In this episode, we contrast corporate optimism against a backdrop of enduring inflation, address the financial pressures facing low-income consumers and the distress signals from rising subprime delinquencies, and examine the unexpected challenges in the mass-market adoption of EVs. 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:10 Prevailing Optimism 00:01:50 Low-Income Consumer Strains 00:03:54 EV Market Dynamics 00:04:56 Automaker Bets and Brand Loyalt 00:07:01 Hybrids Gaining Ground 00:07:54 Conclusion...
Feb 14, 2024•8 min
In this episode, we discuss the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, the surprising job market data, a soft European economy, and tech giants' AI-driven performance 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:15 Decoding the Fed's Signals 00:03:18 Soft Signals from Europe's Economy 00:04:21 Natural Gas Inventory Surprises 00:05:06 Tech Earnings and AI 00:07:58 Meta's Dividend Debut 00:09:16 Chips and Games: Industry Trends 00:10:51 Conclusion
Feb 06, 2024•11 min•Season 1Ep. 111
In this episode, we explore the potential soft landing, consumer spending resilience, Tesla's AI ambitions in the EV market, Boeing's challenges, and the big week ahead in big tech earnings.
Jan 31, 2024•13 min
In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer and analyze macro takeaways from earnings calls ahead of the Fed meeting this week.
Dec 12, 2023•6 min
In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from the first 3 weeks of earnings season. The key trend is the softening trends in the economy, the state of the EV market and the stabilization in cloud.
Oct 31, 2023•10 min•Season 1Ep. 108
In this episode, we discuss the takeaways from Jackson Hole, reflections on the state of the consumer from retailers, and the blowout quarter that Nvidia just hard.
Aug 29, 2023•13 min
In this episode we discuss signs of stability in the economy, reflections on the long-term implications of higher rates, and the impact of Taylor Swift on the economy.
Aug 08, 2023•11 min
In this episode, we discuss key gleanings from the earnings season including takeaways on bank earnings, inflation, and AI.
Jul 25, 2023•11 min•Season 1Ep. 105
This week, we discuss the slight softening trends from the big retailers that reported last week. We also discuss Tesla and AI and the Fed talk about more potential rate hikes. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Softening Trends 00:01:50 Inflation Still High 00:04:00 Tesla and AI 00:07:33 The State of the Supply Chains 00:08:30 Nuggets of Wisdom 00:09:12 Conclusion
May 23, 2023•10 min
In this episode, we discuss the key points from the Fed press conference last week, the incoming data on the state of the economy, and the banking crisis. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Pausing Soon? 00:01:08 Hot or Cold? 00:03:31 Troubled Regional Banks 00:05:57 What's Different This Time? 00:07:42 CRE Exposure 00:10:12 ChatGPT Crushing Business Models 00:11:22 The Oracle of Omaha 00:12:32 Conclusion...
May 09, 2023•13 min
In this episode, we discuss the recent developments in the banking industry with the demise of First Republic and some key takeaways from big tech earnings calls. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Softening Trends 00:01:23 The Impact of the End of First Republic 00:04:46 What will the Fed Do? 00:06:55 Price-Driven Growth 00:08:38 TakeAways from Tech Earnings 00:11:15 Conclusion
May 02, 2023•12 min
In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from US bank's Q1 2023 earnings and more. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Slowly Declining 00:02:18 What Will the Fed Do? 00:03:18 Banks are Stable For Now 00:04:42 Credit Metrics Look Good 00:06:23 On Semis and Pool Demand 00:08:20 Freight Recession 00:09:10 Tesla Slashing Prices 00:11:06 Big Week Ahead
Apr 25, 2023•12 min
In this episode marking the start to the new earnings season, we discuss how banks and the Fed are responding to the recent baking crisis, the state of the consumer Buffett's take on AI Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Banking Stress Calms Down 00:01:56 How Will the Fed React? 00:05:23 Is The Banking Crisis Over? 00:07:03 The Car Market 00:08:40 Buffett and AI 00:10:57 Conclusion
Apr 19, 2023•11 min
In this episode, we discuss our key takeaways from the Q4 2022 earnings calls. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 The Banking Crisis 00:02:55 Consumers Are Still Spending 00:04:22 The Era of AI 00:08:40 Earnings Season Begins Soon 00:10:11 Conclusion
Apr 04, 2023•11 min
In this episode, we discuss the distress in financial markets that started in banking, how the Fed is responding to it, and what C-suite execs are saying about it. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:05 Distress in the Markets 00:01:45 Too Soon To Tell 00:02:57 The Fed Responds 00:03:33 It’s Quarter End This Week 00:05:24 It’s the Liquidity Stupid 00:07:05 The Astonishing Speed of AI Evolution 00:09:12 Nuggets of Wisdom 00:10:42 Conclusion...
Mar 28, 2023•11 min
In this episode, we examine the developments in the banking world in the last week or so and the implications these have on financial markets and on the Fed rate hike.
Mar 21, 2023•10 min
In this episode, we analyze the happenings in the banking world last week that started with the fall of the Silicon Valley Bank. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 The Rapid Fall of SVB 00:02:14 The 3 Banks That Failed 00:05:12 Contagion Effects? 00:09:15 Goliath is Winning 00:12:26 Conclusion
Mar 14, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 96
In this episode, we discuss last week's statements by Fed governors, the still-strong consumer spending and the hype around AI. 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Waiting for Data 00:01:38 Consumer Spending Still Strong 00:02:10 Slowing Retail Comps 00:03:38 The State of the Energy and Materials Markets 00:05:26 Back to 1990s? 00:10:39 Conclusion
Mar 07, 2023•11 min•Season 1Ep. 95
In this episode we discuss the pesky inflation, the state of retail and takeaways from the Berkshire 2022 shareholder letter Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Pesky inflation 00:00:58 Pressured but Spending 00:02:05 Softening Labour Markets? 00:03:39 Takeaways from Retailers 00:05:51 Week ahead 00:09:59 Conclusion
Feb 28, 2023•10 min•Season 1Ep. 94
In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer, the impact of UID2 on advertising, and how things are going with ChatGPT. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:13 Consumer is Still Partying 00:01:31 Service Inflation Still Sticky 00:02:45 No Hurricane Yet 00:03:22 UID 2.0 00:05:44 ChatGPT Attracting Criticism 00:08:15 Back to Office at Amazon 00:09:27 Conclusion
Feb 21, 2023•10 min•Season 1Ep. 93
In this episode, we dissect the gleanings from the latest post-FOMC press conference and the takeaways from tech earnings.
Feb 07, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 92
In this episode, we discuss the resiliency of consumer spending, the sticky services inflation, and the era of AI.
Jan 31, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 91
In this episode, we discuss how companies are preparing for a mild recession, the developing decade of AI and the status of the reopening of China. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 A Mild Recession Ahead 00:02:12 Will the Fed Slow Down? 00:04:36 Pace of Decline in VC Investments Slows Down 00:05:32 The Decade of AI 00:09:38 Nearshoring and the Reopening of China 00:10:58 Conclusion
Jan 24, 2023•12 min•Season 1Ep. 90
In our first episode of the earnings season, we discuss our key takeaways from the big banks that reported including takes on credit quality, the possibility of a hurricane coming and the state of the consumer. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Big Banks Report 00:01:01 5% is the Place to Be 00:01:56 Consumer Dipping into Savings and Credit 00:03:05 No hurricane 00:04:04 Dollar Down 00:05:41 Search for Yield 00:06:59 The State of Semis and Auto 00:08:50 Conclusion...
Jan 18, 2023•9 min
In the first episode of the new year, we discuss what has changed since the holidays and we preview the Q4 2022 earnings season. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 A Cooling Down 00:01:55 Inflation Cooling in Europe 00:03:03 Inflation in Services 00:05:52 A Hunkering for Fries 00:06:49 The AI revolution 00:09:19 Weakening Data Center Demand 00:11:15 Earnings Season Preview 00:12:40 Conclusion
Jan 10, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 88
In this episode, we review the year 2022 through quotes from earnings calls and also track the incredible growth we have had at The Transcript. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 A Year of Worries 00:01:51 The Fed Behind the Curve 00:04:51 Inflation Peaked 00:06:41 The End of an Era 00:08:22 Looking into 2023 00:10:04 Incredible Growth at The Transcript
Dec 20, 2022•14 min•Season 1Ep. 87
In this episode, we discuss the signs of slow down in spending, how companies are prepping for a hurricane and the impact ChatGPT is having. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 There is a slowdown 00:02:28 Companies Prepping for a Hurricane 00:04:26 The 2% Trend 00:06:11 IT Budgets under Pressure 00:08:04 The ChatGPT Moment 00:11:07 Conclusion
Dec 13, 2022•12 min•Season 1Ep. 86
In this episode, we discuss the recent comments from the Fed on slowing down rate increases, the surprising strength in the industrial segments, and the impact of the Zero-covid policy in China. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:12 Slowing Down The Pace 00:01:12 Entrenched Inflation Psychology? 00:05:29 Strength in Industrial Customers 00:07:32 China's Zero Covid policy 00:09:46 Conclusion
Dec 06, 2022•10 min
In this episode, we host Sean Stannard-Stockton who is the president and chief investment officer of Ensemble Capital Management and is a regular reader of our newsletter. We discuss his takeaways from the latest Q3 22 earnings from companies in their portfolio including Mastercard, Starbucks, Ferrari, Home Depot, and Netflix.
Nov 30, 2022•50 min•Season 1Ep. 84
In this episode, we discuss the signals from freight companies on weakening demand, the FTX saga, and the Meta U-Turn Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Inflation Going Down? 00:03:09 The Crypto Crisis 00:07:54 The Meta U-Turn 00:09:36 Semis and the Energy Transition 00:10:06 Conclusion
Nov 15, 2022•10 min•Season 1Ep. 83
