Michael the news break says that the Iranians moved most of the uranium or the nuclear products before the air strike.
I thought Israel had air dominance.
Why didn't they take out all those trucks.
This sounds like a cluster.
Let's walk through that, because I spent probably too much time last night trying to figure out what, what do we know or what's being said about the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities back on June twenty second. Remember it targeted three sites, Fordeau, the Tons and Isfahan, Operation Midnight Hammer B two Spirit stealth bombers, fourteen bunker buster bombs, the GBU fifty seven massive ordnance penetrators. We had a submarin that more I think more than two dozen Tomahawk
cruise missiles. And then Trump comes out. The President comes out and claims the strikes quote completely and totally obliterated Rand's nuclear enrichment capabilities. But then when I start digging, and I'm not yet willing to fall on one side or the other, and let me explain why, because I'm not trying to be you know, wishy washy here, and I'm not trying to be.
You know, the lawyer well, you know, consider this.
But on the other hand, it's because I know how intelligence reports are given. I know how intelligence is collected, and I know that sometimes intelligence is the facts may be there, but nobody asks the right questions, and so the summary, the briefing doesn't get to the heart of what you really want to know. And I don't know whether that's the case here or not. And I also don't know whether politics is playing a part of this or not. So I just went through every publicly available
source that I can have access to. I ask a couple of people that might have some tangential knowledge about it to find out what's real and what's not real. So let's just think in terms of damage assessment, and let's go first to FOURDEH, because that's around's most fortified nuclear facility, very deep, with than a mountaineer calm, and it is designed specifically to withstand air strikes.
It's an uranium enrichment.
Site capable of holding up to two thousand, nine hundred and seventy six centrifuges. It is probably the most critical part of Iran's nuclear program because of the hardened structure. So on that particular site, we deployed twelve mops on four doh each wayh you know, thirty thousand pounds each capable of penetrating up to sixty meters of earth or
eighteen meters of concrete. We dropped twelve of those twelve times well sixty meters depending on how many you know initially of earth, and then twelve times however many that you know through eighteen meters of concrete. Maxar Technologies, part of which is actually Colorado, I think. Their satellite imagery captured on June twenty second shows six large craters clustered around two entry points on the ridge above the facility, and then you see dustined debris scattered all across the
mountain side. Tunnel entrances appear on the satellite imagery to be blocked now because of the strike shock waves or where there are preemptive Iranian actions to seal the entryways. Now, I'm really sure it makes any difference. The entry points appear to be shut down, sealed off. So what's the damage assessment? Well, the damage as assessment itself is the
significant surface damage craters blocked tunnel entrances. The so called experts suggest that the mops likely targeted ventilation structures or other infrastructure on the surface to maximize penetration. The extent of the damage to the underground centrifuge halls and the
enrichment equipment, honestly, I think remains unclear now. The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, a guy by the name of Raphael Grossi, he has stated, and I quote, no one could be able to tell you how much it has been damaged underground, as the IAEA inspectors have not yet accessed the site. The facility's depth estimated that forty five to ninety meters of bedrock. An iron's use of high strength concrete concrete may have limited
the bomb's effectiveness. I emphasized may have because we don't know. There are a few experts. Jeffrey Lewis from Middlebury Institute of International Studies. He says the strikes did not appear to target RAN's highly enriched uranium stockpiles, which are likely
sorted underground tunnels. Now, I tried to figure out what was he talking about, tunnels inside the facility, Tunnels that like you know, tentacles somehow go outside, still beneath the mountain, still within the mountain, but outside, you know, like like imagine a big giant room in the middle, you know what would to be forty five or ninety meters below bedrock, and then from their tentacles out in those titles they throw of those titles.
Well, that's what he says.
The Institute for Science and International Security YAHOO by the name of I shouldn't say YEAHO docause David Albright. He suggests that thousands of the uninstalled centrifuges may remain intact elsewhere, which, of course, he argues, would allow Iran to reconstitute its enrichment capacity. The only Israeli commentary is anonymous speakers that describe the damage as serious but not complete destruction, which
obviously would contradict Trump's claim of literated. And of course it gets to the definition of obliterated, which in my vernacular is under destruction, totally destroyed. Aron's Atomic Energy Organization says, oh, just minor damage. But what would you what would you expect them to say? So for FEDOR, it's sustained severe
surface damage, probably disruption to underground operations. The core underground enrichment capabilities, including the centrifuges and the uranium stockpiles may not have been fully destroyed, and part of the facility may remain partially intact. But is it accessible and is it operational? My guess is that it is not operational. It's certainly probably not accessible at all, but that doesn't mean that parts of it inside the very core may
some of it may remain undamaged. It just you know, you know when you blow something up that you know you have pieces and parts whatever that remain intact and other pieces are just shredded. So that's my assessment of for door Matons. The Isfahan province now, it is Iran's primary uranium enrichment site. It has both above and underground facilities. It housed cascades ofentrifuges, including those at sixty percent enriched, and that was what some have described as the cornerstone
of the urine Iranian nuclear program. So two mops were dropped into Tons targeting in an underground centrifuge facility. Israel had drop bombs prior to that, back a couple of weeks, while she s maybe nine or ten days earlier.
If it already.
Damaged the above ground infrastructure, including the Iranian's pilot fuel enrichment plant. And they also attacked all the electrical substations. So what's the damage assessment? Again, you go to Maxar Technologies. You can find all these photos online. Significant damage to the above ground structures, including that facility that was in
producing the sixty percent enriched uranium. The IAEA confirmed that the above ground part was destroyed, the electrical infrastructure, all the substations, the power supplied buildings, all the backup generators they were and they used the term obliterated, which I just found interesting. So the IAEA says that in terms of the toons, the infrastructure was obliterated, But what about the underground. Go back to the IAEA, Grossie, the same
director director general, I think is its title. Notice that the sudden loss of external power would have severely damaged, if not destroyed, altogether, the underground centrifuge cascades. All right, So that's the IAEA destroyed all, you know, probably destroyed altogether. Now what got interesting was and the Wall Street Journal has a headline today. I've not yet read the story, but the let me just pull it up, just saying team what the headline is? Wall Street Journal today has
a headline. The reason this is important, is Hegsath? The Defense Secretary says FBI is probing leak of Iran strike report. The preliminary preliminary report said strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities step back to RAN's ambitions by only a few months. The Israel Iran cease fire appeared to hold for another So apparently this information I'm about to share with you is information that was supposedly leaked and now the FBI is investigating it.
So what is that?
A Defense intelligence agency, the DEA, they released a report or leaked a report, or somebody got a report on June twenty four, that's yesterday, which indicated that core components, including some centrifuges, remained intact and could be restarted within months. Those are That's the only general quote that I can find about the destruction there. So let's go to the
Institute for Science and International Security. A guy by the name of Spencer Farragassa estimated that reconstituting that which could remain intact and which could be restarted could take years. But he is the one that has suggested that the Uranians might have uninstalled centrifuges stored elsewhere, reducing a setback, not that they moved any He in particular says that
they may have uninstalled centrifuges that were stored elsewhere. They emphasize that the strikes did not target enriched uranium stockpiles, which could and may have been moved to covert sites. Now, the Iranians, of course, you know, know, nothing happened, kind
of Bagdad Bob here, nothing happened. So I would just conclude this Natan suffered very extensive damage, particularly to the above ground infrastructure and likely to the underground centrifuges because of the power disruptions, because those centrifuges need remain powered up and if you destroy the power source, then you're
going to damage the centrifuges. There may be some underground capabilities and some uninstalled equipment that may remain intact, but that will that limits the long term impact, and that doesn't define or I can't find any definition that if you took those First of all, let's go back again about natons. I don't believe they have access to the internal core facility. Now, that will take time to get
access to that core facility. Once they get in there, they may or may not find that there is some destruction and it may be obliterated, it may not, but we just don't know yet. So some underground capabilities and some uninstalled equipment may remain intact, which over I don't know, a period of time which I'm not willing to define, they could reconstitute.
Is Fahn.
Is a key nuclear research and production center. It housed the uranium conversion facility, fuel fabrication plants, and again another storage area for enriched uranium. It is probably the least fortified of the three structures. However, it is critical for preparing raw materials and converting uranium into a form for enrichment, so it's kind of like it's the least secure, the least fortified, and is the initial starting point for their conversion process. It was hit by more than two dozen
Tomahawk cruise missiles. The missiles targeted key surface infrastructure. Again, Israel had hit that site earlier in June, damaged four buildings, including the uranium conversion facility. So what's the damage assessment? Again, go back to MAXR and their satellite imagery. It shows heavily damaged buildings, infrastructure, and again the IAEA General Director or Director General confirms extensive damage to six additional buildings,
including a fuel rod production facility. The strikes targeted the facilities that with minimal or no nuclear material, so of course there was no radiological release. By the way, I would just make a comment here that the IAEA says they've seen no release of radiation anywhere, and people have
jumped to the conclusion that means that wasn't damaged. I think that's erroneous because if you have the facilities that you know, ninety meters below ground, all contained within concrete, that's like a nuclear reactor, and so if you then bomb that and everything is now piled on top of that concrete, than the concrete itself is now damaged and is piled onto the uranium, then you're probably not going
to have any radiation exposure. You're not going to have any radiation leaks, because that's how nuclear reactors are designed that you know, it keeps it all contained, and if you pile the mountain on top of that, it's even more contained. But that's just my assessment. They go back to the Defense Intelligence Agency, they say the underground structures, including storage for the highly enriched uranium, were largely unaffected. Yeah,
I made the mistake. That's not a mistake. I decided to see what are some of these people saying on X because it is a good source for news. You go back to one account back on June fifteenth, claim that a key facility for converting ninety percent enriched uranium gas to metal, which is a step weaponization, that it
was damaged. But I can't find that verified anywhere. Lewis and Albright, those two experts I cited earlier, they emphasized that the strikes did not destroy the enriched uranium stockpiles, which they say may have not that they were, but they may have been moved to other secret locations, and of course the uraniums. Once again, well, there's nothing wrong here.
So I would conclude that in terms of ISFAHAN, it did sustain severe damage to the above ground infrastructure, but the underground storage and some of the critical components may emphasize, may remain intact. But that may be so what because ISFAHAN their role in uranium conversion and storage makes it less central to enrichment. That means it's still important, but it's not that sign Now, what is the president, what's
the administration? And what are some of the independent assessments of the overall damage.
This is where it gets dicey Michael.
It seems perfectly fitting for Trump to use a term like total obliteration for the destruction and Iran. I mean, what else is you going to say, big, beautiful obliteration. Of course, that's just Trump.
I agree wholeheartedly, it is just Trump. But I think I think it's worth because any anyone who wants to use that language against him by showing that there was not and I think it's redundant to say complete the
blitterate because obliteration implies that you've totally destroyed something. They're going to use that against him politically, and in fact, I think that's what's going on, which is why I wanted to go through and see what I could find from whatever sources I can access, to see whether or not we've really stopped the Iranians or have we paused the Iranians? Have we slowed them down? I mean, there's
a whole spectrum of possibilities here. And I just again because the cabal, and in this case, I mean every aspect of the cabal, the you know, the tech companies, all of the ruling elites, Democrat and Republican They're all over the place, and the media is all over the place, and so I thought one thing I would try to do today is just give objective, an objective survey of what I really think has happened, which leads to the next thing I wanted to do is just let's look
at the overall damage assessment from the administration, independent sources and the IAEA satellite imagery, and what was what were the Iranians doing beforehand? So, as you point out, both Trump and the Deaf sect have said that the strikes obliterated the facilities, and Trump went on, of course, to your point, describing the operation as a spectacular military success. But remember that the next day when I played the briefing from I played the entire eight minutes of General
dan Kine determine the Joint Chiefs. When you think back on that, he was actually more measured. I'm not going to play the whole thing again, except he said this that all three sites sustained quote extremely severe damage and destruction,
but that a full battle damage assessment was pending. And then he went on to say, generally speaking to until we get that full battle damage assessment, we won't know the extent of the extremely severe damage and destruction, which is, you know, slightly different than what Trump said, but again not surprising the Defense Intelligence Agency. I've got this under independent assessments, but I only say that because the DA
having worked with them, they really do try to be objecting. Now, they had a preliminary classified report that was leeure somehow obtained yesterday by CNN, The Washington Post, New York Times, the Guardian, the usual suspects in the cabal. Now I've not seen the report itself, but they conclude that the strikes did not destroy core components of the Iranian nuclear program,
including the centrifuges and the highly enretigrate uranium stockpiles. They say the program was set back by a few months tops that's a quote from the Times and others, rather than years. They do say that the entrances to Fordeau and the Times were sealed, but that doesn't necessarily mean
that the internal underground structures collapsed entirely. Those two experts fort Lewis and Albright, they argue that the strikes were incomplete, because they still argue their contention is that the Iranians likely moved the enriched uranium and retains uninstalled centrifuges that were never put into use, so they could take the enriched uranium, use those in the uninstalled centrifuges and start
back up again. The IAEA reported, as I said earlier, no off site radiation increases, no major radiological release grows.
See.
The Director General noted significant damage at all three sites, and he says the toms's above ground facilities were destroyed and potential centrifuge damage underground, and they too, as I said earlier, waiting to access underground access or at least access as far as they can get so they can
do a damage assessment. And the satellite imagery both from Maxar which I've quoted earlier and Planet Labs PBC, does show all the surface damage, the craters, the debris, the destroyed buildings at all three sides, But obviously that cannot show the underground damage, so that's going to be harder to gauge because of the depth and the fortification. It was interesting that I found satellite and you may have seen these, the satellite images from days before the strikes.
They showed this unusual what they call unusual truck activity at four dou Now some will argue that suggests that the Uranians were moving enriched uranium or equipment, and in fact, a senior IRGC, the Iranian Guard Corps, they actually claim back on June twentieth, that all enriched uranium was transferred. Now that's unverified, and it's unbelievable because I would expect them to say that. But I've looked closely at those trucks.
Those trucks, now this is concluded. I'm obviously not an expert, but those trucks don't look like the kinds of trucks that you would use if you're going to be transformed, transforming, if you're going to be transferring enrich uranium, either in centrifuges or in rich uranium and whatever containers they keep them in and centrifuges, those just didn't look like the kind of trucks you would use. I would think you would have, you know, some sort of more sophisticated equipment
to move them. So the uranium preparations, based on my past experience with.
The Iraq WMD issue.
In which we had intelligence that said some of this may have been moved to both Russia and into Syria. In fact, I still believe to this day that some of the some of the WMD, particularly the nerve gases and others, probably were moved into Syria because the Syrians eventually use those nerve gases against the Kurds and others. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Iranians did something like the Iraqis did, and you know, in anticipation of some strike either by the United States or by the Israelis,
may indeed move some of it. But I'm want to emphasize the only basis on which that claim is made is the satellite imagery showing trucks lined up, which they claim to be as unusual. I have no clue whether it's unusual, unusual or not, but there were indeed trucks in some of the satellite imagery days before the strike, and they may have been doing something. They may have been reinforcing, They may have been bringing more dirt in for all I know. But that is the extent of
the uranium preparations enriched uranium stockpiles. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency and all their experts in their analysis, they are being quoted saying that Iran moved much of its highly indur itched uranium before the strikes, possibly to secret facilities, and Lewis, again from I forget whether he was from which group he was from, noted that significant amounts of this in uranium still exists, but the location remains unknown.
Now.
That stockpile, if it really is intact, would allow Aran to potentially enrich to ninety percent according to the experts, in days two weeks, using any surviving or covert centrifuges that they may have hidden elsewhere. So, while the Tonza's centrifuges were probably I shouldn't say likely damaged, the Uranians probably have uninstalled centrifuges stored elsewhere. I think they probably have done that simply because I know that we do that sort of thing. You know, we have just to
take something that's not That's the total opposite pharmaceuticals. We have pharmaceutical stockpiles, and some are in incredibly secure facilities and some are not in so secure facilities in order to have easier access. Well, if we would do with that with pharmaceuticals, I know we do that with other dangerous things, Well, why wouldn't the Uranians do the same thing. We do know that the Iranians were well, I shouldn't
say we know. It was reported so to the extent that the reports are correct, that Iran had had begun constructing some new underground centri feud facilities near Neatons before
the strikes, and that area was not targeted. And again the Defense Intelligence Agency reported that Iran may maintain really small covert enrichment sites that they purposely put together, so they would have some redundancy, some you know, like having a generator, you have some ability to keep the power on, to keep the process going, albeit at a smaller, more discreet level. There is one weaponization expert, Kenneth Pollock from
the Middle East Institute. He's quoted as emphasizing that the Iranian nuclear knowledge is very widespread and that you cannot eliminate the knowledge by bombing. Now we know that we've killed some scientists. We know we killed, or shouldn't say we although there may be some of the facilities. We know that the Israelis targeted some of they had scientists. But that's all I can find reported is that the is Rayley's targeted and did assassinate some of the key
scientific experts that were in charge of the programs. How many assistants did they have. How much knowledge do the assistants have Are they capable of stepping into the place of those that were assassinated. I can't find any publicly available information about that, but I would think again, if you're going to build redundancy into your program, you would
have some of that. You would have some other scientists that you know, maybe are just you know, they're fill ins, they are understudies, and they follow along to see what's going on. So I think we've set it back. The question is whether we've obliterated it, totally destroyed it or not. And if we accept that there may be redundant sites on a smaller scale that remain untouched, then technically, in terms of obliterating are we talking about obliterating those three sites?
Are we talking about obliterating their nuclear program? If it's the latter, we probably haven't done that.
Michael, nothing will change in Iran, and tell there's a regime change. When that happens, we have a change of leadership, we have a possibility of peace. Until then, they're just going to keep working away on, you know, trying to kill Americans and Jews.
Their cockroaches, and that is precisely what they will do sixty nine to twenty seven rites that might so we can drop a bomb from thirty thousand feet into a washing machine, but we can't watch where some trucks went. Don't believe it, Well you shouldn't believe it. The satellite imagery that's taken by our satellites is constant, so we know of the movement, which is why I go back
to the point about the trucks. The trucks just don't period of me to be the type of trucks that we would that they would use, or anybody would use to transport that kind of dangerous equipment and supplies. So I don't believe that things removed, although they may have tried.
The bottom line would be this. The strikes back on the twenty second indeed cause severe damage to their nuclear facilities at those three sites, particularly to the above ground structure, and I believe to the underground components, but I don't think that it was obliterated completely destroyed.
Some of that blow ground once and if they can.
Get access to it, can be salvaged, can be used again. So the program was set back for a period of time, and I don't have the expertise to say whether it's months or years or whatever it is. But to the talk back point, I do believe this. The Molas are like cockroaches. They can survive anything, and they will continue
to survive, and when they can, they'll sit it out. Now, if if Masade or the diaspora outside the country can get some sort of revolution going, then we have to support that because to your point, the way to ensure that they do not reconstitute, restart or pick up the program where it left off is regime change. I'm not advocating boots on the ground, but I am advocating that Right now the Molas are in I mean, they have no air force, the IRGC has been, their leadership is completely disrupted.
There have to be some.
Within the IRGC that are willing and waiting to defect, but there needs to be some tipping point that will get them doing that, and Masad in the Israelis are in the best place to do that.
That's my take on the damage assessment.
So I think we ought to all just recognize that probably not obliterated, Yes, sat back not totally destroyed, and the only way to completely stop it.
Even if we can, even if it was obliterated.
If they remain in powered, they'll turn to their allies and start it all over again. May take years, but they will