And they only have a one track economy energy infrastructure, so he wanted that because that's the one thing that would advantage him. And then all the other things you said, it's complete Maximus, giveaway nothing, ask for everything, and then try to get the other side to fight each other. They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking.
Points, which even.
I mean, obviously we should be on the side of the crade, but even if we're just a mediator, right, you don't repeat any side talking points. That's not the point, okay, Right, you go in, especially in public, as a mediator, you just keep talking about the instinate.
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Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Dimitri. Here with McK molroy, Andy Milburn, uh Locke cooking since we've last had an episode, So you know, get a comfortable seat, sit back and relax because the world's falling apart. I'm just joking, not really. The big news coming out of the US is it seems like the rhetoric uh that's coming out is that the US is gearing up for a possible air strike or air strikes on Iranian
nuclear facilities. It started earlier this week with US bombarding the Iranian backed Toothy's. I love when like media companies say that that's like they got like a notice from wherever they get a notice from that, they always have to say Iran back Toothi's uh.
And they've been hitting the hoothies.
I feel like it's been harder than other air strikes that we've seen over the last year or so, since they've been screwing around, uh in the Red Sea. Yeah, let's just start with that because everything kind of like entangles into each other, like, and Israel is signing a delegation to DC this week to talk about an attack plan, whether the US is involved directly or it gives Israel
the green light to just let them go with. I'm sure support from US because you know, Israel is like clamoring for it, you know, hitting Iran.
Uh.
So, Mick, what do you got on this? Like, what are you tracking? Oh, there's a lot to cover there, Yes, there's quite a lot.
Absolutely, let's start with the houthis so on sorrow Lot that's the other that's their name actually, as you said, or on back they are a proxy. Everran They're not the greatest proxy everon if there was a scale, I think Hesbelo would be on the top as far as being able to direct them and take an orders, et cetera. The Houthis are a bit of a wild card, but they are or an hand back and a proxy, and ultimately Iran has the influence if it's not just stop
giving them weapons systems that they can hit ships with. Right, So you got to you gotta be a little skeptical of Iran's claims.
That they don't have the influence they have.
So I would first start with commending the current administration with taking a harder stance in my view against the Huthis.
Not only have they been.
A threat to us UH military assets, which includes of course, are sailors, soldiers, airmen, and marines, they have been conducting direct terrace attacks against commercial vessels, killing and injuring civilians that have nothing to do with any of the conflicts going on. And it's important to point out they were doing a lot of this before the war and Gaza even started, so they use that as their reasoning behind it, but they were doing this prior to that even happening.
So I think it's time that we take all the necessary military steps to degrade them to a point of being unable to continue the attacks. They're never going to change their philosophy unattacking the US and Israel. It's literally in their national motto. But we can take we can kill all the leadership, and we can destroy their ability to attack innocent civilians board commercial vessels, which of course this region about forty percent of the energy of the
world comes out of this region. It's mostly dependent on by the Indo Pacific region, not US, so good on them for that. Some would say this could also be a reason to flow a lot of assets. Some you just mentioned the USS Carl Vinson is also steaming from the Pacific to the Middle East to link up with
the Truman, another aircraft carrier. So we're putting a lot of regional assets out there, which I think sends a signal both to the Houthis in the signal being we're gonna, you know, attack you harder than you've been attacked before, but also a signal to Iran that you see how we're dismantling your proxy force here if you don't come to the negotiation table for JCPOA two point zero or whatever we're going to call it, which hopefully will include
addressing Iran's use of proxy forces in the region as well as nuclear ambitions.
Then you could be next.
So I think that I think there is a very I don't obviously no decision has been made yet, I don't think, but I think there's a very real possibility that the US could be looking at if orn has a breakout toward a nuclear weapon they have, they could easily get to the amount of enrichment they need. They have to come up with the triggering mechanism, which they
could get from Russia or North Korea. But if they do that, I do think there's a real possibility that the United States, either in conjunction with or laterly strikes the facilities and Tons and the other nuclear facilities you mentioned.
Ai.
Yeah, I agree with with Mick that the strikes on the WHO these are you know, renewed strikes or they're overdue. But the concern has never been so much the number of sorties were flying against the who thy's it's been it's been having intelligence that is useful enough to result
in real time targeting. In other words, just the nature of who the operations means that no matter how sophisticated or intelligence is, they are able to shoot and scoot and clear the area before we can cause really serious damage. And now that's you know, we are plinking away and we are causing casualties, and you know, essentially we're creating a tremendous attrition for them. So one hopes they cannot
sustain these efforts for long. But they did fire another rocket at I'm missing at Israel the other day, so you know they aren't. They aren't yet completely on the ropes. And it is the way we're doing things. Again, that's the only thing that we can do. This isn't a criticism, but it is. It is inefficient and it isn't as
effective as it may appear. And to really go after the heart of the problem would be bring pressure and Iran and so I you know, it's hard to tell what the administration is thinking, but definitely that must be foremost in their mind. The same same time, to mixed point, you know, Iran by the end, it's certainly you know, the last by the last information that that the IAEA has,
it's the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran was able to was producing about seven kilograms of uranium and rich to sixty percent, which is just below weapons grade every month, which would be enough to make about two nuclear bombs per year if enriched further. Okay, So that was towards the end of last year. Since then, the i e IAA says that their their intelligence, their information has kind
of dried up. At the same time, the Israelis are saying open source, their intelligence guys are saying that they are certain that the Iranians are making a determined approach for breakout, that they are doubling up on their centrifuge activity, and that more perhaps even more worryingly, they've moved their centrifuges into areas that are deeper than before.
Let me just say that.
Much, okay, and so kind of interesting. Hubarak, who's a former Israeli Prime minister and was until recently a firm advocate of the Israelis going after kinetically, going after the Iran's nuclear capability, is now singly doesn't think it's going to take do any good. That the Irans program's now to advanced, too deeply buried to take out without US help, all right, without bunker busting bombs. As the media likes to say, so that what is all this put it?
Oh the other thing is, do you remember back in twenty twenty, the Israelis killed the most prominent Iranian physicist, you know, I mean it was the end of her. It was it was a culmination of a campaign of going after a nuclear physicists. But this guy, his name was Mosen I'm going to mispronounce it far is Ida and and and they took him out using that it was like an automatic machine gun. It was a very
unusual type operation. And the problem is now apparently, and this is according to the Israelis, that there are now five or six of these guys who've replaced him, you know, which is probably predictable and A and are working even harder at ad upgrading enrichment process. So all of this is to say that yes, there are you know, Israel's Israel, It's been really bad.
I'm sorry. It's been a very bad year for Iran. You know.
They they lost their president and helicopter crash. They have been struck twice by the Israelis and were unable to bring down a single aircraft according to the Israelis, and certainly open source information seems to back the fact that they've been largely the new did of their anti aircraft or their their integrated air defense systems, and so it does seem like a good opportunity to strike and from you know, our own president's rhetoric when he talks about
taking the next step, obviously that would be the next step, but perhaps not quite so predictable. All right, And when we look at some of the internal politics within the administration, two of the biggest Iraq hawks, Iran hawks.
Are out of favor.
Remember what was his name, pok Brian Hook was a big component of He was the Iran envoy in Trump's first term, and he and Bompo were we're all about going after Iran and now they've had their security clearances withdrawn. And actually Hook was fired shortly after President Trump took office this time. And then you look at Eldridge Colby, right, and it's kind of the pentagainst policy chief who was saying that that the intend now is to focus on
on the Far East. I mean, absolutely do it this time. So you know, hard to tell, it's hard to read anything any coherent messaging here. Yes, I'm tracking the movement of aircraft down around you know, to include the supposed landing of F thirty fives in peace app which could be you know, for a number of reasons. I mean, we and moving the aircraft carriers to the region. We do these things all the time as kind of a signaling mechanism. It could just be part of our messaging
to Iran that we intend to play hard. But I don't know, there's a long way of saying this, But I don't know. I mean, there's there's certainly mixed messaging. But I'll finish by saying that last year I posited that the Israelis, if they wanted to, could strike and have serious effect upon Iran's nuclear capability, and that appears to be no longer the case because of Iranian moves. So they would apparently if the open source informations we believe, they would need us support for this.
Yeah, And on that point, the munitions when it comes to doing this a very important right. So the GVU fifty seven, I think, to my understanding, we're the only ones that have it. It can It's about thirty thousand pounds massive ordinance penetrating bomb that can go around two hundred feet below the surface before it detonates and to Andy's point, it's probably necessary to actually have the effects we want on the facilities based on what.
They've done with them. So that would kind of.
Necessitate the US, I believe, unless there's only a certain amount of aircraft that can carry that too. So I'm not an air guy, so I'm not going to get too far.
Yeah, I was just looking that up. Who carries it?
I think it's to be too.
Only to be two like the F fifteen can. I mean, it's that big.
I'd look it up, but there's only a certain amount. It's thirty thousand. Think about it. We talk about you know these huge jadams that are two thousand pounds thirty thousand.
Pounds, right, So.
That's one point. The other point I would make that Ani made earlier. Certainly agree it's more than just your intent when it comes to dimission the Hohothi's part of the way the intelligence apparatus in the United States work. It's the most effective, I think in the world, but it is finite, so they only have you know what they have, and they often shift based on policy interests of senior leadership.
Right.
So, and I don't know this to be necessarily true, but when the Biden administration deemphasized the who thies took them off the terrorist list, the chances of the intelligence community and shifting collection on.
Them as high.
It doesn't mean they just dumped it, but you know, based on these signals, they would shift. So now that there's a new administration who's obviously more interested in being effective against the Huth, he's militarily effective that the Intel has to catch up. So it can catch up pretty quick, but it has to be retasked in some cases to
really get that solid picture. And I think one of the reasons why they're talking about leadership targets in Yemen right now is because the Intel is catching up, so good for us, bad for you know.
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Thank you, and yeah, it can only be carried by big bomber's B two and probably the B fifty two.
Okay, yeah, you fifty seven.
Yeah, And that means also Dandie's point, you got to get rid of the integrated Air Missile Defense System of Aroan before you really conduct these strikes. Right, these are big, big aircraft and they're going to be coming in, uh, you know the way they do.
So they're gonna have to They're gonna have to take out a lot of Iranians.
So the best case scenario is they come to the table and we come to an agreement that keeps them from getting a nuclear agreement, stops them from paying every UH militant group in the region to attack its neighbor and UH, and it gets sanctions removed off the Iranian people so they can join the world economy and do well. Right, that's the way we want to go. We shouldn't want to end up with the military straight because the question
is what's the reaction what comes from that? And it's you know, I'm not saying we don't do it, but I think the diplomatic path forward, which I think the administration wants to see, is the path. But it's really going to come down to Iran so far don't seem to be interested the eye tool.
Yeah, I mean in finnis not in finness, but to be accurate, you know, Iran's Iran's in a quandary too. I mean, they've they've lost their missile stockpiles last year, their air defenses and regional allies, you know, with downfall a facade, and also the demise of hermas has Boller on the ropes and now the hoofis and so on one hand, that does make a nuclear option more attractive, but on the other hand, they're in a very poor position to whether the fallout if they are called in
the process of dashing for a bomb. And you know, the Israelis have shown have demonstrated a remarkable degree of penetration of Iran over the last year too, which means that the Uranians are probably concerned that they cannot break out without the rest of the world, or make rush for a breakout without the rest of the world finding out.
You know, So there are I mean, they've got a new president who seems a moderate but was it Pezeshkin, But he's a he's a weak president with very neat little nuclears, very little say on nuclear policy.
So.
You know, even but but those with real power within the administration, the Iranian regime do have good reasons to cut a deal. They're in a you know, they're in diary economic straits and has said, you know, they've they've lost their allies and they they must be you know, even if if a combined Israeli US strike doesn't achieve its objectives, that's still going to leave Iran in a in a very poor position from the just from the fallout. So I think, you know, I would be surprised if
Iran doesn't broach some kind of negotiated settlement. But to mixed point, and I agree absolutely the missing part from the jig POA was as a lack of leverage or are both right inability, But we didn't even try to bring pressure in Iran to stop its you know, it's great zone activities, use of proxies in the in the Middle East and now of course specifically the Huthis are the of the main problem.
Just for anybody listening to Jack Paul is the first Iran nuclear deal with on thee Obama administration just fyi.
Yeah, and you know, Britain, France and Germany who are rarely aligned on Iran, have all said that they would be willing to, you know, reimpose just the full gamut of pre twenty fifteen sanctions in Iran, and they said that.
You know, it's recently, as December.
Focused on on non proliferation. So there's certainly a lot of pressure and Iran must be sensing the pressure to negotiate.
And they've got internal problems too.
You know, they can probably talk about it better than I can, but they, you know, they're dealing with they have never been totally impervious, certainly, not in the last two decades, not since the Orange Revolution whenever that was two thousand and nine, it was orange or green, I forget the color. But they've never been impervious to public opinion.
I mean they have, Yes, their elections are sham elections, but they nevertheless, the regime is concerned when there are rumblings of discontent, and there are increasing rumblings of discontent within Iran. They've got a very highly educated middle class that wields probably more power than in most countries in the Middle East, or more influence, and they are unhappy.
They're unhappy with Iran's venturing overseas. They're unhappy with the isolation, and they're especially unhappy with the economic situation.
That's true, they are very popular and another thing you reference as the president actually is more focused internally, right, so the EE toll and all the they make all the big decisions and nuclear decisions, you know, frolicking overseas and IRGC and all that. But they are they are a very unpopular regime and Iran. And you know, if they do enter into the jig POA two point zero, this could be very good for the country which wants it.
So there's there's a way ahead. That's that's clearly best for the region and best for Iran, or at least.
They're running people.
But right now the regime seems to be only focused on the regime, which is what usually regimes focused on.
Uh staying in the area.
Israel start restarted as its military action on Gaza, a ton of air strikes, ground force movements. They've really liked U turn the heat up.
I would say.
They've also started bombing southern Lebanons and hesbloup positions as well. So ceasefire seems to have you know, be gone. Make what are you looking at there?
Yeah? So I mean part of this was because Israel wanted to extend the first phase of the ceasefire, right so that would me and hostages still come out, Palestinian prisoners are released, and humanitarian aid comes into large quantities. Hamas wanted to go the second phase because that means the IDEF has to withdrawal and essentially the war zone in the third phase, of course, gets into reconstruction all that. So Nan Yaho wasn't gonna be able to hold his
coalition if he withdrew the idea. Not that the world should care necessarily about Prime Minister of Manyaho's political future, but that's the reality for him. So Hamas then rejected the extension. So that's just looking at it from their perspective, right, So there's no humanitarian aid coming into Gaza right now.
That shouldn't happen, but it is. Hamasa doesn't apparently care, right so, because they could extend the first phase and they could release hostages that never should have been taken hostage in the first place, and we could be where we are, but they are, so I think because the administers came back into the government Smoltritz and Ben Gavir, there's probably.
A good likelihood that we're not going to see a ceasefire anytime soon.
I don't think they would have came back in without talking to that YAHOO and then there's a ceasefire that that's the reason why they left in the first place, right, So that's my speculation. I don't obviously know anything specific, but I think we're going to be set for a pretty long, extended period of fighting here. It's in the north, it's in the central, and it's in the south. I think the whole time during the two months ceasefire, they were collecting intel as I would be too, and preparing
for this phase of the operation. So that's why it happened so quickly when it did, and that's why it's it's quite frankly, been very effective going after you know which left of the leadership, and I think this is
going to keep going. Israel is set claiming that they're going to create these humanitarian zones where people in Gaza would be going to hopefully to receive humanitarian assistance, but anybody left out would be condeemed, you know, en to be combatant, and that you know, from a military perspective, would be easier. But it does appear to be you know, serious population control. And then of course we still have this these reports that countries have been approached about taking gusins,
which again is very impractical and likely unlawful. But that's where I think we are now. There's also and I know, you know, I stick to national security and politics, but there's a lot of politics going on in Israel right now.
So there's the beginning of the fighting.
Again, was super unpopular by some Prime Minister Nana, who has fired shin Bette.
Basically their internal service chief.
Apparently the cabinets now removed the Attorney General. I would call it a constitutional trisis for Israel, but they don't have a constitution, which is one of the reasons. So there's there's a lot going on right now, internal strife inside Israel. You know, the far right thinks that the judiciary has too much sound familiar, has too much authority.
The far left thinks, basically Prime Minister of Yanyah who's went from a traditional conservative to some kind of you know, French monarch where he gets it in himself, the state right, the state is meat. That's kind of a I think a thumbnail sketch of the current situation, but it does affect the war. Right, so this had this could have a profound effect on the war and and uh so that's why I bring it up. But those are what I see going now Lebanon. Let's hope it doesn't kick
back off. The people love On and certainly people in Northern Israel, but they have to be able to get control. That's one thing that the government in Lebanon has to has to get control over the armed factions in Lebanon.
They have to.
They have to figure it out or UNIFIL needs to figure out how they can do more, which I don't have any competence in, but they're literally if they just say well it's not us, it's that group of people that are in Lebanon that are attacking you, then it's going to kick back off.
Or are you yeah?
So I mean the war is intimately bound up with the Israeli politics. You know Netna, who did a number of things to kind of line this up, forring the the previous Chief and staff for the Australia Defense Forces and bringing in Lieutenant General Zamia, who is a I wouldn't say a net loyalist, but seems to have used their alignment.
Net Yahoo, and.
Zamir has said, you know, he favors a longer campaign, bringing armored divisions in on the ground inside Gaza to rout out Hamas fighters, which is you know, obviously having a catastrophic effect on the population there.
I mean, the.
Repossessing redisplacing population it gained to the so called humanitarian zones, and you know, infrastructure is pull varized. They've been dealing with near starvation now for for months. So you know, again the we shouldn't forget the scale of misery within Gaza. That doesn't affect Israeli politics, and I think most Israeli is really that really factors with them. But the deploying the number of divisions that Zamir envisions for his war plans is going to have a severe effect in the
Israeli population. It's going to include tens of thousands of reserve troops who have yet to be mobilized. Okay, with all the following effects on the economy and disruption of lives, that will have an effect.
Uh, you know.
For for Netnia himself, the timing of his fell's renewed attack on Gaza was politically fortuitous. His coalition was in danger of losing its majority on the on the eve of a critical budget vote, and and if that had failed to pass, and it would have prompted early elections.
And then you know, as Mick talked about, within hours of the strikes on Gaza, if Meir ben Gavera, who's an old friend of this program, leader of the far right Jewish Power Party, and he had had left the government back in January, and then he returned to the fall, which indicates, yes, that there was some kind of deal between him and certain is anxious to rally his base because of you know, controversial attempt to fire the head of the shinbad and and the Attorney General their investigations
into Netna whose close aids who are alleged to have leaked classified documents and receive payments from Cutter, and then of course the corruption charges against Netnahun himself, right, and then.
You know, it could be.
That that Supreme Court could block some of these efforts, whose efforts political efforts, on the grounds a conflict of interests, which would again lead to a constitutional crisis, which is you know, it's been building since before the war. Frankly, I mean, remember uh, the fact that his coalition wanted to pass sweeping legal reforms to weaken the powers of the Supreme Court, and all of that was kind of eclipsed by the war. But it goes bubbling on in
in the in the background. So it does look as though, you know, regardless, that there is going to be some kind of political crisis in Israel, and the the renewed defensive in Gaza provides I'm sure, well, no, I'm sure provides a welcome distraction to Netnahu and his uh, his proteges.
Uh.
Yeah, I mean I remember when the ceasefire first came into effect or they were like close to it, and we were talking about the points of it where like Phase two kind of didn't seem like, uh, really viable of an option where like the IDF backs out and then some other magical security force comes in and keeps the.
Law and order and stuff.
So I mean, it's as a cynical person that I am, it doesn't really seem that shocking that Israel wanted to extend Phase one because Phase two was.
Fanciful.
Yeah, And there's and part of this is the the rest of the world isn't stepping up, right, So yeah, I remember when Secretary blanken. Last administration went around asking all the countries in the region about a multinational you know, peacekeeping force.
If you will. They got a big no.
Right, So so that's off the table.
So what's what's left?
Is there some kind of version of can they train you know, the former Palestinian police? Can they train Palestinians that are vetted and not associated with AMAS for example or pig or jay excuse me, I guess I could maybe that should be happening. Seems like something that the international community could be doing. Or they could go with a private company, and you know that's there's always issues with private security because you know who's who's whose.
Laws do they fall under? Who are they?
You know, when something bad happens, all of a sudden, the governments that hired them are pointing at them. So I mean, I'm not saying any of these are easy, but I mean from Israeli active, they're not going to turn it back over to AMAS Like that's just not going to happen.
I don't care what side of the political.
Spectrum you are in Israel that that solution is a nonstart.
What about the Palestinian authority, because I know there was some talk about like, no, they're not not them either.
Well, I mean, the reason why the last administration called them to revitalized Palestinian stories because largely they're viewed negatively by the Palestinian people. They are for the most part ineffective and certainly corrupt. So there has to be some new version of that, and then under that there could be a trained you know, keep the peace force right. It's easier said than done, and you know, I spent
a lot of time training partner forces like that. So but you know, the best way, best day to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best day is today. So if they intend is to ever have a time when the IDF can withdraw and Palestinians can take care of their own security, which means also Israeli security, right, so not allowing any group in there totach Israel. It's got to start. So it doesn't seem like anybody's talk about that.
Yeah.
So the one interesting thing about a number of interesting things about what's going on, I mean, the the the ideas. Really they're not it's not so much well, they are fighting on forefronts, so they're maintaining a robust presence on four front forefronts that is Gaza, what they are going on the offensive again southern Syria, you know, beyond the goal on Heights, maintaining a presence there in accordance with net you know, how's the declaration that he did not
want EHTS pushing south of Damascus. The HDS, of course, is the ruling party in Syria now. And then you've got the West Bank where the you know, the Israelis a mobilized reserve battalions in.
To bosster their presence in.
The West Bank, and of course Leban, you know they've got five they're maintaining five fortified locations in southern Lebin, which by the way, you know, you can look at this as you want. You can say it provides, you know, in justification the governments provides a buffer zone and for
the security of Israeli civilians in the north. But on the other hand, and the Israelis encountered this during their twenty year long occupation of Leban, it provides has Bolla caused deter to rise again right to expel the Israeli occupy. It as a kind of focus of effort, and it continues to keep kind of the sheer resentment simmering, so
you know, it's a double ed sword. The other reason, I mean, it's unlikely who knows whether the US administration will come down on the Israeli government and have them downscale any of these military presences anytime soon. But the pressure is likely to be internal, and it's likely to be economic. You know, Israel's economy has suffered hugely since the events of October the seventh, and they continue doing so. It's not we're not just talking about loss of tourism
and all of that. We're talking about the course, the cost of the economy of having a significant proportion of the population mobilized as reservists, and a lot of these a lot of the guys in all of these locations are are reservists, and as I mentioned earlier, in order to continue the offensive thing as a gaza, they're going to have to mobilize many more reservists. So there's going to be there's significant economic pressure to kind of downscale
these commitments. But there doesn't seem to be an end in sight.
You got anything.
I mean, pretty sick we covered all that.
I just want yeah, go ahead.
Andy, Yeah, I was just saying that there's another aspect here that Netahu doesn't seem to care about. I think probably some of his generals and some of the more moderate members of his coalition do too, is the fact that they are burning bridges rapidly with two of the most important partners in regional partners, partners a strong word. But they're neighbors, Egypt and Jordan, and relations have never
been worse, well, not never, not since seventy three. Okay, relations have not been worse with those than those two countries, and they are now. And there's you know, I mean, you can say what you want, and you can pound his chest and say with the you know.
With the biggest bully in the neighborhood.
But on the other hand, you if you if you're going to burn bridges like that, there's going to be a cast. And and it's worth remembering that fifty percent of Jordan's population of Palestinians and are incensed about what is.
Going on in Gaza.
And there's a long porous border with Jordan. It's quite easy to cross, and so you know, you can't end to end of course there is with Egypt. You can't help thinking that that isroll maybe sowing the seeds for serious problems over the next decade.
Jesus, all right, let's uh, let's go a little bit more of about this for a long time.
Yeah, let's go to a season ten of Aizon.
We'll be talking about this happier news. I guess which I'm joking. The Ukrainian ceasefire. Lots of gone onun sense. I think we last spoke. The US and Ukraine came together and had to cease fire proposal for thirty days to not hit infrastructure, like an energy infrastructure, that didn't last more than like four hours. Putin put out his own plan, which seems to be, you know, zero concessions
on his side, obviously, like what to be expected. Why would he give up anything when our own side is the United States anyway, is happily happy to give him
as many concessions as he's like, as he'd like. Trump and Putin had a two hour phone call the other day and a very I'm gonna bring it up, the very interesting interview with Tucker Carlson and Steve Whitcoff, where Steve Whitcough I mean, was you know, I guess describing the relationship between Putin and Trump as being the best of friends, and it's just it's kind of wild to see that this stuff is coming from inside the house where Putin is somehow, some way, uh, somebody who can
be trusted in any way to negotiate uh, And it's.
Coming from our own officials for the most part. And it's.
Disheartening to say the least. And forget it if you're from Ukraine, I mean what I mean at that point, or Europe. So that's just me, Yeah, running my mouth, Nick, what do you think?
Well, I'll try to start with one positive is you know, at least we're talking, right, because you're never gonna get
to a ceized part negotiated settlement without talking. And the other point is you know Ukraine is not losing, right, I mean, talk about a group that's been completely underestimated from the beginning till now, and there's a there's a plausible way ahead if Europe steps up that even if the US steps out, which would be a huge mistake, not just for Ukraine and our status in the world, but for all our relationships going forward. Who deem as
a completely unreliable allied partner. But there is a way that Ukraine can stay.
In the fight. I won't be easy.
But Russia's losing so many troops right now that even though they could care less about the that personally, it eventually runs out and they're gaining very little terrain with the amount of expenditure of force on the On the issue of the seas far, essentially, Russia rejected the seas far proposal by the United States. You know, we keep saying, oh, they said yes, and then said, but only infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and by energy infrastructure, I mean our infrastructure, because they
immediately turned around intacked Ukrainian energy and infrastructure. And really the only reason why they're focused on energy infrastructure is because Ukraine has been incredibly effective against targeting Russian energy infrastructure and they only have a one track economy energy infrastructure. So he wanted that because that's the one thing that
would advantage him. And then all the other things you said, He's it's complete maximists, giveaway nothing, asked for everything, and then try to get the other side to fight each other. They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking points, which even I mean, obviously we should be on the side of the Ukraine. But even if we're just a mediator,
you don't repeat any sides talking points. That's not the point, right you go in, especially in public as a mediator, you just keep talking about the in state, but you also don't talk about what's called, you know, for the policy walks out there. It was a final status issues, that's what's supposed to come out the other end. You don't talk about it publicly because that's the whole point
of the negotiation process. So, you know, obviously not taking advice from me, but you know, I would advise that we are openly for Ukraine because there are partners and we did promise them security guarantees back in nineteen ninety four, and that General Kellogg should be running this thing as he was, but at the very least, stop talking about it publicly, Stop stop issuing declarations on final status issues, and start coming up with sticks for Russia because they're
not going forward with this. And as we start talking additional sanctions, enhanced security assistance, so more not just what we were given, but more, and then you know, whatever else we can come up with for sticks and then give Russia a reason to come to the table, they'll start losing terrain. If we double down on our security assistance, they'll start losing the funding to pay for the North Korean troops, the Iranian drones if we further damage their
economy through sanctions. So that's how you get across to Russia. They don't You could complement them all day long. They'd be happy with that, but it's not going to make it hell of beans. They only stand understand consequences, and if there's no consequence, then they're just going to drag this out until And the last point that I make is in Prime Minister Maloney made this so the conservative Italian Prime minister. The only reason why Russia cares about
security guarantees is because they intend to attack Ukraine. Right, If you don't intend to reattack Ukraine, then what do you care about security guarantees or it doesn't matter.
Right.
So I think Europe's waking up, and that's a good thing, and they should have woke up a long time ago. They're going to work on their own defense, and I think they're going to quadruple down if they need to on Ukraine because it's definitely in their interest to stop putin in its tracks in Ukraine and eventually you get Ukraine into the European Union and then whatever version comes out of NATO, if that's really where we're.
Headed, which would be a mistake if we leave it.
One more point of that, if we actually get Europe to the point where it is an extraordinarily effective military force, all paying twice as much as they used to pay on their own defense, and then leave NATO, that would be, from a strategic perspective, incredibly short sighted. We would literally have to make up in our defense budget where we just cut ourselves away.
From them by leaving the NATO.
Although I don't think it's going to happen, but since people like to talk about this so much, it would make no sense from the U from solely the US perspective, to leave an entity that's now an incredibly effective fighting force, which Europeans will will be one day.
All right, off the soapbox.
Andy, Yeah, you know.
You know the problem is I make and I agree on two manch stuff. So I'm not going to You know, I couldn't word it better than McK did you know? I agree with him in all those counts, So I'll put I'll just approach this from a very different and
perhaps a personal level. So first of all, you know, I'm not going to rail away about the you know, are my concern about the fact that we to be coosing up to put in my feelings about the Russian so well known and and maybe I'm just overly emotional because they did try to kill me on a on a number of occasions, and I take that very personally. And you know, to mixed point about Europe stepping up to the plate, I think and actually playing the mature party in all of this.
I think it's you know, spot on.
You know, it just is a as as a comment too, because invariably, and I read when I read the comments about our appearances on on on ice on, and we've got some great supporters, and we've got some people who reappear and or and I call them supporters too, but they're kind of they're motivated by hatred and resentment, and they really critique us increasingly for our lack of loyalty to the United States, which seems to be absurd that I would like to comment on about this, you know,
this whole DISCUSSI about what the defense of Ukraine stands for, et cetera, et cetera.
You know.
I mean, I spent thirty one years in uniform, fourteen wars on the behalf of the United States, from Mogot issue all the way through to the fight against ISIS.
And you know, one.
Thing that that I never really, never really made sense to me is when people thanked me for defending our freedom, because our freedom has never has never been a threat. This country has not been, not during my lifetime. And you know, while I certainly acknowledge and appreciate the thank you for your service and all that, but this constant talk about how we're defending the freedom of the United States was all bullshit. When it comes down to it,
we were doing well we had to do. You know, I'm not undermining the patriotism of my comrades and arms, but we were doing what we had to do on behalf of our country, on behalf of the national interest. But we weren't defending freedom at all. Ukrainians are defending freedom, Okay, maybe not of the United States but of Europe. And they're defending ideals that I sometimes found difficult to align
with what we were doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. That is why it makes sense for guys like Nate fans who we interviewed the other day, or do myself with the guys and the Mozart group who have been in Ukraine when we were doing what we did. And you know, that's probably what I need to say on this and why it makes perfect.
Sense now.
Continue. It continues to make perfect sense that Europe is stepping up to the plane and that it makes no sense at all to rely on putin all the Russians to hold the peace. I mean, you don't even have to be a student of history. You just have to read the news over the last decade or so to understand that. And it probably brings me sounding like an
angry you know, whenever I read listeners. But you know, I think a lot of the problems with this closing up to rush right now, and I'm watching the well sterer of weirdness on social media. It comes from people who are really, really fucking ignorant and just don't They don't even read recent history, they don't understand geopolitics. That's
really what it comes down to. And it's sad and it's but the isolationism in the last century has not well worked well for the United States, and it worked well now that is all.
Yeah, And if I can make one point on it what Andy just said. You know, as far as you know patriotism versus the alternative being I guess treachery that was well, look at it. Your patriotism or lack thereof, has to do with your fidelity to the Constitution and your service of the country, right, So.
You could be.
You know, Mark Kelly to use the example of somebody who's calling the trader obviously isn't or Mike wols right, it shouldn't be you're based on your political position. If that's the case, that's not patriotism. That is that is uh, that's just partisanism. And you know that's the way I view it. So if you're calling somebody a trader because you disagree with them politically, I mean you might want to redefine your definition of patriotism. And that's not just
what you know, names we recognize. But you know, obviously I have a lot of friends that served, in fact most of them, and they're from across the political spectrum, right, But I don't I don't define their service to their country or their status as a patriot or not based on you know, whether they're far right, far left, or somewhere in the center. If you do, then we just fundamentally disagree on the definition.
Of the word.
Yeah, very well said by both of you, guys. I have a question. There is a prevailing thought that I'm seeing that the Russian economy, now how it's constituted because of the war, is heavily reliant on the war continuing, and that might be a reason why Putin is apprehensive to make a deal. I think that's bullshit, but that is a pf prevailing thought that's going on right now because at some point, I mean, you lose enough, guys, I mean, what is your economy without the people in it to work it.
In next generation? I mean, I don't know. I'd like to hear somebody who kind of thought that through. I'd be interested to hear from somebody who knows more about economies economics than I do, but explain it.
I don't know.
I do think right now he thinks he's he could still gain territory, and potentially I think that's one of the reasons.
But if this is another, I'd like to hear it.
You know, Yeah, I don't. I haven't heard that d And to me on it, I'm not an economists, but it simply doesn't make sense. You know, the the economy is taking a shell acking, and I think it's I mean, I think it's just much more basic than that. Putin has staked everything on this war. It was his war, you know, it was a it was gru war in FSB war. It was not a military you know, his military weren't telling him to do it. They were pretty
docile in the face of it. But there is has been since the outset of the war increasing resentment against the administration, administration regime from within the military. Remember Progosians kind of attempted coup and the fact that he was he was almost embraced by many within the army's leadership. Putin knows that he must know that, and he knows that his position is precarious if he cannot, if he cannot show some gains from this war, you know, I mean,
he hasn't here to begin with. For the first eighteen months of the war, he was more or less able to kind of isolate the Russian public from the effects of casualties. But the war is becoming increasingly is increasingly unpopular, and he's had to take increasingly draconian measures to stamp down on our position. If it is shown subsequently the up outcome is shown to be anything but a victory, he looks very poor, indeed, And again you don't you know,
however strong right insulated, he may feel. Just to look at again post Soviet Union, Russian history shows that you as a leader, you've got to be dynamic, dynamic in Russia, in other words, having success either with the economy or in some other way, or or you're gonna you're gonna sink and someone's gonna come after you. And and Putin knows that that is why he wants to prolong the wall. As long as there is a war, there is something
to focus on. There's something to focus his uh, his repressive measures within the country on, something to justify to find them by without the wall. Once it ends, uh, there's this, there's going to be a backlash. And he knows that.
Yeah, yeah, very well said. I have one more question having to do with Russia.
I've heard and there is another thought that the reason why we're trying to reset things with Russia is because we want to drive a stake in between Russia and China. And that's why we're doing that. That's why we're being buddy more buddy buddy with Russia. I agree that I feel that's bullshit as well.
But it's always it's been a long term, uh, policy objective of the United States, the Sino Soviet split, going back to you know, Kissinger and all that. It it's not a bad idea, especially you're in the Soviet Union times Cold War. It's not gonna work. I mean, it's just not and and and of course ours is going to cycle, right, so we'll have well, we haven't really ever had anybody who's pro Russian as president, so let's say that. But as its cycles, we're not going to stay consistent.
Put it that way.
Uh, the Soviet in in China, I mean, excuse me, the Russian in China leadership probably gonna stay is consistent, considering their autocrats. So it's just it's just not gonna work. I mean, I think we could try to drive a wedge, but we just have to be realistic and the fact that it's never actually worked, and that cozing up to the Russians is only going to last as long as it's at advantage to the Russians. So I looked up how many times Russias invaded a country since like nineteen
forty I think nineteen thirty, late thirties. It's like eleven times and including two countries twice, one on b in Ukraine. So like the idea that you can trust these folks for a ceasefire, I mean it just defies you know, Wikipedia, just google it, look it up, right. So, I mean the past is prologus, man. So if you want to see what they have done in the past, when they've signed agreements or said they wouldn't do something and then did there it is, so be careful who you buddy
up to. It's it is not in our interest, never has been, and at least with somebody like Putin in charge, it won't be.
The fact that anyone actually believes that coosing up to Russia's going to help us against China. It's just shows a level of ignorance that's beyond comfort hension, you know. I mean, let's just be clear. Russia is a second rate, ten part fucking autocracy. It's a paper tiger, Okay, China
is a powerhouse. We do need to be concerned about China, But dividing a wedge between the two countries as Mick pointed out, is impractical and b does us no good at all, and certainly not by closing up to Russia. You know, I mean, let's you know, Russia's our adversary. You know we've said this before. Russia is not our friend, all right, NATO the country's and NATO are our friend. The country's are NATO, as we talked about before. But I was just remind people because apparently there are still
those who don't understand NATO. The only time they've activated Article five in NATO was in the defense of the United States, and by the way, that was that was a very generous extrapolation on those countries part so that they could come to our aid in Iraq and Afghanistan. It's just you know, I mean what Canada's.
Are in me now?
I mean, come on, right in Russia's economy is about half of that of California. Yeah, if we want these folks, which have zero to trade to be our primary trading partners, were in a lot of problems.
They are everything that Andy just said, and I just need to be careful with this.
Yeah.
Again, I didn't believe that.
I'm just saying what I've been hearing in terms of like other shows and folks that think they're like folks that are.
In this sphere.
I guess I've heard that a few times, and I'm just like, how does that make fucking sense? I mean, you just look at like a guy like Medvedev, who was like the president there for a little bit while putn was, you know, running things in the background before he changed the constitution in Russia. You know, it looked like there was like a great relationship with team and
him and Obama. You see him now, he's full on cuoo, you know, full on crazy warmonger dude, tweeting off, shooting off tweets that are like insane if you read them. And the fact is we've talked about this before. Andy, you said it like he was full of shit. Then just like he's you know, this is who he really is, and this is how Russians, the Russian power you know, power players, really do it like they're full of shit.
For the most part.
It just frightens me the level of ignorance, honestly, I mean within our own country. And I don't know, I don't know if it's the education system. I don't know if it's the fact that we feel insulated by two oceans, even in this area of globalization. But just kind of the it's it's more than lack of education. It's just kind of lack of real interest. And it's as though we just don't pay attention to what's going on in the world collectively. And it's it's quite it has frightening
consequences at times. And watch there'll be a deluge of people critics accusing me now of being a trader and undermining the United States and being a US hater and etcetera, etcetera, against whom you know. I will again remind you, guys that I spent thirty one years in uniform defending defending freedom, but on the behalf of the United States, and obviously obviously in a real term, say patriot.
Yeah.
Well, boys, that was spicy. I like getting Andy worked up and read how he makes for good good podcast listening. Well, Tom, don't forget to check out the show to subscribe to the show.
Like the show.
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