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Okay, hello everyone, Welcome to a live episode of Iizon for an extraordinary incident, Israel's attack on Iran. We don't have Chason with us today, but he will be back with us in a couple of days, so we've only
got a limited amount of time. I am going to do kind of a stream of consciousness talk about what we do know has happened, and hopefully put to rest some rather scarlets rumors that have started flowing around in the media this morning especially those involving speculation about US involvement, which which are preturreed concerning anyway, I mean the reports are concerning. So here's what we know. The attack took place in three waves, and the initial wave unknown number
of aircraft. By the way, there were about one hundred aircraft involved total in the attacks, a mix of F thirty, fives, F fifteen, Charlie Delta, no confirmation of F sixteen's but some of the some of those planes were also refuelers, and that's important. I'm going to get back to that. And I do want to say right off the bat, because in Twitterland there's there's there's some rather hysterical speculation that the US provide refuelers for this attack, and I
would say there's absolutely no indication that that happened. In fact, everything points to the fact that the US was not involved in that sense. Uh And in any case, the Israelis didn't need US help for their refueling efforts. And I'll get into that little bit. So three waves, the first wave went after targets in Syria. And get this, the in Iraq all right, probably not yeah, probably not with Iraqi permission, but a radar site in Babylon was
was hit. It's kind of ironic we're dealing with biblical names. Even as far feel as iraq uh and and in Syria. They went after both anti air defense sites and radar sites. Okay, that was in the first wave. Now the second wave went all the way to Iran, which, by the way, I want to remind everyone is over one thousand miles away,
which is important when we start talking about refueling. Although the thirty five Israel has some I think thirty nine F thirty fives right now, that's important to know too because some of the newspaper report, a lot of media reports say there are one hundred F thirty five is involved, which would have been indeed extraordinary. But in any case, so the F thirty five has arranged about thirteen hundred miles.
But you know, these reallys us have been saying publicly that they can launch an attack on Iran without refueling their thirty fives. Neither here nor that they had the ability to do so, and are doubtedly all F thirty fives were involved, but there are also drones too. Now, the first way, the second wave, this is the first
one that into Iran. The second wave just like we predicted here on this channel, when after anti air defense systems, specifically S thirty five and S four hundred, the Israelis are reporting that they have removed from the play from the chessboard every single S three hundred and S four hundred that the Uranians had, and the Uranians just had
a plus up from a Russia. And as far as that is, yeah, that is significant, right, So, you know, regardless of subsequent outcomes, regardless of what happens after this, the fact that Israel specifically denuded Iran's ability to defend itself, not just for this particular raid, but for some time until Russia can, you know, can backfill these systems. That is significant, right, since a message and it means and you know, it's quite smart. It means that Iran is
going to be quite cautious about how it responds. Now. The third wave went after about twenty sites, okay, and these range from there were some sites around Taranto, the Revolutionary Guards barracks, and I do want to say this, okay, the Israeli sent a warning to Inran because they wanted
to minimize uh the you know, to casualties. And they they basically said They didn't list the targets, but they said we're going after these sorts of targets, and they emphasized the fact we are going to be hit hitting the Revolutionary Guards barracks, and there was one in particular they hit outside Tehran, but they did warn the uraniance. That's why you know there are only two people killed. Unfortunate for those two, but it could have been far worse.
And but they also went after missile. They went they went after the a site that manufactures industrial components, components for these for these missiles and drones. The in h it's called the Asham Industrial Parks. So you'll look on Twitter, you'll see these great explosions taking place in this industrial part. Well, they are after going after factories that are providing components.
I think it's specifically for drones. Now in media reports it's saying that they they destroyed the factories that create you know, the shy haired drones for that have been exported to Russia. That's neither here nor there, because Russia's actually building its own Shahi drones in Russia. But but you know, you get the idea that they're going after
that capability to manufacture more drones and missiles. Now, the US, obviously concerned about escalation, has jumped in and said, you know, the attack was proportioned with the US was heavily involved in sheapiness attack to ensure that it was proportionate. And uh and and there's a lot of stuff in the news about all the forces that the US has rushed through the area. Well, yes, there were plus absolutely on the aviation side, but I think that's more of a
proportionate move. And I want to emphasize here that the United States was not involved in the strike. Okay, And you can say, how do you know, Andy, just call it informed speculation. I don't know, all right, but it's important, I think to get that out here. Okay, So let's go back to you know what what exactly. We'll talk about the ramifications, but let's talk about kind of a
little bit more about the breakdown of the of the strike. So, you know, the logistics challenges have been discussed quite a bit in the media, and there's a lot of uninformed speculation the the the Israelis actually practiced this in broad
daylight back in August. Okay, I don't know, you know, it wasn't really picked up in the papers, but you could see this from an israel I mean, they launched this massive I don't know if there's one hundred aircraft, but it was a it was a sad phalanx at aircraft that took off from various bases in Israel and sway out over the over the Mediterranean and again broad daylight.
I think you can find photographs and they even practice refueling using By the way, the Israelis have some very capable refueling capability and it's not you know when when people talk about the limitations on Israeli strikes ranges everything. The Israelis have been working on this problem the last decade and they've got, you know, aside from our own
K forty six, you know, the Pegasus refuelers. They have their own, which is a kind of a refurbished seven o seven and in fact they've proven using these the way they operate the boom at night using so it's a it's a remote visual system. I wish we had Alex hollings on here, but his what I'm saying, the Israelis arguably are as capable, probably more capable than the United States when it comes to refueling because we have all these problems with the Pegasus that the Israelis seem
to have mined out. They've been practicing this for a long time, so they did not need us help, That's what I'm trying to say. They really didn't. And that's that's an important point too, because when we talk about Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities, we are you know, we used to say that that the Israelis couldn't do it because they didn't have sufficient penetrating ordinance, sufficient quantity to
go after the sites. Well that they may or may not be true, but they suddenly do have deep penetrating bombs. And the second thing we say is they need us help for refueling. That is no longer true. Okay. You know, as I mentioned, they reported right off the bat that they they destroyed specifically, you know, all the radars for the S four hundred and ES three hundred. They should
have been more specific, not the interceptors. That would have been an impossible task, but the radars are all important and they're harder to replace. So everything now kind of rest on the response, right, and all indications are you know, the Uranians are kind of playing this down. They're saying that they didn't suffer any significant damage. They did release a reporting of two military casualties to revolutory guard members
who were killed. Two of the sites that the Israelis went after were in the western part of western part of the country, and that is significant because they're looking, you know, again, the Israelis are looking at Iran's ability to react, and so by taking out the missile systems closest to and radars closest to Israel, that was kind of their priority targets. And that's why you see all these attacks in the west part of the country and areas that seem to be quite remote the they used.
Oh and they also I'm trying to remember the name of the base, the partch In Military Base was hit almost entirely by drones. Okay, there's no no indication yet of types of drones, but it's kind of interesting that these drones. We knew they had the range because it you know, the obviously they had the range. But but the point is drone attacks are normally at that range quite ineffective because as we saw back in April, you can see them coming and you can track them. But
the bye by masking this within a strike package. The Israelis were able to carry this off without you know, drones being intercepted. That takes some planning, all right, on timing and everything else. So again this was meticulously planned. What do we watch for now, Well, by all accounts, life back in Tehran is back to normal. It's you know, late Sunday afternoon there in Twitter feeds you can see people just strolling around. There's no sign of damage within
Tehran itself. And I think, you know, everyone's waiting to see the next statement from Supreme Lea the hour community because that's going to be critical. And I don't know if he's spoken yet. If not, he's going to be speak probably soon. And and if he claims that Israel's trying to fall to war with you know, a war between Iran and the US and between Iran and Israel, then that's going to be a strong kind of de
escalatory indicator. Okay. But but if he focuses on you know, this is what comine watchers say, If he focus is on expressing readiness for war, committing to retaliation, well then now we need to worry. I would say, absolutely, it's
going to be the former. Okay, he's going to come out and vilify Israel, of course, and the United States are backing it up, and and then he'll talk about the dangers of a regional war on Iran has been anxious to avoid that, and I think that's those you know, he words in his mouth, which we're thinking, but those are kind of the de escalatory themes that we're expecting to hear. That's why I have thing what questions you had the.
We got a good question actually in the chat that I was thinking about to from Brian Thomas Andy, what's the downside of going after the nuclear Their nuclear sites won't hurt the economy the way oil strikes would or is there a question if they can actually reach those targets that far underground.
Yeah, I think that's exactly right, that last part. It's a question of whether they whether they can and you know, again, I mean this is just speculation, but we know, like the good guys know that since Gars are kicked off, the Ranians have been actually since before then, and in the last eighteen months or so, the Uranians have been squirreling away centrifuges in an area of the Tanse that is that is you know, obviously we believe to be a weapons in Richmond site, but it's much deeper than
previous sites. I don't know more than that, so what that you know, But discovering that means that all the previous calculations, if there were such calculations about striking those sites, are now up in the air. So we don't you know that that's the real that's the real risk. It's not oh, we're worried that Iran will do something if we do destroy its nuclear capability. I think we're just questioning whether we and I say we collectively have the
ability to do that. And if we don't, then then certainly the Urania the Israelis don't, but I will, you know, I aside from aside from the nuclear threat, the Israelis were considerably worried about, right, the ballistic missiles. So the Iranians have like nine types of blistic missile that canal ranges round and I won't go into I currently remember the name.
Yeah, no you're not alex Islings. Don't do it to yourself.
Yeah, but but I mean, but they you know, these missiles range everything from you know to twenty five hundred kilometers, which is about fifteen hundred miles all right down to around nine hundred, so they can you know, the longer arrange ones can certainly slowly reaches from and they're moving
at hallacious pace. I think it's the sedgy flies at like seventeen thousand columbate ten thousand, ten thousand miles an hour, right, you know, so it's not some attack, A mass attack by ballistic missiles like that would be would be very hard to defend against. And then you've got the whole Shaha series of ballistic missiles too, you know, so significant capability, and I think that's what the Israelis were worried about.
That's why that you hit see them hitting these sites in the western part of the country.
So you really think they decimated their entire like most of their SAM sites, like their S three hundred.
Four hundred cents, the radars, the radars, I'm sorry, I.
Think it's a legitimate claim when they say they have they have blinded the the Iranians by taking out of uniform intensive purposes or their S three hundred four hundred on. Well, and you know, again, the Israelis have been planning this for a long time.
So I remember you did mention a few weeks back, like the Israelis have like really pivoted their military into like their air force and like being able to carry out longer range attacks.
When you talk about the Israeli air force strike capability, it is all very much adversary based, and there's one adversary it's based on primarily, and that is going after Iran, not just nuclear sites. But that's you know, that's the
main concern. But also these missiles that have been talking about the problem is that for the last few years, Roan's been developing underground missile depots with both transport and firing systems, and back in twenty twenty, I can't remember the type of missile, but they did fire the first ballistic missile from a subterranean site, and that is a concern.
One thing I have a question about because like in most of the reporting where it said like uh, Israel communicated where I ran Friday ahead of the strike just before warning I ran not to respond, Like that was like really in every single like reporting, was it warning I ran not to respond?
Was it that? Or was it like.
We're warning you that were coming and this is a proportional thing. We're not going to like completely wreck you.
Yeah, it's all part of the messaging. D Yeah, you know what I mean. And remember when I made these comments, they're agnostic on there, but agnostic about sympathies. But I'm just saying that it was very clever messaging. So you know,
number one was messaging, hey, here it comes. This is the strike both for global whence send the Ranians, We're not going crazy, so you better not go crazy and return basically once yeah message and then very unusual to reach out to ran itself and say we're going off to these things. And that was that was with one purpose, and that was to reduce casualties because there is an unspoken agreement that that is part of this you know, retaliation back and forth, right right, you know, not not
to kill a lot of people. It's I don't want to be a cynic, but you know, it's fine to kill a lot of people when Lebanon or Gaza, but not if they are part of a sovereign country that might strike back. Is kind of a theory behind it.
Do we see more proxy stuff popping off rather than like another uh, ballistic missler drone attack on Israel?
Well, I would say so, but you know, hisbola, which is Iran's main method of striking back his boa, is on the ropes. Look, I you know, I'm not being polyannerish about this. I just you know, I think we're at a time out stage here. I think, you know, as I've said, we talked about his bolla. No one on the Hoboalo Aranian side. It's once Hosbolo to respond. Now they want Hosbolo to recover, and that's going to
take a while. And the Uranians are not in a position domestically or internationally to strike back it or gain them nothing internationally it or just filify them further and lay them open to further attack, especially now they've lost their anti defense systems. But domestically they're dealing with a lot of you know, some unrest. All right, I'm not you know, we're not talking about kind of a whatever. It was a green or orange revolution as it was
back in two thousand and eight. Green, yeah, necessarily, but that is that's everyone's concern. You know, they've got a new president I'm talking about Iran. He's a little more moderate for what it's worth, and that's supposed to reflect domestic sentiment and domestic sentiment, you know, is strongly militating to be part of the world again, right as strongly as it possibly can in a non democratic country like Iran. But people are getting pissed off with all this following
foreign adventuring. Their economy has gone down, the toilet price of bread and you know, the sky high. People are feeling the pinch they have been for years. And they don't like reading about Iran gallivanting around, jousting with Israel or anyone else when when they're having trouble putting food on the table. And that sentiment I think is influencing decisions within the Iranian regime.
Yeah, I mean it makes sense for them to be more pragmatic, right because it doesn't seem like even if they were to have an all out you can't even have it all out war, but an all out exchange militarily with Israel, it's not really gonna work out great for them.
Yeah, it's it's it's not a it's a lose loose for them right now. Yeah, and and you know they don't. I mean, the the Uranians have a new friend, remember that, Russia, So they're not quite as it might In other words, they have the ability to recoup recover from this because Russia, as I've mentioned well, will resupply them with certainly with the ed offense systems, and who knows, maybe even with
h with ballistic missile technology. It's just the same way we're worried about Russia providing North Korea with some of this technology. Certainly, you know, Russia's not bound by any international ethical norms to prevent it from doing so.
But that also speaks to that broader topic of like you see this new access kind of form. I hate that kind of like Atlantic Council word, but that new like access of like country, whether it's Russia, d p R, K, Iran, China, I feel like China is probably providing some stuff more on the low end, like you know, covertly rather than straight up overtly.
Yeah, I'm just you know, with China though, I mean there's yes, certainly China and Iran recently signed a signed a deal, and I'm just trying to think a specific technology that maybe exchanging hands there. I think more I think that deal was more important economically perhaps to Iran than militarily, of course, very much more economically as a
as a market for oil. But the Russian agreement is very important because remember since nineteen seventy nine, Iran has not been able to or has limited ability to upgrade its military equipment. In nineteen seventy nine and the revolution, the entire Iranian military was outfitted with US gear. You know, I was, and when I was in Iran just eight years later, that was very visible. You know, when they were going to war with the RAQ in the staging areas, you saw M one thirteen and yeah, and the the
you know, soldiers carrying the US weapons. Back then, it was like the you know, the original sixteen A one.
It was very.
Uh, it looked discordant, you know, it looked strange. But that you know, that's even now. I mean, that's a long time ago. So then they've been kind of gonna shift since then to Soviet pack weapons, and that's where Russia former Soviet pack weapons, and that's where Russia comes in and is a huge ascent.
Sure.
Yeah, I've seen the memes like the lone F fourteen that the Iranians still have, which I can't believe they started flying.
It's pretty crazy.
Yeah, let's hope the Russians don't, you know, start providing them with frog foots.
Yeah, frogs heat frog foot right.
The STU twenty five, Yeah, SU twenty five and twenty nine, which had been kind of the not you know, not just the workhorse, but the I mean the most capable fighters, and we've seen in the Ukrainian conflict. Again, we need to get Alex hollings on here. Yeah, I mean what I'm talking about remote boom refueling.
And Alex knows the variance of every single one like he's uh.
And I want to hear you know, it's very I find this interesting, but I'm not even going to step under this technical precipice. How you know, these the Israelis have have played around with the F thirty five, with its you know, obviously with its stealth capability, but also its refueling capability to ensure that they can conduct a raid, an attack that is both stealthy and self refuel you know,
using that platform. But again, the israelis only half you know, hard to say how many air operational, but I think we we sold them fifty, but I think only thirty nine have been delivered. So again, all this talk about hundred and thirty fives is absolute trash. Yeah, but yeah, let's let's get Alex back on this is a good trailer.
Well, I mean, there was a reason why they did the three waves, right, The first wave is to suppress the air defenses and the others.
Yeah right, well, well interesting the first the first the first wave was to remove any possibility of early warning. Right. So we don't know exactly what tracked the aircraft took, but it's a safe guess that they went over Iraq and Syria, right, because that's where the first wave went to remove those you know, the radar sites and the air defense sites. It was mostly radar sites, but as I said, I think there were also air defense sites
that they removed in Syria in that first wave. And then, as we predicted on the show, the second wave was was intended to totally denude the Iranians of their S three hundred four hundred capability.
That's pretty scary. I'm pretty impressive that they're able to do that. I mean, because you know, if you're even just like a layman who's semi interested in like air defense and like, you know, air forces, the S three hundred and that's four hundred have been like the be all end all of like the surface to air missiles.
Yeah, I mean they, I mean the S three hundred member, which is an outdate. I mean, it's like a thirty year old system was the workhorse in Ukraine and has done you know, did incredible work. But but the key vulnerability is the radar. You know, you can move the interceptors around and disguise them and everything, but the radar gives off the signature and that's you know, you can't avoid doing that in those systems, and that is what undoubtedly the IS radies went off time, you know, anti
radiation missiles. So you wight to you know, you wy to shut down the capability, but if you open it, then you open up a window of vulnerability.
Yeah. So what do you think does happen next with with Iran?
No? I think I think we're going to see I don't think anything's going to happen. I think we're going to see some rhetoric and then things are going to die down. I think, you know, although the really said this is the end of the first phase the strike, what I'm being told is that there is you know, subsequent planned phases are they are contingent upon the Ranians responding to this one. So if we just see rhetoric in return that I would say, that is it, which
is good news, good news for all. There's another thing, actually, you know, kind of interesting when we bring Alex back on, is the command control of an operation like this, and it gets back to the you know, obviously you need a really good aerial command and control. You can imagine doing this. That's not easy and it can't be done from the ground. And that is the Israelis again using
these converted seven oh sevens. So I forget that the terms and one of our listeners won't remember, but they're not just refuelers, very capable refuelers, but they're also command and control aircraft. And that is another you know, the fact that the Israelis can command control and operation of this size involving multiple types of aircraft, multiple targets, drones,
says a lot for the you know, their capability. They of course, their air force, ever since its formation back in nineteen forty eight, you know, when it was a handful of World War Two veterans flying believe it or not, checkmatee BF one oh nine missish Metz. You know, the air force has always been kind of a main effort for Israel, you know, the best people and the most money, highest technology, and they focused very very much on this capability.
This was, in a sense, a superb dress rehearsal for them if they do go off the Iran's nuclear capability.
Yeah.
So a bit more detail on the message that Israel sent to Iran yesterday for the attack. This is from Barack Ravid, the Axios reporter who's really got a good thumb on the pulse of what goes on. A senior official from another country that was asked by Israel to convey identical messages to Iran called me today and confirmed the details in the article. Is Israel sent the messages to Iran in the days and even hours before the attack.
One message was we will attack military targets and not nuclear energy sites.
Another message was do not respond. If you react, will hit you harder.
Yeah. Yeah, And you know, as I said, implicit it that was both explicit and implicit messaging. You know, the implicit messaging is you are now very vulnerable. And the other implicit messaging ticking out those early warning sites was simply one of freedom of maneuver. You know, we can
do this anytime. You don't have to ask permission to cross people's terrain because it didn't get permission from anyone to fly over Theirs through their airspace, right, I mean they were denied entry by all Jordan, you know, Jordan most notably and recently, so you know, to avoid offending Ah kind of the forefront Arab powers, you know, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia. Is very unlikely that the Israelis would ever go near any of those countries when they when they
conduct their overflight. Although I will say when they went after Yemen, when they released video of of refueling, you could see a friendly Arab country coastline in the background. I won't mentioned that that country, and uh, and you know not not to say I mean obviously that that country didn't allow them to do it. Maybe they did, I don't know, right, but but normally this road does not count on being allowed overflight of Arab nations when they do something like this.
Yeah, I think that's understandable or at least like putting it out there, you know, trying to keep that as quiet as possible.
So any other questions, ste I'm sure a shot, but you know we are. This is breaking news and I think we've covered this as accurately as as anyone could at this rather pompiously, as accurately as it possible at this stage.
Yeah.
So a bit more from Barack ravid Uh. As part of the Israeli retaliatory action against Iran, a planet twelve planetary mixers that are critical components of the air rans ballistic missile programmer tacked. According to three Israeli sources, any tear mixers are used to produce solid fuel for long Ragia ballistic missiles, and their destructions really impairs Irene's ability to replenish the missiles stockpile. So they hit some Yeah, they went for it very specific.
Yeah, yeah, and that was stile Sham Industrial facility, the factory. Now, so we gained some very comprehensive planning here.
Yeah.
Any any questions from from listeners before we sign off.
Let's see if there's any create you guys. It will give you guys a few minutes. Like if you want to throw out a question in the chat, well, well I'll ask it if it's not ridiculous.
Children are back in school in tront you know, as I said, back in school, and it's a Sunday. It's in this leave my country, and that's okay.
Do they go to school on Sundays in Islamic countries?
Yeah, okay, they get Friday and Saturday off. You what do you expect a three day weekend?
Fa? Yeah? Why not?
I know in Brooklyn it's like a two day week at school. But that's that's for other reasons.
Yeah, that's like where Truan's like me. I mean, guys, if you have any other questions, shoot them in the chat right now. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Also, a link will be in the description for the new eyes on YouTube channel. Be sure to hate that because after a few of these episodes, we're gonna start posting exclusively there. So if you don't want to miss an episode, subscribe to the eyes on YouTube channel. Of course, Andy's
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The team House has I mean, we're catching up on the Teamhouse. The Teamhouse has only you know, one hundred and forty five thousand subscribers. And yeah, and I think we're at what one thousand.
Now, almost just before I think, hopefully after this live streaming.
Yes, yeah, let's let's launch this up.
Then, all right, guys, we appreciate it. We'll see you again soon actually, because we will be.
We'll be back to in a couple of days.
Hold on one second, let me make sure I can get out of this before we start talking too much.
Smack.