Jeff and Carl report back after watching the new Netflix documentary, Guillermo Vilas: Settling the Score. The Argentine star was a multi-slam winner in the 1970s, yet he never reached the top of the ranking list ... or did he? The film covers one journalist's quest to prove that Vilas deserved to be #1. We discuss the importance of the top ranking, the vagaries of the ranking algorithm, how Elo rates Vilas's peak years, and the ATP's response to Vilas's case for the top spot. We didn't love the...
Dec 09, 2020•49 min
Jeff welcomes guest Steven Blush, author of the recent book Bustin' Balls: World Team Tennis 1974-78: Pro Sports, Pop Culture, and Progressive Politics. We talk about how drastically WTT has changed from the early days, the crucial importance of Billie Jean King and the 1973 Battle of the Sexes, and how WTT fit into the 1970s cultural milieu. As Steven tells it, the original WTT was revolutionary, even "proto-woke," with a place for everyone, setting men and women on equal footing, and welcoming...
Dec 04, 2020•1 hr 3 min
Jeff and Carl celebrate the final match of the ATP season, the Tour Finals championship match between Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem. We discuss Medvedev's tactical savvy and physical versaility, along with over- and under-rated parts of Thiem's game. Also on the agenda: Are Medvedev and Thiem a clear "second group" behind Djokovic and Nadal but ahead of the rest of the pack? Will Medvedev have a better career than Alexander Zverev or Andrey Rublev? What constitutes tactical perfection? How c...
Nov 24, 2020•43 min
Jeff is joined by Carl Bialik and Jeff McFarland, dipping our collective toe into a debate in the tennis coaching world. With rallies short and aggressive, should players be using practice time differently? What types of skills can still be improved, once a player has reached the top? What tactics can a coach teach their charges, and which ones are too deeply ingrained in the physical nature of hitting the shots? Is a 3- or 4-shot rally qualitatively different from a 5- or more-shot rally? How w...
Jan 13, 2020•1 hr 8 min
Jeff is joined by Carl Bialik and Jeff McFarland, trying out a new format for a new year. We dig into the new ATP Cup, considering whether the format is appealing to players and fans, how we should feel about odd matchups between players hundreds of ranking places apart, and--most importantly--what captains should be doing with the stats available to them. We also look at the top of the WTA ranking table, considering whether Ashleigh Barty will continue her reign for another twelve months, or if...
Jan 06, 2020•1 hr 6 min
Jeff welcomes guest Joshua Robinson (@joshrobinson23), European sports reporter for the Wall Street Journal and co-author of the book The Club: How the English Premier League Became the Wildest, Richest, Most Disruptive Force in Sports. We hear from Josh in between his trips to the Gulf, just back from the boxing prize-fight at Diriyah Arena, where the first professional tennis tournament was played in Saudi Arabia. We talk about why oil-rich states use athletic spectacles to "sportswash" their ...
Dec 16, 2019•50 min
Jeff chats with Martin Ingram (@xenophar), a PhD student in statistics and author of a recent academic paper presenting a new approach to predicting tennis match outcomes. We talk about his model, what makes it different from other common approaches to match prediction such as Elo, and the simplifying assumptions that make it possible. Martin explains the benefits of a technique that allows to incorporate the effects of surface and even specific tournaments, while considering what data we might ...
Dec 10, 2019•1 hr 5 min
Jeff talks with Paul Timmons (@PaulT_Tennis), author of the My Tennis Adventures blog, about the failures of the ITF to provide a logical structure for up-and-coming players. We cover the gender inequality that makes it much more difficult for women to make a living at the equivalent of the ATP Challenger level, the federations that centralize when they should be localizing, and the inevitability of match-fixing when live data provides so much of the sport's revenue. We also touch on several up-...
Dec 02, 2019•1 hr 5 min
Jeff is joined by Peter Wetz (@sPETEcore), making his third appearance on the show. Peter and Jeff take a deep dive into the first edition of the new Davis Cup Finals, talking about Rafael Nadal's dominance in both singles and doubles, the surprise heroics of Vasek Pospisil, and why the #2 singles players may be the key to a side's success. We also take a close look at the format, which despite some obvious flaws, gave us a week of gripping tennis.
Nov 25, 2019•1 hr 16 min
Jeff chats with guest Erik Jonsson (@erktennis), of Tennisportalen and Sourcepodden, about last week's ATP NextGen Finals, which included up-and-coming Swedish star Mikael Ymer. We talk about the stunning rise of Jannik Sinner, the progress shown by Alex De Minaur, and we consider the advantages and disadvantages of a whole slew of the rule innovations that are employed at the NextGen event in Milan. We also delve into Mikael Ymer's potential, whether older brother Elias could still become a top...
Nov 10, 2019•1 hr 5 min
Jeff and Carl review the memorable US Open men's final, featuring a resurgent Daniil Medvedev and a resilient Rafael Nadal, both of whom emptied their tactical toolboxes in Sunday's five-hour marathon. We cover Nadal's path to the all-time grand slam lead, whether Medvedev can become the tallest #1 of all time, and whether fellow first-time semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini is in the same league as the Russian. On the women's final, we consider whether Serena Williams offered a fair assessment of ...
Sep 09, 2019•1 hr 10 min
Jeff and Carl start by previewing the new Tennis Abstract player pages, which you can expect to see roll out over the next few days. Look forward to tons of new stats, plus new ways of looking at traditional numbers. Most of the episode is devoted to our US Open preview. We consider much Novak Djokovic's chances are hurt by the draw, in particular his likelihood of facing Daniil Medvedev again in the quarter-finals. We highlight some notable early-round matches in both the men's and women's draw...
Aug 25, 2019•1 hr 4 min
Jeff and Carl resume last week's conversation about Daniil Medvedev's tactical choices, now that he took down Novak Djokovic with big second serving en route to his first Masters title. We also consider whether Medvedev's generation is more aggressive than the ones that came before, notwithstanding the Russian's predilection for 30-stroke rallies. We also consider the decisions that led to a best-ever title for Madison Keys, a player who thrives with high-risk, powerful shotmaking, but dialed th...
Aug 19, 2019•1 hr 3 min
Jeff and Carl dig into the unique tactical approach of fast-rising Daniil Medvedev, who reached the Montreal final last week but failed to make a dent against Rafael Nadal. We consider the importance of point-finishing skills, the declining role of surface speed, as well as Bianca Andreescu's sudden return to the top of the women's field.
Aug 12, 2019•1 hr
Jeff and Carl discuss the awkward position of World Team Tennis, which is loaded with stars but has a hard time succeeding outside the structure of the tennis tours. On court, they look at the spectacular serving performance of sub-six-foot Alex de Minaur, another disappointing loss for Alexander Zverev, and a shock comeback from Cedrik-Marcel Stebe.
Jul 29, 2019•1 hr 2 min
Jeff is joined by guest co-host Jeff McFarland this week, and the two Jeffs take an analytical dive into the tennis institution, looking at who deserves to be there, who doesn't, and how we ought to decide. We also discuss Jeff M's work on various ways to quantify career accomplishments.
Jul 22, 2019•1 hr 8 min
Jeff and Carl attack the five-hour Djokovic-Federer men's final from all sorts of angles, including Novak's excellence on key points, Fed's surprisingly decent backhand, and the first, awkward tiebreak at 12 games all. We also question how much of the lopsided women's final result could be attributed to Halep peaking, and how much to an off-day for Serena Williams.
Jul 14, 2019•1 hr 6 min
Jeff and Carl recap the first week of Wimbledon, with a focus on the oustanding debut of 15-year-old Cori Gauff. We also talk Kyrgios-Nadal, Murray-Serena doubles, the possibly slower surface, and Raonic the decent returner. We also offer forecasts for each of the 16 fourth-round matches, along with Elo- and market-based predictions for each one.
Jul 07, 2019•1 hr 1 min
Jeff and Carl do a deep dive into whether there is still a place for serve-and-volley tennis in today's game, especially for the most dominant servers. They cover the highlights of several events the week before Wimbledon, starting with the big Pliskova-Kerber WTA final and the all-American ATP title match in Eastbourne, and weigh how this week's winners are likely to fare in the big event at the All England Club.
Jun 30, 2019•1 hr 9 min
Jeff and Carl resume a discussion about the potential value of unlimited in-match coaching, and check in on Andy Murray's surprisingly successful doubles comeback. They also do some Wimbledon forecasting, picking Novak Djokovic and new WTA No. 1 Ashleigh Barty as the favorites, amid crowded fields of marginal contenders.
Jun 24, 2019•59 min
Jeff and Carl wonder about how clay-court breakthrough star Matteo Berrettini transferred his winning ways to grass, with a debut title on that surface in Stuttgart. We also wander through a long list of other topics, including Andy Murray's return to the doubles court, the Herbert-Mahut split, the multi-surface improvisation in Nottingham, and the US Open's new coaching rule.
Jun 17, 2019•1 hr 4 min
Jeff and Carl celebrate the breakthrough of Ashleigh Barty by discussing what sets her game apart, what might be working for her on clay, and what her future holds. We mark Rafael Nadal's 12th Roland Garros title with a (futile) search for tennis achievements that compare to Rafa's French Open dominance. Finally, we consider whether the best tennis players are the best at anything in particular, and whether stats on grand slam websites are anything more than a marketing exercise.
Jun 10, 2019•1 hr 4 min
Jeff and Carl come up with a bonus episode to preview the men's and women's semi-finals at Roland Garros. We discuss the unending parade of upsets that has provided us a women's final four without a single grand slam finalist, as well as the star-studded men's quartet, including the first Federer-Nadal encounter on clay in six years.
Jun 06, 2019•58 min
Jeff and Carl go through the quarter-final lineups for both men and women at this year's French Open. Nadal remains a favorite, Halep faces another newbie, and we offer uncertain forecasts for the lot. We also discuss the spectator experience at Roland Garros, including what sets the tournament apart from the other grand slams.
Jun 03, 2019•1 hr 5 min
Jeff and Carl recap the ATP/WTA joint event in Rome, where Rafael Nadal got his mojo back, winning his ninth title with a decisive final-round victory over Novak Djokovic. A less-polished clay-court performer, Karolina Pliskova, took the women's title, and we explain why her game may be more clay-friendly than you think. Also: Nick Kyrgios wants attention, and we give him some.
May 20, 2019•1 hr 4 min
Jeff and Carl struggle to draw conclusions from Rafael Nadal's latest surprise loss in Madrid, as the King of Clay has no titles in 2019, but his track record still suggests he's the favorite (or close) at Roland Garros. We also cover the continued late blooming of Kiki Bertens, the surprise relevance of Roger Federer, and the abysmal doubles record of Marco Cecchinato.
May 13, 2019•1 hr 2 min
Jeff and Carl delve into the little-known group of dirt-ballers, including Garin, Matteo Berrettini, and Guido Pella, who are piling up the clay-court wins in 2019, while former great David Ferrer is calling time on his outstanding career.
May 06, 2019•1 hr 3 min
Jeff and Carl re-evaluate Rafael Nadal's status as clay-court favorite after his semi-final loss to Dominic Thiem in Barcelona. We also consider what Daniil Medvedev is doing right, even if it didn't work against Thiem. Finally, we dive into the muck that is tennis's typically incoherent response to Justin Gimelstob's assault case.
Apr 29, 2019•1 hr 12 min
Jeff and Carl recap the Monte Carlo Masters and try to make sense of Rafael Nadal's semi-final loss to Fabio Fognini. We discuss how seriously to take the early exits of Nadal and Djokovic, as well as Fognini's future. We also cover the Fed Cup final four and consider whether the women's event should undergo a radical change next year to match the Davis Cup.
Apr 22, 2019•1 hr 9 min
Jeff and Carl review a week's worth of ATP and WTA results, starting with Christian Garin and Casper Ruud, the dirtballers who contested the Houston final. They consider the decline of clay-court specialization, and the more aggressive returning style favored by up-and-coming women's stars such as Amanda Anisimova. Finally, they discuss Jeff's recent findings about Caroline Wozniacki's extremely predictable serves.
Apr 15, 2019•1 hr 2 min
