This Simple Concept Made us $100k in a Weekend | Episode 15

But if I had , if someone put a gun to my head and said what is the get rich quick scheme of gambling , I would say correlated parlays . Correlated parlays are part of every sharp bettors Arsenal . We actually have used them to make over a hundred K in one weekend . I'll tell that story later in the episode .

But what I want to stress here is , although correlation sound could sound intimidating or confusing at first , it's not really . You don't actually have to know any math really behind correlation To at least use it to make your betting better .

And I'm gonna make sure that I do this episode In a way where you don't have to get out of pen and paper , you don't have to break out your calculator .

I'm just gonna do this way where , if you just listen to this episode , you'll learn enough about correlation that you can take it into your next bets on prize picks , underdog and whatever and use it to get you know your results slightly better . Okay , first we have to define correlation .

Correlation is just a relationship , a statistical relationship between two variables . To put this into plain English , let's do a simple example .

One would say that the height of a child is correlated with the height of the child's parents and , to go deeper into it , that height of the child is what we would call positively Correlated with the height of its parents . That means the hot , the taller the parents on average , the taller the child .

And it's predictive , because if we know the parents height we would be more Accurately able to predict the child's height than if we didn't know the parents height . So that's a situation where the height of a parent is positively correlated with the height of that that parents child . There's also negative correlation . This would be more .

A good example of this would essentially be like price and demand the more expensive something costs , the lower the demand is for it on average . You know I don't I'm not an expert , I'm not an economist , but if you think about negative correlation , it means that as the price goes up , we can predict the demand will drop .

So you can use the price To predict the demand and we know an increase in the price should lower the demand positive correlation , negative correlation . And then , of course , there are situations that wouldn't be correlated at all , like the role of a dice and what the stock market does that day . Those events are not correlated .

So that's just the basics of correlation . And now let's talk about how we can use it in DFS to make more money . I recently wrote a tweet that said the three most important concepts to understand when playing prize picks etc . Are our correlation , implied house odds and correlation .

So the point of that tweet is it's impossible to understate how important correlation is to games like prize picks , underdog and the rest of the DFS pick em platforms . And correlation is so powerful because it's like this magic fairy dust that you can pour over that . You can sprinkle over five shitty bets .

You can bunch them together , sprinkle some correlation over them , put them in a five leg parley and voila , you have a winning bet . It's literally like the opposite of the 2008 financial crisis . To understand how we can use this magic correlation pixie dust we have to understand how parlays work first .

So a parley is the same thing as a power play on prize picks . In a power play , you need to win each player , you have to guess each player's prop correctly for the bet to win . So if you have a four pick power on prize picks and you hit three or four , you lose . It's the same thing as if you hit zero four .

When you're talking about a power or a parley , what's important to keep in mind is that the one thing that you care the most about is winning all of the legs . There's nothing else that really matters . So you want to maximize your chances at winning all of the legs and you don't really care about getting a two out of four or three out of four .

Those don't matter . You just want to hit all four , or you know you can miss all four and that's the same thing as going three for four . So now you might be asking okay , I get it , I want to hit . You know , obviously you want to hit all of your legs on a you know four pick power . You want to hit all four picks .

I know that I've played on prize picks . I know that if I don't hit all four , they take my money . I know , I know that seems so basic , but what I'm trying to first explain is that when we're talking about power plays , prize picks , underdog , anything that's not a flex or insured .

What we're talking about is the only thing that matters is hitting all of the legs , and what you're trying to solve for it's not . You're not even trying to solve for winning each individual leg , you're not . You're trying to solve for hitting four for four on a four X power , five for five on a five X power . You're trying to solve for hitting everything .

And this is where correlation can come in and you know it can aid you beyond your initial research into picks that you think will hit . So I'm gonna give a really basic example now in sports , where this wouldn't even be allowed on prize picks .

But I'm just gonna , I'm gonna give you this example and then we'll dive into my , our big weekend in golf where we use , you know , a little , a little more advanced correlation to really take down Caesar's Palace .

Let's say , prize picks allowed you to bet two players from the same team , right , and you had Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and you , for some reason , patrick Mahomes was offered at over under 0.5 passing touchdowns , and then you had Travis Kelsey over , offered at over under 0.5 , receiving touchdowns .

So for those of you who aren't you know , don't know this Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes are on the same team , mahomes is the quarterback he throws to Kelsey . So basically , every time Kelsey catches a touchdown it's thrown by Mahomes . So you on on their , you know on their own . Let's just say each bet is a bad bet .

So let's say each bet doesn't make money . But let's say prize picks , let's you put them in a two-pick power and if you win you get three times your money . Well , let's say Travis Kelsey is 40% to catch a touchdown , but 100% of the time he catches a touchdown from Mahomes Now he's essentially 40% to catch a touchdown from a home's .

That two-pick power is 40% to hit and it pays out 3x your money . Now that's a great bet and that's the power of correlation within betting . But since that's an option that's not available to us , you have to be a little more imaginative when finding the correlation available .

But this is an example to show you just point blank what correlation can do , and then we'll talk into a little more nuance about how to go and find correlation in the sport you follow or some more subtle forms of correlation . Okay , here's the story about how we won 100k in one weekend just using correlation .

So this was last year actually at this point , and Seizures had just put out golf stroke numbers , and I'm okay to talk about this now , because they do not allow this type of bet anymore . Shocker , they actually stopped allowing it after this weekend .

So what happened was they put out golf score bets so you could bet over or under on the score of a golfer that day . What Seizures also allowed was they allowed you to parlay over and under from those golfers scores together .

So , for example , I could bet Rory McElroy over 68.5 , parlay with John Rohn over 68.5 , parlay , do a third leg , scotty Shetler over 68.5 , and so on and so on and so on . Now why was this valuable to us ? Well , in golf , of course , can play hard , it can play easy . If the wind blows , then everybody's going to play worse .

If there's no rain for a couple days leading up to the tournament , it's firm people are going to play worse . If it rains , people are going to play better . A lot of different things can happen , but essentially in golf , of course , could play hard , it can play easy .

So in this situation we said well , if it plays hard , everybody is going to go have a much higher chance at going over their number . So what happens is , if John Rohn goes over his number .

Well , it's more likely than that Rory McElroy will go over his number , and if those two go over their number , it's even more likely Scotty Shetler will go over his number , because the more people go over their number , the more likely it is . The course is playing hard .

So what we did is I remember sitting there all day just trying to click in as many Parlay as I could , with overs on golf . I think we were doing overs , we might have been doing unders .

I kind of think we might have been doing unders , because I remember we were weirdly rooting for Jordan Spieth to make a birdie somewhere , but he did , and we always lose to Jordan Spieth . But anyway , I remember all day when you see a spot like this . This is kind of a side piece of vice .

When you see a spot like this , you have to just absolutely bury them . These spots , they come around once a year , twice a year . When you find a really , really good spot , you have to be absolutely ruthless and just go in for the kill . So I sat on my computer all day just clicking and clicking and clicking in Parlay .

They would reject , reject , reject , and then they would accept , and then they would reject , reject , reject , accept . I just sat there until the tournament started . All I did was try and bet Parlays and deposit more money into my Caesar's account , everything and of course it turned out really , really well . We won over .

You know , we won six figures that weekend just from these Parlays , and then they cut the bet off . But even though the Caesars isn't taking those bets and even though you might not bet golf , there's probably a situation in the sport that you like where there definitely is , where there's a correlation available .

So I'm going to go over a couple of simple ones and then we'll wrap it up with a little bit of a review . Okay , so football season is here . Football has a lot of correlation . Obvious correlation was like the example we talked about before with Mahomes and Kelsey . Mahomes passing touchdowns are heavily correlated with Kelsey receiving touchdowns .

That also can extrapolate out into passing completions and receptions passing yards , receiving yards the higher of running backs , rushing yards , the lower that running backs , quarterbacks passing yards will be . Wide receivers and quarterbacks on opposite teams have positive correlations in their passing games .

The game of football and I'm not a football expert , but the game of football , as you know , is very intricately interwoven . There's game scripts that you can probably think about , to think about correlation . There's obvious teammates where you have a quarterback throwing to receiver or a running back stealing carries from another running back , whatever it is .

There's a lot of situations in football where you can find these correlations . So what I would do if I'm you because there is a way to quantify correlation , but that's not what this episode is about what this episode is about is about how to use it . To just bump that extra , give yourself that extra little edge .

How I like to do it for football and this is a good example , because I am not a football expert , I'm not a football handicapper , whatever . So this is what I like to do in football is I'll find some lines that are off on the DFS sites from a book like Pinnacle , and what I'll try and do is I'll try to find lines that are off and correlated .

So I know that I have two things working for me and once I feel like I have those two working for me , I feel comfortable enough putting the slip in for the NFL and then going from there . So I'm not as confident in just looking at Pinnacle and saying , oh , this is a good play . But if I can get both Pinnacle and correlation . Put them together .

Now look here , I am a golf better , but I can profitably bet on NFL . This also goes for basketball Players .

Three points might be , you know , or players points might be correlated with their point guards , assists , rebounds probably negatively correlated , like if you have two centers , one center's rebounds will be negatively correlated with the other center's rebounds on the opposite team , something like that .

There's plenty of more situations I don't even know about because I , you know , I am a golf specialist at the end of the day , but correlations allow me to kind of get out and Find edges on other sports without having to model them , and that's what you know , without going into depth of our correlation .

That's what we can take away today and just immediately add to our DFS pick-up game . I hope that was a good overview of correlation and how it can help you in your game . I do think right now , correlation is probably the biggest weakness these sites , like prize picks

, have . So if , if this episode interested you and you want to hop in the discord , ask some more questions about how we would calculate correlation with golf or you know more in-depth , more in-depth discussion , please feel free to do so .

But what I , what I hope this episode did is gave you some actionable steps you can take Literally this week with whatever sport you like to bet on , and just give yourself that extra edge , add that extra tool to your toolkit . So , anyway , happy , happy to share this lesson with y'all . Please hop into the discord again .

Like I said , we're having a blast in there and it's growing every day . It's a hundred percent free and we're giving out picks , advice , just general community vibes . So hop in , join us and , yeah , I'll see you on a later episode . You .