but why are better spending there ? When are they putting in their real bets ? This is where it gets interesting . Hey , what's up ? Everybody ? Gp13 .
Here Today we're going to be talking about how we weigh certain books in terms of if we're coming at this from a devigging or a steam chasing Actually , maybe more of a devigging standpoint how do we determine who the sharpest book is ? How do we determine which book we should be aligning with when we bet ?
This comes from a discussion I had with some people who were talking about Pinnacle for props .
They were saying Pinnacle is not incredibly sharp for certain props , which I would agree with Fandall might be sharper , but as we move towards college basketball season and these same people were thinking about putting on some straights on Fliff for college basketball , they were wondering , essentially , do you just tail Pinnacle when Pinnacle is off market ?
It's a nuanced question and it's a question that's applicable to any market in sports betting .
I want to basically address what we're looking for when we decide to tail a book , decide to align ourselves with , choose one book , because basically what you're doing , if you have a top-down approach , you're taking information from one book , you're betting it at the other book , you're determining this book .
Book A , the one that you're taking the information from , has better information than book B . That's the whole crux of the trade . That's where the EV is created . The EV is the difference in information between book A and book B , minus the juice . How do we pick our book A ? How do we pick which book we want to tail ? First of all , there is no book A .
There is no one book . That is the be all , end all . There will be always a book that is the sharpest and that's usually going to be a market-making book . We've talked a lot about this , but it's essentially a sports book where they're going to take large bets from sharp customers .
They know who their sharp customers are and they're skilled at using their information to make themselves money , because that is why they take the bets from sharp customers . I do want to highlight this because , as much as I love circa betchris pinnacle , they're not being altruistic in taking bets from sharp customers .
They're taking bets from sharp customers because they believe that they can use that information to make themselves more money . That's the market-making model . We want to find , essentially , books that are using that model , embedding it at other books that are not . However , you have to remember to .
To operate that model you have to have a flow of information coming in . Now , where are so then , this model , the market making books ? They're really just , they're kind of like aggregate of all the sharp betters information , right , but why are better spending there ? When are they putting in , you know , their real bets ? This is where it gets interesting .
So in this discussion of pinnacle it was , you know , early on , a pinnacle opener . If we see a number and pinnacles off market , are we going to take that number and bet , and you know , bet at . We can say bet at flip , but let's , let's , let's even make it a more reasonable book , like a faddle or something . And the answer is it depends .
You should , you have to know how much , how much pinnacle is taking in that situation on that bet . Because you have to think of the flow , the flow of information that's going on behind the scenes , which is coming , the good information is coming from the sharp betters and what are their incentives ? Where are they going to be better ?
Now let's say pinnacle has in a thousand dollar limit on a college basketball side . A side is just a spread bet , right , so it's like a reasonably sized game , and they open it at maybe 500 . They move it up to a thousand . Okay , pinnacles , pinnacles taking a thousand dollars , you might be able to get that bet for like 5K on faddle .
Like and sharp betters have access to faddle , be it through partners or they might have a deal with faddle .
They're sharp , they're sharp betters that like have relationships with books embedded into them for an agreed upon size so that you know they can get a good size , bet down in the book and get their information and not deal with , you know , their partners or their beards or whatever you want to call it .
But like , people have access to a lot of the regulated US books like a lot of sharp betters a lot of syndicates do . It's not . You know , if you're an originator might not be your first choice to move through .
But , like , if faddle is taking five grand and pinnacles taking one grand , just because pinnacles pinnacle doesn't mean that you should be using their information to bet elsewhere . Now , let's say pinnacle has it up their limits . They've gone from five .
Now they're taking like 10 grand , 20 grand on a college basketball side and now this is coming from someone who doesn't bet college basketball , so , like I could be 20 grand on a college basketball side could be crazy . I have no clue . But now , all of a sudden , pinnacle is up their limits . It's getting closer to game time .
They're taking , you know , 10 or 20 and you look over a faddle and they're still taking five . That's a situation where we're going to be more likely to side with pinnacle because you have to think it from from their perspective they also have a reason why they increase their limits .
Like they've probably seen certain people bet and they've seen the market move and they're like okay , now we feel really confident . Like they , they throw out those early limits to just like test the waters and get information . Those are just like when they throw out a thousand dollar limit on a college basketball game or whatever NFL game , whatever it is .
That's really just like throwing like a fishing line in the water . They're just fishing for information . As they start to pull information in , they'll raise the limits and that's when they start taking bets . They start putting some real money behind their opinions and they form those opinions as they see the information come in .
So once they're offering like offering 20 grand bets on a , you know , a side of college basketball they have an opinion now that they feel really , really confident in and that's when we can also feel confident in it . Take that opinion . Go to another book that might feel a little bit less confident .
Right , go to a bet rivers you know someone who's using Camby and they're not really they don't really have a sophisticated data science and trading team behind it to like have opinions . Right , that's when we can go attack there . Go attack your local bookie who you know they haven't moved their number off Pinnacle or whatever . It is right .
So that's kind of a good little overview of how how this all works . And that's and that's really signal . Number one is who's taking the biggest bets ? Because the sharp betters are always looking to be . You know , sharp betters are constrained by time and constrained by to the lesser extent , like , being able to easily move money around .
Right , and they're going to want to get down as much as they can in a short time period as possible . And it's a , because you know , whatever , you don't have a thousand hours in a day , you want to be efficient with your time , you know you want to have a good hourly .
But B , once they start to put their bets out there , they lose control of that information . Other people have their information and they're going to start moving numbers on it , betting themselves on it . There's people at books that they'll see bets come in and they'll bet on that information . That is common practice , right ?
So sharp betters are always getting their stuff leaked when they start hitting the market . So they want to just boom , knock it out as fast as possible in a short time period as possible . So they're going to wait till they can get a big bet down on a couple of the sites .
You know , if they want to get 50K down and they have a strong opinion on something and they're very , very sharp , so they're willing to take the chance at , you know , betting into a closing line , they'll probably wait till there's a couple of books that are taking you know 10 plus K bets and then just hitting it within a minute or two , right ?
Or they're going to do the very sophisticated you know move the line , get a better price , bring it back the other way , et cetera . Not going to get too much into that Because it doesn't really help us to get too paranoid about that .
But the key thing is the more money a book is willing to take , the more confident they are in their opinion and probably the more sharp action they've attracted because they're willing to take a very big bet , so it's attractive . It's a good value proposition for the sharp betters to bet there . The other thing you got to keep an eye on is the market .
How does it react to certain books , right ? Where does the market revert to ? Where is the magnetic pull ? It could be pinnacle or it could be something crazy .
I remember one time for a while this was back in the day , but it was when prize picks had , pretty early on , they were really bad at strikeouts baseball strikeouts and that was just a good spot because they'd be off by like one and a half strikeouts on a player . That's massive .
Each strikeout's worth such a high percent of probability , anyway , and they were very , very bad at it After a while . So what you could do back in the day was you go and bet online , right , when the strikeouts came out on bet online , just bet on one prize picks , free money .
After a while and I was doing this I started to see that the bet online prices moved towards prize picks . I was like this is crazy . This must just be people middling , right , because it's like you're just like . There's no way that prize picks actually has sharper strikeout numbers than bet online .
But I think that it kind of got to a point where prize picks was actually attracting and taking in aggregate more money on their strikeout numbers , because you could take a strikeout number from prize picks thrown into a ton of different combos and get the equivalent of like five grand down on it , whereas bet on line wasn't coming anywhere close to that .
So that was a situation where you have two brands bet on line sharp , smart , prize picks dumb , stupid , like doesn't know what they're doing . But prize picks have made itself kind of a target for sharps and they started to get a ton of information that maybe people weren't betting into bet on line with .
So try not to be too biased with your opinion in Zoombooks . Right , and think about it in terms of where would the sharp betters be going ? Where is their information going ? Part of the way to understand that is just seeing where you can get more money down . The other way is who is like the magnet of the market .
You know who's the market flowing towards the most and usually in that situation that's the sharpest book in the market and it changes . So always be evaluating . It's really hard to remember to do this and I always forget to do this , but it's like I have an opinion .
I'm like this book , they're sharp in this market and that's just how it goes , and I forget sometimes to like question this , and usually it works out fine , because I'm also thinking like they're sharp for a reason they're taking the biggest bets .
You know there's a lot of protection there from me for being like super wrong , but like it's still important to re-evaluate because if you're one of the first people to kind of see another book being sharp or like see that their information might be better than other people think it is , that's a big edge , right , because it's part of sports betting .
People are going to be tailing the sharp books . So the more people tailing the sharp books , the less value it is . If you find kind of a situation where there's a book that people might not proceed to be super sharp , but it actually has decent information and you can use that , that's a good spot , especially if the public perception is pretty low .
So anyway , I think this is important . It's like a blend of DFS and straight betting . This is a little more relevant to straight betting , but it's all the same thing , right , it's all sports betting and it was interesting conversation , so I thought that I would kind of go into depth about it and hopefully it helps to hear that breakdown .
Anyway , I would really appreciate it if you haven't already . Give this a subscribe . We got a great guest coming on tomorrow . It is Halo . He is a 19 year old kid who turned $100 into $100,000 one year , part time betting on sports . It's an amazing story . He's incredibly sharp and you will not want to miss this episode . So that comes out Wednesday .
Please subscribe , get it delivered right to your phone , play it and just learn . I learned from this guy . He's almost half my age , but I'm constantly learning from him , so I'm very , very excited to have him on . Anyway , thanks for listening and I will see you on the next episode .