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at patreon dot com Slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone, Welcome to another episode of Izon. I'm Andy Miilba recentlyons Dimitri Tacos, Hello, Heydeed. So today I think we've got unfortunately lots of action in the in the Middle East to talk about you want to kick off about the strike in Damascus yesterday.
Yeah, I mean everyone pretty much saw what happened already. Now, I mean Israel's kind of kind of brazen airstrike on the Iranian consulate that's our right next door of the Iranian embassy, which is also right next door to the Canadian embassy, killing seven you know IRGC. Yeah, yeah, it was Look, this was the you know, I'll jump to the chase. This was the most significant strike that the Israelis have conducted on Coods Force like ever.
The top three field commanders within Kodes Force were killed. I'll say that again, the top three field commanders. Hussein Amanulla who was who was he was chief of staff for Syria and Lebanon, and then uh Rahimi hajj Rahimi, who's a you know, to say, a Koutsforce guy is controversial. Well, Rahimi's particularly controversial because his mandate is Palestine, right, and so a lot of discussion about whether he knew about these attacks, whether he was
involved in them or not. The Israelis were convinced that that that Harmas did at least inform him inform that attacks were coming. They may not his Boa and Iran may have not realized this scale, but nevertheless soon became aware of them and reinforced them one hundred percent. So this is kind of revenge for that. And the third guy, third guy killed General Zahiti, all right,
The Israelis called him Madabi. He's actually he's a former head of or Kuod's force in Syria and Lebanon, and he is he's actually rumored to be Cannee's successor. Cornee is a Cala, the head of Kotz force, so very very significant. I'll pause there, guys to see if you have any questions. Yeah, I was gonna sorry to drag you back to the beginning, but for those who don't know, can you give a little background on what Kud's force is? Yeah? Absolutely, And you know this term gets
used a lot, so look just by way of creds. Okay, this doesn't make me an expert, but I'm one of probably one of the few US military guys I would venture perhaps the only one since aside from the hostages, who spent time in an Iranian jail. Okay, and now we've got to qualify that very brief period of time being questioned by the Revolutionary Guard as they were called then back soon after when the eleven years after the revolution, the beginning of the war with Iran, I was in Tehran, taken off
a bus and questioned by them. Again, that doesn't make me an expert, but it does it removes any any reservations that may have about watching the organization they are, uh, because many other people at the time were disappearing. Anyway, cut to the chase, the the Revolutionary Guards, uh, the Iranian Revolutory Guards Court to give it its full title. You hear it referred to as the IRGC. I think of them as kind of, you
know, the uh, the Islamic Revolutions version of the Republican Guard. UH. You know, the every revolution has a small group of the Jacobins, and the French revolution a small group of activists, and the Revolutionary Guard with that, and they then became the de facto administration regime of Iran, backing up Supreme Leader Ali Komeni, who became the Supreme Leader in nineteen eighty nine.
So you see now, you know a lot of these guys are kind of the same age as me and Jason, you know, old enough to be D's grandfather. They but they were students, you know in the seventies, back in late seventies, you know, you name it. Utman imagad Hussein in ceremony starts trying to remember his name, all of these guys,
and now they're at the top of the Iranian ranks structure. Now, kots Force is kind of a subdivision of the ILGC, and they are focused, they are you know, they well, they've been classified as a terrorist organization by the US State Department with good reason. But kots Force is responsible for the Iranian regimes operations overseas, which they conduct primarily through the use of proxies such as his Bala, such as quite improbably Hamas and probably because her Masses
of course a Sunni organization. But the Ranians who are happy to hold their nose in this case and support her Maas and then subsequently leave them out to drive because he Mars is doing their bidding and as long as it is Sunni Arabs and Israeli's being killed, this all plays very well to the Iranians. But now they've lost three of the top guys, they have to take action, and you know, and this is this is what is caused incantscern obviously
within Israel. Now this comes amidst massive demonstrations against Netan Nyahu. It is many fail a A well they I mean, it's hard to deny it's an escalation. Many feel that there are political motives for this escalation that it is you know that that Netanyahu, if you can really really solidify or continue down this polarization path and and continue this campaign, rally the right behind him, get the patriotic and and and and kind of the Jewish vote, he will
take this, you know, to the hilt. And that is what's worrying the vast majority of Israelis right now who don't feel that this is the ticket that they bought when they when they subscribe to the war on Hamas over to you back over to you guys anything. Yeah. So, like my understanding is like Koot's force is basically like an hiergy sees how Iran can kind of project every power because like they don't really have a military that's strong enough.
That's right, that's right, and and it's masterful because they are you know, think of all the bumbling efforts we make to to build advisor type units, right both in the Army and the US Marine Corps A very ad hoc group of people, and it's not considered a very you know, one of the things we've always struggled with conventional forces is they want to operate as battalions
and brigades and divisions, but not training foreign indigenous troops. That is so unsexy, right, But that that is the core of gray zone operations. I'm using that term, I know, but that is the that's conflict. Everyone uses proxy. Everyone's doing it, you know, and we should get on board. The Mozart group was a perfect opportunity, guys, you all missed it. But so COODS Force are very adept at getting at working with prozis. You know, they live they live in the country, or they
work with they work closely with them. They I'm not saying for a moment that they identify with them. They use them here there are tools, but they do it very well, very well indeed. And so with just a small, relatively small group of people, you know, Coods Force, just a few thousand guys can conduct operations that are having a catastrophic not a catstrophic,
but a global effect. Think about what the hoho this are doing that we've talked about here Mars is the least capable of all of kusforce's proxies. His Bolla is the most capable. And that is what everyone is worried about now, because Iran won't declare or in Israel, Iran's not going to strike back in the same way. But using his bolla, Iran certainly has the ability to inflict serious damage on Israel. And it's a question of math.
It's a question of math, precision fires. His bolla has an arsenal now many times the size of the one that it had in two thousand and six, and even then was able to overwhelm Iron Dome. Paul's there to see if you guys have any questions. It's a really, it's a really. This is a very interesting, important and quite scary flectioning point. And so kods is uh and this is my own ignorance. Has always been a hands
off force, or have they ever have been indirect? Well? They combat, well, they they are occasionally involved in in I mean they are involved, you know, I mean they absolutely they you know, they don't have this, they don't have this artificial division between advice and assist and a company, right, No, of course, I mean they but but the point is they don't need to. They do what they need to do to set
the example, to rally support. I'll give you an example, you know, for for instance, in Gaza. In Gaza, Israeli intelligence, not officially, but Israeli intelligence claims that they're picking up Farci in Gaza, a Kud's Force guy helping direct Hamas operations, all right, and that is the sort of help that they will give, you know, right up to yeah, right up to the X. But but the point is they they there's always and you know this of course, Jason, there's always kind of a
it always they always give Iran deplausible deniability, right, and that is their strength, you know. I mean it's a Koo's Force is a masterful organization in that sense. It is a it's very competent, very efficient. They have their fuck up, some quite hilarious fuck ups at times, but for the most part they they mean business and they do business, you know. And this is a very rare successful strike because they are very good at field craft. By the way, just getting used from the Israelis, and I
think this was reported on US media. Hassein Yusuf, who's a senior has Boa official, also on the strike. So you've got guys and and an official from p I J and SoJ Palestinian Islamic TEA hot who are involved in the fighting in Gaza in support of Hamas. So that problem that strike.
I'm going to go out on a limon say that those names were known before that, uh that was carried out or maybe like uh, you know, I'm sure some of them at least, but I'm going to eventually say given the names and the stature that it was known, all the names on that target were known. Yeah. Absolutely, the I mean these guys, these guys would have been top of the target list. I mean they I'm sure.
I'm sure they're on their own target list too, and and so and And that's a really good point, Jason, because you know how it is when something happens and assumes that the approximate cause is something that happened right before that. I'll give you the case in point. All right, So the the destruction there was a drone attack on a lap you know, two days
ago, and then right after this the strike on Damascus. Well, you don't throw together strikes that easily, you know, I mean, this had been planned and they were just waiting for for a for a reason, and the reason was probably as you know, the time, location, the trigger, which had nothing to do with retaliation for any other event. How often do you get these seven individuals in a room. It would have been a high level decision obviously, but it just seemed probably like too juicy a target
to pass up. Because now you know, as we've all seen these targeted killings, they they rarely have a good effect. It's a long time, like we all we all feel good, Oh great, but you name it, you know, yeah, Like why is it followed by someone worse? What is the blow at look like? Now? Like after these guys have been taken out and stuff like that, Like what's a response from Iran? Look like? Is it just through Azbola? Like, yeah, I would guess the res I mean, first of all, there has to be a
response. Two, yes, his bolla because but it won't just be his Bala. They will probably be renewed drone attacks on southern Israel from the hohofies. But certainly, Yeah, this is what would be interesting is to know what the discussion is that is taking place now between ISRAELA and Kromani. You know, Inzraela. By the way, in Israela Hassan Israela is the head of Lebanese Hezbala. And you know this, this warrants a whole show by
itself. But he bottom line is Nisralla is he's not a Lebanese patriot, but he's not certainly not an Iranian stooge either. He is about himself and about Lebanese has Boller. And the problem within cycling a war with Israel is that it sets him back in time, right. He's he's got a plan, and his plan is that, you know, the state of Lebanon becomes essentially his Boller state, and he's he's a long way along that path.
We've talked about this when you look at members of the you know, the cabinet there, you look at the problems the militaries having with his Boller infiltration, all of these things. So he's almost there. He has built up
his arsenal, which was devastated in the two thousand and six award. He's he's built it up to a point where yeah, it you know, when we talk existential threat and very nearly existential threat, I mean not existential, but can can certainly has has the capability to inflict tens of thousands of casualties on the Israeli population. But to do so, yes, he will become
Abal hero, but his bolla will take a schwacking. The Israelis were stumbling sometimes, who have been stumbling when it comes to targeting and gaza, but they have everything in Lebanon dialed in. They've had forty years literally to do this all right. They cannot hit all the time, they don't have enough ammunition to hit all the targets, but they all try, and that is what That'zrola knows. And the backlash will probably go against his bolla, and
so he's walking a fine line. He wants, you know, he senses that the you know, the Arab streets, but you know, on the Shea side, everyone is really outraged. This this level of anger in the Arab world. I don't we haven't seen it in our lifetimes, and it's easy to overlook it from where we are, but it is, it is. It has gathered a momentum that is quite frightening, and Azraela realizes that. So now he's caught and the Israelis have just pushed the Iranians right into
kind of openly having to to demand retribution. So everything seems set for his balla strike into Israel. I'll pause that from him. Given everything you just said, do you think there's a it's plausible that Esrala would say no that you know he's told, hey, we need you know. That's that's the ten million dollar question, Jason. And the answer is no. One knows,
not even you know. If you talk to Israeli intelligence guys who have kind of who have lived in israela for the entire careers, and there are guys like that and women, and they will tell you they don't know. You know he is and Osralla is. He's a very very smart guy. But he also plays his cards quite close to his chest. That's why he's still alive. We don't know, we don't know. And everyone since this kicked off, I say everyone, but you know, all the pundits have
been asking will he say no to Iran? Does he have enough laster power confidence by himself to do so? And we will see and so you know, things go ahead. A number of other things are taking place too. This morning there was an attack on well, first of all, you know, relations between Israel and the United States are the worst that they have ever
been. Again, you know, I stick to facts on this show that for the first time ever, Guy's polls are showing the US population public disagree with with what's something that Israelis are doing foreign policy, how they're headling Gaza all right, and you know there's Netna who's snubs to the president are Netna who is banking on Trump victory. But then Trump the other day said, hey, Israel just needs to finish this. You know, he seemed impatient.
Of course he is. The Republicans don't understand. I mean, the Republicans don't want this probably going on either. My point is that everyone realized that this is severely damaging to the US prestige or view in the world. And we don't have a lot of waks to depend on right now, and we're being dragged into the toilet. That's one argument, but it's hard to
argue against, to be honest with you. So what I wanted to do, you know, and then the well, but at the same time, at the same time, we're giving them, you know, eighteen billion dollars in military aid. Yeah, what's it, three point six billion dollars a year? You know, and no, but they're given like the new Aid package, right of ag Yeah, absolutely, yeah, And you know the point is, but we have been giving them three point you know, billions
of dollars every year. And there was a very funny Saturday Night Live sketch in Israel. They've got that version of Saturday Night Live where you know, they've got this guy playing Net and Yahoo and he's like, no, tell the goings to fuck off, you know, tell them, you know, tell them to take that three you know, three point six billion dollars and shove it up their ass. You know. So this was kind of a realization among the segment of the Israeli population who have close ties with the United
States, who we don't want to alienate the United States. We feel more in ni kin with the United States and with Israel. And then you get this world food kitchen striker case seven killed US, Canada, Australia, Poland, and the United Kingdom aside from the usual Palestinians. All right, whichever way you look at it, his, you know, his his. What the news is reporting that the convoy, uh, give me a second, that it was that it was coordinated, that the yep, the coordinates were
set in blah blah blah blah, but it was still struck. He is really said that they were investigating. Initial they said that it was operating outside curfew in an area, not coordinated. But now they apparently are calling to the ladiest yeah, admitting that yes, it was coordinated. So so here's another a potential rift between the US and Israel. You know, I mean, none of us like the thought that Israel or any country can kill our
citizens without without even asking. You know, I know that sounds ridiculous, but I mean because they'd ask me. They said, no, you fucking cannot kill He's working for the World Food Kitchen. By the way, you know, another inside I have here is having having driven you know, food humanitarian assistance under bombardiment for the World Food Kitchen. Obviously, I'm not completely
unbiased in this in this story. Any any questions on that, I mean, like, I think it's okay to not be be a little biased because they killed fucking aid workers. They didn't kill like you know, hamask guys hiding in in a hospital that like, you know, whether it's what they do nor it was aid workers. It was clearly marked, its coordinated. What do we don't. I mean, you know, it's supposed to be
the best military in the world. I get it's war and it's a fucking disaster and it's mayhem and it's chaos, but like, do they even give a shit about how like the world honestly the United States perceives them or they're just gonna keep doing like what they're gonna do and that's that. Yeah,
I'm gonna ask you your question. D just very quick. Just's some more stuff coming in sure, So the uh, despite despite this is coming from the World Food Kitchen Aaron gole Ceo, despite coordinating movements for the IDEF, the convoy was hit at as it was leaving Daro Bala Warehouse, where the team had unloaded more than one hundred tons of humanitarian food eight Borti Gaza on maritime route. Reports saw that it was hit actually three times from aeron Gol.
This is not only attack against World Food Kitchen, attack on manager and organizations. Yeah, blah blah, Hey three times. What happened? They didn't get it right the first two. I don't know who knows where Anyway, they you know, we'll see. I'm not I'm not dismissing I'm saying, this is yeah, this is this is serious. It seems almost as though net Yahoo is not net Yahoo is doing but Bridge burning things right, And if you've seen the movie Wag the Dog, you might be thinking along
those lines. It's quite concerning, Well, what's that, what's what's the play, like, what's the strategy in doing that? To not have any allies left? Oh no, no, no to to net Yahoo. This all makes this, this all makes perfect sense. By the way, it's really has is right in if you mentioned they haven't accept their responsibility for the Damascus sign, but it you know, it does, it does make sense.
So you think about it. You push Iran into war, you recover Gaza right for the state of Israel, which is what which is what Netnia who's base, is pushing for, to colonize Gaza and make it part of Israel. You know, that's that's the dog whistle piece you know in the background here, but it's it's quite openly discussed among the members of our of the right wing in Israel. So he's going to satisfy the Israeli extremists, the ultra Orthodox, who are also by the way, you know, calling
on him to destroy our AXA and rebuild the temple. You know, I mean, I'm wondering whether this is gonna the Al Jorthodox who don't fight either exactly, and that is also causing internal problems in Israel. They call you know, they they are they're good at beating up or shooting, you know. Reportedly, this is the argument, okay, from from many in Israel. Hey, these guys push us to the brink of war. They cause problems with the Palestinians, and yet they don't have to deal with the consequences
because they don't have to serve. And Netna, who has fought against removing that exemption, the Supreme Court is you know, has said that the exemption is no longer valid. So Netnar, who is dragging his feet on how to implement this, saying it's going to take a decade to bring these guys
into the military. So you can see how this resentment is building. But they are who's base and political survival was very very important to him, and and and so dividing the world in this way in a way that it hasn't been divided since the early eighties over Israel, and as far worse than it was in the early eighties. Is it makes perfect sense to him. He's driving away friendly you know, I mean moderate friendly Arab countries such as Jordan.
He's driving, I mean he is. He has antagonized the Arab street beyond all measure. So I think, I think, you know, the real question here is what else could he have done? What else could he? And I you know, I've got some thoughts here, And bear in mind, my thoughts are not from an armchair, you know. I've I've had to deal with these problems for real. And you know, there's a
number of reasons why so many civilians are going to be killed. Underlying it all, frankly, is is a I mean, in some cases it's explicit, you know, by you will protect your soldiers' lives at all costs, and implicit to that on then Neva stated in an order, is if that means a choice between killing many Palasilian civilians or having your own soldiers killed,
then that's not a choice, you know. And so a lot of the things that that we do in the in the US, to do with proportionality, or to do with identification, of discrimination, identification, all these things that we're familiar with are not the norm now they use these terms, and I'll give you an example. Have how it goes awry. They do collateral damage assessments. But here is how it's done. First of all, their intelligence within Gaza is not that it is not that good, and it's not
a fault of Israeli's intelligence. It's just Tomas. It's got really fucking good at operating without giving their presence away. Okay, So a lot of the intel they're getting is based on drone observations and it's fleeting intelligence. So they feel like they have to make a decision very quickly, and so they do, and they always err on the side of caution for themselves or their forces.
They will and so one of the problems here is that the Israeli spokesman can say, pro former, Hey, here's what we're doing, and it is true, and we have people, you know, and a guy like a guy I have great respect for. John Spencer, the Irregular Warfare Institute, goes to Israel, gets their brief, comes back, writes an article in Newsweek, saying there's no army in the world takes so many measures to prevent civilian casualties. Well, John is a great guy. The greatest respect
for him, But that is simply not true. John didn't of course didn't lie, but he made a lot of statements without really looking behind. And I'll give you examples. Okay, Collateral damage assessments are based on their intel, but their intail is not good and they're under and again, you know, the arbiter is always if you don't make this strike or it Israeli forces risk raised. Okay, that is it's it's It doesn't get into detailed proportionality.
This isn't me just shooting. And I'm getting this and from guys I've spoken to, and in fact it's in the papers in Israel too. So here's some quotes, all right from Israeli soldiers. In practice, the terrorist is anyone the IDF has killed in the areas in which its forces operate, says an officer who served in Gaza. The feeling we had was there wasn't there aren't aren't any rules of engagement there. Another soldier says, okay,
so one of the battles, what's the fighting looking like in Gaza? I mentioned the other day they're taking lower casualties than we did in a Flujah. Good for them, except that they're causing many, many thousands times, and civilian counterpeace that we cause in Fallujah, because in Fallujah we took a little bit more risk because we're Americans. We may call it what you were try. Even if you disagree with it, I'm proud of the fact that we
risked our own lives to save civilians. There is no such fault within the Israeli military, and it's very, very firmly rooted in their belief. You know that the constant belief that Israel under existential threat. Okay, those are those are kind of the facts. And you know, if anyone wants to challenge me, and there's okay, you know, by all means, please do, please do. But remember three Israeli hostages were killed. All right, they were shot. They were shot. They weren't killed in their strike.
They were shot by Israelis. Even after here's what happened, and this kind of day. This isn't tearing open the people who did this. It's explaining why. The problem is a policy, it's not individual actions. So when these three terrats, these three hostages were killed, a drone was sent inside the building. But the Israelis having great success using drones inside buildings. The drone flew into the bill. Oh no shit, sorry, there was
a dog. They sent in a dog, and the dogs all have GoPros, and the dog picks up these three Israeli hostages and they don't know the dog has go pro but they're yelling in Israeli and the terrorists. There's coupled Terrists in there, a couple of wounded. Once the Israelis blow destroyed their house, they say, and who I don't disbelieve them. You know, the soldiers involved said they didn't check the go pro camera the hostage. Ah, excuse me, is a go pro camera live feed or no? No,
no, it's not live feeds? All right? But anyway, so the hostages, they're not killed in the house destruction, They get on the street. Two are subsequently shot by Israelis, and now it gets really bad. The third one runs back into our house. Israeli soldiers follow him in and shoot him there close range. So I'm like, okay, you know, think about all think about all the measures here that you know that we know rules of engagement that would have prevented that happening. So when the Israelis
said, hey, these guys weren't following policy it's hard. It's hard to understand how so many guys didn't follow policy. And the soldiers involved us saying that they were told to shoot anything that came into the area, and when you look at what happened, it's hard to believe. It's hard not to believe them, Okay, and then you know other soldiers are saying, yeah,
we had free fire zones. Whenever we set up a like a you know, biboac air, I mean not a like we went firm, but even moving during the day, we were told shoot anything that came into our zone. We gave civilians two weeks to move, and if they didn't move, you know, that's they're fair game. So now there's so many things that interfere with civilians being able to move in that environment. The messaging wasn't
clear. The Israeli said they use roof knocking, which means firing a small caliber I mean a smaller carab caliber bomb into the roof or rocket into the roof before you bomb the building. But you know, there's a problem, there's a problem with communicaticating with lethal force, all right, It's not always clearly a parent. If you're in a building and the roof gets hit, you may probably just think, Wow, that was a close one. You don't think, hey, this was a very kind warning that I'm about to
be incinerated. If I don't get out of this building, you have to, you know. I mean, it's it's almost as though they've got this, Okay, we're going to go through this. The because their intelligence is not good. They can't make good estimates of proportionality because they don't know the value of the units or organizations they're going after. So you know, there's a lot of things wrong with what is being said about about or about that
procedures. And then and then as the shooting their own hostages is concerned, you would think that that would cause them to reframe everything, but it hasn't because again, there is this ethos. I mean, there's no doubt there's revenge underlying this, but that speculation I I the it has got to be revenge in the back of the human beings involved in this. And this is
why leadership is so important. But if you had leaders I'm not saying this is happening, but it has happened the US military, if you have leaders who are reconciled just saying hey, whatever. Man, you know, if you feel at risk, then by all means. And so when you get a case like the humanitarian convoy that was fired on and a hundred killed, the Israeli say only percentage of the proportion of those were killed by the Israelis,
but the hospitals saying that at large. But anyway, bottom line is definitely number of incidents of people lining up for food being shot by Israeli soldiers. In every case their answer has been I felt threatened, all right, and it seems once you uttered those magic words or bets are off and we went through the stage too, So we can't feel too you know, not
as extremely as this obviously. I mean, can you imagine if we had caused thirty one thousand civilians death in any operation, we would be facing criminal charges. Frankly, but yeah, I represent you know, look, I understand this is a brutal dilemma. But I also, speaking as someone who has fought house to house and has planned urban operations, I oppose to that. Guys, if you guse you goun any questions, now, man, you're the of the three of us, you're the u, the one with
the most expertise on this. So I'm I'm listening. I'm learning it as well too. I'm sure we're going to hear about it in the comments, but I don't worry about the comments. Were talking the truth exactly. So yeah, I'm learning we don't have we don't have a dog in this fight. Like I don't at least like to be completely honest. I mean, I understand that Israel needs to like smoke Commas. People like Commas leadership. I think they should have done it the wrong, the different way instead of
sending like divisions. All right, I'll give you another example. Okay, so in there and and look, I I was a fast support coordinator by military occupational speciality. And you know, again that doesn't make me not bragging. No, I'm just saying because I want to preempt. You know, they're our favorite contributors who piland and call me an idiot again or I'm a
Roan. But I do know what I'm talking about. And you know the point is that, for instance, when what the Israelis are doing, they're saying it is are legitimate targets because Hamas is operating out of you know, this building, But the building is an apartment block. The Hamas are operating out of one or two apartments. This is a this is a real case. By the way, this was oh crap, doesn't matter, I'll get back to it. It was a building that was destroyed in one so they'll
destroy the whole building. And if they're warning the occupants of that building by faring into the roof, you can see the problem here. And if you've got an apartment blanc and people are worried about walking on the streets because they're free you know, free fire zones, it gets very difficult to be a civilian. Right, it can't come out in the streets. But if you
say in the building, you're gonna get killed. So yeah, you know you can say, well netna Hu meanwhile saying Israel has the most moral army in the world. That may be no one's you know, not making comments about the morality of the individual soldier. I'm saying that they that that the way things are set up, the policy that procedures are that their customs are such that nothing other than massive civilian casualties could be anticipated. Yeah, so
it's fucked, is what. That's the That's what we've realized. I mean, like, when does it end? Because they're going to go into office wreck and shape like there too. So where do all those civilians that move moved away from Gaza City? Where do they go? What's the move? Doesn't matter to them? Doesn't seem like it From an idiot like me, it doesn't seem like it. Yeah, well that's a it's just hard to see a good outcome or a peaceful outcome to this now, DM and the
incidents of the last the attacks and Damascus. Look, I know, I mean, we went through this discussion, solmony. This somony was one of my bags, baby. You know when I was I wore uniform. I was delighted as a human being to see him dead. But I was concerned that it was not part of a synchronized campaign, all right, and I suspect that it may not have been. And the same thing here. Okay, If the Israelis have something lined up to mitigate the backlash, that's good.
If they don't, then the jury's out whether this was a good move. Right. But there's no way to your point about to your point about Rafa, this is a This is as near a red line as I can see between the United States and Israel. All Right. There was a point where Israel might have got away with saying, hey, look we'll take care of the civilian population, will put them on the beach, blah blah blah.
But after that, you know, now it seems as though with US pols swinging against Israel's actions, death of US citizens in the last twenty four hours is not likely to help that. I would say that the administration's really going to this today, draw a hard line on Rafa, on going into Rafa, because that Netnya who has promised promised the Israeli people that that's exactly
what they are, that's what we're doing, you know. So you know, I guess to kind of summarize what, you know, what I've been talking about the problem is that frankly, the IDEAF is not taking the trouble to distinguish between civilians and militants in Gaza. You know, the IDF would argue, we just don't have time to take you know, we don't. We can't do any more than we're doing because it's going to put us in
danger. You know, the same time Israel's expanding it's you know, during your Daza operation, because at the beginning it had very few real targets. They were all old as you can imagine, they hadn't been tracking commas. Well now they've got hundreds of targets. But you know how it is, and you know, people move all the time, and they're dropping dumb two thousand bombs capable you know, is every a nose or not even know people
killing? That's capable of killing wounding people more than a thousand feet away from the impact, right CP is what one thousand feet for two thousand It doesn't matter, you know, I mean it's so how can you possibly say that when you're dropping dumb bombs in an environment like that, after taking precautions like roof knocking or dropping leaflets, and expecting people to move in that environment,
how can you really expect civilian casualties to be lower? Also, what I worry about a little bit is like, you know, like we've discussed in other other episodes, you know, the Iranian the Cuds force proxies all over the Middle East, whether they're in Iraq or Syria or wherever are. You know, kind of we're operating relatively independently, and I don't really see them
differentiating Israel and America for the most part, generally. So like I see that there is you know, risk to American personnel at bases, whether it's bag that airport or the embassy or whatever, or Tower twenty two or any of the other bases we have across the region. So what happens if we get hit again and we lose a couple of servicemen again, we're brought back into it, we like in a more kinetic way, like we need to step up and show like, hey, you don't do that. Here's a
peep whack. Yeah, that's what I worry about. I know Iran doesn't want to drag Israel or the United States a full fledged war because like their military is not great. I mean, that's why they use the cuts for so much. It's because it's projecting. They don't want to go to to you know, state on state war. This strike against Coots Force officers in that sense was very deliberately, very deliberately designed to give them no choice.
But you know, Sonahu, whatever you may say is after escalation and and there's something else you know this remember I talked about the Hannibal directive last episode or two episodes ago. You know, there's these these things going on, things going on within the military. That suggests that, you know, brigade and battalion commanders are making their own decisions on rules of engagement. In fact,
that is the overwhelming feedback I'm getting. You know, I spoke to one battalion that moved in, you know, moved up north on the seventh October, and they were weapons tight, you know, usual rules of engagement. And another battalion moved in after them, and they they were reconnaissance by fire. They were you know, they were every morning and every evening.
They would fire the morning and evening hate as it used to be called in the First World War, into the villages on the Lebanese side, and that was sanctioned by their commanders, you know. And this is within the same organization. There is no there doesn't appear to be any central rules of engagement. So the Hannibal doctrine was directive, was an official thing that authorized it's
really soldiers to risk the lives of hostages in order to free them. In other words, you know, knowing what lay in store for them, you could accept a higher level of risk. Okay, common sense, right. It has been interpreted apparently as me, you can kill hostages. Audio own soldiers to prevent them being kept health captives. Okay, and that was the
Hannibal doctrine. There are incidents where soldiers are claiming that the Hannibal doctrine has been called by battalion brigade commanders and then just you know, I guess there's
a lot of these code red type things. There's another thing called the Dahia Doctrine, which was formulated in the two thousand and six eleven and more apologies that here, so so its main tendid it is that disproportioned attacks, including against civilian structures and infrastructure, are authorized, you know, for it for achieving the end, and that that is may well be what's that play here?
Right? Yeah, I don't know, I don't know how like you could be you could justify this more and more as like even the United States government, like it's like, dude, we I mean, there's only so much we could do, right, And it's not even dividing the world. I mean, the world's pretty much on one side of this for the most
part. You know, I think you know, in terms of states, you know, like countries, you know that everyone's pretty much saying, hey, guys, let's chill out a little bit and go back to what you're good at, which is assassinating top level people, the odd nuclear scientists, you know what I mean, Like, let's just do that. Yeah. You know Netna, who actually has not been a Hawk in the past.
He's he's a little like he's gonna love this analogy in Israela in the sense he knows how to walk the line right, you know, get everyone fired up, but avoid because he knows he's a survivalist. He knows that in trench conflicts like Lebanon lead to the end of careers. And I mean his career is undoubtedly over. The question is when, and he wants his perhaps he wants his career to end the other side of a war a major wall, because that it will extend, you know, that's the argument against him.
So it's no longer at that point longevity. It's legacy yeah yeah, or not even legacy prison, just preservation of power. Yeah. He's a political creature, you know, and he he cut his teeth in the talk in the uh reality not reality TV that you know, the talk show circuit here in the United States in the in the in the late seventies and eighties,
that's what made him. Wow. Yeah, I mean legacy hunting or political preservation at the expense of tens of thousands civilians and uh even Israeli soldiers, and you know, just human death and destruction kind of makes you fucking evil in my opinion. That's completely my opinion. If you like bb Netanya who congratulations, I don't. I think he's a fucking rat. Yeah. I I I stay facts, you know, and I do express opinions, of course, otherwise I'd be very boring. But yeah, I am concerned.
I'm concerned for is wrong, concerned for them, beliast, I'm concerned for the world. I'm very concerned for the United States most of all, obviously right now, and I think it's important for everyone everyone watching remember that never might I'm not even going to go down that village. So anyway, hey, hey, here's another thing on rules of engagement. Okay, that that wasn't you know, John Spencer didn't mention the Newsweek article. Do really
go into every building shooting for the most part? All right, And that is you know, that's kind of the s op in Gaza. I'm not making a comment on right or wrong. I'm just saying you know that leads not just a huge enormous ammunition consumption, which they don't have a problem with when it comes to small arms, because you know, they obviously religioustics bylines.
But but but two, you know that is something reconnaissance by fire, as it were, as something that we are never authorized to do in the US, or seldom authorized to do, certainly not in those environments. But that is that, you know. I look, frankly, most civilians, vast majority civilians are killed by artillery, you know, to kill fire sentence, relatively relatively few. Still, hundreds thousands probably killed by direct fire. But so so all of this, all of this is the problem. It's
not particular prostigures. It's the kind of the underlying culture. I think. The best way to put this, I know I've brought us near and the end. No, that was perfect, No, I was I was great. I think I think it's tough. Man. I don't know, I don't know what we should say to ye. No, no, man, I'm you know me. I like to learn. So I had to sit back on this one and just listen and ask my little questions. And I
appreciate it. That's what I do every episode, So, you know, just for those interested in how, you know, how the what the fighting looks like in Gaza, I mentioned the Israeli casualties being remarkably low. You know, it's in the two hundred and I think fifties in those sixties. And you know, six months of six months, I'm sorry, forty five months of fighting. That's extraordinarily low. And you know, one of the
side we've talked about fires. But after they have plasted in an area, then they'll send in their special operations guys who will seize a foothold, kind of a bridgehead or you know, they're sending drones dogs first. Then they'll send us their special abrations forces to to hold a block, and only then will they send in their conventional forces. And then it's a very very slow
movement. I've been told, you know, a couple hundred yards a day, So you see, it's a very cautious, very deliberate move that's probably how they're saving their own casualties. Ballpark, Andy, how many Hamas fighters are there, like actually fighting every day? Yeah, that's a good question, so as I haven't seen that anywhere. Yeah, so the Israeli say twenty to thirty thousand at the beginning. They say, Now, remember last
week I said fourteen to fifteen thousand they're claiming killed. When you add out the battalions that they say they've killed, it's fourteen fifteen thousand guys. Looking at Hamas's order of battle. Now Israel's saying they've killed nine thousand Hermas operatives. Coincidentally, exactly the number of military age males killed reported dead. Right, so hard to tell, really hard to tell. No one can, No one can tell you how many battalions are left in Rafa. Anyone who
says they can is full of shit. I mean, even if we had the best intel in the wall. You know, you're talking about small groups of guys and all the engagements. There are small groups, you know, running around through tunnels in a densely, densely populated area. How can you possibly make a coherent estimate of how many people are there? I mean, how many fighters are that all alone form them into battalions. It's it's ridiculously
unrealistic. And as I've mentioned, even if you ignore the figures are Western intelligence reports, the UK in particular. I don't want to burn him, but he's he's particularly well positioned to know about this is saying that Israeli reports of Hamas casualties are very much over the mark. So there's very few silver linings. As we talked about, even if hermask was completely obliterated, there are thousands and thousands of kids who have seen their families right. There is
no endgame here. Let's know, would you be happy the rest of your life in your family? I mean just fucking go up and smoke. Would you say, yeah, hey, oh I want to be secular and democratic? Oh yeah, that's what I want to do. If revenge is the one thing that life offered you, that's what you would do. And anyone you know out there who thinks they're different, I would love to hear from them. Yeah. It's like a zenous person in the fucking world. All
right. That's on that happy note. On that happy note. Soon, probably not next week, because something exciting will show up soon. We're going to talk about Taiwan guys. And this is the opportunity for Dee to say what was the phrase, uh, non consensual unification, which is it's my favorite favorite movies weners. But I know it's gonna be a serious comment. I just wanted to get that out of the way. Yeah, all right, all right, don't forget to like and subscribe if you're listening to us
on Audio rate and review at five stars. Check out Andy's book, check out Andy's Twitter. All the links will be in a description below. Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse is the best way to support these shows. You get ad free audio, you could ask questions if you have any, even to eyes on. We will get to them, I promise you. And it's just the best way to support the show because YouTube is not awesome right now. Thank you, thanks guys. Yeah, totally