Russia's Shifting Dynamic - August 15th, Hour 3 - podcast episode cover

Russia's Shifting Dynamic - August 15th, Hour 3

Aug 16, 202530 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

In this episode, Sean Hannity provides an in-depth analysis of the ongoing Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, Alaska, focusing on the geopolitical stakes surrounding the Ukraine conflict. Guests George Beebe and Rebecca Koffler discuss the potential outcomes of the meeting, emphasizing the overlapping interests of Trump and Putin regarding NATO and Ukraine's territorial integrity. As tensions rise, they explore the implications of U.S. sanctions on Russia and the shifting dynamics in American public opinion towards military support for Ukraine.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Coming up next, our final News round Up and Information Overload Hour. All right, just Round Up and Information Overload Hour. Toll free. Our number is eight hundred and nine point one Sean if you want to be a part of the program. We're in Anchorage. We're in Alaska. The summit with President Trump Vladimir Putin. Since they arrived at a meet and greet has been at some point they've they've

worked in a lunch here. We haven't gotten the full breakout of everything and the individual meeting that has taking place, a bunch of breakout sessions taking place, and at that point is going to be probably immediately after this program, there's going to be a we don't know if it'll be a joint pressor we don't know if it's just going to be President Trump. At that minute, he probably will come to me. I'm not sure if we're going directly live on Fox or if it'll air at at

nine o'clock. So it's it's going to be a pretty busy day anyway. Thank you for being with us and here to analyze the stakes. And we've been going through every aspect of this. George Biebe is the director of the Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft. Now, he's spent more than two decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat policy advisor, including director of the CIA's Russia Analysis and staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice

President Cheney back in the day. Rebecca Conflors with US, host of Censored but Not Silenced her podcast and former strategic military intelligence analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency. Guys, good to have you both. Thank you for being with us. Rebecca will start with you. Now, I've gone through the lead up to today, and I can go over every aspect of it. You know, watching you know President Trump coming into today, that Putin will face severe consequences if

Alaska fails to and the Ukrainian war. Now, well, no, when in a very short period of time when I interview President Trump and will air it on Fox, you know how this all plays out. But certainly the President's strategy, he's not hiding it is going to be to shut off the spicket and tell countries you do business with Putin, you're not doing business with us. And I think President Trump wins that conflict.

Speaker 2

So Sean, Unfortunately, I'm not very autimistic when it comes to the achievement of President Trump's ultimate goal to stop the bleeding in Ukraine. She is, why did you tasations are irreconcilable at this point, And yes, you do have some cards in terms of the secondary sanctions, but Putin's economic concerns and She's concerns are two different things. Even

makes we place the thanks secondary sanctions on Russia. And it's uncertain whether China or India are going to play ball with us because their strategic calculations are based on their natural interests, not on ours either. There has been for decades and major purchaser of Russians armaments, not a person, not just oil. China has been a strategic partner, not the true partner, but to Russia. But so if those two don't play balls, who you will continue the war?

Even if the sanctions bring some hearts of the Russian economy. Culturally, the Russians are just so much more comfortable than Europeans or Americans to tolerate casualty, to tolerate any kind of economic shortages, and so decisions. Houselors is not going to be impacted because the Ukraine issue is an existential issue for him and for Russians. Ukraine very part of Russia on which it relies.

Speaker 1

Well, I want to be I want to be as realistic as I can possibly be, and I don't want to over promise on the deliver at some point if you, for example, if you look at Ukraine last night, they they bombed the living hell out of a Russian oil refinery during last night strikes. Hundreds of Russian soldiers are dying daily as a result of this war. Putin now forcing prisoners, ethnic minorities, and migrants to fight on the front line. So they've got their own problems, they got

their own economic problems. Russia's you know, there's an article in Fortune magazine about their coming fiscal crunch. You've discussed this in detail. On the other hand, you know, Russia I think has the military advantage going into this, but you know, on paper, I don't think anybody would have thought, you know, three years later that Ukraine would still be in the game and fighting as valiantly as they have been able to fight.

Speaker 2

Ukrainians have been fighting valiantly. There's no questions that, uh, these guys are patriots, patriots, they are fast learners, but they're in an untenable position Sean. But it's like Russia is considered by the Pentagon itself as an und quote anosier competitor. That means that is on par with the Russia with the US military. And he asked a lot of analysts, say, Russians camp fight, you know, how come they haven't taken in Ukraine yet? But the Quessian way

of war and your fay of war completely different. So, uh, Ukraine is running out of man it's running out of munitions to the what we call the combat potential stands points, which.

Speaker 1

Is can't but but they're not going to run out of munitions now, I mean very very well. For first of all, a couple of things have happened Number one, Number one, and we'll get George to way In on this. Number one, The American mindset on all of this has shifted and shifted rather dramatically. Is you know, the difference between giving what weapons to Ukraine and them buying in the Ukrainians buying weapons, I think has gone over much

better with the American people. That's number one. Number two. I think Europe you know, underestimated, underestimated Putin's commitment to this, and they now realize that they have in many ways made multiple mistakes. They have helped fund Putin's war machine, but now too, Donald Trump has pressured them to double their commitments to NATO, and the weaponry that will be selling NATO can be then transferred over. So I think

that's a big deal too. So I think a lot of things have changed since you know this calculus, you know as has shifted dramatically. Do you not agree, George, Well, yeah, I do.

Speaker 3

This is a situation though, where I'm a lot more optimistic about something significant coming out of this meeting and subsequent meetings to put this war on a path toward resolution that I think most people are. And the reason is because I don't believe that objectives and Trump's objectives are fundamentally incompatible. In fact, I think there's a lot of overlap between them, and I'll just list where I

think those are. Number One, Putin does not want Ukraine to be in the Natal Alliance and he doesn't want native forces on Ukrainian territory. Well, guess what neither of his President Trump. He is not eager to undertake a treaty commitment to go to war with Russia to defend Ukraine, and neither were any of the other presidents in the post Cold War period. We've worked ourselves in this situation.

We thought we could bring Ukraine into the Alliance, but not actually have to go to where to send Ukraine, and that was a mistake in our part. Trump wants to fix that, and Putin is more than willing to reach an agreement on that. So that's a big deal. The second thing is President Trump does not want to see Russian forces conquer all of Ukrainian territory. He wants to stop their advances so that Ukraine emerges from this with a great deal of territory and independence. Well so

does Putin. Putin recognizes that trying to conquer all of Ukrainian territory is a trap for the Russian military. It would require not just conquering the territory, but occupying and governing it, and that would require an occupation for several times the size of the entire Russian military and subject those occupiers to ongoing guerrilla attacks forever. It would be a trap. So that's another area where I think there's basis for an understanding. Then the third thing is Putin

wants to be a great power in the world. He doesn't want to be subordinate to China. He doesn't want to be dependent on China's large gess. He wants to stand up and have an ability to deal with the West and with the East at the same time. Well so does Trump. Trump looks at this and says, it's not an America's interest to drive Russia and China together

to work against us. So all of those things I think mean both Trump and Putin have a desire to find a way forward here, and I expected out of this with some significant achievements.

Speaker 1

All right, quick break right back. We'll continue more with Rebecca Kopfler and George Bieb on the other side. Than your call is also coming up. We continue. We're in Anchorage. We're in Alaska. The Trump Putin summit is underway. Full coverage my interview with Trump to nine Eastern on the Fox News Channel. All right, we continue with George bib and Rebecca Kopfler. At the end of the day, there's going to be landswaps, and it's got to be for

Ukraine's security guarantees. Not necessary, not necessarily NATO, but certainly their relationship with the United States going forward between a financial mineral deal and I would imagine the continued purchasing of American weaponry is going to got to be part of the deal. They've got to be able to stop a third invasion. Rebecca, I know you're less optimistic, but that's basically what the deal would have to end up looking like. That's not what we're going to get out

of this summit. This this summit is to see are you serious? Do you want to sit down at the table, And if you do, we're going to move forward quickly at my pace. If not yet, I'm out of here. I'm done.

Speaker 2

And that's and that's the crux of the matter. First, agree with George that at this strategic level, at the big picture, Russia and the United States, and especially Student and Trunk are the same page. Right, But Trump is probably the only person, perhaps in addition to JD. Van who wants to see that happen. Trump is going to be president for four years. Pudent is looking long term human potential, will be president until twenty thirty six. Student

believes that it's only a temporary change the normal. The baseline for the United States is an anti Russia posture. The issue has been so politicized, sewn that you can no longer like George and I. I'm listening to us talking and the main stream media does not want these kinds of talking points because they are very simplistic. Had Lensky good, Russia bad? Like that's the level, but that's

well we are. It's an extremely complex issue, and I believe the Deep States, the administrative, all of those people who are in fact profiting from weapons deliveries to Ukraine. I'm not going to let Trump to conclude that deal. And the points to address on the weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

We have decluded our wrong weapons oxenal shanks to very dangerous levels, javelin thingers, even patriots missiles, especially one hundred and fifty five milimeter shells, because Ukraine has an extremely high burn rate on the battlefield, a lot higher by Western standards. Right, So that is exactly why she'd hands it, tried to pause UH the deliveries of the military hardware

to Ukraine. But then person Trump reversus that decision. There's a National Security Strategy Commission that has concluded that the United States has no capability to persecute what we call a multi data war, which is a real UH threat it's a tangible threat Russia, China, North Korea and Iran potentially synchronizing operations or even so we just simply don't have it. And Europeans are in the stained position. They are what invasketball is depleted and we, by the way,

we have no capacity. We have no molt industrial capacity UH to quickly scale up or it's proven he transition is not in economy of wartime, putting seven years prior to the invasions. That's why the Russians are pumping out warm results in three months than entire Europe right now is producing in one year. So that is the layer of the land. I wish I could tell you give me some optimism. I'm just trying to be realistic.

Speaker 1

I agree with a lot of what both of you are saying, and it's it's an interesting time. The one thing that you cannot deny is is no other world leader that would even think about expending any political capital. And this now would be the eighth peace deal president

Trump involved himself in. And I can't think of past presidents that would be willing to go that hard, that deep in the paint, you know, for actually something that is not the biggest benefit to the United States, except that the United States should be the country that wants to stop killing around the world if he can, and use its power to do so. India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Rwanda, Congo, Serbia, Cosavo, Thailand, Cambodia, Armenia,

as a Baijan, Egypt, Ethiopia. We'll see, I'll know. I'll know in a little bit right after the show when I interviewed President Trump. Don't forget, we'll be broadcasting might we might even be on earlier than nine pm Eastern And if we are, we'll send out a big social media blast on it. Eight hundred nine, Shawn. We continue from Anchorage a right twenty five now till the top of the hour, eight hundred and nine to four one Sean. If you want to be a part of the program.

We're in Anchorage. We're actually at Joint Joint Base Elmendorf. I am near Putin right now, I'm near President Trump right now. It was so weird my hotel filled with all these Russian like agents. They must have dumped like twelve truckloads of equipment. I mean, if there's pictures of me naked on the internet, you'll know why it's not because I'm putting them out there. But it was so bizarre. And then they're like coming up to me. They recognized me.

I forgot to tell you this, Linda, they recognize me, and oh my gosh. They thought it was the biggest interview they ever got. Said, how do you know me? And I think one guy was that guy? The foreign minister. Yeah, and he's trying to ask me a question. He doesn't speak English. Oh no, So the woman reporter was asking, and I was very blunt. I said, Trump doesn't have a lot to gain from this. And by the way, if you don't think for a second, you know, he'd

walk out of this meeting in two seconds. You don't know Donald J. Trump, he will walk And then I went on to I said, and she goes, what message you send for putin? Stop the killing? Stop the killing? How many more? How many? I said, how many more women and children have to die? How many more Russian soldiers have to die? And so it's going to be very interesting. President Trump tonight with me on on the

Fox News channel. Immediately after he does a short press conference, So I'm not sure if it's going to be a joint press conference. Nobody knows. I mean, this is very fluid. And you know they've been in a breakout group now, you know for a while, and you know, and we'll just see what happens.

Speaker 4

I'm sure they're having borshed and nice shots of vodka.

Speaker 1

Vodka, vodka, vodka. And I did try my reindeer sausage today just so I could get back at you. Listen, now, the president in the lead up to today, let me play him saying he hopes for this second meeting with Putin. I mean, and this is the stupidity of listening to European leaders and NATO leaders and they're so called leaders because they couldn't they could never be in this position, which frustrates me. You know, Donald Trump doesn't need lectures

from them on how to negotiate. But Donald Trump is saying there will be no deal without Ukrainian and europe Western European approval number one. And the purpose of today is to get to a point where President Trump is convinced this guy is willing to have a peace deal. And if he is, he would very quickly like to move to step two. Step two would be President Zelenski, President Putin, Donald Trump and hopefully that's when you start

talking about what is inevitable. Now, don't kill them, messenger, because I talk about the inevitable. I'm telling you how this is going to end. I've been doing, you know, radio since nineteen eighty seven. I could sit here and lie to you and tell you I don't think I have a very good idea how this is going to end. But I'm telling you how it's going to end is likely going to have to be given. Take on both sides. For Ukraine, it's going to be landswaps. They're going to

lose territory. The Dunbas region, for example, in Ukraine is eighty percent Russian national not a fact maybe a lot of people want to dwell on, but it is reality. So I'm giving you the reality of if you want a deal that would actually result in peace in the continent of Europe, I'm giving you the reality of what it ultimately is going to look like. Now you can also game out if war continues, Ukraine will not really exist as a country. Do I think that Russia can

win and conquer it? No, I don't. I think it would take years and years and years. I don't even think Putin is that stupid? I do think he's a thug, a murderer and a dictator. And I don't think Zelensky's missed the perfect either. Although the Ukrainian people have fought valiantly. I think Putin. I was interviewed by some Russian as I was going into my hotel media person and I just said, when is the death and dying going to stop? Is it worth it? You couldn't have had a negotiated settlement,

and where was Joe Biden. Joe Biden created all of this. Zelensky on his part rightly, so is going to want guarantees, security guarantees and meaning he doesn't want a third invasion for his country. If he's thinking long term, that would be the first thing on my mind, and that would be non NATO security guarantees, which should be possible and something that I think Donald Trump will have to work with with Putin on nobody gets what they want in

a deal, It just doesn't happen that way. Otherwise, let the war continue. That's your option. I wish there were better options. They're not now. As for the president, if Putin, you know, in the end, by the end of today, if this doesn't go well, we know what President Trump's going to do. He said there will be severe consequences for Russia. We know what those consequences are. He's going to shut off that spickett, which is the Russian economy, which is oil, as quickly as he possibly can. And

you know, the President's right too. This is a chess game, and both sides, Russian and Ukraine, have been firing up to the last second leading into this. They think they're getting some type of negotiation or a bargaining chip or some type of advantage. It's it's it's not what really, that's not going to be what the reality is. But

we'll wait, we'll watch, we'll see. Let me play the President saying that he hopes for the second meeting, so everyone understands what the president goal is here, because if he walks out of here, oh he didn't get a peace deal, that's not the purpose of what is going on here today. He's been very very clear about it. The purpose is to see if there is a path that they can get to for that hard negotiation, which

he wants to happen immediately thereafter. Listen, we have a meeting with President Putin tomorrow.

Speaker 5

I think it's going to be a good meeting. But the more important meeting will be the second meeting that we're having. We're going to have a meeting with President Putin, President z Elynsky, myself, and maybe we'll bring some of the European.

Speaker 1

Leaders all maybe not. It's I don't know that. It's going to be very important. We're going to see what happens.

Speaker 5

And I think President Putin will make peace. I think President z Elynsky will make peace.

Speaker 1

We'll see if they can get along. All right, that's President Trump, you know, coming into today. The President also saying there will not be security guarantees in the form of as I just said, that's not going to be that those cards are not on the table. However, that doesn't mean European troops. That doesn't mean a deal with the United States to build up enough weaponry to serve as a deterrent. Uh, wouldn't be part of the deal. Here's what he said again, manage your expectations here.

Speaker 6

Just one thing.

Speaker 5

What about the possibity that is possibility of the United States providing security guarantees.

Speaker 7

To Ukraine, maybe along with Europe and other countries, not in the form of NATO, because that's not going to You know, there are certain things that aren't going to happen, but yeah, along with Europe, there's a possibility of those.

Speaker 1

Many were discussions today, mister president. Are the territorial swaps on the table? How will you be discussing that?

Speaker 7

They'll be discussed. But I've got to let Ukraine make that decision, and I think they'll make a proper decision. But I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine. I mean to get him at a table, and I think you have two sides. Look, Vladimir Putin wanted to take all of you grant. If I wasn't president, he would right now be taking all of you grant. But he's not going to do it.

Speaker 1

And so you know, we'll learn a lot more when I interviewed the President's it's coming up shortly, so when I see him, talk to him, interview him, I'll know a lot more. One thing before I get your calls here, I want to I did have an important interview last

night with the FBI Director Cash Patel. And remember we've been following all of the declassification by both Tulca Gabbard, John Ratcliffe, all the breaking news of John Solomon, and you know, Cash Patel is this burn these burn bags inside the FBI and hard drives from predecessors involved with Russia Gate. And it's clear that the evidence is becoming overwhelming and incontrovertible. And that's why Pam Bondi now has and she was on last night, and that's why she

now has herself created a grand jury. Again, she can't confirm that, but here's what Cash said about what they've been able to find. Remember he was Devin Nunaz's chief of staff. If you think I know a lot about Trump Russia collusion because we covered it for three years, trust me, he knows everything I know and more. Listen.

Speaker 4

But sadly, we found a room locked away in the Hoover building that contained burn bags. And just for your audience, Sean, a burn bag is a government bag that is specifically created to destroy classified evidence and shred and burn it, hence the name burnbag. We didn't find one, we found seven. That wasn't the only thing we found in there. We found hard drives from our predecessors and prior FBI leadership, and folks like Paige Struck. Call me McCabe, call me

the list goes on from Russia Gate. The names were strewn all over these materials. Now, as our great Attorney General, I just told you, we can't cannot deny or confirm what we're looking at, but what we can discuss is what we've publicly disclosed. And these documents have been publicly disclosed, because the greatest way to educate and bring along the American public for a transparency initiative and accountability under President

Trump is to give them the documents. And step one is by cleaning house inside the walls of Hoover.

Speaker 1

And that's cash Bettell, you know, saying what they have found. Now. He also mentioned last night something that really caught my attention, how we're educating the public about what happened. And if you really if you're a long time listener to the show, pretty much everything we've been telling you the whole time is what happened.

Speaker 4

Heg Elizath, Well, Sean, what we're doing is building a case for the American public under the Truth and Transparency and Accountability Initiative. And what I mean by that is ag BONDI brilliantly highlighted our partners Director Ratcliff at the CIA and and Director Gabbert over at the d and I. We are working with them because the documents that would facilitate and invent instigation of this magnitude don't just rest

at the FBI DOJ. They're throughout the intelligence community. And we the Russia Gate guys like Johnny Ratcliffe and myself who investigated this and exposed this, are trying to expose documentation that we've known existed for years. At the same

time we're finding new material. So the best approach is to release this information with them and also go to our colleagues in Congress who have an oversight function on the Judiciary committees and oversight committees, and demand from US information and documentation that we can publicize things like the Durham Annex, which we've known have existed this entire time,

but we're classified for political reasons. We are educating the American public as we build through this transparency initiative, and where the investigation goes, I can assure you of this, we will max accountability for the American public.

Speaker 1

All right, that's the FBI Director Cash Mattel. All right, let's get to our busy phones. Eight hundred nine point one, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program. Let's say hi to Tim. He's here in the great state of Alaska. Tim, you got to be proud of me. Tried a little reindeer today, never tried it before, and you know what, the reindeer sausage tasted like.

Speaker 6

It tasted great. I know because I've had it.

Speaker 1

No, it tasted like regular sausage, pork sausage, which is what I usually get the same thing.

Speaker 6

Well, welcome to Alaska, Sean. I'm glad you're tasting some of our culture here.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And I will tell you the people here are wonderful, incredible. Every place I've been, every person I met, except for my hotel that was full of like Russian KGB former KGB guys.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 6

I was hoping you get up to Fairbanks for a visit, but it sounds like that's not going to happen.

Speaker 1

No, not on this trip. But I am convinced that I want to come back in the summertime for sure.

Speaker 6

Yeah, I'm heading to Valdiz. You can come out to Valdis and go fishing with us. Tomorrow. We're going to go fishing down for some silver salmon. I won't and I promise I won't feed you day old crab cakes.

Speaker 7

Okay.

Speaker 1

By the way, there's nothing that stinks to high Heaven more than somebody that would take a day old crab cake and throw it in a microwave and blast it for like forty minutes. That was awful.

Speaker 6

Well, I just let it contribute so much to your program. Just love her. I'm from the East Coast and she reminds me of the East Coast when I'm living up here.

Speaker 1

So I wish she'd contribute to some good food and maybe you know, write me back.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Tim, Thank you Tim for appreciating me and for saying it out loud for all of the world to hear.

Speaker 1

And I am so grateful for your kindness and in supporting me. Tim, have fun fishing tomorrow, catch a lot of fish.

Speaker 3

Man.

Speaker 1

Appreciate you being here. Uh, I guess we don't have time with just flying by eight hundred ninety four one shatos on number All right, that's going to wrap things up for today. Let not your heart be troubled, Hannity tonight from Elmandor Air Force Base, from the very room that President Trump and Vladimir Putin negotiate today. That's where

we are doing the interview. All happening tonight Hannony nine Eastern DVR on the Fox News Channel, President Trump's first sit down interview, telling us all about the day's events. We'll get into every weed, every bit of detail, every nuance news you'll never get elsewhere in the legacy media mob. All coming up tonight. We'll see you. Then we'll be back at home in the Free State of Florida on Monday. Have a great, great weekend, and we'll see you tonight.

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android