Is the Middle East About to Explode? w/ Mick Mulroy | EYES ON | Ep. 34

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the Middle East. That's an Assistant Secretary of Defense, and you know which time I was fortunate enough to work with him, very much below him with him and then since then has run the Lowbo Instudent. If you're interested in the Lobo Instudent, and who could not be. If you're interested in world events, if you care about things like war and prevention of war and child soldiering, and you know all the peripheral tragedy that comes along with geopolitics,

then Mick and his team are your guys. And I'm a very junior member of the Lobo Institute. I'm still waiting for my T shirt and my laminated card, but nevertheless very proud to be part of the organization. So enough enough intro make over to you, and you know, first and foremost, let's talk about the astounding news emerging this morning about about Mossad outsourcing, assassination attempts or successful assassination efforts.

if you're talking about the LA politically. You know, I think most US media outlets reporting that it was a planted bomb, right, and now we've got IRGC saying that there was some kind of close proximity guided munition of some sort. So I don't know which one it was. But obviously to be able to get into your most senior adversaries adversaries as a country, and which is obviously very controlled, you know, being top down autocracy, and do

something like this is pretty impressive. Now. I'm sure the United States would have wish they didn't do it because they would like to see a ceasefire negotiation succeed. And this individual, of course was the main negotiator for the moss But from Israel's perspective, we've got to look at all it was one of two individuals that were primarily responsible for the attacks on our first seven. Yeah, so, but this is certainly two progued.

could be the case. What is But when we're talking about the kind of a skillful mechanics of this hit and make you you you know, you know more than any most people on this, But there's a there's an opportunity, I mean, there's a cost once you once you execute, right, I mean, they had the according to the Daily Telegraph this morning, who you know supposedly has half a dozen sources within the IRGC. Uh, this was prepared like three or four months ago. You know, three bombs were placed

in three separate rooms the IRGC. You know, the guys, the informants are saying that that it was an inside job in that Mossad hired agents from Answer al Mardi, which is the protection unit that the IRGC uses for

domestic protection of the IPS. So it really is kind of you know, these guys are super screens for loyalty and everything else, as you can imagine, so it's an extraordinary you know, you're almost sense that maybe, I mean, if you want to be a conspiracy theorist, you've come up with some thing where Natanya who is in cohorts with Iranian administration here right, I mean, it's it's just bizarre.

But anyway they executed. Now they can't do it again, you know, So question number one was this right target? You know whatever the ram oft We probably can answer that now. But number two, what's the immediate fallout? I mean, Gharni himself came out yesterday answered this was like a huge humiliation the outside. What what these informants are saying is that the IRGC's reflexive response was, oh, this was a missile and they claim to see a projectile outside

the pane of glass whatever, whatever. But that was kind of an instant reflexive reaction to ship this was this is really really fucking embarrassing. How do we explain this? What do you what are your thoughts about that? I know we can't verify any of that stuff right now, but what do you kind of general thoughts about the latest news that's right?

whether it's strategically smart or not, it was. It was tactically sound and to be the ability to recruit somebody that close and that screen, as you point out, is impressive, and then get get these certain explosive devices in place which could be detonated obviously remotely, once you realize that your target was there, right, and they must have had an idea that that Hynia and people like him stayed in these they said, it was like a veterans type

almost like a boq or something like that. Something. But they put VIPs that were you know, associated probably with the proxy courses right in this area, and so they must have they had to figure that out. They had to get it in, and then I had to figure out when he was there, right, because it doesn't do any good just to clack it off and you know, the wrong people are in there. So, you know, from a technical and tactical COVID operations perspective, it was. It

was pretty phenomenal. Now I know people saying, well, they did it, you know, with the intent to embarrass potentially right. It was the presidential inauguration. He was invited as a guest of you know, the Supreme Leader. It does look like it was almost intended to just really just like stick it to him right in the eye. And maybe it was. It very well could be. I'm sure they could say, well, we only had the opportunity then because

that's when he was there. But either way, I think, you know, the United States came out, the US government Secretary of Lincoln specifically and said a few things, we have nothing to do with it, which may or may not be the case. Obviously, the US Intelligence Service, I am Massade, works very closer together. But since I don't think we want to see this happen, I doubt that we had anything to do with it. So I think

that's probably a fair point. I don't know, but it's it's unusual that they would not have given us a heads up, and and that is because, of course, we have a lot of military assets in Iraq Syria that are very vulnerable, uh, and we would like to know when you know, our key partner countries do things that would significantly antagonize Iran, which would then uh, potentially, So I don't know if that's accard. I wouldn't question Victoria

point honestly. So that appears to be the case. And we did not know, and we didn't participate, but we are going to be dealing with the consequences, right, I mean, we can get into their sending you know, the USS Abraham Lincoln over there right now, they're sending another squadron of your aircraft. You know, they already have the loss

group out there, multiple destroyers. It's just everything that I'm talking to folks in the Pentagon as they're sending everything they got because they expect that Iran will not only have to respond, but they all have to respond more significantly than they did even on in April. What April thirteenth. I think it was because that was I mean, it

was a big show, had no effect. They you know, they're going to have to do something at least as substantial, but I think from their perspective with way more of an impact or just going to be viewed as like a fireworks show. And of course HESBLA does too, not just because they essentially work. We're rod but you know flawed. Shuoker just got killed in Beirut, right, So that's that's

so it's a double wind. I think we're going to see something protect potentially from multiple different directions to try to overwhelm their defense system, which is not going to be good obviously for resonall, but obviously the United States could be pulled.

the battle space, so to speak. But you know, and I ask, and you can ask a lot of the guys in the last twenty years, they always get replaced. It's like that's what they call it, mole in the grass, right, So at first it seems like it's gonna have a huge impact, you know, Okay, well, nobody can replace you know, Ismael Heinea, He's been around forever. He was at one time the commander ahead of Hamas and Gaza. You can say all these things and flawed Shokler went all the

way back to the Bay Route bombing. I mean, he was wanted for that US But so I'm one hundred especially that guy seeing him gone. But you do have to calculate that in with Okay, what's the strategic impacts? What is this going to do? Uh? And you know it's it's not about that guy. That guy deserves to be gone a long time ago. But you have to calculate that and the fact that he will be replaced, right, I'd be replaced. Everybody replaced all the way up to

you know, in our system with the commander chief. So who's going to replace him? I would imagine that they would keep that somewhat hidden, so we didn't just they don't just put a giant, you know, bullseye on his head. But I would say that that is that is something that's you know, we're going to be trying to find out. But they always replace them, so it is worth thinking

them out. But it's always important to realize that it's not going to change the trajectory of the group as much as we would like, and you have to deal with the consequences, which in this case, the cease fire negotiations at least for the nearest maybe meetings are completely.

I think we we love the culture, personality, and so we think that removed personalities from the picture will affect the you know, the overall situation. But our enemies are more pragmatic. Perhaps the one exception I can think of is an Israela. You know, I think if he disappeared, that would have a cataclystmic effect on his boller. But that it's going back to how clever it was, the fact that it has caused so much internal questioning and dissension.

You know, there's an internal blame game going on now in the ILGC. You know, you've got a former Iranian intelligence minister coming out and saying, hey, I warned you guys this would happen, or the officials of the Islamic Republic should be worried about their lives. You know, this is exactly what Israel wants, of course, you know, for everyone to be looking over their shoulder and blaming each other.

that's and that didn't happen to this case. But if you can if you can do that and make you think it was an inside job and you know, without giving details, it was one uh specific mission I was involved with where the group came from the sea. Right, this is a small thing, but it really helped. And it wasn't even then intent Remember those shoes used to

wear running shoes got real popular. They were actually like feet, they just they just kind of stuck around your feet and everybody started running in them, and then dudes were falling out because like it destroys your feet and stuff. But anyway, they got real popular. So the people that came the you know, the the group that was involved in this came in and when they all had those things on, so when they took off their you know, here they were running around and oathen vice boots. Again

not intending to try to be sneaky. But the side effect was when they left the group that went the group that we were going against who had guys leave and get killed and all this stuff, they thought it was an inside job because they're like, this is an Americans. There's they're barefoot. The Americas don't run around barefoot on the beach and up into the because they could see the right and it was really it really caused consternation where they started killing each other and saying it couldn't

have been the Americans. I mean, they always you know, they have all the gear. They're not going to do this,

so I know it's kind of a funny story. But the point being is anything you could do in a cover operation so that you you don't want to take credit, right, you don't go into that business to be able to take credit, and you know, pound your chest anything you can do as a country that you're trying to carry out these things were really confused whether it's an inside job and all that is better, way better, that's the best way to do it.

it happened. I can't make sense of it. There must be something higher, right, so leaving you know, does he

need someone higher involved or something? But it would seem to me that seems you know, again, I realized we're speculating, but it is extraordinary because if you look back, you know, I was looking up on this protection unit and then they just laid down by the Supreme Council of National Security, and the Supreme Councilor of National Security essentially does a mission analysis on every mission, determines the number of designated

bodyguards where they should be blah blah blah for each official. So you you know, again you wonder if there's so much attention from high up on higher up on the security of VIPs and yet and yet the organization being infiltrated. That's you know, that's I think that's an interesting point. Number two, What happened to these guys after they planted the explosives. Where the reports are from the Iranians that they escaped the country, Well, how did they do that?

It's extraordinary, But it's an interesting point and make you you've dealt with this many times, is what are your obligations to your sources? Right in the past, when Mossad has recruited locals, they have been less than protective. In the aftermath they've you know that there's been some internal criticism about that. Hey's an intelligence organization. We have to value our sources and our accomplices. So this may be

a sign that they've evolved. They haven't, you know. In order to to secure this kind of cooperation going ahead, they have to establish reputation of looking after their sources. Because you know, with all your background intelligence, what in any thoughts about that, I mean anything unusual or is that am I off the mark?

of your organization. So if your organization gets a reputation for uh loose loops, I mean, you an't want to work with period, I make it out there, right, so even now how much money you can provide able or or whether it's because it's not all money, right, some some people work for us, A lot of people actually based on philosophical and ideological reasons, right, They are in a despot type of country, and they want to see a change that is that does actually happen a lot.

But either way, whether you're motivated by money or ideology, if you're not going to be around that long because either sloppy trade graph or you know, the need to get out there. And usually the boisterousness doesn't come obviously from intelligence professions. It comes from political folks that want

to take credit for it, right. I mean, we've seen that happen before, where even it was great and then all of a sudden it's like officials that know stuff want to say stuff, why are you talking about that? I mean, how about we just say the guy's dead. We just you know, just go with that, you know. I Mean it's usually I don't think done for vindictive reasons. It's just not really understanding the consequences as as it's coming from a political entity and not necessarily the intelligence service.

Intelligence service, you never talked they should just be willing to stay in the background. No parades, no, no uh public you know, you get my point. It's it's really not about that. It's about it's about uh, you know, just being proud of what you're you did and keeping it to yourself. You owe it to the individual and you owe it to the organization long term.

the Middle East. So for Mussat to be able to penetrate essentially the IRGC Secret Service right that protects VIPs and for them to like burn that card, how deeply penetrated is the IRGC by Mussad or Western intelligence agencies for that to just like fuck it, you know, we you know, we've been planning this and will blow our cover. And that's that they have to be you know, extremely like infiltrated.

failure with Shinbet. But Masad is really uh, you know, regardless of whether we we think that the strategic outcome is going to be positive for Israel. Masad is certainly performing some extraordinary feats him, something that you know, I would say, even with a couple of agency guys here, that our organizations may learn from. Although we can't do this sort of stuff, I understand that.

The fallout, though, is what kind of annoys me. It's because like when Israel pops off and gets everybody upset, we have to move carrier groups, We have to bring in thirty, you know, fifty fighters to knock down missiles that are gonna be shooting at it, like they know. It's just I know, it's kind of frustrating as an American because like, I'm not exactly pro Israel on this specifically net Yao.

that the juice was probably worth the squeeze in this case. Yeah, you know, and it might also cause pause in Hamas itself.

sorts of legal issues he's got to go against. That's his political issues, right or wrong. That's what some people think. There's also a part of the IDF, even with its risk, that thinks this is inevitable, Like they think fighting at Hezmola is inevitable. Not that they want to, they've got enough on their on their shoulders, so to speak. But there's a lot of Israelis. It's like, look, we got what fifty thousand displaced Israelis sitting in hotels in Tel Aviv.

They can't go back to their homes around the northern border, right, so they think it I don't think they want to see this war, but they think it's inevitable. So in some cases you could say why not just get this over winter? And then of course there's other factor which hasn't got a lot of talk. Is according to news reports, Aron's only like a week away from getting enough visile material so uranium and rich to a certain level where it can make a nuclear weapon. Right, So there's a

lot of bad stuff that could be happening. And from the US perspective, you know, yes, there's obviously an issue between the current US administration and the current is early than this person. We are longtime security partners country to country, so we are going to defend them. We're not going

to let them fail. So that's an issue they know, right, So if we're if we start thinking as they're thinking, they realize that this is inevitable and they're going to have to do something to mitigate a nuclear armed era.

They know that we're going to be there. So again I think, I think all your ports are valid, and this is something we've got to consider because it's we've got to look at it from their perspective other whether it's Satan Yah, who's you know, from his political survival, or the country of Israel, including the security services in the idea thinking that a lot of this stuff is going to happen and they might as well get it over with.

just making a comment. I mean, the negotiations, frankly have been a huge humiliation for the Israelis, and seeing someone with the power of life and death of two hundred or so innocent people and kind of milking it out, that's the perception the Israelis have of this guy. So there was a revenge quote hint inn for sure, in a way to appeal to that very kind of basic instinct.

But of course, you know, the families of the hostages are not happy because they see net cutting yet another kind of lifeline to getting you know, any survivors out of that. But at the same time, yeah, I'm sorry, go ahead.

There's always been this this kind of cloak room diplomacy. Right, So if there's if it's sensitive and you wouldn't really want your secretary of state out there meeting with people I come as, right, or any terrorist organization or unsavory characters oftentimes you use not just a CEI director that's actually unusual, but other people down the ranks right that do this sensitive diplomacy. And it's always been there, but

this is really highlighted it. And in some ways, even though it does work pretty effectively, it hasn't worked that well here, not for lack of effort. But this is going to set that back because a lot of people are going to say, wait a minute. So the whole time they've been negotiating, it's been all the intelligence services. Then the other guy's negotiator gets swacked like I don't think it was I certainly don't think it was from

our side. But people can step back and say this was, like this whole thing was right when you got the chief of Masad Massade looking across the table at the same time he's trying to negotiate at the same time, he knows what's going to happen in this whole right.

of the puzzle. Right, why would they do that? Why would they send them most important guys to Egypt to meet with uh? You know that the head Egyptian, the intelligence chief, a boss Kamal that of course you know they I wouldn't say that, friends, but they know him, wouldn't. Something's going on here.

moving the goal post. There is a belief that Haynia was what kept holding up an actual ceasefire. Ultimately he's sitting in guitar Doha at you know, a parent's five star hotel. He had under the same pressure. At least he didn't think he was. So that could be to your if they are down there and this actually starts moving forward. But the people that thought that, I think would have some validity.

they could have kept that visit absolutely secret. I mean, they could have they know how to do that. So the fact that the press knows about that visit again, it's all part of this. I mean, it's interesting. Jack will not appreciate this as an investigative journalist, but a lot of times investigative journalists are following in trace of government breadcrumbs, right, we're not here in the States. I'm not sure we're that's smart, just too New York times

with too much of the democracy. I mean, democracy is messy. We can't make all these things happen, and thank goodness we can't. But it's really yeah, it's another layer. Listen, Mick. I know we've only got you for another twenty one minutes and ten seconds. Not that I'm you know, not that I'm counting every second with you with such value, but I of course I do. So what do you want to talk about? What else do you have going on in your life?

you know, it's fair one way or the other. But I can say it brought in a lot of food even the short time it was up that it brought in a lot of food into Gaza that was desperately needed by the people of Gaza. They wouldn't have gotten And at the end of the day, and we were proud to be our small part to support it. Uh. It was actually got to more people without being looted than other parts of.

that's those that's not up to us. Obviously are already be happening. But we built we the US government, well, we built the beach landing zone, the aide delivery zone, it's already there, right, the Cypriot government and everybody set up the system in Cyprus that's already there, you know, with the screeners and all that stuff that had to go into play, and now there's no so hopefully, you know, the government, the powers that be decided it needs to happen.

It's not us, by needs to be somebody else. That doesn't mean they shouldn't have the ground quarters or up. They should be opened up. But let's face it, the desperate problem there needs to have every available needs to get food, clean water, medicine in there. And eventually, when this war is over, how are they going to do reconstruction when eighty percent of the buildings have been significantly damaged to the point of living without you know, access

to the seat. Right, you can see how many problems there are just bringing forty to fifty trucks in a day, how are you going to move that many, that much rubble out and that much stuck in. So this is a much bigger issue that I think once this war is over, the international community the rest. But we're still working there. We're doing what we can inside, working with the un working with the NGOs that we've been supporting the entire time, and obviously look for you.

than expected. It is something they thought they prepared for, but it was decimated and they put it together again and learn from it. And built up an enormously robust

logist over the short logistics system based on the lessons. So, you know, we forget apparentlying kind of the I suppose the jingoistic drum here that you know, we one of our greatest strengths as Americans is our ability to innovate, Yeah, and learn from and learn from what has happened, and that is that's really the question going ahead isn't so much what happened, why is what do we do now? How do we develop it? How do we learn from the lessons? And you're right very quickly. I mean you

mentioned fifty trucks. I mean you think about it. One hundred and fifty trucks was kind of sustainment level throughout this crisis. But as you point out, when you get to reconstruction, it's going to be many times there. We've got absolutely neat eat over the shoan, the ability to deliver a material over the shoan. Otherwise it's just not going to happen.

like US can't make this happen. Well, happened to talk to anybody, but it's going to have to take, you know, leadership to you and leadership in the United States and an EU right because the Almafia plan coming out of Cyprus is really a new you thing. It's a Cypriot lead thing, but it's the the youthing. We're just going to keep doing what we're doing inside and helping as many people as you can until hopefully that gets resolved and we can we can start right now, and the

funding is already there so we can. It's a it's a temporary facility and the I mean, I don't want to get too dirty on you, but you like, oh okay, cool. We dredge out a slot that the barge can come straight into the beach and it's a nest so it's secured. And then there's a sea break, if you will, a

temporary one that depletes the wave issues right. And then there's a platform with a crane on it that can take containers off and put it straight on the trucks so you avoid the okay, put on a floating pier, and then it has to be put on smaller craft to bring it into the causeway and then down the causeway to the tried in pier and then it's on that was the jails. Ours is just barge comes straight

to the beach. And you know, the group that we've been working with, the engineering group, the shippers and the logistics, they've already done these. So it isn't a we can they can. We could show that it worked, So it's not it's thought, yeah, it's not theoretical.

only the US. It pushed up here from Virginia to guy. So, you know, I get the criticism, but it's like, hey man, you know it's it's not the critic accounts, it's you know, as Steady would say, it's Savana the arena. At least these these women were in the arena and a lot of other people were just holding you know, big fancy conferences about what should be done.

with that sentiment. Make it's that that's kind of a sub motto of our podcast here, right, If we could figure out how to make it in one sentence, you know, without sending so apliched And also, you know, the fact is, and this is a reminder, I think for the US and as we come to an election and regardless of which party wins, and we start looking at you know, there's a very uring thought that is that that has has taken hold perhaps both sides of the aisle, that

we can kind of retreat into ourselves and stop, you know, helping the world and just focus on our Appalachian problems or whatever it may be. But but the fact is that we depend on you know, we depend for our standing, on our worster and the things that we want to do because we have that obligation. And it's the aftermath is seven October, the phone didn't ring in Moscow or

in Beijing. It was everyone looked to the United States for leadership and was highly critical when you know, the perceptions were that the United States had dropped the ball. But but no other country was there, and no other country was willing to do this. And and so I'm you know, I'm with you, Meg. I mean, I'm a I'm a logical patriot in that sense.

But the fact that it didn't even know hit the media.