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Welcome back to the salid verbal Boys and girls. My name is ty Hildenbrand. That guy over there, the one, the only still being comparable, Dan Rubinstein, thank you for coming back to our college football podcast.
Dan. Yeah, how you doing. I'm pretty good all things considered. You know, Thanksgiving has coming gone. Stomach is feeling great. Great. My coach at my school, which is not my coach or my school, but I attended there. I'm gonna alumnus. He's still there. I mean by the time this is released. Maybe he took fourteen million dollars from Miami or something. I don't know. But you know, in these wild days and these carousel days, stability is not the worst thing.
The coaching carousel, as I like to say, has been spinning ever so chaotically. We will get into some of the breaking news on that front. We have done three live streams in the span of about ninety six hours. Dan, because big name institutions keep hiring big name coaches or keep making news by the guys they are hiring. So
we're going to get into that here momentarily. We're going to have Bill Connelly on to talk about the weekend in front of us here in week fourteen, Championship week, what he expects to see, what kind of takeaways he has from the season that was, and maybe offer some insight as well into some of this news in the coaching sphere. Oh yeah, before we go any further, though, do subscribe to the Solid Verbal Out on Apple podcasts or on Spotify, Google, anywhere where fine podcasts are sold.
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livestreamer doing it one more time. I got one more big Saturday to discuss. We do it on the YouTube channel every Saturday morning at eleven a m. Eastern time, So go on out subscribe to the channel. You'll be notified when we hit the button to go live, which is usually around ten forty five. And last, but certainly not at least for Bowlers dot Com. Yeah, man, a short while ago we did our brewin a episode which we do only on Patreon every Thursday, exclusively available to
our Patreon for Bowlers. You also get to do an AA show to be clear. Yeah, it's a Q and A show, sure, but I was drinking tea out of my samoid mug as I like to he the Brew and A get access to this show early. You get access to a bunch of perks.
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We've talked about those time and again here on the show.
Dam Yeah, it was a terrific show today. I I had a fun time. It's largely college football, but we got into I don't know, holiday, alcohol, We got into food and mine, apples on pizza, relationships, gifts, yeah, all sorts of stuff. Before we go any further though, and talk about the games this week, we should talk about the news this week. You know what, I ain't gonna yell at again. My voice is ready breaking. Thank you.
Beep beep, beep beep on its last leg. Notre Dame has not officially named its new head football coach, but per reports, per numerous reports, it's gonna be Marcus Freeman. So on the Wednesday preview show, we talked through the news at that point that Brian and Kelly announced. I guess on Monday he was going to be leaving nd going down south into the Bayou, trying to take LSU to a national championship. It let Notre Dame in a position where potentially they're playing in the playoffs in a
couple of weeks and then have a coach. So Jack Swarbrick, he urged some patients, said that there will be a process, that they were going to do a search. It was important to get the right guy. I don't know if it's because Gary Barta, as part of the College Football Playoff Committee, said that they were going to factor in Notre Dame's lack of a coach into their final rankings. I don't know if it was just that they like Marcus Freeman so much. I like to think the latter.
Yeah, I think it was.
Yeah, regardless of the scenario though. Marcus Freeman, per reports, they're working on putting a contract offer together and he's going to be the next head football coach. So this came about very quickly. We did a live stream which you can go out and view on the YouTube channel Solid Verbals. YouTube channel is YouTube dot com slash the Solid verbal the But what'd you think, Dan, how'd you feel about that?
I felt good. I'm always enthusiastic. I try to be enthusiastic about new hires, and at first, and before I think about how it might not work, I think about, Okay, what does this look like in a working scenario in which Notre Dame succeeds under Marcus Freeman. It's not difficult to see. I think if you have an opinion of Marcus Freeman in a detailed prediction of how he will do at Notre Dame, you are either somebody who knows Marcus Freeman really well, or you're just guessing, or you're
just because Look, he was at Cincinnati. He is a defensive coordinator not that long ago. He's been the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame for not even a full season. He has not been the public face of a school yet, so we don't have a really good concept of how he is publicly or what his vision is like as a head coach. We can be optimistic, there are things to point to that should make you feel optimistic about the hire, but also how green he is, the inexperienced,
the size, the magnitude of the job. I don't know the last time we had a situation like this. I don't think it's fully analogous, but I am kind of reminded of Manny Diaz taking the Temple job and then immediately turning around and taking the Miami job, and you're like, well, the market kind of said he was a Temple type coach, and now he's the coach at Miami and a lot
of ups and downs at Miami. Not that the market has deemed Marcus Freeman a G five or an up and down G five level head coach, but it just it wasn't really in the conversation for Notre Dame beyond like Brian Kelly saying like he's going to be the coach here someday, well, and that was the extent of it.
It makes you wonder.
It makes you wonder.
Because there's been some anecdotal evidence along the way. Right, we had that Freudian slip, whatever you want to call it, when Brian Kelly made comments about Marcus Freeman being the next coach here. We had Jack Swarbrick at his press conference talk about the anxiousness or the restlessness. I guess was his phrasing that he saw in his friend Brian Kelly, with whom he had worked for a good long time. Brian Kelly again was at Notre Dame for twelve seasons.
There is part of me in the galaxy brain. I don't know, wondering if Brian Kelly knew all along that he wanted out, that they brought Marcus Freeman on knowing that he would be the next guy, that maybe it wasn't truly just a slip of tongue, that maybe there was more to it. I can't substantiate that I am speculating, but it does make you wonder, after the fact, after what we've been through over the last few days here, whether or not there was a plan in place that
we didn't know about right. Only time will tell.
So you're saying there may have been Nate the Great ted Lasso type crumbs laid along the way. Maybe maybe by the way, I think you're not wrong. But two, I guess to my point, I don't know, like, did you see anywhere you're closer to this than I am. As somebody who pays attention to Notre Dame where they're like, Florida should talk to Marcus Freeman. Alice, you should talk to Marcus Freeman. Us you should talk to Marcus Freeman. Was his name coming up in really big head coaching
jobs like that? I just don't remember seeing it.
His name wasn't coming up in really big head coaching jobs. His name was coming up in really big defensive coordinator jobs.
Sure, absolutely, which he already in habits.
Yeah, there were no shortage of programs that would have loved to have Marcus Freeman on staff. And totally if you listen to any of the interviews that he's given, he talks openly about that. He talks open not about all the places where he's interviewed or gotten some interest, but enough of them, you know, from sea to Shining Sea. So from my standpoint, I think I was pretty open about the fact that I didn't have a strong opinion
on which direction they should go. I was fairly confident that Jack Swarburk was going to make a good move. You know, I didn't buy what he was saying at his press conference that he didn't have a list in the top drawer or anything like that. Maybe he didn't have a list, but he had something in the back of his mind regarding what he was going to do next. Maybe that was Marcus Freeman all along. I don't know, but I do know this is a move that many
people out there are gonna view as hasty. Sure, many people out there are gonna view it as a huge risk because Marcus Freeman does not have the experience. I am here to tell you that I freaking love it.
I love it. I mean I love that you love it.
I love every single solitary bit of this hire. I love it to its core. I love it because it's a risk. It's high risk, it's high reward at a program that you know in Earnest has tried that, maybe thought it was trying that with Charlie Weiss, but is trying it again now at a different stage in the program, when it is on more stable footing. Totally, if you're gonna try it, if you know that recruiting is not going to take a dip because of this move. Now would be the time to try it, to try and
get to that next gear, that next level. I love it. I love that they're keeping Tommy Reese now a show ago he said, we think, Brian Kelly, we think LSU can probably do better than Tommy Reese at this stage in his development as a twenty nine year old offensive coordinator. That is probably true. The thing that I like about Notre Dame retaining him is a he's got a great rapport with the players that are there. He's done a better job each and every week with this offense bringing
it along. They have gotten better throughout the course of the season. And I love the fact that he gets to be CEO of the offense and Marcus Freeman gets to be CEO of the defense. And at least in the short term, that means that the on field product for Notre Dame is gonna look a lot like what we've seen so far. It's not gonna be different. The
bottom's not gonna fall out on this thing. If they do end up playing in a playoff game, they may get boat raced by Georgia, right, but buying large the product on the field is not going to take some hard left turn and make you wonder what the hell am I watching? So I love that continuity aspect of it as well. And I just think he's a damn impressive guy. Sure, I think he's way qualified. I love the fact that Notre Dame is trying to put itself in this position now to get to that next level.
If it fails, and fails spectacularly, at least we have content, right, it could be worse.
It's it's a swing risk, it's And I saw this phrase by somebody, some sportswriter, and I apologize for not knowing his or her name off the top of my head, but it was Sure, it's a big swing. But is it a bigger swing not to when you have this guy within your program as somebody who is beloved by people in the program, who is attracting people to the program, who calls a good defense, who improved his side of the ball dramatically over the course of the season, what's
the bigger risk letting him go or promoting him? And it's a good question. And the Tommy Reese thing is interesting too. Continuity counts, Continuity matters, and I believe Tommy rees called an offense. It's championship week, right, not one, not two, but three non garbage time points against Clemson last year and the championship game.
That's correct.
You can't let that guy go. You just can't let him hit the open market. Do everything you can.
This also now puts us in a very very interesting, unprecedented space where if Notre Dame gets into a playoff game, they may have the backing of otherwise Notre Dame haters.
True, that's a nice new novel concept within the sport. Yeah, because the.
One thing that Notre Dame haters hate more than Notre Dame is the snake of a coach. And I'm not here calling Brian Kelly a snake.
Your mom did on one of our live stream My.
Mom did on one of the live streams. I believe it was a creep, but snake's synonymous for sure, correct, yep. But the snake of a coach who abandons his team, who chases the bag, leaves with a three and a half four minute speech that guy. People always hate that guy more than Notre Dame. So the fact that he left Notre Dame in a lurch, I would not at all be surprised if Notre Dame makes it into this playoff if they don't, weirdly have the backing of people
who would otherwise say I hate the Irish. Now suddenly they're on their side rooting for them to pull it off. Crazy turn of events.
Yeah, I think this week has shown us that people like commenting, at least people I've seen in social media commentary like I don't know whatever amount of worth you want to put on anonymous people weighing in, including me. People don't like snake coaches, and people say things, people like saying things like you couldn't pay me to live in California in response to Lincoln Riley, Okay, good to know, Thanks, thanks for weighing in.
Yeah, well that's it. It's been. It's been quite a turn of events in South Bend, and I'm excited for them to finally take the bubble wrap off this thing and announce Marcus Freeman. I'm excited to hear what he has to say. I'm sure there will be some sort of introductory press conference and he's gonna have to hit the ground running, right because if it's not the playoffs, it's gonna be a New Year's six Bowl game against a good opponent. So we'll find out I think pretty
early on what it looks like. We'll find out a lot more in the offseason and as we build into twenty twenty two. But even then, an early game against Ohio State. Welcome to college football, new head football coach Marcus is alma mater. Yeah, yeah, we will find out in very short order what this guy's got up his sleeve. I am very excited for this next generation of Notre Dame football. You know, even if it fails, at least they could say they tried.
Yeah, I mean, this is this is your year. This is in a shell, in a I forget what idiot I'm looking for, but in a nutshell like right, it's you could go comfortable, or you could take a big swing. And here's ty Hilton Bran out there quitting the day job taking a big swing. Fortune fires the bold, Fortune Fair is the bold? Any other news that we should discuss. I saw Adrian Martinez, Yeah he's in the train. Medazio
was fired. Yeah, Adrian Martinez in the portal. Yeah, I mean, I think we'll just more do a portal specific show in the coming couple of weeks of guys who have entered guys who have made the official switch, like Jake
Hayner has gone from Fresno State presumably, it seems. I don't know if I've seen anything official at the time of recording, but there's an assumption based on transfer rules because he's already transferred once if he can immediately become eligible at a place where he used to play in Washington and I Yeah, there's a lot to be discussed with the portal. Interesting quarterback Spencer Ratler's in the portal.
We talked about that a little bit. Just there's going to be a lot of new faces at new places that I think deserves its own show, or at least large swath of a show.
Absolutely, And Oklahoma is still without a coach. There is I think a lot of speculation that it could be Brent Vennables, but that has not been openly reported anywhere. We'll see if that will come to fruition or not. Brent Vannibles, a guy you know, has a long history with Oklahoma, has done great things at clemsed hit it would make sense that they'd want to bring him back.
But when that news breaks, I think we're going to try to handle it the way we've been handling all these other big openings and we'll just flip on the cameras and go live on YouTube. So that is why it is important if you like what we do, going out to YouTube dot com, slash the the solid verbal and you'll be notified whenever we go live. We get an email.
A lot of interesting names, not even just menibals right, a lot of like hot coordinators, especially defensive coordinators. And you know Dan Lanning and Mike el Coo. Lanning obviously is going to be with Georgia for some time because of the playoff, but you know, Oklahoma should attract kind of best of the best, who's who of interesting head coaching candidates.
An enormous job, absolutely enormous job. So do stay tuned. Make sure you subscribe to the show and subscribe to the YouTube channel. We're doing our best here in this on demand universe of podcasting to cover these things in as close to real time as we can. It doesn't always work out timing wise.
YouTube hit the YouTube channel. We're going live with big news.
We've been going live with big news, and we've also been posting that audio and podcast form out on verballers dot com for a patriot. Sure again, those who are interested, shall we get to our guest of honor. I would love to joining us. Now, we're old buddy from ESPN dot com. We've known Bill Connolly forever. Bill.
How are you?
I'm very good? How are you? I'm very tired. Let's not let's be real here. Yeah, we're yeah, we're ready to to wrap this up a little bit. But I'm excited.
Poor us. We watch college football and talk about it professionally. Please pity our struggles.
And I am very excited though about this weekend. This has a chance to be a very very cool playoff, and I'm hoping for the best here.
Well, let's start there. What is the most likely chaos scenario?
Oh this weekend?
Well, the thing is like the non chaos scenarios pretty feels pretty chaotic. When you think about the possibility of a Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State Cincinnati playoff. That's kinda it feels like the most likely situation right now. Not that any one situation is extremely likely, but that kind of feels like the most likely scenario. That's amazing. That's four rise slash redemption stories to talk about it, and I realize it all ends with Georgia winning two games by
twenty four points or whatever. But that's an amazing story and I'm hoping that's how it plays out. Obviously, obviously we could still end up with Alabama, Georgia and Notre Dame taking three of the four spots, and then you know, one amazing story crammed in there too, I guess. But no, just the thought of like Michigan, Cincinnati, Georgia, Oklahoma State. That's just cool and it's something we needed a little bit more of. So I'm hoping that's the way it plays out.
The thinking fans for some and that thinking fan is one of the few people who could name all four quarterbacks for those four teams.
Yeah, Spencer Sanders playoff quarterback.
Yeah, wow, just incredible. Stetson Bennett Stet's first. First of all, Okay, you're going to get back to your questions. I understand, I just cut you off time. But Stetson, then it's really really good at college football.
Yeah. I just wrote about this for my Friday call him too, But you know it's amazing. Well number one, yes, I mean he's like second in total kbrs and passed like one to eighty nine or whatever, like, he's done so well. But it's amazing that we have gotten twelve games into the season, like thirty eight different ways. In the offseason I asked the same question, which is basically,
can Georgia score when they need to score? Right, And the answer is, we don't know because they've never had to score yet, and it's twelve games into the season and they might not have to score ever. And so yeah, I mean, he's been awesome. He's had the easiest job in America. He's done it really well, and he might end up winning a national title. I wrote about death of the game manager in the offseason, and then a game manager might win the title the very next year.
Well, Dan, I'm glad you brought up Stetsan Bennet because that was going to be my question. What's Georgia got to do to prove the people that it can also play offense? Because look, we know about the defense. The defense is one of the all time greats. The offense in your sp plus is I believe second. Yeah, nationally showed me, which is still pretty damn good. You just don't care about it because, like you said, they don't have to score. They haven't been in a whole lot
of high leverage situations. Do we expect Is it realistic to expect going up against the number eleven defense per your sp plus and Alabama that the results are going to be any different than we've seen all year?
Right? I mean, so much of it depends on can A help him to protect Bryce young enough to make this a game like that? So much of it's going to come to that, because like the most shocking I knew this was going to say something to this effect,
but total second half drives. I pulled this up for the column and I tweeted it out a couple days ago or yesterday, Total second half drives this season with a scoring margin like under plus fourteen, So basically, you're either behind or you're up by less than fourteen points.
The top three teams in the country in this war Western Kentucky actually, which kind of threw me a little bit, But Western Kentucky has had thirty one such drives all year where they're not, you know, up at least fourteen points. Cincinnati is second. They've had twenty eight of those drives.
Those are both pretty wild numbers. They've been in control of games Georgia's had six drives all year where they had the ball in the second half and they weren't up at least two touchdowns, and five of those came against Clemson, So in the last eleven games they've had one. They were up seven against Kentucky at half, they took the ball, they drove like five or six plays seventy
two yards or something like that. That was the one semi high leverage drives thattsn't been in has had all year, and he was great and then you know, the right down and scored on Kentucky. But that was it. And I mean, obviously Alabama's defense is good, obviously Alabama. Obviously Alabama is good, but they've showed just enough glitches on offense of late that are are are they going to be able to score enough or keep Georgia down enough to actually makes Detson minutes score in the second half.
This is an Alabama team, by the way. I mean I mentioned the underlying numbers about how successful they can be that if Georgia beats then they're likely not even in this playoff barring some sort of crazy crazy stars aligning. Who is the team that seems likely to be in the playoff that can force those higher leverage drives and second halves. In your mind, both from what you've seen with your eyes and what your your numbers dictate, well, I mean.
I guess the most likely answer is nobody, but you could see of the ones we're talking about, I mean Michigan. Michigan's basically Georgia liked, right. I mean, they play very, very, very good defense. They want to run the ball as much as you'll let them. They can throw on they can catch back up to the chains, they can catch back up on passing downs. And I think they've done a really nice job this year with Kay McNamara of just sort of slowly opening the playbook as they've gone along.
It was really safe early in the year. They've added responsibility as the year's gone on, and he's responded. So theoretically they just might be good enough to do it. It worries me that they really are basically Georgia with four stars as opposed to five stars, and you know, it's hard to find actual matchup advantages they have. They're just almost as good as Georgia had everything, but not as good as them at anything. But that could be
interesting just because they're a really good team. Cincinnati and Oklahoma State could both force a lot of mistakes too. If they can force turnovers eertly and somehow and get some easy points on the board one way or the other, that could make things pretty interesting for a while at least by how I think the most likely answer is nobody if Alabama can't do it.
Oklahoma State is a fascinating team because we usually find them to be a program with a pretty high floor that they're going to win eight plus games most if not every year. But it is interesting that traditionally speaking, it has been the offense leading the way, in these past couple of years it has been defense leading the way. Is this an Oklahoma State team in your mind that has outperformed and over at cheat or you know, if it were another year, are they going ten and two,
nine and three? But the stars align in a certain way this year? What is I mean now that you have twelve games of data on Oklahoma State, what is your read on the Pokes?
Well, I think basically, first six seven games they were prety well first they started six and oh they were pretty lucky obviously, you know twenty three sixteen against Missouri State twenty eight, twenty three against tulsaverely beat Boise, and Boise wasn't very good early in the year, so clearly, I mean they've they've had a good defense all year, but that offense was just not doing nearly enough, and so they were really lucky to get to about four
and oh. But once they lost, and they really should, I mean, that was a straight toss up at I would say they easily could have won that game, but once they lost, they came home and like they found another gear. Since then, you know, fifty five three against a Kansas team that improved against everybody else, twenty four to three against West Virginia sixty three seventeen TCU, they've been a playoff team I think over the last five games, or at least like top six or eight, right, So
it does feel like now they're legit. They were not legit early in the year, but they survived enough that they were able to, you know, buy time and find another gear and now they're a very very good team.
Bill how do you handicap the matchup then against Baylor? This is obviously a rematch, right we saw it earlier in the year. Oklahoma State won that game by ten. It was a matchup in which Spencer Sanders threw three picks, and I said on our preview show that that version of Spencer Sanders the inconsistent What do we expect from him? Version of Spencer Sanders, that's the version we've seen the most over the last three years. Now. Obviously in Bedlam
he looked incredible. Which version do you expect to see against Baylor? The version we saw a couple of weeks ago, or maybe this was two picks with two picks right right.
Like that was the thing, and like even last week, they're like, oh, he's doing such a good job playing with them them so oh that was a terrible pass. They just baded it right into that interception. He's basically two horrible plays a game he's going to continue to make, and if you can make them pay for that, it's going to be really hard for them to win. Although then again, they just beat Oklahoma while handing them sixteen points,
which was almost more impressive than just beating Oklahoma. They
like they completely fell apart for eight minutes and then won. Anyway, Well, I mean the thing about Baylor is in that first game, the reason Oklahoma State won anyway, was because Baylor had two good offensive plates, Like they had two plays the game ninety nine yards and their other fifty whatever snaps game I think one hundred and eighty two if I remember right, Like, they just completely shut down Baylor, and that was a Baylor team that had a healthy Jerry
Bohannon in charge, and so like, I don't know, I don't know. I mean, I think the way Baylor wins this game is by taking full advantage of the Sanders' mistakes, keeping the game close, and then just making things, you know, things get weird at the end, and they at the bounces. They're clearly a really good team. They're not what are they eight or ninth in the playoff rankings, They're not that good on paper, but they're a top twenty team
on paper with a top fifteen or twenty defense. So they they're just a good team and that, you know, that's how they win is by being a good team that takes advantage of the other team's mistakes. I think it's not that you know, s PPLUS has it as like a one or two point game. I think I think the trends certainly favor Oklahoma State. The s PPLs ratings take those early season games into account. They don't
know that Bohannon's hurt. You know, obviously, you know, things kind of point in Oklahoma State's direction in that regard, but it's still really close to being a toss up fair enough.
And when you look at teams, I mean, Oklahoma State is obviously the team that is the best example of being able to survive mistakes and win comfortably or just win at all. And you mentioned, I think you had a couple of tweets yesterday about Iowa and their ability to win games without quarterback play, without it average quarterback play, the absence of quarterback play. So you can talk about Iowa,
but who else this year? Because this has been like a pet phrase of ours of winning your clunkers, right, winning despite down performances. And you have you know, when you have a metric that looks at coaches who have the ability to win losable games, who are the teams this specific season that have been the best at winning losable games?
Well, I mean Oklahoma States certainly, you know, put that bar set that bar pretty high early in the year at the very least. That's interesting. I'm pulling up here's where I pull up spreadsheets.
On a pun and please do it the most. This is what we look before that.
My my second order win total number is something we talk about sometimes where it's basically, you know that post game win expectancy, how frequently you would you have won this game with these specific stats. You know, you add that up and it pretty much tells you who's pretty fortunate to be where they are? You best coaches in America? Yeah, or luckiest. It takes a lot to separate those two. But like UTSA was extremely lucky to get to eleven and out, they s P plus views them as more
of like an eight win team. They won a couple of games they really probably shouldn't have, and then suddenly, like regressing to the meme, just destroyed them all at once. Wake Force is another team like that. You know, obviously their offense has been really good, their defense just hasn't shown up sometimes, but they've managed to get to ten and two all the same. Fifth on the list is Iowa. Looks like an eight and four team on paper, but they've gone ten and two because of those early runs
of turnovers. Most interesting team, well, I don't know about most interesting, but I've gotten yelled at a bunch this year, which isn't new, but I've gotten yelled at a bunch this year by Utah State fans.
I was going to say that was my team that in previewing the game, like, oh, they beat a bunch of good teams by like two points a game, right, bad teams? Excuse me?
Yeah, their second order. Let's see, so that postgame expectancy number they won. Let's see, they beat Washington State in the first game of the year. Their postgame went expectancy was twenty four percent. On paper, it looked like a six point loss at Air Force. They they beat air Force, which won them the division. Postgame went expectancy twenty two percent. They beat Colorado State the famous blow the field goal attempt at the end and then blame the players for
it moment of the season. Utah State won that game twenty six twenty four with a four percent postgame expectancy. So they've been mostly awesome over the last five weeks. They're still crazy vollattle because they have no offensive consistency.
It's just how many big plays do they generate. They suddenly generated none against Wyoman and got their doors blown off, But otherwise they have risen in SPPLUS over the last five weeks, but they just the SPPLUS basically views them as a six and six team that accidentally went nine to three. That is certainly the biggest range of the year, and I can kind of explain it. It makes it a hard game to figure out this weekend because I mean,
if they make two big plays, they get destroyed. But if they make five or four even, they absolutely have a chance against San Diego State and their non offense. So it's a tricky It makes them hard to predict, but they do seem like they've been extremely fortunate to get to nine and three.
Dan brought up Iowa and the absence of quarterback play. It is hard to see them winning a big game without a I guess competent quarterback situation, let's say. But as we've been discussing it, though I do that's all they do.
That's not the Hawkeye way.
As we've been discussing it is the Hawkey way. Ten and two, Yeah, regardless of how it looks on paper, ten and two is the final tally They're going up against Michigan this weekend. Iowa was calling card early as basically just a half team that plays really good defense, creates turnovers, and gives its offense a short feat has been creating those mistakes. Michigan doesn't really make that many mistakes, right. That's been one of the reasons why they've been having
as good of a year as they have. They're in the top thirty thirty five nationally in terms of turnover margin. If Michigan goes out there and plays its game and does not do anything stupid, is there a path for Iowa to win this game.
It does feel like they need to. I mean, at the very least, they need to be on the plus side of the turnover margin, and if they're not, they just have to create those extra possessions basically, like they can Michigan into just kind of a rock fight. I don't think Michigan mine's taking its time pulling ahead of teams by any means. Like they're the Rutgers game earlier
this year. They're better than they were that obviously, but they're still like they can be kind of sucked into a very plotting, Oh wow, it's already halftime and it's seven to three kind of game, And so that's part of it is just I mean, they they won't need to like create it a bunch of breaks early, they just need they can probably take their time doing it. But yeah, it's hard if they're not in the positive
turnover margin, if they don't get at least one easy touchdown. However, that turnover or random play action bomb or whatever, it does feel like, you know, Iowa basically defines the game for you. You have to play their game. They're going to play their softs, their their their zone defense. They're going to trick you. They're going to run the ball and punch. Even though they don't run the ball well,
they're going to do it a lot. And they just basically hope that their quarterback makes two good plays instead of zero. But they make you play that way. They make you settle for shorter passes, they make you take your time, and it makes guys, it makes teams uncomfortable. Sometimes. I don't think it'll make Michigan uncomfortable, but it could still. I could still certainly see it be in a situation where all they need is one or two bounces and they're right there at the end.
By the way, I feel as if with Iowa, you can just if you if if I were to give you or you anybody was to give anybody a number of like how many combined awesome plays do Tyler Goodson and Charlie Jones account?
Right?
Is it more than four and a half? I was probably gonna win?
Yeah?
Is it fewer? Not likely?
Yeah? It was crazy. Just the you know, the tweets that we were talking about over the last two years, they are if their quarterback rating is higher than one hundred and one hundred is terrible. Like not for the year. The worst quarterback rating for a team is Yukon at ninety two. One hundred is a terrible passer rating. If they are over one hundred, they're fourteen and one over the last two seasons. Like that's where the bar is.
They just have to And it's so frustrating because one hand, you're like, wow, that's it's amazing that they they've crafted an identity that doesn't require a five star quarterback. They're gonna win games. It's just so cool. And then at the same time you're like, what if you just tried for decent quarterback play? Yeah, Like how much would you really have to change to just if you could just figure out to be decent at the quarterback position. How many games would you win?
Is there another Farans that he can hire? Was there like a Sharon Farrens.
That was their funny conversations that was happening, And I mentioned was you know this is if they would just fire Brian Farns, is like, well, then they'd bring in John Donovan or something, it wouldn't change.
Well, and it goes back to the argument that we've made on this show. You know, over the years with Oklahoma, much different team, much different circumstance. But if Oklahoma could just get marginally better on defense like some of the some of the teams over the last five years, think how much better those teams would have fared come playoff time, come Bowl time.
And it's funny too because last year they got there, but they got there after they had already lost twice, right, and so they weren't even they weren't part of the conversation. But that was the highest level that I think he achieved was the second half of last season, where they'd already been eliminated from the race altogether. Which actually, now that we're thinking about it, that's Iowa stored to last year.
They lost their first two games of the year by like four combined points or whatever, and then they had a great offense for most of the rest of the year. They ended up like tenth and sp plus, but again they had already lost twice and it didn't matter. And then this year they do much better overall, within much worse offense. Because this all makes perfect sense.
So Bill, talk to me about something here. Okay, we have done more interviews than I could probably ever count, and all along the way, given your intense passion for college football, your eye on the analytics and all things scientific in the game, you have had a I think deep love for a group of five teams. We're finally at the point now or a group of five team in Cincinnati appears that it controls its own destiny with
regard to the playoffs. We've arrived here, and what I've found very interesting is all the folks along the way who have been proponents of chaos and we want to break the system. Now that Cincinnati is on the doorstep, a lot of the same people are out there like they're not good enough. We should probably give it to Ohio State instead, Like where are you at with Cincinnati? How good are they? Does Houston have a realistic shot
of beating Cincinnati. Do you want to see Cincinnati win? Like, where are you at with this whole argument about the Bearcats.
Well, I mean, all I can say is in the NSP plus, which is tempo and opponent adjusted and conference adjusted. That was one of the big changes I made a couple of years ago, like basically, how you know your how your house price is affected by your neighborhood. It kind of you know, the overall conference you reside in moves you up and down, and the AAC is not very good this year, so just by the company they have to keep until they moved to the Big twelve,
it's kind of dragging them down a little bit. And they're fit overall in SP plus. I don't know, I don't remember where the highest ranked Boise State and TCU teams were a decade ago before they moved or before TCU moved, But since that I was fifth, they're they're barely behind Michigan. And this is with that conference effect
in place. They physically destroyed Notre Dame in October. They now Coaches kind of hate when when a mid major makes a run like this, because you know, Cincinnati like openly took a month off, basically after the note, after the UCF game, and they go up to touchdowns and just coast as long as humanly possible. Didn't show anything that isn't something that like an Alabama gets to do. Well, that's not a good example, but you know a more mortal team gets to do in a power conference. So
you want to complain about that, that's fine. But everything we've actually seen from Cincinnati is when they're in a situation where they have to hit the gas, they hit the freaking gas. And they matched up physically with Georgia last year and they're really, really, really good. I just I have no problem whether the road was hard enough, Like we can talk about that if we want to, But what we've actually seen on the field is that
they're a really good football team. That's aid Houston COMPETI them because Houston is suddenly a top thirty team too, and Houston top thirty teams beat top five teams all the time. But that well occasionally, and they have a defense that forces tons of mistakes and it's super aggressive, and they feel like a very good underdog candidate and.
They but they bring a ton of pressure. Dan and I both had trouble on our Wednesday preview show, trusting the offense.
Yeah, yeah, it's a pretty inconsistent offense. They can make some big plays, but they go three and out a lot in Cincinnati forces a ton of three and outs, and you figure that alone tilts the field enough to where, unless unless Desmond Redder throws three picks or you know, the sack and strips get involved or whatever, it's going to be really hard for Houston to win. They absolutely have a chance because they are a good team too.
Yeah. The thing that's sort of hard to parse or hard to explain or hard to put into context because you just never have time when you're trying to defend teams or put down other teams' performance or whatever. Cincinnati was a Power Conference team. They are not considered a Power Conference team anymore, a Power Conference program because of the way the sport realigned a decade ago or twelve years ago, whatever. But they were in the Big East.
They went undefeated, They've played in major bowl games. They attract like top thirty ish forty ish type classes that are comparable to like pit Virginia Tech. Right, Like, they're not a cute story right from top to bottom, they're just not from top to bottom. They're a power program. They just happened to play in a conference that's not considered to be for I mean, justifiably so in some instances,
a power conference. And so that's hard to sort of say quickly when talking about the program, right, Yeah, No, that hit me earlier this year, and it made me really mad, like we're openly punishing them for their for their week schedule when a they.
Didn't choose to have any schedule, Like that's what That's one of the parts that always like they scheduled how they were supposed to a non conference. They can't control how good the AAC is. But then with cincinnat it was doubly infuriating because they didn't even do anything to merit being in a group of five conferences to begin with, they were two years before realignment. They almost made the
national title game. Like if Colt McCoy's passed flick flutters in the air for another half second, where was that stand in tent wherever that game was? Then Cincinnati plays for the national time. They get whooped in the national title game, but they still play for the national title. And then two years later or three years later or whatever. They're a mid major team and that's just and then we punish them for it when they're actually really good.
So the whole thing is obviously really, really frustrating. And hopefully they can, hopefully they can actually make the playoff. And hopefully they can, you know, they've already acquitted themselves well enough to be a playoff team, but hopefully with the world watching and ready to judge them and say, well, I knew they weren't there all along, then hopefully they played really well.
And to bring it full circle, to be clear, Brian Kelly abandoned that team. Major Bowl game parallels.
Here, we got we got the ten year anniversary of Oklahoma State barely missing it. We've got Cincinnati, We've got Brian Kelly coming in in a weird way.
It's a it's a circle of life, Yeah, circle of life. Notre Dame is what I was gonna ask about, just because they are this and I don't know what it is. I mean, I guess I have some concept of what it is, but they are this team that's not spoken of, and maybe it's the loss of Cincinnati, and maybe it's the assumption that, like, well, they're not going to jump Cincinnati basically no matter what happens, unless I guess Cincinnati
gets truly blown out by Houston. But Notre Dame is a team that I mean, in my eyes, that I've watched that the back half of their season, and Ty has been adamant about this. They've just been a different team since that. I mean, all things considered pretty tough early road, right, having the defenses that they had early on. Is Notre Dame in the same way that Oklahoma State
has turned it on the back half? Is it? In your view and your estimation, is Notre Dame a team who got better or did their schedule get better these last six games?
Yes? This is one of the ways that like a postgame went expectancy kind of thing can help too, because yeah, I mean their last four games weregans teams NSP plus ranked one oh five, fifty ninety four and one o four like not good. Only Virginia is is decent in that bunch, but they're but they completely and totally dominated in the way that a top five team would in those games. And that's of course, after you know, beating
North Carolina. Obviously North Carolina is sort of a mess to but they still beat the North Carolina in USC and they the stats suggested that they should have beaten Virginia Tech by far more than three. They very much controlled that game. It's been it's been funny. So you know, you know on Twitter at some point, you know, anytime you say something that turns out wrong, somebody's gonna dunk on you for it. And that's fine. I'm wrong a lot.
But the thing I've gotten, you know, dunked on the most this year is in I think the Notre Dame preview over the Summer, the Indies preview over the sum I said, like, the middle stretch of their season from Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC North Carolina is an incredible run that even a good team would lose a game or two on and it's going to be really tough for them.
I've gotten dunked on NonStop for that, and I don't understand, like I stopped responding because that's like, but hey, they did lose a game that lost to Cincinnati in that stretch. I was definitely wrong about Virginia Tech USC being I thought they'd be much better than they were, and that's fine. They also almost lost to Florida State in Toledo to start the year, which I also didn't predict. So it's been it's been strange, but I mean, you know, dunk away.
But either way, no, I at this point in the year, obviously we don't know what the Brian Kelly leaving thing is going to do exactly, but they have I think, like Oklahoma State, they've played like a top five or so team over the last four or five six games, and I think they would acquit themselves pretty well. They made the playoff.
Who is underachieved not the teams that obviously that were expected for whatever reason to be really good. But I know the Nebraska is the obvious to hear because of the defense they field it. But I would argue, and I have argued, this Nebraska certain performs like a three and nine team at the end of game exactly, and so their record is actually who they are right like
they are an actual bad team. They do things, they do certain things that good teams do, but the difference is they are happy to have the appearance of a non bowl team for large swaths of their game.
Three quarters, they're a top twenty team and right in the fourth quarter they're a bottom twenty team.
Which which is exactly what bad teams do. So they are a bad team. I don't want to hear about Nebraska being like the best three and nine team. They're just another three and nine team.
They are, however, the best three and nine team.
Who in your mind, and this could actually be good teams who should have been great, but who in your mine didn't get their act together in ways that they should in ways that they performed. We were like, yeah, I know, they went nine and three, like Penn State
to me is an example of that. Like the distance from Penn State going seven and five to ten and two is so absurdly slim that it makes me think, oh, no, they are a seven and five team because they did what seven and five teams should do to not go ten and two.
Yeah, I mean, obviously with Clifford that Penn State's hard to talk about exactly because it sure seemed like they were about to win the Iowa game, to take complete control of the Iowa game when he got hurt. They don't. If he can actually you know, move his legs, he probably they probably don't lose to Illinois. That was pretty
easy to just you know, quarterback injuries. Therefore, their record wasn't as good as it was supposed to be obviously, you know, I guess Clifford wasn't one hundred percent against Michigan and Michigan State. But either way, they still figured out ways to drop points in those games that they didn't have to, even you know, with Clifford being limited. So they still, even with Clifford being limited, they should have probably been at eight and four, nine and three
team and they blew it. But but they're certainly on the list. Mississippi State's an interesting one of me. They when they looked good, they looked awesome, but their defense kind of dropped the ball down the stretch, you know, thirty plus their last three conference games. It was a really really good defense there for a while, and it
kind of started to stumble a little bit. I thought, right when I started thinking that, you know, this team could be, like, could go to a different level down the stretch, they did the opposite, right, So that felt like a team that had an opportunity for more than just seven and five and didn't get it. Let's see, not.
That weird ability by the way, to go down like twenty four to ten every week and they're like, well, they're either going to storm back and win this game by eleven or they're going to lose this game by thirty.
Right, We're very used to to no lead being safe in a Mike Leach game matter what, but certainly had that feel as well. One tim I wish had a different non conference schedule because we'd had an opportunity to talk about them a lot more. Is Western Kentucky like they even when they were losing in non conference you can tell, like man, once they start playing like for like here, it's gonna be. But they barely lose to Army,
They barely lose to Indiana. They I mean, they lost by seventeen to the Michigan State, but Michigan State could not keep them down. They continued to score and score and move the ball. But then as soon as they start one and three, they'd lose that narrow game to UTSA. And they have just laid waste to everybody else in Conference USA since then. And it would surprise me if they didn't destroy UTSA or at least win comfortably. On Is that Friday or Saturday? That's Saturday?
I think Friday night, Yeah, Friday, It is Friday night. Friday night, so yeah, that one.
I'm really if they just had a pretty kky non conference, they'd be like ten and two or eleven and one, and Bailey Zappi would have like an six hundred yards and he'd be at like you'd have a legit chance at six thousand for the season if they hadn't. Because that's such a fun story, well fun for everybody who is a Houston Baptist. I guess we are kind of Hey, did they just destroyed this football player and Houston Baptist by by the good offensive coordinator and all the good
players leaving that kind of songs? Yes, but it was great for Western Kentucky.
It's great. I mean, he was on this show. He was great. He like what they were able to do. And I'll be surprised if that doesn't happen more. I don't have FCS rankings in front of me or I know, like Southeastern Louisiana had a great year, like we can talk it. I'll truth be told. This is I'm gonna
put my cards on the table here. Oregon is gonna be hiring a new offensive coordinator right and I couldn't find somebody in the Western footprint that I loved and like, I don't want Mario Chris Ball to hire like Dan Mullin or Tom Herman because their names and they'll recruit Like I don't want that. And so it's like, Okay, who is the next like woonderkinned Chip Kelly, Mike Yer Sich, who's that guy? I don't you know, Like I know Eastern Washington fired their offense or he resigned at some
point during the season. I know Southeastern Louisiana is good. I think Dan Hawkins might have a guy at UC Davis. Like, are there like coordinators on the G five level FCS level where you're just like, hey, hey, Bill Sie's telling you in late twenty twenty one, keep an eye open. So here in the same way that Houston Baptist had that dude who now affecting wins.
Here here are some names to write down for you to google afterwards. Done so, Yes, the in the offensive sp plus rankings for FCS right now, Southeastern Louisiana is number one, yeah, and number one ten in defense, which is also fun. Eastern Washington is number two and eighty seventh in defense.
Is that is that Cole Kelly at Kelly guy six? He's a power forward playing quarterback.
Yeah yeah, and he gets James Madison this weekend, which could actually be kind of cool. Yeah. That's Eastern Washington, Montana and Southeastern Louisiana and James Madison too. Just bangers at the FCS.
Love.
It's gonna be a lot of fun. Incarnate word is another one there. Third, Okay, Sanford is fourth. We saw what Sandford's capable of true true a couple of weeks ago on so on Saturday, Missouri State, I don't remember. I think they have a young up and.
Cover at quarter just a nobody.
Yeah, I can't remember what his name is, Robert something something, Yeah, Robert something. So yes in Missouri State was fifth, South Dacost State six. That guy is not going anywhere, but Western Illinois is another one. So I just write these now down. We can we can talk D two and D three afterward if you want.
Man, I just don't Victorio's going deep. I think Mario's just gonna hire. He's gonna pay Jeff Grimes or something and they'll be yeah yeah.
Yeah, which yeah, because I mean he really doesn't like fun all that much.
No, he's going to run what he wants to run, and then the offensive coordinator gets some third down wrinkles.
They're still going to be very good and a little bit frustrating because you think they could be a little better and a little more fun. But they're kind of when you got top five classes, you can do that.
That's true. I don't know if I had. I'm trying to remember, like what I was curious about heading into this interview. I'm just looking across the sport. I just
I'm trying to figure out. I always like putting things into a bucket and into a box and the closest I can get to this season, and maybe you have thoughts on this is it's kind of in the year of the backup quarterback or lack thereof, Right, it's kind of been like a lot of these powers either turned to a backup quarterback and he helped them keep winning even if he wasn't great, like Baylor with Blake Shapin or something like that, or the backup quarterback wasn't at
all ready, or there just wasn't anybody behind there. Obviously, Stetson Bennett highlights this phenomenon. Ye, is there anything that you see as cohesive now that we have the regular season done? With about the twenty twenty one season.
It is hard with the number of important quarterback issues teams had. And it's funny too because you think back to August what we might have been talking about then about how like everybody returns everybody and so many teams have experienced quarterbacks but Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State don't.
We don't know about Georgia yet. Like technically that kind of summary was bang on for what a lot of what we've seen, but I think the way it unfolded was in no way what we expected to see just when these issues popped up or who they popped up for. But that has been interesting, I do think because quarterback plays has dropped off. I mean I saw the total QBR this morning, Like nobody's above ninety this year, and
at least a few were last year, like CJ. Stroud still number one and stetson't ben it's number two right now. Because quarterback back play does seem to have dropped off, It's hard to tell for sure how much to make of the kind of defensive renaissance of certain teams, but we've definitely seen two different strains of defense have more
effective as even against like Patrick Mahomes. You know, teams doing a very credible bind, don't break kind of approach and tack clean well and keeping things in front of them a lot of obviously that's the big ten way, but teams are particularly good at that this year. And then you've had the Oklahoma States and Houston's of the world figuring out how to generate crazy pressure with outblitz
in all that much. And you know, Oklahoma State I was liking in them to the legion of boom teams where they basically dare the refs to call a penalty on every single play knowing they won't, which you know, is a little on the cynical side, I guess, but it is also very effective effective and it's super fun to watch him. They're so physical and just so mean
and it's and it's really fun. So that is the other story, and it's hard to know which one to wait, but I do feel like defenses took a nice step forward, and it makes sense that Oklahoma State kind of, you know, Gundy always wants to be on the like the cutting edge of offense, but there is no cutting edge of offense this year, and so it kind of accidentally circled around and now he's on the defensive side of the
cutting edge. But that has been the other story. It's just yeah, I mean, if quarterback play improves next year, maybe we find out that the defenses really didn't do all that much different. They just had a better time.
Now the cutting edge of offense is have Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jackson Smith and Jigla and Trevon Henderson on your roster. That's right, I meating edge.
That is always interesting me to me in recent years to look at, you know, look at the top of the offensive and defensive rankings, and like the top three in offense this year, as you mentioned, Georgia's second, Ohio State's first, in Alabama's third, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma's excuse me, it's fifth. Only Virginia and Wake Forest among the top ones are kind of unique in terms of it's not
just pure talent that they're up there. But you've got Wisconsin, Iowa, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Houston, Cincinnati, Minnesota had an awesome defense this year. In c State had a much better defense this year. It feels like the tactical, the interesting tactics are kind of on the defensive side right now, and it's just we'll see if better quarterbacks next year. You know that's all that.
Bill, Let's get you out of here on this. Obviously, the news of the week has been coach movement, coach Hiringslincoln Riley and Brian Kelly and most recently Marcus Freeman and Sunny Dykes and Brenton Brown. I think you could go on until you're blue in the face.
Jerry Kill, Jerry Kill, Thank you Mexico State.
When we hear that a guy gets hired, people tend to react very subjectively as fans, and I'm assuming you do as well. You're a fan at heart. However, Bill, you built this amazing thing, this marvel of college football science, the sp plus, and so you have a lens that you view college football through that most of us really aren't privy to. How do you program that thing to react to new coaches? How does that thing reprogram you as a fan when it comes to reacting to new coaches?
How are you doing this week? Is I guess what I'm asking?
Well, I think overall, like leaving us P plus out of it for a second. I think generally I hate being wrong about the same thing twice, whatever this situation is. And so you know, I try to learn when I was wrong about this one thing. I try to learn from it and understand like, Okay, well maybe the world doesn't work that way, and you know, venture through life
like that. Well, when it comes to coaching changes, it takes like two years for you to realize you're wrong about everything at least once, because nothing makes sense with what who does well in which jobs. Sometimes when you think about just all through the years, like Scott Frost was an absolute slam dunk, like like the perfect hire for Nebraska in every possible way, we're still waiting for
him to make a bowl. And meanwhile, not that you know, I think you know herm Edwards and Mack Brown both had some we'll say, regression to the mean seasons this year, but they've still done at least a little better overall than I think any of us who just were appalled by those hires. And I was absolutely appalled by those hires and the process that led to them, but done better than I expected. So basically at this point, I have no like when it comes to quality, I have
no opinions on any high or whatsoever. It just comes down to like process and logic behind the moves and all that. And if I understand the logic, then fine, like I just I go with it all. And I definitely understand the logic of both USC wanting Lincoln Riley and Lincoln Riley looking at USC going actually, this would make a lot of sense if I took this job and taking that job. I can understand the logic of LSU wanting Brian Kelly too, although that one seems a
little more. It would be great to have a reality show for your just cameras following around everything that happens over the next year with Brian Kelly and LSU.
But so you basically you need a WSD plus metric. You need an evaluating coach hires. You need who's a weird shady dude. That's my double USD. It's like if you do a homework behind the scenes, like you know, out of one hundred, this guy's kind of a ninety seven.
TP ready terrible process reading, which would have certainly brought up or raised some red flags regarding Colorado State Hire and Steve A. Dazio a couple of years. As we've learned since no but but no, like it's it's hard. I end up every single year, I've become like even
more non committled than before when it comes to you. Yeah, maybe maybe it'll work yep, but as far as yeah there, but there are numbers here, Like I've always wanted to go down this road, and I know there are some people out there who do kind of rate coach effects and whatnot, and I think there's absolutely value that I've never figured out a way to do it that makes s P plus better, but I'm open to finding that way at some point because the obviously some coaches are better than others.
I know you've written extensively about two things. One when you hire a new coach, it's basically a coin flip. Yeah. And two when a program fires an offensive guy, they to overcompensate and go defense or vice versa.
Or they fire an angry guy for a nice guy.
Yeah, right right. They always kind of go the opposite to overcompensate for what they think was wrong. I feel like there's a lot of value though in that first statement with it being a coin flip, because even in great circumstances, you know, the Jimmy Lake thing may be a great example recently, everybody was gung ho on Jimmy Lake when he took over that gig at Washington. You can't factor in all the off field stuff. Nobody can
predict that. But obviously that did not work. That was sort of disastrous in the end, And it only furthers the point that even if it looks great on the surface, you just don't know what's going to happen once they roll up their sleeves and get in there.
Yeah. I think the two things that I have kind of that have helped at least helped me form logic in my own head about this stuff. The two things. There are two conclusions that I've reached over the last couple of years. Number one is like, instead of just judging the hire based on oh, yeah, that's great, who do they hire as coordinators? Yes, and not only especially who do they hire as opposite ball coordinators? Because when Jimmy Lake was hired, the first thought was, oh, this
makes perfect. Peterson signed off, He's he's a great recruiter, this is going to work out. Oh wait, he hired John Donovan.
That I would like Immediately You're like, yeah, no.
Like the best I always try to spend things positively. The best thing I could think of was like, well, he's been in the pros a couple of years, Like maybe he's he's maybe he presented a new vision of what No. No, Jimmy Lake got hired and decided, you know what I want the twenty fifteen pence state offense, and he got the pen to twenty fifteen pence state offense.
And when they got fired after two seasons, so that is one thing, like we obviously you don't know everything you need to know, but basically you can at least figure out like where where's their head at when they're hiring these guys. That'll tell you a whole lot. I think about how things might go.
Especially and how quickly they move on, right, which, like, so Jimmy Lake had that opportun unity after last year and now it's COVID year. Maybe he thought it was that's weird, we have potential whatever. David Randa was like, Nope, this isn't it. This is not it right, Larry Fedora, is not it right when.
You're a first time head coach, right, you haven't made these hires before, and maybe to find pretty quickly that your logic was flawed. But yeah, LIKEX, it FX it quickly and we'll see where we're at. And even like Larry Fedora made sense sort of at least on paper, it wasn't quite the Donovan level what are you seeing here kind of thing? Right, it still was it it ended up working out terribly.
Any move that is all I hate anytime I see like well, like if somebody were to hire Dan Mullen as an offensive coordinator, I don't think it'll work right. Dan Mullen wants to be a head coach. Dan Mullen hasn't called plays in that specific role in a long time. And same thing when you hire somebody like Les Miles, so you hire somebody like Kevin Sumlin, you're like, look, they would rather be at their old job succeeding, and they're not, and so this is a consolation job for them.
How much energy are they putting into their job? Larry Fedora would rather be at North Carolina succeed He's not.
Yeah, I wasn't worried about that. Was basically like he just tried to be the Baylor head coach. Ye, He's like, this is what I'm used to. I'm going to take control of it now.
It didn't work so mine Southeastern Louisiana's coordinator. That's insane.
So here's my question. By the way, Yeah, and I realized I said there are two things, and I've only listened one, so I'll do the other really quickly. Heear in a second. But here's my question. What does Gary Patterson do? Where does he? Is he going to be like a Power Conference defensive coordinator somewhere and how amazing would that like? I have no idea whether that's a great thing or a terrible thing, but what would he be like as a P five defensive coordinator?
I don't know.
He might still be awesome.
He might be TCU had an all time awful defense this year. Yeah for TCU.
Yeah, And I'm I'm willing to believe that that was because of talent and depth because last year they were awesome and suddenly when everybody has a great defense, suddenly they don't. It was just overnight. Like I'm I'm willing to believe that it was a talent and depth thing and not a he's lost his basketball thing. I could be very wrong about that. We'll find out real quick whenever he goes somewhere else, but I'm very.
Sure he should do television. He should be a new coworker of Bill Time.
He would be fun.
That would be would be he has a personality, he's smart, he's engaging. I think that's the move.
So the other thing, real quick, just so I can you know, bug me, if the circle remains, let's do it open. The other thing I've learned over the last few years is judge the school, not judge the school making the higher, and not the higher itself. That explained Scott Frost or Nebraska to a certain degree. They've they've struggled to make a couple good hires. They're just they're in a really weird place. And therefore Scott Frost probably inherited a bad situation, just as Oklahoma has made two
bad hires in seventy years. They just lost Lincoln Riley. They're probably fine. Yeah, And you know it makes when I frame things like this, it makes the Lincoln Riley move really interesting in that he's leaving his school where everybody succeeds. Yep, He's going to a school that's made one successful higher in forty years.
Correct. I mentioned that on a Q and A show that like. Here is the full list of coaches who have worked out in the modern era at USC and other worldly charismatic super Bowl Championship coach the it yeah, and I.
Mean he's still like it's easy to see how Riley could absolutely kick fuck here, but it is. It was easy to see how Scott Frost was going to turn things around in Nebraska too. It just really the number, like Ohio State hasn't made a bad hire since before World War Two, Like Woody Hayes, Earl Bruce was still awesome even if he wasn't wood But we.
Can have a John Cooper conversation.
Right, but once he reached there, he got really high and should have probably won a national title in ninety right, but even he was, he was still a good hire.
Nothing right, right, he wasn't home but yeah, totally.
Russell urban mind. Like nobody has failed at Ohio State really by any like reasonable measure since before World War Two. They're probably fine if Ryan Day leaves for the Pros, but then, yeah, USC is weird. Texas is extremely.
So hold on, does this mean that it's some future state We're going to have a column on the sp plus spreadsheet for athletic directors or just like e squoozers or recruiting intangibles.
I do think like if I was ever to come up with a good way to adjust for like when you when you change coaches, Like one of the ways is just going to be like when a coach leaves, where you above your historical average, where you below your historical average, because you're probably going to start regressing towards
that average with the next guy. I mean, maybe you make an even better higher, but maybe you don't, so chances are revert to form and that'll be kind of interesting to see if I can ever figure that one out.
Yeah, fair enough on that note, Tye Bill, thank you as always. Yeah, this has been illuminating. I don't have any tennis questions because the season is over, and I'm sure ty has some sort of question on like a nine year old Salvadoran kid who has dual citizenship and is the twenty thirty six World Cup going to reflect the America's dedication to the cause, and so this is the floor? Is yours?
Tie? No, I was just gonna ask you, what's Christian Polisic's best position? Get any thoughts on that?
Man? Yeah, no, I I feel like he's better in the middle, like he's obviously a good winger, but I feel like he's like one of his best assets is his vision, and like he's got the speed technically when he's got too healthy legs at least to do well on the outside. I like his vision more than anything else. And it seems to me that that vision, you're in those half spaces, if you're in the middle, you're in
zone fourteen. I think they call it like that. That seems to maybe be the best place for him in my view. You disagree.
I did not expect that answer, but I don't have a reason to really disagree, because you know a lot more about he showed his work.
He did show now, Yeah, not like center forward, more like just the attacking midfield behind the center forward in the middle.
All right, Well, his name is Bill Connolly. Find his work out at ESPN dot com. Bill, it's always pleasure to have you here talking all things college football. Enjoy the final weekend of the season. Hopefully we can get a little bit of sleep, a little bit more rest. Yes, as we move forward, I know we're excited about that, but we absolutely will talk soon.
Thank you again.
Absolutely all right, Dan, there you go, Bill C stopping on by giving us his take on the Weekend. Bill c always always a fan of chaos, always looking for chaos wherever he can find. It. Has been trying to will two thousand and seven back into existence since the start of the year. I don't know if we quite got to those same levels that was pretty extreme in two thousand and seven, but it has been the most chaotic year college football that we've seen in quite some time. Just a lot of.
Follow it's been. It's been a terrific year, which is why I've been a big proponent of just give the national championship to Georgia and let's figure out four other teams to have just a wide open, nonsense playoff. Let's get Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma State in and like, let's see what happens and just really reward Georgia, who is unquestionably the best team in the country. Why prove it? This is so we have leagues that do this. EPL does this.
Right in that circumstance, who does Georgia play if everybody else is playing bowl games? Does Georgia play the Jets? Who would they square.
Off those four teams? Georgia's the national champion and we just give them a trophy and they have a parade in Athens, and that's that they've earned it. You win the SEC against Alabama, which is their final challenge, and they've left no doubt. They beat everybody by seventeen twenty four to thirty eight points that they haven't had close calls.
So I'm good with just awarding them. You could also say, okay, they all wait the winner of the four team playoff that I just mentioned, right, They sit on their high and mighty throne in Indianapolis has all great thrown are and they await whoever comes out of Michigan. I mean they would in this instance already play Alabama. So whoever that team is Michigan, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State. Kind of thing.
I do like the idea of defeating the final boss of college football, Nick Saban, and then just getting something like you have now won the thing, whatever that thing is. Let's play the music. Let's do that.
They get the Mario whistle, they can travel through time.
Yeah, all right, well right in solid verbal at gmail dot com, let us know your thoughts on yes what transpires this weekend. Also, don't forget to give us a phone call. At four zero eight Verbal one your last weekend for a while. Maybe we'll open it up during the National Championship. Four oh eight Verbal one is the reverbline. Our guy Dylan cuts those together, mixes them down into a three and a half four minute segment that we play every Sunday morning as part of our recap show.
We've got eleven games on tap this weekend starting tonight, as many of you listen to this on a Friday, to games nine more on Saturday.
We forgot one thing, it's Is it not the Doctor Pepper tuition throw weekend?
Oh wow?
So I don't know if it's all the championship games. I know it's a lot of them.
Well they used to only do the big twelve game, I think. And then I don't know if they found they've expanded, they found more marketing budget or what I what I enjoy about the whole fun I'd say, throw underhand, get that money however you can. And I know some people are like, it goes against the spirit of throwing a football.
To throw a football, I don't care. I'm here to win. The thing that always doesn't rub me the wrong way, But it's always just a little cheeky is like, how do you get a scholarship to go to college? You get good grades, maybe you have a really tough life and you have good grades and you know you don't have the money or whatever. I think that's all terrific. Those are all terrific candidates to receive scholarship money to college.
I like that. Doctor Pepper says, Look, we understand you've gotten terrific grays, You've got this story, and it's been really difficult for you to pay for college. We are going to put up one last obstacle for you this money. We are going to put you through a series of challenges on National TV. Doctor Tremper, of course, has all of the money in the world where they could just give these candidates. They could just like two finalists, they
have this exhibition and they do whatever. But they're like, you're gonna have to defeat Andrea from El Paso in order to get this money. And we understand you want to go into robotics. Hopefully you can throw these footballs into a ginta flatable soda cant to realize your dreams. WHOA is it a fun odd message. It's a great, great cause that with the obstacle. You're like, look, you've done everything in your ability to get this money. There
is why more challenge. In front of the world in HD, in front of ninety three thousand people at Jerry World, We're gonna have to ask you to throw footballs into a fourteen foot soda can in many ways for our entertainment. In many ways, it's noble, but at the same time, it's man, can we just kill him the cash? Can we just he wants to Andrew wants to study robotics? Yeah, oh god. I always think about that. I always think about that. Doctor Pepper's like, we have the money, you're
gonna have to earn it. I always have that line of thinking. I'm just like, could they just spend one fifty instead of seventy five?
Just give them the money.
I'll just give them. They just write it off, man, and they don't need us. It's a rounding error to Dr Pepper. This month the big lunch and the CEO is there. I'mware with like the giant novelty check or some representative of doctor Pap Borrow was like, all right, you've passed the challenge. You're now now you can now study mathematics.
Yeah.
Always, that's always my thought. I'm like, oh my god, that the hoops that these these two worthy people have gone through to get to this point. And yet still yeah, that's all.
Oh. Every year, a lifetime of academic achievement crystallized down into one ninety second.
It says here, it says here, you have a four point two and you took eight AP classes. You just I get it that you don't. College is expensive. It's more expensive than ever. So no, no, you're not gonna take a time.
How do you feel about throwing a football through a hoop?
Yeah? The soda can the soda can challenge. That's where we are.
That's all all right, Dan, this has been fun. Thank you to one and all for bearing with us this week. A busy week at college football. We'll see if it settles down at all next week, but in the interim, we've got a big forty eight hour stretch coming at you here in week fourteen. Don't forget to go on out to verbawlers dot com so you get access to our recap show a little bit early. We do that live every Sunday morning at ten am. Our Patreon for ballers are able to watch that live as we do it.
They also get access to that show early before it hits the public feed six am Monday morning. Again, that's Verballers dot com, Solid Saturday dot com. We've got a new picture of a Jack Chris Fowler that we're going to share on us believable, unbelievable, maybe six Jackfowlers. So stop on buy we'll break that down in alarming detail, I promise you. And also Solid Giveaway dot Com is how you can go on out enter for your chance
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We'll be back at you on Monday.
In the meantime, stay solid, peace,