¶ Intro
Welcome to the solid verbal ull.
That for me. I'm a man, I'm for I've heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy. You want to be happy for a day?
Edith Steak, is that woof?
Woof?
And then and tie.
Dan Robinstein. It is the last week of the regular season. We did a part one for Rivalry Week back on Tuesday. We've got a part two coming everybody's way right now, Rivalry Week Part dua, thank you, Thanksgiving in the good old us of a a busy week in the forballer hood, my good friend, welcome back to the show.
How are you great to be here? I'm doing great. I looked at the document because we did part one for all of the pre Saturday action. I looked at part two, which is just Saturday, and I just said to myself, too many bangers, too many games, too much greatness on the line, too much emotion. How do we do this all in one show? Well, friends, I'm here to tell you we're gonna try. We are absolutely gonna try. Welcome back, Welcome one, Welcome all, hit follow, hit subscribe
if you have yet to do so. Hopefully, if you are on the go, out and about on the way to grandmother's house for Thanksgiving, wherever it is you may be.
Thank you for downloading, for supporting. We will do our part over the next hour or so to keep you entertained, to get you up to date with everything going on in and around the world of college football. If you're curious about what's going to happen on the Thursday and Friday games, if you are listening to this episode in advance of those, go back and listen to the Tuesday episode.
That's when we cover them. On today's episode, we're going to cover everything that's going to transpire on Saturday, some of the scenarios that could play out depending on how things break down. Do our best to dive into all of that and much much more. But make sure you hit follow, make sure you hit subscribe if you are amongst the people this Thanksgiving, depending on when you're listening to this.
I like that you said if you're amongst the people, as if this show is exclusively framed and directed at aristocrats, of course, of course, if you're with the people.
If you are out with the people, let them know about the show so that we can continue to grow the verboler hood. Last, but certainly not least playruntheboard dot com.
It's gonna be a big in this week.
It is sixteen rivalry games, all of which have a cool nickname or a cool trophy.
Play rundboard dot com.
We'll give you more intel on how to get in on that game. We have not determined what the prize is going to be yet. Yeah, and it was actually kind of fun last week to just sort of throw random thoughts out there and then weave them together in the end. So I have taken on that burden as you are thinking up Dan, what would make sense to use as a prize in week fourteen. Just throw the word out. I will find a way to weave them together in the end. We'll give out a gift card or something fun.
You send me a link to something called an adult swing and I did not. I did not say that. My computer is telling me that it is is a very specific kind of recreational device. I don't know what kind of STU appropriate you're googling over there in Chicago. But Joyce, I have no idea what that. I did not know where that came from. I did not send that to you.
My mother is listening.
Yeah, where are we going? Where are we going, So we have to come up with the prize as we're going. You know that makes sense in alignment with our conversation.
It's our big pickup game. Yeah, yeah, we'll come up with We'll come up with some word association here. The deeper we get into this thing, Dan, it is rivalry week this week, which does mean only one thing. I'm gonna let you do the honors. If you are ever so inclined.
Ty, you have got to throw the records out, Dom out the window, dow them out the window, get them out of here.
More and more coaches every year, every year now some of these coach pressers that we see in the build up to Rivalry Week, coaches start talking about, look, you gotta throw the record.
You just got to throw the records out. Was it Jeff Brahm? This year somebody said everybody.
Somebody sent me a tweet saying, look, you just got to throw the records out in this rivalry?
Yeah you do. Who's Northampton High's rival? The Catasauqua Rough Riders. I'll get out of here. Rough got calbas A Girl High, the Chargers. Oh my god, I think that's where Clay Matthews went yeah, I believe you know who went to my high school. Who's that? Nobody? Nobody, not even the famed early two thousands alt rock group Incubis. No.
No, we had Jim Druckey Miller, we had Brian Schneider, we had Denny Oncott's back in the day, but otherwise we had no.
No, we had we had Tapanga from Boy Meets World and Jesse Spano from Saved by the Bell and Jim Rome. No, we don't have anybody of merit and me and used.
So look, throw out the records. It is rivalry week. We're gonna go through all of these and much much
¶ Latest CFP Rankings & News
more before we do, though, just because we are interested in being completists, not gonna yell. We have new college football playoff rankings. We talked about the for Baller top twelve on the last episode. Here is the actual top twelve per the powers that be, if that's something you care about, all right, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas one, two, three, Penn State still holding on at four.
Over Notre Dame.
Notre Dame hanging on over number six, Miami number seven, eight, nine are Georgia, Tennessee and SMU cracking the top ten.
Good for them.
Yes, Tennessee drops or excuse me, Indiana drops below Tennessee and below SMU to number ten, Boise at number eleven, Clemson clet'son up five now to number twelve. The first four out per this ranking system are number thirteen Alabama, number fourteen, Old Miss number fifteen in South Carolina, number sixteen, Arizona State. Then and your reaction to this, do we gloss over it?
Do we move on?
Obviously this is going to get a little bit weird after this weekend, will it not?
Oh, it will get weird. But this is basically our moment to say, through what are we at through thirteen weeks? Yeah, of data points, this is where the committee has landed, and so we typically have said, you know, most famously like when TCU was in the top four a decade ago and they destroy Kansas and do nothing to say that they're not a top four team, but they get jumped over, they get leapt over whatever by Ohio State that year. I believe that you're like, well, what did
this team do that was so bad? In the case of Clemson at twelve, it's particularly interesting because they have a high profile opponent, they have an opportunity to cement themselves as a top twelve team by that game in Clemson, right, yep, that's correct, by beating a headline rival, and it at least sets up the possibility that the ACC is going to get a couple teams in, which has been a question with the ACC and the Big twelve ACC More, I would argue with, you know, now three ACC teams
in the top twelve heading into the final week. So that's interesting to me. And so yeah, just in all of these it sets up the idea with Boise State. Now we still have conference championship weekend, of course, but with Boise State where they are, with SMU where they are, with Tennessee where they are, and most of these teams where they are that are you know, angling for an at large bid that this is a significant statement by
the committee heading into rivalry weekend. They're like, Okay, this is how we view this team after you know, eleven games, and that should mean probably more than a single data point, but we'll.
See, we'll see. The Other thing that I think is of interest if you look at this, Arizona State is at sixteen. Also, yes, interesting, it is the highest ranked Big twelve team per this ranking set. How that changes by beating Arizona. I don't know if it changes much by beating Arizona. Arizona's pretty bad. There could be teams in front of ASU that lose that essentially helped to move up their standing within this ranking. The Big twelve
is in really interesting territory. I think you're probably looking at a win in a conference championship game that would move Arizona State up a little bit more and would insulate them perhaps from somebody like a two lane.
ASU at sixteen. It's Iowa State at eighteen. So either way, if if the Big Twelve championship ends with Iowa State beating Arizona State, somebody who felt pretty damn good about being in this twelve team field is being booted. Yeah.
And furthermore, TWU Lane is at seventeen in the rankings. And so the place going with this is the way that the rules are set up. Your only guaranteed spots are for the top five ranked conference champions right by it does not specify that they have to be Power Conference right victors.
So there is at least a.
Slim chance, and I don't think it's likely, but there is a slim chance that a team like al Tulane could sneak in ahead of a Big twelve champion depending on how things go this weekend, right, I mean a lot can go wrong, a lot ca and go hay wire. The Big twelve is already kind of in this blender, but just something to kind of file away in the back of your mind. Tulane sitting there at nine and two, they are only two losses to Power Conference opponents. They've
been playing pretty well. There's a real chance here if things really get hay wire this weekend, if Tulane goes on to beat Army for that American title, that they could end up sniping that final spot.
We'll see. I'm also I was curious as for Texas A and M's rank because Texas A and M losing and quadruple overtime I'm on the road to Auburn. They sit at twenty. Yeah, and so now we talk about the potential, albeit a low chance, but a chance, a potential leapfrog situation of Texas A and M at home, beating Texas and beating Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and the SEC potentially not getting a first round by if Boise is taking care of business and finishes the
season at twelve and one. Yep, and keep they keep moving up with you know, teams ahead of them losing whatever. I guess that that would well, that's what would stand in the SEC's way of getting that by right, it's wild.
Man, I tell you there there are some real interesting scenarios here.
Because I don't think it'll be two lane standing in their way. Probably not.
It probably won't. We have gotten to the point now, though, where there are a limited number of games that can give you that upward mobility and a limited number of teams that actually have upward mobility.
Given what's left.
Obviously, if you're not playing a conference championship game, you got to show out this weekend. The other thing that I did want to point out Dan before we move on, the coaching carousel is starting to spin now, and North Carolina has made.
The move on Mac Brown.
Mac Brown, notably, a couple of weeks ago, said he wasn't going anywhere. This followed reports from earlier in the season after that James Madison game where he kind of offered to resign if it would be helpful, and then everybody had his back. Mac didn't have any imminent plans to walk away. North Carolina has other ideas. North Carolina is going to move on from Mac Brown. He's going to coach this weekend against NC State. It's unclear right now if he's going to be in the bowl game
or not. I would just call this out simply because right now North Carolina is the top Power job on the board, and I wonder if that's the reason they made the move, if they are kind of the darling job that is available right now at the Power five ranks, Power four.
Ranks, right, and it's the only one right. I believe he won, So it's both. It's also the worst available Power Conference job available. It's possible, Yeah, yeah, it's possible.
But the fact that they are on the board early trying to court some others who might be interested, I think is intriguing and puts UNC in a spot that I can't ever remember them being in. We'll see what they decide to do. But if you are either a lower level Power whatever coach looking to move up, if you're a G five looking to move up, if you're a hot coordinator looking to move up, UNC is out there.
UNC is the name on the board right now. That is courting any and all who are interested, So we'll see which direction they end up going.
Yeah, I saw Bruce mentioned John Summral in his first year at Tulane, Jamie Chadwell who's been pretty successful at Liberty now after his coastal time. Glenn Schuman is going to come up in these jobs because of how many games he has won as an assistant and coordinator. Yeah, Arthur Smith came up because he's a North Carolina guy and weirdly enough, they're like and his dad is super loaded as a fed X. Yeah, there's a lot interesting there. It's a very good job. It is a good job.
¶ Michigan vs Ohio State Preview
Let's get to rivalry week though, are you ready ready? Let's do it?
Yah, time they need the week.
I didn't want to short change any games this week because we've got so many great rivalries. We are still going to do our big games at the top. We're going to do our part to rattle off all the big name rivalries, the ones with the cool trophies, all the stuff that you actually care about. So if we do a little bit more rapid fire when we get to Quad Fathers in that segment, forgive us. We want to make sure we give every rivalry it's due this week. If you're cool with that, Dan Ruis.
Yes, of course we do need to start though with the one they call the game. Yeah, oh my gosh, of course the game.
Maybe the game isn't quite as big of a game in terms of national relevance as it was a year ago, but the game is still the game. It's at high noon, it's on Fox.
It is Michigan at Ohio State, Ohio State.
Playing another noon game.
This is when they play there.
Of course they are Ohio State favored by twenty one at home. And look, did you see what Ryan Day had to say about this game?
I think he basically said, losing this game has been the worst experience of his life, short of like things happening with his family, So short.
Of losing his father, he says, losing this game has been the worst thing that has happened to him and his family. Yes, which seems like a lot personally, seems like a lot.
But this is Michigan, Ohio State. Whether or not that is a good thing to have in our world. That you are devastated to the point of emotional destruction annually over this game. Whether you're a fan of coach, a player, or whatever. That's the reality. I don't know.
I want to know from Ohio State people, does it make you feel better to hear him say that or does it make you wonder if the coach has a screw loose?
Okay, that's all. I think both can be sort of true. I don't think anybody doubts. I don't think any like rational college football fan feels as if their coach is not taking an incredibly huge, storied rivalry seriously and personally. So I don't know how much better it makes you feel. The only thing that makes you feel better is winning.
To that end, Michigan has won the last three they have, as you might expect, effectively driven Ohio State Ryan Day a little bit crazy, and to an extent, this entire offseason was about loading up to beat Michigan right, even if Ohio State bombs out of the playoffs, which who knows, depends on their pathway through this season. On some level, is going to be judged by did beat Michigan? Did break the stream right? And they are a healthy favorite
to do that. So I guess from the Michigan side, given where they have been this season, some of the obvious flaws that this team has that we know about at this point, is the best case scenario look ahead spot for Ohio State with a likely game against Oregon on deck next week.
I mean, you're just not living in reality to think that in any capacity Ohio State's looking past Michigan.
I don't think they are. I think that is foolish to assume as much. I am trying to craft the universe in which Michigan actually has a chance to win this game. Oh, sure, that was what I came up with. There's a look ahead spot. The defense muddies it up, they keep it close, basically due to Ohio State when Nebraska did to Ohio State the week before the Penn State game.
Sure take advantage of a line that is beat up and has shuffled bodies around, that has held up I think in past blocking and past protection.
Enormous stretch to me, Dan, Okay, I'm not saying I buy this.
I am trying.
Is there another universe that you can craft that gives Michigan the over Ohio State for the forty Yeah?
I mean it's just a Will must Champ game, that's all it is. I mean, the it's very easy to not see happening, but it's very easy to sort of imagine how it happens. And let's just turnovers and special teams and freak plays. And you know, Davis Warren hasn't been all that good of a quarterback for a very disappointing passing attack, but he hits a screen that you know, Mullings or whoever take for eighty three yards randomly. That's
uncharacteristic of Ohio State's defense. But this is college football. Freak plays happened, freak results, you know, crazy close games happen. Bad weather affects things. It's going to be freezing across the Midwest, below freezing across the Midwest. I don't know how that affects things. Likely not these teams practicing this and training this all year long. But yeah, you just it's your game simmed one hundred times. This thing only happens three times out of one hundred.
I'm just not sure where the points are coming from for Michigan. Sure, I feel like a broken record. I've said that time and again here against better teams. The offense at this point is pretty telegraphed, and they are not the dominant ground team. That they've been over the last couple of seasons, and you know, you could say, okay, well, Indiana did get something going on the ground against Ohio State, which is true to an extent.
That's true.
But Indiana also had a deep passing game, and I think the Buck guys are far more interested in that side of their offense. That's why they took it away. They were content to let them run runtil they're blue in the face. Didn't match right, Just don't beat us deep with the pass, don't inch your way back in on the back of Curtis work. I don't know where the points coming from from Michigan. It seems like an entirely different situation. I think Ohio State clearly far and
away as a better team. I think if they can, they're going to run it up, and I think they might have the chance. So I've got this one at thirty five thirteen, Buck guys, I've got a big win. I've got a close cover. I think they break the streak here, start a new one on their own. Thirty five thirteens. My final forty five to thirteen.
Wow, I think it's limb from limb. I think you have exercise demons you leave in starters, even though Ohio State will have played a bunch of weeks in a row and a bunch of big games in a row starting with last week and in Indiana, And I don't think there's real hangover just because there's no inspiration. You don't need to get up extra early. You don't need to pinch yourself to get excited for Ohio State Michigan.
So yes, exercise demons. It's a Herbrook style again again because it's in Columbus and so yeah, I short of Michigan overwhelming Ohio State's offensive line, which maybe they will at times, maybe they'll get to Will Howard a little bit, claps and pockets with those defensive linemen, they're good on the edge. Michigan did score fifty without any sort of consistent downfield passing last week against Northwestern, So that's a skill that you know, could they score thirty against Ohio State.
I don't see it happening, But it's a skill to score fifty without a downfield passing attack.
Look, there is a school of thought that Michigan could just keep doing what it's done the last three years. Sure that now, I don't think their line is as good. I don't think, as they said, they're a dominant ground team as they have been.
Noel Johnson like, yeah, there's just.
But there's there's a school of thought and I've seen it discussed online. Don't subscribe to this that Michigan like, why why change it if it ain't broke, Just try and do the same thing that they have done and beat their brains in make the game muddy. It would have to be a close win, but just do that again, improve, make Ohio State prove that they can stop it this year.
Yeah, I mean they have to get off the field on third or fourth and short always like Nebraska was able to do. Like when Ohio State has had a slowdown on offense, they haven't been able to convert some of those higher leverage moments early on in games. Anyway, Yeah, that's what it would take. It would take Michigan winning
seventeen thirteen, twenty to seventeen something. It's just wild that, you know, there's maybe out of nowhere, there's crazy gusts of wind sustained wins that completely slow down Ohio State through the air. Again, this is how you have to construct it, because otherwise, if it's just a straight up back and forth. It favors Ohio State immensely forty five to thirteen.
I'm I'm not going to dive into wild hypotheticals with this one. Just know there are some wild hypotheticals if Ohio State were to lose here.
Okay, if in the event that Ohio State loses, Penn State is in the conference championship game.
Penn State's of the Conference championship game, Ohio State drops in the polls, I think they would have to be slotted somewhere in front of Indiana starts to question whether Indiana gets in, starts like it.
It sets off a whole.
Chain reaction of other questions, not the least of which is what happens to Ryan Day after the season?
Okay, what happens to Ryan Day. It's not a great loss. If Ohio State lose now Michigan in terms of where Michigan has been here.
No, I'm just I don't want to go there, because this is this is inventing stuff out of thin air. But just know that there are a whole other series, a whole other universe of weird possibilities that will show its ugly face should Ohio State lose this one, but we throw out the records in the rivalry. I'm taking this game kind of in a vacuum, and I'm not trying to assume too much one way or another other than what we have seen this season, which is Michigan
on offense is no boyno. So we'll see yep three
¶ Arizona State vs Arizona Preview
thirty on Fox Territorial Cup Dan Yes, Arizona playing host to nine and two Arizona State. Arizona State trying to get to ten and two. They are a eight point five point favorite. This is a big game for ASU, to say the least. Arizona one by thirty six a year ago. They've actually won the last two. This season, Arizona has been the second worst FBS team against the spread,
so they have not been good at covering at all. ASU, though has almost exclusively played in one score games against teams from power conferences, they have not been out there separating themselves in any kind of impressive capacity. So feels like something's got to give here. Arizona very bad against the spread. Arizona State not necessarily the team you want to rely on when the point spread is greater than a touchdown.
And Arizona State coming off of an enormous, enormous, emotional last second whatever you want to call the Kenny Dillingham on field freak out, horrible clock management, crowd rushes the field twice moment. I'm going to go ASU here same.
Arizona is capital B bad, and I wonder how much they've got left in the tank at this point.
They've had no tank this year, They've had no tank.
They're really limited on offense with how they can beat you. You know, it's it's noa fafita, It's team Mac.
It's team Mac orbust. Yeah, and even that has not been a winning formula. It's been winning for everybody being able to ooh and ah over team axibility, but hasn't translated to the.
Rud blocking has not been good for Arizona either. It's just been very very one dimensional.
Yeah.
I can see a scenario in which Arizona State goes limb from WIM and beats them by forty. I am not banking on that. I'm going to take a much more responsible approach here and say it's something like thirty one to twenty somewhere in that neighborhood. I think ASU gets the road win there is that question about what they've got left given somewhat down potential. But I just feel like they are playing with a full head of
steam right now. And outside of maybe Kansas, Arizona State's probably the team in the Big twelve that nobody wants to play.
Yeah, I have thirty five seventeen as it's not like ASU is getting on a plane. This isn't Notre Dame USC or Oregon Washington where you're getting on a plane to play your arrival. I believe Oregon Washington would be getting on a plane, but certainly Notre Dame US. So you've taken buses two hours down the road, so this isn't crazy in terms of travel. Even if there's a letdown effect, you get right up because it's a territorial cup and ASU smells blood in the water. Kenny Dillingham
rightfully so is absolutely ruthless. And this is a big recruiting spot, of course, and there's absolutely blood in the water with Arizona as one of this year's elite losers. So I have ASU.
Big also at three point thirty. This one on ABC
¶ Auburn vs Alabama Preview
this year, not CBS. Yeah, it's taken a little bit of getting used to not gonna lie. It is Auburn at five and six, It is Alabama at eight and three. Bama is an eleven and a half point favorite in the Iron Bowl.
This game.
More often than not, more often than not, has.
Very weird energy.
Yeah, weird things that have happened with respect to this game. Now, Bama's won the last four Since twenty eighteen, this game has alternated between being a blowout and being a close Alabama win. Yeah, last year it was twenty seven to twenty four Alabama. So if the pattern holds, then we'd be looking at a blowout this year. The point spread is saying blowout. The pointspread at eleven and a half is saying double digits.
What is Dan Rubinstein saying? I have Alabama covering this and I went back and forth. I don't think they'd cover whatever it would be on the road eight nine points against Auburn, but there is something and look Auburn players as exhausted as they are after last week's quadruple overtime win. It's also kind of a proof of concept that Auburn can finish and hang with a perceived superior team.
So I'm not discounting that. I just think an on Alabama as evidenced against I guess it was Drew Pine missoo or against LSU, and on Alabama, if they're able to game plan something that isn't just Jalen Milroe Jalen Milroe left and right, that they can put up points, that they can get stops that Peyton Thorn, for as fun as some of his bigger throws this year have been, is still pretty turnover prone and on the road in
the Iron Bowl. Even with Peyton Thorn nearly beating Alabama last year, I just think if Alabama is kind of on, they win this game by twenty. If they're fully off once again and they are down on themselves and Kaylen de Boor is not able to get this team up after last week's lost to Oklahoma, that says more about Kaylen de Boor. But what's this dude's record in November. What's this dude's track record and getting teams up for really huge rivalry games late in the season. Man, it's
really good. I could not disagree with you more on this pick. Auburn's my home dog.
Of the wink Wow, the Yokos home dog of the week. I'm I'm not going to act like I'm crazy about Auburn.
Okay, they were good last week. Yeah.
The main thing for me is that Auburn's got a solid defense and Alabama's offense feels.
Very telegraphed at times.
Yeah, it's very Jalen Milroe centric. That's part of why we liked Oklahoma last week, was it not? It is good defense against an offense that's entirely dependent on one player. I think Auburn can ugly it up. I think they can do enough on offense to keep it within striking distance. I think again, this is something like twenty seven to twenty four Alabama. I would not be surprised to Auburn won this game out right. This just feels to me like a good spot for Auburn. They want they absolutely
want to get Bull eligible. They need this one to get Bull eligible. It's on the road at Tuscalosa, which is not an easy place to play by any stretch. But this rivalry tends to be real weird.
I don't know.
I see a close game here. I will happily take eleven and a half points.
They scored seven points against Vanderbilt like three weeks ago.
I know, I know, it doesn't always need to make sense though in the Iron.
Bowl, and getting up for Vandy is different than getting up for Alabama. I am still track record with. If you have the quarterback advantage, which I think Alabama still does, sure, if you have the head coaching advantage, which to me Alabama still does. You're playing at home, and while the Auburn defense has gotten to be at times scary good and love Jarquez Hunter, if you have a quarterback who is to this extent a wild card with turnovers, I can't get on board. I get it.
I understand the logic.
I'm either going to be crazy right or crazy wrong, with almost nothing in between. This is just a much.
More flawed Alabama team than we are used to. I agree, and it is somewhat telegraphed.
It is.
It is highly dependent on Jalen Milroe to go out there and make a play. And if we know it, certainly a team like Auburn with a good defense also knows it. Agree, they've seen all the tape now they know I don't know. Twenty seven to twenty four Alabama, all right, we disagree, but stay in the three point
¶ Notre Dame vs USC Preview
thirty block. They call it the Battle for the Jewels. Shalela.
It's on CBS.
Still taking some time to get used to that. Notre Dame ten and one minus seven and a half points on the road at USC. USC sitting at six and five Notre Dame one by twenty eight last year. This year, it's winning in the new playoff format. We just talked about the rankings earlier. Their fifth A win gets them a home playoff game in all likelihood. It depends on seeding, depends where things shake out, probably as a five to six seventh seed somewhere in that neighborhood they end up
hosting a playoff game. Depends where you look, depends on your projections. Some have them against SMU, Others have them against Boise. I've seen some against Tennessee. It varies pretty widely right now because we just are grasping. But we will see what happens if and when they end up winning this game. But they got to win this one first.
Da Oh great.
I've been surprised at your level of confidence regarding Notre Dame in this matchup. You seem to be fully sold on Notre Dame beating USC because you're fully out on SC You've sold on c stock.
Yes, and no, I took a more ten thousand foot view of Notre Dame in their schedule. True road games have they played this year? Like two late three A and M and Georgia Tech. I want to.
Say Georgia Tech was in Atlanta in Atlanta, Okay, Yeah, so they played Purdue, they played obviously then and M game to start the year. They've played other games away from home that neutral site. But in terms of true road games, you've only been two, right.
And how many let's call it decent quarterbacks have they faced this year? One in Tyler Shock probably, Yeah. I mean Notre Dame schedule is benched Mac benched and bad Mac decent. Tyler Shock not good at Stanford back up at Georgia Tech. That was Pyron, right, that's his name. Navy not a thrower, Florida State not good, Virginia not good. Army not a thrower, right. I just don't know. I think it's weird to go this far into the season, and maybe people would argue like this is Notre Dame.
Every year, join a conference, cowards, blah blah blah. But we just don't have a con Notre Dame down their best corner defense irrefutably strong. They're performing as a good defense should against this schedule. USC has been winning in every fourth quarter, right. I saw the stat today that they're one of five or six teams to have won in every fourth quarter, and they've lost five games and the other five or six teams have combined to lose bot. Yeah,
they've led every fourth quarter. They've led every fourth quarter. Something ridiculous. Yeah. USC is nothing if not a competitive weekly team who is prone to gacking away games at the end, better at home games in LA. I'm taking points here, No, I am taking points here. If there's something USC gives up, it's big passes. If there's something Notre Dame doesn't do, it's generate, consistent, successful downfield passes.
Now Ryle Leonard's gotten better, they've become a more efficient complete offense, but there's not a consistent deep threat element to this offense. And maybe that's just because they haven't had to do it, because they just stomp everybody. I think USC loses this game. The score of the spread once again is seven, seven and a half. I got it at Yeah. I think it's a close loss for SC. It's something in the range of twenty seven to twenty three,
because that's kind of SCSMO. This kind they'll be winning twenty three to twenty with eight and a half minutes left, give up a touchdown and Mayova throws a backbreaking pick or something in the end zone late. I only managed nineteen against UCLA last week, by the way.
I started from that point. Yeah, I started from that point, and I tried to convince myself. Otherwise, I try to convince myself because you know, my inclination will be to go points here, absolutely no points here. Rivalry, game, crive and cross country a lot riding on at USC, if nothing more. Has been plucky against some better teams on their schedule, almost beat Pen State. They probably should have beaten Penn State, right, So that was my starting point.
I just come down on really liking the matchup for Notre Dame, okay, because I think they're much more physical in the trenches on both sides, and I think Riley Leonard kind of breaks what USC wants to do on defense, which is blitz the crap out of you. That's what they've done all year. They blitz the crap out of you. And the irony here is that though they're blitzing a lot.
Their sack rates, their pressure rates are very low, which is basically a long way of saying that in this case, if you're over committee against a mobile quarterback, that's not something that generally works. I have not seen that generally work in college football. I am not a defensive coordinator. It seems like a bad formula to me. Riley Leonard is that mobile quarterback. Riley Leonard is obviously the focal point of this offense. Riley Leonard is also very good
at avoiding sacks in his own right. His sack avoidance, I've said this a million times, very very good. He's good at avoiding the sacks. He just knows where pressure's coming from. Not always the best quarterback out there, but he's good at not getting taken down. True, I would be a lot more worried about this if it were Miller Moss.
Yeah, that's where I went back and forth. See that the numbers and the competitive nature of these USC games have not necessarily been on the back of Jade Mayava. That's exactly right.
If it were Miller Moss, I think I would be with you and I would go points. But though I like Jade Mayava, and the mobility that he brings. He is still relatively green, and I just think Notre Dame is going to dare him to throw into the defense, and I think that's where we see some mistakes.
So I think this is a good game.
I don't think this is a runaway trained by any stretch, and I think we're going to learn something a lot, hopefully about Notre Dame and what they've got in the tank against a better opponent. This is the best opponent they've played in a while. Thirty one seventeen is my final for Notre Dame. I think they pull away late again. I think they win this game the way they've been winning games, which is they're going to grind you down.
They're going to make you make decisions against Briley Leonard, who is mobile, who they can put on the run, who they can do RPO stuff with. I think he will put this linebacking corps, especially in a bit of a bind, and it is that matchup that eventually ends up working for Notre Dame. Thirty one seventeen, Okay, we disagree, and everything you said is totally reasonable and for me to pick against a team that has an advantage on neither line nor do they have an advantage at quarterback.
They're real big advantage is or not big advantage, but they seem like that their depth of skill is at least a little bit. It might have a higher ceiling given that Lincoln Riley has that background offensively, and look, Mike Denbrock is very good obviously, sure, but that would be the advantage that those big offensive plays, if everything is working out for both teams, might have an advantage or might it might be USC's advantage. But no, I
think everything you said is sound. This is sort of like a little bit of hoping to watch Notre Dame play a competitive game rather than truly feeling great about USC actually winning a game like this.
Again, if it were Miller Moss. If it were Miller Moss, I would feel much differently the fact that it's Jade Mayava.
I Look, it might be Miller Moss in the second quarter. I don't know, Yeah knows. I think it might be done.
Yeah, seven point thirty on ABC. This is kind of
¶ Texas vs Texas A&M Preview
a big another weekend. Texas ten to one Texas A and M eight and three Texas is a five point road favorite. It goes without saying that this is an enormous game. This will be an enormous game if the stakes weren't already so high. But the way things have gone now in the SEC, the winner of this game is playing Georgia for the SEC title. It's a big deal. Kyle Field's gonna be rocking. Five points?
Is a spread?
Dan? Yeah, how do.
You feel about that? I'm taking A and M. I don't love it. I'm going with the home team with not the superior defense, but what can be an excellent defense in an environment that will be bloodthirsty.
Let me ask you this because I have seen this question pop up a fair amount recently because of the playoff stuff, and I don't think we've really addressed it here. Have we been giving Texas too much benefit of the doubt? You know, because a lot of the arguments, Yeah, a lot of the arguments that people have made about strength of schedule. I'm not saying it's Notre Dame. I'm not
saying it's Penn State. I'm not saying it's Indiana, right, But strength of schedule on the Texas side has been something that has kind of come up here, and there is Texas getting too much benefit of the doubt?
Right now, I think they're getting too much offensive benefit of the doubt. If anything, that I don't know if it's a rankings benefit of the doubt, because they're still winning games. And while you can question the strength of their schedule, and that's fine, and the quarterbacks who played in those games, that's fine, But I don't have a convincing argument to put a different team above Texas in
this moment. So I'll say, for the sake of predicting games for prognostication, yeah, maybe we are overrating Texas's ability to take care of business against good teams because I haven't seen it this year, right, It's just a mystery. So in this situation, I'm taking Texas A and M because they're at home, bloodthirsty crowd, huge emotional spot, quin yours. Beat up Texas on the road has not been lights out on offense this year, and I'm just going to
wager as as much as they just don't. I'm not enamored with this beat up Texas A and M offense, but I think they can pull this out based on where Texas is a where really where they haven't been. I just think it's a tough situational spot for Texas being a road favorite, where just whatever two to three weeks ago against Arkansas they struggled to separate on the road. That I just, I don't know. I'm not enamored with Texas on offense this year in the way that I
thought i'd be. So I'm gonna go A and M bouncing back from a big emotional loss, because again, you don't need to figure out how to muster the emotion and will to get up for the return of Texas against A and M. So I wing A and M outright to win this game twenty four to twenty outright outright at home. Man, they're my home dog of the week, by the way, how about that?
Oh okay, the Yakos home dog of the week. I want to watch the A and offense is just off for Texas.
I don't know.
Yeah, I want to watch the A and M fraught against the Texas offensive line. Yeah, in particular, we saw what Georgia did to the Texas offensive line.
Is A and M good enough to replicate that?
They're certainly good enough to try, and I think they should because you mentioned Quinn Ewers is banged up. He's out there on a bum ankle. This is an offense that, to your point, yes, sort of struggled to separate, especially in the road. We've just gotten done talking about it. Frankly, we talked about it on Tuesday. Where is this next gear for the Texas offense? Does it have a next gear?
It feels like a Sark offense should be a little bit better than this with all the artillery they've gotten.
Why is it now?
I do question if Marcel Reid has the juice.
To beat Texas. I like a question that too.
I like Marcel Reid. Does he have enough juice to beat this Texas defense?
I don't know.
I do love the spot for A and M, though, and I also have them outright. I've got it twenty six twenty three, A, I love that from you. I've got it twenty six twenty three. I probably should have made it my home dog as well, but I was enamored with that Auburn pick. This would be an incredible, incredible victory for A and M. This would throw a lot into question with regard to the playoff, and part
of me is sort of enamored with that storyline. It may have influenced my pick here a little bit, but bear in mind they are restarting this rivalry for the first time since twenty eleven, way back when Mac Brown knocked off Mike Sherman twenty seven to twenty five.
In validate McCoy, Case McCoy. So it is just it has.
Been so long since we had this game. I find it hard to believe that any one team is going to blow out the other. So I'm taking points and I'm taking a and m out right.
Oh man, we agree, by the way, that was case McCoy sixteen of twenty seven four point one yards per attempt taking down Ryan Tannehill, who threw three picks four point six yards per attempt. Malcolm Brown on the ground for Texas, Ben Molina on the ground for Texas, A and m former Angels catcher Ben Molina or Ben Molina one of the Molina brothers. Yeah, yeah, took a stab at running the ball twenty five times in a rivalry game. Markus Goodwin out wide with Jackson Shipley for Texas. Yeah.
When I looked at Texas's schedule again, through no fault of their own, what have we seen against Texas with a good defensive line and a decent quarterback? No, I don't know, lose to Georgia, and that's kind of it. Like Kentucky's got that good front, but they don't have the decent quarterback. Oklahoma's got that decent front. They didn't have a good quarterback. Florida decent front. It was an
Aiden Warner game like it. Just a guy doesn't mean they can't beat A and M. They most certainly can beat A and M. They can beat an AM by two touchdowns. It's just been a long year of not seeing it. That's all.
¶ Other Early Games
I think about. The heart, the passionate, the love, the commitment, and the energy you're willing.
To put into it.
All Right, the Quad Father's Segment's gonna be a little different this time around. We've just got a bunch of games that we need to call out. You can pick your own quads, but there are a bunch of cool rivalries that I think we need to discuss here. We will start at high noon on ABC. Tennessee nine and two Vanderbilt six and five. Tennessee needs to win against Vandy.
They are a ten and one half point favorite. Vandy now with Diego Pavia has a chance to beat an in state rival, has a chance to knock the in state rival.
Out of the playoffs.
I would presume out of the playoffs if Tennessee finishes with three losses. Does Vandy have more magic left?
Dan? I think they have covering magic. I'm gonna take the points, Okay. I don't feel confident about Vandy scoring enough to beat Tennessee. Though I'm not crazy high on Tennessee's offense this year. I think they've slowly improved. So I'm going to say, yeah, twenty seven to twenty, twenty four to seventeen somewhere in that. I'm going to take points here Vandy as a home dog.
This one was Tennessee minus twelve when I made the doc, and since then it's come down a little bit.
For as much as I'd like to.
Go Vandy to make it really uncomfortable for the playoff committee.
Let's get real, that's all I care about.
I think the combination of Tennessee's defensive front with their ability to throw.
The ball, I'm with you.
I think that's more than enough to get the w. I'm kind of looking at this one like I did South Carolina against Vandy with their defense are front.
Isn't it now? It would have been better if for this specific game, if Vandy barely lost to Alabama, because obviously Tennessee will have or Tennessee's attention will be fully sweared on Vandy. Here, there is something about you use what was the term you use, like controlling their own destiny. There is something that, like diego Pavia is just destined to hurt people's feelings.
I think this is this is his last regular season game. He lost that appeal that he I mean, I don't know where things stand in the court case to try and get another year of eligibility.
You wanted to stay of some kind Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, with junior college eligibility or whatnot. I think this is probably going to be his last home game short of the bowl, whatever bowl they end up going to.
So maybe there's more magic in there.
I look, I'm all for it, but yeah, the win, no bowl, But yeah, I've got a twenty seven to fourteen Tennessee winning and covering going to the playoffs.
Disagree he's gonna hurt feelings.
Twelve o'clock ESPN South Carolina eight and three, Clemson nine and two. Clemson favored by two and a half in the Paul Metal Bowl. Dan, I'm going South Carolina.
Outright here, as am I.
I'm going outright ink Clemsons would be a big win to get them to nine and three. I just genuinely think they're the better team. I love their defensive front. Clemson. I've come around on Clemson. I feel like I have a weekly sort of check in with Clemson where I'm not sure how I feel about them, but generally I think it's shown improvement throughout the course of the year. I just kind of like South Carolina more and their defensive front.
So give me the game Cocks. Yeah, it's just a consistency thing for me that South Carolina appears to be peaking right now. Nearly lost to Misszoo, but I think actually Miszoo has finally come into their own. It's taken long enough, so I'm gonna go South Carolina here. I just there is something about the trust of recent performances that I don't have with Clemson. I mean, Clemson's very good.
I think Dylan Stewart I have saw that there's some like public negotiations on what his nil number is gonna be next year. Okay, he might add like a quick three hundred K by performing in this one so yeah, I'm gonna go South Carolina here by the touchdown.
Also at noon in the SEC, it is the Governor's Cup.
It is Louisville in.
SEC Territory lex Tin Kentucky scoring off against their in state rival Kentucky Wildcats. A battle of seven and four against four and seven, louisvill favor by four.
Who's taking home the Governor's Cup? Dam? I have Louisville here, and I don't know if Kentucky had average quarterback play or proven average quarterback play. They made the change. Brock Vandergriff will not be starting this one. It's gonna be my guy, Butter Coally, Yes, Butter Kohley. But I think Louisville is just too solid. The defense is average, but I don't think Kentucky has the offense to take advantage.
Even though some of the skill on that team is good, I just don't think they're I'll button up enough team right now. So I have Louisville winning this one outright, covering with relative ease something like now thirty one sixteen.
Yeah, and Louisville's actually played well against the better teams in their schedule. They beat Clemson pounded with Stanford. Ye, yeah, pounded pit almost beat Miami. They hung with Notre Dame. The Stanford loss was not great, right, However, they're absolutely good enough to beat a team like Kentucky, which kind of feels in disarray right now.
So I'm with you. That was across the country too for Louisville. Stanford lost. Yeah.
Twelve o'clock ESPN two Kansas minus one and a half points. This line has shifted in favor of Kansas against the Baylor Bears. Dan, I am one hundred and ninety percent on Kansas here.
Oh man, I love it.
I fully disagree and ninety percent They're the one team the Big twelve I would not want to play right now, even more so than Asu.
I'm on Kansas. I think they're out of gas. Oh. With his not really being a rivalry game, I think Baylor has done enough both at home and on the road. I'm going Baylor here against this Kansas defense to take advantage. Get off the field enough. Not a great defense, but get off the field enough. I have Baylor winning this one by I don't know, three or four points.
Two named rivalries that will move to the afternoon slate twelve o'clock Big ten Network. It's the Land of Lincoln Trophy.
Have you seen this? By the way, have you seen the trophy? You sent it to me? Looks beautiful? Is that not a cool freaking trophy? The big gold, golden looking top hat, top hat. I love it.
I hadn't seen it before. Illinois eight and three, Northwestern four and seven. Illinois favored by seven and a half points. Any reason to go to Arthwestern here? Now?
I mean it's Wrigley Field, I guess I don't know. No, I have Illinois big.
Illinois big, Okay, ESPNU. They call it the Battle on the Bayou matchup between Louisiana at nine and two. They're a nine and a half point favorite on the road at Louisiana.
Monroe Battle on the Bayou, Dan.
Yes, Monroe's made a good story. They can get eligible with the win.
He lost five straight, which I don't love against not so good defenses other than Auburn. I'm going with Louisiana to win this one and cover on the road.
They're much better. Louisiana is much better, especially on offense. So I think I'm with you. Okay, Let's get to
¶ Other Afternoon Games
the afternoon block. Yeah, play, Welcome to the pain zones where we live. Let's go to the pain zone. Could this be the pain zone for the Miami Hurricanes. I have Syracuse three thirty ESPN. Miami at ten and one is an eleven point favorite on the road at Syracuse Syracuse eight and three, very quietly eight and three. I'm expecting a lot of points. Vegas is expecting a lot of points. They've got the over under at sixty seven and a half on.
A fast track in a dome.
JMA Wireless Dome DAN one of the weirdest places that you could play, especially against a weird coach who does not shower if he doesn't win, So the impetus is obvious. I think for Miami, you win, you caull fly, not just for the ACC title game, but most likely for the playoff as well. Is Syracuse good enough to cover this point spread?
Yes, they're also good enough to lose by thirty, but I think they're good enough to cover as well. Yeah.
Is Syracuse the kind of team that is good enough to lose by one score against everybody on its schedule? Maybe, with the exception of pitt I think probably they feel like one of those teams.
Even that pit game that was just a bunch of pick sixes, five interceptions for Comport in that game.
Yeah, I just wonder if Syracuse is the style team that's going to find a way, come hell or high water to keep this one close. Eleven feels like a lot. I understand why it's at eleven. Miami is obviously very very good on offense led by cam Board. I'm going with the for animal, Baby.
I'm going with the f animal two.
I got it at thirty eight thirty one. Miami wouldn't surprise me if Syracuse won the game out right because of the for animal, because it's a weird place, weird place to play, because Syracuse has a tendency to do this to teams. So I'm going Miami, but not covering.
They've run well, Syracuse has and there is still something about Miami where you want to be my top five team, you want to be my top eight team. And I know it was a special teams thing and it was kind of a weird situation against wake Forest. What's the score going into the fourth quarter last week twenty to fourteen. Yeah, for as good as Miami can be at so many different things on both sides of the ball, yeah, first half separation, first three quarters separation. It just hasn't been
a thing for this team. This team is not a take care of business team. And now you're going to fly up to Syracuse, New York, play in a dome and figure it all out to win this game against a decent Syracuse team. I think they can win. I think they should win. I have them winning, but I have them winning. Thirty five thirty one, all right, we agree that, Yes, we agree? Agree?
Yeah, three thirty ESPN two. Another ACC matchup weirdness. It may sound to say Cal on the road at SMU, SMU favored by thirteen and a half points at home.
This seems like far too many points to me. It's just too many points to me. Yeah, I don't think too many. And now this is it's a letdown spot for Cal having beaten Stanford in a big emotional spot, now traveling to Texas. I just think it's too many points.
It feels to me, though SMU has been really solid down the stretch, and though I think they are getting a little bit better each week, given the fact that they've punched their ticket to the ACC title already, there's a look ahead spot here. There's a look ahead spot. I would not want to be in a look ahead spot against a calgorithm no one more chance to put one final scare into a notable team from the deep South. Mind you, right, thirty four to thirty one, SMU wins, but only barely.
So you have like a certain amount of calculus, and it's not limited to SMU. You here a calculus of like, how many games do we actually have left if we are looking at a playoff berth, how much do we want to show? How much were we willing to put
out there? How long are we willing to leave starters in If you are a lot of these teams Miami, SMU, any you know Tennessee if they're up reasonably so against Vanderbilt, or again like Ohio State, that you want to have enough in the tank to get to early January, middle of January, late January, or whatever. No team is fully prepared to do this because nobody team has potentially played as many games as some of these teams will by
the end of the year. And so I think you're you're looking at a number of coaches who are trying to think about this in a newly smart way. Maybe it'll work out for them. Maybe it won't, but I think a game like this, I think is certainly an example of where it could happen, where you're just like, let's just win, stay healthy, pull this guy who's been beat up early, and maybe that allows somebody back into the game a little bit. We'll win. No, I think that's where we are with smu CAL.
Three thirty Big ten Network, Maryland a twenty four and a half point dog on the road at Penn State. Penn State leads this series forty three to three. Yeah, this game is almost never close. I think Penn State is going to lay the wood in as we say, forty one to fourteen.
Is my final.
I got Penn State big forty four to ten. Yeah, well you agree, very close again. Three thirty FS one Rutgers six and five Michigan State five and six. Michigan State needs to win. They are a one point favorite.
Rutgers hurts feelings. Rutgers is going to win this game by three. I love Michigan State here really, oh, I love them. I mean, it wasn't a great game against Perdue, but okay.
I'm treating this one like it's some sort of playoff game.
Truly. I think bowlel eligible and one I get Bowl eligible in year one.
Jonathan's okay, yeah, yeah, we disagree. I'm gonna go Michigan State. I also have listed here NC State on the road at North Carolina. North Carolina, I have minus three and a half. I don't know if that's changed since I made the doc, but mac Brown's been fired. NC State needs to win this one and get Bowl eligible. I'm on wolf Pack here, give me the wolf oh man.
I'm on North Carolina and Max's final game. I think they run wild.
A few named rivalries that I did want to call out here, yeah, and then of course.
One other one. Did you say BC pitt I was going to get to b C Pittes, Okay, just making sure BC pit all right? So Pitt's seven and four, they're a five point road dog against Boston College, who is favored at home. You have a you have a leen? Oh? I love Boston College? Here, do you? I think Pitts season has collapsed from beneath it with Eli Holstein's injury, a couple of other key injuries. I just I think Boston College is in a nice place, so I have them winning.
The three named rivalries that I wanted to call out. The battle line rivalry is Sarkansas at six and five against Missoo at eight and three. Missoo is favored by three. I've got the Battle of I ten between Utip and New Mexico State. Both teams are bad, but who cares. It's a cool rivalry in Mexico State favored by two. And then we've got deeper than height. You gotta say it in that tone. You can't say deeper than.
Hate is deeper than heat.
Yeah, app State at five and five on the road at Georgia Southern, which is seven and four. Georgia Southern favored by two and a half points. Got to lean on any of those games.
I'm going Georgia Southern, I'm going to New Mexico State, and I'm going Missoo. I'm going home teams in an advantage spot Missoos, as I mentioned, they've come into their own a little bit right there about to beat South Carolina obviously didn't go their way, but no Miszoo generating bigger plays more recently. As much as I like Arkansas Offen, I like Arkansas overall, but I just they haven't been
able to pull out games. I'm going missoo here to finish strong and UH have an opportunity to finish the season with ten wins. Ten wins.
I'm with you on all three of those, by the way, okay, all three those we agree.
Let's get to.
The night and uh late.
Wait wait wait wait wait wait what Fresno State, UCLA, TCU, Cincinnati, Go ahead? What do you got? Give me quicker? I have Fresno State the week after for UCLA the week after a rivalry game against a non headline opponent. As much as I respect Fresno State, I think Fresno State on the road here can cover TCU. I think beat Cincinnati. They've been performing better and better on offense earlier on. By the way, I have West Virginia over Texas Tech Duke over Wake as well. In that early window. I'm
going with the road teams there. West Virginia better away from Morgantown, and I like the Duke defense a lot against Wake. Now we can move on. Let's move on. Now.
¶ Other Night Games
You have to achieve failure. You need to take it that far. Nobody wants to go that far.
It's too scary.
You know something, I got news for you that's where winning is.
That's where winning is. Dan yep, our final quad here of the regular season.
I guess we.
Won't have quads next week. The whole thing's a big quad. I forgot to put this game on the document, so disrespectful. I forgot to put Washington against Oregon on the document after all of the baggage from a year ago and really throughout the rich history of this matchup. I forgot to put Washington against Oregon. So I apologize, Okay, So I mean no disrespect. It's an NBC game. It is Washington at six and five. It is your Oregon Ducks at eleven or zero. Oregon is a nineteen point favorite.
Yeah.
Is there any universe in which Oregon does not absolutely lay the lumber to Washington in this game.
Well, at the risk of echoing myself picking against Washington both times last year and being wrong both times, it's trending in that way. Washington went on the road. Now it's cross country. It's a little bit different than staying in the Pacific Northwest. What was the final score against Penn State a couple of weeks ago, two weeks ago, it's like thirty five to six. Yeah, Yeah, something like that, they had to make a quarterback change. The turnovers are there.
I think even with Oregon not playing an a game on offense, I think the defense will get off the field often enough. With Washington having some quarterback questions going between you know, Will Rodgers leaving the game for a couple couple of straight big games. I think it was against UCLA they pulled him after another suspect performance. So I don't know. I think Oregon's able to turn over Washington. I think they're gonna be able to run on Washington.
Washington has good defensive stats against the pass, but really the quarterbacks faced have been pretty disappointing, just like you know in the instance of Notre Dame schedule, so it didn't work out against Penn State when they actually had to play against a decent offense. I don't think it's going to work out against Oregon. And obviously Dan Lanning has done a very good job motivating this team this year, pulling away from teams even without you know, putting in
an a performance. So I have forty five fourteen forty two to fourteen forty two seventeen something that like, and Oregon hasn't been a team to score forty this year. They haven't been that team. But I think there's something special about this.
Yeah, I'm not feeling Washington this matchup here. I think Oregon is about as close to a complete team as we have seen so far this season, and I like him in this matchup to exact some revenge. I have to imagine, given what we know of Dan Lanning, he's playing up that angle lost to him twice last year, Right, I mean that's just sort of his jam. Give me a Oregon minus the number.
Yeah, I really don't even think Oregon has an incredible offensive game. I just think that the game gets away from Washington in too many phases.
Seven point thirty on Fox, they call it Pharmageddon, my favorite nickname. It's great Kansas State at eight and three, I will state at nine and two, I will state favored by two and a half points. Look, I have no idea who's winning this game.
This game feels dead even to me.
I looked at maybe two or three other projection system. Everyone has this as even. Yeah, everyone has this as even. I'm looking at this one. I'm saying, all right, it's cold night and names. I want the better running team and I think that team is Case State. So give me k State outright. That throws the Big twelve, mind you, perhaps into a further state of disarray because of the as you win. It would mean that ASU potentially rematch
scenario conference championship game next week. I'm not going to talk through all of these things, but Kansas State beating Iowa State could mean some really weird things in this conference. I just think they're the better running team and I like their matchup here, So give me Can't State outright?
Can you? You can't calculate on the fly for me. I know you had some sort of web app available. I can, I can't. What do you want? Kansas State winning, Arizona winning, Kansas State winning Aria, both Iowa State and ASU losing.
Okay, in the event that happened is BYU Colorado, Okay for the conference championship. That's just those are eliminators, all right, to know exactly, and I do have in this block as well. Another game to keep tabs on is the Houston versus BYU game, because Houston beating BYU is the one that unlocks true weirdness. We made a video about this, We talked about this on the Tuesday episode that we put out there, Houston beating BYU, also Cincinnati beating TCU.
If both of those things happen, and the rest of the lot in the Big twelve is chalk, that's the only instance in which Arizona State could win and would not be into the conference title game.
But I don't understand. So if ASU finishes the season with two losses, right, and Iowa State finishes the season with two losses, right, how does BYU getting a third loss throw ASU out of it? It would be.
So what we'd be looking at is a scenario in which Colorado, who also has two losses, and Iowa State has two losses, two conference lows, two conference losses. Essentially, because of the way that the tiebreakers are set up, it would unlock a scenario in which we're looking at opponents and conference winning percentage.
Ahead of full record, which obviously Colorado has a third loss overall to Nebraska. That's right.
And so in that instance, because Houston would knock off BYU because they would give them a loss, and because of the way that other tiebreakers would shake out, Arizona State would not get the nod. It would go to Iowa State. In Colorado, But that's the only instance in which it happens. The only instance of which it happens is Houston beating BYU, Cincinnati beating TCU, the rest of it being chalk.
And Arizona State would obviously have the tie break over BYU because of head to head.
Arizona State would have the tiebreaker over BYU, but they would not have it in that instance over both Iowa State and Colorado.
Who would go to the conference title game?
Yeah, wow, okrazy, I trust you craziness.
I have BYU winning this game. I have BYU winning as well. And this is one of those matchups to where I just have a lot of doubts about Houston's offense, And so is the spread still twelve and a half? Twelve and a half? Before looking at the spread and considering the number itself, I said, Okay, Houston's defense has been consistently pretty good, has gotten stronger over the course
of the season. BYU's offense, while at times shaky or not, they're not super prone to like a crazy number of turnovers. So I don't know, twenty three points sounds reasonable. I don't see Houston any more than ten. So I had a twenty three to ten, and it's twelve and a half, So I guess I'm rolling with given those points.
Gotta do it, man, Yeah, gotta do it. Who did you pick in Farmageddon, by the way.
And farm Again. I'm going with Iowa State. I'm going with the home team. It's gonna be freezing cold. I have them winning by five or six points. I just the how off and inconsistent Kansas State's offense have been has been on the road. I'm just even if Iowa State its own defense hasn't been typically very good as it has been these past few years. I'm going with the Clones at home.
A couple other name rivalries that we got to call out, Yeah, Commonwealth Cup, Virginia Virginia Tech. The winner of this game gets bullligible. Virginia Tech favor by seven points. Kyen Drones is questionable.
Colin Slee is questionable. Will I Shelee is questionable. Yeah, ill Virginia points.
I still think I like Tech a lot more, and they've generally owned this series. They've won the last three. They won by thirty eight last year in Charlottesville.
Yeah.
There is also the possibility that Brent Pry is coaching for his job, which I don't think is unrealistic at this point, given Wow, given where Tech has kind of finished up this year, it's definitely been very disappointing.
I'm going to go Tech. I like Tech at Home minus the seven. I'm going Virginia. The quarterback situation scares me away too much, and I don't. I don't think Virginia wins, but I think they'll. They're good enough to keep this pretty tight.
The Old Oaken Bucket ooh seven PMFS one Perdue is one to ten. They're a twenty nine point dog against ten and one Indiana for the Old Oakan Bucket. The Old Oaken Bucket, by the way, named via pom almost made a video on this, named after a poem Indiana minus whatever that we got Limb from Limb Yeah, yeah, eight pm, CBS Sports Network. It is Nevada, it is UNLV. UNLV favored by nineteen points. Here, gotta win. They get into the Mountain West title game. This is the battle for the Fremont Cannon.
Dan.
Yes, some interesting historical points on the Fremont Cannon. Maybe the most expensive rivalry trophy used to fire, literally fire until I believe UNLV dropped it by mistake and no longer is it functional. Oh that's something you care about. Give me Devada plus the points. I think Nevada puts them in the choke hold. I think UNLV wins, but this is close.
Nevada has lost five straights but have been competitive, but it's been against kind of I mean, air Force has been disappointing. They lose that one by three. Hawaii. They're not competitive against Fresno. They are competitive against It's really difficult to gauge. I think they're up for this game. UNLV trying to get into the conference championship game without injury, so I think they get up comfortably. Nevada comes back to at least cover this game.
We've also got Florida versus Florida State. Florida favored by fourteen and a half points. I'm on Florida minus anything in this game.
Game. Yeah, absolutely.
We've got Oklahoma at six and five against LSU at seven and four. LSU is favored by six. Part of me wants to sensationalize a bit and say that Brian Kelly is also coaching for his job. I don't know if that's a real thing. Okay, I do know that there is obvious disappointment with where LSU has finished up this season, and maybe we saw a bit of a renaissance with Oklahoma beating Alabama in the manner that they did. Maybe we're gonna see a lot more Jackson Arnold on
the run. I think they can keep this close. I just don't know if they can keep it within the six. I felt better about fourteen last week at home. Six on the road in Tiger Stadium at night feels like a different animal together.
Yeah, I'm I think Oklahoma is just never going to be what they were last week. Often just the defensive scoring, the defensive putting your offense in position to score big time plays from this defense, I'm with you. I think they regress to the mean in terms of total points, and they're going to find themselves in that thirteen fourteen point range. I don't love that. Garrett nus Meyers made some boneheaded mistakes this year, but I have this as twenty four to fourteen.
I've got this at nineteen to fourteen. Oh, okay, nineteen to fourteen. Another stellar defensive effort from Oklahoma, but LSU wins Okay fair enough. The only other game that I've got here because it's a good matchup. Frankly eight and three, Marshall eight and three, James Madison, James Madison favored by three.
Oh man, I'm going to Marshall. They've been I am strong in conference. I like Marshall in this matchup, I really do. I think it's a nice matchup for Marshall. One Thundering Heart.
If you are out and about amongst the people, download the Varsity Network app right now. It's free Apple App Store, Google Play story search for your school. You get the content that you desire about your desire, desire about your college football team. We are on there. A bunch of other podcasts are on there. Our friends at the Varsity Network do an awesome job. Go and download that for free. There is one more game that we should probably discuss, dan uh oh.
If you drop that big stanky play drum and five for me, baby baby, baby baby, let me cut the music for a second. Please take a knee.
Can I tell you how many people message me about Lehigh winning against Lafayette last week and then throwing the goalposts in the Lehigh River.
I would assume many.
So the Bethlehem Police Department did fish the goalposts out of the river. Yeah, for those interested, they got it and now they are trying to find trying to find whoever was responsible for throwing it in the river to begin with. Good luck with that.
Does the Bethlehem Police have like a dedicated frogmen division and Scooby a retrieval team something? Yeah, I gotta believe they do.
I gotta believe they have something like that because Bethlehem is right on the river.
Yeah. What cars got to get fished out investigated? You know, weird situations happened.
Okay, they fished it out. They're looking for those responsible. And of note, the Northampton County District Attorney, who would be I guess they'd have jurisdiction over whoever the assailants. I don't know what you say, whoever the offending parties were. It is of note that the Northampton County District Attorney is a Lafayette alum.
Ooh so maybe throwing the book at him maybe a little bit of yeah, a little bit of bad blood there. I like that.
Don't know if it goes full on refusal as a result. I don't know how these things work.
But who does Lehigh have Round one?
Lehigh has the Richmond Spiders in round one, a historic FCS power. Of course, Richmond is a ten and one half point home favorite here against Lee High Mountain.
How's the weather supposed to be in Richmond? Top of your head? Let me know, I know you just follow this stuff anyway.
I have absolutely no idea, come on, absolutely no idea of whether we'll play a factor here.
Richmond weather underground, that's my go to source. Tie Richmond, Virginia weather conditions for the FCS opening round playoff matchup on Saturday. Tie, you're not gonna believe this monsoon like can didn't know? Saturday it'll be in the thirties, low forties. That's fine. I'm gonna go uh, I'm gonna go Lee High to cover this one. How about that? I'm going to High out right out right? Baby? Who do they play? Who would they be playing in the second round of
the FCS playoffs? Bring up the bracket as I vamp here, Tie FCS playoff bracket? Who would Lehigh face? Not if? But when?
Yeah, when Lee High wins? Lee High would then? Okay, where is it said?
Now? I can't find it here. Let's see Idaho. It looks like I think Idaho.
I know you can beat Idaho. Come on, get on.
I know it's right there with Oregon week one, the number one team in America. Maybe they can't beat it. Ida's good. I like their coach a lot. Let's go Mountain Hawks. Let's go Mountain Hawks. Okay, that's all we got.
Thank you to one and all for downloading, for listening, for supporting what we do. Make sure you get on over to play rundboard dot com. We have not determined what the prize is yet. We have not been dropping any keywords throughout the course of episode. We have been so transfixed by these rivalries in front of us that it feels like we haven't really given this prize it's due.
We will have you. But well I mentioned cold weather. We will have a very big.
Prize next weekend for Conference Championship Week. Conference Championship Week will have all the games that are played on Saturday. We're going to mix in some player props. It is going to be the conclusion of our run the Board game before we go headfirst into whatever game we do. Winter Wonders style for bowls and playoffs and all that, which I have started working on already, and I need to talk about that after the show. But as for this the last weekend of the regular season, you mentioned
cold weather. Yeah, okay, obviously been talking about passion, passion of rivalries, right, joy Swing Joyce Swing at the beginning of the episode. Sure, we've talked about that.
For sure.
There is a lot of upset potential here. Yeah, to only further, I think the emotional weight of some of these rivalry games.
Yea.
And clearly this is a podcast. Clearly this is something that you're listening.
Clearly this is we can all agree. That's right.
Yeah, so cold Weather rivalry with Passion. Obviously this is an audio only format. You want to give away some sort of like cool, it's not everything can be viewed on YouTube. Well, you need to listen to it otherwise you don't really know what we're talking about.
That's true. Okay.
Do we want to give away some cool headphone situation?
Oh?
Okay, you like the you like the cut of my jib here? Yeah?
You got any good Black Friday deals? Any Bow's not a sponsor, could be any Beats, any Apple? Yeah?
Yeah, let's get away a set of Bo's headphones, Dan.
Noise canceling.
Let's give away noise canceling headphones from Bows. Oh my god, Ty, yeah, you're feeling saucy this week. Okay, big week, big prize. They're on sale right now. We're gonna give away noise canceling headphones. I guess they're called Quiet Comforts from bos Oh.
I wear those all the time. They're impeccable. I love them. Keep the ears warm, Keep the ears warm when you're on the plane. Yeah, yeah, of course.
Noise canceling headphones have changed my entire life. Oh my god, especially when I'm doing travel. They've changed my entire entire mood everything.
Mm hmm. Give them away. Great battery life with these, charge them up last you a long flight, no problem, talking about baby. I think that's a great idea. Ty, you nailed this one. Bose Quiet Comfort noise canceling headphones. Unless you're scared to compete, play run the board dot com. Get those picks in for a chance to win beautiful, beautiful headphones.
We will be back midnight Eastern on Saturday Night. We have done this show now a couple of years running. Every year we do the Week fourteen Recap Pod, the Rivalry Week Recap Pod live on YouTube Live wherever we might put it elsewhere. Who knows. Every week we do every year we've done this. This week it has been one of our biggest shows, and there is a lot at stake here, so we encourage you to stop on, buy,
partake in the festivities with us. If nothing more, download the episode, the next one that drops bright and early on Sunday morning. Wherever it is that you are listening to this episode, we hope you are safe. We hope
you are well fed. We hope you are happy. We hope you're out there amongst the people and enjoying all of this weekend has to offer, whether you're celebrating Thanksgiving here in the States, whether you're out and about somewhere else in far flong parts of the universe, just enjoying Rivalry Week and all its glory. Wherever this finds you,
we appreciate your support. We hope you enjoy all that Week fourteen has to offer, and we will be back to help decipher everything that transpired on Sunday morning.
Dan, I agree with all of that. For that, go over there, my good friend Dan.
For myself, Tie, As always, you know the drill, stay solid, Peace,