Set it a lot on this podcast , like you just have to hammer this specific edge as hard as you can because it will not last forever . Like , hey , what's up everybody ?
Gp 13 , back with you with the Saturday episode , which is a little more , I Say it's a little more informal , it's not going to be deep into theory , you know , but we're gonna try and make it quick and Value add , because Saturday's people don't , you know , have better stuff to do .
But 10 minutes here , there , that's what I want to , what I want to hit you with . It was pretty obvious to me what I wanted to do this episode on . I try and make these evergreen .
So , but basically , like a big edge in the DFS space has and this is the DFS pick-up space , which is really just sports betting has been patched like mostly and this is , you know , I'm talking about being able to have fixed payout correlated parlays Sites like underdog prize picks . Right recently underdogs kind of came down .
Underdog really came down pretty hard on players who were correlating their entries and yeah , that's basically it . They've . They've now kind of put the hammer down so hard that it doesn't really Feel like a viable . It's a viable strategy , but it's really for for small potatoes , right . So two things , two things .
First of all , they're giving you , so they're still allowing you to correlate on the entries and , even though you know you're frustrated , you can only bet $20 on NFL . I Don't know , I'd love to come back to this , this podcast , in a couple years and just like One you know being amazed and the fact that underdog would only allow people to bet $20 on NFL .
But no , it's not really shot at at underdog . They have a hard job and I think the right answer for their job was To figure out how to price correlation better , like we had bred on from hot streak , like they're doing , and they're just Not really at that stage where they can do it , and they were losing a lot of money . So they plugged a hole .
Basically , they plugged the hole without really fixing it . Anyway , they're still going to bet $20 . Bet that $20 , right . Do it as much as you can . You're still gonna be able to get a couple hundred dollars down on these correlated Parlays .
And then , if I think they still have them not a hundred percent , sure , but there's stuff that you can still do if you have the time bet it . You know there's Still higher ROI spots for low dollar amount bets .
Those are still good bets because if you think about this , like we were in a space where we're like , oh , it's prize picks like even worth it for us .
You know , betting $400 entry on on prize picks and we could get like a 10k straight bet on you know one of the regular books , right , but our ROI on straights was like four percent or something , five percent heads or something , and which is great that's you know .
Here's where my math sucks 500 bucks and then playing , you know , a $400 entry on prize picks or underdog or whatever it is . When I last checked my underdog ROI was 77% , so it's not that different . You know small bets with our heart , small bets with high ROI's Are just as valuable as big bets with lower ROI's or it's just whatever the EV of the bet is .
So make sure like you don't get lazy because it's a smaller bet amount , because if your edge is huge it's still worth it and if you still have time to do it it's still worth it . Like maybe there's only a few good 10k bets we could take each day . What are we doing for the rest of our time ?
You still want to max out your wins , right , and that's going to be taking all of the opportunities that you can reasonably take . Right , so still take the bets . But the second thing I wanted to talk about was what's next . And look , this was a good strategy .
If you weren't using the strategy or if you're happy that it's gone , I don't necessarily agree with you , but it was clearly a strategy that was going to come to an end and I've said it a lot on this podcast . You just have to hammer this specific edge as hard as you can , because it will not last forever .
If you just got into the space during this DFS boom with Prize Fix and Underdog which probably around this year you'd be getting in , you haven't gone through periods of time where your edge is in the low single digits and that's kind of normal for bigger markets and that's also OK , right , and it's going to feel really really hard to transition to that .
A few things will happen . One you'll go through much longer losing streaks and it's going to be like if you've only played DFS Pickham with ROIs in the 20% plus range , you haven't really experienced what losing is like , and I don't .
It feels like I'm lecturing you , but you really haven't , because if you just pull out if you run 10,000 sims and you comp what your biggest downswings are going to be . When you're betting , pushing a 3% edge , even if it's a lower variance bet too , if you're ripping 30% plus and there's 100 correlated parlays , you can place a day .
There's people who just have never had a losing month and that's awesome . But that doesn't really exist in traditional sports betting . Kind of that we've had very few . If you put in volume and you pick good spots , you can minimize the number of losing months , but it'll still happen .
And I mean playing tournament poker was probably the best thing I could have done , because now nothing seems like a downswing . You barely have a losing month in tournament poker you could have . You could lose for like six months straight . It was terrible .
So one thing I would say is do your best to reset your expectations , because there's still a lot of money to be made and if you think about the compounding effects of having even a 5% edge , they're massive and that's much better than being invested in the market or whatever .
What you can do with a 5% edge is still amazing , and this edge was never going to last forever . You can regret that you didn't blast it . I don't think that necessarily serves you , but you should remember this . So the next time something comes along like this , you step on it even harder . That's the only takeaway . Take that away .
Reset like , okay , I'm going to be winning at a lower rate , that's okay . I'm not going to hit the panic button when I have a long stretch of losses . Totally fine . And you know what ? Maybe there's a ton of these sites that pop up and it's still good for six months or a year . That could also be the case .
But if that's the case , I want to make sure , if that happens , max it out , because now you know that this stuff doesn't last forever and that eventually these books , they get tired of handing out free money , and that's what this was . It doesn't really matter if the edge is easy or not easy .
There's no morality or it's not cool to beat a hard edge and it's lame to click a couple of buttons and win . Click the buttons , win . That's super important . But at the end of the day , what really matters is that you max your value now and then you just reset to the present situation . Handle it as best you can .
So if it means that we get a couple more months of this , hammer it . If this is kind of the end , reset your expectations , go out , hunt for different edges , talk to other betters in the space , ask what they are doing . There's plenty of other ways to win than just fix payout correlated parlance . So , anyway , that's this episode .
Hope everybody has a great weekend and I will see you on the next episode .