War Plans Leak: A Rift in US-Israel Trust? | EYES ON PODCAST

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now is not the main story. The main story is the fact that news of such an attack was leaked to number one and number two, that the US administration is staying or not actually when I say that, not publicly, but that they are that you know, they are confident that it's will not attack either nuclear facilities or Iran's oil infrastructure or reserves, which were the two, you know, the two big questions, because we didn't want a global economy to be sent down the toilet, and also you know,

the obvious escalatory ramifications with going after nuclear facilities. Now, whether we changed metna Who's mind remains to be seen. In other words, whether this was really a mind change, or whether he'd already resolved to do what he's going to do and avoid those two things, or who knows whether the you know, the extreme right within Israel will still sway him into taking stronger action, although that does,

you know, admittedly seem unlikely. So so one, you know, I suppose, I mean, it's so difficult when you are tracing the cause and effect in this type of thing, and I'm not trying to do so by mentioning the his bolodrone attack that exploded near Netnil Who's home on the nineteenth. He's got like a country home out in Caesar, a very nice place, and you know it, neither he nor his wife, no members of his family were home. The blaster did hit the house, calls damage, no casualties.

But he takes these things. He takes these things very personally. And there was an incident back in twenty nineteen when he was he was talking to an audience and an attack by a rocket attack by I think it was Palestine in the Islamic Jihad. Yes, it was definitely interrupted this political rally and he had been rushed off the

stage by his bodyguards. And the photographs were in Israeli. Okay, now, you know a lot of people would think, okay, that's that's kind of cool as leader of the country being shown also to share the same dangers as their people.

But this isn't what who wants. He doesn't want to share the same dangers, and he found those, you know, the pictures back then very humiliating and and apparently he you know, he drove to the headquarters they carry at the headquarters of the Israeli Defense Ministry and ordered the killing of Islamic jihad leader Bajo Abu al Atta right twenty nineteen. So you know, my point is he makes

decisions reflexibly based on on frets to himself personally. So let's not discount that that attack, you know, and the

effect of that attack. That having been said that, you know, these mysterious Israeli and American security sources who keep discussing things in sidebars to the media are apparently saying that there is a US Israeli understanding it's been reached, promising to reward Israel from refraining from attacking Iran soy industry and nuclear power infrastructure, and in return, the conversation is going to include lifting US suspension of certain arms and

ammunition shipments to Israel and even accelerating their supply right to include the famous D nine bulldozer, which has been a mainstay of Israeli operations in Gata. Indeed, you know the D Nines, the D nine. As anyone has been involved in an urban fight in the last two decades, the D nine will tell you. Anyone will tell you it's worth its weight in gold. It's like a combat bulldozer, and it has multiple uses, and it is in many ways more useful than it tank that in those environments.

The only thing that lacks, of course, is a significant direct fire ability capability. But now that the you know, there's so many ways to protect such a thing, especially in an environment like Garza.

depots and other strategic targets and Yemen. Cynics might say, for what it's worth, you know, for all the good that has done to date, but there is a feeling now that those are becoming in recently effectives as US intelligence perhaps gets get gets a little more acute, you know, on a topic that we have discussed here and and the US has already you know. The last strike we did was this on the sixteenth, I think too, and

it was yeah, that's right. And then they went off for the major Hoofy weapons depot and by all accounts was effective. So we shall see and maybe I should not be a synic about our ability to suppress the Hoofees.

was yeah. So those two reasons and then the third reason, of course, is that if you're a B two pilot, you're watching your career go down the ship it because all your compadres are, you know, are getting plenty of trigger time or togal time or whatever they call it in the Air Force. And you know, even even the drone dudes you know in NALYS are are getting PTSD and stuff and medals galore, whereas the B two guys are stuck in that way where they's stuck in that base.

and fad IS is also a big deal. You know, the Israelis, their their three tier air defense system is effective but not effective enough to you know, to stand against another onslaught, perhaps like the one that aren't sent by itself. All right, Israel knows it's never going to have to do that by itself. But nevertheless, you know, I don't everyone's aware that perhaps it has not seen its full saturation where there is an external attack and

then you have two internal groups. Has Bono in her mass attacking Israel at the same time, a possibility that until recently seemed very likely but now seems increasingly unlikely because neither her mask nor his Bolla is probably capable of launching physically capable launching such an attack in Iran just doesn't you know, there's nothing to benefit Iran by doing so. And if you look at all of the rhetoric coming out of Tehran now, it is de escalatory.

You know, that's the last thing Iran wants is to go to war right now. So the fad battery, yeah, symbolic, but on the other hand, it does it really does bolster an element of what the Israeli is used to be concerned about, being one of their critical vulnerabilities, the defense they're vulnerability to being overwhelmed by a mass simultaneous attack. So what are the Israelis going to attack?

the current the stick. The current stick's always been something that we use with effective diplomas, seeing we know, persuasion by itself doesn't matter at all, and it matters doesn't count much at all, especially arguably as the United States that our position in the world stage becomes some would say less prominent, right, and we are no longer the indispensable ally to Israel that we thought we once were.

You know, I think Israeli is our son who think, hey, we can do this by ourselves, and especially now with its leak, you know, we we the United States Alliance may does seem, especially the right wing Israelis as more of a liability than a help. And so I suppose under the principle of striking while the iron is hot, Secretary of State Blinker Anthony Blinkin arrived in Israel yesterday

morning and his first stop in the regional tour. But clearly he's there to not just monitor Israeli preparation for a possible tag, but but but to limit its extent. And you know, he's probably arguing that, you know, having killed the heads of both Iran's main range regional proxies in recent weeks, his Bolla Chief Israela and hermas Had yahwah Simha, the parts are now clear for Israel to reach arrangements ending the war on all fronts. So that's

what Israel wants to do, you know. So so in a sense, I hate say the region has reached this decision point or a historic crossroads. But in the sense it has you know, I mean, according to you know, Israeli assessments, Hasbala wants to win the war, all right, not even then, you know, even in two thousand and six that that message was that they weren't getting such a clear message. But they've now been dealt the worst blow in their history. Uh and and and you know

they're exhausted. Iran wants to end it, as I pointed out.

until hisbolla and hamas are crushed to a pole. And this week on Monday, there was a rally attended by Benavie and other Knesset members, all right Ben gaver In, particularly as a Cabinet member, calling for the rebuilding of Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, which is ral dismantled in two thousand and five, in other words, saying, hey, look now we've purched this whole area, let's move back in.

So and you can't dismiss yeah. I mean, these people were once a fringe movement within Israeli society, but no longer. And these kind of meglemannic ambitions you're hearing among your mainstream politicians like Bendevere, like becos He other guy's Motridge. And you know, we keep using those two names, but they represent a sizeable, an influential part of his Rali politics. And then and then you add to that, okay, so you know Blncoln's already out there, you add to that

US mediator Amos Hogstein. Okay, he's now on the ground trying to engineer a deal between Israel and Hezbolla, all right, and you know, nothing not with a run or anything. But he's focusing specifically in the local area. And you know, he's saying that that there needs to be a new mechanism to enforce you and Resolution seventeen oh one, which ended the two thousand and six war, which everyone realizes there needs to be, But the question is who can

enforce that and is it enforceable? Okay, And we've talked about a little bit that before. Now for the first time this is from you know, kind of his perspective. I think now for the first time, the Lebanese government no longer has the buller constrictor of Hesbala around its neck, and it can make policy decisions such as enforcing and internationally agreed mandate without opposition. Okay. That's how the US is thinking. However, on the ground, a little bit different. Okay.

So the seventeen oh one resolution calls for all aren't militias to be pulled back north of the Litani River, and okay, that makes sense, all right, But there's a couple of couple of reasons why that alone, it's going to be hard to enforce, and even if they do enforce, it's not going to be particularly in effective. Okay, effective Number one is there, you know, the the rank and file of Hasboala isn't heavily embedded in the towns and

villain is south of Latani. In other words, you know, you could there are families whose husband and brothers within that family, all the male members are part of his Bolla, right and you know they may do other things that may not be a full time job, but they are his Boller fighters and for number of them, it is a full time job, right. So it's more than just moving a militia north. You know, when you have an

organization like that heavily embedded in the local community. And number two, you know even I mean obviously with ranges of the rockets and missiles that his Bolla has now, most of the long range rockets, those that are surviving are up north are in the par valley or vicinity of Bay Route. They're not south of the Latani rivers. So simply moving people, militias weapons is not going to work.

But what might work is a concerted attempt effort to disarm, you know, to make disarmed people out of the Latani River, right, so leave in place, but disarmed, Yeah, I just don't see how they have any other option to leave them in place. You know, what are you gonna do. You're gonna try to drive the whole population north of the

Latani River. And that's not what the resolution says, you know, but but uh, I mean nevertheless, okay that that's kind of my Sinicis and the Israelis are still saying we need an arrangement that moves his baller north of the Tani River and strengthens the Lebanese central government because if if seventeen or one is not enforced, then you know, the Israelis will remain there to to do so, you know, arguably, although they don't want to obviously, they don't want to

remain there, and then so so his Bolla. But you know, the advantage though, for the side of of peace. I guess the advantage here is that his Boller, as I said, does seen now to want to want to respine, right obviously, and so you know, if there's any time to do this, it is now. And at the same time, with Hermas, there's an opportunity to renew negotiations for a deal. There's you know, people forget, well not not families of hostages,

but in the States it is sometimes forgot. And there is still some one hundred and so hostages in Gaza, right, haven't been recovered one hundred and five I think it is, And so negotiations to freedom and Holpy the fighting in

Gaza is still a priority. And as I mentioned earlier, you know, now there's been this shift in the balance of power within Hamas since Saintmar's killing that passes the baton to Harmas is exiled political leadership, which, as I've said, is is far more in a far more moderate And then the last time you mentioned the Egyptians, right, and you know, as being kind of unhelpful, Well, you know, I think a lot of Israelis might agree with you.

But but interestingly enough, so the Egyptians had a long time a long time head of their intelligence and this is quite unusual in any intelligence service, perhaps except for Western you know, c I A for an intelligence chief

to almost have kind of rock star status. But the but but a basque Kmal did you know he was he was very he was very well, he was feared and feared and revered I suppose within certain circles in unless a basque kamal, and he's well known to the Israelis and and they certainly they could negotiate with him, but there was always a feeling that he, you know, he was keeping some cards on the side and not giving you know, a full full court press to Israeli

harmss negotiations. Well, his replacements a guy named Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, unknown quantity, but certainly determined to prove himself and seems, you know, for him, the perhaps the sign of success would be for the negotiations to go ahead, and it would be just kind of great feather in his cap if he could make that happen. So the conditions are ripening for for that to be a peace settlement. That's not to say that there will be one.

that leak, it's nothing really to see, you know. But but nevertheless the leak itself is significant, I mean top secret information leak on purpose and and what so what what this stuff shows and it looks you know, the if you're following this on on Twitter, you know, there's there's a a school of thought and Twitter, right, an informed school of thought that thinks that this came from

the office of the Secretary of Defense himself. You can't prove that obviously at this stage, because actually, this is this is stuff that comes from what am I thinking at Jason, the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, right, So it's yeah, it's yeah to which analyzes satellite imagery and also you know, the the NSA, which which does communications intercepts. So it's coming from more than one. It's coming from two agencies.

So the leak is likely to have been more central, but that's not to say that, you know, it could have come through any number of hands as it was passed into IST's office.

They would want to know who had access to the documents all the way up the chain, who had the most who has the most likelyhood of wanting to leak something like this, whether it's you know, to derail it for monetary gain, stuff like that. So there's definitely an active counterintelligence investigation going on and we're just gonna have to wait to see. But at the end of the day, when this first happened, you know, people got together and said, what is the damage to Israel here and.

from the hack. But the FBI is saying not the FI but but at least, you know, official statements are now saying that that it was not it was most likely not a hack.

and National Guard. So you could say, well, what what has that got to do with policy or anything? That has everything to do with policy or it has because you know, we need to know is a key part of class sharing classified information, and there was just you know, when you trace all this, there was just there's no way that this dude needed to know that stuff. And so if this is you know, and I don't know,

that may have been a local policy. It may have been just a local command of being an idiot and not adhering to national security policy, but definitely definitely of you know, of violation and it and it had outsized ramifications. You know, a junior dude in his early.

And that's like one oh one when you first start these jobs, is lock your computer screen, put all your classified away before you leave your desk.

risky way to do it. You know, if you're going around other people's workstations while they go to the head or something, and I'm trying to pull ship it I just don't buy that. Yeah, I think it was just the unit fucked up and they and they they just didn't have enough kohunas to admit it.

it is. And it's not good to be embarrassed as a nation, right, and we're going to get comments about that, you know, No, you know, arguably we shouldn't be embarrassed, you know, I mean, these things happen, and they happened because we United States trying to do the right thing in the area. I'm sounding very facile here. I realize before long I'm going to be accused of being a patriot.

yet in Russia preparing to go to Ukraine. Well, I think we talked about this before, right that there were multiple newspaper reports, most notably in the Wall Street Journal, that ten to twelve thousand North Korean troops were on their way to Russia to fight on the side of Russia in the Ukraine conflict. And that news brought much speculation among you know, think tanks, r US about the quality of these troops, et cetera, et cetera. General consensus being, hey,

this is something to worry about because sheer numbers. Okay, Number two, North Korea is likely to send their best, okay, out of a million man army. So even if you know the majority are mal nourish, then illiterate peasants the you know, they the ones they send overseas are likely

to have been prepared for this. The third is that they're definitely sending their special forces, right, And anyone who's studied the Korean peninsular problem knows that North Korean special forces, while you know, probably not certainly not you know near pier, are a force to be reckoned with you and in twelve thousands a lot of dudes to pour into conflict like that. So this is yeah, this is definitely a concern. But the United States government said, and we've heard nothing

about this either to support or deny it. Well, in the last day yesterday, the North Korean intelligence i mean no North sorry, South Korean National Intelligence Service director it doesn't matter his name, but Cho Tiyon right said that there were already fifteen hundred North Korean troops in Russia. He didn't specify where, but if you look on Twitter,

there is some geolocation work that shows exactly where. It means nothing to me, obviously, you know it's fairly near the Ukrainian border, but it's not in Ukraine yet, So fifteen hundred troops already there and no, I'm sorry, three thousand already there. It was initial fifteen hundred, other three thousand, and they're expecting a total of ten thousand by December.

All right, so in the next six weeks. Now, what geolocation was suggesting was that these guys were all arriving in one place and then being distributed to multiple military bases for training. But they are, you know, they haven't been deployed into battle yet, so they are being they're going through some kind of training with Russian military instructors, you know. In the Russian military blog asphere confirms that.

Interestingly enough, there's a comment here. There was a comment somewhere about the Russians instructors about the troops, saying that, you know, they're surprisingly good quality troops. This could just be propaganda, but yeah, and that you know, they're eager to get into the fight, but nevertheless, they're likely to take massive casualties because they know nothing about modern warfare.

I mean, North Korea has not been at war since the Korean War, right, so this is an interesting development and I think it's though, an indication of kind of the desperation that the Russians have for manpower right now. In addition to the troops, the North Koreans have sent, so apparently, according to South Korea, thirteen thousand containers of artillery, missile and other conventional arms to Russia since since August of last year. So that's a lot of that's a

lot of freight. Thirteen thousand. You know, it doesn't say what size can do is these arms, but if those you know, regardless of these are like ah airlift airlifts, I mean a single platform airlift, then that is a hell of a lot in just a Yeah, I.

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the explosion in Beirute on October. It was the twenty third, I believe, nineteen nineteen eighty three, so it had just happened. And the very next day, you know, the decisions made to go into the Grenada using a combined the Joint Force, my joint force, involving Army rangers, special forces, and of course the Marines, eighth Marines. Those of you who have seen that iconic movie Heartbreak Ridge will know the story

in its entirety. But you know, an important part of Vergin Fury was we learned how fucked up we are when we do joint operations. You know, I mean, urgent fury was like a massive exercise. It was you know, I know urgent Fury veterans, so it will be upset at me saying this, but it wasn't combat. It was it was a massive exercise, and we didn't do well. We really didn't. We struggled everything, you know, even in the marine, or we struggled with air ground coordination, which

we prize ourselves on. You know, there's that iconic, that probably apocryphal story about you know, a forward air controller trying to to call in and strike using a payphone. Whether or not that is true, it's it's issues that you know that that we had there on the ground. There were fratracide issues, there were you know, all kinds of stuff we learned that we needed, we needed more jointness. Uh and and you know, at the tacticle level, we learned that we were as good as we as we

wanted to be, well thought we were anyway. So the legacy of urgent fury and that brings us nicely to a closing time, Fellas, unless unless you have any alevis or questions.