¶ Iran War Update & Leadership Crisis
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So we appreciate it, and we appreciate you guys listening. Thanks a bunch. Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm joined today with Jack Murphy, Jason Lynes, Jonathan Hackett. I believe the Muscles from Brussels is coming. Andy will be here shortly. Uh yeah, A lot going on. We're doing a double double whammy this week of Eyes On's because, uh, you know, obviously the war continues against Iran. A lot has happened. I don't even know where I'm
gonna start. I'm literally haven't decided yet, but let's start with Let's start with the fact that they picked a new Supreme leader, which is Kamani's son, his second son, but they don't know if he's if people are alive, because they bomb the Council what is it called, Council of Experts, Assembly of Experts. Yeah, they bombed that when that was going on. So it really seems like we really want to negotiate with whoever comes out on top
of this. A lot's been happening. There's like so many things. I think six service members have died and I think twenty plus have been wounded. On the American side, Iran keeps continuing to hit all the Gulf states around them, targeting, mostly targeting. They are targeting civilian stuff like infrastructure and stuff like that, but they're targeting a lot of military stuff. Like you see some satellite images of our bases in and around the area. They don't look like they're doing
super great. Word is is like another big wave coming from us from on our side on Iran, And I'm sure it's been happening all day. Another big part of news was there's an article that came out like literally like maybe an hour ago, two hours ago, talking about that the US has been supplying arms to the Iranian Kurds since last year and with it supposedly like a ground thing is supposed to start within the next couple of days. They asked Israel and the US if they
¶ Did the U.S. Know Israel Would Strike Iran?
would provide, you know, fire support. There's no word on whether we agree to that. So yeah, a lot's happening. And I'm sure I missed that. I mean, I'm sure you guys all saw like Rubio and Pete hag Seth's press conference. I mean, Marco Rubio just basically let the cat out of the back, saying that we knew Israel was going to hit them, so and we knew that they were going to attack our base, so we just hit them too. It's like, I don't I'm not a
conspiracy theorist, but Israel runs our shit. Let's be honest. Okay, guys, what do you have.
Well, I'll say that today when they're meeting with Martz Trump, you know, he fixed that. He mentioned that he had a feeling that Arom would attack the US and that's why it wasn't because of Israel telling Rubio anything.
He had a feeling like what he read like the tea leaves he went to a psychic or if they was, if there was real intelligence about that happening, they would be fucking leaking it from a week before.
The I mean, the thing is, like the lies they're telling us aren't really meant to be believed, And it's just this interesting sort of separation with reality that twenty years ago they had to lie to us about WMDs, about you know, fighting for freedom, all these sorts of things, and today they don't have to do that anymore. They just have to produce social media content and enough of Congress and enough of the population of the United States.
I mean, even though this has very low approval, there's no real anti war movement in this country.
There hasn't been since like maybe the seventies.
So I mean it's interesting that like they don't really have to make the case, and Congress, you know, some of them have said belatedly, you have to make the case, but he doesn't really have to if he doesn't want to, it doesn't seem so I'm not really sure what we're doing here, But I mean, it's scary times in that regard. It feels like a lot of the safeguards are off.
I'm concerned about the Americans that are in the Middle East, like civilians, because a lot of this kind of scattershot announcement over social media. The State Department's been doing that too, and they haven't been doing very good job coordinating evacuations
with people. And actually Rubio just pleaded this afternoon with media organizations to help amplify the State Department's messaging about the evacuation plans, because it seems like the State Department no longer has the ability on its own like it used to municate to people in country, because it must
¶ Why There's No Anti-War Movement in the U.S.
have been dismantled. I assume.
One of the he was he one of the embassy's put out something that said, hey, don't come here, we can't help you.
Yeah think no, I'm Jerusalem.
Yeah, that doesn't invoke much confidence.
And he said, like, we're not going to help anybody get out, like if you want to jump on a bus and head to fucking Egypt, Like that's what we said to people, which is fucking insane.
Yeah. I remember in two thousand and eight in Lebanon, we had the conflict there and we were doing a neo with civilian votes. Yep, what's neo sorry, combatant evacuation.
Yeah, uh, I mean, I don't know where you guys want to take this. I mean the messaging is absolutely absolutely pissed poor. I think Trump came out or sent since you sent me this, Jonathan, right where Trump said something sent something over to like the Congress in terms of like you know what they're what there's what the aims are. And number one on the list is ballistic missiles, which outside of our bases that are in the area, have no threat to the United States, continental United States
and Alaska. They definitely can't hit. And the second, the third, I think the fourth on the list was a nuclear weapon, which by all accounts, they were not continuing their progress
on building a nuclear weapon. Rumor is that the negotiations were at the point where Iran was offering to give up all their sixty percent uranium to the United States to bring it to us, let us like refine it back down, and they would only refine up to one point five No sunset clauses either that we're in the JCPOA number one and we still fucking bomb them over
the weekend as well. Nanna, who was charping everywhere on Israeli media, saying how the negotiations were essentially a ruse to get our you know, get the one aircraft carry and the Mediterranean and stuff like that, and get things in position and move whatever that we had to move. So it's like, were we down for the negotiations? Was it ever a fucking think for them, like to try and denuclearize your on, Like they're just fucking playing us, And that's a fact.
Like I'll jump in there on the missiles actually, So I was talking to somebody about this today. So before the conflict started, there was an estimation of between fifteen hundred and three thousand ballistic missiles of any range whatsoever, including short range, medium range, long range, and they're firing about a rate of twenty five per hour if you do the math on that. If it's a sustained rate twenty five per hour since Saturday morning, that's five days
of missiles in their entire arsenal of every range. Some of those are going to fail, some of those are not in good condition, some of those are not operationally ready. They have eighty thousand drones. They can produce up to three hundred drons per month if we haven't destroyed their drone production facilities, which is kind of a concern more
I think than the ballistic missiles. Especially, it's a lot easier to destroy a transporter, erector launcher or a missile a fixed missile site than it is to destroy, you know, drones that are very tiny that it can actually penetrate through airspace. But if that's the number one reason that this conflict is going on, that's a very finite military objective that could easily be communicated to the world about hey, we're going to destroy these facilities, this number of facilities
without and it doesn't really reveal anything. I remember during the except speech, she was, you know, very cagey about saying anything at all, and even shot down that. I think it was an NBC reporter that asked him, you know, what's the military objective? And he kind of got upset to her for asking that question. He said it was like a legacy media ploy to ask this type of question to like in formn the American public about the injectives.
I'm surprised Seth didn't say that having strategic goals is gay and woke.
Right. Yeah, Well, he did say that there's no need for rules of engagement anymore.
Yeah, yeah, stupid rules of engagement and politically correct wars.
But he also called the last twenty years of conflict dumb wars, which medi I mean that kind of offends the nearly four thousand service members that died fighting in those wars.
Wasn't he didn't he serve in those wars too?
Yeah?
Yeah, like and a lot of this, I mean, part of it like to put a thumb on the veteran community, you know, those of us who did serve in the War on Terror years. And I know there's a huge diversity of views out there amongst veterans. It's not monolithic, but I do notice a lot of them supporting this campaign as sort of not a pragmatic policy decision, but as a catharsis for what they experienced throughout the war. Part of it is, you know that the Iranians legitimately
were targeting American soldiers during the war that happened. And then part of it, I think, in my opinion, is that the wars failed and there's an attempt to regain some dignity and some honor in the aftermath of two failed conflicts. But I'm not sure that that is enough in of itself to legitimize or justify fighting a new war because the last one was dumb. I need a little bit more to go on than that.
I mean, in the alternative, we could do something kind of like Kosovo and Bosnia, where we captured and arrested the top level folks. I mean that's Delta Force did a lot of that capturing in the nineties. Bring them to justice internationally, not just for the United States, but internationally because there were a lot of NATO allies and Iraqi partners that were killed and maimed from those explosively foreign penetrators, and instead of bringing them to justice, we're just dropping bombs.
And yeah on that too. You know the whole concept. If you're going to do an assassination, right, if you're going to take out the leadership, we're calling it a decapitation strike. You know that makes sense if, for instance, you know the Minister of Foreign Affairs, he's number three in line. I don't know that in Iran. I'm just
making an example, and you've compromised him. He works for the CIA, he works for Masad whatever, that it makes total sense to take out number one and number two because you're going to move your guy up into the number one position. But from what our own government has been telling us, they're blowing away the entire succession plan that they had in mind. They're killing all of these people. Okay, I mean, is it killing for the sake of killing.
We're on the record saying we're not doing nation building, we're not doing these long.
Wars, we're not doing forever wars.
Well, actually Trump did say we can fight forever today, but it's ostensibly a break with the past, with the past conflicts. But I just don't see any like cohesive plan. And I think that's because there is no cohesive plan, that all of this is just being done off the cuff.
And it feels like there's a tension between General Kane on the military planning side and then the policy side, where General Kane seems to have a very deliberate military, at least at the operational level, maybe not strategic, but the operational level is it clearly seems to be well formed from you know, as well formed as it can be, but there's no connection into that and strategicainst states, and it seems like there is no desire to have a
strategic against state attached to this operational activity.
And like to get into the ground game because I do want to get to the Kurds a little bit since we're on this topic. But again, when you're going to launch some sort of an air campaign like this,
¶ Iran Attacks U.S. Bases & Gulf Targets
and by the way, I don't think we've ever transitioned to country or regime to a democracy with an air campaign alone. I don't think that's happened since you know, the last eighty years, if ever. But when you do something like that, you know it should work in tandem with an unconventional warfare strategy that you have a shadow government in waiting that you have built up, and at least from the people I've spoken to over the years, we have no shadow government in Iran like that doesn't exist.
There has been operational preparation of the environment. A lot of that has to do with non assisted recovery routes that hopefully we never have to use.
But as far as the.
Ground game, I mean, yeah, the news that came out today about the Kurds in western Iran, it's the PAK and then there's one other group over there too, one Kurdish group. The last I knew, it's been a while since I've looked at this, So forgive me if I'm a little off. It's yeah, yeah, thank you, and the Kurds, I mean this whole notion of greater Kurdistan, right.
So I was in.
A gun runner's office for the PKK about ten years ago, and this dude had a map up on the wall, and that map showed how they perceive Kurdistan and the boundaries of Kurdistan for them went from the Persian Gulf on the Persian side in western Iran, up the side of the Persian Gulf into the area of northern Iraq that is currently Kurdistan, which is currently Kurdish held, into north East Syria, the area that became called Verjava, and
up into Turkey, southern Turkey connecting to the Mediterranean. Now, that is a huge swath of land connecting the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean that they perceive, as you know, their homeland that they would like to turn into a nation, or at least some factions would like to turn that into a cohesive Kurdish country, even though even Abdellah Ojalon has kind of backed away from that in so many ways and looked at other alternative forms of government rather
than creating a Kurdish nation state. And I don't know what you guys have been heard or may have read about. I do know that the CIA and Masad have both been playing over there. I mean all the way back to the nineteen eighties. So it's not really a surprise that these guys have gotten weapons shipments. But how you know, John or Jason, I mean, how would you assess their fighting capability on the ground, I mean, can they constitute a credible threat to the Iranian regime.
So this goes back to nineteen forty six when Mahabad, which is the provincial area where a lot of these Pijack guys are coming from, in Lake Urmia, which is the major water feature there, they had a separatist revolt against the Shah at that time. They survived for two years as an independent state under that conflict in nineteen forty six. It's very interesting thing to read about. Encourage listeners to REBA. It's something that helps you understand the
Kurds a lot more. The Kurds that fought that rebellion back then were the Barzani family and one other family. They were the end of their two year conflict in Iran where they had independence ended when the Brits helped raise a shah push them west out of the country into northern Iraq. And that's where the current Barzani family came from. And that family has been obviously our close contact for many conflicts, as you mentioned, and those are
the combat tested Shmiriga that everybody knows. The ones inside Iran never got that combat exposure, and they had and had an opportunity to get real good tactical training that they would need to actually work together in a coordinated way. And the other problem is Pjack that the section of the Curds that's in western Iran so large, there's a couple of different Kurdish groups like Congred Jail for example,
and some others. With this one p Jack, which would be leading the charge is an arch enemy of Turkey, and Iran has actually allowed Turkey to do air strikes inside of Iran back in twenty sixteen seventeen to push back PJACK fighters away from Turkey's border. So it would be very hard to imagine that a NATO ally Turkey would allow Pijack to have any power in Iran. And
I don't know if you've seen the media. But Netanyahu has already said that Turkey is a potential enemy of Israel soon, so that might even be another problem, like another movement on the chess board of Okay, where does the threat move around? Now that the Curds are coming into the picture, Turkey is getting upset? What does that mean for Israel? Pushing north and they just occupy southern Lebanon,
They're probably going to occupy southwest Syria. So I'm looking like bigger picture at the region of what does this mean if Pijack gets these weapons. It sounds so simple that give these cards these weapons that fight, but there are major ramifications regionally, especially for Turkey if the Pijack gets these weapons. And I don't think we talked about
the previous episode. I don't think of the National Security Council that there is this level of understanding of which Kurds are which and what happens is this group of Kurds something and there's another group of Kurds that has total opposite political view like in Rojava. There's even two
different ways of looking at government in Rojava. One of those is that completely decentralized almost like socialist system and the other is kind of like a federalized state system, even in Java, which is in Syria, and the Pijack are not the leading Kurds are not the only Kurds in Western Duran. You know, there are Sunny Kurds, there's
Shia Kurds. There are other Kurds or Animists, you know, and the religion is very important for them because, especially with the way the terrain works, when you're isolated in a certain area, your religion and your culture and your lang whould become your identity. And you can't just say that all these guys are Kurds and here's some weapons, because they might instead of going against the far enemy in Tehran, there's a closer enemy across the mountain.
You know, How does the relationship between the United States and Turkey hash out in a time where, you know, ostensibly, if we're going to supply weapons and you know, war material to p Jack when the United States seems that our policy.
Right now is that we don't really care about NATO anymore.
That's a great point. Actually, today, Trump said, in response to Spain, So Spain doesn't want the US using Cadiz or Rota, and so Trump said, well, we can just land our aircraft there anyway and nobody can stop us, which is a very concerning thing to hear from about Spain also threatening to cut off trade with Spain, and the EU quickly shot back and said Spain doesn't own its own trade outside of the EU. The EU determines trade for the EU, et cetera. So that will be
an interesting development. And that's not even a far away NATO partner, that's a very close NATO and EU partner.
Right, Yeah, I sorry, Jack, go ahead.
Oh.
I was just going to point out, like in two thousand and three, we had this real big problem with the Turks and getting ten Special Forces Group across the border. They ended up having to go a lot of them through Romania, and a few guys got across the border with like some of their gear.
But I mean, the Turks really made.
It difficult on the SF guys to do that for the same reason that they didn't want us working with the Kurds, they didn't want us supporting the Kurds.
Yeah, that happened in twenty sixteen. Part of my team was in northern Syria and they got photographed wearing WHITEPG patches and that was kind of a little bit after the time we were saying there was no forces in Syria and all that. So not only are they seeing forces in Syria, they're also seeing the WHITEPG patch on the guy's shoulder, which is you know, Turkey would say it's a paycock cup.
Yeah, there was really weird stuff that happened back in those days, like when the Turks had their talk, you know, in Turkey, and you'd have like a American Special Forces and Turkish special Forces, and like, we're working with Turkey to attack ISIS in Syria, but we're also working with
the Curds to attack ISIS in Syria. But we don't want the Turks to know that we're working with the Curds, and we all kind of have to pretend that we don't know what's going on here, like war mikes for strange bedfellows.
As you know, all of you guys know, I.
Have a question, what happens if Israel were to attack Turkey, a NATO country, What happens? What does the United States do? What does NATO do?
Well? Israel is a major non NATO ally, so they're pretty close. They have nuclear weapons. Turkey has our nuclear weapons, but that doesn't mean Turkey can use them. And I think that that would kind of answer your question right there. That's how much Turkey could do.
That's good. I mean, you know who this I feel like this benefits is specifically, like you see, the EU gas prices have gotten up pretty high straight AHRD moves is essentially the facto shut down. It's like at a crawl if that, so your Europeans are going to get their gas from somewhere, and it's going to be Russia, so that money goes into Putin's pocket. The weapons we're using to bomb Iran currently are not going to be
¶ Arming Iranian Kurds for a Possible Ground War
weapons that the EU could buy from US to give to Ukraine to fight Putin. Yeah, I don't know if there's a fucking grown up in that room at all.
And the winner here is China.
She's about what your thoughts on China's role in this?
Yeah, I mean, first of all, we've moved carrier strike groups that aren't typically in the region at the same time to that region, away from where they could respond to China. And if China's looking at this is a great opportunity to do something in the Straits of Taiwan
because the US is willpower to respond to that's very low. Already, the US has already signaled very little tolerance for helping Taiwan gain any sort of independence or even pushing back and anything she is saying about Taiwan, and she has messaged that within the next three to six years he intends to incorporate Taiwan into the mainline like one, and we haven't pushed back on that. From a policy perspective, this would be a fantastic time if I was a Chinese person to push into Taiwan.
Do they have the capacity to do that, like actual sea power to do that yet?
So it's hard to project power obviously, or it's like one hundred miles or so. Yeah, but they could without US interference, Yeah, make it to The hard part is about the ground landing of forces. This is what the big the big problem with it taking of Taiwan is the ground forces on the western side of the island because the terrain goes up almost ninety three angle. But if they're going to use a lot of missiles, especially their hypersonic missiles that they've been claiming that they have,
that could be a game changer. They could also without without US denial of the sea lanes, they could actually move around the other side of the island and start doing things on that side, because you know, Taiwan doesn't have a navy to compare to China. The navy that Taiwan relies on as the US Navy, and if the US Navy refuses to help, I had.
I mean, this is not totally opro po, but I mean just reality versus perception. I had a conversation with someone who retired intelligence community guy, smart guy, you know that I respect, But he told me that, you know, He's like, you know, all of this is really about fighting China.
Like Venezuela brand.
It's all playing into this like four D chess strategy to cut China's you know, source of energy off and energy trade.
And I'm like, I'm sorry, man.
But this this feels like it's a coping mechanism for failed policy.
I don't know how you can look.
Plus, China's been developing its own self sustainment for energy for years now, and they're going to achieve that eventually where they don't need to rely on the rest of the world for their energy, and that's going to be a real problem for the US. Because that's what we've been squeezing him with is the sanctions on Bonnie and oil making it extremely expensive to purchase that oil, which
they still purchase, it's just more expensive. But once that's removed, they can kind of go off on their own and become first a regional power, which they're already kind of become, especially in the Pacific and all the way down to Australia. And after that they're gonna look like the big boy in the room because Russia's doing all kinds of things in Ukraine, the US is doing all kinds of things in the Middle East, and China can say I'm not doing anything anywhere, right.
Yeah.
Also, like it doesn't look great too that there's talk about moving Patriot batteries from Korea over back to the bases in the Middle East, Like doesn't really you know, if I'm Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, I'm not exactly like amped about that.
Do we?
I'm sure like the exact numbers are classified, but do we have any inkling of like magazine depth on both sides, America versus Iran, Like who's gonna run out of Amo first?
So Iran will run out first, for sure, and a lot of that has to do with the maritime prepositioning forces that the US has that previously somewhere in Diego Garcia. Others are in other places now because the British have the British government's having a problem with the Chagos Islands, which was part of Mauritius and part of Britain before that they're not letting us use Diego Garcia for that reason. But there are other places that have these prepositioning forces
that can push sustainment up and replenish magazine depth. And also I think the defense industrial base not only in the United States, but if NATO decides to invoke Article five because of the strike on Cyprus, that will dramatically increase the US access to munitions, which perhaps they won't
openly declare Article five. They may without declaring it, or they may just begin pushing munitions to the US to help, you know, ostensibly to protect against the Eastern Mediterranean, which the British are moving a ship over there right now. France is moving a nuclear vessel there right now. So it's possible that without that an actual vocal agreement to the world, they may begin adding magazine depth to the US themselves.
Interesting Also, Cauter did just the bit of news from today Cutter did send over like three I think it was three missiles and like twenty drones and hit Iran back. So yeah, just chaos everywhere where do we go from here? So, like, are the Kurds are real? We mentioned it a little bit. Are they a real option in terms of right?
Can they destabilize the Iranian regime? Can they open up a front that would you know, if they can't do it themselves, at least open up that front for political change.
Yeah. Without defection at a like specific level from the current government, you're not going to be able to use a single faction in the western part of a ninety million person country.
Yeah, it's I'm sure the Kurds, you know, they get they get you know, antsy in their pansy whenever this kind of stuff happens. And I have to believe the Iranian Curds see this as like Rajava point two, Like this is our big moment to carve out a sloth of this country for ourselves, you know. And I'm sympathetic to the Kurds in many ways, but I mean even the political project in Rajava unfortunately is under an enormous strain right now.
That's the thing with the Kurds, you know, it's not a monolith just like Iran. I mean, there are many different Kurds, many different and even their languages some of them are not even intelligible with each other.
Well, yeah, they speak Sarani and Kumaji and yeah.
Yeah. And in the western part of the country, you don't just have the Kurds, you also have the Aziris. And the Aziris were the ones that actually had the first uprising in nineteen forty five with Soviet help and declared an independent state and actually kept their independent state until the Russians agreed with the Iranian government to tell the Aziris to stop being independent and join back to the country. So the Aziris have also been itching for
an independent state. That doesn't mean an Iranian state led by Aziris. That means a separate country in the northwest of Iran. And I think the Kurds want the same thing. They don't want to rule Iran, they want to rule Kurdistan, and Kurdistan to them is very closely tied to the land that they live on, to the territory they hold which is just the west of Iran.
So, talking back to what Dee was saying about the strikes and clutter, I was listening to a unnamed YouTube. He's a kind of an influencer, and he was saying that anyone who feels like this could become even have his chance of becoming a regional conflict doesn't know what they're talking about. What are your thoughts on it?
It seems like it is a regional conflict, all right, I mean.
Like twelve countries involved.
Yeah, I mean it's even perhaps even like a pre World War one scenario where you have like this Eastern European problem, this web of alliances that are you know, everybody thinks that they're very well intact until something squeezes somebody somewhere and they all turn in a different way that you didn't expect. I'm not saying there's World War three happening. I'm just saying that the tangled web of alliances absolutely indicates a regional conflict has already begun. It
hasn't just already begun, it's been ongoing. I mean, you think about when the Saudis and the Amoradies invaded Yemen. Is that not a regional conflict beginning, you know, I.
Mean the interesting thing And I had this conversation with some people when Gaza first happened, that there were fears in the Pentagon that the conflict in Gaza could in a sense merge with the conflict in Ukraine.
Not like literally merge, like.
You know, you're not going to see Israeli tanks rolling across in the Kursk, like that's obvious, but from a standpoint of alliances, right, like how we're all choosing sides, that it becomes one large conflict.
You think there's a possibility for that to happen here.
Well, even in Ukraine, we had North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So I mean that's even right there. I mean the link between Russia and North Korea right there in Ukraine and even in Armenia and Azerbaijan. In two and it was twenty twenty September twenty twenty August twenty twenty eight, if you remember this, there was a fight in Agarna Karabak, and the Russians went in and defended the Muslims, and the Iranians went in and defended the Christians,
and the Turks went in and offended. The Sunni's very interesting conflict because of who was supporting whom. The Russians and the Turks brought in Syrians from Syria. Battalions of Syrians from the same operational units the National Defense Forces which Iran created, by the way, brought them in to fight against each other in the Gorno Karabak, you know. So it's just a very interesting way that the region speaks to the world in a way that I think Westerners don't understand.
Yeah, dude, that's so insane. Also, the funny Yeah, I don't know if you guys were sawny of Lindsey Graham's clips over the last couple of days, but he's talking about like saving Sunni Muslims and stuff like that from the Shias. It's like, haven't we been fucking smoking Sunnies for like since two thousand and one.
Like he keeps talking about the Iran trying to export the revolution, which that was true in like nineteen seventy nine through eighty one, and when Saddam invaded Iran that ended and literally it actually ended. Inside the regime, they actually made a decision to stop doing that. And that's actually why Kamani became the Iatola and not a different person, because the other person, Monteziri, was like a very export revolution guy, and the previous, the first Iotola said we
can't have that. We can't be doing that anymore, so he can't be it. He actually got disqualified for that, one of the that's a major reason he was disqualified. And Lindsay Graham remembers that, because you know your formative years, you just like keep it with you what you heard back then, and like that's what he heard back then. That's what he's continuing to believe. But you want to
talk about exporting something, look at jihad. I mean Sunni saw Offi Jihadism that has literally been exported around the entire planet. I remember in June twenty fourteen, June tenth, twenty fourteen, when Isis declared caliphate in Mosul, and the same day there were Indonesians in Bali declaring Bayat to bagdaddy. You know. I mean that that is a globalized problem. And I think the except of exporting the revolution just
like it's like a fantasy. Now that was true back then has not been true for years.
It's like the Cubans trying to export the revolution to you know, West Africa or Central America or Angola exactly.
And the Cubans did fight in Angola. They sent a couple of thousand troops to Angola.
I don't know. So let's talk about the successor. They picked Kamanie's son. I don't remember his first name, Jonathan, of course, thank you. But the eighty eight, you know, the Assembly of expert Scott bombs. So I don't know if the guy made it out. I don't know if there's any word on whether he made it out or not. So what do you think happens now? Have you heard that that he has he made it out or has there any been any word about it.
I haven't seen if he is alive or not. The issue is if he is alive. There's another gentleman named Ali ras Ali Raisa, Arafi and Arafi remember on in the last episode we were talking about there's a group of three people that sits like, makes the short list and then sends the short list to the Assembly of experts. So Arafi was the third guy on that. Because there was Pozeshki in the president, then there has to be
a cleric, which is a Rafi. The third guy got killed in the bombing of hamedy right, so Rafi believes that he should actually be the new Supreme leader himself. And there may be a power struggle between Arafi and Mochdeva, especially because how many said he didn't want his son to succeed under him, because he didn't want to create
a hereditary government. And it could be that Mochdabah was selected because Lari Johnny and ghalibaff the two IRGC guys that I've been mentioning that are the core of the regime, wanted Mochtaba because he's an easy choice, and Arafi might feel slighted. And there might be some other dynamics that we're not aware of obviously, because I mean, imagine if you're over there right now, people are freaking out and they're making decisions in a very short notice without really
thinking things through. I'm curious to see that if they're not dead, what might happen in that power struggle between the clerical class and the IRGC who actually wants to run the country.
I got a question about, like I guess even just in Tehran, like just the city, you know, we saw a ton of protesting happen, like five six weeks ago, tens of like ten, I don't know how many thirty thousand ish people haven't were killed by the regime. Obviously, they're not going to come out in protest right now because their cities currently getting and their country is currently
getting bombed. But in terms I don't know if you heard anything in terms of chatter or something like that, is there some kind of effort being built up for when the bombing does slow down, in terms of the
¶ How Iran Could Escalate Across the Middle East
people getting out there and protesting or doing you know, something of pulse.
Yeah, they were protesting the day before the strikes happened. Some of them went inside, but then once how Many was killed, they were out in the streets dancing. They're literally dancing and celebrating, and they have this little thing that looks like a mouse that they put up on a stick because in Iran there's this cultural reference to how Many because they think he's like the squirrely mousey
guy that's always hiding. So they hang this mouse on a stick, and they're all out there with a mouse and a stick, just cheering that this guy's dead, like he's like hanging like hung with a noose, cheering that he's dead. So, and that's amidst the bombing that they're doing this because a lot of air runnings. They've had enough. I mean, if you talk to an Iranian who lives in Iran, everyone you talk to knows somebody that was killed.
It is a widespread murder in January, and everybody knows somebody, and they're fed up with it. And I've spoken to a few Iranians who say, you know, we've always been concerned about Israel getting involved in Iran and all this, and like the US doing things in Iran, like with Mohammed Mossadeg in nineteen fifty three and then other things as well, and they said even that we want Israel in the US to come in and help. Now we need help, and we don't care who it is. We
need this guy gone, we need this regime gone. And the concern now, I mean in January when Trump said help was on the way, and they didn't help, and then people went outside and were executed because they thought the US was coming. Like they wouldn't have all come out as much as they did if the US didn't say that. And now again the US originally said this
is about regime change. Even Yahu said that, and if that's true, certain conditions need to occur, certain things need to happen to allow those people to feel safe enough to go out and continue with what they're doing. But then Trump has in the past few days said it's not about regime change, it's about fissile material and missiles.
And now the people are probably wondering, well, maybe we shouldn't go out and protest anymore, because we already learned the hard way in January not to trust the United States when they say we're going to help you. And I don't want to lose my entire family because I
trust the United States. Right So, I think there's a decision crossroad right now where the people are watching what is the US actually doing because there's a lot of messaging, obviously, and cross messages that don't make sense with each other. I think that people are trying to see what actually is going to happen, what's actually going on, before they make that risk a second time and risk losing their families completely this time.
So in between the the the people on the streets and the upper echelons of the IRGC and the councils, is there any sense of what the average military or intelligence or security personnel. What they're thinking is, I know they're just probably trying to keep their heads down, but do you think that there's something that could spur them to turn on their masters.
Yes, there's two classes of people in the IRGC and in the artes. There's one class of like professional folks that are you know, that's their job for many years. There's this thing called the Sarbazi, which is a conscript, and the IRGC and the Arteesh both have conscript classes. These are the ones that make up the majority actually of the forces. They're basically like privates that get a rifle and get a few weeks of training and they're
part of the military for a year. And these are the ones that probably won't go get called up and go they're probably going to many them will stay home, and many of them are staying home. In fact, there's problems right now where, especially in the provinces outside Tehran, a lot of the Arteesh, which is the army conventional forces Sarbazi conscripts are not showing up where they're being called to go because they're concerned about what's going to happen next. And a lot of them don't believe in
the government. But they're forced. I mean, it's not it's a requirement, it's not voluntary. They get called up and forced into this and they don't want to do it. And that's a big reason. The regime actually brings in Iraqi Shia militia groups or Hashtashabi groups into Iran to
patrol the streets. And actually in January when the massacres were going on, there were a lot of Iraqi, Lebanese and Pakistani forces marching up and down the streets conducting their regimes activities for them, because there are not enough Iranian conscripts that will respond to the call to murder their own people. But there are plenty of Pakistani, Lebanese, Afghan and Syrian and Iraqi groups that the regime is cultivated over a long period of time called Lewa's and
alia is like a battalion of foreign forces. You know, you have un which in Lada Lewa hadiary un which comes from Pakistan that are like ideologically brainwashed to come in and fight for the regime. And that's that's who's patrolling the streets with that. I didn't know that, I ergy see, yeah, yeah.
I remember you mentioned this last time you were on
when the protests were super first popping off. It's incredible, right, I mean, I'm assuming, but I'm gonna ask, like, is the US or Israel or in the CIA or intelligence looking at like what like are they bringing in uh Shia Iraqi Shia militias into like Tehran or something, Because if they can't get contact with their conventional forces, they're gonna need somebody to backstop it, right, like, especially if the Curds starts shooting stuff up, or even just to quell protests.
But you remember we talked about the Mosaic Doctrine, which is the regime's way of decentralizing command and control. They activated the Mosaic doctrine a few days ago, and that means that you don't need directions from Tehran anymore. You just need directions from Sanandaj, which is the Kurdish area near the border of Iraq, or you just need Mashad or Khlorisan, the provincial headquarters there, and there's basically a colonel or a brigadier general who's in charge of that space.
And that's the highest level of command that you need to care about in this mosaic doctrine, and so those Iraqi forces that are being activated inside of Iraq and coming into Iran are being activated by the provinces on the border region that lead into Iraq. And this has been a huge problem for Iran and a huge problem
for the US. But it's actually a primary avenue that Mosad is able to enter Iran without being detected, and the reason that the US is able to push Kurds into Iran because that border area between Iraq and Iran is very porous. It's not as porous as Afghanistan Pakistan, which if you've been there, you know what I'm talking about. You don't know which country you're standing in at any given point sometimes. But in the western part those mountains
are so unforgiving. They actually have these people called koalbars, which are these kind of like shurpas that help you navigate through the mountains to get to the other side. And there are no border guards there. There's no border, right so, I mean there are some down in the south, especially near Basra, but as you get further up north
in that border, it is completely wide open. And if those guys get the call to come help, they're going to just move across the border, you know, and unless you're unless you're watching them closely with human you're gonna have a very hard time to notice even the troop strength moving across it. They're moving across at all.
Where are we in a week from now? Who wants to take a stab at that? Let's speculate mud wrestle, whoever wants to go first? Jack, you go first? I'm picking now.
Oh, I mean, I don't know.
I think probably over the next week we're going to probably see more of the same kind of like volleys and counter volleys of fire going back and forth across the Persian Gulf and the Iranians. I think it's pretty clear they're trying to drag as many different players into the conflict as they can. So who knows who they're going to bomb next? I mean, I guess that's part of the deal.
They're going to run out of bombs, that's their problem. They're going to run out of missiles, and then the question is what do they do after that? Straight up guerrilla warfare? And I mean, looking back to nineteen eighty through nineteen eighty eight, that did start happening. They started running out of like big munitions and started just sending human beings across the field, and they would see guys dying in front of them, they just walk over the
bodies and keep going. And these ideologically brainwashed guys I was talking about earlier, those are the ones that will do that. Like they will they will listen to that call.
You know, there's something else that may or may not become relevant. A numbers station popped up in Iran right after the leadership cell got taken out in the airstrike. And for people who don't know, numbers stations are basically called out over shortwave radio HAM radio, and it's just somebody reciting off a series of numbers. And this is is thought that it's how intelligence agencies communicate with recruited
assets that are so called behind enemy lines. So like if the Russians had sleeper cells in America, they could communicate with them this way using a one time pad. It's pretty much uncrackable. You don't you wouldn't have any idea what they're signaling to the cells. And like something like a dozen different countries around the world operate numbers stations, but the Iranians haven't.
Until just this week.
So the question is, what does that mean, does it mean that the Iranians are just running a psychological operation on us to get our counterintelligence people all spun up and get and keep them busy, or are they signaling to sleeper cells, Hey, it's time to hit the cachet site locations, pull out the demo and start conducting. You know, they would probably think of it as irregular warfare, and
we would probably call it terrorism. And I don't know, I don't know what the answer to that is, but I think it's going to be interesting to find out. You would think that after we dropped on Solomani that they would have activated some of these cells if they had them, but nothing happened, and now we are let's see that.
We're about five days into this.
Yeah, so if there are sleeper cells, and you do have to contact them, climdestinely and then for them to get all their shit together and then launch an attack, maybe they have to plan it if they haven't pre planned it. Yeah, that could take a couple of weeks. But yeah, then again, I mean, it's quite possible that those sleeper cells simply don't exist.
They've been using a lot of psychological warfare actually, especially in social media sending out a lot of imagery that's been AI enhanced, completely faults or from previous campaigns. Interestingly, if you look on with a VPN, if you go on Iran's news web site Tasting or irib, which is their broadcasting website, the propaganda that they're putting on there to their own people is fascinating to look at because they're claiming they're killing like a thousand Americans a day,
and like, this is like wild claims that, Bob. But if you have the Internet and you can go on there to see that, you can also see other websites that show you that that is clearly not true. It's just kind of interesting to think about, like how like mentally they're approaching this situation. I have a friend who grew up in Iran their whole life, and when we were talking about the conflict in Syria, they were like, oh, yeah, Iran won that conflict in Syria, and I was like, no,
the US won that conflict. And it was just kind of this interesting like understanding where they came from as far as what they were told, especially without access to alternative narratives, they believe it's just.
True, you know.
Yeah, It's like the people in Egypt believed for so.
Long that they won the Arab Israeli war because of the propaganda, and like right, I think it wasn't until like the nineties until the truth started to come out and people were shocked.
Yeah, information domain is extremely important in this campaign. I hope the US is using it.
Also, what would that look like with the US using it?
Well, I think they need to send broadcast messages inside of Iran using cell towers, sending out like the equivalent of a night letter basically to Iranian cell phones, especially those affiliated with the regime, especially because the Internet right now it's like ninety five percent off and the five percent that's on are regime connected families. Well that's perfect. Now you have a perfect target deck that's not going to infect anyone that shouldn't be receiving it, and you
can just blast it to them all the time. So then we in Afghanistan, we used to have this thing called a dead baby book when we were doing interrogations until a period of time when Congress told us to stop doing that. But before that, we would actually take these books when we got our detainees and I wouldn't even speak to them I've just showed them the pictures of these dead bodies, and they're like from all kinds of other conflicts, but to this guy seeing this, that's
from there, you know. And we would use it to the psychologically like scare the shit out of them basically, And you can be doing that all the time. And if you have anyone's been to your school, you know, like you can be exposed to an idea at first and be like, nah, that's not true. But then once it's like put into your brain like a worm, you're like wait a minute, and then it's like, wait, this
is true. You know, So that there's a really powerful tool, not just psychological operations, but like the persistence of information into the space, and that person has only access to that information and you can control the way they think about things.
And you think that things like the dismantling of USAID and Voice of America has hampered our ability in the information war as.
Far as it's pretty clear, yes, for sure. Yeah.
Also it seems like what we said before in terms of like how State Department's been really not helping other people get out of places that it was kind of gutted. At least the resources were gutted for that. Man, I don't know if you're an American around there. It cannot be even if you're in Israel, like where it's relatively safe. I mean technically it's not. They're getting pound it too. I mean they're knocking most of the stuff out, but they're still getting hit pretty hard.
I know a guy that's there, He went down thirty three times into his bunker in twenty four hours.
Wow.
I mean it's just like super disruptive. The thing is, you don't know when the next one's coming, So like you get out of the bunk and you're like, oh, okay, that was it number twelve. Then you like try to go to bed and like boom wakes you up again.
You know, Companeople were stuck in Dubai and you've seen some disruption too, like in terms of like everyday stuff like F one's I think killing their Saudi Arabia race and their Bahrain race, you know, and the quarter one is I think it's down the line, so I think there's still time for that. But like right now, like they're looking at like cancel and races.
Yeah, huge economic impact, I mean not just on the energy, but like you're mentioning the tourism sector and Emirates airlines and Katar Airways. I mean the Dubai Airport itself was the busiest airport in the world, I believe, and that's turned off, you know, a huge amount of economic value. These countries are losing just by doing just by turning these things up, not even with the damage.
There's a ton of like differing reports right like everyone's trying to get their information out there saying that, like there was a bunch of like satellite images of like before the strikes and after in terms of like American bases in the region, and there's a lot of American bases that have been pretty pretty heavily damaged. How do
¶ Risks to U.S. Troops, Bases & Civilians
we still operate in terms of like, you know, where are we sending out like our fifteens for sorties right in Kuwait? Is it still in that on that base? And we're just like whoever's essential is there and we try and hope, like our patriots take stuff down.
I think it's a lot to do with redundancy that you know, we're not going to have one golf ball antenna in Bahrain. That's it. You know, the aircraft carriers, the big decks, the lhds, they all have the same redundancy systems. There are plenty of places to land besides Qatar and Bahrain that are close by, for example Wafax, Salty, the air base and Jordan and some other places that are and they're pretty easy to land on if you
need to in the last minute situation. Like I was mentioning earlier, the Link fifteen NATO communication system that the F fifteens have. Most of the F fifteens have this, at least all of ours do, and they're able to coordinate what they need to coordinate regardless of which specific
piece of equipment's been knocked out. And there's also the low Earth orbit satellite communication system that's up there, which is like a mesh network, which is a pretty fascinating concept that even if some of the ground communication systems are gone, it's absolutely redundant, to the point where the pilot doesn't even realize that they've switched over to a different air system instead of the ground system.
Quick question, because I was talking about it with Jack yesterday. Obviously, for like ballistic missiles, we're using patriots to knock them out right. For Shaheed drones, are they just using c RAM, so like they have to get close for us to knock them out, or I guess fighters too.
But they've got some counter UAS systems on the ground that are able to work with jamming and some other things as well. The other important component that not a lot of people have spoken about, but in the space domain, there's a lot of anti satellite things we can do to interfere with the GPS that those drones use. Some of those drones have pre program coordinates in it, which makes it unnecessary to use the GPS part of it. But there are also some technologies we can use to
actually take the drones over and use them. The question is does the US want to use those technologies, because if we do, we're going to reveal to them how they work. So there's that threshold of do we need to do this yet? And I think some of those more advanced cyber and offensive capabilities have not been used yet because they're probably not necessary. You can use the CRAM for a while, you can use some integrated air
defense for a while. Then when things get a little bit hairy, if they even do, you could perhaps use a smaller offensive tool thanbe a larger offensive tool. If necessary. The Russians were doing this quite a bit in Syria, where they were actually using satellite jamming to jam a
lot of our communication equipment in Southeast Syria. They didn't never talk about it, and we did never talk about it either, but it was pretty effective to the point where we couldn't communicate with the troops over the horizon.
Also, I like to I did see where the lucas like the uh low costs. You know, it's like a Shaheed clone essentially. It's like we can't make our own we have to clone a Shahed drone? Like are they that good? I guess, I mean, I mean, I guess at this point they're ubiquitous, like if you find them everywhere. So yeah, incredible stuff, scary stuff, frankly. Uh And if you guys have the listeners or viewers don't know, I'm completely against it. Uh anything else, am me with it.
Let's go, Jack. What do you got. I know you're working on something.
What's up?
No, I'm not not on Iran. No, I don't.
I don't know that I have much more that people haven't heard already. I just you know, I guess add that you know, we are.
Living in different times. We're not in Kansas anymore.
The geopolitical arena is changing, the domestic political arena is changing. It's actually changing so fast that I haven't heard anyone and I'm not holding myself up that I do this. I haven't heard anyone who can articulate or grasp exactly how quickly and how profoundly things have changed, both in the United States and abroad. But you are seeing a sort of recalibration of global order taking place before our eyes. And I think we're at the beginning of that process rather than the end.
And actually, Jack, that's a really good point, because this world order that we know was created by the United States, because we won World War Two. It's like we set up this entire system that is perfectly beneficial to just the United States, and in the past year and a half, we've been dismantling it rapidly, brick by brick, on a daily basis, which is crazy, because it's like this, this system is the most ideal system for the United States.
Any other alternative is a lose situation for the US, just for the economy, forget defense and everything else.
Were dismantling it ourselves, right, Yeah, tell me how that makes sense? Four D chess being played, Just incredible stuff. Smartest guys in the room.
Somebody with a very good brain knows how to fix it.
Another interesting thing, just to cap off, like there's a Chinese ship in the Gulf that's just been there for like months, right, and I guess it's like it's monitoring everything and stuff like that. So I'm sure like they're probably you know, soaking in every type of information, every information they could probably get their hands on. Also, there
were some rumors talking about China. There are some rumors that are like a couple dozen cargo planes from China headed into Iran and as they were heading into Irun, they turned their transponders off. What could that is that like replenishment of like of of munitions or like what could that possibly if it's true, which probably is.
It could be the h Y series missiles that they were promised that Iran purchased from China could be. But those are that hypersonic, They're claimed to be hypersonic, right, we have yet to see them actually be hypersonic.
Do you think they're at any point, at any juncture in all this that you could see for see Russia or China trying to intervene in Iran the way that Russia did in Syria.
I think with the current conditions now, yeah, but I real if there was an economic button, perhaps especially on the China side, if there was a real squeeze on oil, which there I don't think there is in the foreseeable month that this is supposed to last. I don't think China would. But if there was that situation where they were, out of necessity trying to force something, I think they'd probably try a diplomatic push much more strongly than a physical push.
Said at all, anything else, what what do we need to look at over the next few days, Like that's really going to like put your make your spider senses go off, John, you go first, and then I want Jay and I want Jack.
I would listen to what Netyahu's saying because I think the most realistic understanding of how this conflict is shaping up is net Yahu's plan, and I think what the US government is saying is not as reliable. He may not be saying the truth, but I think it's probably closer to what will actually go on than what the West outside of Israel is saying.
Jay. Yeah, I was actually going to say that we need to take I think we here in the US need to take what is said by Yahoo and juxtapose that against what our own government is saying. Somewhere in
the middle is the truth. And I also believe, you know, believe what your eyes are showing you and not necessarily what you're you know, what you're hearing, especially if you have that bias, because you know it's it's it's already been proven, like Jack was saying, you know they're there, we're being lied to or told certain things when your your actual brain tells you that's not true, but your heart, you know, because a bias is telling you, well, if
they're saying, it's got to be true because it's my side. So you know, believe what your eyes are telling.
Yeah, I'll say too, like if you read al Jazeera, then you should read Fox News, And if you read Fox News, you should read Aljazeera, and like force yourself into the other bucket that you like will not ever read. You don't have to believe what you see, but it's helpful to understand like the bigger world of what's being said, what's the narrative here?
That was what a mentor of mine at the agency said. He said, if you see breaking news on CNN, turn on Fox News and listen to what they're saying about the exact same thing, then go to BBC, then everybody else, and then form your opinion from there.
Jackalope, I mean what I'm watching for, quite frankly, since there hasn't been any sort of defined strategic goal for this operation, there isn't any clear achievable end state that we're fighting for. What I'm looking for is, you know, the President gets bored with this conflict. He could pull out of it right now and claim victory because he
killed the aetola. He can say I did all of these great things, look how great I am, and then pull out before his administration gets dragged into a prolonged quagmire, which is something that they've clearly said they want to avoid. So I'm just kind of waiting for the President to just get bored with this thing and want to go back to building his ballroom.
Yeah, but you didn't see that a press conference he did the other No, it wasn't a press it was a medal of honor ceremony.
He said, he won't get bored he won't.
Get bored and literally like started talking about a Yeah he saw bumblebee and got distracted.
Yeah, yeah, I hope.
You're right, because honestly, he could have done that right, Like the way where the negotiations were before the strikes, he could have been like this is a better planned by a million against the JCPOA I beat uh Barack cousine Obama, you know what I mean, Like I've done it. I've done it better than he would ever have done it. And he would have been right right if he got that deal. You know, there's just I hope you're right. He gets bored and like, I don't know, invades Cuba or something.
I think the problem with that is, though the Iranian people are gonna pay for this no matter what we can say, we're bored, we're taking our bone, We're going yeah, and then the whatever you know government is left is going to come down on the Iranian people because they're not they can't hit us, so they're gonna smack the Iranian people.
That's my thing. Like, if you make a promise that you're going to help somebody, you got to help them. You can't like maybe it wasn't good to do the war in the first place. But if you made that promise, now you can't go back on it. You have to continue forward.
That's why I think it's immoral and unethical to launch an air campaign without having a you know, some sort of unconventional warfare program that's active on the ground to actually affect change.
Yeah, a great a lot of people who are probably going to say in the comments, well, we do have it, we just don't talk about it. We can't talk about it. Well, it doesn't matter if we don't talk about it. If we keep saying publicly we're not going to put troops
on the ground. This is not about regime scene because again, the Iranian people are listening, and whatever we're doing behind the scenes doesn't mean ship to them if they think we're not going to help, because when we're ready for them to rise up, they're not going to be and it's going to go to hell.
Also, like question, like let's say we did try and do what we did in Afghanistan and I guess early two thousand and three with Iraq at the Kurds and stuff like that, with CIA and SF you know, the buy with and through stuff. How do they how do they fight the IRGC, which is a you know, established fighting for us in a relatively modern army without our like our close hair support or you know, are fire supported, or how they even think to survive.
That h especially with the amount of drones the regime has, they can divert some of those drones to use against those rebellious forces.
Yeah, it's gonna be a crazy few weeks. I wish there was something good to fucking report on, guys. Honestly, I'm fucking done with this, you know what I mean, Like never, we never fucking do it. That's the thing. It's like, I never feel like, oh, you know what, this is actually going in the right direction at the end of a show like this. Jack Murphy The high Side incredible outlet with Sean Naylor, who literally wrote the book on Jaysack. Jack's new book is coming out in June,
The Most Dangerous Man. That link is in the description to pre order it. Jason Lynes. The links are down in the description. Jonathan Hackett Iran Shadow Weapons and the Theory of a Regular War. Both books are down in the description. Were John, You're supposed to come here, supposed to talk about how I lag You see long there's money, right, like that's what. Yeah, the original plan was, Yeah, that was the original plan.
But then we got that.
Yeah, we got a decade's worth of news in a fuck in three days. And uh, you can go to patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse and help support the show. You get both Teamhouse episodes and eyes On episodes. If you're interested in Jonathan and Jason's story, we have episodes with them on the Teamhouse, so check those out. And yeah, what else do you get? You get free uh ad free episodes and you get them early as well. So and you help support the show. Guys, A pleasure as always.
Anything else do you guys? You guys want to say anything? Are great of a host? I am no, you don't want to do that.
Okay, we have lunch with AOC yet.
Wish I wish he doesn't return my calls. All right, guys, thank.
You, all right, take care of Karen.
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