The DC Shooter Worked for CIA | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS - podcast episode cover

The DC Shooter Worked for CIA | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Dec 01, 202553 min
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Episode description

In this episode, the hosts discuss various geopolitical issues, including a recent shooting incident involving National Guardsmen, the implications of PTSD on military personnel, and the challenges faced by Afghan allies seeking immigration to the U.S. They also delve into the effectiveness of special operations forces in military engagements, particularly in the context of Venezuela, where military action is being considered. The conversation touches on the legal and ethical complexities surrounding military orders and the importance of congressional oversight in foreign policy decisions.
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00:00 Start
01:25 The Shooting Incident and Its Implications
09:44 Understanding PTSD and Its Impact on Veterans
16:38 The Role of Afghan Allies and Immigration Challenges
20:06 The Efficacy of Special Operations in Modern Warfare
25:04 Trust and Partnership in Military Operations
30:27 The Role of Advisors in Warfare
36:17 Venezuela: Military Action and Its Implications
45:55 Legal and Ethical Considerations in Military Orders

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Transcript

Intro / Opening

Speaker 1

Hey guys, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm Dmitia con Tacos. I'm here with Mick Molroy Andy Milburn going on as usual. Start off with, we had that shooting incident that happened in d C where two National guardsmen were shot. I believe one has passed away over the weekend. The other one is in critical condition. You know, it was a former Afghany He wasn't he wasn't a command though. He was a translator, right that worked for like the zero units that were connected with

the CIA. With the CIA, Mick, you obviously have you know, pretty intimate knowledge about what you know, what the units were doing there and stuff like that. I saw a lot going on in terms of not I guess politically where like you know, the administration pulled away like Eddie and all immigration and versus for like any pending visas for folks coming from Afghanistan to the United States. So there's it's become kind of this like back and forth.

You see it in the veteran community and people who have worked with you know, indigenous folks that helped us, you know tremendously. You probably wouldn't have been able to do any of the things we did there without them. They're kind of being demonized and stuff. And obviously what this guy did was abhorrent and fucking horrible and he should rot in jail. But I don't think that, you know,

The Shooting Incident and Its Implications

labels the entire community, right, So, Nick, what are you thinking about like that? I know you have You're pretty tight with you know, you know these a lot of these people and stuff like.

Speaker 2

That, so you have intimate knowledge.

Speaker 3

Okay, So I don't know this individual specifically, and I agree that this was a deplorable, cowardly act and the person that did it should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. And now that this young soldier has pass who is simply doing her duty, the fullest ex center of the law is going to include potential for the death. So my thoughts are with the surviving soldier, the staff startant, and obviously the family of both.

Speaker 2

It's just.

Speaker 3

Horrible. I do agree that don't condemn the entirety of the group based on the depraved actions of one individual. If you look at this year alone, we've had a service member run a car through people in New Orleans. We had been killed, fourteen people we had another one. So the first one was the soldier. Second one that I am just off the top of my head to attact the church in Michigan Marine. The third one that I can think up the top of my head shut

people on a pier in North Carolina. Another marine. So obviously marble on all fronts, but we don't condemn the army in the Marine Corps, and it's entirety for the actions of those individuals. So that's where i'd start, And yes, I'm very familiar. There's a certain restrictions on what I can say the person. To my knowledge, and this isn't from my bitten knowledge from being in the service, in the in the agencies, just from the press releases he was.

He was an assaulter with one of the one of the main units that we had over there, and he according to the media, ten years he was in service. And I can tell you that that unit saw some of the hardest fighting in Afghanistan. It was almost NonStop, right, So even if you look at folks that went over there and came back when over then came back on our side, these guys never left. So it was it

was operations every night. I would like to point out, although it's not really relevant to this, is this idea that they were like a walking human rights violation is patently untrue. And if it was the case, then there's a whole generation of CIA officers and military officers that condoned it, and essentially we're okay with it because we were completely embedded in charge. So I just find that to be It's one of those things each as you

can't defend itself because we can't really talk. But it's just untrue, whether it's you know, a foreign journalist writing it or a US And if it is the case, then they should have a they should have had a DJ investigation, and the oversight committee should be going crazy. But you know why they're not because it's not true.

Speaker 2

That's it.

Speaker 3

So on on, and I don't know the exact process. I was involved with the TF Dunkirk and this is long after I got out of the government of helping get Afghans that worked with US out and in this special visa process, which is a law that was passed, and I think the two thousand and nine NDA which gave the criteria, and I do believe that we had an obligation to get the ones out that met that with the strong caveat that they still have to be vetted, and if they're a threat to the United States, then

that would avoid the obligation, right. I think inherent any obligation to bring you in and make you a potential citizen is that you're not a threat to our fellow citizens. So I do think what should happen here is they should follow the facts. This could it's probably a PTSD thing. I don't know that, but if I'm looking at what happened a revolver driving across the country, the ambush style thing. But again, the fact should lead, or the facts lead,

not speculation by me or anybody else. I don't think there's a problem with, uh, you know, reviewing our vetting process. But I think we should accept that any vetting process is mitigation of a threat. It's never going to be elimination of a threat. And that includes us like going into the military or the CIA, or you know, vetting to be a doctor or a lawyer or whatever it's it is. I think we have a very effective system. There's nothing wrong with reviewing it to determine whether we

actually do That's one side of this. I also would strongly urge not condemning an entire population of people based on the actions of one. Obviously that's a American, but some of the you know, the flip side not of that, but the flip side of relooking at who we're letting in is a lot of these countries don't have records. They don't actually have what we need to do vetting.

Not not this SIV because we kept those records, but a lot of people coming in from some countries like there isn't anything there there, they can't really inspect it. It's might understand. If if that's not true, then then I don't know why we would have a band on them. If it is true, then we're going to need to review that. But that because this expanded from this individual in this program to like everybody coming from you know, is it thirty countries, I would just caution that that

should be reviewed. But ultimately, if we can do solid vetting, I don't think they should be restricted, but we should really look at our processes. I think that's very fair. But hopefully and I saw several people who have been champions start coming out of these groups, and I, you know, on behalf of them. I appreciate that, because it's not easy to be talking about this right now. From that perspective.

It's way easier just to be the one saying them all out and all that, and that's just not I think fair, just like it wouldn't be fair.

Speaker 4

To veterans to base the base are a value and worth on individuals that might have had a psychological event.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I you know it. Whenever anything like this happens, there is always a surge of kind of a desire understandable in the public for vengeance. Right It's kind of closing the door, the stable door after the horse has bolted. And yes, the you know, the crimes are horrific, and so everyone feels compelled, of course to say to express rightfully sympathy for the victims. But these are such complex issues, right you know, make you mention that PTSD was likely involved,

It was likely involved. You know, you mentioned to the scale of combat that these units were in, and you know, I wish you could talk a little bit more about about the you know, in general terms about these units, because yes, indeed they were and a degree of combat and for a period far longer than most American troops could even imagine you know, Americans rotated in and out, but the Afghans and the Iraqis, for that matter, they

lived these wars. There was no escape from them. Again, you know, every time we start talking about this, we feel compelled to say, but what they did was horrible.

Understanding PTSD and Its Impact on Veterans

But you know, PTSD is an awful thing too, you know, And that sounds like such a vapid, facile thing to say, But it it changes people traumatically, all right, I mean, doesn't it? You know, I mean it it makes good people do bad things.

Speaker 3

We know that.

Speaker 2

We have seen that, there's no denying it. We've been you know, on a on a on a on a different scale. We've all known guys who've come back and taken their own lives as a as a result of PTSD. And and in every case that I've known of, in the months, sometimes years before they have taken their lives, they were no longer the individuals that they used to be. So again, I mean, this isn't this isn't just an empty rant about the tragedy of life. It's it's it's a fact that we cannot you know, we want to

feel this desire for vengeance. We want to strike back, We want to now say, okay, ban every Afgham from ever coming in. But that's not the solution, you know, because the problems that course, what the things that have happened, are infinitely more complex. It's the same thing with the Marines you mentioned making the discussions that we had leading

up to to the you know this podcast. The two Marines who did horrific things and murdered innocent people, right and you look back though at their create, they weren't always like that. So what changed them? You know? Again? And okay, so what you know, what's the solution. What

the solution obviously isn't to let these people off. And there's a solution perhaps is to look, I mean, there's multiple things, but it's a social issue, deeply buried social issue, and the answer is not simply to cut off immigration. And last thing I was saying this, Mick, I'm sure you agree. I like saying that anyway because it gives me some sense of authority. But you know, this country's made it hard enough for Afghan veterans, the friends of

the United States to come in. The last thing that we need to do is make it even more difficult. That's that's my opinion. You know, we've deserted our allies in many ways. We've we've raised barriers, we've left them, you know, not just Afghans, you name it. I mean before them to some extent, the Rockies, uh, and and of course you know the Vietnamese. I mean, we haven't been good about about enabling people who have helped us in these wars to come to the United States. We

don't need to raise even more barriers. That's just my thought, good point.

Speaker 3

And we have a long history of unfortunately leaving our allies behind, and and and then the community, you know, military Intel, Special operations community stepping up. Right. So I'm in Montana. If you go down to Missoula, and you know, on a Saturday during the summer right now, now, there's a farmer's market and you get there and you'll see a bunch of moms, a lot of mark and they have most beautiful vesteras by the way, and you're like, how did you guys get here? Well, how did they

get here? Because a bunch of CI paramilitary and UH military Special operations vets brought them from Laos when we decided we didn't want to do that anymore. And all those people were going to get slaughtered a lot, brought them, brought them over and Vietnam. Right, So there's now there's a memorial UH in Arlington. Not a lot of people

know it, but you can. You can google it and find it to our indigenous partners from Lewes and Vietnam and their service to the United States turned that conflict. That's not any different with the Afghans who put it all on the line, and quite frankly they've been annihilated by the Taliban for working with us. So I'm all about making sure that they are sound and not a threat. I think if they're going to review things now, they

should also review who is helping them, right. So lots sometimes you get into a status where you can be here but you can't work. Think of the problem with that, right So, if there's something keeping somebody from going get gainfully employment and then we're complaining about them not being employed, you can see the problem there, right. So, And I understand there's a lot of bureaucracy and there's only so

much folks can do. But I think if we're going to do a review, if we see here, we ought to also do a review to how to help people essentially help themselves. So if they're in some status that doesn't allow them to work, let's change that. Let's change that and let them work and basically make a living and not be you know, a burden to others, either taxpayers or other folks. It's a big part. It's a big issue of self worth. I think we all know that.

So let's let's review it for everything, both suitability to be here and what are we doing to make them successful, because that's I think in all of our interests in society at large. But again, absolutely horrible event, and I certainly understand and sharing the.

Speaker 2

Outage big What can you tell us about the program that he was involved in?

Speaker 3

So it's it's you know, obviously I don't I usually just talk analytical stuff. But there's a lot out there on this program. And already it's a sensitive issue, you know, because it's easy to write about CI stuff and then write all this bad stuff and the CIA doesn't generally doesn't answer. So I want to take the opportunity to

point out that that's not the case. And I can tell you there's there's people in the US military Special Operations, you know, SOCOLM all the way to the top and the HC all the way to the top that have worked on these programs and spent a lot of time

years like myself, with these programs. They I think, to put it bluntly, we would have lost thousands of more soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines if it wasn't for these units, not just what they're referring to is the zero units, but also the commandos and the other units that worked directly with the US military exclusively. If it wasn't for them, we would have lost Meek and google how many casualties they had.

Those would have been Americans, right And by the time we left in that really disaster withdrawal, very few Americans were on the front lines. We were losing, y had very few casualties, which is why I was so opposed to just the way we left, rather than leaving a residual force. We largely got to that position because of

The Role of Afghan Allies and Immigration Challenges

these other units stepped up to the fight and they did so without hesitation, and I think that has to be remembered. Another interesting point for these particular units is there was never a friendly fraticide ever, and that was, you know, a unfortunate occurrence in other units but we

never had one, we never won attempted one. In fact, when I was at the Pentagon, I would be asked as they did a review of the whole Green on Blue fratriccide in Afghanistan, and I was pulled in, not as you know, the policy guy, but the guy who spent a lot of time with these units. And the question was why. I think it is because we were completely embedded with them. We had folks that went back continuously to the same area. And you know, I'm not

saying that wasn't done. It just wasn't really done but by the military. And I don't really know the answer, but that it's important point and it's actually been studied. So the idea that this person would come here and then do this is just it's it's an anathema to me, and it's just horrible obviously for the individuals, but also for the community and everything that's been done by so many people to try to help these folks get into

the United States. I just hope we review that and do the right thing going forward, and that's both the security of our citizens and also carrying out our obligations to those that should be here.

Speaker 2

You know, picking up on something that you just kind of mentioned, Mick, that perhaps people don't realize now because it's been a long time, but it's been eleven years since really the conventional war in Afghanistan ended. I know people are going to critique me for that, but that's true. Conventional troops pulled out basically in twenty fourteen, and from then on the war was being fought by units like the Agency and by special operations forces I with them

through Afghan forces. You know, obviously in the end the war was not successful, but by and large those efforts were more successful I'm generalizing here than than our conventional type operations. And that's kind of that's kind of a trend, right wouldn't you agreement? See how I do that? But you know, the the lighter touch that we have with

more specialist troops, the better we do. Know, you think about El Salvador, you think about Columbia, you think about the Afghanistan after twenty fourteen, as you put it, that we were continuing the war. You know, we we were holding ground, We were doing relatively well with very with relatively low casualties because of our use of indigenous troops and special operations troops. It's a really it's kind of

an interesting comment. And yet when we go in large scale conventional forces, we kind of make ourselves a target, and operating that sort of environment insurgency does require, it requires specialist troops. People are going to disagree with me

The Efficacy of Special Operations in Modern Warfare

for that, but it does. You know, I think about our time and I was with a conventional infantry unit. I was commander of a conventional infantry battalion before I went over to special operations, and yeah, we did you know, of course we I'd like to say we did a great job, and but we paid heavily for it. And the average battalion going through Ambar back then was losing.

You know, this is no exaggeration, between twenty five and forty five sometimes higher than that dead and several hundred wounded, and our gains were very temporary. But then going back as a commander of a Siegure SODIF where we took very few casualties, we you know, we were able to

have a tremendous effect on the Islamic state. Yes, different environment, but my point is simply this that that that is I think an important thing to learn about going ahead, that that the light touch you know, is maybe we consider going into Venezuela now that it's that that the big invasions just don't work so well for us, right, But the influence, the putting in of highly trained teams to work with indigenous forces, that's worked pretty well over the years, even.

Speaker 3

In campaigns things did not I agree. In fact, I mean, we obviously have the best, most powerful military in the world. Conventional forces are what's going to be necessary to fight win wars, right, But the long term irregular warfare type scenarios of counterinsurgency, Uh, it's it's in many ways counterproductive.

It's counterproductive as it tends to build more insurgents. It's kind of inductive because it's very i mean politically sensitive, which matters in the democracy when you see you know, young men and women be coming back and wars that don't have an end date. So it's it's absolutely that we have the ability to do partner force operations in these long term low intensity conflict although they don't look so low intensity to the people that are in them,

but you know what I mean, it's imperative. So and this is now you can see how this is coming back around on each other in order to have the ability to do this, you have to have trust. You don't have if you don't maintain your obligations. If it's simply everything's temporary and no commitment is valid, it's going to make it very difficult for the US to do

significant partner force operations in the future. And not that I'm running to get into the next one at all, but if it happens, we have to have the ability to do that. And it really is a combination of the advisors for lack of a better description, and the force itself. It's a combination of the two. You can't choose to have like some remote proxy force like Iran

doesn't expect it to be that effective. It has to be the combination which fuses experience, operational place planning, intelligence, support, all these things in with a unit that's willing and able to have this joint mission and of course about by human rights, just like it was a US unit. But that's going to be necessary going forward. You never know what's going to happen, and we tend to find ourselves in more regular wars than we do conventional wars,

but we have to be ready for both. And I think I think this kind of ties the two together. And I know, I think we're talking about Venezuela next, hopefully we're talking about a long term counter insurgency operation there. We need to have the capacity in our in our in our quiver, if you will, going forward. You know, I was I was there when we did the irregular

war formatics. That was a big part of it. You know, we got to understand that the history of warfare is primarily, if you look at the majority of them, irregular, right, So we have to be able to do both, and one's not better than the other or anything like that. Conventional forces, you know, if there's you know, if there's a Third World War, you know, the special operations folks like myself and Andy are going to be I think participants.

But aside THEO compared to you know, the major efforts are going to be conventional, but the irregular wars, we've got to be ready to to fight it. Part of it is having a h a word that you could trust from other groups around the world.

Speaker 2

You know. The the other thing that that I thought was very interesting that you said about the low number of incidents of green on blue and by the way, for everyone green on blue is when we refer to that as intentional fratricite right from our partner nation indigenous forces, and that became a prevalent trend in Afghanistan sadly for a period of time towards the end of conventional force involvement.

Is with these these advisor teams were taking casualties not from the Taliban, well from hidden Taliban, as it were

Trust and Partnership in Military Operations

among Afghan troops, and yet among the special operations forces those incidents were far lower. And I think you know what is different. I think part of it is, and again you hit on this, Mick, was just the nature of how we operate. Those Special operations forces operate deeply embedded in indigenous forces. They don't go home in the evening to a separate camp. You know, the contrast was

clearly there in Afghanistan. You can look at the you can look at the numbers and the fact that yes, fratricide where it did occur on the special abrations side, but it was at a lower level rate. And in Iraq it was almost unheard of among special oberations forces. And yet it did occur amongst somebody advised sin sutly

against conventional forces. I mean in Mosall two thousand and five, for Mares, one of the worst suicide bombings in Iraq against US troops occurred and was and you know, sadly, an Iraqi soldier blew himself up in the in the mess hall on Farb Mares killed fourteen soldiers, number of

contractors and some locals. And yet you know, I was in Mosall at the time, living in a ruined hospital with Iraqi in Iraqi company, with you know, six other gringos and same you know, literally living in the same room as these guys, and it never it just never occurred to us, you know, even after that incident. And I think it gets to you know, why why am I talking about this, because it gets into the nature of what special operations do.

Speaker 3

Right.

Speaker 2

Our security is that that trust, that that sense of shared danger with people. And I know, for instance, serving in Iraqi with an Iraqi battalion as advisor, I know some of those dudes were bad dudes, but for some reason they didn't try and kill us, you know, because we were maybe just too close to them, I don't know, but it didn't happen. But again, it gets back to this mentality of what is security right, security is not is not, and the Israelis are learning this, will learn this,

have learned this. Security isn't putting yourself behind layers of security fences and high tech automated weapons, et cetera, et cetera. Security comes from really understanding not just your adversary, but but you know the population, the people you're working with, what motivates them. And as hoky though it may sound, it comes with sharing their experiences and the danger with them.

And the last thing I'll say on that is so returning as Sugere Sot of command to Iraq in twenty sixteen, when there was this policy of remote advice and assists.

I don't know if you remember that. You know where you virtual advice and assists, right, You had this virtual kit that that you could give your partner and they went on and fort the enemy, the Islamic state, and you've stayed on the fob and you could track them like it was a game, right, and you knew whether lead trace were so you could call in air support. And there were people who really thought that was going

to work just as well as having soft teams. Moving with living with Iraqi, you know Iraqi and Kurdish security forces and of course we learned that, No, it doesn't. In the end, we ended up having to accompany them, and of course you do. And there's always going to be that human element. It's never going to be replaced by technology, and that is you know, that's your security, and that's your that's your path to successfully in those environments.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and if I could, I'll throw in some for d here. There's a pretty famous episode in Greek history during the Peloponnese and war in Sicily. Right. So, Sicily was aligned with Sparta, Uh, and the Athenians had decided to go take out basically a proxy partner with Sparta. Sparta could you know, obviously was out numbered during the whole Peloponnesian War, couldn't send too many, so they send what would be what work we would call advisors, like six of them.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 3

And if there's a it's actually written about as the Athenians were coming up Uh and they were trying to take the last last elevated area that the Sicilians were in control of, and then they saw the scarlet capes, right,

they saw the Spartans standing there, uh. And part of it was just already the Spartans had the reputation of you know, the ultimate warrior, and part of it they didn't know how much, how many more Spartans would be coming, but it completely changed the bat It inspired the Sicilians, It challenged the fortitude of the Athenians who were slaughtering

the Sicilians until then. And so I use that often because it really does, I think, show what advisors, which special operation forces, green Berets, Seals, Marsac raiders, paramilitary folks

The Role of Advisors in Warfare

can do with a willing and capable indigenous partner force. And it's not new obviously, that was Melbany's war, but it has that effect, and I think we could do a lot more which would save a lot of American lives if we embrace that as one of our main models in a regular warfare. And it can play a part obviously in a substantial conventional fight too, right because that as we saw in the last twenty years, we had both going on at the same time. So it's

almost always relevant. And I know this is we've gotten now talking about partner forces, but it does have relevance to what we started, which is this.

Speaker 2

Yeah, this isn't that well hugely, you know, and I think I think conventional forces understand that. But but they but I don't think that, for instance, Army Marine call leadership has struck the right turn in how do you select and train these guys? Right, it's not any soldier marine can do this type of stuff. That's why Special operations guys tend to be so good at it. But

they're so but they're low density, high demands. So you know, there are being efforts like building these s FAB brigades which have now been you know that that plan has been abandoned. And in the Marine Corps, I know we what does s FAB mean? Security force assistance? Right brigades? So they were brigades whose sole mission was to do

what we were talking about, working with indigenous forces. The British had formed a radar regiment, a ranger regiment right out of you know, it's not it's mission not the same as US radar regiment. Sorry ranger, I keep defaulting to.

Speaker 3

The real well too, wept included them.

Speaker 2

Yeah, but you know, but they formed a ranger regiment out of three infantry battalions. In their purpose was security force assistance, which is, you know, working with foreign militaries. Because everyone realizes that, yeah, that's that is one of

the aspects, liking aspects future war. And we could talk on this show about the rise of private military companies too, and the the resurgence of private military companies across the battlefield where you're talking Ukraine from our experience, you know, most recently in Israel, because they fulfill a lot of you know, a lot of functions of course, using soldiers to do the same things a little bit different the

government's and more skin in the game. But nevertheless, the principles are saying that you're you're leveraging foreign forces to do frankly, your dirty work, right to take the casualties through the brunt of the fighting. And it's it's it's a good idea, but striking that right formula of using the right guys, because again not every soldier or marine makes a good advisor. So you have to have some

kind of selection process. Maybe it doesn't have to be as tight as the Special Operations selection process, but you need something.

Speaker 1

There is a unit called the what's it seesaw in Canada, I think they do it and also like direct action.

Speaker 2

There, it's Canadian Special Aberations Regiment. Yeah, very very similar actually in makeup to the Marine Raider Regiment. We I had conting of those guys in the seat is so deaf and a rock. They're very very good for Canadians.

Speaker 1

We just had a guy onto a few weeks back on the team house that was in Seesaw.

Speaker 2

Who was in?

Speaker 1

Yeah, who's there? Also, if you guys are interested in learning more about uh, the zero units or the Omega teams or whatever, Jack Murphy and Sean Naylor wrote a pretty in depth article about them on the High Side, so you could check that out. No comment from Mick. I think Mick was commented in it, but you didn't. It was like you didn't do anything. It was like a normal regular comment. You didn't confirm or deny anything.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 1

So let's push on to Venezuela and what's going on there. It seems like, you know, every week where we're hearing more and more that it's gonna happen, more staging happening. There were some pictures that came out today, have some f thirty fives and stuff like that. In Puerto Rico, President Trump tweeted out something that like like but it was it was like an unofficial note am basically like no one should be flying or doing anything nearer around

the area of Venezuela. Where are we at with that? What's it looked like? Is there any diplomatic talks? Why are we even doing this? But I mean we've asked that question a million times.

Speaker 2

Yeah, have you noticed before Mika says something that's insightful and serious? Have you noticed though? Then when we talk about Venezuela, a numbers plummet, like no one gives us ship. I mean we could be think.

Speaker 1

The national security like people who are interested in this world, do you give a shit? But I think for the vast majority of American citizens they can give to fucks.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it doesn't affect that lives.

Speaker 3

No, only thirty percent support any military action in Venezuela. But the build up is there, right, We've talked about

Venezuela: Military Action and Its Implications

it a lot, so I reiterate everything set for some kind of action, and when you're making statements like closing the airspace over an entire country, one can expect that that means something unless this is some giant bluff. We have also talked about how worly run Venezuela is and how a boring Maduro is, which is ultrue. Just to give you an idea, it should be one of the

wealthiest countries in Latin Ameria. Oka has been said of that, and eight million people how to leave the country because they couldn't find food, right, So it is terribly run and Maduro's illegitimate. So if they were to uprise and install some like the the recent Nobel Peace Prize recipient Ria Machada, that'd be great. I just don't know how we can necessarily orchestrate that unless that's what's going on right now behind the scenes with you know, the clandestine

diplomacy if you want to call it. That probably led by the agency. If he leaves, then I think he will get credit. He'd be in the president will get credit for like okay, and that would be good for the people of Venezuela. If it doesn't work, and you know, there's stuff on the internet saying that he is scared to try to leave because there's Cuban intelligence officers around him that won't let him, I don't know if that's true.

Then it's either a big bluff or we do something, And I think that something is probably going to be limited to air strikes. But it's important to note that if we start, you know, attacking them. Even if it's the drug infrastructure, which can include ports, airports, they might attack us, right, So conventionally it's not even a match. But it's important to point out they do have anti ship missiles air launch from the s thirties. I think they have Cage thirty one Alphas, which are Russian made

supersonic launch from an aircraft. I think there's like one hundred and forty kilometer range, and they do this weird deal where they it's kind of like nap the earth of the ocean. It stays very close, so it makes it very difficult to intercept, and then it is to get closer. It gets closer and closer to the water. Right, they are effective against destroyers, which we have destroyers. I'm

not an expert in that. If we have listeners that are they should hopefully they'll chime in and say, yes, it's a threat, but it's not that big of a threat. I think from people I talk to that they're like, yes, it is a threat, and if they launch them at the same time, it could be problematic, but we have a lot of ways to mitigate it. But my point being is we blow up a drug factory. They launched these anti ship missiles and there's also sea based ones

that they have Iranians versions. One destroyer's hit casualties Americans. That's how this escalates. We all know us. If we take casualties, we're not going to stop. We're not going to say okay, let's turn around and go. That's not

the way America rolls. That's how this could escalate. So I would just highlight that that is a potential and if we are actually going to do any kind of ground based operations with troops, potentially like special operations to apprehend Maduro, that brings a lot of risks to a lot of risks. You know there is the place is completely apparently submersed in surface to air missiles thanks to Russia. So that's also with significant issue. We dealt with that before.

I'm not saying that means we don't go, but these are the risks that the administration is taking, especially with the level of sport that you pointed out of the American people and no authorization of Congress that I can see. So that looks like where we're headed.

Speaker 2

Uh ah.

Speaker 3

You know, your guests as good as mine, but we see all the indicators this is either a big bluff and hopefully it works or they're going to have to transition into an actual error missile campaign or something to that effect in Venezuela, and that brings risk with it.

I would, I think, you know, not that anybody's asking me if this is where we were headed, I would seriously talk about the consequences, the worst case scenarios, and try to bring the US population on board rather than this tract toward it.

Speaker 2

Listen it. Yeah, it kind of gets back to the end of the day, what do we get out of it? Really are and and it's a I'm not arguing either way. I'm just I don't see I suppose I am. I mean, I don't see I don't see solid American interests being forwarded. And as you pointed out, there's a significant risk. I mean, we've all we've all been at the point the end of American foreign policy before and and sometimes you know, sometimes when it's for a coherent purpose, of course, that's

that's the way it goes. And when you when they're a discernible American interests, that that justify that risk. But it's hard to it's hard to discern what those interests are right now. Not connected to the drug trade. Are we going to overturn an unpopular and tyrannical despot. Maybe, but we don't have a good history in doing that either. I mean we can, we can overturn them, but we're not good at dealing what comes afterwards, and we just don't seem to be collectively learning that lesson.

Speaker 1

Right, there's no guarantee that a child is going to be like on a ticker tape parade and they're going to crown or queen and everything is going to be perfect and democratic, right.

Speaker 3

Like, there'd probably be his henchmen the takeover. So that's a that's a very good point. The other thing, of course, if if we go to a full conflict, our adversaries are going to.

Speaker 2

Make hay of it.

Speaker 3

So Russia are on all of them, and the issues that we're concerned about Venezuela could likely intensify. Right, So they already have a significant humanitarian issue thanks to the incompetence of the government, right forty percent at least or on humanitarian assistance of the country, that could go up to eighty. Right, if there's an actual conflict, and what are they going to do? They're going to leave where are they going to try to come here? That's an

issue that's caused the consternation against Maduro. Potentially a large scale conflict could enhance it and give our adversaries an opportunity to try to further embed themselves in a country in our end sphere. So these are all I mean, there's never going to be a right or a perfect decision in this complicated manner, but hopefully all these factors are being considered when it comes to because this could

go in the wrong way and right. And even at the start, there doesn't seem to be a US interest from the population, from the Poles and doing anything because the poll question is simply military action, which could include just air strikes for one day, right, So h this should probably be talked through and they should either gain some support or rethink what they're doing. Obviously, I think stopping the drug flow is important, but this is well

beyond that. Colombia, Peru, even Mexico or bigger contributors to the drug and I don't think aybody's talking about going to war and all three of those countries.

Speaker 1

And yeah, you could just keep double tapping narco boats, you know, to stop the drug flow.

Speaker 3

That's good to say, we have to see what the true facts of that. That's serious, serious situation. I think that that should basically let the facts and it shouldn't be condemning folks because that would be kindeming folks up and now the military chain of command, and I don't think that's fair to them just based on it.

Speaker 2

Yeah, yeah, because you know, and I don't need we don't need to go down this path five minutes from the end of the show. But this whole thing about following orders illegal illegal, it's one of the hardest parts about this topic is there isn't always a clear distinction between legal and in illegal order. I mean, they just isn't you know what I mean, we've there is when you look historically, right, because the victor decides what legal and what is not illegal. So quite rightly, and Mick,

I know you saw this movie. I want to see it. You know, quite rightly, we held in Nuremberg trials and that was and that was that was good, right, not just because we're the victors, but those were in accordance with international norms. And there are such a thing, it's international norms of behavior, and and you know, murdering people killing unarmed civilians, killing innocence, killing prisoners, let alone. You

know what happened during the Holocaust. All those things are clearly on the dark side of good and bad, right, But there is definitely a gray area. And when you're working for when you're serving the military of the United States of America, and your automatic default is that what you're going to be ordered to do is legal, it's not always easy to tell what is legal and what is not. We've dealt with this ourselves in our own recent history with enhanced interrogation, Okay, and I'm not you know,

Legal and Ethical Considerations in Military Orders

I'm not taking sides on on that. I'm saying that Supreme Court came out and said subsequently that a whole bunch of stuff was illegal that at the time people some people thought was legal and were ordered to do.

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 2

So it's not easy and people need to be aware of that. It's not you know, I think a lot of our senior military leaders, I hope, are knowledgeable enough and think enough about that profession that they know that there is that gap. There's that space where we are supposed to not be automatons and simply follow orders. There's supposed to be a space where we make that decision, deliberate decision, is this illegal ethical order?

Speaker 3

Right?

Speaker 2

And that is why we're the United States of America, and that is why those of us who held commissions held commissions because we're not automatons. We don't simply we're not something you press the button, we do it, and if we don't do it, we disloyal fox and we get charged with treason. That's not the way the United States litertary works. It's an immensely it is a complex issue.

So I just want to throw that out there, without without jumping on either side, just to say that in this debate right now about illegal and legal orders, it's clear to me that many people do not understand the issue.

Speaker 3

And they're going to do an inquiry into this from the Senate Armed Services Committee. I mean that was said by both the chairman and vice chairman. So that should be what leads this, not just in my opinion speculation based on one.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Agree, and it is good to see the Senate actually doing its fucking job for once.

Speaker 3

Oversight is supposed to be done over every element really, especially in national security. You know this Oversight Committee on Foreign Relations, Military Intel, and that's their job bipartisan review and yeah, right, they need to do that, not just because there was an article written now, but's just in general.

Speaker 1

That's their job. Yeah right, it's what they're paid to do. A part of why they get why they're on those committees.

Speaker 2

And yeah, Congress is supposed to do many things constitutionally, right, I mean they they they don't always, but I mean I agree with you. The Senate is generally the more mature obviously the more mature chamber, but they you hope that Senate can be counted upon to carry out their constitutional duties regardless of regardless of political affiliation.

Speaker 1

Sure, I mean yeah, I brought it up because of I brought it up because of like the vote that they did to not have a vote.

Speaker 2

About Yeah, I mean we talked about that. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's why.

Speaker 2

And and that's concerning because their role is overside. The role is absolutely supposed to be a check on their power of the executive. I mean, that's part of that's all part of our constitution, right, It's supposed to be messy and at times a sea soul. That that was the intent of the founding fathers. I know that's an

overused dogument. But it's absolutely the case. We should be we should be frightened by the prospect of the weak Congress, of the Congress that does not ever want to challenge the executive, regardless of who's in power.

Speaker 1

On anything else.

Speaker 3

Guys. That's it.

Speaker 1

I want everyone listening in Washington do us a favor. I want you to like and subscribe. I want you to rate it five stars on Apple or or Spotify. I want you to check out mixed new podcast, the pub and the Porch Applied Stoicism. Those links are in the description as well. Andy Milburn's got a great book, When the Tempest Gathers. That link is also in the description. And you two are working on something new that should

be coming out soon, and I'm excited about that. So I don't know if you want to say anything now or we'll call it for later. It's up to you, guys.

Speaker 3

Yeah, let's want to talk a little. Let's let's get it done first. So we're talking about Yeah, we are working on it. It's it's it's real working on it's a regular warfare study.

Speaker 1

Yeah, So you know, keep your eyes on, ears off for that. We'll obviously let you guys know when it comes out and thanks guys. This is great.

Speaker 2

We're also a waiting our invitation to the Teamhouse Christmas party.

Speaker 1

There is no Teamhouse Christmas party this year. Yeah, I don't know, just decided against it. You guys wouldn't have came anyway. You're halfway around the world. Is a Montana.

Speaker 2

Virtually, how the Mighty fallen and the weapons of war perish? Thanks you guys.

Speaker 3

Gonna have to come out here one time and do it at the Whitefish thew.

Speaker 2

I'd love to from the white Fish.

Speaker 3

That's crazy bunch.

Speaker 2

No shortage of snow either, I would imagine that in the background. Yeah, oh yeah, great.

Speaker 1

Everyone must be happy in Montana. Thanks Mick, Thank you Andy.

Speaker 5

All right, Phella's hey, hey, guys, I want to tell all of you today about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both the team House podcast, the eyes On podcast, and the high Side news outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor. The newsletter is going to be once a week. It's going to come into your inbox and you're going to get the most current podcasts on eyes On and the Team House and whatever's topical or

current on the high Side. So it's another way for us to get the information out to you as social media algorithms are pretty iffy and you never really know what you're gonna get. So this is a once a week email. It'll slide into your inbox and it will have you know the greatest hits of that week.

Speaker 2

It's really good checking it out.

Speaker 5

The website for it is Teamhouse Podcast dot kit dot com, slash Join Teamhouse Podcast dot kit dot com slash join.

Speaker 3

Uh.

Speaker 5

You go there and you enter into your email list or you enter your email into the little thing on the website and you're good to go, and that'll be it. So we really appreciate your support and hope you'll consider signing up.

Speaker 3

Where's the link.

Speaker 5

The link will also be down the description if you're looking for it there, and that's Teamhouse Podcast, dot Kit, k I t Kilo India, Tango dot com backslash Join

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