Mark Penn - October 28th, Hour 3 - podcast episode cover

Mark Penn - October 28th, Hour 3

Oct 29, 202431 min
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Episode description

 Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell, Chairman of the Harris Poll, and former advisor to Bill and Hillary Clinton. Today he joins the show with his take on the election just 8 days out.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Coming up next our final News roundup and Information Overload Hour, a news round Up, Information Overload Hour. Here's our toll free number this Monday. One week from today, it will be election day in America, election eve actually, and every day's election day, because well it just is if there's voting going on anywhere in the country. But one week from today election even America. Our number is eight hundred

and ninety four one sean. If you want to be a part of the program now is a public service on Hannadi dot com. If you're interested in your state, regardless of what party you're with, and you want to vote, we have information on how to register. Some states have same day registration when early voting starts, when it stops in your state, your commonwealth.

Speaker 2

All is of public service.

Speaker 1

We also have the Kamala files, her in her own words, are radicalism, extremism. It's been ignored the entire election by the state run media mob and the Walls files as well. Again a public service Hannity dot com. I thought this would be a good time to take a look at the polls, but according to Kamalo, there's only one poll that matters, and that's her internal numbers. And based on how she's been acting, I'm thinking that our internal numbers

are not particularly good. And I think we got the first evidence of that when she was in hiding, and I think she would have preferred to stay in hiding and then started doing interviews and none of them worked out particularly well.

Speaker 2

But this is what she say.

Speaker 3

Madame Vice President, Can you give us a sense of your internal polling at the campaign and how that is making or influencing your decisions on what to do over the next nine days.

Speaker 4

So, to be very frank with you, my internal polling is my instinct. I let the campaign people do with all that other stuff, and I am responding to what I'm seeing. I mean, just two nights ago we had thirty thousand people show up. I think it was actually more than thirty thousand people with an incredible amount of enthusiasm. If you see the people are showing up last night every event that we do, and the fly is one of energy and excitement.

Speaker 1

Anytime over the years, I would talk to a candidate that was way down in the polls, even if they're down fifteen sean, I'm telling you the polls are off.

Speaker 2

You should see the crowds, the crowds are huge. They're massive, people showing up everywhere. It's unbelievable.

Speaker 1

And I hear it. I'm like, pay attention to the polls. I mean, polling can be off. It's not a perfect science in any way. It's an art. And however, polls, especially the aggregate polls, and this is where I look to the real clear politics averages. Usually, if they start telling the same story, or one story emerges, and you have a couple of outliers, you kick out the outliers and you look at the average. They usually end up being somewhat accurate, close to accurate. I mean they can

be completely off. Twenty twenty two was supposed to be a red wave that never materialized. We do have, for example, some data out today that Trump is leading in all New York swing state districts, and this is for Congress districts that Biden even carried in twenty twenty. That's important when it comes to the balance of power in the House of Representatives. We have this poll and it is a bit of an outlier, but you know it's worth

talking about. A stunning survey enter New Hampshire indicating Donald Trump has a narrow fifty point two to forty nine point eight lead there. I'm not exactly sure if that's accurate. I wouldn't count on it. More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and early indications are is that the early voting has dramatically shifted in Republicans' favors. In other words, the message has gone out that Republicans

got to bank their vote. On the other side, We've got that Democratic turnout as of now compared to four years ago is down significant and lee in all seven swing states according to the data that I'm getting every single day. Anyway, here to help us sort through all of this, Mark Penn is with us, the chairman of the of the Harris Pole himself former advisor and polster for Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Speaker 2

Sir, har are you welcome back.

Speaker 3

I'm good, Thank you.

Speaker 2

Let me start with this.

Speaker 1

Let's get your general overview of where you see the polling now, because I can look at the real clear politics average twenty twenty versus twenty twenty four, and around this time in twenty twenty, Joe Biden was up by four right now in the battlegrounds, and Trump is now up by one. That's almost a neck game of five points the real clear average at this point in twenty twenty, Joe Biden was up by seven point eight nationally, and now Trump is up by zero point one. That's a

seven point nine percentage point swing on favorability ratings. Joe Biden had a nineteen point six advantage, Kamala has a two point six advantage. That's a net increased for Trump of seventeen. That to me is significant because it's an our aggregate of all the polling and less polling methodology has changed so significantly since twenty twenty, which I doubt well.

Speaker 3

I mean, let me react to both of those things first, comparing it to where Joe Biden was and so forth. I don't know that that to me is the most is the most relevant comparison. Obviously, you know, obviously the polls were fundamentally different in both those I do think some of the polls now have more Republicans than Democrats.

They've tried to compensate for that in some way. To me, the more relevant thing is I think of I think of polls as X rays, right, and so you can only take snapshots in time, and you look for things that might be growing, and it's very clear to me that even in those polls. But let's say CBS shows Harris by one, well, you have to dig to find that their last poll was Harris by three. And out of the five last national polls, they all closed for

Trump two to four points. And so consequently, I hate to use the word momentum in the area, but I'd certainly say there's been Trump creep forward that is really unmistakable since maybe October tenth to today. And I think the second point you raise is that when you go back to twenty sixteen, the voters hated both candidates, both Hillary, and both both Hillary and Trump had like sixty five

percent negatives. That's actually not true today. They actually like Trump as well, very close, as you said, some polls even slightly better. His favorable has been coming up forty seven forty eight, so that actually, instead of hating both candidates, half the country likes one, the other half the country likes the other, and there's only three or four percent here who hate them both. So it's a very different situation. And then we've seen in the last couple of elections, what do.

Speaker 1

You glean from and I'm sure you're seeing the same numbers I'm saying from early voting numbers in the swing states based on party affiliation. Because there had been a reluctance and resistance of Republicans to vote early and vote by mail, Republicans have made an effort to overcome that, and I think it's paying off for them because that would then free up money to target lower propensity voters.

Speaker 3

Right well, and this is why I love to be on radio, so I can explain this for a second. So what I realized is that the Democrats Office realizes the math of voting votes that are in the bank versus votes that are supposed to show up on election day. So it's one hundred one hundred voters and fifty of them vote by mail, and it's evenly distributed. You have fifty votes in the bank, but of that second fifty,

only forty five percent show at the polls. Their kid gets sick, the weather's bad, the card breaks down, right, And so if they're evenly distributed, it doesn't matter like ninety seven and a half to ninety seven and a half. But if they are mostly Republicans, then mostly Republicans get dinged on election day, and I think Republicans had been

losing one to two points. I think in the trends that you're seeing now, they indicate one Republican enthusiasm and two neutralizing that advantage that the Democrats I think had snuck into the system that nobody really noticed. Because votes in the bank are votes you can that are one hundred percent in the bank, and so I think that's a good sign for Republican pickups here.

Speaker 1

What do you make of you when you keep seeing polls sixty in the sixties, just up as high as seventy nine percent of Americans polled say America is going in the wrong direction?

Speaker 2

How does that?

Speaker 1

How does that play out for the party in power, which is Kamala Harris.

Speaker 3

Now, Well, usually the party of power, you know, if you have a forty percent job approval, and I think Biden's down to thirty nine, usually though they're they're out. And usually those undecided voters who can't decide on the candidate do know whether they think the direction of the country is right or wrong. I think that the whole trick of the Harris campaign here has been to say I'm not the incumbent, that he's the incumbent, and has she gotten away with that? Well, you know, she's gotten

away with it with some voters. She's you know, anyone. These polls, even after the Trump shift, I think are still are still well within the margin of error. But her whole campaign, you know, she doesn't mention the words shoe Biden, and you are not going to see her and Joe Biden.

Speaker 1

Oh no, there's a report out today the Biden people have been begging to get on of the campaign trail and they're icing them out.

Speaker 3

Yeah, they'll be sending they'll be sending to New York, so they will.

Speaker 2

They probably send me out before they've sent him out.

Speaker 3

Yes, that is not happening.

Speaker 2

No, that's not happening.

Speaker 1

Let's talk about the Democrat's choice for and look, I can go back to Barry Goldwater. Every Republican presidential candidate has been called a fascist or Nazi all the way through Donald Trump. However, it seems the decide, the decision by the Harris campaign has been to double triple, quadruple down with intense anger that Donald Trump is a fascist,

a Nazi, eracist, et cetera. To me, it might be the worst closing argument I've ever heard in a campaign versus Donald Trump seems to be subtening on the theme of they broke it, Donald Trump will fix it, and are you better off than you were four years ago? And then you know, I don't think that Kamala Harris can answer that question successfully because I don't think there's much he can point to in terms of, you know, where we're better off.

Speaker 3

Well. I was intrigued yesterday that after all the years of using one slogan, it actually introduced. I think it's He'll fix it, which was a very intriguing closing theme and slogan. I thought there are two. I saw two closing abs really really well done. Look, I think the Harris camp is looking at that favorable chart that we just talked about, which is Trump is at record favorability.

I mean, you know, he survived assassination attempts, he's been going out there at McDonald's, he's been trying to show a more human side of him, and they are frustrated as heck over there, so they're going to throw the kitchen sink at him. They're closing winning strategy here, they believe is to basically knock down that favorable A couple of points because hers has been going down, throw the kitchen, sinking him with everything they've got and see if it works.

I mean, that's clearly what they're going to do.

Speaker 1

All right, quick break right back more with Mark Penn. He's the former advisor pollster to Bill and Hillary Clinton, chairman of the Harris Pole. How to continue now with Mark Penn. He is the chairman of the Harris Pole, former advisor. By the way, I'm polster for Bill and Hillary Clinton. I saw an ex post of yours pulling your opponent of fascist when slipping in the polls? Is ear a responsible after two assassination attempts. He can't complain

about January sixth and then recreate it. It's wrong for the campaign and wrong for the country. I would add one other thing, And nobody really talked about it this campaign, but me as Kamala Harris did tweet out that bail fund in the Summer of Love after four days after Minneapolis police precinct was burned to the ground, and she did go on CBS and say that the rioters in the summer of twenty twenty won't stop, they shouldn't stop, and she wouldn't stop supporting them, and we had five

hundred and seventy four riots, dozens of dead Americans, thousands of injured cops, and billions of property damage that never became as all these people on the left to talk about insurrection, well, she's got her own. She's never had to answer for her own positions on this, which to me is part of the narrative. I always put out the journalism in America's dead, well, you.

Speaker 3

Know, looks particularly as a Jewish person and many twos and there. We do not like it when any campaign uses the fastest word. I mean, it's just something we think it should not be in their vocabulary. It is totally inappropriated. The means what actually happened to six million twos? And whether you know an attack or show that they're

occasionally Trump use it. Please, no campaign, please don't use this word, you know, because it refers to something so much more horrible than we can even conceive any.

Speaker 1

Well, fascism and evil or if you're comparing somebody to Stalin and Hitler and Mussolini, you are compared that you're saying they're evil and people that are deranged here that they're evil, well they not. Can you draw a conclusion that it might inspire them to take out evil thinking they're doing good.

Speaker 2

All right, Now, I.

Speaker 1

Got the hard question for you. You know what it is, how does this end? You know, it's the question that your best guess.

Speaker 3

Look, I gave a speech recently which I said, you're going to learn absolutely nothing because I all know you're going to ask me the question of who's going to win. And then I have a friend of mine he keeps saying, well, if you had to get the book. And I wrote an article about a week ago in the Law Street Journal. I said, look, things seem to be more favorable to Trump because ultimately, on the big issues of the day, he is still maintaining a lead. It's not outside the

margin of era. She's still to come back. She's doing very well with women. You're going to have to look at the how the gender gap comes out, because this could be well well be the battle of the sex this year in terms of the outcome of the election. But I do think that he's shown momentum, he's shown an increase in favorable he's held on to the major issues. You know, I'm not going to say it's his to lose, but I think he's he's come a long way in the last in the last two weeks, and I think

he's got the edge. I think that's the way I would read it.

Speaker 1

All right, he's the chairman of the Harris Poll, former poster for Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton. Well you you were the poster for both of them, right, yes, I will and anyway, Mark Penn, we appreciate your analysis, and I'm glad for once I don't have to ask your hard questions, because I feel like we need the democratic poster.

Speaker 2

I always have to ask you the harder question. You appreciate your talking points.

Speaker 3

I give you answers.

Speaker 2

No, you do, you give honest answers.

Speaker 1

Whoever, We appreciate that about you anyway, Mark Penn, thank you, sir. Glad you're with us eight hundred nine four one, showing us on number if you want to be a part of the program. Now that we made some money for our sponsors, let's go back to making the liberals crazy.

Speaker 2

The hand man is back on the radio right now, a.

Speaker 1

Right twenty five now to the top of the hour, eight hundred and nine four one, sean our number. If you want to be a part of the program, we'll get to your calls in mere moments. Well, here we are. One week from today will be election eve in America. It's been four long years, and I hope you all have the sense of urgency that I have. I voted

yesterday in my free state of Florida. And if you want information about registering in your state, some states have same day voter even election day registration, you can go to Hannity dot com and you'll find out when early voting starts and stops in your state while you're there. As a public service, the Kamala files her in her own words, the Walls files him and his own words, things that the mainstream state run media mob have ignored

the entire campaign. But it's not surprising, is it. Look this a week from today will be on the eve of this election. No matter what happens, we know that the support of you, the American people, means so much. Right now to the people of Israel, we saw what happened on Friday night, Israel rightly retaliating against the hundreds of ballistic missiles or ran fired at them. Now we have seen a forefront war emerge in the Holy Land. We've all seen an alarming rise of radical anti Semitism.

We've seen it in Washington, d C. Even in the halls of Congress, on college campuses all across the country. We've seen it worldwide. It's pretty scary. We have one hundred, you have tens and tens of thousands of Israelis. They have been displaced from their homes, they have lost loved ones, and they're in the fight for their very survival. And that's where the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews comes in.

They've been around for forty years and since October seventh, twenty three, have been on the ground helping those people that have displaced, those people that need food and housing and medicines and supplies because they're desperate. And they're helping provide all of this for people in their worst time of need. And we hope you'll join us in standing with Israel, standing with the Jewish people. It has never been more necessary than now. Now. You can support this

great operation that they have. Go to support i f CJ oneword dot org, support IFCJ dot org or call eight eight eight foury at eight i f c J. That's eight eight eight four eight eight I f CJ today. And I don't think you'll regret it. Did you see The View today at all? Somebody sent me a clip of this, Linda, Mika Brazinski and I have nothing against

liberal Joe and Meka, nothing at all. I used to know, we used to know liberal Joe when he was a conservative Joe, and liberal Joe is now you know, hardcore radical left, and which is fine. It's a free country. You can believe whatever you want. But the left in this country's melting down. Anyway, what a team. Mika joined up with the ladies of that hard hitting news show, The View, and I thought it was interesting when Rogan started out his interview with Donald Trump. It went on

for three long hours. I still haven't finished it, but I did listen to quite a bit of it. He brought up the fact, oh, the ladies of The View in Oprah Winfrey, they used to love you, Now they hate you. Now you're a nazi. Now you're a fascist, now you're a racist, all of these things. Anyway, Mika on the View, you know, is tearing up. I mean, this is how panic the left is in this country.

Speaker 5

Listen, this is the descent into fascism if we so choose normalizing. January sixth it's a day of love. It's a day of love. I'll say it again and again and again, normalizing enemy from within. I'll say it again and again. I'll say it again and again until you get tired of it, until it's not so funny anymore, or you think he doesn't mean it, until you realize he does mean it, and it's too late saying these strict abortion bands are a beautiful thing? Are you kidding me?

We got to wake up. And here's the good news. Because I come with such dire warnings, and I mean them from the b one of my heart, as a daughter of refugees who came here escaping war, came here for America to be a part of a democracy, to be a part of building something beautiful where they could be free. I'm telling you the good news is that I believe women will be the beacon in this election.

Speaker 1

Wow, by the way, it's just a flat out lie about Trump and strict abortion bands. Abortions. You know, the issue of abortions being decided by the states. State of Ohio, red state, fairly liberal decision. I voted on an abortion band amendment in Florida yesterday. When I went to the polls in my free state of Florida. And I'm just telling you, just outright lying. And but you know, what do you say about five hundred and seventy four riots?

And you know, can you imagine if Donald Trump we had dozens of dead Americans, we had billions in property, image, we had cops pelted with bricks, rocks, bottles, Molotov cocktails, and imagine Donald Trump said they're not going to stop, and they shouldn't stop, and I'm not going to stop supporting them. Oh sounds like the Summer of Love went awry. Uh, let us say hi to our busy phones. Tina in the United Socialist Utopia of California, Tina, how are you glad.

Speaker 2

You called so?

Speaker 6

Thank you, Sean and you yes, you took the words right out of my mouth. I was going to say, I'm in the horrible stayed governed by Governor Muska, but we'll leave it at that. Thank you for all that you do. You're the reason I go to bed so late every night, because I cannot go to bed until I've seen your show. Huge fan, I'll make it quick.

Speaker 1

Thank you I have do you think do you think Governor Knewsom I've often wondered this. I know he has a really radical legislature, but over time, I've just thought there's no way he believes all this.

Speaker 2

But he does.

Speaker 1

I've just come to the conclusion he really believes in these positions that he takes, and it's kind of shocking. You know, he looks like a normal guy. He can be personable in real life, but I guess he's a true believer. That's the only thing I can conclude correct.

Speaker 6

Along with the rest of his demonic administration. In my opinion, I truly believe they.

Speaker 1

I wouldn't call them demonic, let's say very misguided, him radical, but go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, yes, okay, I believe it at that, Thank you, Sean. I do have a question. I know you're just addressed with another caller that everybody's asking you what you think of the outcome. Of course, nobody had the glass ball. However, based on the overwhelming polling that President Trump is showing, do you think that this might be a win by the popular vote?

Speaker 1

You know, to me, that's just not important. We have an elector system. However, I do think the bigger if Donald Trump can win this election and win with a big mandate, I think it would be very reassuring for the country and it would be a lot better result. And I think that the country a mandate win election would be ideal. If he ever won the popular vote, that would be you know, fantastic. You know, However, it's

not where my focus is. My focus is on expressing to the best of my ability, and it will be my focus all week. The urgency that every American needs to have if you don't want these extreme radical policies to be implemented. Because everything Kamala said that we have in the Kamalo files on hannady dot com and on hannitymedia, social media's.

Speaker 2

It's what she really believes.

Speaker 1

And that part is the scary part to me, and the fact that nobody's challenged her on it and she's gotten the pass the whole time. Is it is it's not even malpractice. It is it is beyond malpractice. It is just outright propaganda, and it's and they and journalism's dead. I said it in seven and o eight. I didn't know how right I'd be, but it really is. I'm going to move along. Tina in California, listen, God bless you, though, hang in there. I don't know why you're still out there.

There are a lot of free stage you can move to, you know. Anyway, let's get back to our phones. Let's say hi to Don in Iowa. Hey, Don, how are you glad you called hi?

Speaker 7

Sean, thank you for taking my call. I'm a truck driver. I'm out here heading up to a nuclear power plant right now as we speach.

Speaker 1

Oh wow, and be careful. I hope there's no radiation up there, by the way. Thanks to all our truckers, because every time you go to a store and the shelves are packed, you can thank a trucker in part for that being for that happening. You can thank farmers, you can thank ranchers, all you guys, you know, keep the economy going the way it's going, although it could be better if things could be cheaper and you guys

could be making more money. Trucking has experienced a recession the longest it's ever been.

Speaker 7

Yes, for sure, And thank you Sean, because we all listen to you going down the road where cat You've got a captive audience while we're out here, and I wear my green mega hat out in public and people comment to me all day long. And it's it's every truck driver is let's let's pray for this next election. And I can't agree with them more. Well, yeah, you know, truck drivers are an underperforming voting block. And that's what I'm calling for, is to remind truck drivers that, yeah,

we might win this election. It might happen with or without us, but with us, it's it's it's almost a sure thing. There's millions of truck drivers that won't make it home for the fifth to make the vote. So get in and bank your votes when you get home on your next time off, get home, thank your vote, get it out there, and this way here you're sure your vote counts.

Speaker 1

And I think that's great advice. And I would predict within a year that Donald Trump will have the price of diesel and gasoling down significantly, and that'll help your business and that'll help all of us. That'll lower prices at every store we go to. So I think it's in everybody's best interest. Yeah, I think for every trucker

I'm going to add to the group. If you're a hunter, if you believe in the Second Amendment, gun owner, if if you're if you're a Christian and you don't like, you know, states like California, Minnesota that would have gender affirming care for minors without parental consent, I would consider voting very seriously or that you know, miners can get an abortion you know, even with no restrictions at all in many states like California, like Minnesota, even in month seven,

eight and nine, to ignore those issues. To me, he is malpracticed. And there was a report that you know, thirty million Christians aren't going to be voting in this election, and ten million gun owners and hunters are not going to be voting in this election.

Speaker 2

That's insane.

Speaker 1

They're voting against their own freedoms and their own best interest in my opinion.

Speaker 7

But anyway, Terry, don't the million.

Speaker 1

Yeah, well, they're voting for Trump in big numbers. There was a poll out last week.

Speaker 7

Absolutely. And guys, if you're not sure where you're going to be, my son just got some orders to Italy. He's in the Navy, by the way, and he got over to Italy last minute. I said, get your butt down and bank your vote then, you know, before you leave you And so he's going to do that. And I've got a grandson in I've got a niece, who, by the way, just got a commission in the army. She's going to be a doctor. And you know, I can't encourage them enough. You know, listen to Sean and

get your votes in and get him in early. And if we happen to push Trump to a mandate to where you know, you know, like he says, make it too big to rape. Don't take anything for granted.

Speaker 2

In this election.

Speaker 1

I appreciate you called my friend, and I appreciate what you do every day. God bless you. Stay safe on the road. It's not an easy job at all. And we're grateful for all you guys out there. We really are. Eight hundred ninety four one, Shawn is a number if you want to be a part of the program. Joe Lex is in Florida, my free my home state, my free state of Florida. What's going on, Joe Lex? And glad you called, sir?

Speaker 8

Yes, how you doing this a great obviousity just to speak to you short handy, what a wonderful day is?

Speaker 3

Thank you very much, but.

Speaker 2

Just even taking up oh, thank you? What's going on?

Speaker 3

Yes?

Speaker 8

Well, I'm I'm Blackcasian emergance out of greata of Florida. And it's a lot of things that I know people were saying because you know, as me learning about the Democrat operation, just learning about just about what a lisson is and then you begin to understand about who runs the media. And it's just been a lot of things about that was not right about Trump, but that was just you know, they just wanted to say just to put a lot of girt on them. But that's we dealt.

Speaker 1

With that right there.

Speaker 8

But we understand what he's doing and what he's about to do with America, especially with the youth vote that between eighteen and twenty five, it's a lot of us that we are going to vote for him. But it's just they just seem more information about what's going on and what Trump's gonna be doing in office outside of policy.

Speaker 1

But legislators, well I gotta tell you right now, everybody, and we talk a lot about demographics, and we have spoken about a lot of this election season. Everybody wants lower prices at the supermarket. You want lower prices when you gas up your car, your cure, whatever you're driving. Everybody believes in secure borders. Everybody believes in law and order, and they want their town safe and secure, so they can all pursue happiness. Everyone would like a better educational system.

And I think America, you know, understands that Kamala and Joe have made the world left safe and secure. And there's a story today China is in an outright panic over the idea of a second Trump term. I don't think China or Russia or Iran fear Kamala Harris. They fear Donald Trump. I Ranian assassination squads are here to kill Donald Trump. It is scary. These are very very We need strength. We don't need a Mama La. We need strength, and that will keep the world a better

or peaceful place because peace drew strength actually works. But anyway, my friend, God bless you and we appreciate you. You calling in banking your vote. Great idea. That's gonna wrap things up. But today we do have some senate candidates. It looks like Eric Cobdy in Wisconsin has a chance of taking a win over Tammy Baldwin. We'll check in with him, Tim sh he also will join us. Sam Brown Old Cogan, he was at the rally of Madison Square Garden.

Speaker 2

He'll join us. Tommy LARRYN.

Speaker 1

Clay Travis, John Solomon, Joe Kancha Hyne's previous say you DVR Hannity nine Eastern Tonight on Fox, as we are just nine days till official election day, although if there's voting in America, it's Election Day. See you tonight, back here tomorrow. Thank you for making this show possible.

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