Poll Updates - October 18th, Hour 2 - podcast episode cover

Poll Updates - October 18th, Hour 2

Oct 19, 202430 min
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Episode description

 Pollsters Matt Towery, of Insider Advantage and Robert Cahaly, of the Trafalgar Group who co-host Polling Plus together, are here today with their latest polls. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

All right, thanks Scott chan An hour two Sean Hannity Show on a Friday to free Our number is eight hundred and ninety four one Sean if you want to be a part of the program. Only eighteen days to election day, early voting ongoing in states, some record voting according to there's some reports in states like Georgia, North Carolina and elsewhere, and we're going to keep an eye on it. We should have more data, more information next week. Who's voting, what counties, whether they tend to lean red

or blue. And as we get that anecdotal information, we'll pass it all on to you. With all that said, if you haven't registered to vote and you want to register, if you still can in your state, we put all the details as a public service on Hannity dot com. When early voting starts and stops in your state, your commonwealth, that's on Hannity dot com. Kamala in her own words, is a public service on Hannity dot com. Tim Walls, in his own words, as a public service. Look it is.

It is now overwhelming where the American people are in terms of the direction of the country. The pole I've been citing this week seventy nine percent of Americans polled think that this country has headed in the wrong direction we have. According to a new Gallup poll just released, fifty two percent say that they and their families are worse off today than they were four years ago. Only thirty nine percent say they were better off. Usually, you

know those economic indicators. Peace and prosperity matter if you look at the issue of peace, Well, we have war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and Israel on the verge of responding to the two hundred ballistic missiles that are ran directly fired into their country. So and of course we have the leader in the architect of the October seventh attack taken out and Kamala Harris trying to take credit roa justice was done. Well, she was the one that was saying over and over again, don't

go into Rafa. Well, guess where they found him. They found Sinwar in Rafa, like they shouldn't have taken out the thirty two year old leader, thirty two year leader of Zbolah and that guy's name Nasrallah, and they took him out, and they took out the top five leaders of Hamas, and they they have the pager incident, the walkie talkie incident. I mean, some of the most incredible military efforts ever. But you know, where are we in terms of the country. Where are we in terms of

where are people? A snapshot in time? Now we're going to bring on our posters here in a second, but before we do, I just want to say something, and it's I said I would say it every day, and I'm going to keep my promise, and some of you might think it's annoying.

Speaker 2

I hope you don't.

Speaker 1

I hope you you understand why I'm saying it, because it can't be repeated often enough. Of my view is when I look at the polls and I'm make the comparison. I look at poles every day. I look at betting markets every single day. I can go through them all in great specificity, in great detail, and I often do on this program. And you know, I just remember one thing. Twenty twenty two was supposed to be a red wave year. Now I think this is a different time. I think

the issue of abortion has been clarified. I think the fear mongering is not working this time. But I look at certain other things that tell me, Wow, this is pretty impressive for example, if you go back to twenty twenty and you look at the polls right now, Joe Biden was up by eight point nine percent nationally on Donald Trump. Right now, Kamala Harris is leading by one point six Real Clear Politics average. That would be a

net of seven point three four for Donald Trump. If you look at the battleground states, Joe Biden was up four point four in twenty two twenty. Now Donald Trump is up by nearly a point in twenty twenty four. I mean, that is a dramatic turnaround, an addition of five point two percent spread. If you look at the favorability rating in twenty twenty, it was Democrats plus eighteen point three. This year it's it's Democrats plus seven point one.

That's a net game for Donald Trump of eleven point two. Again, these are the Real Clear Politics average. All the posters in the country, some are more reliable of my view than others. But putting all that aside, that's a dramatic shift. We have Fox News National head to head pole and in that poll, Donald Trump is winning by two points. If you look at Georgia, we just got a new poll out. It has Donald Trump up by three. If you look at insider advantage, and that would be our

friend Matt Tower's going to join us. You have Donald Trump by two. If you look at the national race, Emerson has Harris up fifty to forty nine. That's how close it is nationally. If you look at Harris X, it's a two point race for Harris and again nowhere near the numbers that Hillary Clinton had in sixteen or twenty. But I don't want you to take that to the bank.

And I think everybody, especially if you live in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, that you have to assume that your vote will determine the outcome of this race. Ohn seventy nine percent of the country, you know, think that we are on the wrong track. That is very, very revealing. You know, polls out showing the congressional ballot has now moved towards the Republicans. That's the first time during this election cycle that I have seen that's the

Harris X pole. It's very close. In the Emerson poll in Arizona, CBS has Donald Trump up in Arizona. He's also Rasmussen has him up in Wisconsin.

Speaker 2

Michigan.

Speaker 1

You have MNS Mitchell Research, which is a Michigan poll has Trump up by one, very very close. Rasmussen has it tied in there. In New Hampshire. We had earlier polls this week from Quinnipiac showing Georgia going Donald Trump's way by a big margin. I think this is an outlier myself fifty two forty six, and then but he had they had Trump down by three in North Carolina.

I think a lot of people are worried about turnout in North Carolina, but there's no doubt that there's been a major shift anyway.

Speaker 2

Joining us now Robert Kahale.

Speaker 1

He is the head of Trafalgar, the polling group and insider Advantages. Matt Towery, guys, welcome back to the program. I mean, am I giving a fair admonition and analysis here because I don't want people to get complacent. I don't want this sense of urgency of this moment to pass. I want people to understand that this is by every definition of tight race. I can point to things that give me hope and things that you know are frustrating to make Matt, Well, let me.

Speaker 3

Give you an example. So everyone's saying about Georgia's robust early voter turnout. That's actually not true. Georgia is down, but as of last night by twenty seven percent versus twenty twenty. Now here's the reason why. Because the Georgia legislature changed the rules. Everybody's not getting a free you know, a mail in ballot that they can send in. You have to really give an absentee reason. They're tight on things,

and these absentee ballots are way down. Now. You recall that was the big issue in Georgia back in twenty twenty. It's no longer an issue. So let me give the corollary and why people have to be concerned. In Pennsylvania, they've already said we're going to take ballots till the last day, and it may take two or three days to count them. So on one side, you've gained a little bit in terms of how things are going. On another side, it's more iffy in general. Sean, Obviously, Trump

has the moment there's no doubt about that. And I want to say this. We said on your TV show and your radio show weeks ago that the momentum changed and nobody was talking about it. Then it happened as Robert and I say, and our poem. We saw it right after the second assassination attempt. It accelerated after the VP debate and then they decided to put Kamala Harris out, Kamala Harris out on these very friendly shows where she

came across as vapid to the public. They exposed her too much and she started a plumbing like a rock.

Speaker 1

Let's get your take at a snapshot of where we are, and do you agree with my admonition, Robert Kahley, I.

Speaker 4

Do, And because the Democrats there get out of the vote and any other shenanigans are very effective, and they've had people on the ground in some cases for eight or ten months, and the GP just doesn't have an effort like that.

Speaker 5

So you know, they can out kick their coverage a little bit there a couple of points. So it's it's important that everybody turn out. You know, I really appreciate the research you did. Just then, I know he's a friend of yours and he's on your show.

Speaker 4

But Bill o'reiley was kind of making light of my poland and Matt Tower's excuse me.

Speaker 1

Let me interrupt and just say as a fact that in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, you were two of the top polsters, the most accurate pollsters in the presidential race period and of sentence. That is an indisputable fact recognized by Real Claire Politics, among others.

Speaker 6

Yes, sir, and that was why I to suggest, because we had a breakdown of fifty five percent women and forty five percent men, meant that we were putting our thumb almost scale for Kamala.

Speaker 5

You know, he probably should have done his homework. That was exactly what the turnout was in Georgia and twenty and twenty sixteen, exactly fifty five forty five. So maybe you should do a home work like you do.

Speaker 2

Well, Okay, I'm gonna let I'll bring you in, O'Reilly. You guys can fight it out.

Speaker 3

Andy, I say this, all right, here we go.

Speaker 1

I'll let you both fight. I'll let all three of you fight it out. I don't really care. Bill loves a good fight too.

Speaker 3

I've been on Bill's show many times in the past.

Speaker 7

I love him.

Speaker 3

I do not want to poot. Robert called killing Matt and Robert.

Speaker 1

Okay, no, the next book is going to be killing Hannity, so don't worry about it. It'll be fine, all right, quick break more of our posters, Matt Towery, Robert Kaheley, and your calls on the other side with our posters

Matt Towery and Robert Kahelly. You know, I'm looking at closing arguments and I went through this in great specificity, and I went over some of it earlier in the program today, and I think it we now have the strategy, the closing arguments are beginning to be set, and I think with that said, I think I have an idea for Trump's what Trump's closing argument should be.

Speaker 8

You know.

Speaker 1

Kamala Harris, you know, goes along with a caller on charlois the god that Trump's going to bring in fascism. He suggests that Trump will put non white people in camps. Raphael Warnock that Trump will be dangerous to women and black men. Joinless Behar Trump is a fascist. James Carvill Trump is a Nazi. Stuart Stevens MSDNC suggesting Trump's supporters could burn down voting centers to discount black votes. So they're not going to run on are you better off

than you were four years ago? And I think that that then they are in lies their big problem because we've heard nothing but this incendiary rhetoric against Trump, and they're just ratcheting it up in the final days of the campaign. And if Donald Trump points out the borders more secure, are your towns in cities safer and more secure? How do you feel when you go to the grocery store and you're dealing with Harris Biden inflation and prices

up twenty five thirty percent? How are you feeling when you fill up your gas tank and you're paying a buck buck fifth whatever it is?

Speaker 2

More gallon? Uh?

Speaker 1

And how do you think about America's role in the world? And do you think that that Kamala Harris is prepared to deal with she and Putin and the Mullas and ir on. That's my final argument. Are you better off than you were four years ago? And they can go with their incendiary Trump is whatever name they want to call him on any given day.

Speaker 5

I mean, I think you're exactly right.

Speaker 9

And the thing is, you know he needs to say, are you better off than you were four years ago? If not, then the people who made you miserable? Is the reason they're working so hard in saying all this crazy stuff trying to beat me because they want to.

Speaker 5

Keep you feeling like you feel them out and I think that's an argument that will work. And by the way, refer to a Riley ninety percent of what he says ninety wonderful love to death. But just wanted to call that one out because like five people take.

Speaker 2

Me laugh night about this, Matt.

Speaker 1

And by the way, she has had the worst forty eight hours between the disaster that was the Brett Bahr interview and not showing up at the Al Smith dinner last night.

Speaker 2

Matt Towry.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I'm gonna say this. I don't think there's anything that organically they can do to change the path of this race right now. I worry about outside events. Don't know what those might be that could change the landscape. I mean, if a pandemic completely rocked the election in twenty twenty, I looted all the million ballots who were put out in George of the people. That's about the

only thing that can change this thing right now. He is The betting onds in Britain are overwhelmingly for Trump, and there are going to be some close states, Robert, and I know which ones there are. There could be a better, better ones for Trump. Where I think he'll do very well. But all in all, even with their great down round game, what Trump needed was a surge. We said this a year ago. He had to have a major sort of sweep, a big time on vote

and movement. That's happening and that can actually outdo the ground game. If you don't have a candidate, then you don't have the support. But lord knows what kind of events could take place that could change the landscape between now and three weeks from now. And I don't want to predict your guests. I'm not in that business, and I'm not trying to be some sort of conspiratorial type. I'm just saying anything can happen a lot of times it's out of our control and out of the candidate's control.

Speaker 1

So you both agree with me that everybody listening to my voice and your voices right now needs to think that their vote will decide this race. And if that is the mindset, and putting the polls aside and putting the betting markets aside, that that will be the determining factor. There are enough people in this audience that can make a difference, especially in those swing states. Matt Towery, thank you. Robert Cahley, Thank you appreciate it. He gives you the

latest news when he hits the air. This is the Sean Hannity Show, ALI twenty five down to the top of the hour. Here's our toll free number this Friday. It is eight hundred and nine point one Sean. If you want to be a part of the program, eighteen days to election day, Early voting now going on in many states around the country. If you want to know how to register, if you're interested when early voting starts

or stops in your state, your commonwealth. We have all of that information as a public service on Hannity dot Com. We have the Kamala files. Kamala in her own words, Tim Walls in his own words. Look, every year, Apple will release a new iPhone right at and T, Verizon, T Mobile, big carriers that play the same old tricks on people. If you just sign your name right here for two three years and overpay for service at an astronomical amount, we're going to give you a free phone. Okay,

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You'll save an additional fifty percent off your first month. That's pound two to fifty keywords save now, No contract to sign, no activation fee, you keep your phone, You keep your phone number, pound two to fifty keywords save now for the same service from Pure Time. All right, let's get to our busy telephones. Let's say hi, to lee out of North Carolina. Of course, that state was hammered by Hurricane Helene. And wow, they've been that. So

many people's lives have been uprooted. Our prayers are with the people in North Carolina. It was interesting early voting numbers are showing that people even in these hard hit areas are going out to vote in big numbers. Anyway, Leon, I hope everyone in your state is okay. Hope you're okay, and we'll glad you called Happy Friday.

Speaker 10

Happy Friday, Seawanna. I'm a first time caller. We did great here in this small little town of Dallas. We're about six thousand. Population of about six thousand, and I will understand that seven hundred came in between the hours of eight and two on first day of voting yesterday, so they were pretty packed the day as well. Yancey County and all those hard hit counties have also had good turnouts. So things are going good. But we still need more help getting these folks to polls.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I understand efforts are underway. I've made numerous numerous calls about it. I don't want to go into great specificity in detail, but there there are going to be heroic efforts made to help people that have been so devastated and impacted by Hurricane Helene that if they if they want to vote, they're going to get the opportunity

to vote. But I mean, some people lost everything, and uh, but they still love that, they still understand the importance of this election, and they want they want their right to vote. They deserve an opportunity to vote. And and proper integrity, full accommodations need to be made to help.

Speaker 10

Them and and and they should. And you know, if if the list can roll out of Cadet Or who used to be known as Jimmy Carter to place this vote, then the Heart and Seek can get these folks out uh to place their votes. But like I said, I think we're doing pretty well. Uh so far, so good. And you're right, we need we need a house in a Senate Jordan. Folks like to caster but for Trump, but they don't complete their ballots and we need them to complete their ballots.

Speaker 1

I think that's a great reminder for everybody. I really do. Leon, God bless you. I hope you have a great weekend. Eighteen days to go, man, fifteen days on Monday. Crazy Buck North Carolina as well. Buck, how are you our prayers for the people of North Carolina. Glad you called Happy Friday, Sir.

Speaker 7

GotY Friday shown it's honor and speak to you. I live in Wake County, which is Raleigh, and we're the biggest county in North Carolina, and we've got we've got a thousand people a week moving here. Most of them are New York as, as Linda would say, and I.

Speaker 1

Got to say that again, most of New York is, like Linda would say when she talks about offee and talk radio, right, that you mean that, Linda.

Speaker 7

I'm just checking yeah that that Linda. Yeah, yeah, New York.

Speaker 1

Well, Linda's being awfully quiet right now. Usually but if calls it in, he sucks up, sucks up to you.

Speaker 11

It's not he's not, He's just he's staying in facts. Okay, he's talking about New Yorkers. New York is moving to North Carolina, which, to be perfectly frank with you, as a mass exitus because we're ruled by communists. But I just hope they leave their stupid politics at home.

Speaker 1

But well, you you got you, you got out of New York. You're not in New York. Anymore, you're in Pennsylvania.

Speaker 11

I do not live in New York City. I commute to New York City, which I have to say is just as god awful as living there. But I am happy to live in Pennsylvania. And Shapiro sucks too. So I don't know six and one half doesn't then the other.

Speaker 1

I want to be on record to say, Buck, and you could be my witness. I have pleaded with her that she work at home and not go through that long commutey we actually have the technology and many days she actually does work from home.

Speaker 11

That's true. So anyways, Buck, back to you.

Speaker 2

Back to you, Buck, you're your ball, yep.

Speaker 7

So anyways, so I've been you know, I've been a pole observer and greet and not going to a door since since since Obama's first term. And I've met these people when you talk to him, He asked me, well, you know why did you move here? Well, high taxes, you know, a red tape or high cost living. So he asked, well, why are you trying to turn your new home into the place he has left? And they don't have an answer for it. But I got to

tell you that I've got a good ground game. And my point is that we've got I did a little research. We've got almost four hundred thousand registered gun owners in this state who are not registered to vote, and we've got same day registration and voting up until November second.

So my urge is to my fellow North Carolinians, if you are planning to vote, and you have a friend, a neighbor who's not planning not to vote, you know, go out, make the effort, get them, get them to get their friends to come, because we've got you know, this radical Josh Stein who's running for governor, uh CNN did the hit job at Mark Robinson, and you know he's soon them. But you know, it's fifty million bucks is not a lot to pay for defamation if he if he loses a lawsuit and our wins loss, they

have to you know, buy the governorship. But it's it's urgent, as you were saying, for everybody to get and vote, just because you know Trump is going up in the polls and they're kind of going off the rails. We can't assume that all he's got it in the bag. And and you know my vote doesn't count. You your vote to be the one that turns that you know, decides North Carolina and our state can decide the election.

So I'm just urging everybody you know who's listening to North Carolina to get out there and vote.

Speaker 1

I am urging the same Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. By the way, Monday, on this program, I expect to be able to give you an announcement, a

programming announcement. We appreciate you, Buck, God bless you. You know, and if you know, I noticed that there were a lot of gun owners according to the two reports that came out this week, about ten million I think gun owners, Linda, correct me, I think you sent me that article that are not registered to vote, and about thirty thousand Evangelical I'm sorry, thirty millions Aelical Christians.

Speaker 11

Thirty two million Evangelical Christian voters are either not registered or not voting because they're disenfranchised for one reason or another. And ten to eleven million hunters because hunting seasons goals in the same two months, so they don't go vote. So you guys got to go.

Speaker 2

Well, she wants a mandatory gun buyback.

Speaker 1

And if you're a Christian, I would imagine you don't want men playing in women's sports. I would imagine you believe in parental rights and you don't want like California Minnesota agenda affirming care given to minors without parental consent. Those would be three huge reasons for both Hers and Christians to get out and vote. I tend to agree. Let's go to Keith and Saint Louis. Keith, how are you glad you called? Happy Friday?

Speaker 2

Sir?

Speaker 12

Thank you for having me Sean, I really appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 12

First thing I wanted to talk about. I know that Kamala was on Charlamagne the Gods podcast saying that, oh, if you gets elected, he's gonna lock black people up put him back in cages. Did it me or did Donald Trump get criminal justice reform done?

Speaker 1

I mean, you know, it's interesting to bring this up because I had a conversation with a friend of mine. Her name is Alice Marie Johnson. Alice Marie Johnson was given a life sentence one time, first time offense. It was a drug charge that she had and she made a big mistake in her life, but they put her in jail for the rest of her life and all the years that all these Democrats are in the White House Obama eight years, wouldn't they They wouldn't even you know,

take a letter from Alice Marie Johnson. And criminal justice reform came along, and that was Donald Trump and he dealt with the issue of disparate sentencing. And Alice Marie Johnson has become friends with him and we're going to have her on the program soon and Alicebury Johnson, as a matter of fact, she's going to be on Monday. And Alice Marie Johnson got her life back. And I'll never forget the moment because she never thought she was

going to get out of prison. Her story is so compelling and rather than being bitter and angry and not having a purpose in life while she was in prison, he's a very Christian woman. She's got a heart of gold. He made a decision that she wanted to devote the rest of her life to help the younger prisoners that would be getting out again and counsel them and guide them and awaken their spiritual side in the hopes that they'll never come back again to see her, because she

never thought she was getting out. And it's just a beautiful story and she's done so much good to help to people, many people that are minorities, by the way, to get out of jail. Working with Donald Trump. That in my opinion, the President doesn't talked much about it.

And when I interview him, which will be next week, I think I should ask him about that because I would like to see him, you know, I would like a deep dive into people that might be in prison or it might be you know, in jail that don't deserve to be in jail. The Innocent Project, which I supported for a while until they've gone woken and left wing themselves. But there are organizations out there that do this full time. And I will give a tip of

the hat too to Kim Kardashi. He didn't know Donald Trump, and she went to the White House and got it done. And now I'm proud to call Alice Marie Johnson my friend. She'll be on Monday anyway, appreciate the call, my friend. Thank you, And remember historically black universities and colleges. Donald Trump gave the biggest financial commitment ever, you know, criminal justice reform. It was Joe Biden, the predators at the comments that he made et cetera. Bick break right back.

We'll head to our busy phones again. Eight hundred and ninety four one Sean. On this Friday, eighteen days to election day, if you want to know about registration, voting, early voting, when early voting starts and stops, the Kamala files, the Walls files, it's the public service.

Speaker 2

It's on Hannity dot Com.

Speaker 1

As we continue, the final hour of the Sean Hannity Show is up next.

Speaker 4

Hang on for Shawn's Conservative solutions.

Speaker 2

Friday, eighteen days to election day.

Speaker 1

Let's get back to our busy phones on this Friday, Let's say hide and in the great state of Texas. God Bless Texas, God bless. I hope the people of Texas help our friend Ted Cruz. We need him back in the Senate, and don't fall for this phony all read what's going on?

Speaker 2

How are you? Anne?

Speaker 8

Absolutely? Hi, Sean, it's so great to talk to you. What an honor. Thank you for having me. And yeah, definitely already. Ted Cruise has Scott to be reelected, and I'm pretty sure he's going to be. If you saw the debate between the two of them, Ted Cruz had him the whole time. So I'm talking about the debate here. I wanted to say something about, well, not the debate, but whenever Brett Bear had Kamala Harris on the other day,

what a failure on her side. Like Brett Bear did an absolutely amazing job, but she would not answer a question. And I don't understand how these polls are so close, Sean, please please help me understand how are these polls so close? Anyone?

Speaker 1

I think there's one reason that I haven't really mentioned yet that we've got to understand here. But nearly ten years, this man has been smeared, he has been slandered, he has been besmirched, he has been he has been charged, He's been the victim of the worst abuse of justice of my view. Yeah, and it's and and he fights back,

and some people don't like the style. But the fact is is that in many people's minds, that caricature and they've now ratcheted up to he's a racist and a fascist and a sexist and he's going to use the military and put liberals in jail, which is just a crock of Adam Schiff. And I think that I think that caricature is stuck with people.

Speaker 8

Did I hate to say it. My father is has a GDS. He's got Trump Arrangement syndrome. And I love my father. We have a great relationship, but we can't talk politics. And it's so static because a lot of people are like that today. You just can't even talk to people anymore. I don't know what to say but that that interview with her was horrible. She all she did did not answer questions.

Speaker 2

It was terrible.

Speaker 1

This has been a bad week for Kamala Harris and frankly, the joy is gone. They don't know what to do at this point. And now they're bringing in, Oh, let's bring Barack and Michelle Obama in. Barack Obama doesn't even want to do it, if you want my opinion. But anyway, I appreciate the call. Thank you for being with us. God bless you, God bless Texas. And we hope everyone in Texas thinks about our friend Ted Cruz.

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