Israel's Preemptive Strike on Hezbollah Targets & Kursk Incursion | EYES ON | Ep. 37

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I would say everything is pointing towards the escalation. I'll come back and explain what I mean by that, and I'm open to challenges, but just by you know, by way of background, this morning, the Israeli's launched two ways of airborne sorry not airborne, of of bombing attacks using

fixed wing aircraft. And the first they struck four compounds, has bombered compounds, and I think we can assume that these were weapons storage places or either places where there were a significant number of weapons, but more likely as

storage or but not see two nodes. Quite interesting, okay, And I'm going to come back to that, because it doesn't look as though Israel really went after his boller's infrastructure and went after circling its ability to launch rockets from an area within thirty miles of the Israeli water. But these strikes were quite limited, even though you will see the Israeli spokesman saying quite rightly, you know, hey, listen, we struck thousands of rocket launch sites. Well, what does

that mean in practice? I'm not Hey, listen, this was a big strike, don't get me wrong, and undoubtedly it preempted a large his Bolla strike. It was good work evidently by Israeli intelligence, good coordination targeting with the air force in an area that they are very used to targeting, which is which is Lebanon. But but but what I'm saying now is that the kind of the the honor has been done by both sides. And now both sides.

By that I mean specifically in who uh and uh, but also you know, the the I d F two. But there are factors of factions within netna Who's government who don't want to walk that line. They want they don't care about plunging the risk of regional war. They think that the only solution is to invade Lebanon. Right for now, net Who is not on that doesn't seem

to be representing them. And you know, and for instance, he has he's in his own wording today he's kind of been almost de escalatory while shun with a very stone warning. Okay, so it looks as though I mean the the attack that let's step back, Okay, the attack that has Bolla planned, right, it may have been, yes, certainly they didn't want to tip the scales into regional war. They were all directed at military targets, but it was

it was going to be a significant blow. You know, eleven different bases to include, by the way headquartered the Mossad headquarters and Clearlite base in Herzalia, which is a poorly kept secret and you know that's that's where actually the Israelis keep all of that, you know a lot of their intelligence agencies Unit eighty two hundred two, which is there are you know there signals intelligence, you know from within the military. Well, has Polla targeted both those locations.

Apparently fortunately those missiles were either intercepted or foiled. So so, while almost simultaneous to these attacks, on the immediate aftermath or right of the first wave, has Polla launched an estimated three hundred and twenty rockets, All right, that seems a pretty exact estimation. Most of these you know, short short to short to mid range. Unclear at this stage

what damage was caused. We do know if casual There was at least one civilian casualty in Haifa and Uh the Israelis have reported that a a sergeant first class. This is a little racing, little strange American is was killed and he's actually a sailor. He was killed aboard of ships. So we don't know if there's a drone attack or what from Azbala. But but the bottom line is, you know, very low number of casualties on the Israeli side. The attack has been foiled. But what is interesting is

kind of the the afterma after this. And I'll pause there for a moment because I see you scribbling and I don't know if you're writing a fire him.

Right Iran is telling the world because remember it still has an open account with Israel for the murder of no I'm sorry, the assassination in its words, the murder of Hana, who was the head of political head of Hamas who was killed in Tehran a few weeks ago. Okay, but Iran has kind of been while beating its chest as usual about retaliation, has said that it will meter it didn't use that, but it will gauge its retaliation looking at what is happening at these talks in Cairo.

So both has Bolla and Iron now are saying much hinges on these talks, which, by the way, are kick are still going underway right now. The you know, the in israelit just spoke a few hours ago the use usual kind of bomb bus. But but at the same time, you know, he's saying, hey, for now we have finished. You know, we have accomplished our mission in retaliating for the death of of Shu Shugar right, who was killed along within a few hours of Hania a few weeks ago.

The Israeli's claimed responsibility for killing Shuka, but not for Hania, you know, for for reasons, probably the good reasons known only to them, if indeed they were behind Hernia's assassination. In any case, so his Bolla has kind of chalked the slate, evenly, wipe the slate clean as for atoning for the death or in yet, but I mean a tether shaka in its own perhaps in its own eyes.

And you know, for you know, Israel's part gallant, who's their defense minister told us defense minister, you know, within hours after the strike that he was that he and the and the Israeli government were very sensitive to de escalating and avoiding regional war. All right, take that as you will, but that's what you know, that that is what the government is saying. I'll pause for a moment.

kind of just rely on that. And I think, but but let me the other part of that, though, there is there's one very important caveat if we're talking just missile defense capability, defensive capability, Yeah, absolutely, you know, I mean it would I can't see. That would have been a very tough decision for the Israelis to go ahead and take that. And and not obviously, as we know, because of a threat from Lisbola, but because of a threat from Iran, which is the real fear that everyone has.

That's you know, that's real, the real wild card there. But yeah, that's I mean that that's that's a great question.

But for now things seem to be, you know, relatively quiet. However, on on the Israeli side, there are considerable internal tensions, right, I mean, as I've said, for the time being, Natania who seems to be planting his feet in the camp of those who want to you know, who don't want to, who want to perhaps avoid going to war now in leven of notes, I say now because there are certainly a higher percentage of Israelis and it isn't just on the right who think that war was inevitable but maybe

not now, not while Gaza is kind of still continuing, all right. And the reason why there is a strong impetus within Israel to do that is simply because mensments vary, but somewhere between, you know, forty and seventy thousand Israelis are still displaced. They can no longer live near the border because of the threat of miss rocket and missile attack, and so they Israeli see that as a violation. Many Israelis, perhaps most, see that as a violation of that ceregnty

as Is. I mean, they can't live in their own in their own country. I'm paraphrasing what they're saying. So they are already at war with Hazbola and his Bolla would of course say they're already at war with Israel. It's you know, this is Mormon, but both sides are aware of the walls of the game. We talked about this and in the aftermath of a stripe, it just happened. And I don't know this firsthand, but in the aftermath a there is a direct line of communication between Israeli

I well idf Intelligence and his Bolla. As strange as that may seem to kind of put in context things that have happened. You know that that sounds crazy, right, sounds like a kid's game. Hey, dude, here's why we took through pieces of your game at board because you did this. But you know, notice we'd let your city alone. I mean, but it is kind of that it's saying, here's why we did this, just you know, but we haven't struck Beirute, we haven't struck the Becker Valley.

to make the next move. There's one wild card here that is the Houthis obviously who I mean I say obviously because of course the Houthi's right who have entered stage left saying that hey, by the way, they're going to strike Israel again. And whether they do, you know, whether what happens and whether Israel response really depends if you look at this on on where An israel adversaries strike. Okay, this,

this may be this may be a code. You know, obviously, I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed this. But if you hit tel Aviv, there's going to be a response, right if you if you stage there of tel Aviv and only hit military targets, it's still going to be a response, but it's going to be far less. And then the Hooti's case, there may be no response at all. You know, I'll give you no example, right, I mean, the Houthis flew more than one drone into

a lad right causing casualty. But it took them flying one into tel Aviv, into the capital and killing someone for the Israelis to go and bomb her data. So but but why is that important? Because Hisbola understands that that's part of the game. And you'll notice that none of these missiles targeted civilian infrastructure in tel Aviv that you know, the nearest targets were, as I mentioned, you know, the Lila base in Herzlia, which is very nice part

of Herzelier. I suppose that's a downside though, of paying of living there is it's so close to so much of Israel's intelligence infrastructure. They've got to live wealth, these intel guys.

it's a haven for his balla. But he doesn't care about the population there, and he doesn't care if they've been displaced or they continue to be hip ary, you know, Israeli as strikes. When it comes down to it, he wants to be seen to care. But but the Israelis,

you know. And again this is just I mean, I think stating facts little trickier in a democratic I mean, yes, leban is democratic, but there has Bollers hold on Lebanon is not democratic, right, But little trickier than when you have a democratic government beholden to its citizens trying to justify why a sizable portion of that population cannot live in that part of the country. You know, surprisingly net who is not Again this is just I think it's

just an objective statement. But now is not actually a hawk by background, all right. And some might say because he's a political survivor survivor and wars bring an end to political careers. But here he's trying to walk. So

it's not because he's necessarily a passive. But in this particular case, he is trying to walk a line between those who are calling for all out war now and you know, and those who are our urging caution you, or at least until the idea has had a chance to regroup and recover from Gazan, which it has not. You know, it hasn't done so yet. I think that's that's an issue that doesn't really get stated enough.

because his ball is strong in Soudain eleven. But the reason why it's strong is because the fighters are from that area. You know, you can't you can't move his bolla north from the border because they live there, you know, with their families and everything. That's I mean, his bolla is like what they do for most of them hard time, but nevertheless that's you know, they they they're an integral

part of the landscape there. But as far as civilian populations, yeah, I mean it's sadly in southern Leven and it's the poorest who can't move and don't have shelters and are still stuck in you know, the towns like the one that was that was struck today and and Mansouri, yeah, you know, I mean Massori still has a significant population there simply because they don't have anywhere to go. They

can't move. And on the Israeli side, you know, I mean there are again I mean not it Israeli is aren't all rich by any means, and many of them can't afford to move either. I mean, the population, large segment of population lived is still there and a number of them, you know, don't have shelters don't have things sent that they're supposed to do. Uh So, yeah, in the end, it's civilian populations on both sides whose suffer.

But the impact that that has kind of on the warfighter or or that people who decide whether or not to go to war. It's like you have a greater impact in Israel and it's likely to be on the side of the hawks. That makes sense.

is a cause of contention in the peace talks. It scores a contention of Egypt to some extent, but it's it's a it's become a point of contention too. And then in the peace talks because the Israelis insists that they want to remain there. Indeed, they assist they need

to remain in guards for itself. Right now, as I've said, they've got brigades boys outside they've got and they've got a brigade plus in the north, in the northern part, and then one that's just within kind of the city boundaries midway, so they you know, that within and striking distance of any part of Gaza, either within that or just outside. What's sort of fighting verry for a little ground fighting, you know, is taking place at all in

the last certainly in the last a few days. It's the Israelis continued strikes, but it's as far as fighting, no, it's been it's been quiet. But nevertheless, I mean Gaza, a campaign that has gone now for ten months, right has trained the IDF and for a force that relies heavily on its reserves, it's had a heavy, heavy impact on the economy, right by the way, that is another reason why that there's a strong impetus within Israel not to go to war in Lebanon right now, because war

is awful for the economy. You start getting hit by or you just have the threat of missing one rocket attacks, or you're a country at wall, then you have to close down your airport. Well, Ben Gurin was closed down for a few hours today and you know you could see on on kind of the Twitter space, the the frantic calls for it to be open, you know, I

mean that's just a few hours. So it's there's a lot of factors here at play, but they all kind of line up behind this, these attacks today being pointing towards the escalation. I hope obviously, I hope I'm right. I want to say I won't, I won't ventures to display on that.

since you know, nineteen eighty two. Her mas Her mass was never kind of a blip on the horizon there, so you know, in the words of one IDEF general commented to me, he said, hey, look, we've got more targets in Lebanon then we could possibly execute. We just don't have the time and we don't have the resources. And they, you know, and so they're continuously perfecting and refining these targets. Now, when you're talking about rocket launch sites,

those are really transitory. So it's difficult to assess what we call bda battle damage assessment on what were the real effects of this. And it's not going to be in tonnage of bombs or areas destroyed. It's really hard to tell what the preemptive effect is, except you know, in kind of interestingly enough, I think in the fact that Hospollow was unable to launch a concerted counterattack. Okay number one, you know if it had missiles at hand that had survived, and it certainly would have done so.

And scondly is the kind of the wording I mean of coming from Israela. If if there was more to come, it's a Sunday punch was still waiting, then then I know in ISRAELA wouldn't be using this kind of de escalatory language that he did today. That's just my hunch.

very very quickly, you know. I mean you've all had experienced in drones. One of the hallmark features is that they you know that you can is their sound. I'm not saying you wouldn't hear this these drones. I'm just saying by the time you heard it, it doesn't leave you much time to react. And they're cool. Palaian nitsa, Palaian nits.

was drones. So yeah, you know, you think, well, now it's not only the fact that they can can hit their targets very quickly, high impact, blah blah blah, but you've got the deception factor that they selled at least, you know, like like fixed wing aircraft. I don't know how they show up on on radar, but you've got the fact that they're now probably diverting resources. So you know, I mean, like like the Cursedkin cursion, this is great news and it's almost a distraction though from what's going

on in in Dombas. Don't get me wrong, I think this is look look, being being able to to strike targets within Russia, I think really ratchet out the tension even more on Poutin. And you just have to you just have to watch how he reacts to threats to Russian soil. At the beginning of the incursion to curse, he's caught on I think it was online TikTok video, yelling and screaming at his at his commanders. You know, it's like it's like a scene what's that horrible hackneyed

Hitler movie Downfall. Yeah, it's like a bunk doubtful. Yeah, So he's you know, I mean, there's no doubt about it. He this is really this is really putting him, and the Ukrainians know that, and then they're going to keep watching it up. But and the same thing now, the psychological factor of having your own cities hit by these drones and a little cost or i mean relatively little

cost or risk to the Ukrainians. It could possibly in the course of the next year, turn the tide on the Russians as far as you know the missile war, it could, although that depends on a number of things, like the Ukrainians getting had a quit I mean more missile defenses. But the problem is this, So all of this is going on, and the Russians have according to the British papers this morning, they're within five miles. All right, that's eight kilometers for those of you who struggle with

the imperial system, eight miles of Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk is a town I'm very familiar with. I've spent a richie and I have spent a lot of time there in a dreadful hotel that reminded me of forty towns. Anyway, I digress. But no one wants to afford to the Russians they're

within five miles. Why does that matter? Because pot Rovsk and Kramatosk are the only the two major cities left in Dombas and once they have fallen, then you know, Putin can can pretty much claim that he has captured all of that region of Ukraine, which is one of his stated war aims, and be a huge blow I mean materially, but the psychologically too for the Ukrainians, so that you know that all of these things are you know, uplift the soul to see Ukrainian troops holding I mean

it's the significant out of land. It's five hundred squam milels of Russian territory, the holding like ninety three settlements they've captured, uh since six August, so what's then?

down the Russian advance and Dombas. Okay. Nevertheless, yeah, it's it's certain. I think it's certain to have slowed down and thus reduced the Russian threat to pop Rosk, which I just mentioned, all right, So that makes sense. And secondly, is it's kind of you know, change Ukraine's narrative of battlefield defeat, which has kind of been hanging over it since the offensive of last summer failed. You know, put it out is a better way to put it. In the fall of last year, right, and Ukraine needs a

story of resilience. More than resilience, you know, a win. In the same way, remember that the stories of Ukrainian soldier civilians fighting off Russian tank columns north of Kiev in the open days of the war inspired the world, I think in the same way. That's you know what what the Ukrainians are looking for, and it's more than

feel good. The Zelenski took you know, yesterday was Ukrainian in the end, It's day, right, So Zelenski, on Ukrainian Independence Day, to some people's surprise in the West, reiterated the fact that that Ukraine would not settle while the Russians held you know, any part of Ukraine. And to that point there had been some speculation that he might start seating or talking about seating some of the four regions currently occupied by Moscow in exchange for peace. But

absolutely the opposite of that. There's a message of defiance on that day. So you know, along with that, along with that message comes this incursion, the curse and now the ability to hit Russian cities, Russian infrastructure. Probably not at scale yet, but if the Ukrainians have you know, Ukrainians, being who they are, I'm sure will innovate so that they are producing these things at scale. It's had enough to change the tide of the wall. I don't know,

you know, probably not. Other factors will come into play. But but in the end, I am optimistic, you know, I mean, I think, I think that the that you know, hard times are not over. Far from it. Ukraine's facing a manpower crunch, which is something I wrote about about a year ago, but it's really hitting them hard now.

And you know, they're trying to chase down the six hundred thousand or so men who eligible from military age, who either who who supposedly left the country, you know, the working on ways to compel them to return.

You know, see, Ukraine is trying to prepare for the possibility that US will no longer be able to support it after ourcoming election. So all of these things are unfolding in the background and undoubtedly had influence on, you know, on Zelenski's decision to launch this incursion into into Russia.

struggling there feeling there. It's very interesting. It's because while you know, the Russian made or the smaller, lighter European tanks are are doing much better because our tanks were made for you know, they were made for the planes of northern Europe and then they've been on that test did and hard packed sand and tarmac, but they haven't had to go to war in a place like you know, the Dombas and Ukraine, which is literally I mean it's

like a roller coaster of mud pits. It's like one of those it looks like the course of the mud run, you know, wherever you're driving, it's hard to get through the best of times. So, yes, so the N one A one failed there and the Ukraine is very reliant on you know, on the I don't know, I've heard the Leopard is performing much better, but also on you know,

their own legacy, the Soviet model tanks. I think the British challenger to challenger the challenger to to anyway, Yeah, I have a question, what's that?

I don't know how you don't. The only really reset relations if if Putin's gone.

to NATO manufactured weapons. Right now, there's a prohibition on those being used within Russia, although although the US administration just in retrospect waived that requirement for the Striker vehicle, which is which is sitting on Russian soil right now, Vicinity of curse. Yeah, after those pictures emerged, we got the that that waiver came out pretty quickly. Oh yeah, armored personnel cares, that's not a problem. But we didn't

envision that we were talking about long range. So you'll see in for instance, the British papers are Selenski appealing directly to the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying who's a labor prime Minister regardless. You know, unlike here, both sides in the UK, Labor and Conservative are very

storm supporters of Ukraine and anti Russia. So Zelensky has reached out to the British Prime Minister specifically about storm Shadow, asking hey, can we get more storm shadow and permission to hit targets within Russia?

an unknown quantity, but UK saying up to three quarters of that number, who knows, Wow, But they gave him a shitload and they gave them a big percentage of what they have. But now so now the question of hey, can we use these now to hit targets in Russia is a significant question. Right Previously they're allowed to the Brits said you can hit targets, you know, in Crimea,

but but not Russia itself. There are those in Ukraine who say that that in conjunction you know, with the F sixteen's coming in, in conjunction with ramped up production of one five five rounds, you know, imported one five five rounds from Europe as well as the US. You know, all of these things are are combining to to give Ukraine a better edge in twenty twenty five. And of course, you know, I think there's a good rational that who

that right? I hope too, you know, putin chokes and buys on a chicken bone in front of front of his family. Yeah, but I can't.

a reason because you've got all these dudes who kind of flirt round with RT and do interviews or even host interviews and do things as though it's okay, right, Yeah, And I don't know. I can't come in about what the you know, investigating Scott Ridder and this other dude.

are right of center. They're not full on you know, goose step right of center, but right of center. If you're in the you know that's understandable. So that's where we try to keep it. And it's hampered our growth in terms of like money or like subscribers and stuff. If you started talking about UFOs and you know, right, we would be, Yeah, we'd be. I swear to god, we'd each have jet skis.