CIA Already Drone Striking Inside Venezuela | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS - podcast episode cover

CIA Already Drone Striking Inside Venezuela | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Dec 31, 202557 min
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Episode description

In this episode, the hosts discuss the recent drone strike in Venezuela, the implications of U.S. military actions, and the ongoing drug trade involving Hezbollah. They explore the potential future of Venezuela post-Maduro, the role of international relations, and the strategic interests of the U.S. in the region, particularly regarding oil resources. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and the challenges of stabilizing Venezuela amidst corruption and economic turmoil.
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00:00 Start
02:58 The Implications of Drone Strikes
06:00 Understanding the Drug Trafficking Narrative
08:48 Military Buildup and Its Consequences
12:00 The Future of Venezuela Post-Maduro
14:53 The Role of Oil in Geopolitical Strategies
17:53 The Complexity of Regional Politics
20:46 Conclusion and Reflections on U.S. Foreign Policy
28:28 Understanding U.S. Involvement in Venezuela
31:26 The Complexity of Military Interventions
34:17 The Role of Hezbollah and Criminal Networks
38:30 Sanctions and Their Effectiveness
41:53 China's Influence in Venezuela
43:50 Speculating on Future Developments
47:05 JT Patten's Literary Ventures

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Transcript

Start

Speaker 1

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Jill Politics. I'm joined today with JT. Patten and Jack Murphy, our deer leader.

Speaker 2

Help.

Speaker 1

Everyone had a great Christmas and it is excited for New Years. Uh, this one's gonna be about Venezuela and what's going down there. I mean, we just found out, you know, it just was confirmed and posted yesterday that there was a drone strike. I wouldn't say it was a port exactly. It was just like a place where like they basically loaded unload drugs, supposing no casualties. It

happened I think like a week or so ago. President Trump mentioned it like kind of ambiguously in in an interview, and then you know, journalists started doing their jobs and stuff like that, and uh, we got to confirmed yesterday that there was a drone strike on land in Venezuela. So that's a little bit of a change to what we've been seeing with like you know, massive military building up and the drought and the strikes on boats in the Caribbean and in the Pacific and stuff like that.

So JT, how you doing. What's your take on all this?

Speaker 2

Good? Thanks for having me. Course, I think a lot of it's a little bit of a joke, you know, not necessarily a joke for those that are getting smoked. But we're definitely ramping up activity there in Venezuela, in and around. But I'm not so sure that the narrative still fits everything. I don't think, you know, I don't think much has changed since about twenty ten when I was covering this. I think even some I read something the other day there was an interview by Marshall billings Late,

who's dealing with the Treasury right now. I remember like twenty ten Marshall had my report. Actually I'm not knocking him, and because I'm sure that Marshall doesn't usually do the collection of intel and the analysis of it, but he's got a lot of people that give it to him.

But I think that, you know, whether it's the drug cartels, whether it's the Hezbolah narrative, I think it's a little bit overstated and largely you know, focused for regime change and maybe even more so on natural resources, which as you know, the oil, you know, So it just just kind of remarks out the gate to kind of show where where it kind of where I stand.

Speaker 3

Doesn't that seem to like contradict. Well, it's certainly some of the statements that are d and I tools Gabbart has made, But I mean even more so beyond that, it's just, you know, it feels like some sort of flashback getting into a regime change war based on false pretenses. Didn't we play this out about twenty years ago?

The Implications of Drone Strikes

Speaker 2

Yeah, And we don't usually do real good job of regime change. Regime change. I mean, if we're talking about here, you know, here's the narrative. We want to get rid of cartels in and around the area. We want to get rid of Hezbollah's influence. We want to get rid of the corruption and crime. All of those things happen when you disrupt the government change er is regime without having a full plan of what you're looking to do. This is more of a depose the tyrant and seize

the oil fields and gather those around. And what happens is then you've got this vacuum for the disruption of everything that's going on over there, and it incites anything that may be there into more more of a problem. Plus we're talking about you know, securing borders. You're going to send a whole bunch of Venezuelans then after that out into the world and increasing a lot of those efforts. So yeah, I think I think they don't have such

a such a great plan, and I'd be curious. I mean, with the Fulca Gabbert, you know, where are they getting the intel? The US hasn't had a lot of operations. I mean, I'm not speaking out turn here, but it's been an unpervisive environment. Okay if you look at the five eyes of who's actually been in Venezuela and able to operate conduct intel operations Canada until I think the last ten years, and the UK right now has has allowed is allowed to have an embassy there. We have

not for years. So you've got you've have.

Speaker 3

Any interestingly, just to interrupt from sorry JT. Yeah, because I've heard I've heard this from a friend of mine working down there. We do maintain the embassy grounds in Venezuela, but it's not an official embassy. It's not opened, but it's maintained and they're keeping it maintained because if things change, we could be coming back.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's I think. I it's interesting. I mean it's the UK definitely has the ability, you know from traditional means of espionage and even just being there having the most resources. And I think it was November they said after you know, Trump was saying that, you know, the drugs,

we got a lot of trafficking networks and stuff. Once that was there there like we're out, We're not sharing any more intel with you, because essentially that whole premise of what we were going to do was going to really kind of jack things up for them as well.

Speaker 3

I want to talk about this latest airstrike that d was mentioning. We seem to have found out in the news in the last twenty four hours that the drone strike on this whatever embarkation facility in Venezuela was done under Title fifty Covert Action Authorities by the CIA, which is a new thing. The other strikes that have been done in the Caribbean the Pacific, supposedly against drug boats have been done by the Department of the Fan. I

Understanding the Drug Trafficking Narrative

think heavily, you know, heavy showing from Jaysack actually, but this is the first one that has been done under CIA authorities.

Speaker 2

So I didn't I don't I should have taken a look at the map of where that is beforehand before it came on. But I let's break this down. Maybe one percent of drug running in the in the in the world is coming from Venezuela. Okay, well one percent, and that's just the trafficking aspect of it. So you've got ninety percent of drug trafficking in and around that area that's not coming from that specific region. It's all going you know, West Pacific, it's going east specific. Very

little is in the Eastern Caribbean. I think when you look at that as a as a trafficking hub, there used to be a statistic. I mean, I had it in a report I don't know years back. I think it was twelve percent of cocaine trafficking proceeds we're going to hez Blah in and around Venezuela. Okay. So if you're taking about one percent of that of that drug trafficking, even you know, just holistically going out of that area,

I think you're taking a small percentage of that. It's really not that profitable for hes Blah and a lot of those individuals in there. So as a drug trafficking hub and where this is launching from, I mean, it's it's I don't I don't see it as a as a massive massive threat. So why why that? You know?

I I don't know, especially if if it's where I think it is, if it's in the I think it was like the things they pronounced like yu or something area, But that is where they had a little bit more of the Muslim population of x Elebanese.

Speaker 4

Uh.

Speaker 2

You know, that's an area where if you're if you're starting to poke around there and starting to do some strikes, I mean that is I mean, if you're worried about increasing the capability of Hezbollah, I think ideologically probably just inciting a little bit more of that area. Do you know more about where specifically that was and what the auspices of that strike was? You know, given I think the boat strikes and everything that was happening.

Speaker 3

Not a whole lot has come out. I don't know where have we gotten any location on that or anything?

Speaker 5

D Uh from this article?

Speaker 1

Uh, there wasn't anything specific in there in terms of where it was.

Speaker 5

I'm just looking double and back.

Military Buildup and Its Consequences

Speaker 3

You knew something was up because Trump was being so vague about it when he talked about this strike, because if it was a d D strike, they'd just say it was D O D. And then this one's kind of like I'm not gonna I'll say you who did it, and it was a d D.

Speaker 5

Strike, they would have had video on an urban on social media.

Speaker 2

Strike on a dock where the US supposed to believes trend Urugua was there were there storing Okay, I mean let's also put this in his perspective, that friend Aruga and the the other little cartel that they were worried about. I mean, it pales in comparison to anything that the Mexican cartels do. Now, a lot of those areas and this is I think kind of interesting too. This is

where I'd be like totally on board. We're just fucking with Iran because around those whole areas are a lot of oil refineries and shipping points for Iranian oil production and transfers. Okay, I mean Iran and Venezuela were founding members of OPEC in nineteen sixty. I guess it was. So Iran has had a massive presence in and around

that area, especially around the oil refineries and production. So if you're also looking at a lot of the major ports over there, it could also have like kind of a dual capability of just kind of hat you know, we're saying this under the auspices of drugs, but we can find with your oil and oil shipments at any

point in time. I mean, for me, if you've got a strategic purpose and if you're united with a bunch of other countries in that, I think that's pretty cool, you know, just to just to jack with them a little bit. Maybe there's some type of disruption that you know, I'm not privy to, but I think what's going on here, I don't know. I think it's a it's a little bit of a stretch, as you said, suggestive Jack.

Speaker 5

So what happens now?

Speaker 1

I mean, we've had, you know, a huge build up of military ad naval assets in the Caribbean for going on a couple of months. Now you've seen different like numbers to like fifteen of the navy and stuff. Seems like they keep taking stuff from into pay com, which you know, I thought that was our focus. Now that you know, g Watt was over what happens now? I mean, is this just a holding pattern? Is it to apply

pressure on medor to get out of Venezuela. There was some chat about talks that they were having with Maduro and stuff, but he was asking for like him and like a hundred people of his to be able to get out him, to have amnesty and all that our immunity. What do we look is this just like a big bluff because it seems like.

Speaker 2

And maybe I don't know, and I don't again, I don't want to tie to like a conspiracy theory and trying to go against our own you know, politics right now of saying, you know, they're completely off the wall because they like they maybe may have agenda that that I don't know a lot. Let's let's think historically, you know, during this escalation period of what things have been said over the last year. Okay, one who want to take over Greenland because they got resources? We want to invade

Canada and because they've got resources. Then again, I know

The Future of Venezuela Post-Maduro

it's just kind of believe, but then you kind of but if you are thinking of expanding, where can you get a bunch of resources fast and everybody else is turning you down? Who can you fuck with that? Really, nobody's going to fuck back with Venezuela. You know, they've got a lot of reserves. So Russia is not going to do much. They don't really have a military presence in and around that area to protect what's Iran going to do. They're not going to do a whole lot either.

Most other people are not going to get into a conflict with it because they do recognize. I mean it's a corrupt area, don't get me wrong. I mean there's massive amounts of corruption. It's a massive hub for money laundering and always has so I think it is a little bit of a wag the dog just to be able to get some of those resources under our control and do it in such a way that it's not

going to disrupt a whole lot. Now, one of the things that I saw the other day was continue to talk about Marguerite Island as being a this massive hezbola training camp area and this is kind of the bee hive. Yeah, bit of bullshit, because you had You've got three main clans that were like Elevenese expats in and around those areas, and then they control a lot of the trade. In many cases they are involved with some of the corruption. A lot more trade based money laundry. That's a lot

more profitable. I mean, instead of running a boat full of drugs out into the Caribbean, you'd rather take a shipment of ladies panties that you are invoicing for twenty dollars that you got for one dollar, and you're getting that profitability to launder money and get paid for the laundering of that one years ago, and this is going back into two again about twenty ten and we were

supporting DoD some opposite capabilities. We're looking at Margarita Island and at the time, I don't know if you remember the name of Raman who was isis involved individual he had missed, He had disappeared from Iraq, was in Syria. I think he ended up being killed in like twenty eleven in Pakistan. He was also with a guy named Majub who is a Venezuelan businessman. So we had a source that captured the picture of Margharita Island of him getting on on on board. There was a picture of

some past sports. We had the capability to say that he was there, and it was widely refuted throughout the community. There's no way that he would be there. Why the hell would he be. Well, if you take a look at that island and that family that owns it, that

The Role of Oil in Geopolitical Strategies

the Klan, the Nasardine, Well, there was a guy Gazi and Azardine, who was Venezuelan Lebanese born. He was the diplomat in Syria at the time, so there's a lot of people being flown back and forth through that through the airlines to Venezuela, and I think the rhetoric was, well, if he's there, then they're planning on hebela tax into the US stuff, you know, via Isis and that bullshit

what ended up happening. If you think about that area, they are known for passport forgery and allowing dual identification for Hezbolah and another number of other groups whoever's willing to pay. So essentially you're targeting this island which is supposed to be this big training camp, and if you look at it, I mean, he's probably like going out to the Sarasota. There isn't that much. That's not how Hezbola trains anyway, and it's pretty much just money laundering.

The fact that you've got a sanctuary and you're able to get a whole bunch of IDs, and I think that kind of plays into I mean, it's like, you know, it's not so hard that you couldn't do surveillance and see that there's nothing going there.

Speaker 1

Isn't like a battalion of guys doing fucking chin ups and stuff malcy bars.

Speaker 2

Yeah, right, well, I think that's you know, I think that's some of the narrative that we get caught up into this this and and that narrative has persisted for decades. Now. You know, people project an isis Gorilla model onto HeLa. The media definitely simplifies presence into training camps. I mean, if you're talking about real HESBLA operatives training there their training and around uh Western tourists that are there and

in the damn casinos understanding the businesses. I mean, that's where anybody if they were doing any training, you'd be getting that type of training. I think the intelligence and set assessments a lot of times conflate facilitation with training, and I think the you know, the criminal and you know, in this case maybe political interests definitely benefit by some

of that is exaggeration. So I mean it's you know, you're you're dealing with networks, You're you're not dealing with terrain situation.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I've heard over the years some interesting stories about Central America, like Panama comes to mind, and this was a ways back where they were getting tips that there were al Qaeda guys coming through Panama, and of course that sends up some red flags when they looked at it though they were using it as a vacation spot. Maybe they were doing some like light like fundraising, but they weren't using it to plan external operations.

Speaker 1

Interestingly enough, well Panama is like a massive hub for

The Complexity of Regional Politics

UH money laundering and stuff like that.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think that in most of those cases, you don't need a state to be operating from. You just need a place where you have permission to be in someplace that's going to cover up where you are, and that's not going to you know, it's going to give you some financial opacity, you're going to get some political protection, you may have some ideological alignment in some of those small communities there, and it's going to give you the

freedom of movement. I think what's also kind of interesting when they always try to link a lot of Lebanese in and around those areas, a lot of those people are Marinite Christians. So you probably have maybe ten percent of those Lebanes out there that are even Muslim she is, But yet they're all operating together in these networks. Why because they're just making money. They're not looking to bomb something, you know, and send in a whole bunch of armies.

These guys are facilitators, and many of them are very high ranking ranking, not in like his blat membership, but in the political scheme. So when you think about deposing a government and they're talking about Maduro having maybe one hundred people, I mean, these are people that have access to a lot of the moneies, a lot of the trades,

and a lot of the businesses. I think what we find is kind of interesting is to see which one of those we allow, because as of about ten years ago, fifteen years ago, some of those people had some massive force farms in Kentucky, massive mansions in Florida, They had

political connections to our own people. So, you know, I think it'll be interesting to see who they go after and who they don't, because there's a lot of Venezuelan money tied into the US and into some of the fundraising of political campaigns because they're just part of that fabric. They don't live in them as waala necessarily, and they've got massive yachts that are going back and forth. So it'll be interesting to see how it aligns and which

which political party maybe they've donated to to see. You know, who you go after and who you don't.

Speaker 3

You make them sound like Russian oil olive arcs.

Speaker 2

You know, in a lot of ways they are. It's just that they're hanging out in Miami. Well, I guess they both are. You know, they probably have some common interest, but but you know, there there are they're they're involved in the in the in equestrian sale of horses and to the millions. I mean, these are high rollers that are interacting with people. So it would be very embarrassing. I think at the time when we're looking at kadievi Permuto, which is like the bond trading and stuff, it's kind

of nebulous. You know, you're jacking up bonds and making

Conclusion and Reflections on U.S. Foreign Policy

some massive profits of it. These people are making hundreds, tens of hundreds of millions of dollars in some cases and spending it in the US, and so it gives you a lot of ability to elbow rub and have funeral guys like you know, p Diddy on the yachts and stuff like that.

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Speaker 5

Thanks guys.

Speaker 1

Let's say you know, somehow, some way Medoo is thrown out, whether it's like his own military or you know, we help in any way we can. And let's say he's gone. What does it look like in terms of what comes next? Does what's the Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Machado right?

Does she come in and a white horse and his crown fucking president and everything is beautiful and it's a beautiful Western democracy where capitalism flows and all boats are lifted and is it like this beautiful story that we keep telling ourselves.

Speaker 2

It's it's going to take more than the US and her putting something like this together. And right now, I don't know that we seek that same type of allyship to do what's necessary. I mean, you're talking about to change the regime and get rid of the corruption. That could take five to seven years as a minimum, with a full commitment to that area of what you're actually going to do on the humanitarian standpoint to deal with

the financial reserves. The biggest thing that you're going to need to do there is stabilize the oil and refinery petro industry there. I mean that is massive commerce, and you've got a lot of corruption there. So if you're going to snip off Iran's involvement, maybe Russian involvement, some China involvement, you've got to be able to have experts

that come in there and actually know that business. And I don't know that we necessarily prop ourselves up to put in experts to those areas that we'll be able to solve. So I would say the likelihood is is that we probably don't have as much interest in reforming the country as we might seizing some of the assets and then kind of backing off and letting somebody else in.

Speaker 1

Super interesting because back in two thousand and two, two thousand and three, you know, we never really talked about oil as a thing that we wanted right or wanted at least control of, And now it just seems like, no, yeah, we want the oil, we want the resources, and that's why we're doing this.

Speaker 2

If yeah, I mean, you'd have to what conversations would we be having with Columbia, What conversations are we having with Brazil, with you know, the general Caribbean about what restabilization looks like. A nation building looks like you're going to have. You've got no shared customs databases they're set up. You've got you know, no maritime patrol cooperations set up.

So I think if you're looking at filling vacuums or how to prevent something that's filling vacuum bypassing sanctions getting paid, you know, I think I think what you're hearing is actual let's let's let's get get that and let them figure out their own country, you know, put somebody in there say it's just and then they can handle themselves.

And I think that's pretty much the rhetoric that we normally hear from this administration is that's really not our problem, but this was ours, so we'll we'll get this back. I mean, they owe us for all the sanctions that they've evade, so we come up with the math of twelve refineries.

Speaker 3

I've said this before, Scott, and I mean, I don't know what your opinion is, but I really feel like the stuff with Venezuela also us like starting food fights with like you know, Denmark over Greenland and things like this. It feels like we have done the math on bigger problems, real problems China, Iran, Russia, and we've concluded, well, America really can't do too much there. If we do, it'll have a tremendous amount of blood and treasure will have

to be spent. And so we're like going after like the low hanging fruit, like beating up on you know, our allies sometimes or just people who are paining the ass like Maduro as a kind of like compensation of like, look I did something.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, we're kind of the kind of the lunch room dick, you know, let's let's let's shake down the weak people. The ones that we're okay with are just like, you're an asshole. I'm just not going to deal with you right now. You piss off somebody here, you piss off somebody there. You don't care about the ramifications. I just think that we would be I guess it's okay to walk with a big stick, but be aware of who else you're pissing off and what those ramifications are.

I don't I don't have a problem if it was in our strategic interest to seize oil feelings, claim territory. I mean, okay, if that's what we want to do, and that's what we want to be, but you can't do it isolation, and you can't do it without those second and third order effect understanding of what that's going

to happen. And I don't know that we necessarily consider those second and third order of I mean, just as something as simple as just, you know, it's holiday season, just sitting on my couch half the time, just you know, should be writing. But I'm looking at tiktoks and looking at it Instagram stuff, and I'm seeing how many of these distilleries are closing up and affected because of what

Understanding U.S. Involvement in Venezuela

happened with Canada and now Canada, you know, because of the tariffs that took miss out. Okay, now you've got the same thing happening with some farmers. You're you're looking at a lot of different things where you're spinning the rhetoric of what it's going to do, but the actual how it's going to impact things ends up being much worse in most cases. And I think that that, you know, Venezuela's just yet another example of Okay, you know we're gonna blow up a boat. Yes, I mean sure, there's

going to be some rules of engagement that that's done. Again, not my problem, not going to harp on that, because it's written in law what you can and can't do. But you're talking about maybe you know, three five, one hundred people right there, but what is that? What are you really trying to achieve? And you're spinning this as a major problem, but yet anybody should be reading to

understand that that's not a massive problem. If you really want to address that drug problem, it's got to be someplace us, if you're really looking at it from the international lens of saying, you know, guys, we've tried, we've tried to sanction Venezuela. We've tried to sanction Iran, they haven't done anything. What we're going to do. We're going to take an oil vessel because that's due to us. Okay, we all agree that we could sanction this. That's what

we're going to do. We're going to take this. I think that makes a lot more sense on the world stage. Then. Fully, shit, we got fentanyl coming into our country, and so we're going to blow up a bunch of these boats, kill a bunch of these peop people. We're gonna have some air strikes on their main line because it's it's a problem. Everybody else but us realizes that that's not a mess problem.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think we've done a really tough job in the media and everywhere else, the people that know what they're talking about basically trying to uh explain what the fuck it is we're doing there. And frankly, like John Q Public me being one of them, we I don't give a fine fuck what goes down in Venezuela. Gonna be honest, right, like, is that gonna help my freedom

or my pocket my pocketbook or my bottom line? No, you know, and if you really even look at it, it's like, yeah, there's no fent at all coming in from Venezuela. Most of the most of the precursors come from China. It's like, and most of it comes in the bulk of the drugs that come in from Mexico. So are we saying we're gonna do this to Mexico too?

Speaker 5

Is that the move? Like, no, We're not gonna do that shit. Like so it just seems like this, like.

Speaker 1

This just side quest for what reason. I have no fucking clue. And like you look at the new national security strategy, you know, focusing more on like the region and Central and South America and our hemisphere, and it's like you said, JT, it's like more like, yeah, we're gonna bully around the people we know we can bully without there even being any issue whatsoever, because you see,

The Complexity of Military Interventions

we're kind of backing away from like our traditional allies with Europe. There's a clear enemy in Europe and that's Russia, and we're just letting them do whatever they want. And it's just like, yeah, let's just bully the people we

can bully, you know, Like that's easy. It's not gonna be that much of bandwidth taken up and we could post videos on social media of US being the dominant US military that's stopping the drug trade the eight percent of the drugs that come from Venezuela without anything fucking changing.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think I would respect a lot more if again, you know, we we said these are these are the reasons that we're doing this, and by deposing their leader, we have the international back. But and this is what we're communicating to the press, is we recognize in the short term that area is going to have an increase in violent crime. We know they're going to have an increase in smuggle we know there's going to be an

increase in drug transit. We know there's gonna be more money laundering, we know that there's gonna be more immigrants coming to the US. And of those those areas, there's gonna be a fragmentation of our groups and an opportunistic cartel expansion. But this is our plan on how to deal with this, and I think that makes a lot more sense, especially if you are going to say, yeah, we're going to send a bunch of troops also down there.

You know, my friend was remarking about, you know, in nineteen eighty nine when we went took over Panama, there's Operation just Cause, and he was joking that this time it's going to be called Operation just because. I don't know. I don't know who's I don't know who's doing, you know, the planning. I don't know who's who's doing some of the the understanding of stabilization, and you know, how you're going to deal with entrenchment of criminal governance that might

persist in there. I mean, those are the type of things that you know, usually if you're going to disrupt something, you should you should have a good plan. I do.

Speaker 3

I don't know, but I will have to ask to see something may have changed very recently. But up until very recently, when I've asked people in the special operations community, they say that they have contingency plans, you know, that are on the books, you know, collecting dusts like they do for many things. But they're like, no one's actively planning for Venezuela, Like that's not a thing we're doing

unless they're all b asking me. There's there isn't like a planning cell that's like trying to put something together right now.

Speaker 2

No, And it's I mean, look, it's not sexually work. That's how I got That's how I got involved with covering Venezuela decades ago now because at the time I

The Role of Hezbollah and Criminal Networks

when they were looking for us, I'm a Binlat. I was assigned to looking for him, you know, not physically being there in Iran. And that's how I understood all of the the bonnyards and kind of mapping out on the social structures that then took me to Hezblat and

I got an understanding of that. So when somebody said, when we got a tasking of a few different areas and somebody's like, who understands Venezuela and what is going to focus on that, you kind of look around the room and nobody's raising their hand because they didn't understand and who gives care about Venezuela. So I'm like, well, if everybody's gonna be fighting for these other things, I'm gonna raise my hand because I actually know that Iran is going to be in so let's see what we

can dig around. So I knew nothing about it, and then you know, two years later, I knew everything you never wanted to know about. Venezuela has a lot I ran and all the cartels kind of coming together and then the banking things. But just because there are links doesn't mean that there's strong links and there are bigger fish out there, which again kind of goes to the

whole idea of why people don't care about Venezuela. And if you dealt with Sock South, if you dealt with SOCOM, if you dealt with Jaysock, you've dealt with the agencies. I mean, they didn't care that much. And again because you didn't have that much ability to operate, we didn't have that much intel. So even if we have something on the shelf, that is so going to change, especially when you're dealing with what Venezuela actually is, which is

logistics and the financial platform, that changes vastly. And so if we're thinking about Venezuela having weak institution, uh, military, militarized corruption, uh, the illicit gold become, you know, the shadow trade that goes into you know, the sanctions and the various routes. Those things all have to be considerations and every time that they're disrupted, they change. So you have to have intel on those and you have to have current intel so that you can fix your books.

Who's got that? Do you k are they sharing it with us. No, so where we getting that intel? We don't have it.

Speaker 3

It's interesting that like these sort of like Hezbalad nexus in this part of the world has been like a hobby horse of General Flynn, going all the way back to his d I A days.

Speaker 6

Uh.

Speaker 3

It's just interesting that this sort of thought process is still sort of haunting us. At least when I've talked to people, they've said, We've looked and looked and looked, but we can't find this has Bolah threat to America emanating from South America.

Speaker 2

No, And I mean, look, let's church here a little bit. You had a migration wave that happened in the early nineteen hundreds from Lebanon to Venezuela. Okay. Then you had another wave that came around nineteen fifties and seventies. Okay, I won't say they didn't assimilate, but they went to their pockets. You know, that's how immigration went, you pockets. And again these are merinite Christians phredominantly. And then in

the fifties and seventies you had yet another wave. A lot of those cases you're demonizing people because they have some different beliefs, different cultural beliefs, and I think that as they started assimilating into the communities, into politics, into commerce, their status rose. They became the haves versus the have nots or the have lessons, and the have lessons thought it was very easy to, I think, demonize them in many ways and say, you got all these fucking Arabs

running around, what does Arabs translate to you Muslims? Okay, but they did. They cast it in the reciprocal of it not being like ten percent of the population being Muslim, it made it like ninety percent, which was the Christians to demonize that and create that. Yes there are hes

Sanctions and Their Effectiveness

a lot of rocks. Yes there are family ties, but it's more like old Italian mafia where just had you had networks of these families to do better for the diaspora, that was first and foremost in many of these families, Lebanese first, okay. And you got to make your money, and you've got to because there's so much corruption in

the area. You've got to tighten it so that you keep dash it, so that you keep everything together, and you keep that money insolent, and you keep the power continue to go and you keep you know, mixing with other tribes, other or clans, other families and things like that. So I think that a lot of anybody that used to have something doesn't have it now is going to talk about somebody in a bad light if you can get them out of there and or you know, demonize them.

And I and so whether it's Flynn, who again I really used to respect him on the intel side and I and I thought that he gave some of that rigor to the intelligence analysis that was going. But I don't think I think that you know as much as often as the case, especially in the operations community, you can have you know, the book readers passing up the

intel as much as you might have. But if someone's like mm hm, like that's telling me no, okay, okay, your gut's telling you so, and my Thatt's going to tell me how we rebuild this, you know, And that's the problem is we're dealing with too many guts and hunches and thoughts versus you know, the actual resources to understand how that all fits together.

Speaker 3

Shall Lobby Part two?

Speaker 2

Right? I mean, Jack, you and I years ago, I think we're talking about Confessions of an Economic Kidman.

Speaker 6

Oh yeah, book, awesome book, because that is how old school espionage and if you're really going to break down a nation and rebuild it or just you know, let it get fucked up and then let somebody else come into a power vacuum, that's how you do it.

Speaker 2

But you've got to have it with like real economists, real social scientists, political experts. I mean, that's that's how you create these vacuums. Or that's how you disrupt something and then put it into your own pocket. But you do it with international law, you do it with banking law, you do it with organized structures that you don't disrupt things which pisses off other countries. That's how you can

do it on this life. That's all. We could do it with Venezuela still, but you don't do it this way.

Speaker 1

Isn't that kind of what we have been doing with Venezuela over the last like since Hugo Chavis. You know, like sanctions and you know they don't really have a ton of the economic like latitude really right with sanctions and stuff like that, like we are trying to limit their economy and doing a pretty good job.

Speaker 5

I would say at it.

Speaker 2

Well, I think a lot of times sanctions are used as a hammer, and I don't think that they're used as so much of a guide. And I think sometimes you take that the low hanging fruit, which are often you know, high up people, and you'll target them and you'll say, okay, you're we're sanctioning you, but not understanding the layers underneath them that allows them to evade the sanctions.

China's Influence in Venezuela

And in many cases, I think we do know that, so the sanctions that we put on don't necessarily have tea or you would be doing it in a different way, targeting different groups, truly disrupting things. You wouldn't allow funds to exist. I mean, let's if you again, I don't I know that most of your people aren't going to give a shit about listening to banking operations here. But banking money transfers between institutions can be stopped with sanctions.

And there's a lot that you allow to go on and from Venezuela because that money goes into different people's pockets that you want to keep. So you really don't put a hard sanction. It's it's kind of a soft sanction where it's like, yeah, you're rere labeling you and maybe you can't go to Switzerland and get open up a bank account, you know, under your true name, but you can you can still have have your your your

finances facilitated. So so no, I don't. I don't think that we've do a real good job of really harnessing them and then putting the squeeze on. And a lot of times to do that, you have to have international consensus with other people to do it. You can't do it on your own because all of a sudden they're like, well fuck the US, they said, I can't do it, but I can do it with the rest of the world.

Speaker 1

Yeah, you think China would have an issue with what we're doing. I mean because you know, leaving the tank one of the tanks that we snatched was Chinese oil, all right, Uh, I don't know, and what like how deep China is involved with Venezuela. Can you give us like a little bit of insight on that.

Speaker 2

No, not, because I don't want to. I don't know. I don't know that much about it. And how they are I notice in some of the talie ins between countries, but I don't know politically psychologically, how they react and

Speculating on Future Developments

what levers that they pull. I just don't know. Enough about them. I my my my gut without being informed by by the information knowledge is they probably have different ways around things. Also because I do believe in many cases they're probably smarter and more well equipped to operate on different levels and dimensions of things than can. We probably give them credit for or the people that understand it and give credit. Maybe it doesn't go up. So

I don't know. I I guess my gut again. Yeah, just just talking out of my ass would be they're probably looking if this is stopped, they'll probably figure out another way around it. Yeah, but I don't know what type of pressure they really would where they focus in another way and we're just too stupid to realize it.

Speaker 1

So what happens next? I want some speculation. What's your gut value?

Speaker 2

I think that we would continue some of the bullying for the for maybe the next six months, maybe a few more strikes. I would say, if the international community pushes back on US hard in such a way that they also almost sanction US or create some economic lovers to punish US for some of these things, I think we'll continue doing it. But I think if they wanted

to slow US, I think we would back down. If if it was something really impactful and things that the news coverage would glom onto and at the general public would glom onto and say, we're we're now getting screwed because of this. Cut it out if we can get some justification, and I would, I would if we really want it for the purposes of Iranian disruption. I think we got to go back to our own friends. I think we got to work with Canada. I think we got to work with the UK and understand what those

impacts are. And I think we need to stop talking about the stupid Narco ship. Okay, if we really talk about it from the standpoint of corruption, international trade that's being disrupted, instability. I think those are legitimate things that other people would rally. I mean the UK was not disputing corruption, you know, the financial crime, sanction breaking. I mean those are things that they would rally behind. I mean, if we did decide, you know, we're open to other people.

Plus I could see that I don't see anybody else in the community getting involved like Iran. You know, what are they going to really do? I don't see China or Russia really doing much of anything. I think that if they're really looking to seize this and claim that

they can't. I think if they do do it, If they do Seese oil fields and they do start doing I think it's going to be more of a robbery than anything else, because I do not believe they have the people to put into place to fix the refineries, to fix that business. I mean, right now, it's some old, antiquated systems. We've got better technology than Iran for a

JT Patten's Literary Ventures

lot of this. If we went in there with a business purpose, together with the UK and said, hey, you guys have this problem because of sanctions. We're going to get involved, but we're going to bring in new technology. We're going to allow you to have more jobs. We're going to expand this. Yes we want a part of it, but we're going to help your community. I think that would be a whole lot better. And oh, by the way, we gave you to president and she's on board two.

I think if that happened, I do think Maduro is probably in the next year, are going to leave. I don't think it's going to be forceful. I think will negotiate that. Where he goes, I don't know, but I think he would get most prony's I'm sorry.

Speaker 3

Cuba, that's where he's going.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and Cuba could be next for us too.

Speaker 5

Yeah. I was going to say Cuba's on the list, bro, so.

Speaker 2

It may be. It may be a short though, so does China. Yeah, I don't think we can poke that one, but I don't know. This was kind of fun I had. You know, I've got this series of these military thrillers, and some years back I had written about Venezuela, written about the he Bala thing and the Iran stuff, and so it's kind of fun to see this kind of coming to fruitional where it's like, Okay, some of the

things we talked about are now coming to light. Because I tried to pick something that was a little bit less, you know, overdone, and the agency and DoD didn't have much problem with what I had, especially with a lot of stuff I had about Marguerite Island just being you know, bullshit and stuff. None of that was redacted, so that also kind of gives me an idea and half that

stuff that they don't know, don't care about. So the things that we're glombing onto now saying it's it's so secret, we just can't even share any of as shit bullshit. I was able to write a book.

Speaker 3

About Yeah, JT. I mean, you've written out a whole series of really good novels. Anything you want to announce the folks out there about the future. You know, your big thing is the TFO series, right, what the protagonist.

Speaker 2

Is what Drake Yeah, Drake wol Yeah yeah, asot guy moved into TFO intelligence sport activity but you know old name TFO. No. I've been slow because, honestly, I guess it's because I write some more so much of these like kind of esoteric things that most people don't know about, don't care about that They're probably like, I don't really want to buy it. So I'm still trying to continue the series. I think I think it's fun because I don't think a lot of folks know much about those things.

I think now with technology the way it is and understanding surveillance and how we do things and disrupting it, I think it's pretty cool. I just haven't gotten the traction, so it's you kind of look at it and think, well, I could write more books, But am I doing it myself? Yes? I can, but I can to be doing more fun things like scuba diving and fishing with my money than just putting more books out there that nobody's really looking

to buy. So I don't think I've got more than about ten thousand typical readers on it, but if there was the interest, yeah, I would definitely continue it. I think that I have now been out of the cleared space for enough time where I think the agency and DoD is getting to be a lot easier on me and a lot of the stuff that I just don't know. So it truly is fiction and so that's coming out.

But I still, you know, am an intel guy at art, so I could research the shit out of it and create something that is feasible, plausible, And I think it was like that they used to ding me for analytical inferences. But now that I've had more time out, it's easier to be able to put those things together. So I'd love to continue the series I've been writing on one I'll send me and I think that you know, could be kind of interesting when it when it comes out,

but but we'll see. But yeah, definitely helps if if folks read more and buy more, I can write more.

Speaker 3

Where can people go to find your books?

Speaker 2

Amazon? Door stops, it's uh and I think you get them. You pretty much get him in audio, print and uh and in digital. I've got the Horror series out folks that like New Orleans. I had to take a little break for a while when they weren't as happy with

me doing some things. I created another like Alzheimer's book, Alzheimer's Horror, Psychological Horror, that was kind of got to this Nordic spin this year, I called the weavers Web, but thinks of putting a pin on that one and getting back into a little bit more of the the Opposente Intel things.

Speaker 3

You're also our black market giraffe dealer.

Speaker 5

Yeah, you're the originator.

Speaker 2

Yeah, dude, I so wish that Grange would have said something.

Speaker 3

About that, but I would I should have asked him.

Speaker 2

I was like, I forgot that was recorded, and so I was like binging, I'm like what I saw, and I'm like, dude, ask him about the giraffes. Yeah, and we had some good times.

Speaker 5

Yeah, so JT, how much is a baby giraffe going for me?

Speaker 2

Remember now, I always have to look back, but I think we're getting They were getting in the thousands. So I mean, for those that don't know about this, I had come. I had done a financial crime investigations company and UH and Grain should sent me out there. This was when we were you know, in the commercial business. And then after a while, courts pointed Range to take over the the uh the court rulings and and we kind of ran and you know, kind of ran that

company for a little bit. And there was a guy named doctor Brown and and so if you look under Houston and doctor Brown and some things, that's where you know, the guy had like a compound animals when his estate was going down. I mean, he was complicit in a lot of things that they found too. And so we're trying to save the company where a lot of people were actually working and there were some really good things happening, and that's where it involved selling so wild and not

as you meat it was. They're trying to do good things, but we also ran into the Russians and drugs and guns and all kinds of stuff. So cool little gig for about a year.

Speaker 5

It's wild, guys. Check out JT's books there.

Speaker 1

I'll have links in the description as well, UH and your website to UH wolf house dot com. That link will be in the description there as well. Check them out it's a great book series. Also, if you want to know more about JT, he did a Team House episode. It's got to be now four or five years ago. Yeah, I'll throw a link there down in the description as well. Uh, this is awesome, Jack. You got anything to add?

Speaker 2

Jack?

Speaker 1

Of course, the high Side he's a high you know, high falutin writer, journalist and stuff like that. He's got a new book coming out in June, very exciting. I'll put a link to the description down in the I'll put a link down in the description for The High Side and for the new book that's coming out. So check them out there and do us a favorite support to show. You can get both eyes On Geopolitics and the Teamhouse ad free and early by going to patreon

dot com slash the Teamhouse. Thank you, guys, a pleasure. Hey, let's do this again.

Speaker 2

I'll be here, take care. Thanks guys.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys, I want to tell all of you today about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both the Teamhouse podcast, the eyes On podcast, and the high Side news outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor.

Speaker 7

The newsletter is going to be once a week.

Speaker 4

It's going to come into your inbox and you're going to get the most current podcasts on eyes On in the Teamhouse and whatever's topical or current on the high side. So it's another way for us to get the information out to you as social media algorithms are pretty iffy and you never really know what you're gonna get. So this is a once a week email. It'll slide into your inbox and it will have you know the greatest hits of that week.

Speaker 7

It's really good man. Checking it out.

Speaker 4

The website for it is Teamhouse Podcast dot kit dot com, slash Join Teamhouse Podcast dot kit dot com slash join.

Speaker 5

Uh.

Speaker 4

You go there and you enter into your email list or you enter your email into the little thing on the website and you're good to go.

Speaker 7

And that'll be it. So we really appreciate your support and hope you'll consider signing up.

Speaker 5

Where's the link.

Speaker 7

The link will also be down in the description if you're looking for

Speaker 4

It there, and that's Teamhouse Podcast dot Kit, k I t Kilo India Tango dot com backslash Join

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