Dealing with heatwaves

From India's largest Newsroom. I'm are enjoyed, and this is the times of India podcast. We will indeed weather department, has issued a heat wave warning for multiple parts of North India, including New Delhi, the national capital terminal out of government has issued an advisory asking people not to venture out unless it's absolutely necessary. Jim talked about, yeah. Across the country, the years, highest temperatures are being reported, thousands of cases of

heat. Related elements have been recorded across the country. However, we have no accurate estimate of heat-related deaths, the meteorological department has issued multiple warnings in regions for heat waves, but we don't know how many people are the most at risk due to such high temperatures, Most states in India. Now, have a heat action plan, as a policy to deal with heat waves

and high temperatures. But as a study by the delhi-based center for policy, research found many of the plans, don't get it. Demented very well or provide much relief to those most affected by the heat.

One of the authors of the report are the the appeal a joins us on the show today to talk about how India deals with heatwaves presently and why it will need to change in the coming years as if they talk stores about why there's no escaping, super hot summers anymore and how we are risking health and economic impacts by not dealing with it properly. So are they the we're recording this on a day when it's yellow Alert in Delhi, where temperatures been in the 40s for

days? Now, is this an unusual year or is this what we're going to get used to now? Yeah, it's 11:17 in the morning and it's all day over 40 degrees. This is not an unusual year so far. Especially this month is not been unusual by any stretch of the imagination day. He does cross into the 40's quite often. Today, we've had a heatwave, a lot declared which means it's going to be exceptionally hot and I think you can see the effects of that on the street. But then the question is over

heat. Wave alert has been declared how much should it change visibly change the functioning of society and the economy and clearly today to my mind apart from these small things. Pretty much nothing has really I couldn't wait. So which, which makes me think about how much we should react to heat waves, what's the acceptable amount and for what type of heat.

The one, an unusual moment of this summer came actually before the summer, which was in fehb, when we had the hottest fehb in history, and February is not usually known to be a hot month. And last year we had an extremely hot March.

So this now, two years in a row. We Get a sense that the temperature spike is coming earlier and that has all sorts of economy-wide impacts because the economy structure on having relatively cool temperatures to admit much, especially Agriculture and so. On this year, we've also had this prediction that temperatures will rise by 1.5 degrees. Could you explain what that

means? Is it that you like say we are right now at 42 degrees of the highest and the highest temperature today could be like a 40 to 43 degrees. Does it mean that we will be at 45 degrees from next year onwards? What happened was the wmo put out a modeling study that suggested and this is a forward-looking study. It's a forecast for the next five years and they asked how much is temperature going to increase from the pre Industrial Average and this is the global

average temperature, right? So it doesn't mean anything for any specific place. It's not an indication that it was supposed to be 43 today. It's going to be 44.5. That's, that's not how it works. So global average, some places will heat much more and someplace where heat much less.

They said the chance of us breaching 1.5 degrees of the pre Industrial Average, one point five degree warming for at least one of the next five years was likely, and there was a 98% percent probability that the next five years. Will be hotter than the previous five, but I think what it means. I think you step back from the fine print, it's important.

No a, the planet is getting warmer very fast. 1.5 is Hallowed Ground because it is baked into the Paris agreement, and it is what all our Global Collective action has been targeted towards over the last decade or so, taking off from that, we should learn that they're going to be significant impacts and it's not just here. Eat right. It's also about Coastal erosion, it's about forest fires, it's

about sea, sea level rise. And what that means for coastal cities is what river, flooding, Urban, flooding, all of those things are now brought into the spotlight with a 1.5 increase since we're focusing on here today, you know, Major Tool that we look at and really the only policy we have when it comes to tackling or dealing with the heat is your heat action plan, which is now Across the country in a report that you've done for

CPR. You pointed out that these are largely ineffectual and don't really do much. Could you explain why? Yeah. So the first thing is not every city that needs a heat action plan has one, not every state has one and not every district has been. So we in our study, we try to actually take a look at heat action plans or understand what they do and don't do well. So Deli right now. We have a heat wave alert but we don't have a functioning Heat.

Action plan. So there are still gaps but the positive story here is that you know, in a long did decade we went from one heat action plan and I'm the bird which is the Forerunner to all these other cities to today. Ten years down the line we found 37 and we definitely think there are more that we weren't able to get a Hands-On. So that's an encouraging story, that heat planning has become something that governments now do. And this is happening at a very Decentralized localized level,

right? So the fact that it's bottom-up, I think seems to indicate at some level that heat is recognized as a problem. So that's the good news. We're not at a place where the worst of heat is kicked in. So this is the learning period. People are dying through this and we need to make sure that we learn every possible lesson from all these incidents that happen in terms of the in terms of understanding. In what heat action plans do and

don't do well. One of the things that they do and because we had this data set of, you know, 37 plans with okay is quite cool. Why don't we actually look at all the solutions proposed and understand what the solution map is and in doing so we realize is like a wealth of solutions across across the board. You name it, everything that you've seen in anything about heat plans across the world, Indian, he plans have That's great. One of the problems is they were not very localized.

So you have these Solutions. But are they adapted to the named reality? The local River reality of a place, right? Some places are humid in human, heat can be lethal, some places have warm lights, which means you can't rest at night. So, they are these questions about the type of heat there questions about how that Society is dealt with heat in the past, which means how many people Have

died at this x temperature. If you want to declare a heatwave, What temperature would you declare a heat wave at? So if you were to declare a heat wave at a point, you know, in the past has triggered debts, which means local adaptation. Techniques person in the community adaptation techniques have been surpassed, which is why you get debts then that's

when you declare for that. You need local data on mortality and then finally socioeconomically, where are the most Double people made by the people who are working heat, expose jobs. Where do they live? What kind of houses do they live in? Do they have access to electricity and water.

So, that that level of localization, we didn't see a whole lot of vulnerability assessments, for example, which is actually asking these questions about where the wonderful people live, who the wonderful people are. So that's, you know, pregnant women and so on and so forth, at have need have one ability assessments only two of the 37 to of the 37 heat action plans had one pretty assessments now. We know the jodhpur heat action plans, just come out, has a

vulnerability assessment. So we're looking at about less than 10 percent of Indian heat action plans. Having this perhaps the biggest cause of worry is the institutional structure around heat action plan, right? And the problem there is there not financed in most cases the solution often touted in heat action plans is can you build our Solutions into existing departmental budgeting and you

know as well? I do that states and cities Etc are fiscally stressed a lot of the time and don't really have the room to take on new new projects. They're not encased in any sort of Legal Foundation and they have no independent evaluations because heat is something that's changing every year. These things have to be revised every year, which means you need evaluations. And most importantly, I think you need to have a conversation with people who are heat affected while you're revising.

The plan which means actually going out there conducting your Choppers, and your focus group discussions and whatnot, and coming back in and rewriting your plans. We didn't see too much evidence of that either. So the questions about the implementation efficacy here, but there are also some positives that we found.

So the, but again, I just want to say that these are early days and the idea behind writing this report was, can we now move things in a direction where India can really establish itself as a model for how to deal with one of the worst effects of climate change. So, do I think that's a separate conversation of when heat waves are being declared and so on. But your broader point, I think stands, which is I think we are

now with heat. We're at a tree public awareness phase in terms of this heat being substantially different in a way. Think about air pollution in Northern cities about Seven, eight years. Why even now to a great is degree, right? So, there's there is a public awareness issue. Things are being done, mostly at least on paper. Things are being done. You have to communicate what

heat is to people. And all of these heat action plans have a significant information block of solutions so that there is a traditional early warning system communication which is you know lime D will be issuing only wanting to communicate that but also And it's communicated, they have activities to go out then build knowledge and capacity not only amongst vulnerable populations but also amongst government officials traffic cops everyone who has anything

to do with the lived reality of a city, or a town or a village on on a day-to-day basis. So this is very expansive knowledge, building exercise. And they also now rely very much on Modern communication techniques such as WhatsApp groups, and, of course, they have Older, things like the radio jingles. And now recently, we've seen a bunch of s tma's come out with YouTube videos and YouTube shorts, but what I wonder is How effectual they are.

So that that is really the Gap because we have Solutions on paper, we don't know how well they're being implemented and I suspect. There's a variation implementation across the country but you know, you said that like with air pollution that it's 78 years since we started talking about it you don't really see a sort of, what would you say public outrage or public? Demand for cleaner air or something like that?

Can we afford to be as I'm about it with heat because it's as direct and impact as say bad error. Yeah, I mean, anything, in terms of the deaths, I mean air is so much higher than heat. I mean, those are lancers report and massive numbers of people dying because of direct exposure

to air pollution. And then, additionally, there is this interaction between air pollution and heat which is the exposure to air pollution will greatly exacerbate, the potential for a heat that which is people came. Out recently. So there is obviously a really big problem. The public awareness for it is obviously not near enough especially in a city like Delhi and I think anecdotally, I think both of us probably ask people.

What do you think about this P? Super smog that you're in you can't even see your hand outstretched in front of you and people say, oh you know it's just the fog, it's not smoke. I think it's different in different cities right? I think Bombay. For example, this year, correct

me if I'm wrong. It felt like there was a pretty big sort of like, push back on pollution, especially from civil society and and folks on the ground, which we haven't seen as much in Delhi. But here's the thing, right? So we had, for example, the Delhi government make it a core issue in the last election. So it was actual campaign issue. I don't think it's the case. That there is no increase in public awareness around this. What I've taken away from that

is Is it takes a proper decade. I think between something popping up in the policy space in a building like CPR or in other places across the country and it becoming sort of entrenched in the lived patterns of people's existence, right. So what with he too, can you afford to take that long to like I'm saying if we are talking of higher temperatures in hotter

places? I mean we Looking pretty unbearable temperatures for long periods of time and can you say then, save it for, you know, half a decade before. Firstly, I don't think so. I don't think you can wait a decade before because a day, I mean, think about how quickly things have been moving, right? In terms of climate impacts. What I am suggesting is, that's the pattern just based on the

case of are, right? I, you know, I think localized climate impacts, especially, pollution related hazards, may be that, that system of He engage ment and opinion-forming operates faster. But in this broad diffuse, Invisible Killer, which is what are is. And heat is also brought diffuse Invisible Killer. I think it takes a long time unless you have a concerted political effort to identify this as a problem and the concerted political gains to be made from solving that problem.

Now are, is very difficult to solve. I think heat is even harder because you can't solve it. There is no stopping the heat, you can stop there. There's no stopping me. He's all you can do is invest in making sure people don't die and when people don't die, it's not a new story. So there's something. Wonky about the political feedback structure around heat and around. A lot of adaptation vestments. There is a chance. What will change things sadly?

And very, unfortunately, is a major heat that the rent. And we've seen that to them. The birth where the public Machinery, kicked into gear. We've seen that, in Orissa in the late 90s, public Machinery, kick it in gear Telangana. Now has a cool roofs program, so that that is a system that sort of Spurs, a Machinery into action. But when it's an organic thing like are it's invisible fuse, and all you have is modeling to suggest what the death death potential is? It feels like that.

Sort of absorption of Hazards is less efficient in. The Indian Indian public imagination than these sort of like gory death based events in terms of adaptation and other thing is how you spoke of various policies can be used to sort of improve our adaptation towards it. But how much is that happening? Presently and how prevalent are such adaptation measures currently in India.

So it's hard to say because our report I mean, the study we've done is purely based on analyzing the Action plans themselves. In the next phase of our research will be about the actual implementation. So I'll be able to give you a rigorous answer more rigorous, answer down the line in terms of how much they're being implemented. I think anecdotally, we know that some cities actually do care about implementing this

stuff. Other cities, may not have the capacity, awareness and then there's a third layer of cities that have just released heat. Action plans, is completely new document and so we have absolutely no idea in a way the You asking is very early in the sense in three years from now, we like she I think have a much better sense of what the level of implementation, so these solutions that are proposed

every single heat action plan. And significant chunk related to do's and don'ts Which means the person behavioral change is actually at the core of every heat action. Plan has a large chunk of it devoted to those do's and don'ts, which means person Behavior change is at the core of not only society's response. But also the state's response to heat all of that is just a recognition that heat is now surpassing the personal deputation capacity of an

individual. And therefore the state needs to intervene the corrective action, but there's a lot that still happening in the personal realm, but languid air, Heats a bit like that, right leg. If you can afford air conditioning, you have an air-conditioned house. But if you can't afford it, then what really do you do, right? Because how do you go around that aspect of it? Because like you mentioned, the financing is a major point, right? And who foods that bill finally

I think. Yeah, it's very similar to are in the is that I think there's going to be a section of Rich well-heeled. Well, informed society, that sort of blocks themselves or from the environment. And that's a good thing. That's a good thing. That's not a bad thing, every person needs to have protection, right? And similarly, with the air conditioners, let's hear it's already here. I intend in terms of AC sales, the National Grid is now actually thinking about AC uses like a big driver.

Be consumption, which is not the case, like 10 years ago. If you read the papers, that's not what we were thinking about. So that is here and I think the trajectory is going to be very much a see dominated, but the problem there is it's going to increase India's emissions which will just increase heat down the line. So is this permanent death spiral of ecu's? Because creating heat and then use more and it's a problem for the rest of the world.

Also, of course. And then there's the The hfcs the gases are used in the ACs, which have a significantly higher warming potential than carbon dioxide. I don't think you can step away from Air Conditioning use. I don't think it's right. I think we really need to figure out how to make air conditioning more renewable friendly, make their hfcs less warming. And make it more energy efficient, but that's only one part of it.

There are all sorts of very interesting Solutions out there, but a lot of them like, in the mitigation space, a lot of them experimental not been scaled. So on so forth and not all of this is cheap, right? Even if you're saying take, he's he's everywhere that it's not like a lot of this country can't afford that AC everyday kind of thing when you do when I was saying, you know, plug it into the Renewables.

And if you think about some sort of storage option because you can't have the entire country running a series at night, you really need significant amounts of Technology, you need Innovation. I think you'll also need tech transfers from companies that are currently leading that are not based in India and making that available cheaply and some level of the global compact round technology transfer show.

Should be directed at cooling. Specifically, if you can bring down costs enough, And if you can make sure it's sustainable, then it can occupy a chunk of the cooling needs of the country without destroying personal wallets and the atmosphere simultaneously. Right. I'm only saying this because it feels like this is almost inevitable that this would be an air conditioning LED response.

It is aspirational, it is an incredibly hot country and it makes such a huge difference to your lived reality and gives you energy. During the day and sleep at all of those things. And especially when kids are involved every parent, if they can afford, it will do this, right? So there has to be a concern of effort in bringing the cost down and making the technology more sustainable. And then building all of these

other Solutions into it as well. I feel like there has to be a balancing act but with heat rising. One thing that we noticed is in every city You hitting new Peaks chain, nice reporting up temperatures. It has never seen in the bud, which started the heat action plan, complains that it's not effective anymore. How much could this affect? How our cities are as in. You, spoke about how the GDP itself could potentially fall with this. Could you talk about that

aspect? I think the two questions in that. The first is the broader economic ramifications of this. And in terms of how cities function I think we're now getting enough evidence to suggest that we significant drops in labor productivity. I so this is ILO study that tries to locate losses in labor productivity which says somewhere in the mid 90s we were losing about 4.3 percent of working hours to heat. Now it's at five point eight percent by 2030.

I think they suggest on a very low conservative emissions pathway and it'll increase over time. agriculture is a different story because They suggested over nine percent of agricultural. Labor laws will be lost by 2030 so it affects cities and agriculture slightly differently, but it will affect both very badly. I think it's important to remember that if you can't be working, and that's the idea, right?

I think they have established thresholds of when people stop working or forced to stop working.

If you can't stop working, I think the problem is that is start leading to public health problems because So if you can't afford to take out days wage cut, then you end up in a situation where you have to go to the hospital, or was if there's also the second order, question about whether you can stop working, if you want to, if you have an employer, that does not want you to stop working, and does not want to comply with it. 3:48 restriction on work on their construction site.

What does one do? So then there's a question about how much Collective How much state enforcement are these apps actually implementable and enforceable. And also 5.8%, I think will affect some sectors worse than others, right? And some people from Summit communities and some cars in some areas, work in some sectors, more than others, right? So there's a massive Equity problem at the heart of all of

this. The second part, the second answer to your question is also about how does it change, what cities are in towns are I think if you think about heat action plans is imagine a world where these heat action plans and all the other plants around climate adaptation are enforced and financed. The, some of it is you'll have a very very, very different structure and shape to any sort of city or town, right? It means changing how the streets are laid out. Changing what the buildings look

like changing. How many trees that are? Trees. They're changing also, what land uses which is the most political thing. If we want to really prepare for this, I think we have to imagine these things differently. A bunch of incremental changes, I think will lead up to something very different. It's not about restarting, the whole system, but making incremental changes that eventually then lead to a transformational change. And these heat action plans.

All these other plans are actually transformative documents. The question is whether you can build the institutional support for it and tweet the solutions to make sure that effective and all of that. But ultimately, you're looking at a very different country if you take adaptation series, Visually, it would be different. Today's episode was produced by Jay Raj, Singh soon. I moratti and on Vijay Singh for a daily Spotlight.

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