but before then they were having very low turnout in precincts that were majority black, rural black, majority Hispanic districts that had voted for Trump by I'm sorry for Biden by over seventy percent, had a far worse early vote turnout so far. I actually have the numbers.
I could just read them to you. Give me one second. They had a far worse early turnout. So this is as of two days ago. In the districts that voted for Trump by over eighty percent, right they have a nine percent to vote registered voter turnout as of right now. In the districts that voted for Trump by under twenty percent, those are almost exclusively either college educated whites or black precincts.
They voted for Trump by under about ten point three percent, And districts that had voted a little more for Biden twenty to thirty percent for Trump had a ten percent. So I know that's a lot of numbers. So about ten percent for districts that had voted for Biden by over seventy percent, and about nine percent for dishes of voted for Trump by over eighty percent. The districts that are showing up in these early precincts in Virginia voted
for Trump by between fifty and seventy percent. That's who's showing up in the highest amount in Virginia. Now. Once again, Virginia is not a swing state. But the idea that elections are local is not true. Elections are national. The way that those voters in Virginia are showing up are the way those voters in Pennsylvania are showing up are
the way those voters in Georgia are showing up. So as the time continues to pass, as we keep moving into the early election cycles, especially in Georgia, look out for the Black belts. The Black Belt being very you know, the descendants of slaves who live in rural Georgia. It stretches throughout central and lower and southern Georgia, their majority black counties. They have been trending to the right. Look
to see if they're showing up in early voting. If they're not showing up in Georgia, and if they're not showing up in Virginia and they don't show there's there's no gamer they're gonna showup on election day. And if that happens, that changes the economy of tens of thousands of votes possibly in lower rural pensity, lower lower preensity, rural minority districts across the South, so Georgia, North Carolina, and it could possibly also bleed out into you know,
other states. The other people you need to look out for is in a lot of secondary populated cities. So I'm not talking Philadelphia, I'm not talking in Pittsburgh or Phoenix. I'm talking smaller cities Dethlehem, Pennsylvania, Lancaster, Pennsylvania, Reading Pennsylvania, Prince William County, Prince the area around Prince William County, Virginia. All of those places are majority Hispanic. They have had
thus far fairly low turnout. If there is a big push by Trump, if he's going to jump up two three four points, and if Harris is going to go down three four points among Hispanics in this demographics, if those lower pensity voters are not ambitious to vote like they were in twenty twenty, it's still overall a loss in the raw vote count for Harris. So those are
the things that I will personally be looking for. Given that in most states we don't have party registration, and in the states we do put a registration, we don't know people's past voting history. Those are little context clues and little tea leaves we could sit there and try to read.
The only difference I would say, probably or perhaps is that you know, Virginia is also not being inundated with negative advertising about Donald Trump lake states like Pennsylvania or Georgia would be, and people aren't probably chasing ballots as much in Virginia as they are in some of these other states.
Right, well, there are groups because remember there are there are a lot of organizations that care about Virginia's congressional districts. Virginia has two, maybe three, if you want to stretch it, maybe three districts that are really important the seventh Congression, of the second congressional on the tenth congressional So there's a lot of effort in those three very important congressional districts.
If the Republicans can flip the seventh congressional district in Virginia, that would be a gigantic, gigantic win for the party. So there's a lot of work being done on the ground,
not as much on the presidential level. But once again, it's not like you can be really divorced, you know, except if you're I mean, the golden hour of television for people, for advertisers is the hour between the local news and Jeopardy and Will of Fortune, which still has raizy high viewership and it pays for all local television. So you'll still see some ads there. But I mean, you're going to see digital ads on every single platform,
regardless of where you live. You're going to see some level of advertising and there are local groups that are doing pushing to get early votes out. And young Glenn Youngkin has a lot to prove right now too, because if Glenn Youngkin can sit there and say, hey, we flipped the seventh we kept the second congressulation Republican, and we got Virginia down to a five point margin again, you know, I would be a perfect choice in twenty twenty eight or a great Senate candidate in twenty twenty six.
That's not really lost in anybody. So they these local governors have a lot if they can sit there and pull their candid their states close to the victory and bring congressional districts with them.
You know, Ryan, that's a great point. You know. You know obviously you know we're looking at the data. We're trying to assess, you know, where this race stands here, you know, very close to election day, which is wild. But you know, we also in addition to the data, we also look at, you know, sort of the messaging and who campaigns are trying to you're kind of looking at like the big picture, like all of it. And we've seen her campaign make this heavy pushed for men,
specifically for black men. You know, she basically just announced all these giveaways for black business owners, including legalizing marijuana. We've said, we've said, which really I think shows us what they think of black men. But we've got Obama basically like the whole another Joe Biden like you ain't black. You know if you vote for Trump more or less. You know, this real shaming of black men who plan on voting for Trump. So I guess what does that
tell you? And and sort of reading the tea leaves and and even just this, you know, the messaging pitch as we head into election day.
I ken, I do not believe there is a universe where you switch media strategies a month out that shows you're in a good place. And especially by the fact, I mean, she's doing a lot of media, so kuuz dirett bear threat bear, She's doing a bunch of other stuff, but she's doing a lot of media that one is hyper friendly and two that is trying to restore her base. You don't do the view as audience is majority black women,
the Charlemagne, the God is majority black men. You're going to your own people saying don't forget to vote for me, which you should be doing. But she didn't do it beforehand, and she was not particularly that great when she did the view. Charlemine the God was okay. It was a friendly interview. We'll see how what happens on Brett Bayer.
We'll see if she does Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan would be a very very insane interview because he's an audience that he's one against her into she's been super protected to now. I don't know if there's much that is going to change people's minds. A lot. I mean, there'll be a few things here or there. Here there, I mean a few voters, and that could make the difference.
A lot of it is turnout, and a lot of people that I know in my real life are like, I just either want this election be over or two can we substitute, you know, for two different candidates that I'm tired of both of them.
Well, I actually really like Trump.
But I'm not saying it's everybody, because I know people who would literally give up their lives for Trump. I'm just saying that, like, it's not I'm not saying it's everybody, but I do know a lot of But those are also people that I know they could be waterboarded and they were still going to go out a vote. Are the people who like they just they just don't know election is happening. You would be shocked, but there's always
and if you look at Poles. My favorite thing ever is like they'll be like your feelings on Trump or Harris or Biden, and they'll just be like three people like I've never heard of any of these people before, and I want to know those people so badly, Like I want to be like, how happy are you? Like, because you have to be the happiest human being in the world. You don't know what's going on, you don't care, You're living your life. I'm all about it.
But like totally yeah, like we can we live in their bubble.
Yeah, so nice, it's so well, it's so it's so wonderful to live in that world. But those are the people who are like, I'll vote, maybe I'll get to it, maybe election d I mentioned Chapel never voted before. Now she asked to take a stance. But there's a lot of people who are like, you know, if I show up, if I feel good that day, if it's not raining, if the kids don't bug me, you know, if my
knee doesn't hurt that they'll show up and vote. You would be shocked by the numbers who were just like as in twenty sixteen, there was a great article I think it was in five point thirty eight about the number of non college educated white Americans who were not even registered to vote, and it was north of forty two million. And it is wild how many people are just not even registered. Thankfully, one of the things I think Joshapiro did poorly for Democrats is he made automatic
voter registration in Pennsylvania based upon driver's licenses. Where you renew your license, we're going to get a license, you have to register to vote. I think that's partially response for the surge and Republican voting is a bunch of people without, you know, non college educated whites who were apathetic or now actually registered. About whether you like it
or not, I will tell you a quick story. I was speaking to one of my friends in Wisconsin and he's a big Republican and he's with his two college buddies and he's like, could you please tell them. They're like, we're not going to vote because the Electoral College it doesn't mean anything anyway. I'm like, yes, if you live in California, you live with Wisconsin like a lot, and it was like ten minutes my life. No, no, like you actually, but there are those people where I'm like no, like yes,
but no, because where you live it actually matters. And they were like blown away by that. So that's why when I say, like there are people who don't like Trump or Horse or people of course who do love them, but they're just apathetic to the whole process.
But it's also like, I don't know how people couldn't be motivated in this political environment, Like we've had one of the candidates to assassination attempts, We've got like sky high inflation, we've got you know, like world war potential breaking out, and like the Middle East and Europe. You know, it's like you go down the list of like you've got, you know, basically an invasion happening at the southern border. It's like what at this point, you know, what does
it take to get these people motivated? If they're not motivated right now?
Yeah, but it's the feeling that they don't think that the system will help them. Yeah, Like that's I just don't think the system will help them, and That's why it's so important to pick upon them. You know, the non college educated white vote is the most Republican vote there is. As far as I know, and maybe I am wrong, I know of at least a dozen organizations that focus and target black voters and black voter turnout and Hispanic go to turnout for both Republicans and Democrats.
There's none that exists for non college educated whites, and they are the biggest group. And I've been saying this. I said this to a couple people within the Trump universe, but like there are like six or seven, sorry, there's twenty million. Rather twenty million people in this country who live in mobile homes and mobile home communities definitely look down upon. They call them white trailer trash and all
the rest of it. But they are under a constant threat where they don't own the property they live on. They just own the mobile home and as a lot of corporate about of companies have bought those properties and are increasing rates and literally leaving people homeless. The biggest state for people who live in mobile homes are Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and then Pennsylvania that's all
those important states in the country. Having a message specifically tailored to them wouldn't have hurt them in this election cycle. And micro targeting to communities that are super lower pensity. Now Trump's trying to do that with young men, men vote less than women do in young men, especially by doing these podcasts, by going to do these interviews. It's just a matter of wrangling to the polls could be hard, and that's really where the whole gamble is. I don't
think Trump had another choice. I don't think there was another group people he could have gone to. I just hope that the ground game is so sufficient that it could bring them, because that's the big question.
Well, we've also seen, you know, Scott Pressler tweet about sort of even just try to reach the Amish community.
This drives me crazy. Wait, can I talk about the Amage for one second? You canh God, Okay, So here's the problem with the Amash community. There are a lot of Amish, especially in Pennsylvania, but most cannot vote because they are too young. Right, that's the first problem. Because the Amage have an average of six children per woman, most of them are super super young, and that is what like a major problem was of those who are
registered to vote. I'm going to bring out the actual numbers for you because there's a great university that studies Amish. Turnout the Amish. There's two major settlements, one being in Lancaster County, which is the big one, and one being around Mercer County is the second one of those. Here's the actual numbers. So in twenty twenty, right in Lancaster, let's go back, sorry to two thousand and four. Bush put a big effort in to get the homage to vote.
They were in two one thousand and four there were ten thousand, three hundred and fifty eligible Amish voters in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. Two thousand were registered to vote and thirteen hundred did. In twenty sixteen, there were fifteen thousand eligible Amish voters. Two thousand were registered, so no jump in registration over the course of those twelve years, despite the population increasing by fifty percent, and only one thousand
did and that was an even further decrease. There was a big effort put by the Republicans between sixteen and twenty to register and engage Amash voters. The number of Amish who were eligible to vote in Lancaster in twenty twenty were seventeen thousand, up two thousand from four years prior. Four thousand this time a registered to vote, so it doubled the amount of people registered to vote in the
Amish community, and three thousand did so. Seventy percent seventy one percent of all eligible Amish voters did in fact vote. That's fantastic. In a very very tight election. There could be six or seven thousand registered Amashed by this election in Lancaster and statewide it could be like eight thousand. There just aren't enough of them yet. Who are eighteen that will put it over the edge? I mean in a very close election, if it's like a thousand votes,
if it's Florid in twenty one hundred percent. But the numbers just aren't there yet. They will get there in a decade to two decades, because no how much population is more than I think it's tripled since I was born, or more than actually triples since I was born, And they're very important, especially in the Midwest. We're just not at that point yet.
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When you're these campaigns, you've got a finite amount of resources and you're trying to figure out, you know, who do you invest your money in in terms of you know, who do you think you can actually get to turn out? And you know, so you're you're trying to figure out where to spend that money and spend.
A lot for them, because they're got to be big. And the good thing is that younger Amish vote and older Amish don't so because they're very, very big belief in the separation of church and state. So but the younger Amash will be around for a long time and they are they're breeding like rabbits, so God bless them.
You know, I've been told by you know, individuals who I really trust looking at data every day to really look at the Jewish vote and that they believe Jewish voters it's going to be a big surprise on November fifth. You know, what do you make of that? And are there any other groups of voters you think that we're that are going to surprise us?
So the Jewish vote is changing one because of demographics, because secular Jews do not have kids and have not had kids for a very long time, going back to the nineteen seventies where their fertility rates were under replacement levels, and Orthodox and hasidam especially have large, large families like on par with the Amish. For the Hassidems and Hasidic vote,
you know, ninety percent Republican. You can look at Borough Park, Brooklyn, which is in central Brooklyn, you'll see a bright red spot in two thousand and eight, and if you go two thousand and sorry, in twenty twelve, tw sixteen, twenty bright red spot keeps growing and growing and growing and growing. That is in part the population change of Ustidham Jews, you know, by just fertility and growth, So that will definitely change the overall number at the end of the day.
The problem is most Jewish voters are just in fact liberal. They are just liberal, and they are liberal on everything from abortion to you know, taxes, to everything. Some have been red pilled. I have a friend who's a celebrity and he's talking to a very very well known Jewish celebrity who's very liberal, and they were like, Wow, they really hate us, and we're having a wake up moment. If it could if right now. In pollingd can Pew Research.
Pew Research has the largest sample size of any poles, over ten thousands, so they have a very good sample of Jewish voters. They have Trump doing the best of any Republican since nineteen eighty eight with a Jewish vote. Yet and still that only means he's getting like thirty five thirty six percent. If he can achieve that, If he can get to thirty seven percent, call that a win. The good thing is in that demographic. While there are a lot of Jews in Pennsylvania, they don't really exist
in other swing states and large populations. They're mostly concerted in like New York, New Jersey, Florida. So we'll see. I don't have a huge, huge hope that they will vote in large numbers. The other vote that I would be very interested in right now is the Asian vote because it is very small, but it is growing. They have the highest number one group of immigrants, the legal immigrants anywhere. We're Asians and have been Asians for over
ten years. People think it's Hispanics, but it's not. Viennese Koreans tend to track right. Indians Bangladeshi's are very very left wing. It will be interesting to see does Kamala engage the Indian community being an Indian woman. Does that change anything? Does it to change anything that she's you know,
part Asian when she decides to claim it. That will be interesting, especially in places like Orange County, California, and other down ballot effects I'm not so sure it's going to really change most of the swing states, especially because the rust Belt states and the East coast North Carolina, Georgia states, they are still ninety to ninety five percent black white electors, so they are very very kind of stagnant. More important will be turned out than micro targeting certain
communities like that. Maybe the Lumbee tribe will be interesting in North Carolina because they were It's an Indian tribe that was very democratic, and they moved super Republican, like in the blink of an eye for Trump. It went from like literally twenty percent for Romney to like seventy five percent for Trump over to election cycles.
And it'll be interesting to see what the Muslim vote looks like in Michigan, Yes.
And Georgia. There are two hundred thousand Muslims in Georgia. And the Care poll, which I said to Van Jones on CNN, the Care poll that found only fifty two percent of black Muslims are supporting Harris. And I think in one state Harris was actually in third place with the muzzle vote. I forget which one it is, but Stein was ahead of her. So that will be very very important. Not just in Michigan, but there's a lot of Black well, there's a lot of Muslims throughout the
whole South. There's a lot of Muslims in North Carolina. You have to remember since Sign eleven and we have more than doubled our Muslim population through immigration in this country. And it's not going to be very very long before Muslims will populate Jews in America. So our politics will change. I will say this if Trump, if Trump wins, and wins in part because of Michigan, because of the Muslim vote, you will never see it will be the end of
bipartisanship over Israel. Like in the blink of night. You'll never see a Democrat just rallying for Israel like they do now.
And that'll be because not because Muslims will be voting for Trump, but just they sit it out right.
Some will vote for Trump. We saw the Muslim mayor of that city in Michigan, Indorsetown, who's a Democrat. Some of them will some of them will vote for Trump for sure. Some of them will vote for Sign, some of them will set it out. It'll be a mixed bag. But it's not insignificant that the Muslim mayor of his town that, by the way, was like all white twenty years ago.
That's how fast the demographics have changed. That they're endorsing Trump and they're a Democrat and in a democratic state where they could probably have a long political future running for Congress, running for this, running for that, and they're saying, no, it's really important to respect to my people's values. That means that that it's actually real when someone's willing to give up their political future, which most politicians period aren't going willing to do to say that out loud.
So, yeah, he's a city of ham Trump.
Yeah, it's not on big city, but it's still americally there.
Yeah, I remember. And then well, so yeah, when you were talking about the Jewish people being red pilled, I was thinking about Bill Ackman too, who you know, really kind I went to the right after October seventh. And then now he's like totally based and sometimes he tweets things, uh.
Oh, I love those people.
I've been times I'm like, no, I don't know if we have all that evidence. I'm like, maybe you should just like give it a minute. But some of the tweets, I'm like, whoa, we really went from zero to sixty like very fast.
Here, well it's like nine eleven eleven. Yeah, a lot of people change the nine to eleven. I know people will change because the whole transgender kids thing. But like, you know, I have a really good Jewish friend who was, you know, super liberal, like I've donated to Obama and Hill are a very wealthy Jewish friend, I mean was a max out donor, and she her and her husband were just like we made all the wrong friends, like
these people really all hate us. And I'm like yeah, like you know, a lot of times, a lot of activists, like in the ADL, we're saying, oh, it's really white Christian America who is your enemy. You know, we can make all these unholy alliances with all these groups, all these far left groups, and all these immigrant right groups, all these black groups, all these Black Lives Matter groups, and they're going to be our natural allies because White
Christian America is really your enemy. And they like turned right around. They were like wait a second, what And in the end they were like it doesn't like it. These people hate us, And I'm like, yeah, you were never going to be excluded from the whole like uh, decolonization.
Uh effort on the part of the far left, who hate Christianity, they hate the West, they hate Judaism, they hate capitalism, Like you're every one of these things and you were not going to be exempt because you know you have a Star of David instead of across.
Yeah, you know, like gays for Palestine. You know, oh my god.
Some people are so lost, like you're like, there is.
No dude, you know that that's not going to work out for your.
I mean I would literally page these people to go to these places and just like, hey, just hang out on any round for like a month, ye on your last.
It's like, dude, It's that's not uh, that's not how it works there. So you like you can go to Israel and no problem. But you know, good.
Blue and it's just it's it's this insistency to hate everything that is a Western value and act a lot. The essential problem all of with modern day thinking is that people think everything good in our society one is the natural state of order, and two comes really easy.
And people, because we've become so gluttonous on our own success, people do not realize how fragile society is and how much time and work it took to build these enormously efficient, free stables, peaceful, wealthy societies, and if it goes away, it's not like it just automatically pops back up. It takes enormous sacrifice. And always my big fear is that we've just become too fat and lazy to preserve our own society, which is what we're seeing a lot in Europe,
and we really can't being America. We can't be the place.
That does that well. And before we go, we'll end on this, which is you know, probably not a happy point in them. But I think, you know, you know, with all the talk of January sixth, which has just been you know, absolutely relentless Trump Holiday, if if Trump wins, If Trump wins, I worry Democrats are going to make
that look like child's play. And you already have people like Rep. Jamie Ruskin and some of these top Democrats sort of like sowing doubt about if they're going to accept, you know, the outcome of the election if Trump wins. So I worry that, uh, you know, we will see like mass writing like we saw during the George Floyd riots. And you know, yeah I didn't because it was unexpected though, right.
Yeah, which is why they should do it. I think a lot of people do expect it. The betting markets certainly say Trump's going to win. I think people are I think the Trump de arrangement thing is real. But I think for the Norman people, they've just been exhausted by it. I think they're genuinely and totally exhausted by the state of high paper anxiety. I think it really has worn people to the very very brim, whether like I
just can't do it anymore. So, I don't know, And I think that the given the most Democrats are moving to the right on a number of issues, including Kamalo, who's like disavowing everything she did in twenty twenty and seven nineteen, I don't know if we're going to have a lot of Democratic politicians run and do it. But we'll see. I don't. I don't. I don't. I'm going to be more of an optimist than you on that.
That Oh all right, well, then we are ending on it. Well, I think Trump's gonna win too, I do. I always insert the caveat of just you know, they're better at the machinery of elections than we are, and they've had a big cash advantage.
Right, and they haves and stuff like that.
Yeah, yeah, but I do I do think. I do believe that the polls are underestimating a support because we've seen pretty consistently they've done that. And I've also just you know, heard and I mean just anecdotally, which you know, you can only take that so far. But of just people who have previously really hated Trumping, like I'm voting for him, Like I think there'll be people holding their nose.
You know, a lot of people, but a lot of people people, a lot of people. A lot of people do things because it feels right, like the right thing to do, like supporting Ukraine even though they can't find on a map, or like, you know, whatever is the thing. It's a matter of just the person does, like the Chapel Rome voter who has never voted in her life before, or the person who just voted in twenty twenty just to say I did it, I stuck into fascism. Do
they still show up? You know, That's the big question, and is as Trump has become more normalized, you know, especially to minority communities who thought that he was who was told that he was told he was a racist beyond belief? Does that tamper or the energy down to say, you know what, if I miss it, my life's not going to end. We're not going to put into concentration camps, as the Love says, We're not going to be our concerts being destroyed. I could set this one out. I'm
not passionate. I have to go vote to stop the next hitler. I don't know if those voters are as intense as they used to be.
Well, the irony is, you know, you look at Pulling during COVID and I think it was almost half of Democrats or I can't remember the specific number off the top of my head, wanted to put like unvaccinated people like me in camps. So it's like, you know, like, I'm pretty sure you would do that to us. Yes, and lastly before it is pretty remarkable. If Trump does win, which I pray to God he does that, it's not just defeating Kamala Harris. I mean it's defeating almost the
entirety of the media. It's having almost been assassinated twice, it's have almost been thrown in jail, almost bankrupted almost you know, you have big tech again again. It is pretty remarkable. It's like a repeat, you know what I mean, Like it is about something bigger, I think than just defeating Kamala Harris.
Yeah, and it's also a change in how Republicans are thought of by a lot of people. It's an energized base of work in class voters. It may be engaged minorities in a different way. There's still a lot of work to do with college educated whites. There's a lot of work to do still with minorities. There's a lot of work to do with engaging non college educated white voters.
But this he's definitely done far more work than we've seen in the last you know, even his first two campaigns and definitely his first one with all of these groups. But those kinds of things take time, and luckily part of it is because of the institutional party doing it, and a lot of it is organic. You know, you look at the Bronx. The Bronx doesn't have an actual Republican party. I mean it's a name only. They don't
have money, they don't have you know, labor. They have won elected Republican all the Bronx, and yet Republican margins are growing in every subsequent election in the Bronx. I'm almost entirely black and Latino and Jewish if they're white. Jewish County a very popular one. It's grown every single and it's out Democrats. That will be interesting for political nerds. It will be interesting to see like this AOC's district under twenty are a lot of super democratic tasors really
moving to the right. That will be a very big telltale sign for the future post this election and post Trump.
One day and where can people go in? You're a very smart guy. I follow you on Twitter. You always have great information and you've been killing it on CNN. They make me hopefully where could people find your work on.
Whether it's at Ryan or Dusky. Where I do most money social media. And then I have a substack called the National Populist Newsletter. It's like five dollars a month. I do a weekly newsletter roundup of the week's news that's about populism and nationalism. And then I try to get at least one post done during the week about the election or other countries' elections and some interesting information to nerd out on if you like politics.
And then you have the seventeen seventy six past.
Well we're just we just came out to say number twenty four the win. It's a school board pack where you're doing thirty seven elections for school board this November in Maryland and Arizona. So you can go to seventeen seventy six Project pacpacpack dot com, look at our endorsed candidates, support them if you live in their districts. And we've done over five or six hundred school board elections in the last few years. So it's great.
That's really important because I don't know how many times people have gone to vote, particularly you know in primaries. But also and you have no idea who these people are there, you know, and so yeah, and so it's like, you know, you're having to take a lot of time, like am I on Google trying to figure out who these people are before voting.
If you are, if you are a Republican for the future, if you want to change one voting habit, start voting from the bottom of your ballot and go up that way. You don't drop off because a lot of people go they vote for president and they walk away and they miss those really important local elections. Go vote from the bottom of the ballot and vote up and start with your school board. It will actually change your local community way more than whoever the president is.
Well, there you have it, so we're ending on a positive note. This is good.
Thank you so much, Lisa, and this.
Is so fascinating. I appreciate your time, Thank you those Ryan Gerdusky, Appreciate him for taking the time to come on the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week. I want to thank John Cassio and my producer for putting the show together. Until next time,