Ep 400 | Lights, CAMera, Action!

[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the Toolshed, a podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues. [SPEAKER_01]: From the MLB draft, all the way to the show, the Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis, and in-depth discussion. [SPEAKER_01]: And now, here's your host, Eric Cross. [SPEAKER_02]: Welcome in to another episode of the toolshed podcast brought to you by Rotabauer. [SPEAKER_02]: This is episode four hundred.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for joining me. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm your host Eric Cross. [SPEAKER_02]: You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB and the show is at toolshed. [SPEAKER_02]: Pod got a great guest with me in the toolshed this episode. [SPEAKER_02]: He is a writer at fantasy pros and the creator of fscores also hosts the fantasy a-spall podcast. [SPEAKER_02]: You find him on Twitter at fantasy a-spall. [SPEAKER_02]: Mr. Tim Connect joins me. [SPEAKER_02]: Tim, thanks for joining me.

[SPEAKER_02]: But how are you doing? [SPEAKER_00]: Of course. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm doing great. [SPEAKER_00]: Nice three-day weekend here with Fourth of July. [SPEAKER_00]: And I never get three-day weekends because I'm in construction. [SPEAKER_00]: And I own the company. [SPEAKER_00]: So I always make my guys work. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm like, wow, wow, wow. [SPEAKER_00]: But fourth to July, probably not a good idea to be on roofs or upon buildings with fireworks.

[SPEAKER_00]: Don't want to accidentally get smashed by some fireworks that like explodes while you're working on a roof. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think probably a good call for me to take the day off, let everybody chill. [SPEAKER_00]: So three day weekend, first time in a long time, had fun, went to the beach. [SPEAKER_00]: And I am looking forward to next week because we've got a draft coming up. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm going to like next week is going to be crazy.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I look forward to next weekend. [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: It's always the draft's always fun. [SPEAKER_02]: It's always great to especially those of us that do like prospect rankings. [SPEAKER_02]: You get that fresh batch of new players to insert. [SPEAKER_02]: That's always fun trying to figure out where to put them among the guys that have already been there.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, that first prospect rankings update after the draft is always really really fun to kind of put together. [SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, that's coming up in. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but a week or now we have the draft in a week, and then we get the all-star break, take a little step back for a few days, but the world of prospects and dynasty never ends, and obviously never ends on this show. [SPEAKER_02]: But we got a lot of fun players to talk about today.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's got several kind of fun prospect promotions over the last several days. [SPEAKER_02]: Some intriguing young hitters on the rise right now, and it was some outfield prospect discussion, because I just recently updated [SPEAKER_02]: My prospect rankings and Tim recently was posting on Twitter or X about some of his outfield prospect rankings. [SPEAKER_02]: I've got a few interesting names here talk about that are pretty polarizing names. [SPEAKER_02]: So let's get right into it.

[SPEAKER_02]: But before we do the usual housekeeping, if you enjoy the podcast, please rate and review wherever you listen. [SPEAKER_02]: You can find all of my content either on Rotobal or over on my Patreon, which is toolshadowvanicy.com.

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[SPEAKER_02]: Our premium pass comes with a hundred percent money back guarantee. [SPEAKER_02]: Go to rodovoir.com slash radio and use the discount code toolshed at checkout. [SPEAKER_02]: All right. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's start with the Prospect promotions over the last week. [SPEAKER_02]: First one up here. [SPEAKER_02]: We got Colson Montgomery of the Chicago white socks.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, one of their top prospects for the last couple of years now was drafted in the first round back in twenty twenty one. [SPEAKER_02]: But you know, lots a little bit of the prospect shine here over the last year to had a young good year back in twenty twenty two and twenty three twenty twenty four only slash two fourteen three twenty nine three eighty one that really kind of let out a little bit of the air from the sales of the speak.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then this year so far in fifty five AAA games with slash in two eighteen two ninety eight four thirty five ten doubles eleven home runs nineteen walks to eighty two strikeouts for AAA Charlotte he's got an actually three hits this first couple games here I would the white socks but that he's a guy that I see a lot of varying opinions on varying rankings on so Tim where do you fall on close to Montgomery you think he's a bit impact player or you little more reserved like I am

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I'm more reserved. [SPEAKER_00]: I, you know, I had him probably a year and a half ago, or two years ago, I had him in the top fifty, sixty, whatever. [SPEAKER_00]: And I ended up moving him completely out of my, like, top one, fifty prospect rankings. [SPEAKER_00]: Just because I'm just like, okay, this guy, the hit tool is not all there. [SPEAKER_00]: Too many case. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's got really good EVs, right? [SPEAKER_00]: But he also has injuries.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't really know what to expect from him. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's five for eleven so far. [SPEAKER_00]: So people are going to be like, Oh, yeah, look how great Colson Montgomery is. [SPEAKER_00]: Like the non-prost. [SPEAKER_00]: People are going to be spending a lot of, we're just talking about how we have fab later. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a little bit of a little bit of a [SPEAKER_00]: probably not going to be.

[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone when he came up was like, Oh, this guy's going to be Cory Seeker. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, big lefty, you know, whatever, but I never really saw that. [SPEAKER_00]: My F scores kind of had him more in like a Carlos career type level and it kind of makes sense to with like all the injuries that he said is like Carlos career.

[SPEAKER_00]: where he's like, okay, he's gonna walk a little, maybe he'll strike out a little too much, maybe the hits will never really be there and the power will not really develop to what it could be. [SPEAKER_00]: Kind of like Carlos Crayer, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Like what's he cat that? [SPEAKER_00]: Twenty four, twenty five homers is like what he's hit, but when he first came up, everyone's like, oh, this guy's gonna be a thirty, thirty five homer, short stop, he's gonna be a stud.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think close to my gummery kind of falls in that Carlos Crayer type territory, obviously like he doesn't have the elite Carlos Crayer defense, but [SPEAKER_00]: you know, to fall back on. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that you could probably expect a long term. [SPEAKER_00]: He'll probably hit somewhere between like two thirty to two sixty and get like high teens to twenty five homers pretty consistently through his peak.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I've never been, you know, I'm in the highest on Montgomery and many people that have followed my work both written and on here probably know that at this point. [SPEAKER_02]: I've never thought he was like a bad prospect, but yeah, I just never saw like the super high impact guy. [SPEAKER_02]: that I think somebody will thought he could be.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's a solid blend of hit and power, you know, the yet eighty four percent zone around seventy two percent overall, contact rates in AAA this year. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, in the power is going to take down a little bit, maybe some of the injuries have played a role in that, but it's good, but not great power. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I'm kind of there with you. [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's, you know, a twenty homer guy, give or take in two, fifty or so something like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: And you should get plenty of run with the white such offices. [SPEAKER_02]: They don't only have a lot of other options to take a spot unless he absolutely [SPEAKER_02]: You know, bombs in the majors, you know, those after a pretty solid start, but yeah, I think this, you know, maybe he gets, you know, down the road when he gets settled in, maybe he's like a back end top two hundred fantasy guy.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't really see him rising above like being like a mid pack middle infield. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, type guy for your fantasy teams. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's solid. [SPEAKER_02]: But since he's a, you know, a short stop that doesn't provide really any speed and really never will. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he had eight deals last year. [SPEAKER_02]: Don't really see that, you know, being in the case again. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he had two deals this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Land Triple L and fifty five games. [SPEAKER_02]: He's more like a guy. [SPEAKER_02]: Give you a three four. [SPEAKER_02]: This is a rogue steal here and there. [SPEAKER_02]: Never really showed that willingness to run. [SPEAKER_02]: He's not really a fast guy either. [SPEAKER_02]: More that, you know, big body short stop, like you mentioned. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm not super high in him. [SPEAKER_02]: He's around. [SPEAKER_02]: See, where do I have him?

[SPEAKER_02]: Overall right now. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's see here. [SPEAKER_02]: I have Montgomery. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, one fifty seven. [SPEAKER_02]: I knew he was around one fifty. [SPEAKER_02]: We're selling. [SPEAKER_02]: He's in a similar range for like middle and fielders. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's see. [SPEAKER_02]: He was in there. [SPEAKER_02]: How you Lee with Detroit is in that range for me.

[SPEAKER_02]: Tommy Troy, Sam Antonachi, and guys like that, you know, Yairo Pradea, Adio Omrodos down there now too. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, they gave you ice fine, but I'm just not like super intrigued by him at all. [SPEAKER_02]: Next guy here, though, Colby Thomas, I've had him top a hundred for a bit now.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he's another guy that I think people are pretty split on just given some of the, you know, the hit tool concerns that people might have, but [SPEAKER_02]: This guy's an extra base hit machine. [SPEAKER_02]: He led the minor leagues last year with eighty extra base hits, forty four doubles, five triples, thirty one dingers, and also at fifteen steels, two seventy seven, three, forty two, five, sixty three, slash line.

[SPEAKER_02]: and a hundred and thirty two games between double a and triple a this year two ninety seven three sixty five five forty two seventeen home runs twenty one doubles again he's pretty high up there next to base hits I'm not sure if you still leading that are not but he was a top five last time I looked also seven steals here uh... and only one one one for ten this first four games with the athletics but uh... definitely a fun little power speed blend there for Kobe Thomas what do you thoughts on him

[SPEAKER_00]: I've been like the big Colby Thomas guy for a while. [SPEAKER_00]: I talked a lot about Colby Thomas last year on prospect one. [SPEAKER_00]: I've got him top sixty. [SPEAKER_00]: I've got him at fifty seven right now. [SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, there's strikeout concerns. [SPEAKER_00]: And he has like, if you're just looking at profile, you're looking at the back of the baseball card stats, you might say, oh, Colson Montgomery and Colby Thomas have some of the same problems.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like they've got some of the same good things. [SPEAKER_00]: And they've got some of the same problems. [SPEAKER_00]: They both have like one fifteen max EVs, whatever, whatever. [SPEAKER_00]: But the difference is Colby Thomas is a lot more consistent with this power.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he's actually getting into his power, a lot more consistent, consistently, then Colson Montgomery, one-of-five, ninety-a-th-e-v, and one of the things that I love about Colby Thomas is he is a free swinger. [SPEAKER_00]: He is so aggressive in zone, and he's a free swinger in a good way, right? [SPEAKER_00]: He's not, like, he'll chase, but he's not chasing overly aggressively, but in zone, he's got a seventy-five versus swing rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, a seventy-five percent zone swing rate with an eighty-five percent zone contact rate when you're hitting the ball one of five ninety percentile with a one fifteen point nine max e.v. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that'll play. [SPEAKER_00]: He barreled and the minor is ten point five percent of the time. [SPEAKER_00]: So, this is a guy who really gets into it and he has good angles. [SPEAKER_00]: Like Colson Montgomery, if you look at his launch, he'll distribution.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's all over the place. [SPEAKER_00]: It's from like negative whatever. [SPEAKER_00]: Like it's just like across the board. [SPEAKER_00]: There's like no consistency whatsoever. [SPEAKER_00]: Colby Thomas is constantly hitting the ball. [SPEAKER_00]: Like if you look at a bar graph of his launch angles, he's consistently hitting the ball between like five to twenty five degrees like a lot. [SPEAKER_00]: So that's exactly where you want him to hit.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why he has so many extra base hits, forty extra base hits before the call up. [SPEAKER_00]: Last year he led the miners and extra base hits and he was doing it again this year before the call up. [SPEAKER_00]: So [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm in on Kobe Thomas. [SPEAKER_00]: There could be some volatility here. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a high risk profile with the case, but I think he's going to get into it. [SPEAKER_00]: My comfort him is kind of like an adolescent Garcia type.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's what you hope for when you're buying him is like, OK, I know I might not get the most consistent guy. [SPEAKER_00]: There might be a lot of case or might be like some batting average bad weeks or whatever, but as long as he's going to hit a bunch of bombs and seal some bags while he's at it, then like that's what you're you're probably getting with Kobe Thomas, especially in that ballpark. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, I like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, at least Compa could bet, yeah, because, you know, at least is fun, but as we, anyone that's roster out of the lazy, you know, he can be kind of going those cold stretches and be kind of maddening to roster at times. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think, Thomas, I don't think he's a bit like a super high batting average source.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, you see that two ninety seven last year, I know, this year's going to be two seventy seven last year, two eighty six year before that. [SPEAKER_02]: He's hit for a good average of what the miners, [SPEAKER_02]: I don't see him being like a two eighty plus guy. [SPEAKER_02]: I think more like two fifty to sixty would be the sweet spot there, but you know, it's above average power. [SPEAKER_02]: But you mentioned, you know, he gets to it in games through the angles.

[SPEAKER_02]: He gets the ball at. [SPEAKER_02]: He's never going to be one of those guys that wows you on the savant page. [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, he had a EV right around ninety miles an hour, forty one and a half percent heart hit rate, ten percent barrel rate. [SPEAKER_02]: So it's above average power and then probably give you a, and I think it'll be guys like, you know, low to mid teen steels as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're getting, you know, potential for like twenty twenty five home runs, that would have just deal like twenty plus ten plus, you know, you can live with it at two fifty average. [SPEAKER_02]: And I think the context goes with there where [SPEAKER_02]: He won't like crater down to be like two-ten. [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe he will, but I'm not like super worried about that. [SPEAKER_02]: So, in terms of between Thomas and Montgomery, long term, I definitely prefer Thomas.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even short term, I would go Thomas though. [SPEAKER_02]: You make case for Montgomery and the short term is because I think there's a clear bracket that every day of playing time for the rest of this season for Montgomery as opposed to Thomas, but long term, I'm definitely more of a [SPEAKER_02]: Kobe Thomas guy, then a course of Montgomery guy. [SPEAKER_02]: Next one here, one more hitter and one more pitcher and I got promoted this week.

[SPEAKER_02]: Going Yankele for Nandez with the Colorado Rockies. [SPEAKER_02]: I got that some called, you know, kind of got baby yord on back in the day. [SPEAKER_02]: I was never, that's why I hate, you know, Thompson general. [SPEAKER_02]: Especially very young prospects like that when he was like eight team. [SPEAKER_02]: Like, oh, he's the next yord on. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, I was calm down here.

[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, the power is definitely solid with with for Nandez and he's definitely [SPEAKER_02]: bit of a free swing and earn his own right. [SPEAKER_02]: This year, two, eighty, four, three, forty, seven, five, two slash line would triple a Albuquerque in sixty four games, fourteen doubles, thirteen home runs. [SPEAKER_02]: It hasn't stolen a bag of the last couple years, so I had one last year, but this is definitely, I got it.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll need the bat to be there for him to be, you know, a [SPEAKER_02]: impactful fantasy contributor, but you know, I definitely think it could. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, and it helps that, obviously, he's got, you know, Colorado course field, the call home here for the foreseeable future. [SPEAKER_02]: So this could be a guy that, you know, could become a pretty solid offensive outfielder. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, the power wasn't like great this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: It definitely has ticked down. [SPEAKER_02]: It's eighty-eight mile an hour average EV, thirty-seven percent hard hit rate, and you know, barely a little under nine percent. [SPEAKER_02]: It had been higher in previous years, but still a solid power bat. [SPEAKER_02]: Conduct skills are decent enough, seventy-four percent overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not too much with in the profile as well, and it's a better job of [SPEAKER_02]: You know, walking, you know, like higher walk rate this year, cut the K rate as well. [SPEAKER_02]: So come on, somebody's like small gains in terms of approach and contact this year, which are definitely encouraging. [SPEAKER_02]: So I don't have him top a hundred right now, but he's in like that one twenty five to one fifty range for me. [SPEAKER_02]: Where are you at on Yankele Fernandez, Tim?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've right in like the one fifty to one seventy five range. [SPEAKER_00]: He did not make my last top one hundred fifty ranking update though he has been on the list over the last couple of years. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously like it's it's kind of funny because he's only twenty two years old but he's been around for a minute so they've been like prospect fatigue on him already even though he's only twenty two and if you are in the stock market of prospecting.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had three home runs in the previous four games before he got called up. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's hot if you believe in hot. [SPEAKER_00]: He's hot with a run in RBI today and he's going to be in Colorado. [SPEAKER_00]: So you could try to pick him up see if he catches steam for a couple of weeks. [SPEAKER_00]: And if you don't really believe in him, at least hopefully you get lucky. [SPEAKER_00]: He's hot and you can resell it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But long-term with Yokeel, at least for now, his splits. [SPEAKER_00]: He destroys rightes. [SPEAKER_00]: And he's terrible against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you are in a daily league, this is the league, type of league that I'd be picking up Bianchi Ellen, any daily league and then just put him against righties. [SPEAKER_00]: He's a lefty outfield hitter and against righties this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's your play, three, ten, three, seventy, nine, five, sixty, seven slash with eleven of his thirteen bombs. [SPEAKER_00]: against lefties, he only hit two, twenty, two, two, sixty, three, three, forty, seven. [SPEAKER_00]: So significantly worse, like two hundred, two hundred plus slug difference against lefties, then against righties.

[SPEAKER_00]: So while, you know, he has a, you know, he has a, you know, lawn chagel and EV distribution that is a little more consistent than close to Montgomery. [SPEAKER_00]: It is not quite Colby Thomas. [SPEAKER_00]: So I'd probably picking both of those guys up before Yankele, but Yankele is a little under the, under the radar here.

[SPEAKER_00]: because he was hot you might get a little you might be able to get a little sizzle on some value with here with him short term and longer term daily leagues if you can just play him against varieties and you have the bench spots for that then like that's that's a good play I think for for deeper leagues where you have enough bench spots that you can play matchups so how do you have long term for dynasty how do you have these three guys ranked for nanda is Montgomery and Thomas

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, Thomas. [SPEAKER_00]: I've got Montgomery for Nandis, like basically like back to back in my rankings right now. [SPEAKER_00]: I go Montgomery just because I see him as a more steady option. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to get a lot more playing time, long term. [SPEAKER_00]: He's got a good glove, so he'll play a lot where a yakeel, like I said, I think there's definitely like Platonius gear. [SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, [SPEAKER_00]: If I'm the Rockies, I would put you in them.

[SPEAKER_00]: They've got so many outfuelers in that org. [SPEAKER_00]: So to me, that's like future platoon DH type or something like that. [SPEAKER_00]: So, I mean, these are the last two. [SPEAKER_00]: So like, definitely, that's the order I'm going is Thomas Montgomery, Yacchio. [SPEAKER_02]: I definitely go Thomas first and I also have Montgomery and Fernandez close right now. [SPEAKER_02]: I have Fernandez about ten spots higher, but I can make a case going either way with those two.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't want to have a strong lean either way there. [SPEAKER_02]: One more here over to the pitching side and Yankees have had a lot of notable rises on the pitching side this year. [SPEAKER_02]: Usually they, you know, they have a lot of guys on the rise on the hitting side for in terms of prospects, but this year definitely been the pitching side. [SPEAKER_02]: And the one that's kind of popped off more recently is Cam Schlittler, who will get his major league debut.

[SPEAKER_02]: I believe it's Tuesday who we make in this debut.

[SPEAKER_02]: a seventh rounder in twenty twenty two out of northeastern so a northeast guy uh... that that's a non-bossed Massachusetts he was having a really good year uh... down in in the upper miners here between double a and triple a he had seventy six and two thirds innings with a two eighty two e-r-a you know fifth of two five two except a two six times those are right in line with that e-r-a [SPEAKER_02]: Now, whip a little bit higher, one, two, one, but not terrible.

[SPEAKER_02]: Eight point four percent walker eight and a thirty one, a point nine percent key rate. [SPEAKER_02]: He had really been rolling. [SPEAKER_02]: The last outing he had triple A before he had called up a lot of six earned. [SPEAKER_02]: And I believe it was like two and a third, but before that, he'd earray around one in this pb is like five or six stars. [SPEAKER_02]: So definitely was pitching very, very well. [SPEAKER_02]: So that one blow up in the roads and pitching well.

[SPEAKER_02]: the entire season and really deep arsenal, a two potential above average to plus pitches, fastball, good sweepers, well, also mixed in, you know, as harder slider, curveball and the change up as well. [SPEAKER_02]: And the really the bread and butter is that fastball and sweeper and solid command and control as well. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I'm not like wild by Schlittler, but, you know, I think this definitely a major league starter for sure, like that SP four type of guy.

[SPEAKER_02]: You live at older two, so I think you can get them [SPEAKER_02]: you know, die actually late for a pretty reasonable price tag because he's, you know, the older prospect and you know, wasn't really super highly ranked up until recently. [SPEAKER_02]: He's still like a top hundred guy for many people, but I think there's some sticky die to be had here.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not sure, you know, how much of an impact we see from a little or this season and who knows along he's up, yeah, he's obviously dealing with some injury issues with Clark Schmidt now needing Tommy Jones surgery as well. [SPEAKER_02]: So they're kind of scrambling, so maybe he does get some run. [SPEAKER_02]: here, but Tim, what do you thoughts on Kim Schlittler both for this year and long term? [SPEAKER_00]: I like it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Last ranking update he ended up like right outside of my top one, fifty. [SPEAKER_00]: I was trying to like push pictures down a little bit and hit her is up a little more just because of the whole pitching injury thing and it's just like, oh, he just gets so sick of you. [SPEAKER_00]: You have so many project pictures I get hurt.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like I started moving some of my pictures down a little bit from where I normally had them, but the repertoire is really good, unfortunate name if you're a podcaster because you have to like watch it every single time.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're like am I going to say something bad here or am I going to like, or if you're a jokester like doc and I are on our podcast a little bit of a prankster, you can make some mustache jokes from our German buddy, but anyway, [SPEAKER_00]: Cash, Hitler, just really good stuff, really fun stuff too. [SPEAKER_00]: But it's just a matter of like, is it going to be too hitable? [SPEAKER_00]: Because all this stuff is really fast.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like, is there enough of a difference here that it's not going to be hitable? [SPEAKER_00]: Because he does have some issues of like getting barrel up pretty good. [SPEAKER_00]: But his foreseamer has a twenty one percent swing strike rate on it, which isn't saying. [SPEAKER_00]: And he can top out at ninety nine on that pitch. [SPEAKER_00]: So like I grade it roughly is like a sixty sixty five fastball just because it doesn't have a lot of IVB like the break on it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's it's only got sixteen inches of rise. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's like for ninety nine. [SPEAKER_00]: It's like yeah, that's okay, right? [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a lot of movement. [SPEAKER_00]: But for whatever reason, twenty one percent swing strike rate. [SPEAKER_00]: So guys are still missing at it. [SPEAKER_00]: Is he has good command of it because he throws it for strikes almost sixty two percent of the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he's very very very good command of that poor seemer, which is how he's getting those swings and misses on it. [SPEAKER_00]: Slider, you're gonna love a slider that's playing in the nineties. [SPEAKER_00]: Like Eno always talks about the break even of a slider being around eighty five miles an hour. [SPEAKER_00]: It's like a good slider if it's if it's eighty five, it's gonna be a good slider. [SPEAKER_00]: This guy's throwing a slider like ninety one ninety two miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, so I think he said me a good slider. [SPEAKER_00]: Like you can almost classify that as a cutter because it's so hard. [SPEAKER_00]: And then he's also got the sweeper on top of it. [SPEAKER_00]: And he's throwing the sweeper even eighty seven eighty eight miles an hour. [SPEAKER_00]: So these are all great pitches. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just like, is he going to avoid bad contact?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to be able to have something else to like the curve ball or the change of work well enough in that arsenal? [SPEAKER_00]: Because the curve ball and the change up are kind of like me. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's like, okay, if he can get those to work against fastball sweeper slider. [SPEAKER_00]: So that he has something that breaks the other way or moves in a different way.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he could be really good, but if he can't figure that out, then that's going to probably be like home run issues. [SPEAKER_00]: Once he gets out, especially in Yankee Stadium. [SPEAKER_00]: But if it makes you feel good, he has no split concerns. [SPEAKER_00]: And my buddy, John Anderson, on his thing, he has Sierra for minor leagueers. [SPEAKER_00]: And his J-A-E-R-A, which is Sierra, basically, is a two, forty-seven, first-liter.

[SPEAKER_00]: So two, forty-seven Sierra is going to play all day. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, absolutely. [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I said, all the, you know, expected ERA metrics, like I mentioned the fit back step, you know, everything is pretty rushed right in line with what he's doing. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I don't think there's a lot of, you know, flukiness in the season this year. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, just another really good breakout arm this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: For the near Yankees and as I was putting up my Yankee Prospect Rankings and you got the two bats at the top of Lumbard and Spencer Jones, but that's a massive, you know, cluster of arms. [SPEAKER_02]: You got Schlittler, you got Colossal Grange, you got Bryce Cunningham, Elmer Rodriguez, Cruz. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, those are really the four and you got Hampton who's hurt and Henry Lillana who's hurt as well, but then has as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: But those first four are mentioned, I kind of like the four that are really taking a step forward. [SPEAKER_02]: And they're all in my top two hundred now, all between one forty and two hundred and one ninety, actually. [SPEAKER_02]: And I have, or at one eighty two, in my July update. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, definitely, I think there's a solid, measly arm there, but not like an, you know, impact guy, but definitely someone I think could be a fantasy viable arm for sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's move over to some young hitters on the rise right now and we'll start with Kim Smith. [SPEAKER_02]: Now, who made a little bit of a stance change recently, and I want to, you know, pull up a tweet here from Mr. Chris Kleg, who detailed it a couple of days ago, that mid-May was when Smith made the change. [SPEAKER_02]: He says, Kim Smith made a change in mid-May, and his thrive stance is now more open, and he's deeper in the box.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's on the ball travel and his intercept point is two point five inches closer to home plates. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, since then, you see in the EV jump from eighty five point seven to ninety one point six, our hit rates gone up thirteen percent to now up to over fifty percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, more zone contact, more overall contact, so just a lot of, you know, good stuff there for Kim Smith, and he's looking at, you know, the surface stats still might underwhelm a little bit, you know, seven homerons, four steals, but he's now getting two, eighty six with a three, fifty one, OBP, and that sluggs on the rise to up to four, thirty five. [SPEAKER_02]: hit over three hundred and both may and June and so far in July.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it's just been three really good months here of production for Kim Smith and so many twenty two years old and didn't have a lot of time in the minor leagues too. [SPEAKER_02]: So I think Kim Smith has still a good buy right now in dinosaur leagues. [SPEAKER_02]: I think you could see him really get into that top hundred overall dynasty ranking discussion pretty soon here. [SPEAKER_02]: This continues probably by end of the season.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I'm definitely [SPEAKER_02]: You know, looking to buy Kim Smith right now and then definitely believing in what happened because it was a tangible change as it was pointed out by Chris Clegan that tweet a few days ago. [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm buying are you buying as well, Tim? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I am. [SPEAKER_00]: So I actually noticed he took a few days off when he did the swing change too. [SPEAKER_00]: There's like a couple games he didn't play.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so like June eighth was the day that he like came back and started playing and that covers like the last twenty five games more or less. [SPEAKER_00]: But three, sixty six, four, seven, five, seventy, four, slash with twelve extra base hits during that span. [SPEAKER_00]: with four home runs. [SPEAKER_00]: Twelve extra base hits, twenty five games come on as an extra base hit every other game is excellent.

[SPEAKER_00]: One of the things to that I've noticed since he has made this change is he's been also more aggressive in the zone. [SPEAKER_00]: So his zone swing rate since this time is up at seventy three seventy four percent whereas before he was down like sixty six percent. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's being more aggressive in the zone with this swing change on top of it. [SPEAKER_00]: Probably that has to do with confidence too, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Like he changes swing.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's working. [SPEAKER_00]: He's hitting a bunch of extra base hits. [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to get more confident and then you're going to get more happy with the pitches that you're seeing and you're going to be a little more confident with some of those pitches coming in the zone. [SPEAKER_00]: So I agree with you. [SPEAKER_00]: This is a buy right now. [SPEAKER_00]: I can't believe that there's actually a lot more room for power here.

[SPEAKER_00]: He still is only barreling like seven percent of the time. [SPEAKER_00]: He could barrel a lot more. [SPEAKER_00]: He's in Houston, where you've got the Crawford boxes. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, there's still so much power potential here. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, even if you buy now, you're not buying high. [SPEAKER_00]: You're buying on all, it's still, this roller coaster is still like halfway up the slope. [SPEAKER_00]: It's like not at the top yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's still, it's still halfway up. [SPEAKER_00]: You're like, okay, when is this roller coaster going to drop? [SPEAKER_00]: You still've got a lot of way up. [SPEAKER_00]: So I'd say buy now if you can't. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I couldn't agree with that more, I mean, except the value definitely is higher now than it was, like a month ago. [SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I think that was like the peak low point of his going to dynasty value at least right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, I think it could still go up even more. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's definitely trending up right now. [SPEAKER_02]: And he's one of just a few guys that have both a sprint speed and, you know, bat speed, percentile of eighty-fifth percentile or higher. [SPEAKER_02]: A seventh percentile bat speed, ninety-second percentile sprint speed. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's kind of like the stinky part of his game where he's, he's a good athlete too.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he hits the ball hard and everyone knows him for his bat, but I think there's a potential for, I don't think he's a big a twenty plus seal guy, but maybe he's, you know, gives you some double-digit steel years as well. [SPEAKER_02]: And I think you could be twenty five plus home runs, you know, with a solid average and LBP. [SPEAKER_02]: As well, I mean, the approach is pretty solid at the plate and it's getting there.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, the key rate and walkway don't look overly great right now. [SPEAKER_02]: It's, you know, they're not terrible either right around twenty seven percent k eight percent walk, but definitely both trending in the right direction. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, he, it's all pitched as well. [SPEAKER_02]: There's not like one pitch. [SPEAKER_02]: He has a big issue with right now either. [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe a little bit with breaking balls, but nothing too concerning.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I'm definitely [SPEAKER_02]: You know, buying in here because they have a got twenty five, ten type of guy hitting two, seventy, two, eighty, you know, three, fifty, three, sixty, OBP. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think this could be a couple hundred guy pretty darn soon. [SPEAKER_02]: And it's definitely still some time to buy on Kim Smith. [SPEAKER_02]: I'll keep it right in the nationally west with the always fun, always polarizing Joe Adele.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're still only twenty six years old.

[SPEAKER_02]: It feels like Joe Adele should be like pushing thirty at this point, but still twenty six years old, you know, started to, you know, giving some value, you know, to fantasy managers last year, you know, the second half of the season, you know, overall hit to a seven, but you had twenty home runs, fifteen steals, had a bit of a second half in the first half, and then this year is not really running as much only three steals, but nineteen home runs in two hundred and ninety plate appearances, two forty eight, three twenty three, five hundred slash line,

[SPEAKER_02]: Just recently had a fifteen game hitting streak, which I never thought I would say about Joe Adele. [SPEAKER_02]: So where are you at on Joe Adele here, Tim? [SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, one of the more fun players in the game, but really maddening as well. [SPEAKER_02]: Where are you at on him right now? [SPEAKER_02]: Are you believing in this finally? [SPEAKER_02]: Or are you just, have you been burned too many times to believe? [SPEAKER_00]: No, maddening is right.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was in on him so long ago and it's just like I don't have him anywhere now. [SPEAKER_00]: I've been so I was so in on him like years ago and now it's like okay, I'm done and then here it is finally. [SPEAKER_00]: But that's just what happens. [SPEAKER_00]: That's part of the game. [SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes you've got to wait and you've got to wait and then it's just like never give up. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the guy still twenty six.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is supposed to be his peak, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And like these guys are supposed to peak. [SPEAKER_00]: The hitters are supposed to be twenty six twenty seven twenty eight. [SPEAKER_00]: So we're seeing it right now from him. [SPEAKER_00]: I buy what he's doing, what he's become. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the underlying metrics fully support everything that he's doing right now. [SPEAKER_00]: So I buy that, but am I going to buy him and dynasty?

[SPEAKER_00]: No, I think that this is his peak. [SPEAKER_00]: I think what he's doing right now is literally his peak. [SPEAKER_00]: Since June first, he's hitting three, four, three, seventy, eight, six, fifty, two, the seven percent walk rate, twenty, two percent carry, fifteen extra bases with twelve of them being bombs. [SPEAKER_00]: As you're going to put up another month like that. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of people when they're making trays, they're going to search last thirty. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that if you want it to, if you have, if you struck it rich on Joe Dell, you got them early, you got them really cheap in your league, and you can sell him for a really good long-term asset.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think now is the time to do it because I think that you're selling at the peak, like you're selling at the top of this performance, because I don't think it's going to get better from here. [SPEAKER_00]: Can it be the same? [SPEAKER_00]: Can he keep doing this for another couple of years? [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, could we have like a Chris Davis or hastal layer type guy for the next couple of years? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think so.

[SPEAKER_00]: But like am I going to buy him getting better than this? [SPEAKER_00]: No. [SPEAKER_00]: I think this is this is the best you're going to get. [SPEAKER_00]: So you might as well sell like can't. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's kind of what I wrote recently. [SPEAKER_02]: That's, you know, I'm believing in what we're seeing, but is there that next level? [SPEAKER_02]: That's the part where, yeah, I'm not sure about that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've like I can, Joe, don't be an annual, top one hundred guy. [SPEAKER_02]: You'll maybe you get asked some years raised up on a hundred or you know, top one fifty something like that, but can you be consistent enough? [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's made some gains, you know, in the contact and strike out rates. [SPEAKER_02]: His zone is now up to eighty one percent zone contact overall contact a little over seventy one percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: Those are still below average marks, but you know, this is a guy that was, you know, twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty, three was like around seventy, the seventy, two percent zone and like sixty, four, sixty, six percent overall. [SPEAKER_02]: So that's definitely much improved there. [SPEAKER_02]: And those were not going to get it done. [SPEAKER_02]: And we saw that with how, you know, inconsistent as production was.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now these are having a little more consistent, you know, maybe even clerks with forty homeruns this year. [SPEAKER_02]: He also hits the ball at ideal angles. [SPEAKER_02]: He's a nineteen point nine percent pull air rates, you know, X slug is actually even higher. [SPEAKER_02]: He's five eighty five X slug and you know, trimming that key rate from being in the upper thirties to even forty percent down to twenty three point two.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think you can see like a like a two forty thirty thirty five home run type of guy. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, the race alert is actually a really good. [SPEAKER_02]: The name dimension is this kind of a salaire was for a few years, but [SPEAKER_02]: You know with with a del though he's one where I'm okay selling or holding honestly because [SPEAKER_02]: If you want to sell them now, because he's hot and he's a hot name, then yeah, I'm not opposed to that.

[SPEAKER_02]: But if you also have them, and you probably either A acquired them way back for when he was, you know, had a lot of shine and you don't want to give up on them, which I get. [SPEAKER_02]: And then, or the other way, you bought low on them, so now you're like, all right, this has been, you know, a positive ROI so far, and you want to keep writing it out. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm fine with that too, so I can, I can see, you know, going multiple avenues here.

[SPEAKER_02]: I would Joe Adele, but here's a fun one for you. [SPEAKER_02]: Would you trade Joe Adele for Jack Cagleon in a dinosaur league? [SPEAKER_02]: I think I would prefer Cag's long term, but Cag says, obviously, the higher chase rates, but also mammoth power that's maybe one of the five best power headers in the game potential.

[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I see some similarities here where it could be, maybe Jack's a lower average guy, even though it's contact sales have been decent, it's just a high chase rate, but he could be one of those polarizing guys too.

[SPEAKER_02]: That definitely is a potential outcome for Jack, but [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I actually that trade being made in the fantasy league right now, you know, Adele for for Jack maybe someone's not fully believing in Jack and you know, where did with that high chase right? [SPEAKER_02]: He had in college and the miners. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I can see that deal being made. [SPEAKER_02]: That's a pretty fun one, but yeah, Joe Adele. [SPEAKER_02]: I don't have any shares either of Joe Adele.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe I'll be able to see if I can get one, but he's not one where I'm like rushing out to get, but it's just fun to see him, you know, hitting hitting bombs again, like we all thought he could. [SPEAKER_02]: Next one here, not quite as flashy, but definitely producing very well right now, and that's Michael Bush. [SPEAKER_02]: In twenty seven years old, you know, he didn't debut to his twenty five, because of the Dodgers, but fussies got into the cubs, you know, had a good year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Last year, twenty one bombs, two forty eight, three thirty five, four forty slash, you know, seventy three runs pretty solid a year, nothing spectacular. [SPEAKER_02]: But this year up to eighteen home runs, he's been a little home on barrage.

[SPEAKER_02]: lately had a three homer game and then a home run the very next day, so kind of a handful of bombs the last few days, eighteen homeruns with a two ninety three three seventy seven five sixty two slash line this year, you know, out of you know, all those first base breakouts earlier in the year, you know, the

[SPEAKER_02]: So it was strong torque, you know, a lot of them have kind of fizzled out a little bit in some degree, you know, Miranda hasn't, but Michael Bush has been just really steady. [SPEAKER_02]: The entire season, you know, he's had the best quality of contact metrics of his career, fifteen percent barrel, we're in a forty-seven percent heart hit rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's trimmed the K rate by about six percent from twenty eight point six to twenty two point seven, you know, more zone contact up eighty four percent there, seventy six percent overall, both those are above average. [SPEAKER_02]: Now, he's a better than league average chased right guy too. [SPEAKER_02]: So right now, he's showing up above average contact above average power. [SPEAKER_02]: And another guy that has higher pull air rate at twenty two point four percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, he kind of gets overlooked, but you know, they're all the other big batch. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, obviously Tucker's beasting out, PCA's beasting out, you know, C. S. Suzuki's hitting bombs there, but Bush has been really settled, you know, steady good this year. [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm buying it. [SPEAKER_02]: He's only twenty seven years old. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, hitting in a good lineup and a good park.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think you could see Bush being, you know, a top ten fantasy first place when, you know, for the next, you know, half decade or so. [SPEAKER_02]: What do you thoughts here on Michael Bush, Tim? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I buy like tune extend what he's doing. [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's definitely overperforming even the underlying metrics though.

[SPEAKER_00]: Since June first, three, fifty, six, four, twenty, seven, thirty, three slash with eleven bombs and fifteen extra base hits. [SPEAKER_00]: So, [SPEAKER_00]: Usually when I see that, I'm like, okay, most of the majority of the attributes it's our home runs, you know that the guy is probably on one, uh, seventeen point five percent barrel rate, thirty three point three, home run to fly ball rate over this time.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the thing is, like, he's still hitting the ball really well. [SPEAKER_00]: He has a ninety point two percent zone contact rate over this time. [SPEAKER_00]: uh, seventy percent zone swing. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's performing really well. [SPEAKER_00]: I just think that he's still in a little over his head. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you didn't believe in what Michael Bush is doing and you don't think that he's this good.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think just like Joe Dell, I think this is the time to sell even though I think he's still good. [SPEAKER_00]: Like he's definitely better than he was last year. [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if he's [SPEAKER_00]: this good. [SPEAKER_00]: You know what I mean? [SPEAKER_00]: Like, I think he's a solid player in a two eighty. [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's probably going to sell in more like a twenty five home run guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then what he's pacing now, which is, you know, low thirties or whatever. [SPEAKER_00]: So I just think that like when you put him against like a Josh nail, there's like a lot of these guys that are kind of like very similar. [SPEAKER_00]: ultimately on what they can do like Josh Nailer, Michael Bush, now you've got a Rhonda doing like the same, Rhonda and Bush are like near images of each other at separate leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's like you've got all these guys that are kind of similar. [SPEAKER_00]: So I just think that like if you have the opportunity to sell high and someone thinks that Bush is a thirty five home or guy or something now, then sell. [SPEAKER_00]: But if not, then just hold because I do believe that what he's going to, I believe he's good. [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know [SPEAKER_00]: You know, if he's, I don't think he's a superstar.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think he's a good player, right? [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: That's fair. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's a stud either.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've always been, you know, Michael Bush guy didn't back to his prospect is coming up through the Dodgers org, but you know, even I think, you know, more of a, and I think I'm one of the higher ones around on Michael Bush, but you know, I'm not saying he's, I don't think he's a big a top five for space remains like that, but I think back in top ten, you know,

[SPEAKER_02]: And they'd be glad that I would be okay with him as my, you know, starting first basement and I would like love him as like my corner in filter type thing, but yeah, definitely, you know, mashing right now. [SPEAKER_02]: So good to see him finally get, you know, get going here and be the guy that kind of thought he could be. [SPEAKER_02]: Last name here for the kind of rising young hitter part of this show. [SPEAKER_02]: Evan Carter finally backed doing Evan Carter type things.

[SPEAKER_02]: Two eighty three three seventy two four thirty four slash line this year. [SPEAKER_02]: Four homeruns and eleven steals in a hundred and twenty one plate appearances and obviously took the you know major league store you know by storm late in twenty twenty three with Texas run to the world series and was shining on the brightest stage the last year. [SPEAKER_02]: Limited to a hundred and sixty-two play appearances had the back issues wasn't good when he was out there.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so kind of all that helium and shine on the profile kind of got told as quickly as it rose last year given all the issues both on and off the field for Carter. [SPEAKER_02]: But back to being a fun player, you know, kind of some interesting profile here, Tim. [SPEAKER_02]: But where do you land on Evan Carter? [SPEAKER_02]: So only twenty-two years old, you know, fun profile, but an interesting one. [SPEAKER_02]: Where do you kind of land on Carter?

[SPEAKER_00]: I think it depends on the type of league you're in. [SPEAKER_00]: So he came back on June third from his injury and since then he said three twenty nine four seventeen five oh seven. [SPEAKER_00]: But that's also been boosted by a three sixty two babbit during that time span. [SPEAKER_00]: But he also has three home runs and eight steals during that time span five of those steals were in the last three games.

[SPEAKER_00]: And during this entire time span, do you know how many abatses had against lefties? [SPEAKER_00]: Probably not a lot. [SPEAKER_00]: Eight abats against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're in a weekly league, I want nothing to do with Evan Carter because you're gonna lose two games a weekend. [SPEAKER_00]: if you're in like a weekly road to a league or something like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you're in a daily league and you're playing points or you're playing OPP, sure, I'll take Evan Carter against Rides all day and an OPP or points league, but it's just so league dependent with Evan Carter. [SPEAKER_00]: Whether if I want him or if I don't want him weekly league, I don't want to touch it at all because he's just not gonna play against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: It's an accident when he plays against lefties.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's kind of where I'm at an oven Carter, just completely dependent because like most teams, if you have a twenty two year old stud, you're going to try them against lefties and the ranges and they're even tried, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So it's like, and if they haven't tried yet, they're not going to try it all.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's nothing's going to change unless they [SPEAKER_00]: Clear out management and Chris Young goes by by he goes to the nationals or whatever now that you know, riso and those guys are gone. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just saying I don't think something's anything's going to change here in the next few years. [SPEAKER_00]: So I am probably just going to have this stance on having Carter. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and that's definitely fair.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I'm I'm Luke warm on Carter. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I, you know, [SPEAKER_02]: He's a good athlete, it's a ninety-first percentile sprint speed. [SPEAKER_02]: He's a good outfielder and gets on base at a good quick. [SPEAKER_02]: He's back to the walking a bit more. [SPEAKER_02]: and then he did last year carry its back down, you know, Chase Rich always was super low. [SPEAKER_02]: But still he's not really hitting the ball super hard.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he gets helped out by, you know, he gets, you know, he pulls at a solid clip and he also gets him on the air and I've these in clip as well. [SPEAKER_02]: So that kind of helps him maximize the power to some degree, you know, more than, you know, the eighty six point eight mile an hour average EV and thirty three percent hard hit rate would indicate, but [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's a move up in my July dynasty rankings, which I'm working on finishing up right now probably out on Tuesday. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm guessing so he'll move back up a bit, but I'm not sure I'm rushing out to to target him and try to trade low. [SPEAKER_02]: That's a lot of my concerns and some of those concerns are, you know, his back issues that he said, many times in this podcast before, that still concerns me. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he looks to be healthy now, which is great.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, Texas definitely needs him as they've been pretty underwhelming offense overall. [SPEAKER_02]: This year just played all the good names they have in that lineup. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not, you know, I'm still concerned about Carter. [SPEAKER_02]: Is the power ever get to the point where he can be a twenty homer guy or is he more like a ten to fifteen homer guy? [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think there's still some value to be had here.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying he's not going to be, you know, fantasy viable. [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, I'm still not sure he becomes the guy we thought he could be. [SPEAKER_02]: So, I don't know, I guess it would depend on the cost. [SPEAKER_02]: If I could give him for cheaper now, I wouldn't be opposed to it. [SPEAKER_02]: Again, I'm not going out and targeting Evan Carter right now either. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, you're not Mr. Cobb, but fun cop.

[SPEAKER_00]: I threw on Evan Carter years ago is Shin Sucu. [SPEAKER_00]: We should have been thought about that name in a minute. [SPEAKER_00]: As basically, like what he is, except he's not even playing against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the whole difference. [SPEAKER_00]: Because he was also not good against lefties, but he at least got PT against them. [SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you just take Shin Sucu, but that you're not going to play against lefties, that's basically what he's doing. [SPEAKER_02]: When, when did Chu, I, I have not thought about Chu in a bit, one to two retire. [SPEAKER_02]: He retired in twenty twenty, age thirty seven. [SPEAKER_02]: He was with Texas for the last seven years. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, Chu is, you know, that's a name is, he was a solid name.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's a guy where I don't know if you've seen the, uh, the two, I know they're on Instagram and stuff too, but I don't really see them on Twitter. [SPEAKER_02]: The hall of pretty good. [SPEAKER_02]: Have you seen that account to him? [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's a really fun concept.

[SPEAKER_02]: Actually, this, this guys from, um, I actually saw him at the New Hampshire Fisher Cats game, uh, about when I was up there seeing three years savage and what's Brown. [SPEAKER_02]: a few weeks ago, so I think he's in that New Hampshire or New England area up near me. [SPEAKER_02]: It looks like he's like, you know, mid to mid to late, twenties guy, but I think that's a really fun concept.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think two would be a great, you know, hall of pretty good guy at two hundred and eighteen career home runs, hundred fifty-seven steals, hit two seventy-five, three seventy-seven OBP, you know, played sixty-hundred games, thirty-four and a half war. [SPEAKER_02]: That's a pretty solid career, they're from two. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, sure. [SPEAKER_00]: To it, she was good.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's one of those guys that you get in like round six or eight real sneaky and then it's just adding value to your team. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's what Evan Carter could be, you know, once he gets his prime, it's just like I said, he's not playing against the lefties. [SPEAKER_02]: So if you're not really leagues, that's just going to kill you. [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, absolutely. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's definitely a big concern there.

[SPEAKER_02]: She actually played up until last year, Auburn could get four more years in Korea up until last year. [SPEAKER_02]: He would do you find it retired for good. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, good career for Shinsu. [SPEAKER_02]: All right, so we'll trip down memory lane here. [SPEAKER_02]: I was to go back to some outfield prospects here. [SPEAKER_02]: We got four really intriguing names here.

[SPEAKER_02]: Starting with Dylan Beaver's of the Baltimore Orioles, twenty three years old in Triple A right now. [SPEAKER_02]: spent last, got a triple last year for a cup of coffee, but most of last year was in AA. [SPEAKER_02]: And you had a fifteen home runs, thirty one seals last year, this year in sixty five games so far.

[SPEAKER_02]: A through nineteen, four oh seven, five oh four slash line, ten doubles, ten home runs, nineteen steals, won't even caught four times, you know, and last year only it was got three times, thirty four attempts, thirty seven walks to forty nine strikeouts. [SPEAKER_02]: I feel like beaver's is becoming, you know, one of the more underrated

[SPEAKER_02]: outfield projects in the game right now, Tim, because he's ever been like the super sexy, buzzy, prospect name, especially in that Baltimore system where there is the jack's hall days and the Kobe Mayo is so many names like that that are bigger names than him over the last couple of years that he has flown under the radar despite having some pretty solid numbers year and year out and now he's on the cusp of getting to the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_02]: Who knows when we see him in Baltimore? [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, obviously, Baltimore has been, you know, not really pushing their guys too hard recently. [SPEAKER_02]: And what did them get a lot of time triple A? [SPEAKER_02]: So you kind of get a wonder when do we see Dylan Beaver's? [SPEAKER_02]: But I think there's a really sticky good profile here. [SPEAKER_02]: And he's a guy that I think is in top fifty consideration.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I saw I think you had him ranked as your, what was it? [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you're a leaventh. [SPEAKER_02]: outfield prospects and I think in your image here, yeah, fifty eight overalls. [SPEAKER_02]: I think you and I are pretty, you know, similar line of thinking here with Dylan Beavers. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's underrated.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is like a, he's really like a really good sneaky value right now because I think people are just like burned out on the Orioles and they're shenanigans with like all their depth and just everyone's like, the role, everything that Orioles do is the wrong move.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're messing up Kobe Mayo and they didn't get in the picture and then now look at stowers over on the marlins and it's like, so everything that Orioles do right now is like bad, but Dylan Beaver has made significant strides here over a year and he deserves to be around top fifty top sixty prospect. [SPEAKER_00]: So like last year, I probably would have given him like a forty hit tool. [SPEAKER_00]: I give him a sixty hit tool now.

[SPEAKER_00]: He has jacked his contact rate from last year. [SPEAKER_00]: It was like seventy seven, seventy seven. [SPEAKER_00]: It's only seventy two and a half a AAA. [SPEAKER_00]: He has an eighty four percent contact rate now. [SPEAKER_00]: His zone contact rate is at ninety percent this year. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's just completely changed his hit tool from like a forty to like a fifty five or sixty. [SPEAKER_00]: Like it's like a plus hit, he's at a plus hit tool now.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he has also increased his EVs. [SPEAKER_00]: So his EVs, he's got an eighty nine point five average EV, one oh five point one, ninety if one ten max EVs, so his EVs are higher from before his pole rate, his barrel rate, nine point one percent barrel rate, line drive rate, thirty two point six percent line drive rate. [SPEAKER_00]: So, everything that he's doing right now is spot on. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have platoon issues with him because guess what?

[SPEAKER_00]: He's hitting three, twenty against RIDs and three, four, ten against Luffy's. [SPEAKER_00]: So no Evan Carter. [SPEAKER_00]: Evan Carter platoon issues here with Dylan Beaver's. [SPEAKER_00]: The other thing that I love. [SPEAKER_00]: If you look at bar chart on his launch angle distribution, he's very condensed in like the ten to thirty-ish range on launch angles. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's got a fourteen average launch angle, but he's really condensed in that spot.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like how I mentioned with Colson Montgomery where it's just like all over the place like the same height bar across the entire spectrum. [SPEAKER_00]: Like it's like a very condensed and the EVs are all on the higher end, like on the bar chart too. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's not like low high, low high. [SPEAKER_00]: He's very consistent. [SPEAKER_00]: He's been very consistent all year. [SPEAKER_00]: The hit tools improved. [SPEAKER_00]: He already had the tools last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like he had power speed last year, fifteen bombs, thirty one seals. [SPEAKER_00]: with forty extra base hits. [SPEAKER_00]: It was just the hit tool because he only had two forty last year. [SPEAKER_00]: So now he's lower the carate. [SPEAKER_00]: The hit tools better and we have a complete player at this point in time. [SPEAKER_00]: Like he could be he could be a complete five tool player.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I don't know if he's going to be a superstar, but I think he's going to be like a really good all like all star level player who could go twenty twenty five, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Twenty he could be a twenty thirty. [SPEAKER_00]: Like he's going to be a really good player, I think. [SPEAKER_00]: especially if that hit tool holds. [SPEAKER_00]: If you can carry over what he's done with these contact rates into the majors, he's gonna be a very good player.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I definitely agree. [SPEAKER_02]: And this guy that's always walked at a good clip. [SPEAKER_02]: And he's been very consistent with the walk rates too. [SPEAKER_02]: He was thirteen point three percent walk rate in twenty twenty three twelve point eight percent last year thirteen point two percent this year. [SPEAKER_02]: As you mentioned, the key rate, which was never bad. [SPEAKER_02]: He was actually, you know, around twenty two twenty three percent key rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's down to seventeen and a half percent this year. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, while increasing in the context field. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it's like it's above average to plus approach right now. [SPEAKER_02]: There's above average context skills like nothing in the profile like I think it's gonna like stand out or be like, you know, plus or better, but he could just be, you know, a fifty-five across the board, maybe even virtual fifty-power.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's a bit more than like a low-twenties home run guide, but I think he definitely could be like the upper teams, low-twenties home runs, twenty-plus deals, you know, he's above average or better runner, you know, with the solid average OBP as well. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean,

[SPEAKER_02]: kind of what a lot of what I was thinking about Jacob Melton you know I think is underrated as well obviously he was now you know been contributing up in Houston a little bit at least playing Houston I should say but yeah I think Dylan Beaver says is really undervalued right now and a very strong a dynasty by for sure and maybe even see them later this year hopefully gets a cup of coffee into the year maybe even maybe he's a star for them next year we shall see who knows is Baltimore you know as you mentioned this been kind of a

[SPEAKER_02]: inconsistent with how they deal with their prospects lately. [SPEAKER_02]: So who knows when we see him, but should be soon. [SPEAKER_02]: All right. [SPEAKER_02]: Now let's keep it right in the American League East and go to I think you could say that this guy is the most polarizing prospect right now at Spencer Jones with the New York Yankees.

[SPEAKER_02]: twenty four years old got the AAA but a week and a half ago already has you know a few bombs up in AAA over all this year nineteen homeruns twelve steals and fifty six games actually at homer number twenty today so he has full homeruns [SPEAKER_02]: and eight games at the AAA level, and it was like, you know, I was like, four hundred and forty five feet or whatever. [SPEAKER_02]: He doesn't hit cheap ones.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's, you know, what I like to call big boy power of the hair from Central Jones and something I've seen live on many occasions. [SPEAKER_02]: I've seen them at absolute moon shot of a home run last year. [SPEAKER_02]: when I saw him in New Hampshire, but yeah, Jones, huge power, you know, good athlete too. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that gets lost with the mass of power that, you know, he's a, you know, five average to plus runner. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, huge, six, seven, two, forty.

[SPEAKER_02]: You don't think he's going to be a good speed guy, but, you know, he's got speed. [SPEAKER_02]: So the potential is here for like thirty, five, the forty home runs and, you know, fifteen to twenty steals. [SPEAKER_02]: However, then you see the thirty three percent strikeout rate and you see the below sixty percent contact rate. [SPEAKER_02]: It's just rough and low zone contact rate as well. [SPEAKER_02]: So I don't know, Tim, what were you at on Spencer Jones here?

[SPEAKER_02]: Because yeah, I think there's the maybe the widest range of outcomes that we can see for a prospect right now where you see it all star bat there potentially at the context skills are at least somewhat passable. [SPEAKER_02]: And you'll see a guy that could be the next like, you know, will Benson. [SPEAKER_02]: our CD is a keynote, you know, insert whatever big power name that just couldn't make a contact inter here. [SPEAKER_02]: So where do you fall on the Spencer Jones range?

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the scare, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The scariest that he's Joey Gallo because I had him. [SPEAKER_00]: I had him ranked at twenty eight overall preseason and then I dropped him down to seventy two and I think I'm still like one of the higher guys on him at seventy two like [SPEAKER_00]: I think when I had blessing on blessings, like, oh, Spencer Jones is not even anywhere nearby. [SPEAKER_00]: Just because he's, like, so volatile.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, like, you look at the hit the contact rates and you're like, under six, you percent contact, like, even now he's mashing right now, but his contact rate, like, a triple A, he's hitting three, ninety three. [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, in thirty five. [SPEAKER_00]: It's only thirty five played a period. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's a small sample size. [SPEAKER_00]: But he's hitting three ninety three. [SPEAKER_00]: So you're like, Oh, he's got to be making contact.

[SPEAKER_00]: If he's hitting almost four hundred, but it's contact rate is still fifty seven percent. [SPEAKER_00]: And his zone contact rate is still sixty one percent. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's still terrible. [SPEAKER_00]: Making contact. [SPEAKER_00]: He's just, uh, I guess he has enough power. [SPEAKER_00]: And he's like just aggressive enough in the zone that he's making at work.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like this, this, [SPEAKER_00]: This profile here, he would be lucky to have Dales and Dales since it's a contact tool even. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just bad. [SPEAKER_00]: It's so bad. [SPEAKER_00]: Is it thirty-tool even? [SPEAKER_00]: That's what I'm mad. [SPEAKER_00]: Is it even a thirty-tool hit tool? [SPEAKER_00]: That's what we need to find out. [SPEAKER_00]: He's got seventy-tool, seventy-great power. [SPEAKER_00]: He's got fifty-tool, fifty-tool, fifty-five speed, whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's still some bags. [SPEAKER_00]: But it's just like, is the contact tool even like? [SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to, is he going to touch the ball enough for his power to play up? [SPEAKER_00]: I saw him in spring training a couple of times and he, I don't think he touched the ball one time. [SPEAKER_00]: Like I did not even hear what the ball sounded like off the bat because he just swam in this. [SPEAKER_00]: But there's also splits here.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like if you look at splits for Spencer Jones, this might actually be something that the Yankees could play with to kind of like warm him into the league when they do finally bring him up. [SPEAKER_00]: against varieties, he's hitting three, eleven, four, eleven, six, sixty, five with sixteen of his bombs against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: He's hitting two, fourteen, three, seventy, seven, four, seventy, six.

[SPEAKER_00]: The K rate is closer to forty percent than thirty percent with lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's still pretty bad against varieties. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think he's [SPEAKER_00]: It might be like the smooth, easy play for the Yankees to say, okay, let's just kind of like, easy win here. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, give you some nice easy ride.

[SPEAKER_00]: Some guys with some meat balls, we're not going to throw you, you know, have you pitch or have you hit against, you know, an ace here. [SPEAKER_00]: Let's just let you hit against Charlie Morton or something for a little bit. [SPEAKER_00]: Just kind of warm them in before you throw them into the wolves, because [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if this contest is going to play.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like in my for a couple of years, you might get like a couple of years or you know a couple of months or whatever of greatness. [SPEAKER_00]: And you're like, oh my god, look at this guy. [SPEAKER_00]: But then at the end of the day, it's just going to be, I feel like it's just going to be such a volatile player. [SPEAKER_00]: Like will he be Joey Gallo? [SPEAKER_00]: Will he be Aaron Judge?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like he's like Aaron Judge also remember had these same concerns when he was coming up, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Like Aaron Judge was not Aaron Judge when he was a prospect. [SPEAKER_00]: He's like, okay, this guy has a ton of power. [SPEAKER_00]: He's a huge man. [SPEAKER_00]: And he has a while of swing and miss. [SPEAKER_00]: Can he make it work? [SPEAKER_00]: And he did.

[SPEAKER_00]: So hopefully, you know, like, if you think about it, maybe Spencer Jones, he's going to hang out with Aaron Judge for a little bit and he can, you know, just go to the batting cage every day with those two guys, make him roommate and like have him move into Aaron Judge's home for a little bit. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, like, yeah, just whatever whatever they could do to make it work because like if it works, he's going to be a superstar.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like your range of outcomes here on this player is just so ridiculous. [SPEAKER_00]: It's from like quadruple a guy to superstar. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, go the dice. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's yeah, absolutely true right there. [SPEAKER_02]: And what I've thought with with with Jones is that if you just give me like forty grade, it's like you can make it work. [SPEAKER_02]: Like I'm not going to ask for a fifth fee.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if you'd be great, but I think that's, you know, just never going to happen. [SPEAKER_02]: But if you just give me like [SPEAKER_02]: sixty-six sixty-seven percent contact with like mid-seventy percent zone. [SPEAKER_02]: I think that would even work. [SPEAKER_02]: That's still not great metrics right there, but we're talking about, you know, a zone that's under seventy and, you know, overall that's below sixty. [SPEAKER_02]: So that's just not going to make it work.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's fun and the numbers have been goddied for the most part, but yeah, I just, I don't see it working right now unless there's somewhat of a step forward in the in the contact department, which hasn't really happened yet, but [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, you want to I want you to guess what do you think obviously this was entering today for seven games or play what do you think is bad that was him in AAA entering today.

[SPEAKER_00]: Three sixty five thirty three [SPEAKER_01]: It's crazy. [SPEAKER_02]: Five, thirty, three. [SPEAKER_02]: But for the year, he is a three, eight, five bad tips. [SPEAKER_02]: And then five, thirty, three. [SPEAKER_02]: Good seven. [SPEAKER_02]: It was seven games. [SPEAKER_02]: So it's got a funny eye. [SPEAKER_02]: You don't really see a five, thirty, three bad but bad opting on on fan graphs. [SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, who knows?

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, obviously, as a red socks fan, I selfishly don't want him to be great. [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, I know the potentials there. [SPEAKER_02]: So it'll be fun to see how this goes. [SPEAKER_02]: Especially when he debuted either, I mean, a later this year or early, twenty, twenty, six. [SPEAKER_02]: It's gonna be fun one more or the other. [SPEAKER_02]: And we'll see how it goes, but I am, you know, more so not targeting Jones in Dinosaur League, though.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: I don't blame you. [SPEAKER_00]: It's rough. [SPEAKER_02]: It's tough to, I mean, you want to, it's fun, but you're bringing out the brain in the heart kind of to go different ways with the Center Jones. [SPEAKER_02]: All right, two more here. [SPEAKER_02]: We got Justin Crawford here with the Philadelphia Phillies who couldn't be more different than Spencer Jones.

[SPEAKER_02]: Crawford obviously, son of Carl Crawford, which, again, makes you feel old that all these, you know, I rostered his father in fantasy, you know, back in two thousand seven or whatever. [SPEAKER_02]: and now I'm ranking his son. [SPEAKER_02]: I was twenty-one years old, you know, won't be twenty-two until January of next year. [SPEAKER_02]: Now, having a pretty good year.

[SPEAKER_02]: This one, I could talk about a lot, but having a pretty good year to play Lehigh Valley, three, forty-three, four, sixteen, four, fifty-one, slash line, two bombs, fifty-four runs scored, twenty-six deals, eleven, twenty-four percent of walk rate, seventeen, a point four percent, K rates.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, he does have a good contact skills, he's near ninety percent of his own, [SPEAKER_02]: eighty to eighty-one eighty-two percent overall and obviously in elite double plus or better runner but I gotta I just don't see him hitting for a ton of home runs there is power there I guess it's there's it's not like he's lacks power in general because you look at he actually has a EV of ninety point two miles an hour

[SPEAKER_02]: forty four point seven cent heart hit rate, but only a three point seven percent barrel rate because he just hits really everything into the ground. [SPEAKER_02]: He's got a sixty point six percent ground ball rate this year. [SPEAKER_02]: Last year was sixty point nine percent. [SPEAKER_02]: Twenty twenty three was your seventy percent. [SPEAKER_02]: He's been about sixty percent literally every level he's ever been at.

[SPEAKER_02]: So maybe he could be a twelve fifteen homer guy if he lifted the bit more, but [SPEAKER_02]: I just don't see that happening. [SPEAKER_02]: It's been consistently super high ground ball rates. [SPEAKER_02]: So at this point, I can't really project him to be more than like a five to eight homer guy, but maybe he gets to it more in games, moving forward if he lifted it more.

[SPEAKER_02]: But even if he's not a huge power guy, [SPEAKER_02]: or even a fifteen homer guy, I mean, this could be forty steals high average could be as well. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, but these guys, we've seen a lot of these guys. [SPEAKER_02]: We've seen the Victor Scotts of the world, the ruins of the world. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, so it's a really polarizing profile in general that not a lot of people are, you know, in on. [SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of people are like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Some people don't kind of a heart profile to value long term. [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, where do you fall on just in Crawford? [SPEAKER_02]: See a guy that you're looking to target here moving forward? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've got him right to my top fifty overall. [SPEAKER_00]: I've got him as my number fourteen outfielder. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's up relatively soon. [SPEAKER_00]: He could be up before the deadline. [SPEAKER_00]: He's probably up this month.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he's up pretty soon. [SPEAKER_00]: So there's proximity play here. [SPEAKER_00]: But you mentioned Victor Scott. [SPEAKER_00]: We just saw Chandler Simpson. [SPEAKER_00]: We saw Mr. Eruise. [SPEAKER_00]: People are going to be burned out on this topic type of guy because of them, but he's not them. [SPEAKER_00]: He's it was got like all the best of all their tools rolled into one as far as like fantasy goes. [SPEAKER_00]: He has a better hit tool than all those guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: He has higher EVs than all those guys and he has the ability. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, even though he hits the ball in the ground, it's actually probably a good thing because one of Victor Scott's, like, I'm a Cardinals fan, but one of Victor Scott's flaws is almost not hitting the ball in the ground enough. [SPEAKER_00]: This Victor Scott, it was hitting the ball fly ball, forty percent last year, which is why he's so bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: This year, he's actually doing better about hit, like, he only has a thirty-three percent fly ball rate. [SPEAKER_00]: And like, I mean, like, if you're not going to hit homers, you don't want to be hitting the ball in the air.

[SPEAKER_00]: You want to be hitting the ball the ground or you want to be hitting line drives and he's got a twenty five percent line drive rate just and Crawford so despite you know fifty seven percent ground ball rate he is hitting line drives he does have gap power he does have twenty two extra base hits on the season so it's not like a nothing burger and power here like he's a double-sitter [SPEAKER_00]: Right, right now he's a double hitter who has a ton of speed.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that he's hitting the ball in the ground is good. [SPEAKER_00]: This is allowing him to use his speed to get on base and run up a crazy batting average. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think you probably have like a two eighty or two ninety hitter here. [SPEAKER_00]: And even if these angles are maintained into the majors, maybe only hits like [SPEAKER_00]: You know, five six seven eight home runs. [SPEAKER_00]: That's okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: If he's giving you also thirty five doubles and he's getting on base enough to give you forty plus deals. [SPEAKER_00]: Because you're getting batting average and you're getting steals. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's good. [SPEAKER_00]: This is actually like what you want in a rabbit. [SPEAKER_00]: Like if you're going to draft this type of player, this is [SPEAKER_00]: The ideal outcome is Justin Crawford, like this is that type of guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's like the primo of all those types of things rolled into one. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you were trying to get some, you know, that type of player with Victor Scott and Chandler Simpson and you missed out, like Justin Crawford can do it better than all those guys, like he's just, he's a way safer version of all those guys. [SPEAKER_02]: And he'll be going into a very good lineup, a good hitters park as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I know they've been, you know, they've choreber up at the top of his high OBP, but imagine if, you know, it won't happen in, you know, this year, obviously, but maybe down the road, you know, Crawford could be a pretty good lead off guy in front of some big boppers, you know, who knows, who's, so to be there at that point time, they'll harbor will be, but, you know, the, till he's always have, simply they always have some good boppers in there that line up.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, [SPEAKER_02]: I think he could be a guy that gives you a ton of run scored given how much he got some base money, you know, stolen bases that kind of advance him up, you know, you mentioned he's going to be a guy that probably had to give me thirty five forty doubles a year. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I like this profile a lot and I've been probably a little too low.

[SPEAKER_02]: In my ranking of him, I've been moving them up lately, but this is a really good all-round profile. [SPEAKER_02]: And I said, if he does, even start tapping into that power a little bit more and hits a little few more line drives and five balls, and maybe get scramble right closer to fifty percent, I think we'll still be fine for him. [SPEAKER_02]: He gets up to like twelve to fifteen home runs.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think everything clicks, and again, I hate clumps, but if everything clicks, [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's like a poor man's Jared Durand or something like that. [SPEAKER_02]: I can see that in Durand. [SPEAKER_02]: I saw a lot coming up through and big speed guy, you know, power can develop more lately in this prospect career kind of like Justin Crawford says over the last year or two.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm not quite as fast as Crawford is overall, but obviously Durand's very fast in his own right, but [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I like Crawford a good bit here. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I agree. [SPEAKER_02]: I do think he's up pretty soon here. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, look at the fillies that the chart here super quick. [SPEAKER_02]: See, they got just Brendan Marsh has been starting against righties. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, it's probably platoon of Marsh and Johan Rojas, it's underfields.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, I mean, do they keep rolling with that? [SPEAKER_02]: You know, moving forward. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's not terrible, I guess, but it's not great either. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, Martian Ross are kind of probably better suited as like fourth-out field type. [SPEAKER_02]: So maybe they're like, hey, let's, you know, give Crawford a look here into the season and see what we got with him because obviously he's one there.

[SPEAKER_02]: One of their top prospects with it with a bright future. [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I think Crawford's a solid buy right now as well. [SPEAKER_02]: Last name here, go into the Cubs who I just love the Cubs. [SPEAKER_02]: Well, majorly guys and my only guys. [SPEAKER_02]: A lot of fun guys talk about in the Cubs organization and one of those guys definitely is Owen Casey. [SPEAKER_02]: There's a Casey should be older than he is.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's twenty two years old, but if I've been talking about him for a long, long time now, he's using my twenty twenty one FYPD rankings, but [SPEAKER_02]: This year, two, seventy, three, three, eighty, two, five, fifty, one slash line with a fourteen percent walk rate, thirty and a half percent strikeout rate, sixteen homeruns, three steals, and three hundred and one plate appearances, and the power is absolutely there with KCA.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a fifty-two percent hard hit rate, near twenty percent barrel rate, you know, he's among the AAA leaders and both of those marks, but it's below average contact. [SPEAKER_02]: Not terrible though, it's not anywhere near Spencer Jones. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, he's around seventy eight percent zone and sixty nine percent overall. [SPEAKER_02]: So plus, you know, the higher care, which is always kind of bend that he's always been in that vicinity of thirty percent.

[SPEAKER_02]: So go moving forward. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think he's more like a two forty ish hitter, but could be like a twenty five thirty home or bat. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, maybe he's a, you know, poor man's Nick Cassiano, something like that. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think that could be, I'll come though. [SPEAKER_02]: I think Cassiano's the better contenter than Casey has a potential to be, but, you know, definitely [SPEAKER_02]: Love the power here.

[SPEAKER_02]: You could run a little bit. [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe you got to give you a five six seven steel something like that, but I just don't think the average is going to be super high. [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe we're valuable in OBP formats though, which has always been pretty solid walk rate guy as well. [SPEAKER_02]: And you know, fourteen percent this year, thirteen percent last year. [SPEAKER_02]: fourteen and a half percent twenty twenty three.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think if you're an OBP formats, good enough to be a guy that has a bit more value there. [SPEAKER_02]: It means a three eighty two will be paid this year three seventy five last year three ninety eight year before that. [SPEAKER_02]: So always been a high OBP high walk right guy. [SPEAKER_02]: But I just I'm not super you know in on the average here.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's why I've been probably a little bit lower than most on Casey, but he's always been like back at double hundred or so for me over the last year or two. [SPEAKER_02]: Where are you at Mr. Owen Casey, Tim? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've got him at one eighteen, so I'm pretty similar ranges you. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, he's always hit the crap out of the ball. [SPEAKER_00]: I was always been there. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, every single year and his angles are insane this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's really on one right now, he's on a heater.

[SPEAKER_00]: four bombs last week for Casey and just all the angles are right so everything he's doing right now is right and it's actually good for him and it's good for the cubs users a lot of talk out there that he's going to get traded you know when the cubs try to do something he's like the guy that they're going to dingle out there right so like I mean whether that's him or alcatara like the cubs have a lot of guys that are kind of like right on the periphery of you called up and they don't have the room especially now field

[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, he could get moved for somebody in the offseason and then come right in. [SPEAKER_00]: I think issue I have with Casey. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I keep bringing it up. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just like there's major split concern here with him. [SPEAKER_00]: He's terrible against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: He mash his righties, two ninety nine three ninety two sixty nine slash against varieties with thirteen bombs.

[SPEAKER_00]: But against lefties, he's hitting and this is not a small sample sizes and seventy four plate appearances. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's like a decent chunk. [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, one eighty six three fifty one three fifty six slash. [SPEAKER_00]: So really bad against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: So there's definitely some split platoony concerns here with Casey long term. [SPEAKER_00]: If you can work that out, I mean, he hits the ball hard enough that it might not be anything.

[SPEAKER_00]: He also still walks against lefties. [SPEAKER_00]: So he still has like an AD percent walk rate despite the terrible banning average. [SPEAKER_00]: Like his eyes still good enough because he does have a good eye. [SPEAKER_00]: He's one of these guys that has a good eye in walks a bunch, but then also case a bunch. [SPEAKER_00]: So like you're totally getting three true outcomes here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like you're totally going to get with him like a maximum sea ish profile ultimately and you know maybe maybe there's because he's a little more athletic than maximum sea so maybe you get like [SPEAKER_00]: a little more juice out of the batting average just because he's going to run more stuff out, but like you could totally get like a max-monsi type profile here, but he just can't hit lefties, at least not yet. [SPEAKER_00]: It may come, but not yet.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, definitely, another guy, not as much of a wide range of outcomes as Spencer Jones, but I mean, there's a pretty wide range for Owen Casey as well, but yeah, I think the cubs would be silly to not look to deal from someone there, you know, especially the Alfield Project, whether it's Casey or Alcontra, maybe even Jonathan Long who I'm very high on as well, but, you know, it's right, look at their depth chart, they just don't play their bench guys at all, like the last week,

[SPEAKER_02]: uh... recent lawyers gotten in their twice uh... for cars and Kelly i catcher but the other three bench guys just turned or john birdie and the bill brew on have not played whatsoever it's not the same starting nine that's a bit you know the catcher basically the entire her week so i didn't not really any spot right now as an injury even for long you know this bush is getting what first base you got hap talker pc and i don't feel it's a zuki at dh they're pretty set everywhere but they could use another picture to go with a young boy the managa

[SPEAKER_02]: If you can get another good guy in there, I think the cops could be really dangerous to see her and maybe we see Casey or Alcantra or Long or whoever, and it dealt a way for maybe at Sandy Alcantra, who I don't know who they're gonna go get, Galen. [SPEAKER_00]: Galen or Merrill Kelly rumors?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, maybe, you know, I think they would serve well to go and get another arm and trade from their help field prospects, but we shall see we get what about other three and a half or so weeks till the deadline, which I think's gonna be a pretty fun one. [SPEAKER_02]: All right, that will wrap us up. [SPEAKER_02]: Tim, thanks for joining me. [SPEAKER_02]: This was a lot of fun. [SPEAKER_02]: What are you going on right now?

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, just released all my rankings for positions. [SPEAKER_00]: And it took me like, I don't know, a couple of weeks to just go through them all. [SPEAKER_00]: So I did like position ranking releases after I did my last update. [SPEAKER_00]: My next update is going to be an August some time. [SPEAKER_00]: I say sometime because I have a baby number five on the way in August.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes it's a baby so you never know when they're going to come I think the last one came like a week early so it's like whatever so we'll see we'll see when I can get them out but it'll be like probably the middle of August sometime is when I get my next rankings update out [SPEAKER_00]: In the meantime, I've got the podcast going where I'm doing my weekly like T-Ten. [SPEAKER_00]: Basically, I've continued what I did with Welsh on P. We did the P-Ten's last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I just kind of did the T-Ten's this year on Fantasy A's ball. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to check out like the top ten guys that I have each week, some of them are hot guys, some of them are just, you know, most of them are guys that are doing something good on the good side. [SPEAKER_00]: I try to stay away from like the negative. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's mostly positive things.

[SPEAKER_00]: And also I have the article on fantasy pros comes out every week for like basically it's a larger version of that T-ten where it's like here's all the best players for the week at each level. [SPEAKER_02]: Awesome stuff. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, definitely go check out all of Tim stuff. [SPEAKER_02]: Again, you can follow him on Twitter, X or everyone call it's at Fantasy A small. [SPEAKER_02]: Check out the podcast as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'll leave back to you again again later this week and other second episode going over my dynasty rankings update, which again, I think will be on Tuesday, maybe Wednesday. [SPEAKER_02]: See when I get it finished, but until then, everyone take care.