Does the U.S. Jump Into War? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS - podcast episode cover

Does the U.S. Jump Into War? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Jun 20, 202553 min
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Episode description

In this conversation, Dee and Jonathan W. Hackett discuss the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, the implications of U.S. military involvement, and the historical context of these geopolitical dynamics. They explore the potential outcomes of military action, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the human cost of war. The discussion emphasizes the need for a thoughtful approach to foreign policy that considers the long-term consequences of intervention in the region.
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00:00 Introduction 
01:42 Escalation in the Middle East
06:26 Historical Context of U.S.-Iran Relations
10:22 The Dynamics of Resistance in Iran
12:38 Potential Outcomes of Conflict
20:12 The Role of Foreign Intervention
26:15 Future Relations with Iran
27:57 Navigating Complex Geopolitics
29:42 The Human Cost of Conflict
32:09 The Cycle of Violence and Resistance
36:36 The Consequences of Short-Sighted Policies
40:27 The Role of Leadership in Global Affairs
44:52 The Future of Iran and Regional Stability

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Transcript

Introduction

Speaker 1

I'd be more concerned about how the US gets further pulled into the conflict than about specifically what Iran does in reaction to it, because the regime is very weak. It has been weak even before this, It's been weakened for years. So their ability to actually conduct an offense against the United States is pretty low, even against like Bahram where we have fifth Fleet, or in Katar where we have the Air Force, or you know, Afcent, but it'd be very tough for them to kind of have

a sustained campaign against those. They only have two thousand missiles, so they've already fired about thirty to fifty percent of them. So I mean, you've got a Swan song there at the end where they can launch the rest, but then then what right. But I'd be more concerned about, Okay, the US goes in there kind of like operational Anaconda in Afghanistan. We went in there and we had executed a flawless invasion, did what we wanted to do in

a few weeks, and we stayed for twenty years. And that's that's more concerning to me, because that is more likely because it's easy for us to get wrapped up, you know, bit by bit by bit pulled into this thing, and now you're in a position that you can't get out of.

Speaker 2

Everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics, especially one today with Jonathan Hackett. John did a great, great interview on the Team House where we talked a bit, not a bit, a good amount about his uh career in the Marines. MARSK. I mean, you definitely did have a very interesting career, dude, Like you know, you worked at the NSA. D I A like, it doesn't seem like a prototypical enlisted Marines career. I would say, definitely.

Speaker 1

Definitely.

Speaker 2

Uh so, yeah, I definitely. I'm recommending everybody go check that out. I'll put the link in the description too,

Escalation in the Middle East

for for that, for that episode, for your books too. All the links will be in the scripture. If you want to find Jonathan, the links are in the description. Do not ask me, please, it's in the description because people like to ask. Even though I put all the links in the description. Today's gonna be a little bit different. We're gonna talk more about what's going on obviously in the world. A lot cooking as usual. It's been about a week, I would say about a week right since

Israel started bombing Iran and Iran's nuclear facilities. They're nuclear scientists, their IRGC guys, and shockingly, which I'm saying that sarcastically, they're trying to bring us into it. I think we've all seen like the build up of our own you know, a ton of tankers heading towards the Middle East. F twenty two's you know, landing in the UK. I think getting ready to go to the Middle East. The nimits like Carrier made it like we're stacking up a ton

of equipment in and around that area. Give me your like, what you're thinking and what you're tracking.

Speaker 1

Well. A really interesting indicator of what's going on in

the US side is pizza sales in DC. If you look at pizza sales outside of the Pentagon, they're like five times hired and usual even at meal time, which is very similar to nineteen ninety one, nineteen ninety when we're doing more plans for the aerial campaign in Iraq for the first gol War, there was a similar pizza drive that actually people did a lot of analysis on and saw, you know, there's more going on than usual, more than the regular just advising the president on options.

There's an NSC meeting this afternoon where they're going to probably present him with a menu of options. But I would I would imagine that it's not just options they're presenting. They've already got packages in place that once he chooses one of those options, if he does, it would be ready to launch instantly. Even Netanyahu said, you know, he made some light of it on I think it was Twitter about the Iranians will see something amazing this weekend,

you know, and kind of like bringing that up. So whether it's Israel doing something or the US doing something, whether that's Kamani being assassinated, or US using a GBU fifty seven on ford aw, maybe something, it might be a third thing that we are just not aware of could happen. My thought is, what if Comani is not even in Iran? What if he's in Russia right now, protected?

And how does that change Israel's calculus on that threat, because without consummating the threat, it's kind of meaningless, especially if they're they're waving in about the way that they are today on the media.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean it was super interesting the last couple of days, super interesting and also scary and frustrating because you did see Nan Yahu going around doing their rounds like American media, like he was on Fox News with Brett Baer and it was like a lah fucking two thousand and fucking two when we're like gearing up for Iraq, and you know, even in Bbe's speech right after they started hitting it Iran, it was they're a year away, Like we've heard it year away, year away for so long.

And I understand they've enriched a certain amount and they need to weaponize it and that takes time. But again, it wasn't like they have three or four nukes sitting around pointed at Israel on one of those ballistic missiles.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 2

It's extremely frustrating, especially I'm gonna editorialize a little bit because I don't give a shit really seeing a lot of like the talking heads out there on Twitter and stuff like that, like guys who have been in Iraq, been in Afghanistan, seeing like seen war firsthand, seen the mistakes we've made, and stuff like that, where they're just like beating the drums. It's not just like the Lindsey Grahams,

you know, who's a fucking ghoul. Let's be honest, or like Fetterman who are like pro pro Israel, like yeah, let's do it. It's you know, those guys I understand because they've probably never been outside of like an air conditioned room. But like the natural security analyst guys who have been there and have seen it and they're like they know better, are like kind of cheering this on, and it's unreal to me. It's like, have we not learned anything over the last twenty years.

Speaker 1

It's pretty similar though to the Gulf War, the first one, because you had a lot of Vietnam vets that were generals at that time. Even in the First Iraq War, you still had some holdovers from that period, especially from the eighties when special operations became the doctrinal thing. A lot of people died in those conflicts, and yet those people were the loudest saber rattlers trying to get us in immediately, you know, like in the president's ear saying

like no, we got to go right now. And if you go back to the nineties when Netnaho first became powerful, essentially, especially the mid nineties, his advisors basically came to him

Historical Context of U.S.-Iran Relations

with a paper called the Clean Break Memo that talked about overthrowing three countries in the Middle East, first Iraq, second Syria, and third Iran. And if you look at today, they've been working on that ever since then. In two thousand and three, the Masad actually changed their number one priority targets from Palestinian focused targets like the PFLP of the PLO to Iran number one, number two Hesboa and number three Hamas. And that was a clear shift that

Nennyahu actually pushed toward that goal. And as you said, the year after that, we invaded Iraq. We overthrew Iraq as they told us to. And then we've been working

against the Syrian government ever since then. Even though Syria helped us in the very beginning of the war, they gave us intel, they gave us satellite imagery, they told us where guys were at in Syria, we brushed that aside, and ever since then we did COVID action in Syria under Timber Sycamore, where we tried to overthrow the government and eventually it actually succeeded. Last December. Yeah, it was

check mark number two. And then you've got the final check mark, which is the most difficult piece for them for Israel to move and that is Iran and it's happening right now.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's incredible when you lay it out like that. You know it's taken thirty years or more, but it's

it's almost there. I mean also a bit of like the wishful thinking you see from you know, because I'm not I'm a dumb civilian, right, but I've talked enough like salty CIA guys, especially CIA guys who were like involved are working while Iraq was building, where they talk about it like where the wishful thinking is where you get in trouble, right totally, And I see a lot of that, like talking about regime change, like are people

protesting in the streets really? I mean obviously not because you're getting bombed, but.

Speaker 1

Well, actually, interesting you say that they just executed some protesters that were protesting two days ago. They captured them the same day and killed them the same day. So they are violently tapping down any resistance in the country. The strongest resistance of the regime that exists is the Mujahedini khalk MK, which was also an enemy of the

Shah back in the seventies. They had a mutual understanding with the regime in the first couple of years after the revolution, and then the regime executed three thousand plus prisoners of the Mek prisoners essentially in the nineteen eighties late eighties. Ibrahim Raysi was named the hanging judge back then. He became president later and then died in a helicopter. But that is the largest resistance group. Believe me, you do not want that group leading Iran. It's a quasi

Marxist cult essentially, that's based out of Albania. Israel. Masad has been working with them. That's their number one group they work with outside of Iraq and Iran to actually get stuff in. Like when you see all this stuff smuggled into Iran, most of the time, it's Mujahidini Kalk moving it in, not Masad. It's Masad running agents. Those

agents are Iranian and they're moving stuff in. But the way Israel advertises it to kind of like upsell their footprint, like oh, we got inside Iran, it's like you didn't. Actually you've had guys recruited that did that. Guys that are not the right people you want leading ninety million people, which Ted Cruz can't even name. The number of inside the country is going Yeah.

Speaker 2

I mean it's actually I really appreciate you bringing that up, right, like, because we really haven't really i mean general public layman's like myself don't really know, like, yeah, what's the resistance in Iran look like? And like you said, like I'm not surprised that they're not going to come in and be like this lib democracy that loves fucking elections and

all that stuff. So yeah, and also a great point bringing up like yeah, like the you know, because everyone was talking about how, oh my god, Mussad did this drone thing and like hit the ballistic missiles before they you know, they had guys on the ground and I'm sure they had a couple you know, singletons and operators on the ground and stuff. But like you said, the

The Dynamics of Resistance in Iran

facilitated all they need. Irani's right, who can go in and out? And I did see a couple of days ago they executed like twenty or so agents that they call it, like Mussad agents. It's just insane, honestly, man, I'm like so taken aback by this that, like the drums of war are just like spinning and bat and baying so loud. Also, like there was you gov did a poll, like sixteen percent of Americans do not want to do this. H sixteen percent of Americans do want to do this, the rest do not.

Speaker 1

Like that's pretty significant.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean so in terms it's like political suicide. I mean, I guess like Trump definitely is teflon and he doesn't really have that to worry about. You do see a split in the base there, like the MAGA base and stuff like that. There are people like streaming from the rooftops, but I don't know what that really is gonna end up doing for Trump anyway, in terms of like politically, talk a little bit about more like, yeah, the inner dynamics of what it looks like in Iran

right now. I mean, especially a little bit more about the resistance group.

Speaker 1

So, first of all, big problem in Iran right now for the regular Iranians is fear. They're afraid of what's happening, because even though Israel says they're there to help, they've killed hundreds of people that are not involved in anything, and we know that they do that frequently. But because of that fear, Iranians don't know what to do, where to go. They're trying to get out of Tehran. A lot of them are they're trying to go up into the mountains, like in the west, which is courage, or

down south. The problem is down south, sixty miles south is ford out. So if they try to go south, now they're entering a new conflict zone that probably tomorrow or tonight will become you know, the center of the conflict zone.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and they're.

Speaker 1

Trying to get out. And a lot of these people in Tehran, they're they're city people. They don't they don't live outside, you know, like probably outside this big metropolitan area. So for them, I mean, imagine if you're living in New York your entire life and someone says, like, evacuate up to get the cat skills, I'm far Yeah, you know, like that's crazy.

Speaker 2

I'm a concrete princess, dude, exactly.

Speaker 1

Yeah, And that's what's going through a lot of people's minds. Plus like food and water and think about you always got to think about the day after. So let's say that Khmani dies today, what happens tomorrow? I mean, if you already took out all these top leaders, who, don't get me wrong, are murderous villains, you know, these IRGC generals,

Potential Outcomes of Conflict

these guys have killed thousands of Iranians inside the country, of course, but what will replace them as far as law and order and social structure, and you're going to see just I predict, just like Iraq, there was looting, widespread violent crime, just totally unrestrained. You know, once you once you take the framework off of a society, it

doesn't matter where it is. Look at France in the eighteen hundreds, after Napoleon, there was Napoleon, then there was a monarch, then there was Napoleon, then there was a monarch. That's where communism actually came from, because there was a Paris Commune twice, you know, and it was really really violent. It was totally unrestrained. And I think that Iran that's probably the most likely outcome. If this happened tonight, that's

what would happen tomorrow. And that's very scary because whatever Israel says rhetoric, why is whatever netyah who says, where's the actual help that will come the day after? And I don't think it doesn't seem that that is part of the plan. In fact, I think chaos is probably more preferred, especially if you look at Israeli domestic politics the longer conflict goes on, the more netnya who's survival is assured. He's a human being, everyone's a human being.

Everyone wants to keep doing the thing they want to do, and he sees the writing on the wall. You know, before October seventh, hundreds of thousands of people were protesting against his government in the streets. That switched off immediately and has not started up again. So the longer this can go on, the slower burn this could be. Yeah, better domestically it is for him against his own you know, opponents in the country.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I did. I remember, like they were like talking or spin it up like a possible no confidence vote or whatever in the parliament, and that kind of like went away.

Speaker 1

But that was the day before the launch of the strikes.

Speaker 2

That'll do it, I guess, right, Like you have a bigger enemy to fry now, and it's it's Iran, and it's like the big boogeyman. And again, like I'm not the type of guy that's like saying like Israel shouldn't be secure, right, I think they've done a relatively great job of staying secure. Their armed to the teeth, right, they have the best military in the region probably by a lot. Right, Like there's some talk about like Egypt being like as good, but like I don't technologically, I

don't believe it. So it's like Israel is pretty much secure. I mean, the only time we've ever seen even last year when they hit like Irani and U air defence radars and stuff like that, Like the response was like a coordinated response, right ye, just saying like hey, we have to respond, no one's actually gonna die. I think one person died and it was an Arabic girl, but it was very coordinated, very like you know, for for lack of a better word, for show really now like

ballistic missiles are hitting in downtown Tel Aviv. People are dying in downtown Tel Aviv, where like I don't think they're exactly used to it. I know, I know they're used to living in like a world like that where they hear rockets come in from other tamasu the Hesbola, but it's relatively it was at least relatively few and far between. Now they're getting peppered right.

Speaker 1

In different munitions this time because the ones from Hesbal are smaller ordnate, smaller order, you know, explosions, these are medium range ballistic missiles or larger which have a very large impact. So again that fear factor when you hear an explosion that's this small, like small you know, around your city block versus one that's heard around the whole city, big difference in how people feel in the city, you know.

Speaker 2

Totally going back to like the GBU fifty seven, right, which only the B two can carry. They can carry two a pop. There was like reporting, I believe it was washed Wall Street Journal where like Trump was asking his generals and his NFC, like, hey, is can this actually work? Like can it really take out or really degrade their nuclear program? According to the article, they're saying

that the general said yes, it can. Of course, prior to like this going down and when this was just conjecture everyone talking about and analyzing it they said, people were saying, no, it'll probably center back maybe three six months, and then they'll redouble their efforts. So what's changed besides like, oh, no, it's time to go to war and like we don't give a shit about like the actual truth that's on the ground or what actually can happen.

Speaker 1

Well, the way our mind works is we try to arrange information in a way that makes our desired outcome the more accepted outcome. And I think because people are being pushed in the direction of using the weapon, a lot more of the rhetoric in support of it is getting center stage, while the other information is being pushed to the side, especially when you have hawks around in the administration saying, oh, no, we just got to do it. But you look at the maximum effective depth of that

it's two hundred feet. Well, the site in ford Ou is at least three hundred feet, so you're already looking at a math problem. Doesn't make sense, and that's at least three hundred feet. What if it's deeper. What if the material composition of that mountain is such that you require even more for a shorter depth, you require more munition. And of course they've done measurements signature intelligence to know

what the composition is of the mountain. But I would question that math right up front, and then I would also look at the other nuclear facilities, because there's only one thousand cent reviews is at Ford Out. The fact that it's deeply buried makes us suspicious that perhaps this is a location that has either a bomb almost constructed or constructed, or the best part of their uranium stockpile

could be there. Maybe. But I just saw Vladimir Putin talking yesterday about Boucher, because in Boucher, which is another facility, there's two hundred Russian scientists and technicians from rosatoone working there right now, and apparently he reached a separate piece with neat Yahoo where Netanyahu agreed not to strike Boucher in this conflict, which is very interesting because if the Iranians see the news like we see the news, that

would probably stimulate them to perhaps move their uranium right now, or maybe they already did and we just don't know it. There's a lot of unknown here because the noise floor is very high in this situation, and there's a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding going on because in this type of conflict, a lot of experts just kind of emerge out of the woodwork, throwing around things that they remember from their time maybe ten years ago, twenty years ago is not accurate today.

Speaker 2

Yeah, man, I mean again, I'm gonna keep saying it's freaking scary, dude, because it also seems to be happening a lot faster now than what I remember from like Iraq, you know, like Iraq was like a year long kind of media blitz, and that's probably having to do with like social media and how stuff is so fast.

Speaker 1

But well, I'll say, back then, it took longer, I think because Israel had to convince the American public to act. Now, Israel, every country does intelligence work, right. There are no allies in the intelligence world. There are only interests. Israel collects intelligence just like we do on everybody. They're doing assessments not only of Ayatola Kameni, they're also doing assessments of

Donald Trump about his decision making ways. And they've probably determined that they don't have to convince the American public of this. All they have to do is convince Donald Trump, and they probably know how to do it because they're looking at how he reacts a different things and they're seeing which pressure points can we push today to make an outcome tomorrow. Doing the same thing with Putin right, and that's not unusual, I mean, that's what states do.

It's just unfortunate in the situation like this where so many lives are at stake, both Israeli lives, Iranian lives,

The Role of Foreign Intervention

and most of all American lives. We don't need to be sending our troops to go die in Iran. And if people remember the Iran Iraq war in nineteen eighty to eighty eight, the way that Iran thought that war was brutal, right, and very similar situation actually to right now. Saddam hussein'sa on opportunity. A few months after the revolution nineteen seventy nine, he said, oh, it's a weak country. Now I can just go in and invade and we'll take it. He went in and he was met with

massive opposition. And it's interesting because before that there was a revolutionary situation where you had at least eight different factions. One of them is the regime today, but the other seven were also vying for power. All of them put their weapons down against each other and forced them against Sudan Vasain. And I think a similar situation could arise

today because imagine if you disagree. Let's say your party A and someone else's party B, and you guys want to go fight each other, but suddenly someone invades your country. You're not concerned about fighting each other anymore. Now you're looking at this bigger threat and standing next to each other. And that's this very scary situation and one that doesn't have to happen. That's that's the sad thing. It's completely avoidable to have all these lives put in danger on all fronts.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean great, well said, right, because everyone's talking about like regime change and stuff like that and how it'll TAPA, But like what happens if yeah, if they meet it with you know, unity, right exactly and like

get together and fight. Plus, like, is Israel willing to send one hundred thousand or so troops or even like a Tier one team like you know, I'm sure Delta and Jaysck there if they're not training up for their other mission, which is not just Hassa's rescue, right, it's also like nuclear proliferation or nuclear deterrence this, I mean they in their mos right, there's skill said, is to go into places like this and get nuclear weapons out or like neutralize a nuclear facility. So is Israel willing

to do that without the US's help? And is the US willing.

Speaker 1

To do that?

Speaker 2

I hope not?

Speaker 1

Well, Israel's done it twice before they bomb the Osra react nuclear reactor in Iraq, and they bomb the Syrian nuclear reactor as well, without US support. The important thing is they didn't do anything afterward to secure the nuclear material. And actually in one of those there was a bunch of North Korean engineers that were discovered under the rubble, which is very interesting. But what if they do that again?

What if they because I saw another statement today saying it doesn't have to be an air strike, it could be something else that blows up. For now, maybe they've got guys inside, or maybe it's like a stuck snet type thing where they disrupt the centrifugias or some other thing. Okay, that happens. Then what You've got hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium near weapons grade? What happens? Then? There's a

lot of separatist groups in Iran. There's the Baluchi's, there's the Kurds, there's Azeri and other smaller groups that for several hundred years have been in opposition to any government in your own What happens if a Balucci group gets a hold of some of that uranium and brings it to Afghanistan, then what you know? And that's a really big question. I mean, that's a lot of nuclear material. It's hundreds of pounds of nuclear material. You can't just go put it in your backpack, right take it out.

You've got to do a lot of stuff to get rid of it. And in the meantime, look in Livia, what happened when Gaddafi toppled, those weapons proliferated around the world in like days and weeks. Same thing with the in Yemen with the Huthis. As soon as the Many government fell, all those weapons stores were cleared out like same day, you know, and these other groups that now we hate are armed with all the equipment that we

freed up. When I say we any collectively, you know, the world freed up for this these groups to get a hold of. And now you're talking uranium. I would hope to see an exit strategy advertised with along with these threats of invasion and attack.

Speaker 2

Yeah, that'd be amazing.

Speaker 1

I mean, we're not going to get it right on purpose too, because the incertain team makes it makes it more pressure for the other side.

Speaker 2

So for self, So I'm gonna ask one of my buddies. Asked right, one of my buddies, New York guy works in Manhattan, And it's interesting, this Israel Iranian conflict has like kind of elevated past, like people that really are interested in like foreign policy, geopoliticans stuff, it's elevated past like the general public. My buddy who's not really like concerned about that. He's concerned about making money like you know, and taking care of his family like most people, he's like, Oh,

what's gonna happen? Like in terms of like blowback? Right, what does blowback look like? If the US gets involved in striking facilities and like an open ended, you know, air campaign against Iran.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I would be more concerned about how the US gets further pulled into the conflict than about specifically what Iran does in reaction to it. Because the regime is very weak. It has been weak even before this. It's been weakened for years. So their ability to actually conduct an offense against the United States is pretty low. Even against like Bahram where we have fifth Fleet or in Katar where we have the Air Force, or you know, Afcent, it'd be very tough for them to kind of have

a sustained campaign against those. They only have two thousand missiles, so they've already fired about thirty to fifty percent of them. So I mean, you've got a Swan song there at the end where they can launch the rest. But then what right. But I'd be more concerned about, Okay, the US goes in there, kind of like Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan. We went in there and we had executed a flawless invasion, did what we wanted to do in a few weeks,

and then we stayed for twenty years. And that's that's more concerning to me, because that is more likely because it's easy for us to get wrapped up, you know, bit by bit by bit, pulled into this thing, and now you're in a position that you can't get out of.

You're in a dilemma. And it seems as though we're already moving toward that dilemma now, the way we're getting pulled in the way we brought the D two bombers even a few months ago in April, you know, doing those small little things without us even realizing it pulls us into the conflict in a way that's very challenging for us to get out of on our own. It's not that the enemy is doing something specifically, is that we are doing something that cements us into further conflict.

Speaker 2

Yeah. So I basically told my friend, I try to

Future Relations with Iran

dumb it down to where it's like, listen, if we do get involved, likely like because like you said, I, RAN's pretty weak regime, right, Like they don't really have

the reach that they people think they do. But like if we were to get involved and it's like two three years down the road, I'm like, at that point, like maybe you can worry about like a bomb going off somewhere in the United States, right like where it's like a smaller terrorist attack kind of thing rather than like ballistic missiles raining down And I told them, like they can't reach here and they don't have as many,

like we're fine. Yeah, it's nuts, man, It's so crazy because people are just so fucking like it's just like they have like goldfish memories.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Well, there's one thing that's very important to remember, and that's nineteen fifty three. That's when the US, the CIA, and Great Britain went in and overthrew Mohammad Mosadic, who was a democratically elected Prime minister of Iran under Operation Ajax, which I encourage listeners to read about. Very fascinating point in our history. We did that to bring the Shah to power that was the son of the original Shaw who we in the British also brought to power after

World War One. Right, So there's a history of foreign involvement, not just the US, but foreign involvement in Iran that tends to turn Iranians against certain foreign interests. Like there's a great opportunity for the United States to be friends with Iran in the future with a new new government

and new situation. But if we repeat or do something similar to Operation Ajax, there is a very high chance that we will have no friends in Iran, which is very sad because that country has great people, amazing culture and history obviously, but also amazing natural resources that are just sitting there. And they also have the Straits of Wour moves right south of them, and they could help

Navigating Complex Geopolitics

secure that area rather than make it threatened. Right that the country has such potential to be a positive actor for us, and it did during the entire Shas period from nineteen fifty three through nineteen seventy nine, which is a quarter of a century. That was our best friend in the Middle East. Who replaced that best friend Israel, And I think it would threaten Israel to have that friend again, because now that would threaten the balance. That's

been set up. It would threaten the aid that's set up. It would that lifeline that we have set up, all that work that they've done over the years to get those things in their country, to get guaranteed six billion dollars a year foreign assistance, no strings attached, et cetera.

All that stuff is now in jeopardy because there's another country with more resources, more people, more industry, all this, you know, so many more things to offer the United States economically that I think it would not be in Israel's interest to allow us to be friends with a new Iranian government. It would be instead they'd prefer probably to have a more chaotic outcome because that would keep them at the top as far as middle the politics goes.

Speaker 2

Bro I don't understand. I never feel happy after these these conversations with people, Like even when I'm doing with the guys, it's like, when do we get some good news, right, like, and like, honestly, I'm not a Trump guy, but obviously I have to give him a little bit of credit of like not jumping into this completely half cocked. I really do hopefully this is a move to like try

and bring Iran to the table. The one wild card, in my opinion is Israel because like, even if we did have like a deal right in place, right, I

The Human Cost of Conflict

can't see Israel stopping.

Speaker 1

Right what's in their interest to continue, especially if we're approaching a deal, because that, as I said, it shatters their ability to maintain the balance in the region.

Speaker 2

Good lord, all right, let's talk a little bit about because it's like seems like everybody forgot about Gaza and what's going on there. The genocide that's going on there, I'll say it, the war crimes that are going on over there. Not a fan of Hamas guys, just FYI, I know they are a terrorist organization, and I hate that I have to qualify the fact that I think that I believe that Israel should be secure and you know,

keep their security. But what they've been doing over the last two years, close to two years, has been just like like Genghis Khan type stuff, you know, where it's just we'll starve them out. Well, you know, it's fine, We'll be fine. There's no endgame there, much like there seems to be no endgame in Iran either. I just don't understand what the move is. What do you what are your thoughts? I have no questions. I just speak in them like it's like jazz.

Speaker 1

So the former director of mazade Back and I think it was two thousand and five, said that every Palestinian either is a terrorist, gives birth to terrorists, or is a relative of a terrorist. And I think that is

that explains the behavior toward Gaza. Yeah, because as you qualified what you said, there is no qualification for how they're describing Palestinian And it was interesting today, is ironic that Netnyahu said that, you know, Iran hit a hospital, nobody was hurt, but that's in a red line that Iran hit a hospital. And I was thinking, well, it's a good thing there's no more hospitals in Gaza to accidentally hit, right, sarcastically and sadly saying that, But look

at the double standard here. You know, why is that okay? But it doesn't make it just doesn't make sense. It's very hard to wrap your head around from a logical perspective because it's not logical. It's emotional. You know, it's ideological. The way that they're framing these things, and that's how they're able to keep people supporting it is through ideology rather than logic, which is very scary because ideology knows no bounds.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and you know, I'm assuming a person who was like pro this the operation in Gaza would be like, oh, because Hamasa has their command and control there, and that might be true, but like you know, in Tel Aviv

The Cycle of Violence and Resistance

Ministry of Defense or like some important buildings are in downtown tel Aviv, right, Like at the same time, look at you know, your marines in two thousand and four in Fallujah, right they went house to fucking house to clear out stuff. They lost a lot of guys. They didn't just make it place rubble completely wipe it off the map. They literally went house to fucking how Andy

Milburn was there. You know, it was unbelieve it was insane, you know then like the kind of urban warfare that was going on there.

Speaker 1

Well, even a more direct comparison, if you look at the strike that killed Mohammed Bagheri, who was one of the IRGC commanders that they killed, it's a very small hole about the size of a grapefruit that they struck him with. Why can't they use that level of precision in Gaza to kill these quote unquote leaders The forty thousand to fifty thousand leaders that they've killed, which again very questionable description of these people. Why haven't they used that?

If Masad has such exquisite intelligence and Shinbet has such exquisite intelligence, why can't they do these precision strikes there? If you're looking at it though from a logical perspective, what they're doing is they're purposely destroying gos It. They're flattening it to the ground so that they can take it back. And although many Israelis don't agree with that, those who are in decision making positions do, and those are the ones with their ability to send these forces

out to do these things. And I think a lot of Israelis don't want this to happen. A lot of them before October seventh were very pro Palestinian rights. There's a lot of organizations in Israel that actually help Palestinians, you know, but there are also a lot that to the opposite. I saw an interview today with a Palestinian Israeli citizen who has denied entry into a bunker in

his city inside of Israel because he spoke Arabic. They actually changed the towed him the door, and he actually was exposed to a bomb landing nearby because he wasn't allowed in a bunker because he's Palestinian, even though he's a citizen of Israel. Yeah, that tells you something. And again it doesn't characterize the entire state. But there are absolutely people with decision making power that are pushing this agenda.

Speaker 2

I mean, we'll look at this mute, that mutant Ben Gevier. You know, his party is the Jewish Power Party. Man if I was like, hey, guys, I'm joining the new party, this new party on Korean it's called White Power Party. That's going to be looked at as like, yo, relaxed, dude, what the fuck's going on?

Speaker 1

Right?

Speaker 2

It's incredible, Like because Jews, for you know, during in Europe got fucking annihilated, right, it was horrible. So I would assume at least like you'd have some affection and some like care about people who are not you, who are not your religion. You wantn't be interest, just didn't wiping them out. And again I'm not saying all of Israelis are like that, but the people that you said are in power, right, the war cabinet, Ben Yahu and

his coalition are very much about that. Uh. I just think they would you would have a little bit more sensitivity to that, to where like we should be able to live with these people in a relative piece, work together to you know, root out the bad actors and stuff like that. But what they're just doing, like just going into Gaza and bulldozing Gaza, taking more settlements in the West Bank. It's like, dude, if I live there and I was Palestinian, what the fuck you? What is

anyone doing? Man? Like you see your family dying and stuff like that, I'm picking up a fucking ak two.

Speaker 1

Yeah, well, look at Hezbla. You know, people say like, oh, Hesbla. It came out of nowhere. It was this crazy organization, which yeah, again have to qualify. It's a terrible organization that did a lot of violence. But where did it come from. Israel invade Lebanon in June sixth, nineteen eighty two. There was resistance. Israel was getting their asses handed to them in Beirut. Ariel Sharon had called on the United States to come support them. The United States sent the

multinational forces to there to Lebanon. The Marines went there, the French went there, the Italians went there, and two years later or one year later. The bombings on those barracks occurred by these different groups, some were controlled by Syrians, and you know, you can get to the long history of all this. Hesbla didn't exist till nineteen eighty five. There was no Hesbela in nineteen eighty two when Israel invaded,

and even then Hesbola was very small. Then you look at two thousand and six when Israel invaded Lebanon again

The Consequences of Short-Sighted Policies

the Thirty Day War. There Hesbola tripled in size after that and they gained twelve seats in parliament after Israel left Lebanon. Right, So you have this kind of weird thing where there's a Israeli action, a military action that causes, as you said, people there suddenly changed the way they think about things and say, you know what, I don't

like this. I'm going to resist this. I didn't do this before, but because they're threatening my homeland, you better believe the pick up a weapon and defend my village. Doesn't matter whose bomb it belongs to. You know where that came from, Like, I just don't want these people here. And that behavior continues to generate resistance that didn't exist, It did not exist before and it's it's a very short sighted way of going after these conflicts, just like

in Iran, just like in Gaza and West Bank. It's like, Oh, let's hurt them today and that's all that matters. And it doesn't seem or feel like they're thinking twenty to thirty years in the future about what does this due to even our country. To Israel. For example, in twenty eighteen, they passed the Jewish Purity Law that says that it's a purely Jewish state and there's no other religion recognized or all that. If you read the article, it's very crazy to read, but doing I mean that article is

threatened by what they're doing. Right now, twenty five percent of their citizens are Palestinian two percent. What about those people? How will they feel? You know, especially if they're shut out of bunkers today. They're not going to forget that and their families won't forget that. You like that is that is an idea that lives for a very long time and it's not forgotten. And I feel like people need to think more about the future, like what does

this mean down the road? Okay, yeah, what's the second and third order effect? Not on just US, but on the region and on the greater world area. You know, kind of rambling on about that, but it kind of blows my mind.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think we don't think about it, even like even with like in the US with when we went into Iraq Afghanistan, we didn't think about the blowback, right, we didn't. We didn't go into it thinking like you know,

we made bad decisions. We didn't think about the you know, debatification of what blowback that would look like, uh, destabilizing an entire region that did bring on like you know, from two thousand and three on, when you get rid of Saddam Iran, Iran had was able to like fill the vacuum right and cause a civil war in Iraq because it's major it's majority Shia right in Iraq. Yeah, I mean so, I'm sure sure there are smart people

in our govern Obviously they are, right. I've met a bunch of them, and it's like when I meet them, guys like you are like other people who are like, all right, these guys are fucking locked in like they they you know, thank God, like they choose to do something of service rather than make triple or quadguble the money they can make outside somewhere else using their smarts.

But it just seems so often that the people in power don't listen to them, don't listen to the people that are like the actual subject matter experts that know and then you know, game this out. It's their whole job. And when they tell them like clear as day that these leaders don't listen, and it's what kind of leaderships is that?

Speaker 1

I don't know, what's political decisions that are being made without policy information, you know, I don't know if you saw that Tulsea Gabbard came out again and said basically the regime did not have a nuclear weapon, basically saying the same thing we've been saying since two thousand and three when we first put out that very first memo that said Aaron stopped doing their nuclear program for weaponization.

And apparently she's getting sidelined because she said that, which is it just Actually when I heard that, I was thinking about the Abraham Lincoln period when his advisors were picked purposely in opposition to each other and to him

so that way they could come out with it. They have a synthesis outcome for a policy debate where like I don't agree with you but what if we get a better outcome because we because we disagree, we actually sit down and listen to it, We talked through it and come out with option C. And that is so the opposite of what's going on now. And I remember

The Role of Leadership in Global Affairs

during the first administration, the president actually stopped reading the Daily CI, the President's Daily Brief, And that's that's amazing because that information is the most pure, accurate, up to date information. Intelligence is never perfect. Yes, it's gotten certainty built into it, but if you want the ground truth as close as possible the truth, you can't ignore that stuff.

And if your entire intelligence community is telling you, hey, it's not the way it's being told to you by these foreign interests aka Israel, maybe you should take a second look at it. But instead you can see it political decision is being made rather than an informed decision, that political decision or emotional decision is based on individual thought rather than constructive sitting down at the table and kind of like game planning. I hope that happens today

at the NFC. I hope generals come in, the IC comes in, the OD and I comes in. They all sit down and kind of work through this and pick the option that makes the most sense for the United States and for the world, because people forget we are

a world power. Even if if someone wants to be isolationists. Okay, but you can't change the fact that we are actually affecting every corner of this earth right now and will be for a very long time, right, and our actions have far reaching consequences for everybody, including ourselves.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and you can't just decouple from being you know, a world power, like an economic world power, right, like we make sure the trains run on time. We're a huge consumer goods too, like, so yeah, exactly, It's not like overnight you could just flip the switch. The interesting thing about the NSC is like how many people are left.

You know, there's probably like nine people in that room, you know, like, yeah, I just really hope there are some policy wonks in there, some analysts who are like sobering analysts who are like, listen, we don't know what this is going to happen, you know, And you know mentioned that the resistance group that most likely is going to have going to be able to like, you know, be the if there's a vacuum in Iran, like they're probably going to take it over.

Speaker 1

It's possible that Israel tries to push the Shaw's Sun into I did see him.

Speaker 2

He's doing TV hits and stuff like that.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, which again, looking back, we've done that twice already and both times it worked out badly, and this time I don't think it will be any different. Nothing against him, The problem is he's been so out of it since the eighties. He has not been involved vocal. You know, there's no unified opposition besides the Mujahidini Kalk in the country and outside the country, and most of the Iranians that fled during the revolution didn't go back. Yeah,

there's a disconnect between these two sets of Iranians. Without that unification, there's probably going to be some kind of chaos right afterward war for a long period of time.

Speaker 2

Weren't we also trying to do this with the guy in Iraq who was out of the country for like, however thirty years or whatever.

Speaker 1

You mean, Ahmed Shalabi. Yes, yeah, so he was actually working for the Iranian government, which actually came out afterward. He was like a full fledged Iranian agent, and we brought him in and he was the dude that said that, Oh there's definitely nukes, there's definitely all this stuff. There's these refrigerator trucks driving around with chemical weapons. And then we put him in power immediately as soon as we over threw the government, which he got what he wanted, right, yeah,

and then we eventually pushed him away. But I mean, something very similar could happen again.

Speaker 2

Right oh man? So yeah, listen, my fingers are crossed.

Speaker 1

You know.

Speaker 2

I hope, like it's just insane because Trump is so unpredictable and like day to day it seems to change. And I really hope there is a general in there, somebody. There's no natural security advisor. I mean, it's ruby, but how you can how can you be the Secretary of State and the national security advisor.

Speaker 1

He's also in charge of the archives. By the way, he's got three hats.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, it's just it's it's gnarly to me. Uh And you know, I saw another report to where like Trump's been talking with Lindsey Graham like all the time, Like Lindsay Graham is a proper fucking ghoul demon. I'll say it, bro. And it's not because he's a Republican. Because Fetterman is also a ghoul demon. It's just it's just not smart, it's not strategic, it's not at all like it's just like, you guys have a serious job, senators, right, you have a serious there's only one hundred of you.

It's a serious job. It's a sobering job. You should take it seriously about going into another country, of bombing another country that it might not even work if i'm if I'm Iron and they bomb Uh, what's the name of the frog? Frog? Though FORDA, Sorry, I am tripling

The Future of Iran and Regional Stability

my efforts to get a nuclear weapon. Right, Yeah, there's a reason why they get him is because it's regime security. McK moilroy says that he's like, you could be Libya like Kadafi who gave him up, or try and be North Korea. The guy's there for one reason, and one reason it's because he's got nuclear weapons. Man, I don't know. It's gonna be an interesting few weeks for sure. This is rarely campaign. They said it's gonna last at least weeks.

I mean I could see it being a completely indefinite Any final thoughts, Well, my.

Speaker 1

Thought is about the Iranian people, because almost every Iranian that you meet is anti regime. There's a very very tiny minority of people in the country that actually support the regime, and most of them are government employees. You know, let's say eighty million of these people hate the regime. That does not mean that they want the regime just

eliminated period without an exit strategy. They like, there needs to be a way that the people who actually live there have a positive outcome, right, That should really be the top priority in this situation, not just destroying this alleged nuclear bomb that exists somewhere. Instead, it should be let's get regional security and regional peace by looking at the people that will be affected by our choices in

those countries. And just today's CNN finally showed footage from inside Iran that was the very first Western media outlet I saw where there's actually an American journalist walking around inside Tehran showing you and of course the regime is behind them and the regime is controlling what they see for sure. But the destruction that's there is destruction that's there. It is not made up. It's not staged.

Speaker 2

Building production design, Yeah.

Speaker 1

Exactly, it's not a set. So if you look at the Israeli side, though, how much media coverage is there of inside Tel Aviv right now? Oh my god, twenty four hours a day. Right. I saw an advertisement it said, please send forty five dollars to us because Iran is

bombing Israel. Israel needs your forty five dollars. I mean, there are people making money off this, Yeah, And it's sickening to think, like you're putting children and women and husbands and all these people at risk in both countries and all the countries because you're you ork like not you, but you know, some people are so shortsighted and so self centered on the situation. They don't understand that this is going to have a negative impact on you, you know.

Speaker 2

Right and for generations. Man. Like I was listening to some podcasts with a former UH former deputy NSA for

Kamala Harris. I forget the guy's name anyway, It was around foreign affairs, and he said he's like, we don't know what, like, you know, the next twenty or thirty years are going to look like because it's such a disaster in there, like and it's so I'm obviously paraphrasing because I'm not as well spoken as this dude, but it just doing this like into the unknown, right, Like we didn't know that Isis was going to come about when we went into Iraq, right, we had no idea

and like, sure there were gi hotties in Iraq before we went in, but AQI was not a didn't exist, right, So it's just the blowback is incredible. Also, like in across Africa, the fundamental you know, the jihad Is are it's proliferated to an extent where it's like almost unbelievable to think about.

Speaker 1

I mean, look at the French, they're like, oh, we did operations serval, we fixed the problem. And then you look fast forward to now and it is so widespread across the Sahelmgreb region. There were some effects for sure, but it's morphed into something else. You go to Nigeria right now, I mean like you are in danger at risk from these groups all across the continent, especially in the central Sahel region. And that wasn't an accident or

it didn't come out of coal cloth. That was because conditions were set inadvertently by outside action that led to these groups expanding.

Speaker 2

Yeah, man, it's really scary. I mean I'm gonna be like locked into my fucking phone and Twitter over the next like forever. I mean it, and it feels like the last they just to end on this. It feels like the last few days especially, it's been like a waiting game super on Edge, just like I'm like literally my thought in my head is like, all right, I'm gonna refresh Twitter and I'm gonna see oh yeah, us bombs.

Fuck what's this? What's it called? Ford Ow? Sorry? Ford Ow you know, and you'll see like the rest of the people freaking, you know, celebrating like we've done something like we you know, like it's V Day or V Day, you know what I mean. Like, yeah, all right, Jonathan, I want you guys to go and check out. First off, Jonathan's episode on the Team House really cool, interesting military career,

very different than most marines. One of my favorite episodes of the recent in recent history in recent times of the Team House. His book Threory of a Regular Warfare that's out now. People can diet that right now. And other book that's coming out I ran Shadow Weapons, which goes into like all their covert action and uh, you know has be like all the stuff that they do that's coming out soon.

Speaker 1

Right, yep, it's coming out in September.

Speaker 2

Okay, so I'm going to put links in the description. Make sure everybody grabs that pre orders the new book. John's a good egg, really fun time. We should definitely do this again, John, this is awesome. Anything else I'm trying to think I'm doing the housekeeping. Oh, if you want to support the show, you can get to Teamhouse and Eyes On Geopolitics completely AD free and early. You can go to patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. Of course, the rest of the guys all their links are in

the description. You can check them out there. And yeah, John, this is great, bro, Thank you, Yeah, thanks, I appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show. If you've been watching it enjoying it, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this, you can check out our patreon. It is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse, and for five dollars a month you can get access to all of these episodes of The Teamhouse ad free. The same goes with our affiliated podcast, eyes On with Andy Milburn,

Jason Lyons, mcmulroy that one. You will also get all of those episodes add free and you support the channel and the show, and we really appreciate it. The Patreon members are literally what has helped this company, this small business, survive, especially during our early years, and you are what continues to help this thing going even as we navigate the turbulent world of YouTube advertising. So we really appreciate all of you.

Speaker 2

Guys.

Speaker 3

There's going to be a link down in the description to that Patreon page, and there is also going to be a link to our new merch shop, so if you guys want to go and get some Team House merchandise, we got stickers and we also have patches, and I should mention if you sign up for Patreon at ten dollars a month, we will mail you this patch as well,

so we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale on the merch shop and additionally, they got t shirts up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all that good stuff, so please go and check them out and support the show.

Speaker 2

We really appreciate it, guys.

Speaker 3

Thank you,

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