¶ Intro / Opening
Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick Moloy Jason Lines on the mich Com Tacos. Guys, do us a favorite, don't forget to like and subscribe if you were listening to us on audio, subscribe and rate five stars there and yeah, that's the bit of housekeeping. Just go ahead and do that, don't it won't hurt And tell a friend. A lot happening as usual. First thing, the kickoff is a couple of days ago, we paused our weapons shipments, some of that
were already in transit heading to Ukraine. That's caused a huge stir. There was some word that the reason why we were doing that was because we were worried about our own stock piles. An NBC report came out yesterday that said that's not the case, and hex Seth's paused it anyway. Uh, let's start there because there's a lot more going on obviously, see Russia's pound in Ukraine with drones and cruise missiles. Way more than it seems, way
more than usual, to be honest. Yeah, where you guys at with the pause and the arm shipments.
Yeah, well, first of all, I hope you guys had a good Independence Day. Did a lot of motivational American stuff myself. And to start a positive note, I would highlight didn't get a lot of coverage, but the NATO summit that was at the Hague, which will lead into my comments online Ukrainian pause was very positive.
Right.
So, and you got to give the president some credit. He's the one that's been pushing so hard to get our NATO allies, not just him, every president since going back to when Europe decided to abdicate their security conserves the United States, so many presidents, But give President Trump's some credit. They're out now agreeing to five that's a substantial increase, right. Just to give you an example, I
think I was talking to somebody yesterday. Germany's buying a thousand new main battle tanks, twenty five hundred infanty fighting vehicles, and creating six new combat brigades new. Right, that's just one example. Now, I'm sure some of our friends out there and the audience are going, well, isn't that because Russia invaded Ukraine?
Yet?
Probably it has a lot to do with it as well. So it's not just the American influence, but I think that's important to point out five percent is considerable. Those that aren't doing it should step up. But there's also there was also an ironclad re affirmation of Article five of NATO, which means you fight one of us, you fight all of us. That was important for our NATO allies to hear. There was another affirmation that eventually the
Ukraine will end up in NATO. There was a I think creation of the NATO Assistance to Ukraine entity, which is awesome. My son's out there doing that. As far as the US assistance to Ukraine with the unit, and there was and there was a lot of I think significant steps towards the development of a NATO that's a functional military fighting force.
Anyway, we could.
Talk a lot more about that, but I just wanted to highlight that before we get into I don't know what we're thinking about pausing. This is stuff that was already approved and in the pipeline.
By the way, there wasn't some of the stuff in Poland and stuff like in.
Poland, Yeah, in Poland. Like now there's reports, I don't know if it's true that this was uniliterally decided in the Pentagon. In my experience having been in, you know, on the Pentagon. This would never have happened in a normal situation. This is a huge decision to cut off critical defensive offensive included but defensive munitions to an ally.
Who's in a war.
That would at least have gone through the policy coordination process where other people would have an opportunity to chime in on why that's a terrible idea. And this would be a decision by the President of the United States. I mean, this isn't This isn't something that would be decided on the datas d level for example, what I was, I mean, this is, this is this is getting kicked up to the to the president. So I don't understand why it was done. I think it needs to be
turned back on immediately. I'm sure there's some senators and representatives on both sides of the isle that want answers. This is and this was already approved. It's in the US interest to continue and to increase the support we give to Ukraine, not not charity but actual our national
security interest. Or maybe we'll talk about it today, but we just proved it one trillion dollar basic defense annual budget, so we have the capacity to do this American companies benefit from this, our allies and partners benefited from this, and cutting it off it's just going to inspire President Putin to continue the war, believing that he has the US and a place that is more beneficial to him than potentially even her. So that's all.
That's what I got to say about that.
I think Jay, you listened to back and forth, so maybe you have some of the opposing side.
Yeah, it was an interview on PBS. I do not
¶ Debate on Military Support and Strategy
remember the two ladies' names, but one was they're both think tanks, but one was for the pause, one was against the one who was for She made the argument that this isn't just a pause, it's not a complete halt. I guess, tomato, tomato, she believes that. And d I don't know if we can post that the interview in the link somewhere so people.
I'm gonna actually say it's Kimberly Keith Kagan the Institute for the Study of War and Jennifer Kavanaugh of Defense Priorities. Yep, I'll throw the link in the description.
Okay, Well, Jennifer Kavanaugh, she was the one who was
for the pause. She kept arguing that this was necessary because we needed to uh focus on war with China, a possible you know, future war with China, and that by continuing to send these arms that we were hamsteringing ourselves and the other lady she uh said, you know, one has nothing to do with the other, and that would actually only give h Russia as well as China and Iran, you know, it would give them pause to say, Okay, you know, they they stand by their allies and they're
willing to do whatever it takes to, you know, to support them. And so it was a it was a really good back and forth to watch, but you know how I feel about it.
So, yeah, well it's good to listen to both sides, right, because yeah, we don't want to just be the I would say on this idea that you know, the eminent war with China over Taiwan. You just said it, Jay, I mean, the more the more you pull out of supporting your allies, the more China would be inspired because they don't think you're gonna We're going to support Taiwan
by looking at how we support Ukraine and China. This is reported out there that China actually was talking to a lot of European countries saying essentially that the same thing. You know that they they view the US's as a as a weakness, you know when it comes to supporting Ukraine, and it's it's going to inspire them and obviously Russia
to just continue this. So if we have a problem keeping up with the manufacturing of these key critical munitions, which isn't just defensive but also upfensive, we need to fix that problem because what if we're in a war right now, If we were in the war right now and we can't even support Ukraine because it's our criticals
thought piles, something's not adding up and something. So they need to do a real assessment with people that are more on the military national security side, let's on the political, and say, if we're this close to critical, then we have dramatically underestimated how we're going to get our munitions if we should go to them. And maybe that's addressed in the new defense budget.
Hope it is.
It is in some part, but I just don't believe that that's actually the case here. I think we can do both. I think we can prepare and send a strong message to China not to screw around with Taiwan or any other entity out there and also support our ally that's currently being attacked after years and years by our other adversary Russia.
Yeah, I mean that, Like that's an interesting argument in terms of like being prepared for China. It's like you could say make the same argument, like why is saidcom going fucking bananas? Saya, cum'sm going bananas for the last four months. I mean, we're bombing the Huthis for a sixty fifty five fifty two days or whatever.
It was, right, and nobody said anything that was a billion dollars worth of munitions.
Yeah, and I was.
I was for taking it to the Huthis, but you can't have it. It's it's just Ukraine. It's just selectively Ukraine. So the same people are talking about transferring B two's and moved to is.
I got I got triggered when I saw that.
Or wringing their hands when it comes to basic defensive munitions to defend themselves against these barrages. When we do have Americans in places in Ukraine, like it's you got to call it for what it is. This is just political and it needs we need to focus more on our national security and interests collectively, not.
Political I mean, since you brought it up, Nick, let's talk about this too, dunce caps of a congressman, bipartisan too,
¶ Congressional Decisions on Military Assets
one's a Republican, one's a Democrat. Who are I guess proposing a bill. They've done it before to other people, where we give over our b twos and mobs to Israel. It's like, bro, there's a reason why we don't have health universal health care. We need to keep our own shit to ourselves, right, the things that no one has not even trying to have strategic bombers like that stealth ones. Yet I saw that and I was like, dude, you're a congressman, man, like, make that count. Make it fucking
count for your constituents. You think your constituents give a flying fuck that we give b twos to to uh Israel? Come on, make it. You know I can say the same thing about Lindsay Graham too. Do you think anybody in South Carolina gives a shit about what's going on in Iran?
No?
I mean, let's be real, like, you have your first and foremost job. I feel like is as a congress person, we're getting sidetracked. And I'm sorry to everybody, but you're gonna have to get over it now, you guys, the audience is like doing what you got to do for your district or your state. It's crazy to me, how like there's only how many You're thirty five guys and girls, right, that's out of three hundred and forty million people. You're the leaders of the land and nate number of you
take your job seriously. All right, I'm off my soapbox now you got.
No. I mean, there's really not much I say. I mean, yeah, yeah, it's I agree. I mean, there are more pressing things to worry about. As a congress person. It's a representative, you know whatever, too close to home to be uh, you know, proposing something like that, you know, or someone's face on Mount Rushmore or whatever it is. You know, there are more important things. Now, someone could come back and say, well, you just made our point about Ukraine.
There's things too close to home. Well one directly affects things close to home or could in the future, whereas us giving Israel B two's it's not going.
To help us at all.
So we want to control the assets and nobody else in the world, as I mean, that's that's where I come down. So you know, and I supported the strikes, So I think the US should be able to take the strikes if if it's needed for our own security. If it's not needed for our own security, why would we you know, why would we then give it to somebody else whoul then decide what?
Yeah, what if it's not now not in our interest?
I don't know.
I mean, we can see a scenario where we don't want to see the war kickback off, or you know, I mean, there's a lot of scenarios where the US would would want to have the control of the very assets that nobody else has to be able to make our own decisions. So and that's not a slight against Israel. It's not a slide against any it's it's you know, I mean, it.
Was the British or the French or anybody, Yeah, anyone that's ours.
You know.
It's like your buddy's like, hey, let me borrow your car. I know, damn that drive you give me gas money, I'll drive you, but you ain't taking my car, you know.
Yep, that's right.
Yeah, let me get your one out of nineteen car that's worth a billion dollars that nobody has to maybe bomb a country whenever we feel like like no, no, no, we dictate what happens. Right, We're the United States, for God's sake. I mean I sound like a you know, I'm on the board of Halliburton. But you know, but at the same point, we have these things, why give them up? Like here you go, no problem, laissez faire that call Blanche, enjoy.
Yourself, Lions' shift man, think about.
It, right, I mean, we gave you Ron, you know, at fourteen's and their first new clear reactor, you know. And we're not exactly writing each other Christmas cards right now, Nope, and we'll be talking about it just a round out going back to Ukraine and Russia. This is more of
¶ Trump's Communication with Putin
like I guess, like just an odd thing from a dummy like me that looks at it from the outside. There were reports that Zelenski and Trump were going to have a phone call, and then all of a sudden, the day before Putin and Trump had a phone call. There wasn't much readout on what went down on the phone call, but it was the day before he talked to Zelenski. And this is after the pause and the weapons. Uh. I just don't get it, Like why does Trump need to feel the need to have to talk to Putin
every time he talks to Zelenski. Pohon's not our buddy.
Definitely not a buddy.
I mean, I don't know if I don't know the thought process. Looking at it both ways, I guess President Trump can say that he's trying to get some kind of concessions from pot before we talk to Zelenski. So, but because he came right out of it and said, basically, I got nothing, clearly not interested in ceasefire. And he's clearly not interested in ceasefire. So it's time to pass the Sanctioning Russia Act, sponsored by Senator Graham, Senator Graham
and Blumenthal on the Democratic side. But it's got eighty plus senators, right, so it's a veto proof, Like, I don't know what they're waiting. I really don't. Uh, there's zero interest by Putin to stop this war. He's intensified it. He's bringing in thirty thousand now it's pretty much verified thirty thousand North Korean troops are going to be going.
So he's got he's got allies. They're pumping out ammunition, they're pumping they're sending our own soldiers for Christ's sake, you know, And so we need to keep up the pressure with Ukraine, who's never going to quit. I mean, if you haven't figured that out yet, right, if Putin hasn't figured that out yet, I mean, they're just not gonna quit. They're going to fight all the way to
the end. So that means every life Ukrainian and Russia simply hasn't shown that they have the capacity, military capability, planning anything. So let's hope that that part of these this increase in NATO also translates to an increase in support Ukraine, because I think they're one of the same.
Yeah, I agree with Mick on that.
It seems I'm not in the administration's heads or Trump's head, but it seems like this is his way of saying, Hey, look, I'm addressing both sides. I'm trying to get this thing done.
You know.
It just so happens that I'm talking to Putin first. Now, from an intelligence officer point of view, Mick Will knows as well as I do, one of the biggest things you want to know is what is a world leader thinking, what's in their head?
Where?
From Putin's point of view, he doesn't have to wonder, he doesn't have to send his spies out to know, because by Trump calling him first, he's telling him what he's thinking. I'm sure that they talked about I can't one hundred percent say, but I'm pretty certain they talked about, Hey, what are you going to talk to Zelenski about? And by doing that, now Putin can kind of steer the situation, steer the conversation. You know, you know that makes sense, But you know, what about this?
What about that?
Put things in Trump's head that could now steer the conversation with Zelenski in a way that it wasn't intended, you know, And that's one thing that we learned as intelligence officers is you never let an asset control that the uh uh, the situation, whether that's everything from where you meet to what the conversation, how the conversation goes,
you always steer that. So, I mean, I don't know who he has in his head, if the DNI is talking to him or anybody like that, but to me, it's just a bad idea to talk to Putin first every time. Maybe on certain occasions, depending on what the situation is, what the conversation is going, to be about, but not every time, because now you're also just giving the appearances of let's get it, you're going to defer to Putin first anyway, So you know, why are we even talking.
That's a really interesting point. I mean that, I don't know that anybody's obviously, I don't know if anybody explained that to Potus that you know, we have the ability to psychologically profile key leaders and give you a lot of information that would make you better prepared for any of these conversations. I assume that they have. But that's that's readily available. And Putin is a former KGB spy, right, he knows what this is all his this is his world.
So that's a really interesting point. Hopefully they are taking advantage of that and the president's taking the feedback because if not, I mean this, I'm not saying it's you know, he's manipulating the president, but he's certainly trying.
We know he's trying.
So it would be interesting to see if somebody is actually trying to counter that and even give talking points to president. I think this happen in the past. They could you know, turn the tide so to speak.
Yeah, yeah, because you break that pattern if sorry, I don't mean, but if you you break that pattern of going to Putin all the time and then this next time go right to Zelenski first, Now you might force Putin or his people to reveal something, you know, questions that they might have, which is intel you know about it by saying whoa would you go to him first?
You know for you know, uh, did you tell him this? Did you talk to him about that? You know?
So now we're getting information on what they're thinking, so hopefully somebody is in his ear about it.
Yeah, Jay, I was literally what I was thinking. I was like, doesn't it couldn't it? Couldn't you get more yardage out of Like I'm talking to Zelenskin, you know what, I'm gonna miss a fucking phone call with Putin and let him stew on it a little bit, you know what I mean, like just to fun with him a
little yep. So yeah, great, great point, Jay. I mean, Also, like outside of like from ninety nine, two thousand and two thousand and one, when Putin first came to power, there were some talk about like he's a reformer and stuff like that, but over the last twenty plus years he's clearly shown that he's a manipulative lying I mean, you just even see dmitriy Medvedev like him and Obama had a good relationship right when he was president, even
though Putin was still pulling the strings. But he's got totally fucking batshit. You know. It's like these guys were just always lying essentially right, always trying to manipulate. Yeah, it's wild, like I you know, I mean, there's a reason why I guess Biden didn't take a ton of
poot or any phone calls from Putin. I'm not saying completely ice amount and stuff like that, but you want to make a phone call mean something and get like actual stuff out of it, right, like strategically put it in the right place where it's like, yeah, we got X, Y and Z out of this and it was worth it. Because the more and more phone calls you gotta feel like it just waters down the effect.
There's a reason why.
Go ahead, I was going to say, there's a reason why. Again, going back to training. As intelligence officers, you're it's always emphasized that you do not you do give some a little bit to that you know, to your asset or you know, or to the person you're trying to recruit, but you don't give everything because now they control it.
So we've got to get better at that, you know, by the why we I mean, the administration has to get better at making Putin stew make him sit for a little bit, make him wonder what the hell we were just talking about. You know, have the conversation and then announce it on TV. Let him see it on CNN or Fox News, and then that might force him and his people to give up something that you know that we want to know.
I mean, yeah, like, what else can Putin do right outside of a nuclear weapon? Like, what else can you do to U create? Yeah, ominously civility.
That's that's his his actual point. And that's what I mean, we got to think about that for future warfare. What did Iran do when they were trying to fight Israel? They just launched ballistic missiles into like Tel Aviv? Right, I mean it wasn't even a fate of like, well, we're going after military targets. It was a military target, you know, three miles outside of Tel Aviv. So there you go, right, they're not even trying That's what That's
what Putin's been doing. The whole time they just strike civilians. It goes directly after and strike civilians. They're terror So that's the adversary we're going to face. Those are two of our adversaries if we you know, if God forbid, there is a larger conflict than involves in the US.
You can't get eighty senators to agree on fucking anything, right, I mean, it could seem like, hey, we're fucking serious
¶ Sanctions and Military Support for Ukraine
outside of just military support, right, like sanction them even more, give away their three hundred and twenty five billion to like whatever, whether it's European defence companies or American that are making shells, or patriots or whatever, because like, what else can you fucking do outside of a nuclear rep He's not gonna.
Do that, No, because if he does a nuclear weapon, it might trigger Article five because the radiation fall out it's likely to hit Poland and other NATO countries that surround Ukraine.
It's not like you could contain it.
Right at the end of the day, he wants to be, he wants to be, you know, regime security is paramount for him.
Yeah.
Yeah, if you could, you could unfreeze, and they have been unfreezing, like Canada has I think Japan is free unfrozen some but the big bulks haven't been unfrozen. And I don't really know why they did that. I mean, then you're paying the US industrial base to which will improve our ability to do this right. It will increase capacity, will increase all sorts of things in innovation when it
comes to development these systems. So if you did both of the things you just said, if you did release the funds to support Ukraine periodically, right, changin thirty billion, I don't know, whatever, just to put more pressure on Putin Andy did this section in Russia Act. That's going to send a serious message to Russia. It's going to be beneficial to the United States and Arnado partners and obviously Ukraine.
I got to like, outside of maybe people in the comments would know, like, are is Europe still getting a lot of their gas and oil from Russia? I believe they are. Are they worried that if they did start like giving out changes of that three hundred and twenty five billion, that they would get cut off and stuff?
I mean, I think there's an initiative to go to nuclear I don't know if that could make up I'd defer to the energy experts. But yeah, they to my understanding, I think they've tried to wean themselves off. I think there's other like I heard, you know, through discussions with Middle East friends, that there's going to be some kind of pipeline that might come through Syria that's going to get to Europe. Correct me if I'm wrong people who know.
But that's years away.
Yeah, if it were happened, but it would benefit obviously Sero Syria which needs it. But anyway, the point being it was helped, there's there's initiatives that long term could get Europe, which should have been trying to get off Russian energy the whole time. The idea they got more relying on it was just a huge strategic mistake.
Yeah, so we'll see what goes down. Hopefully they unfreeze the weapons package, you know, weapons that are stuck in Poland just sitting there. It's not even like it wasn't like they're all they're sitting in an American fucking warehouse. They're in Poland like ready to be transferred. So hopefully that happens soon. Moving on to UH, looks likely that there's going to be a cease firing gods of fingers crossed.
¶ Ceasefire Prospects in Gaza
Hamas answered and said that it looks like they're down for it, or at least down to continue to discuss it. I mean, thank god, I hope it's fucking done, frankly, because that situation is an absolute nightmare. And we also have Netna who coming to visit the States, which is exciting. Mick, what are your thoughts?
I think I think you're right. I've been talking a lot of my friends in the Middle East, and it does look like this wouldn't have been Netna Who coming if there wasn't going to be an announcement.
There.
I think the IDF has told him that they've essentially gotten a lot of the objectives they wanted to accomplish. It is a natural point to have at least the start of a ceasefire, and the US proposals sixty days. It's adjusted somewhat, but I do believe now it's ten living in eighteen deceased hostages will come out within that sixty days, and of course the corresponding Palestinian prisoners like
three to one ratio. But most importantly the massive this is what I was told, increase in humanitarian aid, which needs to happen I mean, I mean, I hope. I wish Hamas was eradicated to the last person, but withholding humanitarian assistance from civilians isn't the way to do it ever, so that needs to change. But apparently it is so we might see and which is great, and we should all hope that Hamas is the right thing for the
¶ Humanitarian Aid and the Role of Hamas
Palestinian people, which they haven't done yet, but maybe they'll view it in their own interest because I think there is an offer. I think there's an offer to allow the leadership of a MOSS to depart.
And go somewhere else. You know, maybe we're wrong.
As an old intel dude, I would say, let them go, we'll find them later. Man, we got we got a forever memory. So uh, anything to stop the war and the issues that are the humanitarian crisis that's in the Gaza right now. I just hope that let's hope that Hamas can see see the pathwoard. The issue, of course is Hamas doesn't want to sign some thing that the that that doesn't permanently in the and have the IDF withdraw,
and that's that's the big issue. And the IDF doesn't want or Israel doesn't want to sign on to something because they don't know what ever Moss is gonna do, right and right now there's no suitable or even option to unless maybe private security, and I just don't see that being enough to fill the vacuum of the IDF. Right, So there needs to be some plan, maybe some way to build and train Palestinians that are vetted and trusted
that can provide security for other Palestinians both ways. And you know, but that's that's something needs to be started. Hopefully it can be started in conjunction with the Sea Spire that we can, Like you said, they all hope starts next week.
Yeah. I think I read somewhere the IDEF is controlling about seventy five percent of Gaza. Now, yes, yeah, I don't know. I hope this fucking stops, man, because it's it's a it's seems like it's a fucking nightmare. At least it looks like it's a nightmare. And also, what do we really want contractors there doing complete security for the entire place. I mean, it's not really working out
great as of you know. The other day AP reported that American contractors were shooting at Palestinians and stuff like that today, just now, the Gods of Humanitarian Foundation posted a statement saying that there was an attack on a distribution site. I think a couple of contractors were injured.
On top of the IDF you know from Heratz. IDF was saying they have a green light on fucking shooting essentially people at the eight sites where there are only what four, which, like you've mentioned before, make there should be four hundred. So yeah, I hope this sees fire happens, man, I hope it ends. And uh, you know, we could just fuck a chill out for a little bit and yeah, go smoke commas. Guys in around Iran or guitar, have at it, go nuts, ushah, do what you you know you're actually good at.
And and hopefully with this, I mean we spoke to former very senior UN humanitarian folks last week. There needs to be like four hundred age stations, right, so this is hopefully not enough. So yeah, so hopefully it comes with that and and we'll we'll see and we'll see what what Hamas actually does. They've indicated this positive response, so if they come back and then don't agree to it, I go from here. There might be a uniladal declaration
by Israel and uh. And also part of the the sixty day is a withdrawal of IDF from certain areas of GOSM. So there is there is both sides are submitting submitting here.
So yeah, I do worry that it's gonna be like the first cease fire, where like after the first, like the phase two, where it was like who's gonna do the security? And that's how it basically, at least my understanding is that's how it collapsed. I hope that's not the case. Again, Man, I don't know who the fuck's gonna step up because it doesn't seem like anybody else will. So at least that's stopped the fucking bombing. And let's let's get people some fucking food in medicine.
Yeah, let's start reconstruction.
Yeah. Uh. Last bit the Iran ending cooperation with the
¶ Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and IAEA Relations
i a e A, which is what they said they would do obviously if they got hit, and they would redouble. They also said they would redouble their efforts and getting a nuclear weapon. A couple of things there too. The Pentagon came out and said that we brought them back a year or two. Frankly at this point, I don't really trust what the Pentagon says. Uh, gotta be honest with you, it could be true. I mean they were
year away anyway, even Yahoo said that. So anyway, Iran, it seems like it's kind of like a cooling period. Now they have a ceasefire and stuff, but it does seem like Uran's like they were photos satellite photos of them excavating the Ford out site. We'll see where it goes from there and make it. What are you reading on that?
Well, I mean, first thing, trust your enemy when they're telling you what they're doing, right, So, I mean they were already at sixty percent enriched uranium and there's around four hundred kilograms of the stuff. We think that's way over what you need for civilian energy. So that tells me right there they want a nuclear weapon. It told me before the the strikes actually that they were trying to send a message to the world that that's way they were heading. So maybe they were using it as
negotiation tactics. But there you go, you got you got, you got the response. So now when they the IAEA, they had cameras at these facilities, they had access to these facilities by taking them out. They're saying that they're going to do things that they would not have wanted to see the ia EA C Right, that's I mean, that's how you have to view it, in my opinion. So they are going for a nuclear weapon, and we need to focus on dismantling that, and that to me
is everything's on the table. I'd like to see it in the diplomatic new nuclear agreement, but that's up to Iran. It's clear the US wants to do that too. Maybe not, but if they don't, then we need to focus on our intelligence efforts. And I'd like to keep it on the covert side. You know, it's better than the overt side. But you know, and every step they make makes it more likely that this is going to become a conflict again. I mean, they have one of their eye tolas calling
for the assassination of Prime Minister Nanyahu and President Trump. Okay, the two commanders in chief of the most significant military forces against you, and you've just called for their assassination. So I mean irresponsibility. No, not the supreator. It's Katami, I believe, okay, But I mean I don't think he's gonna come out, and you know, one Iyetot is gonna come out saying this stuff unless the Iotola supports it.
Yeah.
Again, I'd like to see it in a diploma action. But this is not the way Aron's headed. So we need to be ready to strike again. I think we can use our own b twos if we have to. Hopefully this stays on the black side and doesn't become, uh, you know, an overt war again. But you know, the enemy gets a vote. The enemy in this case is I wan yeah.
And it looks like to me, I'm not Again, I'm not downplaying or saying that the strike's are wrong. I don't think they were, but i it gives Iran the perfect cover to two bar the IAEA because they're saying it's for safety reasons. You know, we can't guarantee their safety down there, you know, until we know it's safe, we're not gonna let them in. Well, they could be screaming that for the next two years while they rebuild,
So it's like the perfect cover. So, like you said, our intel has got to be on point so that we can say, beyond the shadow of a doubt, hey we know what you're doing down there, We're coming, you know, So Uh, yeah, they're just going to use this excuse.
It's for the safety of you know.
That's why you're going to let it exactly totally agree, Jay, That's why you got to let Intel speak for itself, right, So you can't because the problem when you get into is, you know, and I do think it was severely damaged, but when you say it's like completely erased. Yeah, and then four months from now, you're like, oh, we've got to strike it again because they've rebuilt it, and you're like,
wait a minute, how was it? You know, I mean, yeah, just let the let the Intel speak for itself and it just based on that, that's.
What you're on the side of the caution, and then you can say later on, see it was obliterated. But when you start out saying one hundred percent it's gone, you know, now the burdening proof is on you to make sure that it's actually like that, because, like you just said it, four months from now, we're launching new strikes. You know for a fact people on the other side are going to come back and be like, well I thought you said now.
Yeah, and it all comes out later, right, I mean, Freedom Information Act and all that's going to come out later. I mean, I guess people don't care, but you know, eventually, years from now, they're going to know exactly what the intelligence community.
I think.
Thanks, But anyway, let's let's see where it goes. There doesn't look like any plan to get back into the negotiation, and you know, and oman so this I don't think it's over put it that way. I think we're not out.
Yeah. Not not great, guys, that's my assessment on this is not great. Uh, make you wanted to talk a little bit more about the defense budget, like was that part of the big beautiful bill thing?
So there was a supplement talking to five billion I think was part of the Big Beautiful Bill. But that
¶ Defense Budget and National Security Priorities
brings our total one point one trillion if you take the twenty f y twenty six base budget plus that obviously a lot and I'm sure you know, there's could be a lot of discussions on where we're putting our money, but you know, I'm a national security guy, so I'm focusing on that. I think a lot of it was directed correctly on the enhancement of our space operations, our
artificial intelligence, drone operations. Our navy is getting a huge bump night if you add the three ships from the base budget, sixteen more from the supplemental on the big beautiful bill, it's nineteen you know, by my Marie Matt. That's a lot of ships, right so, and hopefully these aren't ships like just historic ships that are giant targets. These are ships that can use drones and are hard to see and can be latoral and you know all
that stuff. We need to be able to project power from the sea, but we do it, need to do it in a modern way. There is this golden dome, you know, if done correctly, I can see the twenty five billion for that. We want to be able to defend ourselves as nuclear weapons spread and the ability to deliver them spread, ie North Korea. Right So there's a lot in here, and hopefully it does more than just appease you know, different districts, but it really focuses on
our national security. The US has always had an offset plan where we try to jump ahead in technology of
our adversaries. You know, it's a big buzz talk always in the Pentagon, and it's exponentially going from you know where it was to quantum computers, artificially intelligence based robotics, drones where the air maritime ground, we're entering it to a you know, dangerous new world, put it that way, and we have to be way out front this and then figure out how to deal with what could be an explosion of very lethal, inexpensive options for our adversaries
that are coming out of these wars, especially in Ukraine. So I mean, I think I think it's got the right priorities. We'll see how it's actually implemented, but yeah, it's a big Now we're at over a trillion dollars, which you know, i'd say out of politics from the national security side, that just means we have to really figure out how we're going to deal with this national debt, right.
I mean, nobody's deal with it period either side, And I don't know how you can do both, but you know, I'll leave that for the political ends.
Jay, you got anything to add, I know you got to run soon.
So no, no, I mean agree with Mick. It's like, when you're just talking that last part. I was thinking about giving one of my daughters my credit card for the weekend. You know, they're going away, and it's like, here, take my credit card, and then Monday.
Comes and like how am I going to pay for this? You know.
So it's great. It's great that we're you know, up in the budget.
You know.
The toys are nice because they're necessary, but somebody's gonna have to pay for this, you know, down the road.
So hopefully we're thinking that. But that's it, and life's.
Not gonna play the game. Jay, you gotta go.
Yeah, I gotta I gotta bounce, take care of guys.
Follow I'll wrap up with Mick right now. I don't want to get into the politics of it. I'm gonna get worked up again and I can't go on another rant. Let's not do the politics of it. You're right, Yeah, we just put it on the on the tab and I have a few I have a sneaking suspicion that the reason why they made it as supplemental to the Big Beautiful Bill is because if you're a Republican or a Democrat and you vote against it, you can get tagged with being anti defense, right. I mean, it's the
it's just normal like logic, you know. Uh, I'm not against you know, spending money to beat China, be better than China in terms of that and like at least showing them, like, Hey, don't fuck around because like we still you know, are willing to spend as much money as possible. My beef is with like getting rid of like you're making ICE the biggest federal agency. Uh, and other things met people on Medicaid losing their medical coverage
and things to that nature. Is I feel like kind of but that's part of the other side of the bill, where like I don't really feel bad if like a millionaire has got to spend thirty grand more a year in taxes, I really don't because like that guy doesn't give a shit about me. And I'm sorry make I know you're a millionaire, so I apologize for that.
Hard to be a millionaire on your government service there you go to humanitarian work in the are Yeah, but no, I had to stay out of the pall. I mean they irish, you know, they talk about two things you're not supposed to be religion in politics all the time.
I just don't.
I'm just national security analysts, man a right, guys focus on easy things like Warren P's.
Yeah, just the easy stuff. Uh, Guys, do us a favorite liking subscribe? Of course, if you're listening to us on the audio side, subscribe and rate it right there too. Mick moulroy of course, fog Bo Lobo all his stuff links are in the description. Andy Millburn, Jason Lyones everything is down in the description. The best way to support the show is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. You get both a Teamhouse and I is on completely AD free and early. Yeah, that's it. Mick has always a pleasure.
I have a great rest of your weekend.
See everybody.
Hey guys, it's Jack.
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