Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of AI on Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick mulroy. I'm dimitrikon takos lot cooking as usual. First on the list is, uh, the Ukraine Russia talks in Istanbul that took place that just ended about a day ago. Uh, with no real I mean
some movement, but not really much. They've agreed to swap a thousand POW's one thousand for one thousand, first talk since twenty twenty two since the war started between actually Ukraine and Russia together in the room, I mean Putin was nowhere to be found, which is not really surprising. I'm sorry, I was reading that like Moscow kind of sees it as a win. I guess, like doing nothing is a win for them, and like the Ukrainians are
not exactly happy with down. There was some talks that there was like ultimatums talked about, and how Russia demanded that Ukraine remove their troops from Ukrainian territory, which is fucking hilarious. I mean, anyway you slice it, like if you're not like part of the FSB or GRU like, I don't know how you could spin this at all, right, like if you if you're on the payroll, I don't
know how you spin this. And Russia's Savor Medvedev tweeted recently like literally probably thirty minutes an hour ago, like threats and stuff like that, like he's another lunatic.
Yeah.
One other thing I read too that the Pope, the new Pope all for the Vatican has like a possibility for a place to do negotiations and stuff like that. Zelenski did call and they did agree to talk more, but like I feel like that's probably Russia just trying to stall.
Mick. What what do you got with this?
Well, I think do you summed it up there pretty well? The the UH summit and instabul was called for, by the way, by Putin. It's a president Putin called the summit. Then refuse to show up and face President Zelenski face to face right shows you, you know, his level of a confidence in his position and certainly looking across the aisle from somebody who I think is far superior to him as a leader. And then they basically did nothing right.
I mean, this prisoner swaps good obviously for the prisoners who getting released, and you know the fact that it was if you want to look at, you know, class off whole kind of thing at all. A thousand prisoners means a lot more to Ukraine than it does to Russia. Yes, so generally doesn't doesn't care, doesn't give a damn about their troops. Chances are these guys will get you know, patched up, fixed up, fueled up, and be back on the battlefield for the Ukrainian side. So I think that's good.
But it's also clear that our Russia is not interested at all in a real ceasefire negotiation process. As long as they consider themselves winning and they're basically making very minor progress in the battlefield, they're not going to come to the table. And I think that's that's up to the coalition that supports Ukraine to change, right, So we need to stop talking about secondary sanctions and releasing Russian freeze frozen assets in Europe and increasing security assistance, and
we need to do all those things. They need to happen. If they don't happen, then you know, we're getting close to the definition of insanity. We just keep doing the same thing expecting a different outcome. It's time now to announce these things happening. Give a deadline. Russian could see the clock ticking. Secondary sanctions will be you know, going to a place on July tenth or whatever it is. Whatever they need. You know, there's a process that has
to take place. So but initiate the process now. And if this is the date, we're going to start releasing thirty billion dollars a week, I'm just making this up, yeah, but these are real consequences from there's a three hundred billion plus I think in Belgium alone to Ukraine. And you know you're seeing like Italy just donated several hundred
armored personnel carriers. It's still happening, but they need to announce a substantial increase potentially even start getting ready to start moving forces around at the border, right, because there's a there's there's strong.
Talk about like NATO forces.
Well, I mean I wouldn't call it NATO because the US would likely oppose it, but countries are allowed to move their own forces.
Yeah, Right, so.
There is talk about like if if Russia starts making significant advances, are the Coalition of the willing, so the UK, France, Germany and Poland willing to send troops in the Kiev. Right, they don't need permission of Russia to send for Ukraine, to invite other European forces into Kiev, especially if Russia won't have a seasfire, right so, and the original plan of the United States had them go in during a
ceasefire which Russia, which Russia will posed. So there needs to be less you know, talking about what we could do and more doing what we could do can do. And I think that's what's coming next. Obviously the Pope is coming in with a lot of support. It he's liked. I mean, he's the Pope, so he expected to be like. But he's just this. This Pope seems to be particularly like. Not that Francis wasn't, but he could hold negotiations. And
I think they should call it and they should. We should send people and obviously the Ukrainians and European partners and see if Russia shows up, if they can't come to a ceasefire negotiation hosted by the Pope, right, then you got your answer, Yeah, you got your answer. Right. It's all smoke and merits. It's all smoking marits. And next time they demand that Ukraine withdraw from Ukraine, it should be immediately dismissed. It shouldn't have considered a legitimate
offer or negotiation. It needs to be a thirty day unconditional ceasefire. That's first, and then they start talking about ending the conflict long term until they get there, but they should. I mean, I know it might be some posturing, but if the Pope calls for a summit in the Vatican on this date, that could be the kickoff of
all the consequences that come after. When they don't show up, or they don't show up and don't don't don't actually agreed to a thirty date unconditional spar then security assistance goes up, penalties, sanctions, additional sanction, secondary sanctions, and the start of the release of the That's what I think is the only thing that's going to get Russia's attention. They only understand consequences. Compliments and capitulation just makes them more bold.
Yeah.
I also looked at like who attended the meetings too, Like so like the Ukrainian defense minister was there, which is like got pretty high up, yes, And like for the Russians, the guy who's leading it was just like one of Putin's like advisors, right, and like maybe he's got to sway or whatever. Maybe he does have that wasta, but like Lavrov wasn't there. There wasn't anybody there of like you know, big big name, big face that people know and you know, at least recognize as somebody who's
substantial in Russia. I mean, I'm sure, like ci An and listen all exactly about this dude and stuff like that, I'm sure he does have a pull. But to go from like yeah, a week before when Putin's calling for this stuff to wins Lance, He's like, yeah, I'll be there, like I'll be there with ells On right, like I'm ready to talk, and then he just like took completely fucking balks at it. It's like, what is the strategic value for Russia in doing that or Putin and doing that?
Is it just like throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks for them? Like I don't understand like the logic.
I think for them, they think it keeps them in the discussion as part of this process for a ceasefire, right, so we called it, we showed up, But it has to actually have substance, right, So it's if not, it's just a stalling deck. We're just trying to see how much more they can take on the battlefield. It's it's really obvious, and I know it's obvious to everybody. So I'm pointing out something, well to most people, I'm not putting most most of our people listening, I think right now,
are like, yeah, no kidding. That's why I say they pick a date really early, like as soon as possible at the Vatican when we hit that thirty day ceasefire goes into place. If they Russians don't show up or don't agree to a thirty day ceasefire, then it turns into a planning session, obviously out of the Vatican, because the Vatican isn't going to be part of the planning session for Ukraine winning necessarily, they need to stay neutral. Then it immediately it shifts. They leave the Vatican and
they start planning. You know, Prime Minister Malone, he's a big supporter of Ukraine, so they can just go down the road to Rome and boom, they start planning. Okay, how were we going to win this thing? Then that's you got to you gotta play to win, right, You can't play to tie, you can't play to capitulate. You gotta play to win. And we are so far past the time when that needs to happen.
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And I think even the Trump administration, which came in as a different perspective than say, the Biden administration, has realized that this is clearly an issue of Russia not righting. Ukraine is the grief party. Ukraine was invaded. It wasn't because Ukraine was going to join NATO. Rukaina has been asking to join NATO fourteen years before the war started, and we said no each time. Yeah, and NATO has expanded because of the Russian decision to invade Ukraine.
So also like if let's say Russian never invaded but they still have one hundred and fifty thousand troops on the border of Ukraine, NATO's not going to be like yeah, well accept you with open arms, right, Like, it's not like they're gonna take that into consideration of like what's going to trigger an Article five And let's say something does trigger an Article five Ukraine. This is just a thought experiment now. But you know, then you have to see, like, oh,
is NATO up to snuff? Are they really willing to enforce Article five on let's say a new member, right Like, so I couldn't. I couldn't believe like it would be an easy process for Ukraine to have gotten into NATO, even if when like I remember when George Bush was talking about Georgia becoming a NATO member and stuff like that, Like that's all kind of rhetoric, Like it's not really like there's a process obviously that goes goes, goes through it.
I mean Sweden and Finland they joined, but it wasn't really like yeah, you guys are in, no problem. We had shit to deal with with Turkey and stuff like that to allow Sweden, was it in or whatever?
You know, like yeah, right, focus, So it's like k and all that stuff which is now could put PKK. That's an other topic. They've they've basically closed shop. But you're right, but there is a scenario where NATO where Ukraine could get in to NATO if they agree to you know, not seed territory, but stop fighting. And yeah, you know, obviously Russia does control part of their territory
about eighteen percent. I mean, I think Ukraine should be the one to decide this, but if they do decide it, they should be get instant membership for the rest of Ukraine in the NATO, right as a compromise. Yeah, so that's it's frozen. It's frozen, doesn't mean that that's part of Russia. Like the National Committee should recognize it, but they're not going to do anything to take it back. So crimea essentially be Russia. But that's there is a scenario.
That's the security guaranty right, right, So.
Once again it shows just how strategically bad this was for Russia. Right, So they end up with a completely demolish section of Ukraine that isn't internationally recognized as Russia. And then Ukraine becomes part of NATO, you know, the most viable part in the United States moves in in large numbers to help, you know, extrapolate the natural resources.
It's a NATO country and that's good for Russia. I mean, Putin makes just bad decisions, but we need to make it a bad decision on his part and stop basically you know, screwing around.
You think that he made this decision to go into Ukraine because like his his intel and his defense guys were just like feeding him bullshit like, oh, we're going to smoke these guys in like a week or two.
That's a good question because like to be the analyst in this are intel with Sammy, we're going to take them, right, So I mean, okay, so yes, I'm sure that they have a bit of the tail the boss what he wants to hear things in Russia. Yeah, but I do believe, just like we believe, that they would be able to
take Russia. I mean it is the difference in size of military postulation resources, solid alliances to be honest, because Ukraine had no alliances other than you know, the United States and the UK and Russia that said that they wouldn't get invaded when they gave up their nuclear US, right, But it wasn't a real alliance because proven we don't
keep our work unless it's an actual treaty. So if you look go back to February at twenty two, we were almost in line with what I think Russia and tel just was telling Pootin, Yeah, you're going to win. It's going to take three weeks around that, and keep's going to fall and the government's going to flee into exile. And they have it, and they completely underestimated, as did we, the well of the Ukrainian people, the incompetence of Russian
military planners and executors for that matter. Their logistics system couldn't even keep up with an invasion of a country that was right next to them.
Crazy.
Yeah, I mean it's it's you know, the US can can invade and supply a force on the other side of the world that's completely landlocked Afghanistan for example. Yeah, Russia, couldn't you get kings and ship? Yeah, you bring America lines? Yeah, you know, twenty five miles in from their border.
That is a job. Yeah. Yeah.
I mean everyone's been talking about how like, well, ever since this like Russia's armies essentially a paper tiger, They're not not going to sneeze app But I mean, if you can't take over, it's like US not being able to just a bad example given the times but it's US not being able to like invade and take.
Over Canada, right, I don't know you could. Actually it might be a similar size difference.
Yeah right, well like population wise yeah yeah yeah, and military size.
I mean you have to look it up. Yeah, I think it really showed. And the Russia has had to rely on North Korean troops potentially Chinese troops Russia, I mean, Iranian drones, and now it looks like I might provide short short range missiles and North Korean artillery by the millions. Yeah, right, So if they didn't have that manufacturing, they're very cheap manufacturing in North Korea, they'd be they'd be in bad place. Yeah, because they're losing troops, like it's literally unheard of in
modern warfare. You know, after World War Two, they're losing troops thousands a week. It's just they just generally don't give a damn about their people.
It's kind of incredible, right, like right, how Russian like the population puts up with it because like it's unbelievable how insulated and protected I guess that regime is. Because if you've lost one hundred and fifty two hundred thousand guys plus like another double that or more in casualties hurt, like guys who are hurt. I don't understand how a
regime like that could stay in power. It's fucking insane to think in this modern day because like, yeah, right, they have control over the internet and the information, but at the same time people are getting information too, right, Like, at some point you're gonna notice, Shit, we've lost one hundred and fifty thousand, two hundred thousand guys.
Guys are coming back, uncles, they're not coming back. You don't need to be posted on Twitter, You're you're seeing it. So and all the people that, you know, one of the big issues in Russia is all the people they could do a different, can make Russia difference, that are competent, that are want to see you know, freedoms and free economies and stuff, they leave right because they'll be crust immediately. Yeah, So it's a vicious cycle where the people who are
would most advanced the country leaving come of the United States. Yeah, you're right, and it leaves only the people that profit of the regime staying in place, you know, the oligarchs.
Yeah.
Man, it's just incredible, Like in this day and age is going on between two year, Like you know, in Europe there's a fucking human civil hand who are going on? What do you think happens next in terms of like talks and stuff like that. Give me a little bit of speculation.
So I think I think obviously the Coalition of the Willing they calls for main actually it's all Europe, right, But those are the ones that are most engaged, you know, bout Karl, every everybody that's I already referenced. I think they're ready to do this. They don't need, you know, Mick mull Ry from Montana to tell them, like it's.
Time to move out.
You got to start secondary sanctions, you got to start freezing assets. I think that's the next time discussion. I think we'll hear that soon. If not, then I would be uh surprised.
Do you think.
The reason why this is being held up? Do you believe it's got something to do with the Trump administration and like Europe trying to play it like I don't, for lack of a better word, like hand holding a little bit to be like we have to do this, we should do this, because like you said earlier, you know, the Trump administration compared to the body administration came in with a little bit different thought process, and when it comes to in terms of like Ushia and stuff like that,
and who invaded who, and like whose faultness is, do you think that like that might be a little bit of why there's some drag to this and it's not really happening as fast as we'd like it to happen.
Yeah, I think there was that caused the drag where people were I mean, we saw some of the stuff that I just was really shocking, you know, repeating Russian Yeah, very discredited talking points for example, this idea that we were trusting Russia. It's not the first administration who is wrongfully came to the conclusion of trusting Putin. And we can all remember the whole President Bush not.
The ranch thing.
Well, you know, I looked into his eyes and all that stuff. I mean, the guy's a KGB spies, right, I mean, he knows how to make you.
I think that was at his ranch in Texas through.
And then you know Secretary Clinton with the giant reset button and all that stuff. I mean, I think I think, you know, there's plenty of things to point out in the past that we're very misplaced when it comes to
trusting Russia. But I think we're in a spot right now where the administration right understands just who needs to be trusted and who needs not to be trusted, and that you can't just convince President Putin to do anything that he doesn't want to without force, you just can't, or some kind of coersion, right, it doesn't have to be a military force, but it can be economic pressure sections and such that has to That has to be what leads or we're going to be stuck in this.
Pure but it's not going to advance. Yeah, it's not good.
They're just going to keep making incremental advances and eventually the rest of Europe as Europe will have to make a stand and they might do it and keep it yeah and say, okay, so now you're attacking French, German, Polish and Great Britain's forces. So how you're fighting all of us? And then we'll have to decide, you know, as an Article five situation, right right, if they start attacking countries in Europe, not just in Ukraine, then it definitely would.
Be well that there's like, no, there's no interpretation for that. I wonder what would happen if like there was a coalition of like UK, France, Poland and you know the rest of Europe that sent like a division into Keith.
What would happen? Like, how would Putin react to that?
How he do standard? Like we're you know, we're going to use nuclear websits. But he's done that before. Yeah, he's done it so many times. I mean, not that we're not concerned about that, of course. I mean, does he want to start a nuclear war with with Thenato?
No, he knows he's cooked at that point.
I means essentially, it's like having a you know, guns to each other's head, right, and no matter who pulls the trigger first, the other one's gonna gonna go off.
Yeah, everyone's get Yeah, everyone's gonna die. Right.
So the reason why we have this nuclear triad is you know see air and land based nuclear weapons, is because we're going to ensure that our weapons are expended and in TAE some of the nuclear war, even if they strike first, like even if they try to take out they don't know where our subs are. They basically don't know where a craft are And the same can
be said about Russia. At least they do a lot to try to and in the sub based nuclear weapons are the ones that are most secure, just so everybody knows. They simply can't keep track them. Yeah, great, right, so how do you take it out? You don't, so it just comes at you from a direction you don't expected. Yeah, but I think everybody realizes and you can google it as it's not classified. It's just even a limited nuclear
war ends up in catastrophic consequences world. So yeah, a strategic level nuclear.
War, forget it. It's one hundreds of millions of people that.
Yeah, it could be extinction, it could be an extinction level.
Yeah, nobody wants that, not even fucking Putin right, because he knows he's got his name.
There's an his name is on one of them. Like they're gonna first thing is.
Drop it wherever he hangs his hat, right, which we definitely know where it's not probably not the Kremlin, but we know exactly where he sleeps every night, probably and I hope.
So, yeah, I should be a prime.
If they don't, i'd be I'd be a little bit upset with where my money's going for tax dollars for the CIA, and then say, d I a whoever? Yeah, yeah, like that should be priority number one. It's interesting too. I know this is like a little bit more of a broad talk, but like China obviously aligned with Russia, not totally but pretty much, I'm sure covertly.
You know, they were there at the victory parade.
In Moscow and stuff like that, which Putin probably loved because he probably was like, Okay, they're not going to blow me up because Jijiping is next to me, so.
I think I'm safe. Right, they're not.
But like China tries to be this like developed, you know, like how we are, right, they put their soft power out there, they spend money in developing places, or they help allies, but when things go down, they don't really take a stand.
On anything.
They kind of just like roll with the punches and keep like doing it covertly, they don't really take a stand on anything, if you know, you know what I'm saying. Compared to the United States anyway, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, I mean there is a strategic alliance between Russia and China, you know there can't remember the name they use, but it's kind of over the top language for their you know, forever friends of highest order and all this. But there's always been a bit of us off, and we've probably exploit that. They used to be called the Sino Soviet split Bler and co. Right, it never really materialized in a way that was what we wanted,
and it still hasn't and it probably won't. And now we're at a in a trade war with China and the rest of the world, so there's even less of a reason for China to separate from Russia, right, Right, So maybe we could use some kind of new agreement as a way to leverage that. That's a possibility, but
certainly right now, I know it's not their intent. Obviously the intent is the lower tariffs and get into that economists, but it is pushing China probably more toward Russia because they viewed they view probably whether it's trade or kinetic it wars a war, it's some they're looking at, you know, potentially reconfiguring who they sell to, right, trying to get new alliances to traditional non traditional partners or China like Japan, right, yeah,
South Korea, which is insane. Yeah, it's like madness to think about that.
Like they're kind of like you know, playing footsi a little bit because of what's going on with the tariffs.
And stuff like that, because there's tariffs on everybody.
And frankly, I can't really you can't really blame them, you know, because at the end of the day, they want to make sure that they're citizens, are you know, things aren't super expensive, and their economies keep growing or.
Don't completely crash. I mean you kind of get it.
Also, I have a prediction in the next twenty years everyone remember, like Russia used to was the biggest, like one of the biggest and after the United States exporter of like arms. Uh, and that's like crash because they needed to consolidate for Ukraine. China is going to become number two for if they're not number two already, and they're going to start it's applying Russia with fighters, fighters, you name it, all kinds of like arms and stuff
like that. Because sure, the Chinese industrial defense industrial base is like.
Scary.
How they have over a billion people cheap labor and they steal our technology so they don't even put in the requisite funds to develop the technology, right we do. They steal it and then they come up with a cheap way to manufacture.
Yeah, it's scary. I mean, just their shipbuilding capacity is unreal. Yes, it's we're like squirting out like two battleships or whatever. Destroyer is like of a year, they could bang out, like I think it's I think the last thing I read was about seven times that. Yeah, that's it's scary to think anyway, all right, segueing hopefully putin just you know croaks right, like we just hear a news story tomorrow that is he had a stroke and he died.
People like that.
Yeah, yeah, they lived to like one hundred right, all right, Uh, segueing now to Trump's trip to the Middle East. Busy last week for him. Uh was in Saudi Arabia, was in Cutter, was in UAE, I believe too. There was
talk about him going to Israel. He didn't up going to Israel, so there was some stories about like Israel, Uh, United States kind of split, which you know, I don't believe that ever will be the case, but anyway, there was you know, it was kind of he and Trump got his new cool, four hundred million dollar jumbo jet, which is nice.
I guess, Mick, what are your what are your thoughts on that? Man?
There's a lot of talk about there. Yeah, So I mean there is I agree, there's the US in Israel will not split, you know, our alliance partnership. But there's definitely something going on between the administration and our Prime Minister nan Yah because the US is unilatterally negotiated to get last US hostage out Don Alexander, which is great. Israel didn't like it because we've basically partitioned the negotiations. That might be the end because there's no other Americans
left alive. There is romance that needs to be recovered. They unilaterally, bilaterally came up with the seasfire with the hoo Thies that didn't include attacking Israel. They apparently, according to reporting, presented a nuclear agreement to Iran that was not coordinated with Israel, and they left the Israel off the trip. So, I mean, those are data points that I think suggest that there is a change and a strained relationship between the States in Israel. I mean, I
don't even think israelis would could sugarcoat that. Right in my Israeli friends aren't sugarcoating that, I can tell you. So I don't think it's going to rupture anything like that, but it is important to point out and that like as the war procede in Gaza. There seems to be more pressure by the United States than there has been
during this administration to bring it to an end. But it looks like Prime Minister Nan Yahoo under this operation uh Gideon, Yeah, Yeah, is going to substantially escalate the conflict. So there's a difference obviously there. And there's a difference when it comes to the long term negotiation to get to another JCPOA two point zero that it doesn't look like it will meet the standard for the Israelis because
it's they have a pretty extreme standard on that. So but that doesn't I think Trump administration is still going to move forward. So there's there's something there, I would say. The other part, of course, I mean this was a primarily an economic based trip, which right, you know, that's not a bad thing, that's a good thing. They've got six hundred billion dollars worth of pledged investment by the Saudi or the Saudi's in US technology and energy sector
and defense sector. Huge like one one hundred and forty three billion in you know, weapons sales.
Boeing I think too Boweing, like ninety billion something something astronomical, two hundred planes or something I don't. Yeah, I think it was like ninety something billion, ninety six billion.
Right, and then uh, and then obviously the aircraft, which I mean ethical and legal standards. I think we need to rethink having ethical laws for everybody. It's not focusing on than a drum on what one can and canning. Except but from the security side, I mean they're gonna have to re They pull this thing all the way down to the to the river cost a billion dollars, right, because the way we build I don't think you should
look at Air Force one as an aircraft. You should look at it as the aerial command post for the commander in chief of the most powerful military an intelligence service in the world.
Right.
So you know, we already talked about our scenario where there's a nuclear weapon. They're gonna put the president up in an Air Force one to get him to a secluded location, right, so he has to be So it has all sorts of things that no other aircraft had. Commercial aircraft like that, the seven forty seven eight, I think, whatever. Yeah, So it has air little reviewing like like a military aircraft. They can pull up to a tanker, you know, RC one and refuel.
It has.
Fuel tanks in the plane. It has a surgic suite with all the mixed gas uh and all that. It has a the protective measures that you've used. Yeah, some of them are classified. I don't know, but we know the obvious ones like flares and such. Right. And it has a unpenetrable communications suite, right, so you can hide you know, and you know that Mic, you gave me to do these podcasts. You can hide all kinds of things in there. Now, think about how much is in
the wiring of a seven forty. Yeah, Like I don't even know. It's to a technical technology inflection expert, but I don't even think you can determine whether there's something in there. Yeah, with all wires, panels and circuits and such that are in a you know, a seven seven. So I mean maybe they could, I don't know. You can't even use it for anybody that's in a situation like that. Would that would rate craft?
Right?
I'm not a president, but like the secretary of State.
Yeah, Defense, anybody, defense, sky director, why would they want to ride in that plan? I know it's nice and there's like gold stuff and like a cool bathroom, but like it's like we can't even speak on this without thinking maybe they're fucking listening.
Right, So I don't even know what we'd use it for. So maybe I don't know. But it's a security issue, and obviously it's a controversial one for the ethical and legal.
Yeah, all right, So talking about the other thing, I think.
The last stop huge investment in us AI by a company called I think it's an Amarati deal. So, and they're going to be the like one of the biggest hubs in the world for AI databases. So this, I mean, I don't focus a lot on the economics because I don't I don't know it, but it is hugely important and defense is essentially just part of it if you
think about it. I mean, ultimately it's the economics that rules today for most decisions of a nation state, and defense is basically there to protect the citizens, of course, but also its ability to fully conduct trade and advance in society and all that. It's it's in support. So I think it was successful, is my point. And I think, you know, President Trump brought a lot home for the American people when it comes to investments.
Yeah, on the other side of the golf or whatever, the straight the Iran nuclear deal. You mentioned it a little bit right now, and I was talking to Mark Pola Moroppolois on the last episode. It was a bit of Iran hawk which I'm sure you are more on that side as well. I mean, we have to assume that we're not going to at the perfect deal where like they completely don't enrich any uranium and we at something.
There has to be some kind of plan where it's like, you know, some kind of like arbitrary line where like we're gonna take this up to this and we're going to make a deal. It sounds like they're more more open to making a deal in terms of like wake cough and the Trump administration as a whole. I know the old school gop Iran hawks are freaking out, yes, and you know Israel's definitely pouring some lighter fluid on
that one too for them. But man, I mean a deal to not have a nuclear weapon and to be the monitoring, to be like real stringent and actually do it. I think it's a good thing.
Man.
I don't think we should bomb Iran unless we know they're either very close to making to developing a nuclear weapon and making it, you know, weaponizing it, or you know, just to like I want to. The only time I would be like, hey, let's bomb them is if like we're on the brink, because like we've said, and we've seen that even bombing them with our stuff will bring it back three to six months. It's not going to completely, you know, derail their entire program. I don't know what
the endgame is. This is really what I'm saying, besides making a deal.
So yeah, and I think ultimately a diplomatic path board is almost always the best Pathboward right. I mean, the people that you know talk about military action and go into war and all that stuff are generally people that never took part in military action went to war because it's not the answer to everything. You don't can't just say pull the trigger and then they just don't have
a nuclear weapons. It's not the way it goes. And there's all sorts of potential consequences, like a large scale regional war, like the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz with c minds, which Iran can definitely do, the attacking of our bases in the region vi our. I'm not against a military option as kind of the last option, but we really ought to exhaust all diplomatic efforts before we do that, because it's not an.
Answer to all.
It could be an answer and part of the issue or solution, so to speak, but it's not what I think some people think, which is like we'll just pull the trigger, they'll go away and they won't have a bomb for now, an attorney. So the big issues with the negotiations, one can Iran a rich at all enrich uranium at all their stance, they want to be able to enrich up to the rate needed for nuclear power,
civilian nuclear non weapon power. The United States has already said that we do not, Secretary Rubio, and I think that was magnified by a resolution of the House and said that we don't.
Want them to.
Be able to enrich any uranium because in the event they have all this capacity and then they decide to race toward it, they would be able to do it.
If they don't have the capacity, then they have to rely on an outside source, which I think other countries, for example, like the UAE, I think Saudi has already agreed to like they could get enriched uranium for a country that's already doing it right right, and so so could a run and obviously they have an alliance with Russia, so they could get up to that level so they can use it for civilian military energy, not military civilian
energy resources. That's one of the sticking points. The second sticket point that's always been an issue for the United States is ballistic missile programs and support the proxy forces by iron particularly the IRGC cood So Force, so they support AMAS has able uh who. It seems like the especially on the proxy forces, runs hardline. They're going to keep their alliances. So we're going to have to decide
what that's a game change. It was one of the reasons why we pulled out of the JCPOA in twenty eighteen, So that's going to be controversial if we do not include it. But I don't think it will be included from the Rinian's perspective. And maybe we just make sure that we just keep supporting our partner like Israel and crushing them. Yeah right, Israel is crushed as well, has seriously crushed a moss and you know, yes there's still woth these but there's always going to be hoothis around
the mountains trying to shoot in US. In Israel. The issue of ballistic missiles. It really comes down to a ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warring, So maybe we should focus on that, right the sunset provisions in the past. One of the criticisms of the twenty fifteen jcpoway is that at sunset it like it just ended and then Iran could go back to doing what wanted. So the US is going to want this to be permanent, no nicular.
Way and men it we're no nuclear Yeah, right.
I think that's one area that we could improve on the twenty fifteen Yeah, because you know, politically they want to improve or they're going to be asked why they hell did you get out of in twenty eighteen? Then if you just basically went back to two thousand and fifty.
I don't think they give a shit. Trump specifically, I don't think cares. So I think it might be the same exact agreement. He's going to tiet it as a victory and better than Obama.
Well he probably will. He probably won't tell it.
But there's there's some places where they could improve.
Sure.
Yeah, well there's a lot of places where they can. But that's one like it doesn't sunset for Yeah, it's permit and then you know there's other provisions. They're going to want the sanctions to come out immediately. We're going to want to stagger them because we're going to want
to prove that they're not. We want proof. So the you know, IAEA needs to be have full access not just to the sites we know than a Toons, the Ford Ows, the other places that we know, but they're going to have to go around and look for places that we don't know because obviously if they have some kind of covert site that's doing this, ye have to peachical purpose of the agreement. So there needs to be proof,
and then the sanctions new need to come out. And if you think about it, the further that Aron gets away from being the most one of the most sanctioned countries on Earth and their economy develops and gets more incorporated and integrated into the world economy, the less they're going to want to turn around to go in the
other direction. Right right, because we already talked about ultimately economics rules and you know, sometimes not so much for the regimes that don't need it like a democracy does, but I think even they will see less pressure on their regime for sure, it'd be great if the regime just went away and the Iranian people overthrew it, but
that's up to the Iranian people. But ultimately there'll be less pressure on the Iranian regime I think if the people feel like their economy is going in the right direction and their standard deliverance. So there's there's a reason for both sides to want to do this, and I think we should be rooting for diplomacy. And yes, I mean, I to myself pretty hawkish on Iran, and there'll be people that just won't accept anything, whatever the agreement, but those people generally aren't part of.
The solution there. They're just you know, magnifier, right, yeah, right on, Yeah, I mean.
They I mean they could kind of like the regime, I don't know, and Aaron probably could see what's going on in Syria as like an example of like you can maybe be accepted into the international community, you know, relatively, because like we just let those sanctions we opened kimono, the sanctions on Syria that we've had for forty years during this past you know trip.
Yeah, which you know, I get it, I get it. I understand why they're doing that.
And you know, maybe a little bit of like, uh development and you know, economic growth will help like make people a little bit more and not as like you know, homicidal.
Against us.
But I get like it's such a complicated thing, Like I really would love especially Syria, because Syria, over the last fifteen years, it is a shmortgage board of different alliances. You know, who's cool with who, who's not cool with who, But we're cool with them now for a little bit, and we'll see how that goes. Somebody can write an incredible book about what goes on in Syria because like, yeah, obviously Bricharlotte's side.
Is a big part of it, but it's like so much more.
So.
And I don't know how I feel about this guy who was in the al Qaida, Yeah he started, it's now the is now the president, the indefinite president. Until we see the difference and we see something happen being accepted into the you know, I don't know how I feel about MBS and him given each other pounds like they're the best of friends, you know, because we all know.
And you don't have to say anything about Sadi's role in nine to eleven, right, we don't have to say anything or they're on the periphery at least, So I don't know how I feel about that.
It's it's like mixed feelings, right, because I live in New York.
I remember the data towers came down, right like, so it's very interesting. But at the same time, I do understand that you know, you have enemies and at some point you need that. You know, you make peace and you make the deals and you you negotiate with your enemies at some point, right, So.
So yeah, you're right, Syria's extraordinarily complicated. I would say from this Syria perspective that it is trending now in the right direction, and you know that's starting from a very deep hole.
Yeah.
Yeah, It's been completely torn apart at war, hundreds of thousands killed, fled, massive immigration issue Europe. I think the book is still out on achamedel Shara or Gilaunie, depending on your perspective. He seems to be able to impress people that he meets worldwide. Obviously an intelligence person, intelligent person.
He you know, he's he's staying the right things. He has doing a lot of the right things, and Syria needs that right now to go to the next phase and the idea of sanctions removal I do think was fair because they were imposed because of the Asad regime who was dominated by Russia and Iran and brutalized the civilian population. So the Caesar's anctions, for example, so they Syria cannot and I think President Trump said this, they cannot advance without with these sanctions on there.
Absolutely I agree. Yeah, so the.
Syrian people deserve that. Al shara I would look at it more as a as a need for the Syrian people, right.
And then we gave him a list.
The Trump administration gave him a list I think the Biden administration too, but of what they expected to see and now we expect to see it. And part of that is leading as a leader for a comprehensive Syria, you know, all of it. So that's a positive, and
there needs to be elections, right Ultimately Syrians. He decided who's going to be the leader, not just the person with the strongest military faction, and maybe maybe he'll do so good that they'll elect him and then he's an elected leader and that's it.
Right, So.
That's that's certainly a possibility, but it's going to come down to his individual actions and keeping his word other positives PKK. You know, the US Designated Kurdish Terrorist Organization is essentially disbanded. Right, So there's a lot of things trending in the right direction in Syria, again starting from a very deep hole that I think the world should be happy with.
Right.
Yeah, it's definitely better than a right yeah. Yeah, a low standard for sure. Yeah yeah, a low standard. But that doesn't mean that.
I mean, Seria could be a bustling, burgeoning place like it once was in the past, not so just in past. So I think it's a good thing. And but I think, you know, trust but verify this kind of thing when it comes to you. He'll show president.
Yeah, we'll see what happens. I mean, listen, honestly, I'm kind of okay if he keeps a lid in Syria and like he helps us with ISIS and doesn't fuck with the SDF that much, which I'm assuming we'll probably need.
A new name. Yeah.
The other issue, that's another issue of tension between the US and Israel. Israel didn't want us to remain protection and didn't want the president an Well.
It's really is operating in Syria pretty heavily that we don't really talk about because there's just so much happening. Kind of gets swept under the rug a little bit because it's just, I mean, how many fronts can he fucking have, I guess, but Israel's trying to find out, uh So I would love to get into that too. I'm gonna have to. I'm gonna get Charles Lister on and see what the story is with like why are they hitting you know, areas in Syria and stuff like that.
They are having talks too, just you know the I guess secret talks. There were secret talks between Israel and all Shara's uh government and stuff like that to try and figure it out.
Did uh.
Uh say that he would be open to like joining the Abraham Accords and stuff like that and opening up stuff. So he's definitely saying the right things. And I think he needs to because like he wants to be a statesman, right, he wants to He doesn't want to know.
He knows how to play to his audience for sure. The negative he's talking to President Trump was one of the bigger accomplishments of his first term was Abraham Accords, right, Right, So I think there is a possibility they could, but it's really going to take Saudi Arabia, I think moving first, right, and I don't think Saudi will move until there's a permanent UH ceasefire and gossip and some movement on the
Aliston in the front, you know too state solution. We're far from that, but I do think that's certainly a ceasefire and Gaza is going to be required for Saudi's really start talking about the Abraham Accords.
But it can happen.
There's there's It definitely can happen, and yeah, you gotta you gotta go in with that. Which will you know? Once if this all happened, it would it would stabilize the Middle East, and that is a very good thing for the Middle East and for the United States.
I hope it does happen, man, Jesus anything else? Oh shut.
Yeah, I watched before we started the podcast, I was asking you about this restaurant that I saw a movie last night, me and my wife did called did I texted to you?
Known as known as is the name of the movie right on his foot, Yes, And the restaurant that it's based on is called Anoteca Maria.
Yeah.
So the concept of the movie and It's got Vin Fan is always Awesome is a true story about a guy who started a restaurant, you know, midlife, named it Honor for his mother, and then used all grandmothers, which known as I think it's Italian for grandmother, right, no, no, no, yeah, yeah, you guys call yours yah yah right, Greek day. Yeah,
but Nona's is an Italian for grandmother. He just brought grandmothers and the cook They're like, that's cool, famous their favorite dishes, right, So it was all grandma's cooking, which is exactly the kind of food.
Out one, which is hilarious.
See, because I'm a cynical maniac, I just picture them like sweatshop labor just have like these eight year old grandmothers in the back fucking making sauce, sweating.
No, I think I think that restaurants.
Yeah, obviously they're not going to pick that. No, of course, you know at the end of the movie.
Although I could probably live forever on Italian grandmother's cooking, but they also have other grandma's, right, probably Greeks.
And you know Lebanese come in and oh that's sick. That is cool. Yeah, there's I didn't know that. I thought it was just Italian. No, that's cool.
I think it's primary in the Italian At the end of you know, when they do the credits at the end, they talk about you know, oh that is cool and other I mean that is I mean, how could you not like that movie?
Right?
No, So next time we go to New York.
There, all right, we'll go, We'll go to us. I'm gonna you're gonna make me go to Staten Island. That's right.
I didn't know that was such a big deal.
It's not a big deal. It's not a big deal. But we like in Brooklyn, we like to make fun of Stanton Island. We like to make fun of all the other boroughs because there's a reason it's called King's County. So just everybody remember that. It's because we're number one after Okay, that's right, I tell everybody for possible, every place, any kind of arbitrary thing. Yeah, there's gonna be a rivalry of some sort. But I mean everyone's coming together
because the Knicks are playing well, because I can't. I am from Brooklyn, but I'm not a Brooklyn Nets fan. They're from Jersey. Yeah, they just they're just uh, they're just visiting.
All right, so we'll be able to get you out of Brooklyn and.
Absolutely I get I'll cross that bridge, I'll pay the toll to tolls on me. Don't worry about it. Guys, don't forget. Check out the movie, check out the place. If you're in a Stanton Island or in the area. It's that that first one's tough. Uhecha Maria on stant Island. Don't forget to check out Mick Lobo fog Bow. So all the mixed publications and links will be in the description. You can check it out there. All the other guys, every ny and all information about the show and the
guys links are in the description. Do us a favor, like and subscribe. If you're listening to us even on audio, you could rated five stars and subscribe there as well.
It helps.
Any kind of engagement helps, and the best way to support the show Patreon dot com slash Teamhouse. You get both the Teamhouse and as on geopolitics, absolutely add free, get early access to it, both video and audio, and now you help support the show.
So that's not that we didn't sell it enough already. But Anoteca means in Italian means wine library.
Okay, interesting really fuck all right? No, that's yeah, that's a tough name. That's a tough name, but I like it. Nonahs is a better name, let's be honest. But there's a lot of Nona's like restaurants and pizzerias that are.
Called Nona's, right.
Yeah, And I'll shout out my my old my family's restaurant in Brooklyn. I've lead Greek kitchen. All of our recipes are from grandmother's too. Well, my family does.
Yeah. Yeah, it's on the street in Brooklyn. Yeah, it's legit, it's legit. Good.
We don't make our grandmother's work like these Italians, though, but we use their recipes. Check out the places that I'm just walking around, buddy, all right, maybe, well we got two places to visit.
Yeah, no, we're gonna eat good guys. It's Jack.
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