Latest Polls Update - October 30th, Hour 3 - podcast episode cover

Latest Polls Update - October 30th, Hour 3

Oct 31, 202431 min
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Episode description

 Pollsters Matt Towery, of Insider Advantage and Robert Cahaly, of the Trafalgar Group who co-host Polling Plus together, go over their latest polls ahead of the election. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Say right here for our final news roundup and information overload. All right, News rounding Up and Information Overload hour toll free are numbers eight hundred and ninety four one sean. If you want to be a part of the program before we get started in our final hour, here a word from your President, Joseph Biden.

Speaker 2

Or Puerto Rico where I'm in my home state of Delaware. They're good, decent, honorable people. The only garbage I see flowing down there is just supporters. His demonizational scene is unconstable, and it's not.

Speaker 1

American only, so piece, we are all pieces of garbage. You're a deemable, deplorables, bitter Americans that cling to God and guns and our Bibles and religion. At least we know what they really think of us. And if you're not that, then you're a nazi. If you're not that, you're a fascist. If you're not that, you're a racist. If you're not that, you know, just think of whatever name,

horrible name they can call you. And that's pretty much what democrats think of anybody that dares to disagree with them. We have spent a lot of time on this program looking at polls, especially in the swing States, and we have the latest polling data, and we have our posters Matt Towery Insider Advantage, Robert K. Haley, the Trafalgar Group. Great to have you both back, and guys, thanks for

being with us. Do you think, Matt Towery that this garbage comment is going to have any impact on this race?

Speaker 3

I do in this sense, Sean. I think it knocked the Democrats off of their talking points from the rally in which they took the joke from a comedian who had really nothing to do with Trump other the fact that he was on the stage during the rally, on the.

Speaker 1

Stage like two and a half hours before Trump, maybe three hours, I don't.

Speaker 3

Know exactly, but that had been turned into a New York Times on Monday morning head headlines about Nazi, Sashism, disgrace, racist. You know, we could see what the playbook was going to be, and then along comes Joe Bot with this garbage come in and it knocks them off of their entire plan. I think it's a stupid plan about I I don't understand where the Democrats think that they're picking

up votes by calling Donald Trump a Nazi. I mean, it does It's alls on deaf ears with most people, but that having even said it took them off of that. Now they're on different defense again in very very difficult territory because they have now given Trump and his base another reason to turn out as hard as they can because they basically said that forty let's say, basically forty five to forty seven percent of the nation are garbage

and people are talking about it. I mean, it's the talk of the town, so to speak around the country today.

Speaker 1

Let me ask you both this and Robert will give you the first crack of this now. Earlier today, Kamalo gave a big quote unity speech. He's going to unify the country whether you vote for her or not. She was given an opportunity to push back and say that Joe Biden shouldn't have said this, and this is her answer.

Speaker 4

He sympathized with any votes that you do fail offended by or insulted by the garbage shomings.

Speaker 5

I am running for president of the United States. I will be traveling to three states today to do what I have been doing throughout, which is talking with the American people about the fact that first of all, I get it in terms of the concerns they have about challenges like the price of groceries.

Speaker 1

Oh so she doesn't you know I have three rallies today. Wow, he doesn't want it now. She also dodged the question about her running mate Tim Walls comparing Trump's Madison Square Garden rally to the nineteen thirty nine Nazi rally, which it obviously was not. And again he won't answer, and she won't stop her surrogates, her running mate, her supporters for making these Nazi fast comments, racist comments that they keep making.

Speaker 4

I talked to Governor Walls yesterday. He compared Trump's.

Speaker 6

Rally on Sunday to that of one of the Nazi rallies in the thirties at Madison Square Gardens.

Speaker 4

Do you compare that? Do you find that a similar comparison.

Speaker 7

Listen, this election is in seven days, and I think the American people have a very clear choice. And on the one hand, you have Donald Trump, who is constantly fanning the flames of division and hate, who is trying to have the American people point their fingers at each other, or my leadership, which is founded on a lived and experience.

Speaker 1

All right, But in other words, she's not going to answer, He answers as it relates to Biden's comments. I have three rallies today, she answers on Tim Walls, you know, making the Nazi analogy election in seven days, she herself is called Donald Trump supporters fascist. Does any of this impact the American people? Robert Kahley, Well, first.

Speaker 6

Of all, I'll give her credit. I think that was smart. If she had engaged, then then the story would be what she would say, like, you know, I don't think they're they're they're at trash and stuff like that. So I think it was smart on her to keep some message just from there. But really this comment, I mean, you've got to wonder somewhere, deepen, deepen, Joe bidens mine, is he actually trying to help her win because there was a lot of cleaning up to do acts comedians

and this just wiped that away. I mean, he just wiped that away and it become the new deplorable, And I mean I can expect that Trump's sports will start acting like that trash can character on Sesme Street before it'saul said and done, and you know, making a thing out of being trashed. But it really just seems like such a silly comment, and it makes sense that she's trying not to engage.

Speaker 1

But the difference is this was a comedian and I Donald Trump gave a like a three minute answer last night on this knew not thing about it, never heard it, you know, was disgusted by it. I couldn't have said enough bad things about it, and then talked about his history with the people of Puerto Rico and how much he loves the people of Puerto Rico and what he what he did as president for the people of Puerto Rico.

So I mean there's there's such a difference. They feign this phony outrage, but go ahead, Robert Finish.

Speaker 6

Absolutely no, You're right, he did a great job of cleaning it up. That's absolutely the case. But this actually just this is like a wave that watched over it, and that that's just yesterday's news. I mean this is really you know, we talked about the news sock on how the next outrageous thing eras is the last outrageous thing, and the Trump thing was like minimum on the scale about rage, and this is at the top. I mean, this is equal to deplorable.

Speaker 7

Uh.

Speaker 6

I think it is huge and it is just going to motivate the Trump's supporters and Like I said, I expect to see garbage theme signs and people wearing trash bags and everything else in the next week. But it has literally given them another rally froct and just it is exactly the way if it could have been stored but Britain, for the Trump campaign to close with something dimotivational, it was a huge misstep and I almost wondered to buyden do it on purpose.

Speaker 1

Now, both Insider Advantage Matt Towery's polling organization and Trufalgar Robert Halley's pulling organization ranked among the top posters in both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. So the big question I have is based on your polling and what you see in the aggregate on RealClearPolitics dot com. Matt Towery, where is the race today?

Speaker 3

Okay, So here's what we have to do. We have to decide if the other posters have adjusted their polling to be more in line with Robert and myself for presidential cycles or not. If they have not, and you have the polls that we have and the averages and the Real Queer Politics average, Trump normally outperforms all of those polls by two or three points in each of these states, all the states than the most that were

the case. Then you're looking at a Trump victory and perhaps winning several of the battleground states that they don't expect them to win right now. Necessarily, obviously, either Pennsylvania or Michigan is necessary from the win. Now if you if you believe that they have adjusted and that they're trying to get in line and capture that shot from voter, then it's a neck and neck race because Robert and I have almost every one of these states at one point.

At the most, Georgia is gonna be at exceptional. Let me just say about Georgia. The African American turnout in Georgia has been but nominally disappointing to the Democrats. It is over there. They're at twenty six percent. They needed to be at twenty nine percent. Today. They are even running ad sean that tell black voters that if they don't vote, their voting records can be disclosed to their employer and other individuals. I'm not kidding.

Speaker 8

That's how good I know you're not kidding.

Speaker 1

We talked about it yesterday about this outside group running on this AD. I didn't know it was Orgia but they're running it well that I didn't know it was in Georgia, Philly, Detroit and other places around the country.

Speaker 8

But what about this factor factory.

Speaker 1

One more thing that is a little outside of your area of expertise, and that is early voting, which you mentioned in Georgia, because we're seeing similar trends in every battleground state.

Speaker 3

Well, for me, I have to tell you, Georgia's been my bill whether through these presidential races in twenty sixteen, and I can't believe in my mind that the African American vote, the other base vote for the Democrats is so lethargic in Georgia, but somehow it's just on fire in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and other states. It's a disconnect. So I have to believe that the early vote that we're seeing, which Republicans.

Speaker 1

Or what we're seeing in Georgia, we're seeing in all these battle grounds, because I'm seeing those numbers.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Well, Pennsylvania's a little problematic for the Republicans because the Democrats requested a whole lot more mail in ballots, and by the way, that's the only way you vote early in Pennsylvania. You can carry it to a place and put in a little box. But it's all considered mail in voting, so that means a lot of the vote Pennsylvania is gonna be same day election voting. I think all of these trends would very good for Donald Trump. You know, we've been burned Robert and I making predictions,

but I can say the trend line right now. Either the other posters have come way up and they've got their game together and it's gonna be Niptuck, or Robert and I are right again, they're going to be off again. Trump probably wins by bigger margins that we're talking about in our polls.

Speaker 6

Same question, Robert, I feel right now that everything except for Nevada in Wisconsin, I feel like are very strong Trump. And again it goes back to just what Matt said. If the other guys have adjusted their polling, and this is a neck and neck race, If they haven't, this may very well be a race that Trump gets more than the electoral votes he needs. Wisconsin. Their same day voter registration means that poeling is extremely difficult of everyone

who registers. From twenty twenty two, twenty three and twenty four, fifty one percent registered on election day of twenty twenty two, So we have no idea how many people can register and vote on election day. So it's a very difficult state to poll. Nevada the same token with the Union vote and the way they put them on buses and everything on the Saturday before the election. You can see last minute changes there, but the other places look very stable.

And this lack of enthusiasm and the African American vote we're seeing at other places to these ads threatening people significantly tell you that they're very worried about that and the attention that's been paid there. And if they don't get what they need with African American vote, they don't get what they need with Hispanic vote. This election is not going to be one.

Speaker 1

Do you both see that the tread line is demographically in all seven states?

Speaker 8

Robert, you go first the.

Speaker 6

Trend lines among the Hispanics I see across all the states, certainly, and maybe even more so in Nevada than any other states. Uh, you know, it's hard to beat that it's a female machine, but the Hispanic vote is very strong and there's not a lot of African American there, but we see it everywhere with the African American males and the and the being for Trump, and then the lack of enthusiasm and the others, and so these trends laws are very strong for Trump.

Speaker 7

Uh.

Speaker 6

There are some you know on females on the gen Z that are very energized for Harris, but the males in gen Z are almost exactly off. It's the strongest gender gap of all of them. And so the trend lines look very good for Trump across the board, but cutting into these minorities is devastating to the Democrats.

Speaker 8

Matt will give you the last word.

Speaker 3

I agree with Robert and all of that. We collaborate, as you know, and have a podcast together Pulling Plus where you can listen to hear what we have to say in detail. But the one trend line that has concerned me with regard to Trump has always been the

senior voters. And there are some of the most pro abortions and some of the most anti Trump individuals are men and more than that, women over the age of seventy who feel like they've made enough money to be okay, don't care about inflation, view themselves as being the eLink because somehow that you know they've live in a halfway decent house and member of some chromy country club. But they view themselves as being elitists and intellectual and they

are very intense in they're voting. And so that's a countervailing force that the Trump teams having to get over because they could never quite get these folks on boards.

Speaker 1

But right people have to worry about the red wave in twenty two never materializing.

Speaker 3

I think that this is a different situation, and they explain why very quick quick. In a off year, in a midterm election, the turnout is a manufacturer one. It is based on what these various campaigns do and how much money is spent, and that can be a variable no one can control or predict. In a presidential year, with Donald Trump and Harris or whomever, you know it's

going to be a full turnout. And you also know that there are a lot of people who don't want to say they're voting for Donald Trump for the very reason we talked about at the beginning of this. There's term garbage there, the term races. They're afraid to be on a list, and Robert and I try to get our information a little more anonymously so they don't feel so much on the spot, and that's why we've been a little better at getting this stuff. But even we

can't capture all the Trump votes. And no, an election presidential election year is not like a midterm election.

Speaker 1

All right, Matt Towery and Robert Cahley, thank you both. Eight hundred and nine to four one seawan or number if you want to be a part of the program II twenty five now to the top of the hour, toll free. Our number is eight hundred and nine foot one sean if you want to be a part of the program. My interview Part one of with President Trump from yesterday, we're going to air that in a second. Part two of that interview will air on Hannity tonight on the Fox News Channel.

Speaker 8

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Speaker 1

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Speaker 8

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Speaker 8

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Speaker 8

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Speaker 1

It's one word, Simplysafe dot com slash Hannity that's simply simplisafe dot com slash Hannity because there's no safe like simply safe. Yesterday morning, I sat down with President Trump in Florida, mar A Lago and interviewed him. We ran part one last night. We had so much news between homlos final speech as they declared it, and of course being called garbage by Joe Biden or anybody that supports Donald Trump, so we broke the interview into two parts.

Part two will air tonight, but I think it's worth playing here because we covered a lot of ground. And this is my interview with President Trumps, the President, Thank you.

Speaker 9

This will be one week from today's election day, last interview I will ever have with you as a candidate. I'm sure you're probably not thinking about that yet.

Speaker 10

Well not really, but it's a little bit sad. We've been together a long time as a candidate.

Speaker 4

Now we can be.

Speaker 10

Together maybe toward making America great again.

Speaker 4

Because we have to do that.

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 4

It is amazing one week to go. How are you feeling about the race. I think we're leading in every state, every swing state.

Speaker 10

I think we're even picking up maybe some states that traditionally don't go Republican. People want to see change. They don't want to have borders where murderers are being released in to our country and many others, drug dealers, where jails are being emptied out into our country. I happen to think it's the biggest issue. I think inflation would be second of horrible inflation and economy. I mean, the economy went bad because of inflation. We had no inflation whatsoever.

We had a great economy, maybe the best ever. I think, the best economy anyone's ever had. And when you see what's happened to our country, it's very sad. But when you see what they're allowing to come into our country and kill people. I've just randomly just killed so many people. Young girls are dying left and right. We can't let this happen. I think it's the most important issue. And we're talking about by the thousands. They're coming in by

the hundreds of thousands and even the millions. And so they have twenty one million people released into our country through a ridiculous open border policy.

Speaker 4

Of Kamala. You have to blame her.

Speaker 10

Because she was put in charge of the border by Biden, who went to sleep at four o'clock, and she's done a horrible job. And by the way, I think it's very important for listeners to know that the Border Patrol endorsed me powerfully and said she was horrible. They said I was the best ever and that she is the worst ever. So it shouldn't be that much about.

Speaker 9

In her oal worts and this has frustrated me. In the campaign, the media has covered for her, you know, an extension of a press office. She has set in her own words, she wants to decriminalize the illegal immigration, free food, housing, healthcare, education, running mate, legal drivers' licenses for illegals, free taxpayer funded college, free sex change surgeries.

Speaker 10

Correct and defined abilities, and defund the police. Don't forget she was one of the leaders who have defund the police. That means it's in her psyche defunding the police.

Speaker 4

We have to do the opposite. We have to let the police do their job.

Speaker 10

We can't take away their house and their pension and their family and everything else. If they are a little bit more aggressive we have Our country is a crime ridden country. When they go into department stores and they strip the store, they strip the store, and our police are standing out there wanting to do their job. But they're told stand down, don't touch anybody, and they're walking out with refrigerators, and they're walking out with air conditioners, and there's hundreds of They.

Speaker 9

Let them walk away as long as it's under one thousand dollars.

Speaker 4

Yeah, yeah, well that was her policy.

Speaker 10

Under anything under nine hundred and fifty dollars, you don't prosecute. But really it's much worse. They don't prosecute anyway. The only ones they go after is me, people like me. They go after, Catholics they go after, and evangelicals will be next. This is a horrible group of people. These are very dangerous people.

Speaker 9

Or they will use limited resources to look into moms and dads at school board meetings as potential domestic terrests. We're now with the final week of this campaign. We have two very very different closing arguments that have emerged. Kamala's closing argument her her surrogates Nazi, fascist, racist Stalin Hitler, Mussolini, and I thought this was supposed to be the campaign of joy, So doesn't seem very joyful to me.

Speaker 4

What's your reaction to it? They have no joy. They took it away from a man.

Speaker 10

I'm not a fan of Biden obviously, but he had fourteen million votes.

Speaker 4

She got no votes. She was the last, and twenty two people ran.

Speaker 10

She was last. She came in last, never made it to Iowa. They went in and they said, you're.

Speaker 4

Not running anymore. We're taking it away.

Speaker 10

They took it away, and he gave up much more easily than I would have thought he would have. But this is not a campaign of joy for them. It's a campaign of hatred. You know, my father and I mentioned this for the first time yesterday. I was in Pennsylvania and I mentioned it. I said, my father, when I was young, never mentioned the name Hitler. Ever, she was tough on it. Somebody would say, Hitler never mentioned

that name. Nazi, never mentioned, never mentioned that name. And he meant it to And it was a word that you never used, you know, you never use those words in They.

Speaker 4

Accused me of being a Nazi.

Speaker 10

They accused me of being a Hitler type guy or a Hitler lover.

Speaker 4

And I'm not.

Speaker 10

I'm the opposite. They're the ones that are doing They're oppressive. This is like an oppressive machine. And you know they also happen to have the press for whatever reason. But think, think of what they're fighting for. They're fighting for open borders where millions of people can pour into our country. Think of it, millions of who can get elected with that. They're thinking of having men playing in women's sports. You know, it's interesting. I've been a politician now for nine years.

I can't I hate to say I'm a politician. I guess I'm a politician. Nobody's ever come to me, you see, sir, it's really important that we let men play in women's sports, sir. Gender operations all over the place are really important. Nobody ever brought this up up. They bring could you lower taxes, could you do this, could you do that? Could you help me hear my businesses? You know, et cetera, et cetera. They bring up a lot of things, but nobody ever

came to me. So it's really important that we do this. Men should play in women's sports. I think it's got a constituency of about about almost nothing, and yet they do it. Maybe it's because they want to destroy the country, I don't know.

Speaker 9

Or gender affirming care for minors who care without parental consent.

Speaker 10

So a young man leaves for school and goes to school, and the authority takes them over without parental consent, and they do things to him that you don't want to know about. I mean, is this supposed to be America? I don't think so doesn't see. These people are radical people. And let me tell you, she's not a smart person. She's a low IQ individual. I've said it for a long time. She speaks so slowly. Everything's so slow. She

thinks of answers. They ask her a question, she talks about she was grown up with a lawn growing on her front yard. Everything is like crazy. Sixty minutes protects her. Sixty minutes takes out her answer and puts a new answer in because her answer was so bad.

Speaker 4

Could you imagine them doing and I'd love to have them do it for me? Think of it.

Speaker 10

You had sixty minutes CBS. They should lose their license. This isn't just editing. They took out her whole answer, every word, and they put a totally different answer in so that she looked better, because she looked like a very stupid person if they would have left the original answer.

Speaker 4

I mean, I've never even heard of a thing like that. You mentioned your father and you did have I.

Speaker 9

Know the media would like to focus on the comments of one general, But you had about a week or so ago, two hundred former generals, admirals all come out, and.

Speaker 10

Nobody were talking about over three hundred people from the administration, the most respected people.

Speaker 4

I see.

Speaker 10

Even Bill Barr's name was mentioned, and I said, well listen, because he understaid, Look, he understood I did a hell of a good job, and so did everyone. They signed a document over three hundred people. The press will not put it out. I'm so glad you guys, thank you for asking this question. But I had over three hundred of the top people from intelligence, generals, everybody from the administration saying Trump was a great president.

Speaker 4

But the press won't put that out. They just don't.

Speaker 3

Look.

Speaker 10

We have a very, very corrupt and dishonest press. And I think with time it gets better because they're all doing pretty badly.

Speaker 9

If they if they're closing argument and their surrogates are doubled down and tripled down and quadrupled down. I'm nazi Nazi fascist fascists. Think of the environment we're in in Butler, Pennsylvania. You came within a millimeter of being murdered, assassinated.

Speaker 4

We had Trump International.

Speaker 9

You would be assassin in the bushes with an AK forty seven with the scope on it. This is the environment wherein I am told you can confirm if you on or not Ranian hit squads are in this country that want to assassinate you. And you have an entire establishment of the Democratic Party. Kama is not telling them no, she's she herself is using these some of these words.

Tim Walls is using these Nazi analogies. And in light of the environment and what has happened and assassination squads being here, what is your reaction to the fact that they won't stand up morally and say stop with the Nazi fascist garbage and let's argue on the issues of the day, and whoever wins wins.

Speaker 10

They only go after consequential presidents. I'm very consequential. I make China pay. I had Iran ready to make it do they would have done anything. Now they have three hundred and fifty billion dollars. They were broke with me, and I would have been very good around. They had to have one thing, no nuclear weapons. You can have nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are the greatest danger to our country going forward, to the world going forward. It's not

global warming I'm an environmentalist. I do great with the cleanest air, with the cleanest water. But if the ocean rises one eighth of an inch over the next five hundred years, we'll handle that.

Speaker 4

What we don't want is global.

Speaker 10

Warming of the nuclear variety, and that could happen on tomorrow.

Speaker 4

You've created a broad coalition.

Speaker 9

I believe there were Republican Party is now the party of hard working men and women, and the Democratic Party is the party of Hollywood, New York and DC coastal.

Speaker 4

If that so, you have built a very broad.

Speaker 9

Diverse coalition, including Hispanic Americans, African Americans. And by the way, I'll put the numbers up on the screen and we can and show people where they were in those first three years of your presidency, the best growth rate in sixty years, and the people that did best for minorities for America in the US. And you have built this coalition. Anyway, so you have this big event at Madison Square Garden.

Speaker 4

It went on for hours.

Speaker 6

I don't even know.

Speaker 4

If you were there for the whole thing. I don't know what time you got there.

Speaker 9

I was told and made it ware that you had no idea about this comedian who made comments I still have.

Speaker 4

I have no idea who he is.

Speaker 10

Somebody said there was a comedian that joked about Puerto Rico or something, and I have no idea. Who has never saw him, never heard of him, and don't want to hear of him.

Speaker 4

But I have no idea.

Speaker 10

They put a comedian in, which everybody does. You throw comedians in, you don't vet them and go crazy. It's nobody's fault. But somebody said some bad things. Now what they've done is taken somebody that has nothing to do with the party, has nothing to do with us, said something, and they try and make a big deal.

Speaker 4

But I don't know who it is.

Speaker 10

I don't even know who put them in, and I can't imagine it's a big deal. I've done more for Puerto Rico than any president I think that's ever or that's ever been president.

Speaker 4

I when the hurricanes came, I rebuilt.

Speaker 10

I helped them rebuild their electrical system, I helped them rebuild dams and everything else. That place was hit by so many hurricanes it's almost like Hurricane Hurricane Alley.

Speaker 4

I've never seen anything like it.

Speaker 10

And Puerto Ricans loved me because I was the president that stood up for them more than any president. I've had great relationships with Hispanics, but I've had really great relationship with Puerto Rico and people from Puerto Rico. They love every time I go outside, I see somebody from Puerto Rico, they give me a hug and a kiss. I gave them more money. I sent the hospital ship. When they had one of the big hurricanes, they had no hospitals. The hospitals were wiped out. I sent the

big mercy ship. I sent it to Puerto Rico fully equipped. It took care of things. I mean, they loved me in Puerto Rico, and I love them. I was there handing out food. I got in trouble for that too, because we were having fun with a lot of people and growing paper towels to the back.

Speaker 4

They were all having fun everywhere, and the fake news came hold. I was very disrespectful to be throwing towels.

Speaker 10

Now I have unbelievable good relationship with Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rican people.

Speaker 4

Who this comedian was. I have no idea. You wish he wasn't there.

Speaker 10

Yeah, I mean, I don't know if it's a big deal or not, but I don't want anybody making nasty jokes.

Speaker 4

The stupid jokes probably shouldn't have been there.

Speaker 1

Yeah, all right, we'll have more with President Trump coming up tonight's DVR. Hannity nine, Eastern Fox News Channel

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