The Assad Regime Ends | EYES ON PODCAST

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That said, if you look back and hide sights twenty twenty, right, you can see the issues that could have led to this, which is Russia fully engaged in a war of their own choice and its significantly degraded their capabilities, especially outside

of the Ukraine theater. Aran Hesbolah obviously getting systemmatically dismantled by Israel, and Lebanon can't afford just to have all there are a lot of their forces fighting for Assad in his country, So that was some of the factors that led to I think this really quick collapse of the regime, and strategically it's a big failure for Iran

and Russia. So that's a good thing. And obviously Assad himself thirteen years of the civil war, responsible for hundreds of thousands, if not over five hundred thousand civilian deaths, half of the population being displaced in many millions leaving the country. So there's no love loss. There shouldn't be for anybody when it comes to the Assad regime. But the question of course is who is hts Are they truly moderated version of what they started, which was affiliate

essentially of all kinda in Syria? Is Jalani this you know, new kind of leader or is he essentially just saying what he needs to say now, just like the Taliban did during negotiations for our withdrawal. And even if he is, how is this going to play out? Is this really going to be a transition to a government selected by the people? And during that time, you know, what about the significant weapons that saw it have chemical weapons, all these things falling into the wrong hands? Does this turn

toward a civil war within a civil war? So there's a lot of questions I think that are still out there that we can force talk here, but there it's something that I think is very concerning not only to the United States but the region. Right the region is concerned about a mass exodus of refugees. And of course, we have nine hundred servicemen and women still active in Syria and the Eastern part and according to the President's statements today, he's essentially doubling down on their need to

be there. So that could change with the incoming administration, don't know, but that's another factor in this whole, this whole saga that's played out of the last forty eight hours.

a quite an interesting take on this. But the perception was that Damascus would probably prove too tough and not to crack uh and that the you know, the Russians would would at least rally to defend the capital. But obviously that didn't happen. I think, you know, to mixed point follow on, it's interesting when unexpected strategic events happened so quickly like this to see who who is who among the major players do have a kind of a backup plan, and you know, clearly Russia and Iran didn't.

They didn't anticipate this happened. Russia was involved in kind of a you know, it was focused, has been focused in the last week or so on evacuating its citizens, getting its essential personnel out of there, even out of tartlets at naval port. Doesn't mean it's given up on

these bases. So I would add that as a note of caution, and that there's negotiations already taking place and cutter between the Turks who are backing HTS and the Russians, so something, something may evolve from that, whereby the Russians still maintained a presence in serious so it's too early to celebrate. So the you know, the Turks I are well placed. It may be good news for Europe and the United States saw no crocodile talis for as odd if there is a measure of stability, and that's a

big if. And the you know, from the US perspective, aside from hitting Islamic state targets as a kind of a warning, preemptive warning, it's not clear that we had a contingency plan or have a contingency plan on the shelf to handle this year. Israelis obviously did I mean they're conducting a series of strikes right now to prevent a major weapons systems from falling into the wrong hands. They moved almost instantly into the area beyond the go On Heights as a buffer zone. So clearly, you know,

that wasn't something they threw together on the fly. That is something they had anticipated and they're reacting too. But you know, a as a note of caution, typically when brutal dictatorships and good things don't happen, at least not immediately. Think about Yugoslavia and perhaps not a brutal dictator, definitely a dictator. Think about Libya after Gaddafi, you know, still a mess, and of course Saddan after the fall of Saddam.

So history does not suggest that this, regardless of whether Jelani is is sincere about what he's saying about having an kind of an inclusive supporting an inclusive administration, and he's even saying HDS doesn't have to be the leader in this administration, even if he is sincere in that recent historical examples suggest that we're in for a period of extreme turbulence Sinceyria.

about in US detention. He was a friend or at least they who a colleague of Bagdaddy, who headed the Islamic State before they you know, they broke with the Islamic State back in when it was twenty fourteen, and as Mick said, the Our News Refront, which Jilani headed was definitely and openly and ol Cada affiliate. Since then, you know, Jolani's gone after both ISIS and al Qaeda, but that means little because even if he has reformed,

there are other factors at play. And the guys who entered the Prime minute this office, who made it into Damascus kind of in this circle government buildings fus were not HDS dudes, they were they were other sunny extremist rebels. So you know, it would be a mistake to say that Jilani that that the future of Syria is even in Jilanne's hands.

one of these guys got indoctrinated or got their PhD from being incarcerated by the United States in some form or fashion. Those are those are the ones that usually go on to lead the organization of which they started in, right, So that's something we might want to review in the future.

did he learn this? It wouldn't be surprising if he spent some time incarceration learning much of this doctrine, our own doctrine. I mean, after all, that's what Sinma did with the Israelis.

appearance soon. But it's clear he's not going back. So even if he made it out, he is, you know, going to be living in Moscow.

house and a few other places. There's been some clashes between I believe, between the Turks or turk or rather Turkish backed rebels and the Kurds in the in the northeast of the country, and of course some clashes between the Israelis and the rebels in the vicinity of Golden Heights. But aside from that, so far things seem to be

relatively quiet. The rebels have. The other thing is, rather than launch into kind of a depthification process, the rebels uh or Jili has appealed personally to police and civilian authorities, you know, as saw it loyalists remain in that post pending pending the announcement of He says it's a unity government. So again, I don't want to be pollyannerish, but at least these are good scigns. It's more than we did when we invaded Iraq.

But to your point, Andy, they are saying right, even even the opposition for USUS.

northwest they governed an area around it. That there's the Kurds you know, who essentially the SDF, but also the YPG who are in the in the north and east. And then there's and I'm not sure this is still the case how strong these guys are, but there was as a kind of Jordanian slash US backed rebel group in the south. And then you have the Alla White loyalists who are along the along the coast, and each one of those groups has its own army, right, so I mean, the the the potential for civil war to

continue is still there. But perhaps you know one incentive for that not happening, aside from you know, Turkish Katari diplomacy with well based basically Turkish Katari diplomacy, one is the fact that the Turksen and Kutter have a have a plan for a gas gas pipeline to run from Cutter to Bulgaria across Syria, which would be good news for everyone in Europe because it would reduce dependency on on Russian gas and of course good news for the US interests if that and of course Cutter and Turkey,

so you know, so that that's important because both those countries have funded HDS and the most powerful rebel groups and now they stand to benefit from having that cast oil cas platform. And then there is the incentive reconstruction itself. I mean, Syria has been devastated that you know, the cost of reconstruction is estimated around two hundred billion dollars money coming in and all those groups could potentially benefit

from that. So if if presented in the right way, and then I hate to, I hate to turn things over to Otawan and the Katori's, but certainly I don't. I'm not sure how much of an active stance U United States is going to take in this. Then then at least there is a strong incentive to maintain maintain order.

is to benefit them. So you know, if countries are willing to go into a conflict area and help do the re construction, then good ale. To be frank, it's it's not for the countries that sit on the sideline and criticize, So that I think is super important. The other part that you brought up, Andy that has a lot of people questioning is just what is Syria? Right?

So you have large segments of you mentioned all the different groups, the Alloyhites on the coast, the Sunni Arabs you know in the north west, the Kourgs taking a lot arch portion of the country in the east, and then the Arab group, which I do believe took part in actual going into Damascus on the Jordan border. I mean, if they don't come up with a comprehensive way to incorporate all the groups of Syria, they don't have a Syria.

I guess it's another way to put it. They're just gonna they all have an army, as you said, and they all have territory. So and unless other sides are willing to fight and have the ability to win, which they don't, we're essentially going to see a completely partitioned Syria that isn't actually a functioning country. So if the group, the groups that are helping in the transition don't go toward incorporating all other groups, then they're not going to

run Assyria as a country. They're going to run whatever section of the country that they already are running.

but it is Syrious bread basket. It's the most terrible land up there in the northeast in the country that is largely desert, and so that's certainly you know, the probably strong Turkish and certainly Turkish proxy incentives to take some of that land back, and that could be behind some of the fighting that's taking place now in Manbish and Raka on that scene between the Kurds and Arab Turkish back forces. But what do you think about the Russians? I mean, the first all, do you think they were

taken as by surprise as everyone else. Do you think this was a conscious decision to kind of.

just like the rest of us. And by the time they made the decision, you know, the ball was rolling and they realized that they would have to contribute a lot to a fight that would largely probably require some ground forces since Hesblo removed a lot of theirs, and they weren't willing to do it, nor did they have it.

And then when they started moving their assets out of you know, Tartuse and Latakia, I think that was an indicator to everybody that they weren't going to fully support the regime and that's when you know, all of his regime forces can see that too, and then it just it starts building on itself. They start abandoning their positions and were drawing and just disappearing, and then it just

becomes FATA complete. And that's what happened. So I think Russia realizes that it lost quite a bit in this, but they also realized that they didn't have the ability once it was really Roland to do anything about it.

what are your thoughts on that? Which way do you That's an impossible question. To which way do you think he's gonna lean?

you feel better. Right, They're not going to attack our strategic treaty to ally the presence of the United States. I don't think the SDF would do that anyway. But you know, without getting into the you know, the whole discussion, I always thought the best argument we had, but certainly was it did holdsway with many of our Turkish allies was that the United States being with the Kurds is a positive for Turkey. Right, So if that's going to be the quid pro quo, I hope that we don't

go down that route. We need to stay. We need to ensure that our partners are Since your said, it's a very minor contribution that has had a very significant outcome, not just in terms of defeating ISIS and ensuring the enduring defeat, but strategically against Iran and Russia. And that the proof is right in front of us today. So hopefully that he can see that as well.

So that was the other issue. It was an operational security thing.

although some may not think so. To deny Russia a war water port in the Mediterranean, that's I would say number one. Number two is just having a stable energy producing country there and no longer a stucking chest wound that is disgorging immigrants across Europe. And it's you know, it'd be difficult to understate the destabilizing influence that the war has had across Europe. Since twenty eleven. I mean

the flood of Syrian refugees. Turkey alone is home to what may come in it's millions, right, I think, something incredible like four million. But so is the rest of Europe. There isn't a country in Europe except for some niecent countries that have absolutely and actively blocked them, that is

not home to large numbers of Syrian refugees. And the effect on the economy, the effect on geopolitics, you know, the brex It, the rise of populist parties in certainly in Hungary and for while they're in Poland and other countries in Europe, and the rise of the right, the New Right in Germany or directly related to the inflow of refugees, most of whom are Syrians. So you see what a destabilizing influence to war in Syria has had, you know, across at least across Europe. I would argue

across the world, all of those things. Negating all of those things and enabling reconstruction, a stable government, an alternate source of energy for countries in Europe are things that are definitely in the interests of the United States.

But the secondary benefits that I would say we got is everything Andy just said, right. So it's pushing back against Russia, it's pushing back against Iron, it's cutting off the Iran you know, corridor that brings arms to Hesbla. It's all of these things. But the authority is the au MF, the original au MF. So we were there to help enable a partner to defeat ISIS. But our presence there is beyond just that, and we get a

lot of strategic benefit from it. And by the way, if we were every time we talked about reducing any of the forces. When I was in the Pentagon, the first thing we heard from is Israel, and then Jordan, and then it went down the line, the countries in the region do not want to see the United States

leave here period. Period. They might have questions about, you know, what we're doing, who we're doing it, with all that stuff, but there's almost a universal from my experience believe that the US does help bring some stability in what would be complete chaos if we left. And that includes on Tauent with is in the southern border area of Jordan, and obviously all the physicians with the SDF in the east.

But the US is there primarily for countering terrorism, but the secondary is countering Russia, countering Iran, and I think that's just as important. Now it's shown to be that it's actually.

but a very strategically important one. And for a while we held it down with you know what was an aob It was a kind of reinforced company with a partner nation force, and everyone was asking, you know, you know, the media was asking why we're there, But it was a we were a strategic speed bump and we were carving out I mean it was more than that, but we were we were establishing just by our presence there, establishing a buffer zone that now is more important than ever.

So to mix point, yeah, I would hope that we retain a presence there. Nine hundred dudes total in in the you know, the mid lower Euphrates Valley, which is it's a very small amount, but again goes and by the way, in a large bush, not all but a large portion of those special operations forces. So it goes again to why do we have special operations forces, small numbers achieving strategic effect. I think it's a great example

working by with and through partner nation forces. The other thing, the other thing, the in answer your question as far as negating bad consequences and what follows on is remember this, the Russians have been pouring money and iron to a lesser extent, have been pouring money into the Assad regimes defense industry for a while. All right, I mean Assad has we know he has poison gas he's used it multiple times, or at least yeah, multiple, It is fair

to saying more than once multiple times. You know, obviously he's got a fleet of jets, he's got a Even after the Israeli attacks, a significant anti air defense capability goes on and on. All of those assets falling into the wrong hands could spell bad things for stability in the Middle East and for the United States. It's interesting. We may not have had a contingency plan, but as I commentated, the Israelis did, and looking, you know, I'm

on Israeli official Twitter sites. Their air force conducted a series of strikes yesterday and over one hundred locations, okay, according to them, the biggest air campaign that they have conducted since nineteen seventy three, since the Young Capol War. And what do they focus on? Weapons production facilities, air

defense systems, Syrian fighter jets. I don't know about, you know, WND doesn't mention that, but clearly that was part of their contingency plan to deny all of these weapons to you know, prevent them from falling into the wrong hands, which is a good thing.

on that team. But it would be interesting to know, because I imagine there will be some kind of records maybe if they didn't destroy them, that you know, some of these chemical weapons may have came from Iraq. That's that's

for the analyst and the IC to determine. But it's an interesting side note is there's going to be a pretty significant intelligence effort now that largely these folks abandoned their posts, the intelligence service especially, and they're going to try to see not only that which is of interest to the US I see as a whole, but everybody that helped the regime in the last you know, twenty years, certainly last teen years, and how they got around sanctions

and how they did that. It could all be there. So there's a lot of nervous people. I think companies, et cetera. And maybe they should be, because I think this is going to be this.

we need to be ending. It's just gonna on a on a lighten note, you know, I regardless of who was doing it, it was great seeing all these dudes being freed from from prisons. You know, that was something like the big prison in Harms, I forget the name, it begins with S, but something like thirteen thousand prisoners being freed from there, and these people were having gone through, you know, just an imaginable hardship over the last few years.

There's one guy who was imprisoned by Assad's father, Halfez because he beat him in a horse competition, like a show champion competition, and there's been in prison since then, you know. But these guys being released and just wandering down the street, it's just I mean, you can imagine how that must have felt. I mean, I got a lot of midst of all the chaos, like a lot of vicarious pleasure and relief from watching that.

it's got to be super emotional. I have a lot of Syrian friends, some of the use to or still do work with the White Helmets, So they've been texting me, you know, reuniting with people that had been in prison for ten years, tortured the entire time. It's we shouldn't go past that worrying about everything that we should worry about, but we should to your point, and he recognize that for the Syrian people, this is absolutely a hugely emotional experience and one that will never be forgotten in the

country for sure. In fact that I remember when we were going through Iraq, we came down from the north, and it was a similar situation where the prisons were being let out and we were talking to some older man who was going through a translation with his son, and he kept whispering like really really softly, and finally as he started crying, and you know, we said, why is he crying? And he goes, I told my dadd he didn't have to whisper anymore. You know. Now it's

stuck to me going, oh wow, yeah he should. He should have a whisper again. Right, he's uh, he's free, and it's it's it's something that we should remember, right, we get you know, we're analysts. We focus on the national security implications and that's what people I think want us to do. But it's also they're a very human part of this. And right now it is on display in Syriah.

it's extraordinary. But also a big YouTuber in Korea. Good to see you, retired lieutenant general doing that big following, you know, to include among the young with comments about a recent term it's being called an auto coup, right, auto not as an automatic but being imposed from above by President Yun in Korea and what the implication saw and also his comments about threat from within within South Korea and uh and in the North and from North Korea.

You know something that has dropped off the radar, perhaps with all these all these other events around the wall.

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