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The U.S. BOMBS Iran | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Jun 23, 202539 min
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Episode description

In this episode, the hosts discuss the recent US military actions against Iranian nuclear sites, the implications of these actions, and the potential for blowback. They explore the challenges of intelligence assessments, the Iranian resistance, and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The conversation highlights the complexities of military strategy, regional stability, and the potential consequences of US actions in Iran.
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00:00 Start
02:15 US Military Action Against Iran
07:11 Iran's Response and Regional Implications
12:43 Intelligence and Assessment Challenges
16:10 Potential Blowback and Future Scenarios
22:01 The Role of Resistance Movements in Iran
24:31 Conclusion and Future Considerations

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Transcript

Intro / Opening

Speaker 1

Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. We got a special guest today, Mark Polly Moropolis, former CIA officer. He's got a new podcast called The Crisis Room. He's hosting it with Amber Rudd, former Home Secretary in the UK and Mark Urban, investigative journalists and author. Check it out. The links will be in the descriptions called the Crisis Room. Uh Mark, what's going on?

Speaker 2

Bro?

Speaker 3

Well? Crazy times. Glad to be with you guys. I see Mick is joining us from an undisclosed location as he's running around the golf. Very brave of him, probably the Four Seasons or or or Ritz somewhere, but I admire bravery and his dedication to the podcast.

Speaker 4

It's undisclosed, man, I can't tell you what one.

Speaker 1

Of so obviously what's happened last night? Crazy? The US got into the fray bombed Iranian nuclear sites, Ford Au, Natons and isafon used any people are talking anywhere from twelve to fifteen b two bombers. Half of them were like a diversionary tactic. The other half went into he ran with I believe I saw a fighter escort. They dropped upwards of fourteen GBU fifty sevens, the mops the thirty thousand pound bombs on the sites, specifically at ford Aw.

The rest of the sites got about thirty Tamahak cruise missiles from submarines in the Gulf. Pretty wild. I mean, it's been we've been gearing up for this. I mean, obviously in the news we've seen like the movement of like our carrier groups and stuff like that, more and more tankers heading that way. So it was like the riding was kind of on the wall. President Trump said the other day yesterday or two days ago, that he was gonna give it two weeks and then make a decision.

And the twenty four hours it happened later a lot to cover. Obviously, I just gave you the like bullet point stuff, like Pete hack Set, Secretary of Defense, just had a presser saying that they obliterated the obliterated the facilities and stuff like that, and that was the most magical attack in the history of attacks. And then right

US Military Action Against Iran

away General Kane, joint Chairman of the Joint Chief says, we don't really have a b DA yet. It's still being assessed and it's going to take time. So thankfully, there was somebody who was sober. I'm not a presser. I not literally sober, but figuratively I mean or both. Anyway, guys, what are your what are your thoughts? Mark you you go first. You are a guest of honor, so kind of.

Speaker 3

Well, I think you mentioned some things that are important, so like anything, and you know, Jason and Mick will certainly understand this. You know, BDA takes time. Bomb damage assessment takes time. You know, if using words like obliterate

really not that smart. I think General Kine, who incidentally his last job was as the kind of the lead military advisor at CIA to the director, but I think he was much more sober and said that, you know, we think we had good effects, but we just got to see and that's going to take kind of all sources of intelligence collection, human intelligence, signals, intelligence imagery might

take days, even weeks to figure it out. Looks like a very successful strike, you know, thank God for the incredible you know, planning and bravery of the of of kind of the entire package, but we just don't know. And I think that ultimately this gets judged at the end of the day by the effects one quick thing just to throw in there, and Dean, you know, we can argue about this if you want, no, no, but in some ways, you know this argument of whether we

should do it or not as a legitimate one. But you know what, I have no tears shed for the Iranians. The rent was long overdue. Whether it's you know, the Iranians supplying e fps, the explosively formed projectiles killed a lot of US forces in Iraq, or there of course plots to kill President Trump and his members of his former members of his national security team. I could go on and on US embassy bombings in Beirut and marine barracks.

So you know what, if the Iranians got a little taste finally, because frankly, US policy has been a business across multiple administrations and we've never done anything to Iran. The fact that this president, who I think a lot of us have some questions about in terms of competence in his national security time, the fact that he's in charge now, you know not probably not ideal, but you know what, you know again, the rent was was long overdue, and so I'm not shedding any tears.

Speaker 1

Make thoughts. We got too many people here. If it was just me and you I would toldally fight you on this, but go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yeah, yeah, well I'm certainly not gonna argue with Mark on that because I agree. I mean, ultimately, Iran has has has himself to blame for this. They've been the biggest destabilizing force in the Middle East, whether it's Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, keep going. Yeahmen, they have paused this. They are they are a force for evil. To be frank they up until the time of nine to eleven, Hezbola, a group they formed and totally supported, killed more Americans than al Qaeda.

And they had the opportunity President Trump and you know, certainly President Biden as well, gave them all the opportunity to come to the table to come up with an agreement that would have not only you know, started palming down the Middle East, but it would have given sanctions reliefs or would it would have taken that off the burden of their own people, which are very confident, capable, modern and would do quite well in the global economy.

That's all on them. And then the continuous rhetoric, you know, death to Israel, destiny United States. I think this was this needed to happen, and because of the IDF eliminating the air missile defense systems of Iran within the first forty eight hours of their pain. It really took the complexity of our operation, which I'm familiar with them at time I'm depending on, down several notches. But with that said,

hopefully executed planned deception operations. That really shows you why the US is the most capable, competent, and effective military in the world, probably in the world's history, because of technology and how we have learned to use it. So I know it sounds like I'm cheerleader here, but I think it was the right decision. You drop twelve GBU fifty sevens thirty thousand pound munitions on Ford out, I

would be surprised if there's much left. And even if there is something left down there around three hundred feet, I don't know how you get to it. And to be frank, I think we should tell them if you start rebuilding, we're going to do it all again. So just take off the nuclear and think how much Iran has spent on a nuclear program when they could have

spent it on their own. People think how much they have spent a hezbolah, a moss, the hoofies all the militias in Iraka in Syria instead of turning it into

Iran's Response and Regional Implications

something that would have been beneficial to their people. So that's up to the Iranian people to decide. But I think we did make the right decision here, and the military performed extraordinarily.

Speaker 1

Jay, what do you got?

Speaker 5

Yeah, I mean they both said it quite well. But taking how I feel about the administration off the board, I have to agree that it was long overdue, and I don't know, given our forty year history, who else would have done it. I don't necessarily agree with how the aftermath is handled, the press conferences, the you know, the misspeaking and all that other stuff, but I believe that it was it was necessary, and I think now though,

we need to focus on what comes next. Like you know, Mike alluded to, if they start building again, well then they get it again. But I also think that we, meaning us, the Israelis and anyone else getting involved allies need to think about the Iranian people and what comes next, you know, because they're paying the price for this just as much as the Iranian government. And I just got

a message from someone. I don't know how true it is, but apparently the Iranian Parliament voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormoz. I know that's not the beat all end all. It still has to get approved by the Supreme Council. But you know that's a big deal. You know, that's that is the ripple effect starting, the butterfly effects starting.

Speaker 1

So we'll see, Yeah, that's that's what I want.

Speaker 4

That's our biggest concern too. Actually, that was when I came to their retaliatory options. Closing austraighta hermos is probably not something we can stop from happening. Our navy is, as you might guess, the only navy capable of clearing it.

And it's going to take months, and then you're gonna have to convince commercial shipping that it's actually fully cleared, and then they're going to have to convince their insurance company that it's this could that would majorly disrupt the flow of commerce, especially energy.

Speaker 1

Yeah, region iron gas will jump up to over one hundred bucks a barrow or oil.

Speaker 3

Just I'll throw out the running running parliament doesn't mean anything. So it really is going to be their Security Council is going to make that final decision. And so we'll see, I mean you know, I think that's that's clearly that's one of the retaliatory options that might hurt them just

as much in terms of the Iranian economy. But but you know, there are lots of things on the in their toolkit that they can do, whether it's you know, ballistic missile strikes against US forces that you know, kind of uh, using their their very capable global terrorist apparatus to go after US interest anywhere, whether it's embassies, whether it's US military facilities where it's just American tourists. There's a lot of things that the Iranians can do. The

question is, you know, will they do that? Because the US clearly back channeled Iran saying if you do this, much more is coming, and of course we've also overtly said that as well. So I think it's a question of the Iranians having to save face with their own people with the regime, versus really risking much more severe US firepower coming at them. And if anyone tells you what they're going to do, they're lying. We just we

just don't know. But one key point on this, what kind of a whole bunch of US have done in the past. This is why the intelligence community is so important because they're going to be laser focused right now on trying to figure out not only assess analytically, but actually for collection on what Iran is going to do.

So really interesting times ahead, and I just throw out there for discussion, kind of a weird time for the Director of National Intelligence to be on the outs with the President of the United States.

Speaker 1

Yeah, so she took the party line again. She was in the situation shroom yesterday because she said, oh, they can have them within weeks now. Two months ago it was they're not even doing anything and it will be years now. It's all of a sudden, it feels like we're taking Israel's in tel assessments over our own. To be frank and to just spice up this conversation a little bit, Uh, well.

Speaker 3

One thing, one thing on that d I think one thing to Israel has a different calculus. So there's a legitimate debate clearly, what is the new intelligence from this Israeli dossier. But talking to the Israelis after October seventh, you know they're not gonna they don't give a shit about weeks months even clearly arguing over that because there there are talents for risk as much as much lower. And so you know Iran was in the Ironnian nuclear programs,

is an existential threat. The Iranians defenses are so degraded. Now this was a chance to take a shot. And whether their analysts differ with our analysts in terms of you know, John Ratclife, to see how director said, this is like you know, sprinting down the field on a football field, yet you don't go across the goal line. So at the end of the day, I understand the Israeli thinking on that, but I do think there's a legitimate question on from the US side in terms of

analytic assessments. And that's where you know, Congress has to get in and try to figure out exactly what did the Israelis provide? What was the US analytic line?

Speaker 2

You know, is.

Speaker 3

Ratcliffe, the CI director in Tulsa gabber the D and I chief at odds over this. But looking at it from the Israeli perspective, I get it. There they said, you know, we're not we don't really care if we're gonna have an argument in terms of weeks, months, or even a year. It's an ex essential threat, is Iran is vulnerable now and we got to do this.

Speaker 6

Well.

Speaker 1

Yeah, you even heard from Nan Yahoo's speech after they started bombing the Iranian facilities last week that they're a year away, or it could be even a couple of months. So like their assessment to weaponize it, right, because they

Intelligence and Assessment Challenges

have reached the area where it's relatively easy to get the enriched enricheradium to the point where it's weapons grade. I'm going to bring this up. Go ahead and mix.

Speaker 4

Sorry at one point on that there was no reason to do that. They're well past what they would need for all civilian energy or medical right, So they're doing it for a reason. They're at sixty percent. We think it's very it kind of it speeds up as you get higher to the top. Ninety is what it needed. They didn't have to do that. They chose to do that. They did it for a reason. Yeah, and I think I think we all.

Speaker 2

Know the reason.

Speaker 4

Either they were going to do it, or they were trying to put pressure on the US or for to better their negotiation stance, and it was it was It was really dumb either way. They didn't have to do that, and the US has given them options to take enriched uranium up to the needs of a civilian energy program from out of the country like other countries in this region have agreed to. And they could have done it too.

Speaker 1

Yeah uh yeah, talking about the enrichera too. I saw a graft from the Financial Times and it's very interesting in terms of, you know, the times when the uranium wasn't your rich almost at all was during the JCPOA years and in the last couple of years it's gone up pretty dramatically. The same president got us out of the j CPOA and as many beefs as you have for with the j CPO it was an actual diplomatic resolution that that stopped what the Israelis are you know,

you know, screaming from the rooftops about and that's enriched uranium. Frankly, also like also like the chat about you know, we still want a diplomatic diplomatic resolution to this blah blah blah. Is interesting when you know, in one of the initial strikes, the head of the head negotiator gets swacked along with IRGC guys who you know have fun meeting a lah and like you know, other nuclear scientists, is the chief negotiator of the diplomatic talks kind of sends a bad sign.

I would assume, like if you're trying to negotiate a highly complicated nuclear deal.

Speaker 4

The d O D just through the record. Not that matters now, but the d OD is against getting out of the uh. You know, I really withdrawing from the two thousand fifteen JCPOA. It wasn't a perfect agreement, but to your point, d it did keep them well under the limits we could have addressed you know, proxy force operations and other things, because it wasn't addressed in that

and another and other sanctions. And there's there's also a problem with who's gonna enter agreement with us if we can just unilaterally withdraw every time we change, you know, political parties. If you can't honor agreement from a past political party, then you know, it makes a lot of these agreements, unless they're treaties, unless it's ratified, kind of kind of challenged.

Speaker 1

Sure, a little bit more on blowback, just to game it out a little, Like let's say they start shooting some ballistic missiles that you know, Bahrain our embassy in Iraq, or they have they spin up some malicious militias over there to like attack the embassy. Where do we go from there? If we start taking you know, casualties.

Speaker 3

Oh, I think it depends on the casualties. I mean, you know that's gonna that's gonna be you know, if it's a mass casualty event, a lot of Americans are killed, that's gonna engender very severe response. If it's and if

Potential Blowback and Future Scenarios

and there's there's so many other there's so many nuances to this as well. If it's if it's the Iranian shooting off a couple, you know, a whole bunch of ballistic missiles to satisfy their own internal need to do so, and there's no US casualties, and you kind of see it. That's how they call today. I think the US probably will not respond and that. But but the problem with that is that there's a lot of unknowns there, you know, ballistic missile you know, so it's like what you see

in Israel. Sometimes, uh, they can be effective and sometimes they can fall in an empty field. So that's that's why the situation I think is is is so dangerous now and why I'm sure there's there's you know, not just over but certainly messaging that's going on behind the scenes.

And probably probably along with you know, using the offices of our some of our golf allies as well, to try to de escalate this as much as possible, because again, the the you know, President Trump, I don't think he wanted to do this, and of course the maga world is going bananas now because they think it's another kind

of never ending war. If you can manage to kind of just have this be a one off, I think he certainly walks away, probably with his mega coalition still okay, But if we start getting getting at it with the Iranians, that's a whole different story.

Speaker 4

Uh So, anybody they think, they'll probably try to design it similar to their response to the assassination of cost him soul of money. Right, there was a lot of there's a lot of a lot of boom, but not a lot of impact. So they you know, they control the media, so they they say they did a lot more than they did. But to Mark's point, you know, that's a that's a difficult thing to calculate. You know, if you get through and you kill a bunch of Now that said, uh, sitcom did a lot of work

to get people out of harm's way. They moved you know, naval vessels out of Bahrain and move aircraft at an Allied aid. They I wasn't joking when I was like my hotel I was just in was full of people who had been moved out to the point where they would have hit it. They will hit an empty base in a in a golf country. Uh And they or doesn't have a lot of friends, but they're they're gonna lose a lot if they start just watching ballistic missiles uh,

into these neighboring golf countries. So it's it's a risk on many levels.

Speaker 1

Uh So, Prior prior to all the spin up to this, like there was always talk and we've talked about it many times on the show about how if we did hit the nuclear facilities, it would really only set it back six months to a year, right there a nuclear program, What if that's the case, even though we did drop twelve or fourteen gbus and like you would assume that's like fucking mush there. Now, you did see each other some satellite photos as well of trucks leaving the ford

Ou facility like hours before the strike. So let's say they moved the enricheranium to another facility, they said, is Fahan is a lot more as a fortified or almost as fortified as Fordau was, or is what happens if you know, our BDA is done and then like Intel comes out that we really have it, like completely wiped it off the off the map and they can reconstitute it within a year or something like that. What's the move there? Just continue to.

Speaker 3

Hit them maybe, I mean so again, that's why the intelligence collection is so important and the BDA, you know, But ultimately I think this this should be seen kind of as part of a kind of longer term campaign and these Raelies will see that this for sure, and perhaps they're the ones who are going to do are going to hit it again. One of the things though, is that you know, so many people are making this comment.

I mean, I'm guilty of this as well. So you know, the last thing I want to do is go on program like this or on TV talk about you know, the interest causes of enriched uranium. I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. It's in the same thing. So in terms of how much is the Iranian program degraded, well, there's a couple of things that we know, Uh, Israel

killed you know nine of the leading nuclear scientists. They also destroyed the archive of the Iranian program, which was important because that's the kind of the historical knowledge of it.

Speaker 1

Uh.

Speaker 3

They're going there meticulously, going after five of these six sites. So you know, the idea that it's only been a bit degraded, I mean, I think when when people start saying that there's a there's a political bent to this,

I think it's going to be pretty significant. But we also shouldn't say it's been obliterated, like I think the President and Pete Hexa said, because nobody says that, you know, kind of the sober people in the national security world will will say, you know it, uh, and there'll be some kind of assessment on it. But I think it's not going to be in the in the in the realm of months. Clearly, it will be in the realm

of years. And and that's something that I think that Israeli an US national scurity planners probably thought was enough to take such type of action. But to say it's going to be obliterated gets a little silly. And of course to say that it's it's only been degraded a couple months, same thing. Come on, there's just too much that's happened.

Speaker 4

True, I agree, and I think said, oh, sorry, Jason, go ahead, man. I was just gonna short briefly say, you know, we don't know, we don't know, so the intelligence community, I mean obviously biased, so as Mark should lead this effort to determine how much it was degraded. You know, is it a year, is it two years? Is there something that we don't know in the works

that wasn't struck. Iron promised to get a nuclear weapon or take every step possible to get a nuclear weapon if they were struck, And now I can you know, if we're looking at it from their perspective, that's even more important. So the threat isn't over. I think we have to be very careful not to you know, do a touchdown dance and act like this is this is over.

The Role of Resistance Movements in Iran

It's it's simply a part of a larger, uh, you know, effort against Iron, all their destabilitions, destabilizing actions in the in the region, and their pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, go ahead.

Speaker 5

Sorry, No, it's just just my two cents added to this. And I'm like Mark, I'm not a nuclear scientist. I don't know anything about this. Stuff. We also have to take an account the i a e as uh monitoring of the release of radiology you know, radiation or radiological you know, debris whatever, because it may not even be safe for them to go back in there and restart the program. We we just don't know. So it's it's a bunch of unknown unknowns.

Speaker 3

So good count good fun Hey, I got something funny for you.

Speaker 2

Tell me so.

Speaker 3

And I'm reading us off of of social media, so I can't claim credit for this. But there is some weird, kind of like sexual thing with these names of these operations rising good Night Hammer. It sounds like rectile dysfunction supplements.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, come on, yeah, that's what they call me. When I get it, I get a little bit too drunk and I start texting my ex girlfriends at midnight, so.

Speaker 3

I gotta go to mix. You're at senior levels of d D. Who makes up these names?

Speaker 4

I don't know, I don't know. I mean they got a sense of humor, you know, I don't know.

Speaker 3

I can't tell you because I actually Operation town.

Speaker 2

Yeah, these names are going to start popping.

Speaker 4

Up, probably probably the lance corporal in the Marine Corps.

Speaker 3

That's probably, Yes, I thought i'd throw that out there.

Speaker 1

They might have like a name generator, like a random name generator.

Speaker 2

Somebody somebody's projecting.

Speaker 1

Midnight Hammer does sound like a gas station dick pill.

Speaker 3

Sorry podcast.

Speaker 1

I mean, I'm pretty much like for the most part done with all my notes and stuff like that. With the weird thing is like, how you know, obviously this

Conclusion and Future Considerations

is taking you know, this is above the fold. This is like what everyone's talking about. But like, you know, Gaza still going on. Uh Israel you know, does on occasion go into Syria and hit areas in there, Lebanon as well, mostly Gaza, right, because what's going on, especially at the eight station, the last eight stations in the last few days, people going to get food and they get smoked by the IDEF. So I don't want to

like people to forget what's going on there. Obviously the Iranian regime is bad news and no one's a fan of them. Oh, I want to get your assessments on. Like there is a there is a message coming out of the White House in the administration where like, oh, we don't want regime change or whatever, which they're saying that because they want to play cake half to their half of their base that like, we're not going to send troops in, it's not going to be another war

like we're used to. Who are outside of the regime? Who are like who are there? Who's the resistance in Iran that could I know, we see the shaw now or the Shaws the turn Prince out on doing hits and stuff like that on TV. But the actual resistance in and around who could possibly be the people that take the mantle if the regime were to fail fall?

Speaker 7

That is a good question.

Speaker 3

I mean, it's the people. And so there's been popular uprisings in Iran against the regime when we saw this with of course the all the p us against the Hijab. So there's and there's tremendous popular discontent. But you know, is there is there some kind of resistance movement to support? I mean, you know there there are certainly groups there, but I think we got to be really careful.

Speaker 1

Uh.

Speaker 3

And and I think the administration is one hundred percent right. Uh, you know, whether they're doing it to playcate their base, but you know, don't go down that road of promoting this now. If things happen kind of organically, that's a that's a different story. But let me throw one thing for Jason, UH and Mick and d before we leave, because you look at this, and you know, President Trump has I think, undertaken an action which a lot of

us who've been his critics are applauding now. But there but we're not consistent on doing the right thing because we are still kind of in the process of a banning Ukraine. And I think that's a point as as Trump is being lauded for this from many of us in kind of the National security blob, but Ukraine's still out there and there's no signs that we're going to

do anything in terms of supporting, uh, the Ukrainians. And so one of the things in kind of the Ukrainian circles that I kind of dabble in is that there is some concern there that this uh, this uh you certainly is not not necessarily going to distract, but that that hey, you know, prop might be lauded for this, but hey, what about us, your guys thoughts?

Speaker 2

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know.

Speaker 4

I just don't know how much UH support the Shaw you know, has in Iran, so I can't speculate. I'm guessing probably not that much. And I talked to people out here in the Gulf who share that opinion, so I'll defer to them. There's a lot of different groups in Iran. It's not homogeneous society. They got a lot of courage me and marks folks, if you will, there's plenty of groups that would and the people in general, like every woman in Iran, would like to see this change.

I mean, they're completely oppressed in in a in in a horrible way. And I think any any young person that wants a chance that modernity wants to get away from them. But that has to be organic. If we try to, you know, do it again like we've done this before in our at least you own it right and and then it's not organic, and then whoever comes next will play to that. But the other point for Ukraine, I totally agree we did the right thing here. We're

not doing the right thing in Ukraine. They shouldn't have any doubt. Did they get one hundred percent support from the United States. We're the leader of the free world. They're a democratic country that was invaded unlawfully and unprovoked by Russia, who is one of our top two adversaries. And I'd say our most dangerous one if we've abandoned them.

Speaker 3

The look what we could have done or could be doing, you know, yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah, may differences. Russia has nuclear weapons, not the reason why, like we're not actually doing pushing it all the life.

Speaker 3

Argue we have an overblown panic and worry over their use of nuclear weapons.

Speaker 1

Sure, that's what really, you.

Speaker 3

Know, tainted some of the Biden administration's really good things they did was that they were always hand ringing over this, and clearly Trump feels the same.

Speaker 4

I think we should have said before it started, since we had obviously very good intelligence that it was going to happen, we should have told Russia, if you go in, we're going to support them one hundred percent. We're going to give them every weapon that they need to defend themselves. So like Market alluding to not wringing our hands on F sixteen's and Abram tanks and atackms, and we should have just said, hey, it was your choice. You invaded

that country we're now supporting. We wouldn't be supporting them if you wouldn't have done that. But we didn't do that, and we put ourselves in a in a buying I think. But that's a buying that we created.

Speaker 2

It's a buying we could have changed, and it's not too late to change it. I still do it. Two things to be truer once we can do what we did and Iran and still say okay, Russia back to you.

Speaker 3

You know, so it ain't gonna happen No, yea fury.

Speaker 1

Yeah it's gonna happen either. All right, make it out of here. Thanks for stopping, Thanks for staying safe to.

Speaker 3

Worried about.

Speaker 1

Yeah, get room service. Let me know what the room service man.

Speaker 2

Me some of those mints off of the pillow. All right, thanks, you'd be surprised.

Speaker 4

What I'm next up is.

Speaker 3

Probably but where do we where do we find such brave man?

Speaker 4

Well, apparently at five Stars hotels.

Speaker 3

By the way, we're gonna fel shitty and we're gonna have to cut this.

Speaker 1

All right, just to wrap up, Thanks Mick for that. Of course. Check out mixed links that are in the description. One more time, mark your new podcast, The Crisis Room with Mark Urban Amber Rudd Some Heavyweights. Amber Round being a former Home Secretary of the United Kingdom. Mark Urban, a distinguished investigative journalist, wrote a great book about the essays and does a ton more work. You can find it everywhere wherever you find your podcast. The links will

be in the the script. You could check out mark there. I just wanted to get a link in there before we like ended. Uh, just to wrap up, I'm worried about the blowback, to be honest, right, Yeah, I mean we did touch on it slightly and stuff like that, but yeah, I mean in terms of the blowback, because what happens if they do kill five or so servicemen and women and we're We're not really the type of country that's going to take that lightly.

Speaker 3

Yep, right, right, So there's there's consider that you should be worried. I mean, you know, nothing is you know,

nothing is free. There's cost benefit analysis, and clearly the president had received uh uh, and I would say, you know, direct analytic assessment saying that you know this is this there might be RUnni in retaliation and so obviously we're trying to dissuade them from doing anything, but they certainly could and there's Americans could be harmed because there's one One of the interesting things to note though, is that in my when I was working with the Israelis over

the years, they're actually much more willing to take casualties. Twenty four Israelies have been killed, uh in that they're kind of the ballistic missile fire from Iran. I think if twenty four Americans are killed, there is going to be an absolute you know, uh political kind of uh nuclear meltdown. No pun intended here, but the Israelis are certainly more more more willing to take casualties than we are.

Speaker 5

Yeah, and I think, uh, well, since last night, I've gotten numerous texts and phone calls about here in the home in the United States, you know, should we be worried? Everybody and everybody used the term sleeper cells, you know, I guess because that's the thing that's being touted in the media.

Speaker 2

You know. So they're like, what should we do?

Speaker 5

And I'm like, okay, well you're stay vigilant as always, but live your life. But it is a legit concern from people closer to home, including my mom.

Speaker 2

She called me, She's like, are you gonna be up? I'm like, I'm sitting in Pennsylvania, you know.

Speaker 3

But Jason is a key thing on this. We also take I mean, so obviously the FBI should be honest, but it's also an FBI that who's mantra under the new leadership has changed. They're running around doing border stuff and going after cartels, and so have the Joint Terrorism Task Forces. You know, have they been kind of seeing limited personnel and resources? You know, are we up to

the task right now? As there as the as so much of the attention and local law or federal law enforcement, but domestically has moved to the border.

Speaker 1

I don't know, just seems like a lot of chaos. And now my next question, Jason's perfect spot on, was like, yeah, in terms of like hitting us here, what are the

chances of that happening? I mean, I'm sure uh Iran's got their hands full at the present moment because my buddy asked me the same thing, and I'm like, listen, even if we did trade fire and stuff like that, they probably are using a lot of their bandwidth in terms of like protecting themselves right now to be like giving commandic controls over But in a year or so, like they don't forget, right, and if the regime is still around in a year or so, what's to stop

them from doing something on American soil? And once that happens, it's game on We're gonna forget the last twenty five years and it's be like, let's invade another country again. You know, let's get these guys eating French fries, you know, American may French fries. Let's build some Let's build some burger kings in Tehran. Yeah, it's gonna be a crazy couple of weeks. See where it goes. Israel has continued.

Israel initially after the bombing went down last night, said that they were going to hold off on bombing Iran again. They have since started to bomb Iran again solid twelve hours and they say the reason why is for other goals that are trying to be reached, other goals. I don't know what that means. Mark, Maybe you can enlighten me. My layman.

Speaker 3

Ass Well, they're going off to the ballistic missile capably, obviously going after the launchers, but also the kind of the whole production factories, the whole kind of Iranian military industrial complex. Look, Israel has their boot on the neck of Iran. It is insane for them to stop now. They do have to kind of keep in mind how far do they are they going to go? And in

terms of if the regime is threatened. But let's be careful on having these rallies or dictating to them what they're going to do in terms of kind of continuing on, and at some point they will stop. You know, these the the other part of the Israelis are probably running out of interceptors. In terms of their own air defense. The pace for their air force has been just brutal and so so I wouldn't expect this to last all that much longer if there is no significant running in retaliation.

Speaker 1

Oh. Brother, A lot of questions coming up, So guys, keep it, keep your eyes on this. I mean, obviously everybody will be Marcus was great. Thanks, any any last thoughts.

Speaker 5

No, I mean, like Mark just said, I think Israel is going to do what Israel does. I don't think it's going to do any good for us to tell them, hey, it's time to stop. They're going to stop when they're ready and when they need to. I don't This is kind of outside of what we were just talking about. But I don't see regime change anytime soon. Honestly, I think everybody's just gonna, you know, do the whole Hey, you got popped in the mouth Iran. You know it

can happen again. You hit, we hit you with the right, We got a left. You know, I think it's just now wait and see and uh, you know, just be on our toes.

Speaker 1

Mark pie Moreopolis, MSNBC contributor The Crisis Froom new podcast. Check it out. The links into this description really good one. I've been enjoying the episodes, All the boys, Andy Mick All our links areing the description. If you want to find out more, check it out down there. And the best way to support the show you get both the Teamhouse and Eyes on ad free and early, is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. That's the best way you can support the show. Please do. And yeah, guys, thanks

for this. This is great great good.

Speaker 2

To see Mark, you too. Take care.

Speaker 7

Hey guys, it's Jack.

Speaker 6

I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show.

Speaker 7

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Speaker 6

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Speaker 7

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Speaker 6

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Speaker 7

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