¶ Start
I'm sorry.
Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geo Politics. I'm here with mcmulroy. I'm de tacos. Uh. Before we get into it, let's do a solo favor and go and check out mix new podcasts. The Pub and the Porch is available on Spotify and Apple and anywhere else you get your podcast. I'm gonna put a link in to description. It's The Pub in the Porch Applied Stoicism, So if you're interested in stoicism and learning more, check it out. It's a good show. I listened to it
every week, so it's it's super good. Uh. He's got a great co host, Adam. Uh, it's an awesome pot so check it out. Mick, you got it.
How are you doing good? A lot going on in the world and I'm getting ready to travel.
Yeah again.
So yeah, this is uh, this is gonna be an interesting conversation today for sure.
Like you said, a lot happened. Uh, it's literally like it all happens within like twenty four hours of itself. It seems like it just piles on. We know, obviously right now what's going on. We see that the ceasefire
¶ The Gaza Conflict: Ceasefire Breakdown and Humanitarian Crisis
in Gaza seems to be collapsing. Let's start with Gaza fuck it because it's like the most most like the most prescient. I guess yesterday the State Department released unnoticed or a statement or whatever saying that Hamas had violated the ceasefire because they were planning an attack on Palestinians today in the morning. As we're recording, it's ten forty eight am Sunday, nineteenth Eastern where Israel started bombing. I believe they hit Rafa and I believe they hit Gaza
City just recently too. They also closed the Rafa crossing as well. I think that was yesterday. What's the deal? Question that I asked to make offline was why would the US State Department announce it and not Israel announce it? Is it to like for cover for like a little bit more like you know, see, we're not just doing this ourselves, you know, laterally like the you know, US is backing us, like just for like a little bit of cover. You what's your take? Where are you at with this? So?
First of all, I think that we might see an announcement today unfortunately from Israel about the restarting of combat operations. So it's it's it's somewhat breaking down. I think the US made the statement, don't know, but we are the ones that coordinated it. It's statements specifically to the guaranteurs of the ceasefire agreement that was signed in Charlmel Shake. So that's one reason. And the other one is President
Trump has said we many times. I don't think that means he's gonna insert US forces into Gaza, but it might be that he's trying to be, you know, strategically ambiguous, whereas a moss doesn't know that he's not talking about land in the you know, a mew on the coast of gazam right. So I don't know. But this is first of all, it's it would be horrible. This conflict needs to come to an end. Thank goodness, we got the hostages out, but there's also a dire humanitarian situation
in Gaza, which could be alleviated. I just got a note that there's one hundred and ninety thousand metric tons of food ready to go into Gaza. So it's not for a lack of food, it's for a lack of getting it to the people who need it. And we're going to hit the winner here in a month, and it's only going to get worse. So we everybody should want this pathlic to come to an end, but it doesn't look like it's going to do that. And one of the reasons is the same reason why it started. Right it's hamas.
Yeah uh, as far as like the aid goes one hundred ninety thousand tons or pounds, you know it was it tons you.
Said ton tons?
Yeah, that's a fuck ton of aid as far as that goes. Has that stopped as well? Like since the Rafa crossing got closed, and now that the cease fire seems to be going as ship is that now kai bosh, Like they're not delivering aid anymore.
So from what I've seen, they started strong, right, like nine hundred trucks went in, Like seven hundred trucks went in. And now because of this issue with the non uh you know, produce of the deceased tossages bodies, which seems like it would have been part of the negotiation process they like.
And I think said they had they had delivered some right, like I think just yesterday delivered too as well.
Yes, but it seems like part of the negotiation process would be and you actually deliver on what you're promising. So if it's deliberate, then that's obviously a breach of the of the agreement. If it's they don't even know where they are, well they knew they didn't know where they were when they made the agreement. Yeah, no either way. Because of that, and now it looks like there's attacks AGAINSTI the f forces in Gaza. It looks like they're going to cut the aid, yeah, to three hundred trucks
a day. So it's supposed to be six hundred on the agreement, and they're going to cut it to three hundred, which is not adequate.
No, yeah, not good. What's interesting is like, well, I don't understand why AID needs to be tied to any of this. It's so insane to me. I mean, we've been through it a bunch. Also, like it kind of feels like the whole ceasefire show in Egypt when they signed was kind of like for a show, to be honest,
¶ The Role of Hamas and the Future of Gaza
because like Nan Yahoo wasn't there, No Hamas representatives were there, So was it even a ceasefire that like people were really behind by the two combatants, because I mean obviously Hamas gave up, gave back the twenty hostages, plus did some deceased hostages as well. Israel's got to know that the majority of those other dead hostage are likely under the rubble, along with like probably one hundred thousand Palestinians.
I feel like we were just this was kind of set up to fail from the get go, and like Israel did whatever they could to get the hostages back, and that's great, but if you're Hamas and like, part of the deal was also disarming, I guess, even though like there was also some mixed back and forth in reports on in news reports saying that they didn't agree to it, they did agree to it, Like it doesn't seem like this was a completely fleshed out thing, and
like Israel said, yeah, we'll take the hostages back, and like Hamas literally, besides their aks and stuff, have no leverage whatsoever at this point, and Israel's really it's not really holding Israel back in terms of like they could just come back and level Gaza if they want. Now there's no hostages.
Yeah, they weren't really holding back before that. I think the long pole in the tent of this agreement has always been the disarming of the Moss it's obvious that's what Israel would require any country and their position would require the issue. Of course is Hamas ceases to be Hamas.
They're a terrorist organization without the ability to cause terror, right, So, like that's a good thing for the rest of the world, but for them to look at it from their perspective, they're essentially agreeing to end which would be a complete and utter defeat. Right, they have been defeated. But and so is all of Iron's proxies for the most part, except for maybe some of those hoothies up the mountains and the oven. But they have they have really strategically miscalculated.
Is a polite way of saying, yeah.
I'm as did. But it's not just that. It's also the fact that they're despised in Gaza, this concept that they're like the freedom fighters at all, the Palestinians rally behind. Hell, no, they kill Palestinians all the time. The former head Sinoar was known as the Butcher of Conunists for butcher and Palestinians in Conmunists, right, So, and you can see the videos and then just summarily executing people that they don't like. There's a lot of other there's a lot of people
in Gaza who really don't like AMAS. There's a lot of armed groups really don't. They come as if they disarmed, they're going to be an island.
Right, Yeah, they're fine.
Fine with me, but you know, from again from their perspective.
Yeah, from aspective of human survival, Yeah, it's like, why would I fucking do this? Yeah?
Right, So that's where that's where I'm afraid. It's made bright down is and there's no stability force that I've seen being set up to go in. So the alternative to the IDF right now appears to be nothing unless I'm missing something, and I hope I an't. There's also some reporting that, you know, the Egyptians have been training a Palestinian security force, so not a multinational force, but
a Palestinian security force. I don't know if they're ready to go into the middle of this, which could be a giant civil war, right right, you know, I mean they just might be one of they might be the good guys, but they might just be one of many armed groups fighting in Gaza.
Yah, there's a vacuum, right, A vacuum is going to be there, and someone's going to want to fill it.
Yes, and it's going to be the strongest will survive in the case of Gaza, And unfortunately, the innocent civilians are going to pay the price, and it's going to make it even more difficult even if Israel opened up all the gates and all the food. If there's I counted four three major groups other than a moss Actually, I think there's more than that, but four major groups that are armed and ready to fight and gossip.
Right now, what are those groups?
Uh, let's see, I can't remember the names up top of my head. Send in a car they are, yeah, I can send you away.
All like Islamic or like.
A lot of them are. Some of them are just came together, so they're the name of the families.
Mostly, I see.
Okay, so there's one of them that just means like a student, but that all the rest of them are families.
Yeah.
I think of Abu this and Abu that, you know, And I think some of them are set up just to protect their own Like if you know this, if this happened to New York City, you'd probably you know, get the militia of Brooklyn to defend.
Yeah.
So I'm not saying they're good or bad. They're just like, you know, this is the way Mad Max happens. And then some of them pray on you know, innocent civilians. So and then some of them are Islamic based, like Amas, and some.
Are like gang based, I should say, like criminals essentially criminal gangs and stuff.
Yeah, some of them are cri middle gangs. Some reportedly or you know, supported by Edge.
Yeah.
I don't know if that's true, but you can see it in the you know, the media reporting. I don't know if actor or not, but you know, from irregular warspective, that's I'm something. I'm sure they at least considered it, not not did.
I was just going to say, it's like that makes sense for them to I kind of you know, do that all right, so quick quick Google search and you correct me if I'm wrong. Obviously, TAMAS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for a Liberation of Palestine, and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
¶ Venezuela: U.S. Military Presence and Potential Regime Change
Right, there's more than that, and there's ones that I'm the ones that I'm thinking of all have names that look like are named after probably the you know, militia leader.
Yeah. I think there was I remember we spoke about it, probably a couple of months ago, the guy down south, I mean, I can't remember his name. I feel like we definitely spoke about it. So yeah, it's a ship I mean, for lack of a better word, it's a ship show. It sounds like in terms of like who's going to take over next? Like I can't see free and fair elections happening anytime soon.
No, no, no, it does. I mean again, the plan as laid out by the US is a solid, comprehensive plan that would greatly benefit the people of Israel and the people of Gaza.
In my opinion.
But it's it's going to be a hard slug because this really hang up is a just demlitarization of Hamas what just happened. And you know, there's there's also and that's that's also so Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE came out and said, if they don't de militarize, we're not paying for the reconstruction. So this is this is the lynchpin right here, demailitaration. They have offered them amnesty and save passage out of Gaza, which tells me that
they addressed the situation of them disarming. We'll just have to see if they do it and who will take them and where they go.
I don't know, Yeah, I mean I would think they would want that like negotiated and like set up logistically before they gave up any kind of weapons and stuff like that. I would think, I mean, that's what I would want. And like you're just kind of on your own whether you go to Iran or Qatar or wherever, because like the targets on your back and like lists and covert wise, you know, the targets on your back.
It is what it is. I don't give a shit if every single one of them gets clipped, as long as like women and children stop getting fucking smoked and bombed and starved, Like I don't you know. That's where my my liberalism kind of ends, you know what I'm saying, Like, uh.
Wow, yeah, these they're deplorable, but they we have to look at it from thetive only to the extent that it ends the conflict. So if they have to line them up and put a giant barge and they just hand in their aks, they get out of barge, and then they go to whichever country you would accept them,
which I imagine is going to be very difficult. Sure is, what are you going to do with all these And you know when they're gonna get there, they're gonna if they go to a rob they're just going to militarize them back and send them back out doing bearable ship. So it's a lot of it's it is as about as complex as you can get when it comes to negotiating, you know, demilitarization of any kind of.
Man. Insanely, it sounds insanely complicated. I mean, the last two years we've just been really talking about is IDF and hamas right as being like the chief combatants and frankly like they are, but it's like the internal politics of gods that sounds like an absolute just just like crazy mass of a you know, just lack of a better word, clusterfuck Frankly.
And I remember it's only twenty five kilometers like eight kilometers, y.
Yeah, jesus, It literally, like you said it before, it literally seems like mad max like total anarchy. Man. I just wish that like women and children and civilians weren't in the middle of this shit, because it seems like there's only about like maybe thirty thousand even less probably like not just Hamas but the rest of the players who are in fighting and stuff like that, and like totally destroying a place where there's two plus million people,
Like it's it's insane. It's not to really think about like the the sheer numbers of it.
It is. It is. It's fresh shot, and I used to come to an end. People need to get fed. Everything that that's in that twenty point plan needs to happen. We were and I think the vice presidents get on a plane to try to, uh try to make some some headway with this, because at least for my hearing, it's potential that the idea is really government announces that they're essentially going back.
To come yeah, and I mean to be fair for like the you know on the other side, like that right wing in the in in that LIQUD party or whatever, that coalition not just the LACUD party of the Gaviller's and the finance minister guy small Tricks. You know, they've been coming out and saying publicly like you know, we're going to keep fifty two percent of Gaza and start like settling it and stuff like that, which not optimal obviously,
with the people in power and stuff like that. It's just I feel like we were all happy a couple of weeks ago. I was kind of cynical obviously, and I'm not really surprised that this is happening this way. Like it's you know, they got the hostage back, which is like the it feels like the pressure on the Israeli government in power, like then Yahoo and his coalition has kind of ceased a little bit, only because like they got their living hostages back and some deceased ones.
Now I think I'm assuming that the Israeli population will be less likely to be totally against you know, just obliterating whatever is left of Gaza.
Now, yeah, that was the biggest pressure point on that Yahoo internally was the hostages, as you'd expect. But now he can say, look, we pulled back to the yellow line, we did our part, we started flowing aid. And I agree with the age to never be used as margaining
to warfare, but it is. And then they attacked us, so from the Israeli perspective, and they won't release all the twenty eight deceased hostages, so it's gonna be a lot less pressure on the hand internally, and you know, the only pressure really that's going to be remaining is the US and President Trump. And he does have i think influence over net and Yahoo that other president's US residents really didn't have. So that's probably because he's really
popular in Israel. So I mean, but is that going to be enough? And you know, if Hamas or any of these other groups keep attacking Israel, nobody's going to tell about to defend themselves, right, so we're not in a good spot. Hopefully, you know, we can get this back on track and the pressure put on it's really going to come down to Hamas has to leave, right, you know, they fall on our discussion. You know, the more you talk about it, they just have to believe.
And if they stay, they're not going to stay because they're in disarmed, because they'll be you know, they'll be summarily executed like that likes two other people. So they got to go. We got to find a place for him to go, and we got to find you know, a country as falling to take them and contain them. They have to be contained.
Tall Lass too, bro like who outside of Iran and maybe Qatar, but like I don't know if Qatar is down for like three thousand or so whatever hamask guys rolling up after what I know, there's a new security guarantee all that bullshit with the United States. But like Israel's bombed Qatar anyway, right, targeting the Mosque guys. So it's like, I don't know if Qatar's game for something like that. Understandably, shit, no doubt.
It, because that they internationed the beauty to do it, they would then do it and then they get blamed.
For how like yeah right, yeah, yeah in.
Those shoes and be like noah, they hosted the negotiations that led to this, and then they get blamed for hosting a MOSS, which if they didn't host.
A moss to negotiation, right, yeah, exactly.
I imagine they would say no. And then the issue is with Iran might take them, right, So there's no easy answers nothing, the ultimate answers. They have to be allowed to get us some of the grounds and that's maybe that's what the high strengthen is.
Also, you would think that like we would be hearing reports like there's negotiation happening now for you know, uh, the like the rest of Hamas fighters and whatever to go to Iran or somewhere else where, like cause, like even if like somebody approached Iran for like, hey you want to take these three thousand guys, They're gonna be like, okay, yeah, there are all proxies, but like what do we get? Right?
You know, they would let's go talk about the you know, the the agreements going on or not the agreements negotiations going on on a new nuclear agreement, right, yeah, so that they could play into that, so it could give them advantage there. Okay, I mean this is this is
where we live in right, nothing's come out perfect. That's not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good when it comes to in complex, there's there's a lot going on, and you know, good on all the people that are trying to make a hat.
Yeah, all right, let's move on to Venezuela. That was going to be the kickoff where we're going to talk about because what's going on with that is pretty nuts. But obviously what's going on in the last few days a couple of days with Israel and Gaza is taking precedence. So Venezuela, it seems like we're gearing up for some regime change. I'm not gonna lie to you. We have about ten percent of the US Navy in the Caribbean. I don't know what on vacation. I don't know what
they're doing. They're clearly getting ready for something. TF one sixty. This Special Operations Aviation Regiment seen you know, doing exercises about ninety miles out of away from Venezuela. That was reported last week and stuff. So clearly we have jaysach over there in some form another. It's just so much shit going on with Venezuela. It's insane to me. Another strike obviously on the traffickers and stuff like that, which seems to a couple of them have survived and stuff.
So like international law clearly is being violated. We don't really care about international laws the US. We didn't sign into it, so whatever, we kind of kind of make the rules. But at the same time we expect other countries to do it. So what's going on to me seems insane because like, yeah, Venezuela is a total narco state socialist. Maduro is bad. He stole the election. He's
a bad guy. There's we can name fifteen other authoritative dictators that have stolen elections that we haven't really gone after it all. And the whole premise of this was because of drug trafficking, and they're bringing fentanyl, and fentanyl is created in China and the vast majority, like vast majority of drugs that come into the United States from Mexico,
the Pacific and other countries. Columbia does the cocaine. So in terms of like drug trafficking, like, I don't know if we should really be going after like the number twenty two drug traf you know, cartel in the world. Maybe go after like the suppliers and stuff like that and the fentanyl. Having said like all that's happening, obviously, it's a ton going on. Another bit of news as well that it was reported, but it like it kind
of went under the radar, nobody really paid attention. The CIA's deputy director named himself General Counsel of the CIA, which is highly unusual. Obviously, the CIA is clearly spinning up to do what they do, uh, you know, taking direction from the president. So what the fuck is going on in Venezuela. Make what's your what's your like, what's your analysis on all this? Because it seems like we're really spinning up to go after it.
Yes, So to start with Venezuela, it used to be one of the most wealthy countries in Latin America and has more proven oil and gas reserves than Saudi Arabia. I was told fourteen trillion dollars worth, and somehow it's one of the poorest countries in the world. Thirty percent of their population relies on food aid and millions have fled. For those who think, you know socialism and autocratic socialism, good thing, there's your example. It's it's not working well.
So but to your point, yeah, you've got multiple destroyers, an amphibious ready group with a twenty second new You've got you know, squadrons and squadrons about thirty five. You've got you know, the Jaysak folks deploying. According to the media, that's not just to go after drug boats. You still need that level of firepower. So it's it's either sending a message or it's preparing to do something like a new Noriega slash Panama scenario. And that might be exactly
what they intend. So they put in it was even like strategic bombers flying around the post as well. Yeah, so it's either a giant show of force and intimidates Madureau to the point of leaving, right, stepping down and leaving, which would be a good thing, but most dictators don't do that, although they should. But it's clearly one of the other and my opinion, So if it's a show
of force, then we'll just see what happens. If it is, like, hey, we're getting ready to do something, I don't think they'd be. A long term occupation of Venezuela by the United States would be extraordinarily difficult. And from a president who's that he wants to get out of or is not consistent to address the agency part, you know, I obviously don't know,
or I wouldn't be talking about it. But like everybody else, I saw the President say that unusual, right, you don't usually announce covert right, yeah, actions, But he didn't say the details. So what I would say, just in general is the agency has the ability and the authority to collect intel foreign countries all the time. Hey, the President doesn't have to tell them, they go collect intel on them Russia, that it's just what we do. COVID action is different. So COVID action comes from a very I
think it's Section thirty ninety three. Not to geek out on it, but Kevin's title title fifty it talks about this specific authority that the CI can get from the President to conduct you know, paramilitary influence operations and the like ops, which obviously includes lethal depending on what the President writes in the finding. And most of the restrictions on the agency come from past president's executive works, which, if you think about it, means the current president can
simply change the change the former guide. I'm not saying did I have no information they did, but there is much less restrictions on agency activities than the military. There's no War Powers Act issue like under the War Powers Act, although I don't think any executive any president has ever acknowledged it as constitution. But on the War Powers Act, you have sixty days to do a military operation and then you have to pull out unless Congress Declaire's war
in Congress by a concurrent resolution. Under the War Payers Act can pull them out in three days they want to. That's not the case with the agency. Uh, that's not the case for covered action. They don't. They don't need congressional approval, only notification and oversight. So that might be and we don't know what he wrote in the finding, but.
That's what I was gonna say. Yeah, I was gonna ask, like, the finding is clearly not public.
So and it shouldn't be, but it might just be part of the bigger, you know, idea of just to intimidate Maduro. Now he you know, he sees the significant military forces right off the coast. Now he's worried behind every you know, corner is going to be you know, somebody there.
To smoke him out. Yeah.
Yeah, so I don't know, I don't know, but we'll find out if if this doesn't, if this is a bluff, we'll find out. And then after that he'll probably be even more bold. Ah if if it does work and either they remove him or he just leaves. You know.
The twenty twenty five but Peace Prize recipient Maria Karina, I saw the Machado is somewhere in Venezuela, all in regime, yes, because she's still awful elected president right, yeah, so super impressive lady, Right, She's still there risking her life somewhere in Venezuela. She was actually doing interviews from this you know or fight out yesterday. But it would be a great thing for the people of Venezuela. If Maduro was forced to leave or just left, for sure.
He's not going anywhere, bro. And he's also offered the America to cancel all contracts with China and Russia in terms of their oil and gas and doing everything he can to kind of like sweeten the deal. And it doesn't seem to be working. That's what makes me shake. It's more like, what, first off, for us to occupy Venezuela, we need at least what we had in or close to it in our Iraq, So you know, quarter one hundred thousand troops and stuff like that station somewhere getting
ready to go. I'm not saying marines are the best and they can funck shuit up really well, but a couple thousand marines, yeah, right, right, But a couple thousand Marines aren't going to occupy Venezuela, right, like.
The mew that's there is. Yeah, so they would have I think they're a raid for a surgical go in and just like Noriega, right, So it's just it's a very targeted one person, uh go in and take it out. Of course, that's going to require really good intelligence. And then it's done, but the occupation of Venezuela would be bohemoth, it would be make any sense, it would cost I don't even know how much money and lives, and I
don't I don't see that being the endgame. So it might be just either intimidation to try to get them him to step down voluntarily. Maybe they get them, Maybe they get him a really plush deal that he lives in some higher eye somewhere in the world for the rest of his life and it's immune from prosecution. That's a bad thing, but maybe it's a thing overall for the people of Venezuela.
It's just so wild to me, Like, what's the point
¶ The Complexity of Autocracy vs. Democracy
of this. I think that's just getting rid of another dictator. The world's chock full of them.
Yes, it is, unfortunately, and it's a growing issue. Right Ah, potocracy versus democracies, we're not We're not winning. Uh. There's plenty of indicators from Freedom House that were one of the other directions. I would say that Venezuela, in addition to the drug issue, which is a big issue, but most of the fatanah, for example, is produced in Mexico, not Venezuela. But the illegal immigration population a lot of it's coming out of it because of how died the
situation is there. So I think for a administration really focuses that as one of their main efforts, that's another part of this.
Yeah, that's a that's a lot more than just protecting our borders.
Mick.
I'd say, you know, going in with like a Jaysuck task force with you know, a couple hundred rangers and a mew to go and smoke, uh Maduro. I'm gonna be honest, because like, yeah.
Or they find them and they can they can do it without all that. Yeah, yeah, that's probably why. You know, if they did, and I'm sure they did, President Holson, they've given you know, one of the things that I think the agency can do. I guess again, I don't know what's going on right now, but if we could do something that would then prevent the need to send in a squadron from Jaysock, uh and potentially risk their lives, one I think big benefit of the agency to the
overall national security cops. If we can do something simply
¶ Hypothetical CIA Strategies for Maduro
that doesn't require you know, risking of how many helicopy pilots and assaulters and all that stuff.
Then yeah, yeah, we should make. I got a hypothetical for you. You ready for it? If you were the director of the CIA, right and the President gave you a finding to get rid of Maduro, how would you do it without giving away TTPs and stuff.
I don't think I can fuck give it. What I mean, I can't because.
That would be.
I think I would be sure in a bad space, I actually get a call from the director, Okay, tell I'm sorry.
I've never been in the agency and stuff. I don't have a top secret or didn't have a top secret, So I think I can say what I would do
and correct me. Tell me from hot or cold? So to avoid putting sending in Jay Sock or our guys with at one sixtieth and potentially having some of our guys die or all of them, because it's not like exactly it's not exactly a permissible environment, I would, obviously, with the CIA, you know, contact groups that are against Maduro and try and set up a way to get smoke them with those groups, like an assassination, but using them as a proxy. That's what I would do, am
I Hot? Cold? What do you think you know?
I think I think there's a lot of options right, we also have our own version of J sock. Sure, and then there's what do you call proxy you're talking about, is using another group? I would imagine, well, other than I don't want to get any specific, but I would say, you know, I think they're looking at everything. Yeah, there's no reason to like, I only want to do it one way, right, because you don't know if that's going to play out. You know, it might be they're putting
together collectively courses of action from the president decide. Yeah, and uh, you know, and when you do courses of action, you're looking at you know, the pros and cons put in a you know, common bacular and you know the cons of doing it with a small team means that you know, they're obviously very vulnerable. The coms of doing it with a giant you know, J shock machine one helicopter gets shot down and how many guys dealers? Right, So it's it's a big it's a big decision, or
or the drone scenario. Right.
I was going to mention that as well.
Yeah, you know, it's pretty well published. It's our hear he was smoked and cobbled right reading his newspaper and having this morning tea. Ah, So it's doable. It all comes down to exquisite intel.
Right. Let me ask you this, So pr wise or optics wise, would it be a major international incident if because like we obviously no one Dora is at all times, we probably haven't him completely penetrated in terms of his communications, or if we're not like we got to give more
¶ International Implications of Targeted Actions
money the NSA or they're not doing their job. But anyway where we could drop a drone right like where because the presidential finding will probably okay it and stuff like that, would you think the fallout of doing something like that internationally is worth that squeeze specifically drone striking them?
I mean you think about where we are now. I mean we're doing strikes on you know boats. Sure, if we've we've how many years have we now been doing targeted drone strikes on individuals?
Yeah, but that's one thing for it to be a trafficker or jihadi up in the mountains of Pakistan and another Yeah.
It's another to be a you know, a dictator who sure basically ignored you. I mean he doesn't have any validity as the president.
Then I completely agree. I'm not friending it like I wouldn't shut it here if he got smoke. I'm just saying, like, optics wise.
Yeah, I don't. I don't know that it does. I mean to the point of your question, D when you start taking out leaders, you don't like, that's gonna that's gonna cause issues, right, because that kind of makes it an open season on Yeah, going out the presence. But I just don't know that this crowd would. I think if I was in their shoes and that was what happened, I would point out that this person had all all
the opportunity to leave, you know what I mean. Uh, he could just get on the plane and go to Cuba, right, who's in Cuba's falling apart for the same freaking reason, too has been a disaster, and he chose not to. Therefore, this is the consequences. I'm sure there would be a lot of pushback around the world. I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't care.
I don't think they would care either. Yeah, I just say it like in terms of like setting a fucking dangerous precedent.
Yeah, that would be the That would be the contrary position. As you've now opened up target targeted killings, which is another.
Of whether it's he's the like elected president of Venezuela or not, he's still like the de facto leader there of ahead of state. Yeah, by force. I mean it is what it is. I mean yeah, uh man, it's tricky and I don't think it's worth to squeeze. I mean, I understand the Venezuelan immigration issue because I think there are number three in terms of countries like illegal immorants that come into the country, And I understand having our
strong border and stuff. But I don't know about like regime change and just leaving it like a fucking just a crater in the ground and be like, okay, guys, you guys figure it out, have fun. Frankly, I don't think that would stop narco narcotics from coming from transitting from Venezuela at all.
Yeah.
I think it just rules shit, the whole drug angle of it.
I mean drug a serious, but I think most drugs come out of Mexico and from the Pacific right right. But you know, nobody's gonna reasonally sleep over the marcour draftkers that are bringing fentanyl in the United States.
No, I wouldn't, you know.
But regime changes is because I saw people talking about the agency and regime. The agency, by my account, has overthrown eight governments, mostly in the fifties sixties, right, And then they you know, we had the Church Commission and they said, you know, I got to knock that off. Pebble points. The agency doesn't decide to do this. The president's for some reason, the agency gets accused to do with things like the rogue elephant, that was the term.
It's like, it's not the case. So if you have a problem with the policy, it's not really the agency anymore than you know, you blame the US army for.
Vietnam, right, Yeah.
And the other thing is we're not actually that bad at it. But the question is philosophical, like should should the you know, the strongest democracy in the world be overthrowing regimes because we don't like them.
Right, and like propping up one, yeah, and then propping up ones that we they are on our side, who happen to be dictators and brutalizer citizens exactly right. So it's a dirty game.
It's a dirty game. But you know, all I'd say is it's a game that the ultimately, the political leadership everyone's deciding, not.
The agency, you know.
And then they always bring up the bay of pigs. But you know, you try to do an amphibious landing with the forced ten times your side and have the air component pulled out from under your right before sure, right read the book they pict So again, I'm not just being parochial with the agency, but it's it's it's a broader question than this theory that the agency just runs around.
Yeah, I don't think in the case to be honest at all, because I met enough enough for you guys where it's like you guys go where you're pointed right and more or less right. I'm sure there's like moral qualms agent officer to officer and stuff like that in terms of what you're doing. But yeah, it's not like they you know, the CIA director wakes up one day he's like, you know what, let's let's fucking overthrow Venezuela today, right, like getting pointed by the president.
Oh yeah, it's totally at the direction, I'm sure with a lot of discussion between the senior captain members on the National Securities.
Yeah, at they make.
A decision right or all. But got the idea that it's it's some kind of vogue about the ages.
Just waking up one day and like, let's just do this when we're bored. We got this budget, you know, burning a hole in our pocket. Let's fucking use it. No, like there's yeah, for somebody to think that's the case is like they're just naive.
Yeah, but of course if it goes south and it's a completely about it. The other part of that is that a lot of times the agency's hand and stuff that nobody else can fix.
You, right, right, So yeah, here's a building situation.
Right, we can't figure out how to put the fire out, the d D doesn't want to do it, diplomats can't
¶ Zelensky's Visit to the White House
resolve it. Here's the burning building, right, good luck? So yeah, yeah, but anyway, so I don't know what the finding is or even if there was a finding maybe, but the President I think I don't think he made a mistake. I think he wanted Maduro to go look in every shadow and be scared that you know, it's curtains, even if if it.
Isn't the case. Yeah, So we'll see what goes down in the next couple of weeks. Obviously, we'll keep it close eye, all right. Last bit of news, uh Zelenski was at the White House on Friday. I feel like it's I mean, which is crazy. It's only Sunday, right, and it feels like he was there like a month ago. I think the main topic was to talk about long range missiles tomahawks, presumably,
and it didn't seem to go well. Interesting thing that came up in the twenty fifth hour before the day before the meeting was that President Trump was going to talk to President Putin before the meeting for some fucking reason,
let me think so the bottom line. Also, what I also noticed when I watched a little bit of like the press gaggle in that room was like some of that right wing press is still pretty fucking pretty kind of hostile towards Zelenski, and it's like I just don't understand it, especially you know, America first, and you know don't give money away, but we just gave forty billion dollars Sargantina for a bailout, so it's like pretty selective
in term. And I would argue that giving Ukraine what they need in terms of armaments is better off because they are an actual democratic companies company country. Even though they're corrupt and their corruption was high and all that stuff. They were invaded, right like by a more powerful, aggressive, imperialistic colonizer. So I think it should be real easy
for this. I don't understand what the friction is there. Anyway, Putin and Trump are set to meet as well in Budapest, which is kind of fucking ironic, and Trump gave Putin another two weeks. It's been two weeks for like fucking four months. So what do you got?
So the qurtance of tomahawks right, very very effective weapons system. I think the loftoons can go.
Fifteen hundred miles, yeah, it's like twenty five hundred kilometers.
Yeah, and the Block four like a thousand miles. But they're you know, they are c based. There used to be a ground based version of it, and I think they're probably going back to trying to find, yeah, ground based way to launch them. I guess they could probably remove I.
Think we do have because I spoke with I spoke when I talked to Andy about this. Andy had like a really good coverage. You could check out that video. We did a short video about what it would be like. Uh that the our majority of our tomahawks are a sea base right from from subs and and ships. But we do have a ground based variant, but they're more
limited in supply. Essentially. The Europeans did say that they can make something that will allow it to shoot from the ground, like they have some kind of system that works that way. But you know, there are some limiting factors to all this.
Well, I hope they're building it now that they can actually eat whoops, may get a quieter area. So on the on the reach though, if you if you give them and they can figure out how to launch them, either by some kind of C platform or AH or ground based platform. There's about two dozen air bases in range, all right, That's why foots freaking out. It really opens up the targets, and I think there's hundreds of other military installations and energy infrastructure, and they'll be able to
hit that they can't now. So that's why it's so important. Uh you know, Boutin's like, oh, these are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Well, yeah, so were all the missiles you've been shooting at nurseries, schools and hospitals. Right, so, so on the standard Russian response, major escalation and then they're going to throw on nuclear weapons. They said that about F sixteen's II Mars. They said about jab they said about j Yeah, right, So I don't know why
we publicly deliberate this stuff. I would just I would just do it. I mean, I'm not charged. But as soon as when they lined up to go into Ukraine and we had really good intelligence they we're going to do it, we should have just announced we're going to give them everything they need to win. So it's your decision. It's your decision Russia to invade your neighbor and then and then we would stop with this whole like hand raking and clutching of pearl of pearls every time we
decide to do this. I think potentially that this summit or whatever we're calling it in Budapest, that the US may say, look, you obviously asked us not to give them tomahawks. We won't. If you have a ceasfire, you stop fighting and you come to the negotiation table and goodwill, and I would hope they'd also put on there secondary sanctions. Yeah,
so you know, we don't want to do it. We don't want the war to expand we want the war to cease, But it's your choice whether to have a sea far if we don't, and we go through this summit and b doesn't agree to anything and the war continues. Then this is totally playing into Prudin's and he gets the public stage with the President of the United States, which he wants because he's essentially an international pria and
he has no consequences. So I hope they put the consequences on the table and say, either we get to this summit and there is a ceasefire or tomahawks are flowing and by the way, there's a German variant. Yeah, they can send them. They should be sending them to step up Europe and we should be fixing fixing it so they can launch them off the ground. Right now, we need to prepare for that, and I mean they have they have some time platforms and being watched form.
But either way, and there's gonna be we got to start mass producing him because here's only a finite him out of him. Uh, and we don't want to deplete our stocks too much, but it needs to happen, especially if Putin comes out of this Budapest summit and it's
¶ Negotiation Strategies and Consequences for Russia
it's the same situation.
Are they saying that Budapest summit is going to be just Trump and Putin or is a Lenski there too?
So I've heard Trump Putin and Zelensky in one room putin. Another scenario is Putin in one room with Trump and then John skan another learn with Trump. So he goes back and he's going back and forth. Yeah, I don't care so much about the personal dynamics of you know.
Uh.
I think what's necessary is to give real consequences to rush and say when when the president goes in there says okay, this is your chance. You don't want tom Ox cease fire today, ceasefire, freeze line. So let's start negotiation. If I walk out of here again and you do what you did to me in Alaska, tomahawks are flowing, the German version of it's flowing. And the Sanctioning Russia Act, which Senator Thune wants to pass, it has eighty five sponsors.
Like that's unheard of. Just you could he could just call a Thune and say, you know, vote now.
Yeah, And it's just too bad. This administration's Ukraine policy's completely bipolar. Let's be honest, because three weeks ago Trump was like, yeah, they need to win, you know, and now it's like they need to stop supposedly there, I think Wall Street Journal reported that the phone call that Trump and Putin had together yes on Friday before the Zelenski meeting, Putin said he wants all of the Nesks, even though he doesn't have all of the Nesk, like,
he's not occupying all of the next. People are speculating that he's saying that because he wants the war to continue, because obviously Russia's economy is war based now and he can't lose face at all. Right, He's trying a legacy shop and he doesn't care how many fucking Russians he does he kills to do that, you know. Uh So it seems like their demands are completely fucking crazy, just out of control.
Yeah, and I think the US should just say what is reasonable. They not care because they won't negotiate good faith. They're gonna ask for like everything, and and for Ukraine to disarm, you know, some ridiculous ship like that, for every NATO member to swear to God that Ukraine will ever be allowed in. Yeah, right, so disarm and not join NATO. I mean, it's just gonna it's gonna get ridiculous. And they don't even have a problem being ridiculous. They
just look right at you and be ridiculous. So the US seeds saying, no, you can drop all that, and here's here's the plan that we think Solonsky can actually get approved by the Ukrainian people. And if you don't, because that's he has to do that, right, he can't just sign away parts of his country. So here's the plan, it's somewhat accessible. Let's cut through the crap. And then if you say no, we're going to give them everything they need to win.
Yeah, and we're going to start giving them your money that's tied up in.
Europe, that too, all the all the all the money in Europe, I think all totals are on foreign and.
Well that interest is accruing, huh.
Yeah, yeah, maybe they can use that to buy our Tomauks and we can just start pumping them out.
Right.
Can you imagine if there were just thousands of tomahawks had ended. It's not just the military installations, it's all their ability to you know, produce energy to funnel war.
Yeah, and they're already hitting those areas too, right, they're hearing a ton of refiners and stuff like that. Supposedly around forty percent of the production. It's down forty percent.
So yeah, well they have attackings in they're a medium range and they've actually mastered so yeah, yes again, you know, if Russia doesn't like it, they can just stop fighting and they can stop trying to take over.
Yeah, I don't understand. Also, I saw another report where we were like to there was some negotiations going on about easing sanctions on Belarus. It's like, what fuck Belarus. You know they're complicity, so we'll see what goes down. I mean, it just feels kind of hopeless and like Zelensky's gotta be tie. That guy needs a fucking vacation. I feel like, you know, like this is brutal, and I mean think about the people that are being killed
in the Russian attacks day in, day out. Yeah, Russia needs a peepee whack, a bad one so they can unders learn it, like learn how to like act in this world. Anything else.
Oh that's a lot, buddy.
I know we did have a lot going on. I want to remind everybody makes got a new podcast, the pub and the Porsch Applied stous is in. The links are in the description. Check it out. It's a great pod, easy listening too unlike this show? Uh what else? Nick? Of course, Lobo fog Bow check it out. The links roll in the description. All the other guys links are in the description as well. The best place to support
the show is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. You get both Teamhouse and iys on episodes AD free and early, and you help support the show. Mick as always happy traveling, travel safe. I hope you get there quick.
Thanks State for sure, man, great discussion.
Hey guys, it's Jack.
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