The 28 Point Peace Plan for Ukraine is Garbage | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

our own national security. And then even if you don't buy that, there's three hundred and thirty five billion dollars worth of frozen Russian assets that they could use to support Ukraine. It wouldn't even be our own money. Right. This is one of those times you have to decide what side you're on it it's pretty clear, and you don't get you know, you don't get peace by capitulation. You're just gonna get more conflict.

bit of back and forth with that. I mean, I right through the twenty eighth the whole thing, and it's an absolute it's kind of a joke. And here's Andy and he's not even there. It's okay, we keep going. I'm mutah, so Eric, Andy, Andy, we're recording, So get.

Wig cough. Uh, it's chaos. If you read through the twenty eight points, it's like kind of like, you know, there's some good stuff in there, but it's mostly bullshit. Like, let's be honest. Uh So I'm gonna pass this over to the experts. Tell me what you guys are thinking in terms of what this peace plan means. Also, it was they gave him a gave you crane a deadline

of Thanksgiving, which is kind of fucking hilarious. You know, the state of your here's the future of your country, and you have five seven days to decide, So let us know as soon as possible. Mitch, I'm edatorializing now, guys. Sorry, alert like you should maybe beat, you know, play hardball at fucking Russia. You know, the actual aggressor of this war over you guys, make you go ahead.

a Russian drafted plan. So I don't know, but there's certainly a lot several media reports from very valid sources that Secretary of Rubio essentially said that the US did not draft it and imply that Russia did so to start with that, don't know if it's true, but that's

very consistent with the way Russia does negotiations. It's very much their version of psychological warfare, what they call decision shaping or reflexive control for those of you who follow the Russian means of state craft, which is always intertwined

with intelligence operations. So it's possible that Russia drafted the plan to look like it came from the United States, gave it to a delegate of the United States, let it circulate, and then leaked it to the press to basically cause a lot of consternation with European partners and obviously with Ukraine. I don't know that that's what happened, but that is what happened as far as like the

internation part of it. So, and there was a lot of pushback not only from all our European partners, but Republicans in Congress, including the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, And that was the part about Secretary would be a briefing those Senators who are very much not in alignment with what it's

asking Ukraine to do. So some of the points and then obviously turn over to the nflos here if you concede completely your territory, not just acknowledge it, you can't take it back militarily. That is obviously rewarding aggression, and it can't be done just by the leadership of Ukraine. It has to include a referendum that would be entirely

against their interests. It then requires that Ukraine cuts its military in half, that it can never join NATO, that European forces who have already volunteered can't go in to secure you know, that the war does not restart. And then it gives a tenuous security guarantee which doesn't appear to be, you know, essentially a treaty what they would need to guarantee it. And it's important to point out that Ukraine currently has an agreement by the United States

and the UK to protect it from an evasion, and you can see how that's going. So they and then you know, there's even some versions that say the Ukraine would have to pay for the security guarantee actually compensate

the United States for it. So I'm now hoping that this was a Russian plan that just gets ripped up and thrown in the trash can, and that they start over with one that's far more aligned with Ukraine, which is our partner, not Russia, and that the Europeans really step up because there's a lot going on, I'm sure, and you can get into it, Jake, get into it on the battlefield right now, and it's not really going great.

So we need to step up our support, tear up this agreement, start over, step up our support militarily and sanctions and the release of frozen funds or we're going to see a potential loss long term. It's going to take a while in Europe of a key democrat Acount Melbourne.

What does Ukraine get? It gets a ceasefire which is likely to be temporary, and an American guarantee that Russia will not attack again. I think mich already summed up very nicely what that guarantee means. Yeah, I mean, this really does favor Putin because aside from limiting Ukrainians military cutting it in half, and by the way, there's absolutely no limit on the Russian military. So Ukraine is being

pushed back. As they said, additional territory is being handed to Russia would be handed to Russia under this plan.

And what's significant about that, Aside from the fact that whole cities full of Ukrainians are being turned over to the Russians, what's significant about that is that the Ukrainians of the last both sides, of the last two to three years have built up a series of fortifications and so now for Ukraine to pull back hand those fortifications over to Russia puts Russia in a doubly strong position if and when, I think we all know, when Russia

decides to kick off the offense once again. No NATO troops are allowed to be stationed in Ukrainian territory, which puts an end to European plans which were until now supported by the United States to station a reassurance force there and essentially so Putin now he gets additional territory. It's a win for him, and he gets lifting lifting

of sanctions which be hugely popular. He gets to rebuild his army, and he gets to continue to threaten not just Ukraine, but the you know, the whole flank of NATO, uh, you know, all all the way from from the Arctic to the Black Sea. And you know, if you've been following Putin, that's he is. He's he has to keep he has to keep gnawing away at at at what he perceives to be the enemies and trying to regain parts of the Soviet Empire, if not all of it.

And that's what he's going to continue to do, uh, you know, aside from aside from anything else, We're going to look at the strategic messaging of this plan to to polices like Taiwan and South Korea. Again. You know, I'm just hoping this isn't going to be painted as

a US plan. I agree with Mick it it looks like it was drawn out by a bunch of Russians after a heavy vodka drinking session and and and slipped into the hands maybe of a comatose diplomat who is now trumpeting at this as a as a US plan.

with Jelenski and Trump couple. I mean, I was reading through this plan and it's almost fucking mind boggling that this could like you can dictate trying to dictate to Ukraine. You're gonna hold elections within one hundred days, You're gonna change your constitution, You're gonna you know, like you guys mentioned like cap your military. It's like, where the fuck do you get off telling us what to do with our country? And that's the US and Russia. I'm saying,

that's Russia, definitely. It's just incredible. And there's another point here in terms of like the the frozen assets, the Russian assets, and one hundred billion would be given to Ukraine for the for the reconstruction. All three hundred billions should be given to Ukraine, if not for the reconstruction, for weapons to fucking keep smoking Russian soldiers and the

interesting pizza like I was looking at is the US will receive fifty profits of these projects. It's like not everything is a fucking hotel deal, you know what I'm saying, Like these are real people's lives, Like let's get a ceasefire done. That makes sense for everybody, not so al much.

They can fuck off the Russians in my opinion, but for Ukraine and then work on a lost, long lasting piece plan instead of like just these fucking grubby ass hands trying to get in and loot Ukraine for what it's worth.

of our security assistance down recently, losing it entirely. Is I hope there's there's some the Europeans step up right, I hope there's some churchhills out there, a lot less chamberlains because this is going to require and you know the battles that are going on right now, polkrits Am I saying that, right Andy, the hub of Ukrainian logistics is by all analysts I'm talking to, the Ukrainians are

outnumbered almost ten to one. That the Tendu was hold on, that city would be one of the biggest to fall and it would really impact Ukrainians' ability to resupply themselves. Right. So, they're fighting against an overwhelming enemy for multiple for multiple years, and they have lukewarm support not only by their allies, but their allies that are literally right next to them. So this is always has been. But this is the

situation where your neighbor's house is on fire. Are you going to wait to your houses on fire to start putting it out? Are you going to go help your neighbor here?

nuclear war every time. We all know it, ignore it, move on, or else You're basically going to go down as cowards in my opinion, and I don't think anybody wants to be going down as a coward in history. But this is the history has been written right now. Hopefully people are going to take heat of that. And I'm not just talking about the US, I'm talking about all of the democracies that claim to be an alliance.

And what we've done is kind of tiptoe around in the shallow water, being afraid of Putin and given things here and there, we should have poured on the lethal weight right from the start, and then we would be facing a very different situation now. I think all of

us understand that who understand Putin? But we are where we are now, And I would say, you know, the best thing for Zelenski to do is not to fight this plan openly, but to try and negotiate and bring up other terms and counter terms, play Putin's game and watch Putin reject things, and eventually I think this administration will lose patients again, you know. And meanwhile, appeal to

the Europeans. I mean, Europe's having some severe fiscal province right now, but they need to step up to the players I've said, and and I think you know there are European leaders willing to do that. Poland is the Baltic countries. The UK even under a labor government, has been more of a staunch support of Ukraine than our own government. So I think that, you know, to your point of finding a church, I'm not sure there is a church out there unless you're looking at a very

gallic one macron. I know that's going to cen you to down people's spines. But you may not find individual leaders. But in the Baltics actually and in Poland, you're going to find very determined front to whatever the cost, to

continue to support Ukraine to fight Russia. And Europe's make great strides in the last two years in manufacturing immune particularly one five five rounds, which you know that there's been a shortfall lot and uh, and Europe's going all in to include Germany on providing a defense systems uh, the you know, long range cruise and ballistic missiles. So

you know, I think, I think that's what we're going to see. It's just, of course, hugely disappointing that our own country is no longer a staunch defender of freedom. Also, it appears yea, and.

going to do for us? You know, and China's probably thinking this is perfect play This is a perfect playbook, you know. So the ramifications on the other side of the global to me are just as important. That's what's happening in Ukraine.

enhances our own national security. And then even if you don't buy that, there's three hundred and thirty five billion dollars worth of frozen Russian assets they could use to support Ukrae. It wouldn't even be our own money, right, So this is one of those times you have to decide what side you're on it. It's pretty clear. You don't get you know, you don't get peace by capitulation. You're just going to get more conflict.

talked about this before. It's just incomprehensible. I mean, anything that moves or amitzer heat signature is killed. You know, the Russians, there's talks of the Russians or you know stories of the Russians are attacking now on you know, carrying thermal blankets, stripping down to almost nothing in you know, small groups like twos and threes using sometimes quad bikes or motorcycles. No one uses APCs or infantry fighting vehicles anymore.

Russie estimates. That's the Royal United Service Institute reputable. That's gonna say Russian reputable. British think tank estimates that in any given attack involving armored vehicles, two out of three are destroyed. I mean, the attrition is just incredible. Manned vehicles are becoming obsolete, and that's why the Ukrainians have have developed unmanned vehicles that shoot, move and communicate using AI.

It's quite incredible. And there is a story in the Economists about the evacuation of medical person of I'm sorry, casualties, and they're using unmanned ground vehicles to do that. They recovered one guy from from no man's land. You know, I don't it's an exaggeration, but it says in the story, Yeah, and he gets He just climbs in the vehicle. It's like an egg, isn't. It closes around him and then Russians are trying to hit it with drones. It hits

a mine and just keeps rolling. I mean, it's just unbelievable.

you can see how things are shaping. And of course drone warfare is I mean, they just took a helicopter down I think an m I eight with a with a drone two hundred miles beyond enemy lines if I read it correctly. So all these lessons, that's the other

thing that you ask to get from this. We should be sucking all this not only fully support in Ukraine with support, not fighting, but we could be getting all of these lessons learned because this we're looking at the face of modern warfare right now in Ukraine and it's ugly, but you don't want to lose it. So we need we need to be gathering all this information.

slim chance of surviving. And these drones are just hovering over both sides. Are these drones just hovering over the other's territory looking for targets. I mean, it's it's a terrifying It's like a dystopian movie about the future.

Of course, they're pro Russian. They always have been pro Russian because they're Russians, right, But now a bunch of them have turned against the conduct of the war. I mean, they've always been quite critical, but now they come out and forced to criticize particular generals and the government itself on how the war has been conducted. And they in turn have been labeled as terrorists, hunted down and in

some cases in prison. So you know, again they when this narrative about Russia, Everything's going Russia's way and Ukraine has no hope. It's not true. Russia has been advancing, but Russia's being threatening on the verge of taking pop Ross for almost two years now, which just shows a

good point taking place. And for every yard they take, they're suffering just an incredible number of casualties, one thousand a day, you know, on a good day too, you know, and Russy was saying during assaults that can be fifteen hundred or more.

don't know what it is. Because Russia, if they get what they want you know, based on this twenty eight point plan there, that's not going to stop them there as far as I'm concerned.

to Gelbachok pulling people out. This is a totally different situation, different regime. And by the way, Russia has not gone to second round of conscription. I mean, the last round of conscription was over two years ago. And that's because they're getting enough volunteers and they're offering huge amounts of money. The real story about how the war is being fought isn't filtering back to the Russian public. I mean, last year twenty twenty four, the Russians recruited like four hundred

and thirty thousand troops, right, so they're recruiting more. Even if they're losing one thousand day, they're still recruiting more than they're losing. And in twenty twenty five, I think it's almost that that. I was like four hundred and three thousand, an enormous number of volunteers now, and plus of course they're emptying the jails. The amount of money that these guys are being offered is a huge amount.

It's life changing money, but of course it's sadly for most of them, many of them, actually probably most of them. It's a life changing experience, and not in a good way.

of mental and physical disabilities. It's just crazy.

why the line is so porous. That their units are routinely now staffed at forty percent or below, and those are frontline units. It's you know, they're just finding it really hard to define the manpower to fill combat units. And then they've got a huge desertion rate, you know. And you know, frankly, who can blame these guys because there was a very because they are so low on numbers, that means that for the guys they do have, they're

spending an unending time in the trenches. It's not now even if when you read about the First World War, units were rotated, right, I mean, I'm not saying it was a picnic, but at least units were rotated back from the front after a period of time, and so you'd have a regiment manning a line and battalions would rotate, so you always had a battalion in the rest period. And the Ukrainians just can't do that. When you were talking fondly about the First World War, it's a good example.

But you know, in the first year, and I mean I know this from personal experience, first year of the war, that there was a tremendous sturge of volunteers to go to the front. But sadly, you know, I mean that was three years ago, and those guys statistically would have been killed or wounded Ukraine's lost, you know, the best of its You some six hundred thousand estimated men eligible to fight, and I don't know if that includes eighteen

to twenty five year olds have left the country illegally. If you were between the age of sixty and eighteen, you're not allowed and mail you cannot leave Ukraine. But an estimated six hundred thousand have left.

eight point piece plan. I don't think it's gonna be signed and we're gonna buy win by some by Christmas will have a fucking parade more to come obviously with that, I wanna uh touch on what's going on, what's going on with Venezuela. A bunch of what are they called note rams like yeah, yeah that uh, you know, airspace is closed and stuff like that in and around the Caribbean and Venezuela reports about doing leaf lift drops. We have seen a bit of sabotage going on, some oil

refinery and oils stations going up in flames. You know who could that be? Obviously the CIA working with Venezuelan people. Ah, what are we looking at with that? Make You had mentioned a little bit about that on our group chat.

If it works, it could you know, it certainly would be good for the people of Venezuela and it would avoid the need for military action. If it doesn't work, we certainly have the firepower in place for air and missile strikes. Whether it's just focused on drug infrastructure, narcotics infrastructure, or also on the capabilities. We'll find out. But the dates that people are talking about is twenty four November because that's when the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation goes into place.

They covert efforts, which won't stop. Of course, even if we go over, we'll have time to at least begin and we could see a pretty busy week next week. Of course, the questions from they are going to be is how limited are these military actions if there are military actions, and what is Congress going to do. Are they going to do nothing? Are they going to They're going to require that they're approve, you know, under the

War Powers Act. There's a lot of questions, but certainly we could see a lot of action coming up right time for Thanksgiving.

seem to be far fetched, wouldn't it. I mean, especially in light of what we've been hearing from the administration on the side almost being isolationists and avoiding foreign wars going ahead, or maybe fighting against Venezuela doesn't count as a foreign war in their books. I don't know much more.

in the Middle East. I mean that is that that is an argument for the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, but I cannot think of a comparative argument to use as far as going to war with Venezuela.

think was supported by the by the situation. To Handy's point, I mean, I would love to stop narcotics coming to the United States, and I do think Maduro has destroyed Venezuela if it's caused a lot of instability in the Western hemisphere. I hope that we can do this. If we're going to do it, I hope we can do it without the need to put any servicemen or women in arms. So I hope the covert program that the President's already you know, announced, is successful.

problems with killing members of cartel. But that's not necessarily the people who are dying number one, which is a concern, right if we're killing innocent people. And number two, I.

I gotta jump you guys, alright later we might be maybe talking to you later this week with this kicks off. Be a heck of a Thanksgiving special.

with each other.

are we kidding here? So if somebody explained to me the fucking point about fucking taking out fucking Maduro.

me think about something as you normally do. And you know, we talked a little bit about Taiwan earlier, and we've all expressed concern about about kind of the drop in the USA's stance about projecting strategic ambiguity right about whether or not we would defend Taiwan because US three and I know Mickfield's this way too, because he has said as much US we may doubt very seriously that the United States will go to war over Taiwan, that Americans,

America's sons and daughters will be in hard to be put in harms way, I don't. I think probably that would be politically unacceptable to the American public. But it has always been the stance of administrations on either you know, either side of the aisle not to tell China that right too, you could see they fuck around and find out to use that over used the expression and certainly deposture ourselves. And look what the Marine Corps is doing

with false design twenty thirty. As though we do seriously intend to go to war with China, I mean, China is regarded as being our piecing threat for acquisitions, for training and everything. And even if it is just a colossal demonstration, there is a point to it, right, But we undermine that point if we turn our backs openly

on Taiwan. That is a concern. So having said that, though I read an interesting article the other day that from a I love the term China watcher, but the China watcher right in one of the and DC and I remember his name in a moment doesn't matter, but you know his point is this, Look, the State Department reached out to the KMT opposition member in Taiwan, the Kumin Tang Party and the KMT. They're not exactly pro China, but they're less opposed to China, right, they're more open

to conciliation, although obviously not giving up Taiwanese independence. So I'm talking about in Taiwan. The State Department curiously enough, reached out the opposition leader and invited him to visit the United States. That is bizarre, all right, instead of Taiwan's Taiwan's president and I forget the name of the party, but who represents a party that is very openly I won't say belligerent, but anti China and is very strident in voicing its intention to defend Taiwan to the last man,

the last bullet. Right, So USS has done this to send a message perhaps and who did you send a message to Taiwanese opposition of a more conciliatory to China, maybe to China. And at the same time, G has been mass firing members of his military, uh, the army, in the navy primarily, and this is these are the old Guard who spent their whole lives preparing to invade China.

So anyway, this, this China watcher postulates, I like that term, that what is happening is that there has been talks between G and Trump and the you know, the kind of the talks have gone along the line so of hey, look, let's you know, blah blah blah tariffs, but let's also

talk Taiwan. Maybe there is some compromise here that doesn't involve a high out invasion of Taiwan, but also involves more of a partnership between Taiwan and China, and China involving the Kuman Tang Party uh going ahead, and then you know, both sides can declare victory and it's going to be better for both sides. And then g having committed to that or having decided that that's the best course of action, now is faced by the old god of his military. You are like, hey, boss, what the

fuck are you talking about? No, that's all we mean, that's that's our whole reason for being is to invade Taiwan. And so now he's getting hard with them and firing them in mess. I mean, it's an interesting hypothesis. I don't think he has any evidence, but it's certainly you know, informed speculation answers the white question, Right, why wouldn't the opposition leader to Kuman Tang Party here, why would she be firing.

kind of like under the table negotiations like.

consideratory conciliatory to China is in the minority, is only out. Anyway, would I bring that up?

what's up, We'll let you guys know. And the best place to support the show is patreon dot com. Slash the Teamhouse. You get both eyes on geopolitics and the Teamhouse ad free early and if you have any questions you can shoot his questions. And yeah, as always this is great.