Welcome to the solid verbal hell that for me.
I'm a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy. You want to be happy for a day at the steak?
Is that woo woof?
And Dan and Tie.
Welcome back to the solid rebel boys and girls. My name is Ty hilde Brandt. That fine gentleman over there, the one, the only, still, the incomparable Dan Rubinstein, sir, how is your cold bath this morning?
Is that a thing that you do is good? I heard I've been hearing for a long time so much, and I have friends who are believers in the I guess it's like a Scandinavian thing right where you uh sure, the cold plunge. I have no idea if I'm going to do this with any regularity, but I have a good amount of energy this morning, and I am very excited to eventually get into the the show topic at hand, which is running through the the Bowl situations from across
the country. So I think my energy level is good. We do have a lot of news stuff to get to, some pretty pretty awful and sad, and some you know, pretty happy. So that's you know, such as life. But Ty always a joy to be here with you.
Yeah, we will do our best here to balance it all out. We do have some heavy stuff to get into. We will do that momentarily. This episode, all of our episodes driven by our good friends over at Geico. In addition to that, the only other bit of housekeeping here at the very top. You may have seen our emails, you may have seen our social media postings. You may have heard us talking about it at great length here
on the podcast solid reblelive dot com. We are going to be in La in about a month's time now, a little under a month from now, at the Troubadour seven point thirty Pacific time, of course, at the historic Troubadour, which we're very excited they're letting us in the door. Frankly, it's going to be a great show. As we've said time and again, we don't know when we'll be out on the West Coast again. I mean, you'll be back
visiting family, I'm sure. But in terms of us doing a show on the West Coast, it's something we've wanted to do for a good long time now. We had plans to do it before the pandemic. Obviously that did not work. Out. We have now got our ducks in a row. We are headed out west the Saturday before the National Championship on January of the seventh, So come on out if you can get to LA. If you're already in the LA area, maybe you're coming in for
the game. Just saying if you can get on out there, it's going to be a show for the Ages and we would be super excited and thrilled and honored if you would join us. Absolutely can't wait to see out there, all right, Dan. With that being said, yes, I'm not going to play the breaking news sound. It would not be appropriate because we got some sad news today in the world of college football. Mike Leach. Beloved coach Mike Leach passed away on Monday evening at the age of
sixty one after complications related to a heart condition. This news started to circulate, I guess on Sunday when we started to hear that coach Leach had suffered from what the university called initially as a quote personal health issue at his home in Starkville. He had to be airlifted to the University of Mississippi Medical Center up in Jackson, which is like one hundred and twenty or so odd miles away. News had sort of been hard to come
by from that point forward. I think folks wanted to respect the privacy of the family and coach Leach, but we started to get indications that it was a pretty dire situation. And then just this morning, as we record this on Tuesday, heard the news of coach Leach passing away. So, you know, a tragic thing, man, It's it's sad. We had the opportunity to interview coach Leach on two separate occasions back in twenty eleven twenty twelve. Maybe I'll if
I can dig those interviews up, I'll post them. But just one of those things where you see it, you sit back and you're just kind of in shock for a minute.
You know.
Thoughts condolences go out to the Leech family, to the Mississippi State community, to his friends. I even think of guys like Bruce Fellman, with whom Coach Leech spent a ton of time writing that book Swing Your Sword. You know, just a lot goes through your mind. This has been truly a titan in some sense in the college football world and really the broader world of sports.
Yeah and yeah, everything you said, and I don't really have a terrible amount of things to add or things to say that others haven't already said better than I can. Only knew him a little bit, was on the show a couple of times, we spoke to him a little bit outside of that. But his legacy on the field obviously is an incredible amount of creativity and fun football teams, fun offenses, and the legacy off the field is a tremendous this amount of curiosity and eccentricity and quirkiness and
you know, holding a variety of interests. And I'm sure the overwhelming number of people who sort of consumed the Mike Leech experience publicly will know him for that. I'm sure a number of former players of his are absolutely crushed today. And like anybody you know, sort of complicated, flawed dude, I raised my hand absolutely as well as a complicated, flawed dude. So I'm sure a lot of people have a number of emotions, largely I'm sure sorrow
about the loss of Mike Leech. But man, it all is especially given the timing, especially sitting head coach, which is rare in this sport right usually, you know, we mourn somebody and it's they've been retired for some time, and that's sort of the cycle of life. But you know, you go, I think it was Randy Walker maybe the last sitting head coach. That was summer though that wasn't mid season, and so yeah, it this kind of thing, and I'm sure all of us in some way have
been touched by untimely deaths and especially heart disease. You know, it's just boom, it's it's one day, this, one day that, So it's it really does speak to the fragility of it all. And you know, echoing with you said, obviously our thoughts and condolences with everybody touched by Mike Leach and his family in his circle. Just incredibly tragic.
Yep, heavy stuff, so sad news. Always hate to lead with sad news, but sometimes you don't have a choice. So again, thoughts and condolences to those who who knew coach Leach, and as you said, we're in his circle. It's the sad stuff. Yeah, there is no easy transition to go to other subjects, but I will attempt to do so because there are things around the world of college football, thankfully that aren't quite as sad aren't quite as heavy that we did not have an opportunity to
mention if I could get to those. If that's okay with you, Dan, please do.
Williams.
Congratulations he wins the Heisman Trophy. Not a great surprise there that he would win.
C J.
Stroud, Max Dugg and Stetson Bennett were also in New York, but Caleb Williams was the runaway winner, So congratulations to him. He's got the bowl game coming up against Tulane. Purdue has hired Ryan Walters, the defensive coordinator from Illinois, as its new head guy. They're doing so because Jeff Brom decided to go to Louisville. That became official as well since we last recorded. Stanford has named its coach Troy Taylor. Troy Taylor was a name who sort of emerged in
that search. Now he's going to be the head guy as well.
Tim Beck.
Tim Beck going to be the new guy at coastal as such, Grace McCall has decided to throw his name I'm out in the transfer portal. Yeah, I'm sure that was not at all coincidence. But tim Beck going to be taking over at Coast Carolina and in other coaching news. Navy decided to part ways with ken Neiamatalolo after the season after the the Army Navy game here about a week ago. So a bunch of news breaking in the coaching ranks there, in addition to Caleb Williams winning the Heisman Trophy.
Dan, that's a lot of a lot to digest that the run of news items. Uh So, I suppose in some kind of order, the Caleb Williams experience for USC was incredible, and him winning the Heisman, especially who he was pitted against, like you want to talk about the Max Duggan experience incredible obviously, uh CJ. Stroud some incredible highs obviously for the Ohio State offense. Stetson Bennett extremely consistent and I am you know the the engineer on
the Stetson Bennett is actually very good train. Even if we're all joking about the future car dealerships that will make him a very ye yeah, let me put you I saw somebody tweeting him with Spencer Hall, you know, putting you in a Kia Tell You Ride, which is such a funny you know name for a car at
Kia Tell You Ride. I yeah, I don't I Hendon Hooker finishing out the year and having Tennessee he would have been the presumptive favorite if he remained healthy and not getting shelled by South Carolina, I suppose, But that had little to do with Hendon Hooker. Yeah, Blake harm maybe the same thing. It just it was a year of very, very good and the Caleb Williams experience was excellent.
Almost the best quarterback in his conference, says this bitter Oregon, with bon Nicks finishing as a more efficient thrower and runner, but can't lose games, and Caleb Williams by and large won a number of games almost solo. So you tip your cap and you're like, he is the most excellent quarterback and player in college football. Hard to argue with it. Pretty high, Ryan Walters.
Yeah, I think I think it's a good higher. I think it's a low key, awesome higher. I really like, I really really like that hire. It's a guy who's familiar mm hmm with the Big Ten given his fine work at Illinois. Obviously the results have been outstanding. He hopefully will boost that defense on the Purdue side and can give them some new ideas otherwise, so I like it. I like the move a great amount.
I'm in it. I'm into it. Yeah, he's been around big programs. I like that he is as sending right, that Purdue is taking a swing on somebody without a ton of experience, and that he is a younger guy, was a thirty six. Yeah, but I'm into swings. Ty, you know that I am a proud swinger. He set, settle down, set I'm not a proud swinger. I'm deeply a shamed swinger.
I am.
I'm into it, Ty, I just I am. And I think Purdue is a program that is going to have money to play with. If he's good, they can I mentioned this in our discord at verbolers dot com. They can compete with salary. If he's not good, they have the big ten money. That's sweet, nbccbs, whatever cash to
buy him out. And so I always appreciate this over a retread, and so I'm into this higher Troy Taylor, I'm very much into It's kind of funny that Stanford hires a cow guy through and through, but Troy taylor success as an offensive coordinator at Utah, his recent success at Sacramento State. I went back and watching tape of
a very good sax State offense. I think it's been needed for Stanford to start over a little bit, and I like that they went outside of the obviously Jim Harbaugh David shaw Tree to sort of start a new thing with Troy Taylor. So I'm into that higher to see what he can do on the West Coast. And I don't know what else. Did you mention Tim Back? Whatever? Yeah, the Tim Back thing is just notable.
We had to mention it. I think if only because of the Grayson mccallney, that he's still his name in the hat. The Kenya Mono Lolo firing was it took a lot by surprise given what he has accomplished at Navy, But it does feel like things are going to be sideways over the last couple of years.
So did you see the story yesterday about how it all went down? Did you see that on ESPN?
An, I saw it, But if you'd like to recap it, you'd probably do a better job than me.
So he was essentially fired, he claims at his locker after losing in double overtime to Army final score twenty seventeen.
I believe overhit. I think the overhit for the first time in a long time, it seems in that game, and there were quotes from the ad, there were quotes from Kenya Montalolo that expectations were made clear, and that's beating Army and going to bowl games, and Navy has been doing less of that recently and winning the Commander's Commander in Chief's Trophy, whereas I mean that the strength
of that has been with Air Force lately. Who will finished the season I think nine to three in a good Mountain West conference, So it's it's I think a tough pill to swallow, given he is the best Navy coach ever, at least in the modern era, and it just didn't seem to be consistently improving. And at a certain point you reach that breaking moment where you're like, it doesn't seem to be trending in a direction that makes sense now. So there's never a good way to
sort of fire somebody. But if those expectations were laid out well in advance and he didn't meet them, I suppose it could not have come as a complete surprise.
Yeah, it was not a great season for Navy with what four wins, four and eight I think they finished up. But interestingly, bet UCF on the road in Week twelve, which was a bit of a head scratcher when it happened, played Notre Dame tight, played Cincinnati tight enough, talk about a difficult month of November, and then of course they lose the big game against Army in double overtime. So we wish him well. It'll be interesting to see which
direction Navy decides to go next. But a bit of a surprise move, I would say.
Yeah, he mentioned some of the restrictions Navy had. Obviously they were not able to red shirt players, and they didn't bring back players who technically would have had eligibility after the COVID season because of the Navy path to serving in the military after your four years at the Naval Academy. So the class schedule was brought up. There are all sorts of different things brought up, and I'm sure all of them, you know, played some sort of
part and Navy's downturn. But you know, if the expectations were not reasonable to coach Nea Monalolo, he could have left.
So left and he had opportunities, right ken Nea moned.
To have opportunities looked around.
Yeah, there was there there was a minute for coach Neia Monaalolo when he was a hot name out there, and so maybe you can get back to that.
I don't know.
We wish everybody well.
Yeah, I think his reputation in the coaching world is extremely strong.
Shall we get to our bowl? Zoom through? I would love to tie.
Well, we told you today's flight would be special.
Here is the way this is gonna work, Dan. Every year we do a confidence pool. We have done this for about fifteen years running. Now you can play. If you're listening to this, you can play for free at playwinter Wonders dot Com. Go there, enter your email. We will send you the instructions for how to get in the group. All right, plain and simple, no strings attached. This is a confidence pool, though. Explain a confidence pool
works like this. There are forty three bowl games if you count the College Football Playoff National Championship on January the ninth, there are forty three games that you have to pick.
Yes.
The way this works is you pick straight winners, go all the way down. You pick the teams you think are going to win, and then you rank them in order of confidence. Forty three points to the winner that you are most confident in one point to the team that you are least confident in. You astutely mentioned on the last show, I think just playing off the first three words of confidence, Toto, and that maybe, just maybe we should make this con Air.
Theme Welcome to con Air.
So that is what we are doing on today's show, Dan. Throughout the course of the next forty forty five minutes or so, this is going to be a zoom through. We are going to go quick. We will come back to some of the bigger games in due time to preview individual matchups and schemes and point spreads and things of that ilk But for now, we are talking confidence, and we are talking all the games, all the games on this show.
The general plot of Conair is a number of convicts, prisoners vics or correct convicts. Yes, prisoners escorted via a plane. Yes, they overtake the pilots of the plane obviously conn Air and use and try to use the plane to aid in their escape to freedom. Correct, and things go haywire, and their goals go from escaping to surviving and getting
loose and figuring out. Essentially, this is literally landing the plane. Yes, and the treacherous analog that I'm drawing here is nobody knows exactly how to pick bowl games, because of opt outs, because of coaching changes, because of motivation, lack of motivation. You all of a sudden, you're gonna play a bunch of red shirts and younger players to see what you have.
And so from a confidence perspective, it's hard to have a ton of confidence, just like it's hard to fly a number of prisoners through the desert, perhaps onto the Las Vegas Strip. So we're going to do our best to figure out on the fly as we run through these You said, forty three games, I believe how to land this proverbial confidition.
The confidence plane. Yeah. And there were some characters, of course, notably Nick Cage, the one true god of the solid verbal Nick Cage played Cameron Poe. Cameron Poe was the only guy on the plane outside of the undercover US Marshall and maybe the pilots who had any integrity. Cameron Poe was just trying to get home. He was a parole, just trying to get out. He had his struggles, of course when he came home from serving active duty. That's how he ended up in prison in the first place.
But at this point when we meet the character Cameron Poe. Cameron Poe is he's going home and he just wants this plane to get up to land so that he can go and see his wife and daughter. So in this case, Cameron Poe is the game is the winner with integrity that you can count on.
Said, put the bunny back in the box.
That's Cameron Poe. There's also a great character played by John Malkovich, Cyrus Grissom. You know him as Cyrus the Virus.
His name is Cyrus Grissom aka Cyrus the Virus.
That's Agent Lark and that's John Cusack. Also in the movie, John Cusack sets up Cyrus by saying that he's done it all dan kidnapping, robbery, murder, and extortion. He also notes that he's been incarceratored since he was fourteen. That's a lot to do before your age of fourteen. That's a lot. And I think he did a little bit of that when he was he was serving his time, but still that's that's a lot. Cyrus the Virus in this case is the cold calculated upset. Okay, the cold
calculated killer. Yeah, takes down a team that you any means necessary. He says, and then, last, but not least, that's William Bedford aka Billy Bedlam. Billy Bedlam is just that Billy Bedlam caught his wife with another man and then just lost it. He's pure chaos. That's why they call it daily Bedlam. We've got games here in front of us that I think are pure chaos. So obviously not all the games are going to rise to any
of these levels. But these are just a few of the characters that we're going to interject as we go through this confidence pool. Love to hear it, all, right, what are your rules for picking teams? I think you rightfully pointed out that when we get to Bowl season, a confidence pool is harder than it looks. We're picking straight winners. Usually we're picking against the points spread. We're not doing that here because that's not the way the
confidence pool works. We can give those picks out a little bit later, But on today's show, when we're doing the zoom through where we're talking about all these games, we need to have rules, some rules, some guiding precepts when it comes to who we're picking and who we're not. I have a couple that you know that I talk about every year. I modify them a little bit every year.
I think I finally got it figured out to go forty three and oh just saying, oh, look at you, just saying, but I just want to know where you're at here. Are there any rules that you live by with respect to the Winter Wonders Bowl Confidence Pool? Okay?
So I always I love picking against the MAC. I just think as a conference, the defenses put out by MAC teams, by and large, if they aren't already exposed by the MAC offenses that they face during the season, they surely will buy teams from the American buy this, you know, in the sun Belt, in the Mountain West, whatever. So I like picking against the macpec Mac please do I love some action? I do. I love some midweek football taking place in Toledo or uh I'm you know, decalb Illinois.
Wherever, Sure, Buffalo.
But I like picking against MAC teams come bullseason confidence full time. I tend to look at defenses as an indicator of effort, and a lot of Bowl to me
is motivation and effort. And I think there is something about defenses, especially in the defenses, that prevent bigger plays, which is tackling, which is focus which is adjusting and also a past rush, because pass rushes can cover for a lot of deficiencies, and by the end of the season, a lot of people are hurt all over the defense, all over the offense, a lot of people are tired, a lot of people are upset that they're missing the holidays with their family. But if you've got a pass rush,
you can cover up for all of that. If paper over it, if you can muster the energy to what is our friend Jesse Palmer like to say, you pin your ears back and third in California whatever, Uh, if you got that, if you have that ability to summon that and just absolutely torch it, tackle here and there, I'm into your team in the ability to win a game. So defense, now we have to look at opt outs,
we have to look at coaching changes. That's meaningful. Obviously, deeper teams are going to mean a better position, promising youth getting on the field. Whatever. It's better than having to play a bunch of walk ons at outside linebacker. So there is context that matters that we're just not going to have for every single team. But by and large, all things being equal, pick against the mac roll with the defense, especially if they're a better tackling team and have a better pass rush.
I have two basic rules with okay, a couple parts to the second rule.
Those are good rules. Those are good rules.
And as as is typical here.
On the show, you went a little bit deeper than I'm about to. It's okay.
Stuff's big picture, your stuff is. So we're giving folks a little bit of everything here, hopefully that can guide their picks. I've talked about this rule for fifteen years. The first rule here, it's the old East Coast Elliot rule. I've been preaching at this altar for years now. He sold me on it. I think it's the only way to fly when it comes to confidence pools.
Good reference to the only way to fly with con Air. It's intentional, but you nailed it.
I am a pro after all, Repeat after me. Load up your confidence points early early early ESPN dot Com. Ever, every other side I've ever seen that offers a confidence pool will by default rank the last games with the most points. So the National Championship, it'll put forty three points on it. You don't even know who's going to
play in that game, right, all right? Typically those are the ones that people like to load up with the most points, because those are the teams that you know and love and root for or root against.
Yeah, they have the biggest fan bases in the biggest platform during the.
Year, and so a lot of people, not just the default setting by any of these websites, but a lot of people when they're picking these pools, they put the most points on those games. I am saying, flip the script, love it, flip the script. Those late games are often the hardest to predict, and you get I think, bigger matchups, bigger mismatches in your matchups early, So.
Use that to your vantage.
Flip the script. Load up on your confidence points early. Put more points on those early games now in the past.
So by the way, just if I can, yeah, jump on top of that time really quick. Those are early games that you're referencing. This market inefficiency, I suppose is the correct term, right. A lot of them feature a lot of duct tape bowl teams who are beat like they got there, beating the one hundred and thirtieth EX
one and twenty sixth, the one hundred and nineteenth. Your acrons, I'll due respect to Akron, your your Nevadas, whatever that they're beating a number of teams to get Bawl eligible, which, by the way, winning is better than losing get ball eligible. That's great, that's an accomplishment. But also if they don't have a win over the seventy third best team or the forty eighth best team, or the ninety first best team, via whatever metric you would like to choose. I know,
we look at SPP plus. That's a nice little indicator in that early going in the it's not Guild in New Mexico Bowl anymore, but in the New Mexico Bowl, in the Independence Bowl, whatever, take a look at who they actually beat to get Bowl eligible. And there's a lot of those duct tape matchups, a lot a lot of duct tape matchups. My final point on this, and then I'll move on.
To rule two.
Please.
The rule for me used to be, I tell everybody sight unseen whatever, the first like five to ten games are just sight unseen. Pick who you think is going to win, and then put the most points on those games. Be a little bit more discriminate, okay, Like yeah, like
just pick and choose. I would say your first four or five games the ones that the most points should be in the first week of bowl season doesn't have to be the first day, like I said in the past, because there are a couple here as I'll go through that I had a hard time with. But first week is where you want to I think, load up on your points, don't save it all for the end. Okay, yep.
Also continue continue second.
Rule, and you alluded to this. You want to pick the teams that care. Yeah, and this has always been the key to confidence pools to bowl pools.
Really you think care?
Right?
Yeah, exactly.
I mean coaches who leave prior to bowl games have always played a factor. We've always had to consider that. But there are more variables now, and you mentioned it. You've got the opt outs, You've got transfers.
It is not easy.
It is harder than ever to figure out truly which teams give a damn. And so I have my own little process here that I've invented to consider which teams care to figure out which team's care by considering a couple different factors.
First off, if a.
Team played like crap down the stretch, don't pick them. So like Oklahoma State, I'm not picking Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State's playing Wisconsin. Wisconsin has also not had a great season, obviously fired its coach, but Oklahoma State has looked terrible. Their quarterback is also transferring, which I can talk about here in a little bit. Yeah, they were one of the pack it up packet in teams. Don't pick Oklahoma State.
So first and foremost, if you come across a team that played poorly down the stretch, don't pick them.
Great.
Secondly, maybe a team didn't play like crap, but if they're about to be decimated with injuries, with opt outs, with transfers, that means a lot of new faces. Like you said, you got red shirts starting all of a sudden getting snapped. A lot can go wrong in that scenario, Dan, So maybe don't pick that team.
Right.
Texas is a good example. Texas is losing Jean Robinson and Roshawn Johnson in addition to Demarvian overshown from the defense. Meanwhile, you've got Washington and Michael Pennick junior who could have left but didn't. And on top of it, said I'm playing the bowl game, all right, good indication, maybe you should take Washington. I'm going to be taking Washington.
Galvanizes the locker room, right. Pennick's coming back. You know you have this surprise first year winning. They went ten and two.
Right, one two, ten and two. I don't have the sound, but yeah, tend to a good season by any stretch. For Kaalen de Bore absolutely next and then the third and final factor. Again, consider them in this very specific order. If a team lost its coach, consider picking against them. Now I used to say pick against them sight unseen. I have backed off that because I don't think it means as much as I thought in the past. I think it's less important than the last month of the season.
Let's look at the last month of the season. Let's see who cares and who doesn't. But also can see you have to consider if teams lost its coach. We have seen teams do just fine with an interim, and that's why I think I tend to look at this last So like the Sincy Louisville game is very interesting to me on a number of different levels. It's ridiculous because both teams lost coaches, but Louisville is getting crushed in addition with opt outs with transfers and all that.
So I'm going to probably pick Cincinnati, but consider the coach thing. Just not as much as maybe I have in years past.
Do you know what I just did for you, ty please? I came up with an acronym for your system. Oh, it's the care acronym c oh period A, period R period E. Cause that's it' that's your system, right, It's who cares? Right is who is the one caring the most? See for crap, don't pick them, don't pick them, don't pick crap. Don't pick crap. A about to be a new team decimated by opt outs, injuries and coach losses are real scary picking interim coaches and e for end of year finish.
Yeah that's pretty good, right, you didn't. You went a little bit out of order, but you got all the main components.
I literally went in the order that you went in. Oh okay, I just was typing as you were talking. I was a stenographer. You're very good at completely made up system. You're very good at this, yeah, craft. So that is my rule, the care rubric, if you will. Yeah, is how I go about determining this. And I tried to apply it as best I could. I'm sure I missed a few, but Dan and I have picked all of our games. We have put the confidence points on.
Each and we are going to do a zoom through. We're going to try and highlight players that have opted out, coaches that have left, key injuries, things that you need to know. This is a developing story in that there will be names that decide to opt out after we record this. But we're doing this about as close to December the sixteenth as we can, giving you all a chance to listen to this, hopefully to guide your picks in some way, shape or form correct. Shall we dive in,
Let's do it. We're gonna go quick. We're gonna go quick.
Let's zoom.
The hometown lenders. Bahamas Bowl is the first one. They play it on Friday, December the sixteenth, eleven thirty am. It's an early spot on ESPN. It's Miami, Ohio. It is uab uab is favored by eleven points for Miami. Interesting scenario here. This is Miami, Ohio. By the way, just for those of you playing along at home wondering Miami what Bowl game? It's the other one up north.
Brett Gabbert he entered the portal and then opted to return, So I don't know if he's playing, but he's back he's not going to go in the portal after all. UAB favored by eleven. I am all in on UAB here. I think they're the better team, and true to form, I am putting all of my points, not all my points, but the most amount of points allowable, forty three points on UAB. Right out of the shoot, you.
Think Trent Dilfer is going He's going to be in the Bahamas.
I mean probably there will be a booth shot with him wearing some sort of Hawaiian shirt.
Do you have in your notes how the cloud of FTX and Sam Bankman freed hanging over the Bahamas is going to affect the outcome of this game? They picked.
That's he's flying on cone Air over to the states Man. True, he's on Connie's He's like on the front seat there.
I have UAB because I like picking against mac teams.
Right, Okay, so we agree.
We agree.
Also on Friday the sixteenth, the Deluthe Trading Cure Bowl between UTSA and Troy, Troy favored by about one point. They play this one in Orlando at three pm. Again on Friday the sixteenth, Troy favor by one point. Dan, mm hmm. This is one of those early games that I was not confident in at all. I really like UTSA. I also really like Troy in the defense, but I tend to have more confidence in a guy like Big Frank Harris and UTSA and where they've been over the
last two years or so. So I've got eight points on UTSA I have.
I haven't given us specific numbers for all of these games, but I am taking Troy. I'm going with the defense here. UTSA just loses their offensive coordinator, so that falls under your ker rubric Willstein to Oregon, and so I'm rolling with the defense. I don't really count on the Troy offense all that much, but here's what Troy does. Trojans win games, and UTSA obviously as well. But yeah, I'm going with my rubric here and rolling with.
The d Saturday, December the seventeenth, The Wasabi Fenway Bull. You a fan of Wasabi?
I think this is a company named was Sabi, not sponsored by the Spicy Route.
It is not sponsored by the Japanese horse Radish no right, but this was Sabi is a cloud storage company for those of you wondering. This game is between Cincinnati and Louisville. They play it in Fenway Park eleven am, Saturday, December the seventeenth. A couple things of note. Cincinnati lost Luke Fickel, he went to Wisconsin. Also, they've got a tight end and Trey Tucker who also opted out, so they won't
be playing. But on the Louisville side, and this is what I alluded to earlier, they lose Scott Saderfield, who's going to Cincinnati. Not awkward at all. I'm sure Malik Cunningham opt out. K Trell Clark, the cornerback, entered the draft. He has opted out. Tyon Evans and Tyler Hudson running back receiver also not expected to play for the Cardinals, So I understand why this is a pick them. But I'm going Cincinnati here. Nine confidence points, nine confidence points.
Not overly confident here, but I feel pretty good about Cincinnati.
Yeah, I'm going Cincinnati here as well, both defense. I know they're down their quarterback as well to injury their starting quarterback, but I'm going with defense here. In a I think this is more of a Caer Rubric thing. Yeah, that the number of players that Louisville is missing, obviously losing their head coach. Yeah, I'm going with Cincinnati. Even though they lost their head coach, I still think there's a little more seasoning there on defense. So yeah, give me the Bearcats.
The Cricket Celebration Bowl between Jackson State and North Carolina Central. They play this one at noon Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This one got me last year, if memory serves, I remember going I think all in on Jackson State and they lost yes in the bowl game. So now we've got a scenario in which Deon Sanders has left. Where's Jackson State at dan?
I have no idea. They probably have lost some players that are following Deon Sanders. I assume Travis Hunter is going to follow him. I obviously Deon Sanders' son, Deon Sanders already said like, yeah, he's your new starting quarterback, but he's gonna have to earn it. So I can't imagine things are great in Jackson for Jackson State right now. So I went back and forth. I'm going n C Central? Why not are you? Yeah? Okay, yeah, why not?
I'm going Jackson State forty one points? Okay, I think they're the better team. Who's playing who knows the SRS distribution? Las Vegas Bowl. Got all that to mouth.
Yes, I do.
Florida against Oregon State. Oregon State favored by ten. They play it in Vegas, hence the name of the Las Vegas Bowl. Two thirty pm Eastern Time on ABC SRS. For those of you wondering, the fastest growing distributor of building products in the United States, I didn't know that.
Oh good to know.
I love what these companies write about themselves on their website. We can talk about that a little bit later on. Trust me, some notables here on the Florida side, Anthony Richardson gone going pro, opted out, Jack Miller the third getting his first start for the Gators at quarterback, Osirus.
State transfer, I believe, Yeah, yeah, that's right.
Osirius Torrance and Ventrel Miller two big guns, right, Osiris Torreans on the offensive line, Ventra Miller on defense. They have declared for the drag if they're not playing. Justin Shorter receiver has declared and opted out. Gervin Dexter, the big defensive lineman, has declared for the draft. But it's going to play. Oh good, he's gonna play. And on the Oregon State side, you've got Damian Martinez, who is returning from injury and expected to play. But no opt outs.
I'm running back.
Yeah, at least not at time of recording. No coaching movement, nothing like that. Oregon State favored by ten. I'm all in an Oregon state here. I'm all in an Oregon state. Thirty seven points for the Beaves.
I am completely in on Oregon State as well. I think the defensive advantage that they're ascending in Florida doesn't fit your caer rubric all that well because of the opt outs, because of the motivation to be there. I think, and here's a nice tie in term tie. He just talked about Tyon Evans, but there's a tie in with building services supplies, whatever you say, SRS. I think Oregon State, and this is a tie into the Beavers as well. I think they're laying the lumber here, tie. I think
they're going to lay the lumber on the gators in US. Yeah, I'm going to be I'm a Beaver believer in this context.
The Jimmy Kimmel La Bowl presented by Stefel Steffel Sti f El.
Okay, it's a global wealth.
Management and investment company kind of a letdown with a name like Stefel.
Yeah, that's true.
Bit of a letdown. We got Washington State, we got Fresno State. Fresno favored by three points here. They play this one in Sofi Stadium three point thirty pm Eastern Time again Saturday of the seventeenth. Wazoo lost their defensive coordinator to Asu, Brian Ward and wide receivers Donovan Ali, Jean Striblin, Trevion Brown, Francisco Maui GOA. I probably botched that.
That's OK.
Guys entering the portal also Dayan Henley, their first team All Pac twelve linebacker, and Renard Bell won't play in this game. Will be down Cale Sanders, who entered the portal the defensive back but otherwise intact played well one the Mountain West down the stretch. They are favored by three. I'm not overly confident in this one, but I do like Fresno here. I like fourteen confidence points.
I like Fresno a medium amount as well, just because of what's returning on that offense. I don't love the Fresno defense, but the fact that they finished strong. So there's the e and your care end of year. So they finished strong they win the Mountain West. I'm good with Fresno here. If they were playing straight up in
the middle of the year, I'd probably take Wazoo. But given the losses, especially Brian Ward, I think, and also the element of Fresno having players looking to pop one last time on a bigger stage than normal ahead of the draft. Yes, I'm with the dogs here.
Lending Tree Bowl Rice versus Southern Miss. Southern Miss favored by six and a half points. They play this one Inmobile at Hancock Whitney Stadium, Whitney Stadium, excuse me. In the evening on again, December the seventeenth, Rice waiting to hear what the status will be of Luke McCaffrey, who's still playing and is a receiver for Rice. It's true missed the last two games of the season, so we'll find out more on him as we get a little bit closer. Also a bit of uncertainty about who's playing
quarterback for the Owls, with Wiley Green and TJ. McMahon uncertain for the bowl game. I don't have a huge opinion here one way or the other. I do believe in looking at the numbers, that Southern Miss is the better team. They're favored by a touchdown. Let's go Southern Miss forty confidence points.
Yeah, I'm going Southern Miss. A really good pass rush and so I'm going with the defense. The Rice uncertainty shouldn't class over the fact that Rice doesn't make bowl games no, and they made a bowl game no. So that is very very close. So in terms of motivation excitement, it seems like it lies with the owls. But I'm going with the defense in Southern Miss here.
The New Mexico Bowl that I don't believe is sponsored by Guilden anymore.
Ah too bad.
SMU a one and a half point favorite against BYU the Battle of the Acronyms here at University Stadium at seven thirty pm Eastern time. SMU will be without Rashi Rice. There's a big name wide out who is not going to play due to a toe injury. But he had thirteen hundred yards ten touchdowns. He's a big deal, big deal to lose him. On the BYU side, we had Jaren Hall who got hurt at the end of the
regular season. He's expected to play in this one. It's important to note that his backup just for depth purposes, Jacob Conover transferred, I believe to Arizona State. Oh okay, so Jaren Hall is nicked up and unable to play, could be could be a problem here at quarterback for BYU. Also there, linebacker Keenan Peeley entered the portal. He was their second leading tackler. Sorry did you say key and peel Keenan Peeley? Oh okay, Sorry, it hurt it incorrectly.
I'm going BYU here, and I hate that I am, But the Rashi Rice thing scares me. B YU may have the worst pass rush in America just by the underlying numbers, and that's worries some. But the fact that they struggled the way that they did, basically through the meaty part of their schedule, but regathered themselves, which is pretty rare to win like they did near the end of the year. They beat Boise, did they not? Yeah? I think I'm going BYU here because SMU did not
feel the great defense themselves this year at times. I won't BYU here. I'm going I'm going with the Cougars here because I think there is there there's a rebuy in happening, a rebuy.
I'm gonna go SMU fifteen confidence points not particularly high. Okay, Frisco boy, you mentioned Boise Boise State.
I said, put the bunny back in the box. Like this.
Boise States a Cameron po team. To me, I feel like I can trust him. I feel like I know what I've got on that plane. Ten point favorite in the Frisco Bowl over North Texas. North Texas just lost their coach, which you know, say.
What you will.
Maybe it's like those of their coach. They got rid of their well, they got rid of their coach's it's gonna be a different coach, right, Yeah. Seth Latrell will not be out there at Toyota Stadium in Frisco at nine pm Eastern time again December the seventeenth.
Boise.
I'm not sure what the deal is with Stephan Cobbs. He missed the last two games due to injury. Maybe he'll be back, maybe he won't. But even though Boise lost in the Mountain West Championship, they've played really, really well down the stretch, and I just feel like them playing against North Texas, even though the game's in Texas. They've been riding a bit of a hot streak. I feel very confident in the Broncos here, so give me forty two confidence points on Boise.
I'm going Boise big as well for all the reasons you laid out, and yeah the rebuying that happened after like the first three weeks of the season. Even though they lose the Mountain West Championship game, I still think there's enough to like about Boise, and they get the defensive advantage to me as well.
Let's continue the zoom through Monday, December nineteenth, Myrtle Beach Bowl Marshall minus ten Yukon into a bowl game. Yes, sir, that's a good story unto itself. They play this one Brooks Stadium, Conway, South Carolina. That's Coastal's home stadium. Dan, I'm a Marshall here with thirty six confidence points.
I'm on Marshall big as well because of the defense, and I think there's buying as well, So I'm going with Marshall here. I think they fit the care more though Yukon feisty. I agree. I'm gonna roll with the defense.
The next day, December the twentieth, the famous idahop p Tato Bowl Eastern Michigan versus San Jose State. San Jose State favored by three and a half points. I didn't really have a lean here, to be perfectly honest with you, they play this one in boise on the spurf turf. I've got ten confidence points on San Jose State. I feel like I know a little bit more about San Jose State, even though I'm not supremely confident at all. This could go either way.
To me, I am going with UH with San Jose State, maybe a little bit more confident, just because I like to pick against the mac.
Yeah.
Oh that's right.
Also, the Hawkins packout is a very good burger stand in Boisettle if you're going to this game. Yeah.
The roof Claimed hot com Bowl is what they say in their website. We handle your roof replacement from start to finish, something for you, as a new homeowner might want to add to your rolodex.
That's true. You never know, have you had roofing issues at all?
Not yet?
Not yet, knock on wood.
I should probably not say this too loudly.
Okay.
I could have done that move where you know, the roof guys come around after the big storm and offer replace your room and charge it back to insurance. I didn't do that I felt guilty about it because my roof seemed okay, all right, everybody around me got a new roof.
We didn't damn okay.
And I don't think solid. Wife Kate was too happy that I decided to kind of stick to my scruples there.
But all right, your own personal cyrus the virus continue.
We've got Liberty, We've got Toledo. Toledo favored by five points. They play this one in Boca Ratone. Hugh Freeze left for Auburn on the Liberty side. Also a mod Walker and Dre Butler, both on defense, entered the portal. I like Toledo. I like Toledo in the championship game a couple weeks ago, and we talked about that. They won that game. They are favored by five here. I'm still a little questionable when it comes to Toledo on offense, but I do believe in this team a little bit
more than I should. So let's go Rockets. Toledo's sixteen confidence points.
Yeah, all of my reasons point to Toledo, except for picking MAC teams. Let's go Liberty here.
Wow, you're really sticking to your guns that much. I am the RNL carriers New Orleans Bowl Descember the twenty first, Western Kentucky, South Alabama. South Alabama favored by seven and a half points. They played this one the super Dome, so it's a nice spot for both these teams. I've said before that this is a matchup that I'm very interested in.
That's William Bedford akaa Billy Bedlam.
I think this game could be fun as hell.
Definitely.
I think this game could be fun as hell. So on the western side, we had Austin Reid the quarterback, enter the portal. I believe we saw that he might be headed to Louisville, though I haven't seen that confirmed, which means that we're gonna have Darius Ocean or Caden Veilt Kemp Vilt Comms starting a quarterback. They have a combined sixteen passes this year for Western Kentucky. Also Joshua Simon.
They've got starting offensive linemen Ricky Stats and Gunner Britain who are transferring as well, So a lot of turnover on the western side. South Alabama's been pretty good. They play a good brand defense. Both teams are questionable when it comes to offense on some level, at least in terms of the sp plus. But I like South Alabama and the defense more than anything in this matchup, and I think they will be motivated. So I've got thirty eight on the Jags.
It's not right to look at one single data point of a game to make a decision like this when there are so many variables. But Jaguars South Alabama were like a gusta wind away from beating UCLA. Were they not correct?
Correct?
I'm going South Alabama for defense and for all the changes ones that you mentioned Austin Reid here, So yeah, give me the Jaguars to finish with an incredibly impressive season. Yeah.
And to be clear, when I say questionable on offense, Western Kentucky was fine on offense throughout the course of the year, but losing the quarterback, that's totally That's where the question marks I think come into play. So I am going to go South Alabama. Thursday twenty second Armed Forces Bowl. Baylor Air Force play this one at Fort Worth, Aman G Carter Sadium or TCU plays. Baylor fired Ron Roberts defensive coordinator. Also Devin Neil safety is transferring. But
they're favored by six and a half points. Here. This is a game where I would not want to bet Baylor minus the points because of the way that air Force plays football. They take the air out of the ball, they run the crap out of the ball. I could see this one actually being close. But I do believe Baylor will prevail. I think Baylor is the better team. I just wouldn't want to touch this one with respect to the points, Brett, So let's go Bear's seventeen confidence points.
I kind of love air Force here, like medium high confidence like air Force. Really, I think it's a bad matchup for Baylor. Why for the reasons you laid out, I mean defense and running the ball. I just don't. I don't like Baylor's defense going up against air Force on the ground and the way Baylor has struggled at times to be creative and be downfield this year on offense. With air Force's very specific strengths on defense, I'm going
falcons here. I don't trust Baylor. Do you really trust Baylor to win win a game against a good team?
I don't. And the other thing that I would add is that air Force is pretty good on defense.
No, no, they're full on good on very good. They lost their defensive coordinator before the year and they continued it, and I there's something that's been very consistently good. Now, they're not going to generate the big plays, but they don't try to do that. On offense. They have a top ten sp plus defense. They prevent big plays, they're they're efficient against regular plays. Whatever.
So hold on, whooo is they tackle super well? Is air Force one of your Cyrus the Virus upset teams?
Absolutely?
Is Cyrus Christom aka Cyrus the Virus.
And how do you not roll with a team named air Force when we're doing a con air preview. That's not a bad You're going against the spirit of our game.
I am, I am. I'm gonna stick with Baylor. I'm gonna stick to my guns.
Ago bails agree.
The Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl DAN website's very vague about about what they do. Quote, we provide intelligence analysis and war fighters support to the intelligence community, Department of Defense, and we enable effective military operations to protect our troops from harm. Oh okay, whatever that means very vagistics. Yeah, they're involved in some stuff, let's put it that way. Absolutely, it's Louisiana, It's Houston. Houston favored by six and a
half points. Louisiana there without their quarterback for most of the season, be Wooldridge, who was hurt in mid November. Chandler Field, who you may recalls the original starter of the season. He is going to get the nod here. He played the last two games on the Houston side. Nathaniel Dell declared for the draft, but will play any
bank whenever you've got that scenario. And there are a couple more here that we're going to talk about the star players who are going pro, but the side they're playing any way, that indicates effort, that indicates care belief. Give me Houston thirty nine points.
I'm going to Houston. Maybe not that many, but medium high. Absolutely, I'm wing Houston as well.
Union Home Mortgage Gaspareable, Wake Forest, Missouri. We've got Wake favored by one point. They play this one in Tampa. On the Wake side, Christian Turner, the second leading rusher, is transferring. Also Gavin Holmes, the other Gavin Holmes defensive back transferring as well. For Missoo, they lose Dominica love It who is transferring. Also, three key defenders in Isaiah Maguire, DJ Coleman and Martes Manuel have opted out because they are going pro so in terms of teams that care.
Even though there is turnover on the Missoo side, Maszoo had to fight and scrape and claw to get into this bowl game at all. They beat Arkansas, I believe, yeah, by speak of the season in order to get into this thing. So I think it means something to them that they got to this game. Wake Forest petered out a little bit down the stretch. I'm going Missoo eighteen to Miszoo as well. Yeah, I'm into Brady Cook. I'll
say it one more time. I'm into Brady Cook. I Missoo's record was like fourteen seconds away from being very different, and so the fact that they finished the season the way that they did against Arkansas, even losing the guys they lost on defense, this was a more Havocy team than they've been.
I'm going to Miszoo.
All right, We've made it to Christmas Eve. We got to continue this zoom through Baby Place. We got to zoom through Hawaii Bowl. Middle Tennessee State, San Diego State. San Diego State favored by seven Dan Easy Posts. The smarter shipping solution For those wondering, I'm on the Aztecs here nineteen confidence points.
I'm on San Diego State as well. Middle Tennessee is a duct tape team exclusively beating cupcakes.
Quick Lane Bowl on the day after Christmas. New Mexico State Bowling Green. Bowling Green, the Falcons, favored by two and a half points, plays one at Ford Field. I don't really have a lean. I'm going with the favorite eleven confidence points. Gimme Bowling Green, have fun. I pick against the Mac New Mexico State for me. Tuesday, December the twenty seventh, Georgia Southern three and a half points the Favorite, squaring off against Buffalo. They played this one
at the Crampton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Buffalo is going to be without Ron Cook Junior and Alja Henderson. Both guys did not play in the regular season finale. Georgia Southern for me, Georgia Southern.
For me, give me Clay Elton and Georgia Southern. I pick against MAC teams.
First Responder Bowl, Memphis minus seven squaring off against Utah State. They play this game in Dallas. I'm on Memphis twenty one confidence points.
I'm on Memphis as well. Utah State strikes me as a duct tape team, So I'm will in Memphis. They don't have huge wins, but they were competitive against the best teams that they faced, and that is not necessarily what you can say about Utah State. So I'm going in Memphis.
Here tickets Smarter Birmingham Bowl. Coastal Carolina against East Carol. The Battle of the Carolina is. We've got the Pirates favored by ten and a half points. Dan okay. On the coastal side, there's been some turnover. In case you are unaware, Jamie Chadwell left for Liberty. They're starting center and a first team all Sun belter, and Willie Lampkin is in the portal. Jasiah Stewart, Manny Stokes, Zikwan Reeves
are all transferring. In addition to now Grayson McCall, who has announced as of yesterday today is the thirteenth excuse me that he is also entering the transfer portal. So a lot going on on the coastal side, not a lot of reason to really feel good about them. ECU does have a couple guys in the portal as well, but I feel like in totality, just too much turnover on the coastal side too much bet.
That's William Bedford ak Billy Betham.
Gonna go East Carolina, and I may have if Grace McCall was playing, just because the coastal defense is that bad. So I'm going to ECU because I think there's be able to light up the coastal secondary guaranteed rate boll Wisconsin minus three against Oklahoma State. I'm twenty three points on Wisconsin despite the fact that there is a lot of turnover, so listen to this thing. Wisconsin loses Graham Mertz, which means that Chase Wolf or Miles Burkett is going
to get the start at quarterback. They're also going to be without Joe Tipman their center, Keanu Benton, their defensive lineman, and Jay Shaw their cornerback. Nathan Herbig declared for the NFL Draft. They've got an interim coach and Jim Leonard who will stay on for the bowl.
Game but won't be retained as the full time coach. A lot to consider on that side. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State played like crap down the stretch. As we eluded at the top of the show. They also are going to be without Spencer Sanders, who has entered the porter, which means Gunner Gundy or Garrett Wrangell under center. They're going to lose their linebacker Mason Cobb. They're running back Dominic richardson their n Trace Ford in their safety Thomas Harper the transfer.
It's a lot.
Give me Wisconsin twenty three confidence points. This is going to be a terrible game to watch.
With Wisconsin as well. It's just things don't seem great and still water at the moment.
Military Bowl presented by Perroton, not Peloton. I'm I hear you, Perroton. Here is what their website says about them. Do the can't be done? Okay, do the can't be done?
Yeah? English is optional. I understand.
They drive missions of consequence, spanning the globe and extending to the farthest reaches of the galaxy.
Dan, can I pick against them? Continue? It is UCF.
It is Duke. Duke's favored by one. Dan no notables on the Duke's side. The UCF is going to be with without Mikey Keene there there saw that for a moment in time, backup slash starting quarterback. He entered the portal. I o'keef their top receiver, their top linebacker, Jeremiah Jean Baptiste is in the portal in addition to Devonte Brown, so a couple key contributors on the UCS side we're going to be out. And John Rice Plumbley has been dealing with a hammy and a shoulder throughout the last
part of the season, so who knows his status. I presume he'll be healthy. But going up against a Duke team that gets to a bowl had a good eight and four a season, give me the Blue Devils twenty four confidence points.
I'm going with Duke here as well. And by the way, you mentioning mikey Keen entering the portal is just a reminder to me of how many quarterbacks are in the portal, that we're entering this sort of task rabbitization yea of quarterback play. We're like, look, I got a job, you have some abilities. How much is it going to cost us? I don't want to do it. So, mikey Keen, if you want to play quarterback for US, Louisville or cal Poly whatever, I'm in on Duke.
Here, the AutoZone Liberty will getting the zone Dan please, and let's talk Kansas. Let's talk Arkansas. Arkansas favored by three. This is a Cyrus game.
For name is Cyrus grissin.
Gimme Kansas thirty three confidence points? What I'm going in on the Jayhawks? Baby? They care?
You know they care.
When was Kansas in a bowl game last It's been so long I don't even have it here on my sheet, So we know they care.
The Arkansas.
They look the dog's going nuts downstairs. Yeah, arkansaw maybe got itself together down the stretch. Okay, But defensive coordinator Baryotam leaves for UNLV. They're linebacker Drew Sanders, who was a first team All Secer. Their center Ricky Stromberg, whose first team All at SEC opted out. They're preparing for the NFL draft. Bumper Pool is also out the linebacker due to injury. Defensive back Miles Slusher and receivers Jayden Hazelwood as well as key Tron Jackson have entered the portal.
So there is turnover on offense, there's turnover on defense, and they're playing against a team that und addedly cares more about this bowl game getting the zone. Thirty three points? Give me the Jayhawks.
How did Kansas finish the season out? I'm here to talk about the future. Well, I'm talking about Caring, right, and that isn't that the e It is the e Ian Caring is end of year finish. They lose six of their final seven, though they do beat Oklahoma State thirty seven to sixteen comfortably. So there's your pick against Oklahoma State there. But yeah, they lose by fifteen to Texas Tech. They lose by quick math here forty one to Texas and twenty to Kansas State. Obviously away from home,
kind of a different team. I'm going with Arkansas as kJ Jefferson is there, I hate it, but I'm going kJ Jefferson.
The Holiday Ball is your Oregon Ducks is North Carolina play it at Petco Park where the Pets go in San Diego.
It is.
An interesting matchup here, Oh, on a couple different levels. Kenny Dillingham left, the offensive coordinator for Oregon, left to go to ASU. Justin Flow Dante Thornton are transferring on the Oregon side. Christian Gonzales declared for the NFL and opted out the cornerback. Yes, on the un they're arguably best defensive player. Yeah, the best defensive player. Neither one of these team is very good on defense. But I
do think the UNC side is more problematic. Right, we had Phil Longo left the post of offensive coordinator for Wisconsin. He's taken that jobs. Josh Downs has opted out declared for the draft their best receiver. We have Keyshawn Silver, Tony Grimes, and Storm Duck. On the defensive side, speaking of good defenders that are entering the portal, they're all gone, not playing.
I don't even know if they're good, but they're the best defensive backs in North Carolina. Has yeah, Oregon favored by fourteen.
I think for good measure, they're my cameras put the bunny back and I just trust him. I trust Oregon's offense. I trust Dan Lanning. Here, they're a fourteen point favorite. I think for good reas twenty nine confidence points in the Ducks.
So okay, the only reason to pick against Oregon, or if you are going to pick against Oregon and you believe in North Carolina, you should pick against Oregon. More reasons to pick against Oregon. You've mentioned Christian Zalez. I haven't heard anything. I don't know the situation of Noah Sule. I anticipate he is going to enter the draft. I've noid if he's gonna opt out of this game. Same
goes for Brandon Dorriles their best defensive lineman. No clue they've been decimated, but it's been a lot of backups in rotation guys, not a lot of star power that's been lost to the portal for Oregon. Is this the best quarterback matchup of bull season? It might be, Yeah, I'm going through I mean, the other one would be
Stetson Bennett and c J. Stroud, I suppose. But in terms of pure excellence at quarterback, bo Nick's season and the majority of Drake May's season with no defense, isn't me should be a very, very fun shootout of a game. I'm going with Oregon here because I can at least see how with additional time they're defense could get a couple of stops, considering the way that Drake May finish the season sort of up and down fashion as a freshman. So I'm going with Boon Nicks, who has already announced
that he's playing in this game. So whether or not he's leaving for the draft I yet to be seen at the time we're recording this. But if that's part of your care thing, Oregon did not finish the season in strong fashion, losing to Washington and Oregon State, but bon Knicks deciding to come back and still having the firepower at running back, receiver and tight end and obviously offensive line that they do. A healthy bon Nicks is to me the best player in this game.
You know, they may not have finished the season as strongly however, however, take a look at UNC. UNC not only is losing a bunch in terms of defenders what remained of the defense, but also losing the best receiver. And also we talked about it at length throughout the course of the season, throughout the latter half of the season, throughout November. Hmm, seemed like teams figured out in North
Carolina a little bit to some extent. So I take your point on Oregon, but it doesn't phaze me, especially since I think Caroline is in a worse spot there. It is Texas Bowl. We got Texas Tech, we got Old Miss, Old Miss favored by three and a half points, Dan, I want Old Miss twenty six points.
Look the way Old Miss finished the season, was it not one of our Atlanta Hall of Fame inductees. Lane Kiffin's first twenty nine quarters wasn't a great back half after those twenty nine quarters, Texas Tech defense quietly pretty good, certainly improved over where they were last year with Tim de Ruder. I'm going with Tech here.
I don't hate it. I don't hate it. The Cyrus that's my chaos, Yeah, Cyrus christ A. Yeah, it's a little bit of an upset game.
Yep.
I don't hate it, but I'm gonna go old miss I like him on the ground.
Love it all right.
Bad Boy Mower's pinstripe bowl new eras out bad Boy mowers are, and it takes brains. It takes brawn to build a mower as ruggedly, simple to operate, easy to maintain, and provide the best value. That's bad Boy mowers. Dan. I saw bad Boy mower in the wild the other day. How'd it look with every other mower?
Fair enough? I was gonna say you were sort of flowery reading that copy there, but then you brought it back down to earth with saying it was a very average mower.
Okay for Syracuse. Robert and I left four NC State from Minnesota. Tanner Morgan missed the last three games of the season due to injury. It's unclear if he's going to play in this one. Okay, we also have defenders Braillen Oliver and safety Michael Dixon entrying the portal. Minnesota
favored by seven and a half points. Speaking of finishing the season with a bit of a whimper, there's Syracuse now started off great, got their qualification to get to a bowl game, and then just sort of like cruised through the remaining seven weeks of the season. Minnesota, you know, I don't I don't trust in Minnesota at all. However, I trust them in this game. I like their chances here in this game. Twenty five points.
I think that's right. Syracuse. Games are fun because you can look at the team Syracuse is playing and ask yourself, can they run the ball with any degree of comp evidence? Yes, I am taking them. And now Syracuse is without Tony White, their defensive Courtney, who I still think is really good. I just don't think they have, you know, a competent defensive front to stop the run. And now again we
were him. So Tony White gone, Syracuse being able to be run on that combination gimme Minnesota with a good amount of confidence.
Cheese It Bowl.
We got Florida State in this one, right, yes, Oklahoma Florida State at Florida State.
Said put the bunny back.
Another team with integrity that I trust going into bowl season. They're favored by seven and a half points in this cheese At Bowl they played in Orlando. Oklahoma is without starting tackles Anton Henderson, Juanya Morris, Jalen Redman, and running back Eric Gray. These are names that have opted out to prepare for the draft. Also, Theowese, the receiver only had nineteen catches this year. But it's just a note that he's entering the portal. Meanwhile, he's committed he's going
to Miszoo. That's right.
Yeah.
While on the Florida State side, we have Jammy Robinson and Jared Verse, two NFL prospects, who said, if it we're playing the cheese At Bowl. Oh yeah, If that doesn't signify effort and c are, I don't know what does Florida State thirty confidence points?
Cheese it or Goldfish? Where do you stand?
Goldfish?
I am a goldfish guy, yes, or goldfish guy? My goldfish guy. I'm going Florida State here. It's another similar question. Can the team run? Yes, they have a very good shot of beating Oklahoma. So I'm going with Trey Benson and the Knoles.
Here, Valero almobole, Texas minus five and a half, Washington, the Huskies coming in there at a mark of ten and two. I am on Washington. I allude to this earlier. I don't have a high degree of confidence. I might bump this up right now, just thirteen confidence points because Michael Pennix is the guy, right, Michael Pennix, he didn't have to come back, he is elected to, didn't have to play. He's going to do so anyway. So Michael Pennis playing Washington, I think with a lot to play
for here. Meanwhile, Texas gonna be without Jean Robinson, Roshawn Johnson, Demarvi and over shown all those guys opting out of the Alma Bowle.
I am gonna go with Washington as well here. Even though I like Texas and the steps they took forward on defense, I think they're going to struggle just into sometimes on offense, sometimes on defense. I think Washington's is just gonna have more juice that fits under your care.
That's right.
I'm going with you, dub.
All right, December thirty, if we got Duke's Mayo Bowl Maryland NC State. NC State is a one and a half point dog. Listen to this crap. Okay, okay, listen, listen to this freaking game. We've got Maryland who will be without Jacob Copeland and Dante Dimas, two wide receivers. Also Deontay Banks, the cornerback, declared for the draft and opted out. We've got Ahmad McCullough entering the portal. He
had forty five tackles for the Terrapins this season. And then on the NC State side, it's unclear who's playing quarterback.
Yeah, well it's not Devin Leary's.
Devin Leary, we know that, but it could be MJ. Morris, could be Ben Finley. We've got starting center Grant Gibson out with injury. Tim Beck, who we mentioned earlier, left his post as offensive coordinator. Pretty got the head coach at Coastal, Kurt Roper, remember him. He's going to be calling the plays so good in this game.
So a bit of a bit of a Bedlam.
That's William Bedford aka Billy Bendlam.
A little bit of Billy Bedlam here.
I think total toss up.
Yeah, think of on NC State twelve confidence points.
Yeah, I'm still I'm stilling on NC State because the best thing in this game, I still think is the front on that defense. So I'm going with NC State.
Here, Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Pitt They're back in the sun Bowl. Of course, great things are not happy in Pitts and the sun Ball, but they're back. Necessarily, Ucla also in the Sun Bowl. Play this one two pm, CBS sun Bowl Stadium, Friday, December the thirtieth. Uh, Elijah can Sy in this game due to injury. Keaton Slovis transferred. He's in portal Gonzo. Nick Patty Nate Yarnell are going to be playing quarterback here against UCLA. I like Ucla a lot in this game.
I like Ucla a good deal. It's the final opportunity for DTR too. Wow. NFL scouts Zach Charboney should be pretty good. Even though Pitt's defense is pretty good, I just don't think it's going to be able to consistently move the ball. So I'm going with UCLA here. Uh, it's you said, Tony the Tiger, Tony the Tiger. Sunball Yet is frosted Flakes? Your number one frosted.
Cereal probably frosted mini weeds.
Would I'm right there with you. I have him right there with you, all right?
Uh we agree? Tax Slayer Gator Bowl Notre Dame minus two squaring off against South Carolina. Michael mayor Isaiah Foski opted out, declared for the draft through Pine transferring. Looks like Tyler Buckner is going to get the nod.
I saw that he's been practicing right.
Back from the dead. Yeah, so a little bit of Tyler Buckner, a little bit of Evangeli, but it will definitely be a different look at quarterback for the Irish. On the South Carolina side, Marcus sadder Field the offensive coordinator excuse me left for since Nebraska not Cincinnati, too many coaches moving and shaken Jaheim Bell Austin Stagner at tight end have transferred out. Spencer Rattler will play in the bowl game. I'm on Notre Dame here. I like
Notre Dame deal in this matchup. I think this could be a fun game. But I think they're better and despite the fact that South Carolina really finished the season strong, I do think that Buckner coming back in perhaps with a bit of a different game plan, they might open it up a little bit more because I think it gives them more through the passing game. I just think it might be a different look for Notre Dame. They still can run the ball, the offensive line is still intact.
It hurts the nut of Michael Mahyer, but I'm interested to see if they can utilize some of those down field weapons and playoff of the running game. They should be able to run against South Carolina, which is I think probably the biggest reason why I like him here.
Man South Carolina down both Jahim Bell and Marshaun Lloyd. Who opted out or not opted out? Who is transferring right right? See transferring or opting out?
I believe transferring.
Yeah, that's scary. But I also watched Notre Dames offense the first couple of weeks, and that's also scary in its own way. I'm going South Carolina here, Notre Dame offense without its literal only weapon. I like estimate. Is that his name Audrick Estime? Yeah, he's good too, But without Michael Mayer. I'm going to South Carolina here. I
don't know why. I just the way that they're playing for Shane Beemer, the way that they played in the Bowl last year against North Carolina in that upset, getting Mayo dumped on him. I'm in on South Carolina here, and I'm not fully sure why. I'm just in on him.
The Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, it's Ohio, It's Wyoming. Get of this for Wyoming. Wyoming's team that likes to run the ball. They're without Titus Swen and Joey Brash, two running backs who are transferring, so they're super thin there. Dwayne McNeely and d Q James are going to miss the game due to injury as well at running back. Their leading receiver Joshua Cobbs, their defensive end whose name I cannot say, okay, and cornerbacks Keyante Glinton and Cam
Stone are all transferring. They are going to be without a lot of key contributors. Ohio, by the way, still going to be without Curtis Rourke, who's out for the season. CJ. Harris is going to be the guy. So I'm not going to play the sound again. A lot of bedlam potential here for this game. I think it could be borderline unwatchable. But I'm going to go Bobcats and I'm going to go thirty two confidence points because Wyoming has to deal with all sorts of issues at running back.
Ah don't care. Ohio's in the mac give me, give me Wyoming and the Cowboys.
That brings us to some of the new your six games. Yes, Capitol One Orange Bowl Tennessee Clemson. Clemson favored by six and a half points to play this one Hard Rocks Staium in Miami Gardens. Unclear if Jalen Hyde or Cedric Tilman are going to play on the Tennessee side.
Tilman's not playing. Tilman is not.
Playing, thank you. Clemson is going to be playing kid Clubnick because DJU is in the portal. I don't know if that makes them any better or worse, but worth noting. I am on Clemson. Here twenty eight confidence points for me on Clemson. I do not have confidence in a Tennessee team not being led by Hindon Hooker. So I think Tennessee's been the better team for most of the season. The fact that they have this injury now to their
best player on offense is very problematic to me. And I think Clemson will play hard because you've got the new quarterback, You've got guys that I think are going to want to show out. I don't think Clemson feels good about the way the season ended. I'm on Clemson here. I think they've got a lot to play for Tennessee.
When Rolling this year was my favorite show in college football. When rolling, you look at some of the Kentucky game, in the Alabama game without Hendon Hooker and with this defense, and the way the season ended, well think they destroyed Bandy. I understand that I'm on Clemson here. I'm going club level and defense.
New Year's Eve, We've got the trans Perfect Music City Bowl. This is absolutely a Billy Bedlam game. That's William Bedford AKA absolutely listen to this crap. It's Iowa, it's Kentucky for Iowa. Spencer Petris is hurt. Alex Padilla is transferring, which means the third stringer, Joey labis Labass zero pass attempts. He's going to be your starter. Also, Keegan Johnson the receiver, transferring, Justin Jacobs the big linebacker transferring, Gavin Williams another another
running back transferring. Out On the Kentucky side, they fired their offensive coordinator. Will Levis and Christopher Rodriguez have both declared for the NFL. And have opted out. Do not expect offense in.
This Liam Cohen back though, right coming back. I don't know if he's going back for this game, but yeah, he spent some time with the Rams. Was like, I'm going back to college.
Yeah, so I guess Kentucky, I guess I don't. This is going to be a very low scoring game. It's going to be ugly. Hide your eyes. The best thing I can say about this game is thankfully it's while you're drinking and not after the hangover. I'm a say, Kentucky three confidence points, no confidence.
I'm going Iowa defense. I'm going Spencer Petris wasn't very good this year. Alex Padia definitely wasn't very good this year. You mentioned justin Jacob's transferring. He got hurt like second week of the year. He hasn't played this year, but very good and Oregon fans I think have high hopes for him as somebody entering a linebacking core that needs a lot of help. Yes, what was Just give me the name one more time of the presumed third or fourth string or whoever's going to start at quarterback.
Joey Labas Labas.
Labbis Labis Labbis Labis. All I can tell you is somebody across this sport, probably at quarterback, is going to fall under the category of we had this guy the whole time, and he's way better than who we had playing. And I'm for whatever reason, there's something that strikes me about a random Iowa quarterback being pretty decent once in this game, and I'm going with that. I'm going with the.
Hotkeys, the Joey Labbis. Yeah, potential for a Lebottomy here.
Yeah, yeah, I think there's gonna be labor.
I don't know all stage Sugar Bowl, Alabama a three point favorite against K State. I play this one the Superdome, New Orleans noon Eastern New Year's Eve. Al Alabama has some names here, some names that we need to mention Jojo Earl, Treyshawn Holden, the receivers. Also Javian Cohen, defensive guard in the portal. I have not heard word on Bryce Young or Will Anderson. I can't imagine they're playing in this game. Right on the K State side, Malik
Knowles and cornerback ekup Boy do or injured. Did I say that wrong?
I have no idea, but you said it slowly and very specifically.
Yeah, I could have been very quickly injured in the Big twelve game, but it looks like they're going to be playing in the ball game. I'm on k State here, I'm on K State too. Two confidence points, two confidence points. Yeah, I don't put any any confidence points in these games.
But Alabama away from home against a Kansas State team. This is is this one of the biggest three five Kansas State games ever in the modern era.
Has to be.
Yeah, a New Year six game against Alabama. Absolutely, give me, give me here.
Let me know how to say the cornerbacks name. I screwed that up. That's a Globe Tomato situation. But no, no, you're my apologies. All right, two semifinal games here, we're coming down the stretch. We've only got six more games.
Let's do all right, let's do it.
Semifinal the Fiesta Ball. It's Michigan. It's TCU again. New Year's Eve, four pm ESPN. Blake Korum done for the season with a knee injury, but otherwise anybody who can play will play. It's a semifinal. Yes, Michigan favored by seven points against TCU, So you're picking a winner here. You're not picking against the spread. We will obviously break this game down a little bit more detail as we get closer to it. But are you on Michigan or you on TCU?
Head says Michigan. Heart says TCU. I am going Michigan because of defense, and I don't love JJ McCarthy in this spot, but I'm still going with Michigan here and Donovan Edwards being healthier with the defense, with the ability to adjust. We saw kind of close at halftime against Purdue and then just second half, Michigan is too strong for me.
Yeah, seven confidence points Michigan for me. Yep, I agree. Chick fil A Peach Bowl second semi final, it's Georgia minus six and a half. It is Ohio State second semi final match APM. On the Ohio State side, Jackson Smith and Jigman not gonna play, is done for the year. Also, the injury status is a bit uncertain for Trey Henderson and my and Williams on the Ohio State side. Again,
if they can play, they will. On the Georgia side, Lad McConkie got hurt in that SEC title game, as did Warren McClendon, their offensive lineman so unclear on their status again for the playoff game. I'm one are.
Getting healthier at receiver though as well, they are getting healthy.
I'm on Georgia here six confidence points.
I'm on Georgia as well. We'll talk about this game more as we get closer to it. But Georgia is not unbeatable. But they're unbeatable if you don't have your act fully together by this point of the season. And I don't believe Ohio State to be a team given, you know, relative to their own talent and relative to their own expectations. I don't think they have their act fully together. So I'm going.
Georgia Monday, January second, four games here to close this out in the relya Quest Bowl. It's Mississippi State and it's Illinois. So yeah, don't know if this game will happen. Don't know what you're here to talk about. It feels extremely weird to talk about. I do not know the status of this game. If this game goes off, if Zach Arnett does lead this team right against Illinois, we have to go to Mississippi State. We have to go Mississippi State. We have to root for Mississippi State here,
given all that they're going through the extenuity circumstances. It's a horrible spot for any coach, for any any group of players to be in. And that extends to the Illinois side as well, of course. But I'm just gonna root for Missippi State if this game happens.
Yeah, I imagine there will be some sort of internal vote and decision and conversation about playing in this game. Yeah, I'm just not gonna pick it. It just feels yeah, Yeah, I'm rooting for Mississippi State moving forward, given we will rule in Mississippi State circumstances. But yeah, it feels odd and who knows.
Cheez it Citrus Bole the second of two cheese It sponsored games. Yes, LSU minus eleven and a half against Purdue for LSU Kaishaan Boody coming back hey and will play in this game. The status of Jayden Daniels is unclear after his ankle injury in the SEC game, so we might see Garrett Usmeyer will find out. B j Ojlauri is entering the NFL Draft.
Smart on the LC Sorry.
On the Purdue side, we obviously had a coaching change. Brian Brahm is the interim coach.
That's true.
There is another. I'm on LSU here I I am thirty five points.
I'm on LSU as well.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. We have USC, we have Tulane. I'm on USC thirty four confidence points.
I am on Tulane because I don't know if Caleb Williams.
Is Cyrus Grissom aka Cyrus.
The Liners absolutely.
Wow.
I just don't trust kaya Williams is hamstring, And I am ready for if Kayleb Williams does not play. This is just I have no information. If Kayleb Williams does not play, and Miller Moss looks incredible versus an American defense, American Conference defense, I am ready for someone me to have the take because if you're a true takesman, it takes person. If you will tell yeah, it takes me. It's so good to say this player's great. But are they even the best player in the blank.
Up better than the starter? Yeah?
Yeah?
Is Caleb Williams even the best player on his own team?
Wow?
That answer is yes. The answer is yes. The answer is for resounding yes. But if Miller Moss is randomly eighteen for twenty two for three hundred and eighty four, yards and four touchdowns against Tulane. I will I will put on my shoes one at a time, I will pull up my pants one leg at a time, and I will ask that question on the show the next time we air USC.
Thirty four points for me. Although I do like Michael Pratt a lot, I like Tulane. Yeah, I don't know. I'm gonna go USC. But okay, there's a reason that US is only favored by a point and a half in this game.
I agree, hamstrings don't heal like ever Ty, you should know that by now.
Final game, Rose Bowl say the best for last, Utah three point favorite over Penn State. Parker Washington for Penn State, he was hurt. He opted for the NFL draft, Joey Pula also opting out for the NFL Draft. On the Utah side, tav And is done for the year. Dalton Kincaid also done for the year out injured. So I'm gonna go Penn State here, like I'm biased, right, I have to do that, but Penn State five confidence points to close this thing out.
I'm going Penn State as well. I'm going with the Penn State defense and Utah losing their clear best playmaker on offense. Although I don't have his name in front of me. They had like a third string running back this year. I'll pull it up or you can pull it up. Who absolutely shined the back half of the year, and I think this might be a coming out party for him. The problem is the Penn State defense is very good. Yeah. What was Jaquindin Jackson?
Quintin Jackson, Yeah, I'm just looking at it.
Was very good in sort of spot duty for Utah, and I think he kind of shined in the USC game at the end of the year, Pechtel Championship game. So that's something to watch in terms of the next steps for Utah's offense. But I'm willing Penn State here. Yeah, I like Penn State. I think just with Sean Clifford playing what should be his last game.
Barring anything, I expect it to be. Yeah, math Air on my part, I believe that he will play really well in his in his swan song, let's say in the Rose Bowl.
Do you know there's another extra nugget on that topic, Ty, And then we can we can leave the fine people. Oregon may have an eighth year tight end next year because of a bunch of medical that medical excuse, I say research red shirts and the COVID extra year of eligibility.
Does that means he messed twenty six?
Something like that? He was. He was one of the three players Oregon had who unfortunately suffered from the the Rabdo incident. Under Willie Taggart's strength and conditioning staff. His name is Cam McCormick. Had a key catch against Ohio State and that win. Last season, he was one of their top two or three tight ends and they lost a tight end to the transfer portal. This year they might have I think he has the option. I think it has been approved an eighth year next year, which
is two full generations. It's pretty great.
With that being said, that is our confidence pool breakdown.
Well, we told you today's flight would be special.
It was special.
It was.
It was special. Sprinkled in a little cage, little John Malkovich, a little billy bedlam. Yeah, and obviously some points here on all things college football bowls. Playwinter Wonders dot com is where you can go if you have yet to sign up, tell your friends, tell your family. Play Winter Wonders dot com all or welcome. Just come on by go to that url. Give us your email, we'll send you the instructions on how to join the pool. It's free, it's easy, it's fun. A lot of people out there
run their own bullpools, their own confidence pools. It's join ours, join ours all well. Come on, come on in Playwinter Wonders dot com. Last, but certainly not least, saliverblelive dot com. Come on out and see us in LA.
I agree, it's going to be a great, great show Soliverbolive dot com, especially if you anticipate your team making it.
Come out to La, come on out, bye, come on best Dan. This has been a long show. We covered a lot of ground. We covered subjects heavy and light. We appreciate everybody's support here, not just on this show, but in hanging with us through this episode. It's always fun to talk about bulls. I wish we had better news at the top, but such as life hope everybody out there is doing well. We would encourage you. If you have not already, make sure you hit subscribe, come
on out, listen to all of our episodes. It's always a pleasure here to be with you, Dan, and to be with a verbollerh hood. As we talked through all things college football.
Do you know what I'm angry about, Ty, Because everything you said was completely true and correct and poignant. We didn't play our December to Remember song at all thus far.
This month, Month is young, My friend.
Month is young. All right.
That's all I have for that guy over there, my good friend Dan Rubenstein, for myself, Ti hille Brand. Thank you for bearing with us, Thanks for stopping on by. We will talk to you all very soon. In the meantime, stakes out peace,