¶ Intro / Opening
Hey, everybody, Welcome to a new episode of Eyes on Geopolitics.
¶ Start
Is a little bit different. Today we have Mick Molroy, Mark poly Moreopolis, Jason Lyons, and myself. We are completely in one hundred percent CIA funded. Go to CIA dot gov if you want to join, uh I will send me a check. So today's show is a little bit different. We usually talk about like turn events, what's going on in the world, and stuff like that. Obviously a lot is still going on this today. I wanted to do something different where it's more I guess if a thought exercise,
I mean more or less. I'm sure there are people thinking of it right now due to like the fact that authoritarianism is rising across the world. The basic question of this show is to be what happens if America American democracies are basically a shell of itself, there's an authoritarian regime in power. What would allied and enemy intelligence agencies be doing in America in terms of operations that
you see them working on. You know, we see China and Russia doing stuff now obviously, but I want you to picture five, ten, fifteen years from now, there's an authoritarian regime and like places like Canada or the other five Eyes NATO intelligence agencies, what would they be doing in America in terms of operations. So I figured have the CIA guys on they would have a good understanding of that.
So here we are.
I'm here with the experts, and you know, Mick mansioned before we started recording about like, you know, talking about the rise of authoritarianism in the world. I mean, it's obviously rising as clear as day. There's statistics behind it. So thank you guys for being here year and Mick, you want to talk about the rise of authoritarianism in the world.
That's going on, sure, And this is something we talk a lot about on the stoicism side. It's kind of a long history of Stoic's plicih and get back against tyranny and autocracies. So I'm familiar with the statistics, but I want to make sure I get it right. So according to Freedom House World twenty twenty five reports, sixty countries experienced clines and political rights and civil liberties. That means forty percent of the world's population saw a decline
in their freedoms. There's now ninety one autocracies in the world, only eighty eight democracies and the arrest are somewhere in the middle. That's the worst it's been in twenty years. And up to sixty five to seventy percent of the world's population lives in an autocracy. What else that's key here?
Yeah, there was an interesting graph I saw, So.
This last one I just throw out there. This is the nineteen consecutive year of worldwide civil liberties becoming less for the people of the world, nineteen consecutive views. So the reason why I'm pointing this out is obviously to alarm people that we're going in the raw direction worldwide, but also to point out that it's not some crazy idea. I personally don't think we'll ever get to an authoritious
Straitan state in the United States. Happy to have people disagree with me on that, So I'm not saying this guy's falling. But I'm also I'm not blind, and I don't think anybody should be blind to the fact that the idea of ahuotocracies around the world are becoming more
¶ Thought experiment: U.S. turns authoritarian
prevalent and essentially view themselves in some kind of alliance against us, the democracies of the world, And I think the United States should always and his the beacon of freedom and actually the leader of the free world. So I would start with that, throw it over to you guys. But I thought it was important to point out that this is in some you know, ridiculous notion that there's an issue with freedom around the world and it could affect the United States.
Mark.
So, you know, I think mixed right in the sense of, you know, in this in twenty twenty five, we should not do things that I used to do. When people like do you call and say, hey, you want to talk about this, I'd be like, that's crazy.
I don't do that anymore.
I mean, you know, so so everything that you say that cannot happen, like masked federal agents snatching people off the streets without any due process, violating everything that policing is all about. I mean, I've talked to I've worked with, you know, police departments all the time, and they are instructing their recruits, They're instructing their officers that if you do what ICE and CBP are doing, you will go
to jail, you'll be fired. So there is you know, we see this every day in terms of elements of autocracy and fascism. It's horrifying to me because I lived in these places around the world. So I think that it's okay to talk about this even if you know, I agree with Mick it's unlikely, but it doesn't mean it's not impossible. And you know, and you know, the other part of it is that, you know, for those of us who served overseas, you know, America meant something.
You know, I'll never forget. And I think I sent you all a piece I recently did about living in Damascus and walking to the embassy at night and seeing
¶ Global authoritarianism by the numbers
the silhouette of the American flag, and that it really meant something to this to the members of a small embassy staff, but also to the Syrian people, because America stood for economic you know, liberalism and political freedoms.
And I think that's a question.
Now, you know, there is a slow, you know, march towards authoritarianism here. It's a president who believes in this kind of unitary executive power. Again, what what you see kind of the you know, the military on the streets. I mean, you know, I don't want to be hyperbolic and say we're there, because we're not, but it's worth having this discussion. And then you know, there's certainly things
though in our past. I mean, one thing I'd say day is that you know, we all did this for the CIA, maybe not so successfully so, but we certainly gave it a shot sometimes. But you know, there's a lot we can offer in terms of you know, what are both our allies and our adversaries would be doing.
And I think just to maybe start the conversation is to note that you know what you would do as former case officers here is that you would look for recruitment targets and what you have right now in the United States, and you would have if it went to a kind of full autocracy, is an enormous number of very disaffected individuals in the hundreds, if not thousands, with top secret clearances. So we would have a right pool of recruitments who are both our friends and our adversaries
would probably look to recruit. And finally, one other thing, I'm just going to tell you, I'm wearing this T shirt today, the Team House T shirt. As you know, I am a total podcast or if you send me bling, I will come on your show.
You've done that. You also promised me me a mug.
I'm waiting for that great to be with everyone again and Jason too, buddy.
Mugs mugs en route. Don't worry, Okay, settle down, that's coming the payments in the Mountain.
I get recruited by anybody to give me blame.
Yeah, you're easy.
Notes are being taken.
Yeah you hear that. China just sat over some stuff and awesome, Jay, what do you think? What do you take from this?
So when you first put it out about doing this, I my first thought was I don't have the the years and years of experience that Mark and Mick do, but I do have some experience. So I tried to look at it, put myself in the shoes, back in the shoes of myself as a junior officer, Like, what would my boss be telling me to do if I was in the United States from a you know, a foreign intelligence services and all of this has happened, what would they you know, what would they task me to do?
Uh?
And then also I was able to pull on I have a little bit of liaison experience, so I think that would be very important as well. So I would be along with reaching out to my my contacts and my assets, I would also be trying to work my my liaison contacts as well to see what they're their feelings are on what's happening in their country, and you know, they're uh, they have the pulse. So those are the kind of things that I was thinking about leading up this.
But I agree with both of them that I don't think we're there yet, but I think all of the pieces are in place, and all the signs are showing that we're, you know, running towards that we're taking the baby steps towards at UH. And it's very It's concerning because I also looked at as a father, you know, and a grandfather, what is going What is my my children and my grandchildren's future gonna look like if things keep going like this.
If you look at this like a like as a competition, if you will, between an autocratic system and in ours democratic system, they have a lot of advantages right when it comes to this kind of covert type warfare. We have a lot of freedoms and they can exploit that. We have a lot of civil liberties. I wouldn't want to give any of these up. I'm just looking at it purely intel perspective that they can they have freedom of movement, they have the ability to jump on social media,
which is pretty much unrestricted in the United States. Are completely unrestricted, I should say. Now, whereas if we're trying to affect an autocratic system, as intelligence officers like Russia or you name your autocracy, they're very controlled, right, They block social media, they block access. They I mean, especially people in the agency who worked hard target countries. They track every movement. It's it's not an equal playing field.
But I wouldn't want it to be, because that means that we be reducing our own, uh, you know, civil liberties here in the United States, which I think every American should fight for, regardless of whether you're on the right or the left or center right. But from the intel perspective, it is a challenge to affect an autocratic society because of the restrictions they put on their own people, let alone foreign uh folks that are there either a diplomatic mission or or other they have they have a
lot of control over us here. You know, I mean, how many if you look back at the statistics during elections, how many of the Facebook accounts or Twitter now x accounts are completely fabricated, right, They're they're they're not even they don't even exist. All I do is promote conspiracy theories against one American group against another American group, much of which is untrue. Probably the entire Q and I
conspiracy theories fabricated by an intelligence organization. I don't know that for a fact, but it's it's a lot of that stuff is either manufactured by a floor intelligence service or amplified by intelligence service. So you know, they say, say it was a real conspiracy theory that was out
there by some you know, disenfranchised person. The fact that you see fifty thousand people agreeing with it, you might think that it's legitimate, because I mean, why would when in fact all the fifty thousand of those people were generated faith accounts.
Right.
So there's a lot of things they can do to exploit the United States system of freedom against ourselves and get us to start fighting against each other that we simply can't do in place like child because they have, you know, complete control over the spread of information or disinformation on our social media sites interweens.
And we saw this happen.
Of course, if you look at the indictments after the Russian interference in twenty sixteen, the Russians actually, you know, the Russian intelligence service sent individuals to the US to set up, you know, fake accounts on social media, and they were trying to exacerbate, you know, kind of the hot button political issues in the United States, whether it was Second Amendment issues, or abortion or black lives matters.
¶ Autocracies' intel edge (disinfo/social media)
I mean, this is in the indictments. We have indicted Russian intelligence officers who did this because it's easy pickings here. Again, it's a free and open society. It's not difficult. But going back to what I what I said before, you know, I thought about I thought about this actually when there was kind of these rumored purges at the FBI several
months ago. That that and the FBI fired a lot of people and a lot of people retired, but it wasn't as whole scale because at one point they said they're going to get rid of several thousand FBI agents, anyone who touched the Russian investigation. And you know, the stupidity of that is is multifaceted. First of all, it's ridiculous FBI agents got assigned cases. It's not their you know,
prerogative what they were and don't work on. But do you really want to fire three thousand people, all of them who are armed with a side arm and a shotgun and have a vehicle. I mean just talking about like you know, fundamental things. And by the way, they also all have mortgages. They're sending their kids to schools,
and they got to pay for health care. And so you know, when if our country kind of moves down that line again towards autocracy and assuming of course, and this is going to maybe more scary thing is that not everybody goes along with it. And I think the results last Tuesdays show that that's that's not the case. You know, there was some kind of hope for democracy, I think, but but ultimately what you have is a
huge pool of potential recruits. Again who you know and and you know there are friends of mine who were working in national security who were when they're kind of these the big reductions in force were taking place, and I think more are coming. But they said they were getting hit up on LinkedIn by a consulting firm from the Emirates or Singapore. Now clearly it's the Chinese or the Iranians of the Russians, and they're not going to
say that it will be a commercial recruit. But you know, why would someone and by the way, these people knew what it was. But if you're desperate and have no you know, you have got to pay a mortgage and you have no health care, you're going to take those offers. And so I think foreign intelligence services. And I'll get this wrong. I was not in the military. You guys were. But I don't know if it's called operational prep of
the environment. I always throw in these acronyms that I learned from like Mick and Jason to sound really good on TV. I'm freaking wrong all the time. Someone who let me know that's really not what operational prep of the environment is.
I was like, I don't care.
It sounded good, But ultimately the operational prep of the environment in theory would be intelligence service would try to recruit disaffected individuals in the United States. And I think that as and I think that's probably the case now. The other thing, too, is because by the way, the
FBI has decided counterintelligence isn't as important. I mean, I just I gave a talk at Georgetown Law School a couple of weeks ago, and someone there had a relative in the FBI who said, yeah, they've been running around doing immigration rates and cash Mattel, the FBI directors said they're going to pull people off a CI because you know it's you know, let alone out dropping a college
requirement to join the FBI. But ultimately, I think our CI defenses are down, and then you're gonna have disaffected people and as we if we kind of continue on this march, our adversaries will have a pretty easy time.
Scooping people up. Which would be the first step.
I mean, what you do in any kind of like you know, Jason or Mick or myself couldn't have ever operated in places fomenting insurrection or trying to do regime
¶ Russia 2016 playbook & U.S. CI gaps
change if you don't have sources to do so. So I think the first thing would be kind of you know, agent operations to get people in line, in place, And just one quick thing. Remember why the Russians failed so spectacularly in Ukraine because the FSB, which was the Russian entity that was tasked to go into Ukraine, actually told Vladimir Putin yet, we have everything prepped.
But it was all bullshit.
It was all you know, they basically on paper recruiting people, we are stealing all the money. So they didn't do that fundamental piece, which is recruiting people on the ground.
I think something else to think about too, that mark you mentioned environment to consider it too is think about where we live physically, where we live, the diverse environment that we live in. It's not hard for a Russian or a Chinese intelligence officer to either come over here or already be here and just blend into the environment,
join these groups. Black lives matter, whatever it is to start fomenting dissent as well as pick out recruitment targets like I myself, like if I went over to Russia, you know, just as a as a black man, as you know, I automatically be pegged as something. And then when i'm you know, it's determined that I'm an American,
I'm automatic then double you know the problems. So depending on the cover that that intelligence officer come is here in the United States under, if it's official, then maybe you know, they might you know, catch a tail, although today we don't know that that's absolutely true or not.
But if they're here.
Under unofficial, non official cover, that you know, they could disappear into the you know, the pond of fish and do whatever it is they got to do.
So the next step and let me throw this the question to Mike. Sorry, d I'm taken over it always.
I was like the producer.
But for Mick, as you live out in a place where like everyone has like Arsenal's buried underground in their backyard, you know that there is a you know what? Okay, so let's go back into our old world, right, your agents on the ground, Well, what do you then need to do? You need to bring in things such as explosives, weapons, things to provide a a surrogate force. Well, just what you have in America an incredible preponderance of weapons everybody's arms.
So a foreign country would not foreign intelligence service would not even have to worry about smuggling anything in if they wanted to, you know, mess up the United States on this, Nick, what are your thoughts as you live out in the land of Yah.
You're then four me and just to highlight that, and I'm a weapons owner, but me and their my business partner, were doing a documentary where you're traveling around and a family friend of his on the farm and were you win And we're talking to him and the guy told us he had fifty thousand rounds may in Ish like what I mean, Just to emphasize the point. Yes, everybody's armed in Montana. It is true, so you know, not to get into a secondment question, but it would make
invading the United States like an impossibility. But to your point, Mark, it also means that if you were trying to plant, you know, cachets that you could be used to send in teams like their version of Special Operations or paramilitary teams to start things in the United States. It would be easy, right, you can because it's not just going to a gun show and all that stuff you can
buy from individuals. You could have basically facilitators assets that you pay to purchase that are legally able to purchase weapons to collect all this stuff. So whether it was a nation state that's looking to cause issues or a terrorist organization, that would make more sense, right because they're okay with getting caught and they're okay with that, you know, it's not an issue of creating the Third World War.
It would be We obviously have a lot of access to weapons, it's part of the freedoms in the United States, but it is a vulnerability. So we should always consider that. And since we have, you know, three of us that we're in the agency questions I get sometimes, although I don't know why it's still persist, but it'd be good. I think it's a good idea to bring this up. There is no deep state. I don't know. I don't know where people think this comes from. I'll have you
guys weigh in. But my experience, generally speaking, in the agency, which is probably the which is the most convertive the departments and agencies of US government, they're just average folks. They have the gamut of right, left and center. I've never seen anybody promoting their own political agenda through their actions in the agency. It's basically a bunch of Americans are just trying to do the best for their country.
And so this constant idea that there's this group of people, whether they're on the right or left or what have you, that are obsessed with their own politics is one hundred and eighty degrees out. It's just not the case. And folks that think that there should be purges because because they disagree with you politically are just I think, patently wrong. And I hope we can at least in that concept.
That would be the first step in handing these type of disenfranchisment, this othering of federal workers and all that. It's just simply not the case. There's just as many, especially in the agencies, Republicans that are all Democrats, I would guess, maybe even more independence than any other group. But they certainly don't wear their politics on their sleeve, and they don't uh conform their actions to any kind of politicals.
Don't you remember we go to the cafeteria to be people like with nose rings and blue hair, and they'd be kind of cramping out the grateful dead.
Yeah, it's incredible. Yeah, yeah, it's going on, and you know, it's a.
Yeah.
I don't know if you guys have the same experience, but I think it's important, uh that people that might not have that any knowledge of the agency or FBI for that matter, here about what people are like inside the agency, because you already mentioned them. Mark, They take their kids to soccer games, they drive me. Yeah, they do. They do really cool work. I mean, it's it's one
of the coolest jobs you could have. But it is not some you know, cabal of the smoking man sitting in a dark room trying to fit you're out how to manipulate maybe other countries, but certainly not our own. M.
I mean, look, I didn't know anyone's political ideology. I mean those of us who have come out afterwards in the prime, you know, in our private lives. I certainly you can sometimes hear people's political ideologies. I never heard it talked about at work. Of course, you're in a skip the whole time, a secure facility, and you know, we didn't pay attention to tweets or politics. And frankly you were just a sharpy you know, sharp tool of the US government. And so you know, I agree with
you totally. It's also a very I mean, ultimately, they're a pretty conservative institution. You know, the idea that that that cio FBI is the deep state. I joke my FBI friends like they wear suits like a.
Coat and tie on the weekend.
Again, they're not They're not out there, you know, uh uh, you know, popping gummy bears or or listen to Grateful Dead all the time. I mean, it's just I find it preposterous. But that's certainly that narrative is is is very much out there, and you know, uh uh, it's something that I think that the you know, obviously it still has a lot of weight in certain political you know groups in the United States. I mean, the MAGA world really does believe in this, and it's almost impossible.
To get rid of.
But they are now the Deep State quote unquote, right, they're running the show.
So it's like Cash Betel's flying around on his G five after he used to criticize others for flying around on the G five. I mean, you know, once you become the man, you're the man. Uh so, but no, but Nick, I think it's a good good that you bring that up, and it's important and you know, and having this kind of intellectual discussion is certainly let's just caveat this massively, like we're not advocating this.
Right right, obviously work against the.
United States, but I think it is interesting to see how especially our allies do and and you know, one maybe just to take this in another direction a little bit, is that I've had this kind of unofficial project as
I've gone around. I was just in Sweden talking to three former chiefs or deputy chiefs of Allied services, and just the notion is, as the US kind of moves towards, uh you know, away from kind of the democratic norms, are our allies going to start restricting intelligence from US on certain issues, and when it comes to Russia, that's
behind the scenes that they are. It's not going to be uncounters and we're kount of proliferation or other things, but on Russia where there's just such a distrust in the United States, so our allies are withholding and I think that's something that is pretty dangerous. It's pretty scary because you know, as Jason, as you noted, you ran
liaison operations for a while. Like liaison is you know, the sexy stuff of unilateral agent running is really fun, but liaison is just as important, and they can still help us catch spies and learn about you know, China and Iran and uncovered proliferation networks, and there's a skill in doing that too.
So is it's safe to assume authoritarian regime that happens in America fictionally, you know, hypothetically years down the road, that our enemies will be doing more or less, probably a little bit more like brazenly and outworthly doing what they're doing now.
I don't see what wouldn't I mean if, if, especially if that authoritarian regime is openly or even dog whistling support for what they're doing. I don't see why they wouldn't do it more brazenly.
The friends there's you know what we read buys friends on friends policy, and that that goes away. I would imagine friends on friends meeting you don't spy, are working against your allies. But once an allied country, let's say in Europe, sees the United States go down a certain path, you know, all that kind of goes away. And and by the way, and Nick, this is gonna goes You're gonna you're gonna love this piece too, because I know
you know this is true. Like think about and this, you know, think about what the British did running around in New England and Boston, British intelligence recruiting, you know, penetrations with the IRA. They did this for years and years under the nose of the FBI. And so it's not like our our you know, our our foreign even some of our our and friends haven't done this.
I have to throw a little Irish in them.
Yeah, make sure thing and come back in. Yeah, refresh your thing and come back in. Because I think it said stop recording. But we'll have respond to that one, because that was fucking good. Mick is an Irish like a Irish supremacist.
That's why it was so easy. You know, I want my talking points.
So what was that about the Irish?
This question is for Mick. No, it's the notion of not questions. It's just the idea of you know, sometimes friends or allies spying on us, spying in our country. And my notion was, you know, if the US go is kind of down the road towards photocracy, you're going to see our allies not respect that friends on friends anymore.
But I might.
My just comment was, well sometimes they don't anyway, because you saw a British intelligence who drive the FBI crazy because they'd run around Boston all the time. They're trying to recruit penetrations of the Iran. So they had already operated in the US. And you know anything you know mentioning the Irish. Oh we mentioned on this, so there you go.
Yeah, the old Black Rose have been there many times. Not to get them focused on. But I mean, if I don't think we are going to be an autocracy, but if we were, our alliances would also shift right. Photographies tend to support autocracies, democracies democracies, so our adversaries, at least what we have traditionally put as our most significant competitors are China and Russia. Right, so autocracies and are on in North Korea the kind of the rogue states.
So that would shift, I would imagine if you. But we're not because let's let's talk about that. For we have a system that would make it extraordinarily difficult for that to happen. Right, we don't have Contrary to some people who love to talk about this unitary executive theory, that's not the way the systems set up. It's actually set up the contrary to that. Separations of powers Article one's Congress Article two is the sector branch on our
three is a judiciary brand. They're all set up to never get to a point where we have the power, all the power in one branching government. But I know a thought experiment. So in the case that we were, we served that way. And remember a lot of autocracies started as democracies and then the people who were elected simply got rid of all the rights in freedoms that fall under democracy and shifted. But if we did, for
this thought experience, our alliances would be different. We would be essentially more concerned about freedoms around the world spreading to the United States, right, so we would be more
¶ Allies spying on America as norms erode
prone to be attached to the authoritarian states. And I just don't think that'll ever happen. Our country has essentially established this place in the world as being opposed to tyranny, right from the very inception, to fighting for the freedom of all individuals to be citizens in the Civil War, to defeating Nazism in Europe, defeating imperial Japanese in Asia, to winning the Cold War. Right, this is what makes America America. And it's all indirect opposition to autocracy.
So mick On, I mean, obviously we have an administration that every once in a while shows a little bit of an affinity towards Russia. That right now, the Hungarian president, who is kind of the the epitome of the autocratic experiment in Europe, he was just in Washington, and so I think people are worrying about that is that, you know, that's why you know, my friends in Europe are having kind of a collective freak out because you know, we
shouldn't be siding with Russia on Ukraine. Now, you know, I think Trump actually wakes up and changes his mind every day, So maybe that's maybe it's not ideological, but I think there's enough out there where you where you could question some of the kind of the historic American American commitment to you know, political and economic freedom and liberalism, liberalism meaning just freedom. And so that's what that worry. I mean, you know, he talks openly praises his president,
she of China. He's you know, Vladimir Putin was his buddy until recently when he's not. So I think there's there's enough worry that kind of those the foundational principles that we all work for are are creaking a little bit now. I would I would hope that that we do have this separation of powers. But Congress has been totally impotent. I mean, the Republican Party has turned into sorry, d I'm going to get us some trouble here. You guys don't have to gree with me. If anyway, don't worry.
I mean, so it's a cult that follows kind of Trump on everything when they shouldn't. They should be pushing back and and you know, and that's what I would want to see, that there's a separation of powers. I don't see that right now. Now, it's not institutional because it still exists. But I do worry.
So I totally going to push it back against Russia and Hungary. I mean, Hungary is essentially become uh an embarrassment to the EU and NATO, you know. I mean to the point where I had to talk about it this week because he was here at Washington. They can basically block them from having any say in the EU. I looked it up like they can completely marginalize Hungary, and there is a path toward even though it's not
in the Charter of NATO. There is another article in the overall Vienna Convention that we could essentially boot Hungary out of NATO. So I mean, I am probably already I am one hundred percent for defending our historic and important allies around the world in democracies. That's the other thing when a CIA officer is trying to do something in another country. Generally speaking, yes, they're promoting the interests of the United States, of course, that's what every country does.
But they're also promoting, at least historically, the interests of freedom and democracy and individual civil liberties, right, so things that I mean, we don't talk about what we do,
but we I think it we'd be proud. I'll be proud to talk about why we're doing, which is to promote the idea of other countries having the right of self governance, right choosing your representatives and unchoosing your representatives, and having the right to say what you want even if it's not what the government agrees with, and everything else that goes with being in the United States or a country like US. So certainly Western Europe is the same way, but I think we have to protect that.
So the idea that it's eroding and that people are talking about it is a good thing. It's a good thing, right, It's a good thing that we're talking about it, and it's a good thing that we're identifying where we think that would be the case, because ultimately, the idea that you would protect the freedom of speech, not just of your own ability to say what you want, which is really not protecting free speech. It's just protecting your speech. You have to be willing to protect speech you don't
agree with. That's free speech, right, and if it's if it was popular speech, it wouldn't need protection. So every American, not that they listen to me, but every American, if you believe in free speech. You need to protect the right of somebody who thinks the opposite of you, whose speech is not popular. That's protecting free speech.
So I mean that was that's I mean, that's where our country is founded on the idea of dissent.
It's good, absolutely absolutely.
If you don't like it, that's fine. I mean, you know, I live in d C. So there's a protest on every issue all the time. I don't know, it's good. You welcome that because the other thing too, that's actually an outlet for people. It's better to allow them to protest on the street rather than get pissed off. And you know, and that's that's kind of that's when you
see kind of regimes having huge issues. But but I but the the you know, the one the one thing that I think that is uh is really interesting though, is to see how our foreign partners are looking at us right now and the amount of concern and worry and so and so for have because you know, because because Trump ends up being so kind of schizophrenic on policies, you know, you can't say right now that that you know, Donald Trump is is is pushing forward a pro rush
of policy on Ukraine because it just changes all the time. So in some ways maybe that's a good thing, and they just think it's just incredibly you know, unpredictable. Uh. But but you know the I actually I worried for a while, like how do we run an agent a penetration of the Russian Intelligence Service?
Right now?
It's a job of a case officer is harder if there's questions of you know, where is the US going to go on policy? And you know, is there a works to autocracy?
All right? So like you guys mentioned like historical allies, uh, you know, NATO and five Eyes. What happens if in this hypothetical the United States is not a democracy anymore authoritarian regime? What do countries like the Five Eyes, well, four Eyes and NATO, you know, m I six, name your pick. What do you what are they doing in
the US in terms of operations? Because I mean I'm sure they still they still spy on us a little bit, right, like they have embassies with diplomats, you know, what are they doing if there.
Is I mean, under this hypothetical, our alliances would change. You would be more closely associated with other authoritarian regimes around the world, right, And so what you're calling the five eyes would even exist, right, I mean they wouldn't be five eyes. It would be or would be a different collection of eyes. Right. Ah, that it's never gonna happen. But again, I need to keep saying that. But it's
it's but I would say this. Uh So, you know I'm in the big city now, so I took the time to go to a movie last night, since we know, I went there a theater in town I live in, went to saw Nuremberg. I'm phenomenal, phenomenal. I think Russell Crowe and uh Rammy Malick should both get the oscar. Obviously you know what happened. I would just tell you, Mark, don't read anything about the story before you go, because there's going to be stuff that is true. I looked
it up afterwards. You're going to go, oh like, like I didn't know what. I consider myself a history geek. It's really But the point, the reason why I'm bringing it up is the psychiatrist that played that. Ronny Malick plays doctor Kelly, who's interviewing all these Nazis, including from
Goring main character Russell Crowe. His book that he wrote after and put the movies based on and one of the one of the main findings is although those people were horrible, they're not unique to a time and place that this could happen in any country, and we need to view it that way. Not that there was happened to be a bunch of monsters in Germany in the
nineteen thirties and forties, not that there wasn't. That certainly wasn't his point, But his point was that this could happen anywhere, and I think we ought to take that as a kind of a siren to call for what we're talking about today. Again, I think it's happy United States, but that doesn't mean it can't happen in other countries. Like there's countries that are traditionally inclined to the western Western way of governance that are not anymore, So we
need to keep that in mind. I think this movie is incredibly well done, kind of brings back your faith and our ability of ecodies, but also really important politically and philosophically.
Right now.
Looks as an older man, now here's my worry about today. It's two and a half hours. I'm gonna have to pee like three times. Yeah, I'm a little concerned about this. There's no way and night. But I'm excited to see it for all the reasons you you talked about. I think you know there it is. It is relevant historically, and it's you know, it's relevant now. And I've always wondered, you know, just about the notion of you know, how to how do societies kind of accept evil things that
start happening. And again I'm just gonna bring up in the United States now, and this this is my kind of pet peed these days because I watch all the ICE and CVP raids that are going on in Chicago and other places, and it's horrifying. And again, I work with police departments all the time, and this is against all policing. It's this is this is out of the
fascist playbook. And what's happening. I mean literally police departments are telling their their officers that you cannot do this, you will be prosecuted, you will be fired.
They're having there.
I mean in big city East Coast police department I work with, they're literally saying you cannot cooperate with ICE or BBS, a border patrol on this. And so there's parts of so there's some things that and I do wonder I mean I get upset about this, but I think, you know, half of America looks at this and they're not disturbed. And I don't understand that, because this is just kind of basic decency, you know, matching a car window and dragging a freeman woman out with a kid
in the back of the car. I don't understand. I don't understand this, and so I think there is some relevance. And of course it's not the same and it would be too hyperbolic if we said, you know, we're at that state now of you know, nineteen forties Germany. That's crazy, But there's stuff that goes on today. You're just like, I'm not sure how this is happening in America.
It's a little disturbing.
So I got a question, what would a what would a country like Canada be doing? I know, like they're a friendly neighbor or whatever, but like they have a secret intelligence service. What are they doing in a country that is completely falling apart at the scenes in terms of liberal democracy. Are they working with resistance groups, are they taking a more active role or like what are you guys speculative obviously, what do you guys think.
They believe here? You're thinking like a handmade's tale kind of scenario. Here is that with because under that scenario, if you read the book of the books, the United States becomes somewhat of an authoritarian country in Canada's like freedom freedom land.
Right. Well, no, my, my, my questions based on the fact that, you know, if the US democracy were to like be a shell of itself, it would totally affect Canada because Mexico. That's why that's my thought process in terms even though handmates tell is great.
I think more than anything, their their immediate mission would be to find out what, I what is going to spill over into Canada. You know, what are our plans or what are whoever's in charge of plans? What are they for Canada as far as military intelligs whatever it is. And this takes us back to when President Trump had his you know, site set on Canada for whatever reason, whether it was tariffs or turning it into another state or whatever it was. Those sorts of things. They're laughable,
but those are the kind of concerns. You know, it's like, is he joking? You know, we want to know what your leaders are thinking. So I think the Canadian Intelligence Service those are the kind of things short term or long short term would be, is this violence or is this unrest or whatever it is that's going on in the US going to spill over in Canada? And then long term, what are the US is whatever, whoever's in charge in the US, what are their plans for us?
Because there are we're neighbors, you know, and Mexico would be thinking the exact same thing.
Yeah, And a lot of our allies have started taking steps because either the intelligence that they usually get is then we already boot some people out of I mean Mark might remember this, R. Jason. Then we already start restricting certain intelligence to some of the Five Eyes. And I know we were talking about it, but if obviously, if we shifted entirely, then I think Canada is gonna would look at us as one of their highest priorities
for collection, right. I mean, we're way bigger than them, and we're right below them, and we've already talked about them being a fifty first state. So if I was them, I would be quadrupling my military, making it and properly trying to gain a nuclear weapon, right, the ultimate security and increasing by intelligence capacity beyond one that just you know, basically butters up to the agency to get there and tell it has the capacity to do it themselves and
including a covert element. So I mean, that's what I think I will be doing if I was Canada.
Yeah. Look, and there's things that are happening in Canada now in the sense of you know, there is there's obviously a massive crisis and confidence among Canadians and the feelings towards the United States. But but you know, the
¶ What Canada/Mexico would do next
Canada is the kind of US. These are the largest trading partners. But because of this kind of crazy twerff where you know, Trump sees a mercial during the World Series, gets pissed and throws massive tariffs on Canada, which is bananas. But the Canadians are looking right now to China. I mean they've announced it publicly. They said the US is not may not be reliable. I mean, they don't want
that because the economies are so you know, intertwined. But they're gonna, you know, they're going to look to China as a as a more reliable partner, and I think the Chinese will probably take advantage of that. One of the things you see amongst our allies now and again this is why it's it's so kind of uh self defeating in some of the kind of the rhetoric and the strangeness coming out of the White House when Trump
gets pissed and lashes out. Is countries that originally we're going to buy, for example, the F thirty five are not you know, they're going down different roads in terms of acquisitions. Portugal is not looking at the F thirty five. Ukraine just bought the Griffin, and so you know, the things that are happening in which there's questioning on US reliability and that's what you would you would see kind of in the future as well. Again and this and
it's not gonna happen in this hypothetical scenario. It's kind of a creeping march towards authoritarianism. Now to kind of put some a favorable spin on this, I mean, I I do think the American people don't like this notion. Uh and there will be kind of pushback on that. Uh, but you know, we'll we'll, I guess we'll see in the midterms.
Yeah, that'sday.
It was an example that I mean, look, whatever party is in power, it's always good when there's a course correction everything happens and the left comes into power, we swing too far to the left, and there's crazy ship the left does. The right comes into power, now they do stupid stuff, and so Americans usually course correct. And that's why I think Tuesday, because you did have you know, New York City race is stupid and everyone you know,
Fox News loves this, but it's irrelevant. But that's why when you see centrist candidates, when the governor races in Virginia and New Jersey, I think that's a good thing.
But I think the midterms will tell it's a lot more. And you know it's and.
That you know, divided government is a good thing. Americans like that, and there's a reason for that.
Make you were going to say, actually, I was going to say something some of the what Marcus said that unfortunately, I mean, as I'm probably on the right, maybe Mark's on the left. Then Jason characterize your self. But what I see is the pential intense to never like slow
down in the middle. It just goes right. So you're talking about the issues that we have with ice right now that probably wouldn't happened if they didn't essentially open the border for several years, right so I mean, it's if if we could get you know this, the pendulum slow down in the middle and maybe even stop. I think that would be very helpful. But you know that's politics.
Are you would stand on that. But it does tend to cause a reaction that it keeps pulling the pendulum higher up on the on the vortex, if that's the right term, you know what I mean, It goes higher up on each side each time. And I don't think that's helpful to the United States, and certainly not helpful to a modern democracy where it's very difficult to have a long term strategy if we keep shifting entirely our
not just internal politics. I focus on external But our allies want to be able to rely on us period. They don't want us to every four years decide whether we want to support we praying all out or now we don't care. I'm not saying that's the case right now. Obviously it's plenty on the right that you support, you brain, but we have to promote promote democracy around the world to be the leader of the free world, or it's
just rhetoric. If we're not promoting it, if we're not defending it, we're not putting our money where our mouth is. Then this idea that we have a Reagan view of shiny city on the hill, there's a beacon of freedom, that's a leader of the free world. We've all said for decades it's not true. And I don't think any Americans should want to get to a place where we're not viewed as that rather world.
I think we're there, honestly. That's my worry. Is that that that you know again, I just I like, I know you travel all the time too, but I think we we are, we are closer to that point where people are questioning, you know about American exceptionalism, about America is the bright, shining city on the hill, just because there's no because exactly what you said, there's no there's no Trump doctrine.
It's transactional. You know.
The Reagan doctrine is very clear about fighting for you know, it's for freedom against kind of the communist menace.
That's a good thing. Uh.
But but I don't think we have a doctrine now. So I think that's that is a that is a problem, that that notion, that that inspired a lot of us. But maybe I'm thinking maybe I'm too extreme on that.
And d take what Mark and Mick just said and bring it down to a micro level to that case officer that's sitting across from that potential high value asset who is asking for you know, possible repeat your are uh being able to come to the United States once they're you know, they've done what's been asked them? Are
they going to trust? Are they going to say yes when if they're on their country is on a list of do not enters to the United States, or you know, there's question their their loyalty to us would be questioned. Why would I say yes if I was a potential high level asset to why would I trust what that case officer saying on behalf of the United States who is showing it currently that depending on what you look like or what your views are, you may not even
be able to come into this country. So that's something they need that you know, an intelligence officer would want to think about.
That's why how all this stuff ripples has like different ripples.
I mean, I wouldn't want to go to diplomatic reception right now a lot of the time explaining that the Russians and the you know, and there's like you know they're gonna give you a wink and say it kind of the same same.
You know, who are they?
Who?
I mean just.
But but but again, this does not mean that this is something that is kind of baked in stealing.
Right, No, this is a hyphe Yeah, it's a hypothetical obviously. I mean, you guys work in the CIA. For the most part, we've been pretty good to our assets. I'm assuming right, in terms of getting them out and at least I mean Afghanistan, notwithstanding that's another fucking disaster. But I'm saying CIA specifically, like you guys are doing what you can to get assets out of harm's way, and.
Even yeah, what does that mean just a c I A h. I mean I think people are I don't know if assets are quitting right now.
There's tough conversations. And then I said, kind of trace my Brescia.
You know he's having with the case ins. Maybe that's just natural, that's but that's but then the job is the case officer to manipulate the asset a little bit, say everything's fine, even if you might not believe it. Yeah, and Nick and I promised the courage like the moon, right, I'm going some courage.
I got a Curtigonish T shirt. By the way, it looks like patagony. They sent it to him.
All right, I mean if we have anything like I mean this was I enjoyed this a lot. I mean.
At the at the what they there's several groups that study freedom around the world, Freedom House, et cetera. I looked at their uh, the things that they rate. So if you're okay with it, I'll read the ten that they measure, and then you can decide how we're doing.
Erosion of free and fair elections, the concentration of power in the executive branch, the undermining of civil liberties and the rule of law, the delted littim adjation of the opposition, the use of emergencies creating crisis to justify power graphs, the erosion of independent media, the fragmentation and loss of democratic norms, legal changes that chift power but retain the appearance of democracy, waking up, institutional resilience and oversight, and
the decline and the public trust, legitimacy, and the commitment to a democratic society.
I think the case about.
Our audience can decide how we're.
Hey as of the United States. Rating on freedom House gone down. I mean this seriously, I think you know where are we on on on that list?
So I don't have the list.
I mean we could quickly, okay, Freedom House being critical or seeing that our our stock is not rising.
That's a point. Maybe all Americans should look at that, and regardless of where you sit on the political spectrum, if we're going down, we should all be like alarmed. Right, whether it's the far left or the far right doing stuff, it shouldn't matter. It should be like, wait a minute, if anything, we should be going up the list. I'm pretty sure we're not on top.
Noo, We're eighty four out of one hundred democracy yeah, well, no, eighty four out of one hundred in terms of freedom.
Yeah, another ninety three countries, so there should be.
Right, we're number hold on, I'm scrolling down where it looks like they don't even put numbers on the guys.
Hold on a second, Well he's doing that. There's a great book called How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them by Barbara F. Walter, great book that talks about this stuff as well. Okay, I actually want to get her on this on the show.
Also, Anne Applebaum wrote a book a couple of months ago, right, hypocrisy incorporated.
Yeah, right, so she might go to on this on on and she is very alarmed.
Yeah, we're about twenty fifth in the world.
We shouldn't be twenty fifth on the democracy on that rating, that's not good.
Good, we're the oldest continued democracy. That's you think this would be one thing that Americans would all get behind, like we are. We need to be the freest country in the world. It benefits everybody here. It shouldn't be a partisan thing at all, and it makes no sense at all. So maybe that would be the the kind of unifying issue of the United States is going up
¶ Freedom House checklist: signs of backsliding
that list, not doubt.
Yeah.
Yeah, last year we were three out of one hundred and hour eighty four out of one hundred. That's our rating, like eighty four percent out of one hundred.
Oh yes, that's good, like a bee solid by solid B. We want to be at A. We want to be an A plus, that's for sure.
Gods, this is awesome. We have anything left? Tell me Hit me up, Mark, how's your podcast going? Tell me about it?
Good?
Good, it's been it's been fun. It's been you know, I have to learn British humor. No, it's been it's been quite interesting and we actually made some news. A couple of weeks ago we had the former National Security Advisor on and he criticized China. And then later that or the next day a question was raised with the Prime Minister about the podcast and about beyond.
It was kind of fun, but I got to learn all.
I mean, I'm trying to learn about British politics and it's a it's good stuff.
It's called The Crisis Room. Check it out. I'll have links in the description and the show notes. Mick Malroy's got a new podcast too, called The Up in the Porch Applied Stoicism, just got video, so I'll put all the links down in the description there as well. Jason Lynes all his links are in the description too. And do us a favor. Go to our Patreon Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. You get both Eyes On and Team House episodes ad free and early and help support
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